Monday, October 27, 2008

IC Rankings - Week 10

Here are the IC Rankings for Week 10. IC stands for initial condition, which is a term used in differential equations. The initial condition has a large effect on an equation's solution, and that is what we are testing for with these rankings. I've long felt that the way the College Football rankings are conducted are inherently unfair. Teams are ranked the first week, based on their reputation, name, or assumed predicted standing and subsequently ranked week to week with heavy weighting on the most recent week's performance. These rankings started teams in reverse order from my computer rankings from last year (speaking of which, I still haven't decided whether to do those. If i do, it will primarily be to check for conference strength). They proceed to go week by week using the same trends I've observed for several years in the human polls.

This week, Texas finally moves into the #1 spot after a big win over #5 Oklahoma State. Tulsa, who trailed at half time tonight and was the reason for the late rankings, slips to #2 while Alabama holds serve in the #3 spot. Penn State's victory over #9 Ohio State jumps them to fourth, while Utah, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Ball State, Oklahoma State, and Florida round out the top 10.

Entering the rankings this week are USC, fresh off a win over previously #14 Arizona; Florida State; North Carolina; Connecticut; and BYU.

  1. Texas (2 last week)
  2. Tulsa (1 last week)
  3. Alabama (3)
  4. Penn State (7)
  5. Utah (5)
  6. Minnesota (6)
  7. Texas Tech (11)
  8. Ball State (10)
  9. Oklahoma State (5)
  10. Florida (15)
  11. Boise State (16)
  12. Oklahoma (19)
  13. Georgia (25)
  14. Ohio State (9)
  15. Michigan State (18)
  16. Notre Dame (21)
  17. South Florida (12)
  18. Northwestern (8)
  19. TCU (24)
  20. USC (NR)
  21. Florida State (21)
  22. LSU (17)
  23. North Carolina (NR)
  24. Connecticut (NR)
  25. BYU (NR)
You can start to see how these rankings are converging with the human polls with Texas taking over the #1 spot and Alabama and Penn State also claiming spots in the top 5. The cool part about these rankings is that there tends to be a lot of jumping around to correct itself. It is very easy to shoot up quickly when there are teams who are playing over their heads ranked highly.

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