Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Final Elias Projections - NL Starting Pitchers

Below are the National League Starting Pitchers. I've gone through and double checked the disabled list time and have them all down to within a few days. Because it depends on whether or not the player was placed on the DL before or after the game, there are likely some inconsistencies. When adjusting player's DL spots by a game or two, a player would gain as much as two percentage points in the final rankings. Because of that, I cannot guarantee that players on the borders, such as Jamie Moyer and Randy Johnson are in the correct group.

A review of how these were calculated.
  • All pitchers on a National League roster or disabled on August 31 are eligible.
  • Pitchers are classified as a starter or reliever based on how they were used more frequently in the 2007 and 2008 seasons combined. Also, players with no games played are counted with the starters.
  • Statistics used are the totals from the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
  • For all counting statistics, there is an adjustment for missed time based on days spent on the disabled list.
  • The statistics used are: Total Games (Games Started+.5*Games Relieved), Innings Pitched, Wins, Winning Percentage, ERA, and Strikeouts.
  • Each player is ranked in each of the categories, with the leader getting the maximum amount of points and the last place player in the category getting zero.
As an example, let's look at leader C.C. Sabathia.
  • With his 69 total games, Sabathia ranks second behind Aaron Harang (71.34). Sabathia gets 94 out of 95 possible points.
  • Sabathia, with 494 innings, led NL Starting pitchers. He gets the maximum 95 points here.
  • Totaling 40 wins, Sabathia led all NL Starting pitchers. That's 95 more points.
  • Sabathia's 40-17 record puts his winning percentage at .679. This ranks behind Rich Harden (.733), Edinson Volquez (.731), Tim Lincecum (.714), and Brandon Webb (.702). He gets 91 out of the possible 95 here.
  • Sabathia's impressive 2.95 ERA over the past two years wasn't enough to lead this pool of players. Rich Harden (2.12), Josh Geer (2.67), Jake Peavy (2.68), Chris Volstad (2.88), and Johan Santana (2.92) were able to better him. Sabathia gets 90 out of 95 points for ERA.
  • Finally, Sabathia was able to get the maximum 95 points for strikeouts after leading these players with 460.
Total these numbers up (94+95+94+91+90+95), and you get 559 out of a possible 570. That's 98.070 percent of possible points, and 98.070 is Sabathia's projected Elias score.

Here's the rest:
C.C. Sabathia A 98.070
Brandon Webb A 96.140
Cole Hamels A 92.281
Danny Haren A 90.965
Roy Oswalt A 90.614
Johan Santana A 90.526
Jake Peavy A 88.070
Ted Lilly A 87.544
Tim Hudson A 85.965
Carlos Zambrano A 83.509
Tim Lincecum A 81.579
John Maine A 79.649
Aaron Harang A 78.947
Ben Sheets A 78.596
Adam Wainwright A 77.544
Oliver Perez A 77.105
Derek Lowe A 75.088
Jamie Moyer A 73.246
Aaron Cook A 72.895
Kyle Lohse B 71.491
Bronson Arroyo B 71.228
Joe Blanton B 70.088
Chad Billingsley B 70.000
Brad Penny B 68.333
Jeff Francis B 67.544
Doug Davis B 67.368
John Smoltz B 66.316
Chris Young B 65.000
Matt Cain B 64.737
Randy Wolf B 64.737
Greg Maddux B 63.772
Jeff Suppan B 63.596
Braden Looper B 62.719
Rich Harden B 62.368
Wandy Rodriguez B 62.281
Edinson Volquez B 61.842
Ricky Nolasco B 59.561
Todd Wellemeyer B 59.561
Randy Johnson
Jason Marquis
Ian Snell
David Bush
Paul Maholm
Barry Zito
Scott Olsen
Livan Hernandez
Ubaldo Jimenez
Tom Gorzelanny
Jair Jurrjens
Kyle Kendrick
Tom Glavine
Odalis Perez
Jorge De La Rosa
Joel Pineiro
Noah Lowry
Yovani Gallardo
Orlando Hernandez
Mike Pelfrey
Manny Parra
Tim Redding
Jay Bergmann
Chris Volstad
Josh Fogg
Josh Johnson
Hiroki Kuroda
Cha Seung Baek
Jorge Campillo
Josh Geer
John Lannan
Jonathan Sanchez
Zach Duke
Brandon Backe
Andrew Miller
Pedro Martinez
Shawn Hill
Johnny Cueto
Sergio Mitre
Yusmeiro Petit
Chris Capuano
Chad Reineke
Felipe Paulino
Mike Hampton
Jo-Jo Reyes
Anibal Sanchez
Chris Carpenter
Shawn Estes
Phil Dumatrait
Collin Balester
Burke Badenhop
Jeff Karstens
Jason Schmidt
Mark Mulder
Tim Stauffer
Jason Vargas
Scott Mathieson
Mark Prior

Free Agent
Free Agent with option

Since the last time I posted this group of players, Kyle Lohse has signed an extension and Jamie Moyer has ridden a 4-0 September to projected Type A status. As I've already mentioned, Moyer's status is a bit tenous. He's well within the margin of error and could actually qualify as a Type B. I'd put his chances of a type A around 90% or higher.

This is a Tigers blog afterall, so what does this all mean for the Tigers? Certainly, the Tigers will be in the market for a starting pitcher this offseason. Among the free agents on this list, Sabathia will most certainly be offered arbitration and probably be re-signed. If not, he has proven himself to be worth the second round pick. The 5-7 year commitment and 8 digit salary may be a bit of a stretch.

Ben Sheets is next on the list, but his recent elbow injury throws a wrench into things. It's doubtful he gets the contract he was looking for and may not get offered arbitration.

Oliver Perez is a shaky pitcher and probably isn't worth the second round pick if offered arbitration.

Derek Lowe hails from Michigan, so he will probably get a look. If the Dodgers offer arbitration, I don't think he'd be worth the pick. While the 3.24 ERA is nice and shiny, bear in mind he's been facing National League West opponents all year. That's over 90 innings against the Diamondbacks (10th in the NL in Runs Scored) , Giants (15th), Padres (16th), and Rockies (8th). Throw in the difference in league strength, and I could see Lowe posting an ERA north of 4.5 with the Tigers if he is signed. For the money he will likely demand, no thanks.

Jamie Moyer is another guy who isn't worth the draft pick, but could fill the Kenny Rogers role. You've gotta love the thought of a one-year commitment, especially after the Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson contract disasters.

I'll go through some of the Type B's and sleepers in the future, but the appeal of most will depend on their cost.

1 comment:

Patrick said...

Why is it that such a large percentage of free agent pitchers are from the NL? I guess most of the big money clubs are in the AL. That, together with the fact that the AL uses the DH, is what makes the AL lineups so much more powerful. I'd expect a drop off in performance from any player- but especially a pitcher- coming from the NL to the AL.

I would sincerely hope that the Tigers do grab at least one new starting pitcher, and I don't mean Freddy Garcia. The current cast of characters has proven beyond a doubt- from the second half collapse in 06, through 07 and again to the last place finish in 08, that they are not the rotation of a playoff team. Expecting for a rebound year from Verlander is reasonable. But hoping for the first ever good full season from Bonderman AND a repeat performance from Galarraga, AND a miracle from two of Robertson, Miner, Garcia, and Willis, is just foolish, IMO.

That, and a whole new bullpen is required to put the Tigers into the post season in 09.