Scanning the System: Third Base

Most people have heard the old saying "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect." Is there such a thing as a third base prospect? Looking at Tigers' third basemen in recent past, you'd have to say the answer is a big resounding "No!" Carlos Guillen, currently manning the position, came up as a shortstop. Miguel Cabrera even was signed as a shortstop, and stayed there until just prior to reaching the major leagues. Brandon Inge was a catcher, converted from shortstop. Eric Munson was a catcher, who was converted to first base, who then converted to third base. Even Travis Fryman was brought up as a shortstop and was only moved to third base to accommodate the greatest shortstop in team history. There is no doubt that the Tigers lack third base prospects, but it is probably true that if you want to look at who may be manning the hot corner in the future, that player may not be there right now. Now, a look at all of the third basemen.

Detroit:

Carlos Guillen, 32
Actual: .284/.364/.426
Expected: .263/.344/.405

Brandon Inge, 31
Actual: .221/.322/.368
Expected: .263/.357/.410

Carlos Guillen's defensive woes have been very transparent, but his offense has tailed off significantly since last summer. He's at the age and physical condition where decline seems probable. Keep an eye out. Brandon Inge would be in the lineup if he hit more. Instead, he's one heck of a utility man.



Toledo:
Mike Hessman, 30
Actual: .288/.377/.699
Expected: .257/.351/.668

Only 51% of Hessman's plate appearances end up in play. Between all of the homers, walks, and strikeouts, the Tigers have the perfect incarnation of Rob Deer. Except this Rob Deer can play a mean third base. If Sheffield ever goes onto the DL, Guillen to DH and Hessman to third base would be an intriguing short term move.

Erie:
Kody Kirkland, 24
Actual: .200/.280/.280
Expected: .210/.288/.290

Max Leon, 23
Actual: .291/.417/.326
Expected: .251/.307/.186


Kirkland has fallen off of a cliff, if he had climbed a cliff. He's really fallen down the steps... okay, down a step. Now in his third year at Erie with disappearing power, it appears as if Kirkland has reached the end of the road. Leon's a utility guy who counts as a third baseman using my system. He's a solid upper level utility guy, nothing more.


Lakeland:
Michael Bertram, 24
Actual: .295/.353/.390
Expected: .228/.294/.323


Santo De Leon, 24
Actual: .282/.282/.394
Expected: .155/.155/.267


Louis Ott, 23
Actual: .293/.327/.391
Expected: .260/.296/.358


Nothing to see here.


West Michigan:
Ronnie Bourquin, 23
Actual: .217/.320/.310
Expected: .132/.249/.225


Roger Tomas, 22
Actual: .324/.378/.426
Expected: .236/.305/.338


Kody Kaiser, 23
Actual: .286/.345/.438
Expected: .245/.311/.400

So Bourquin has effectively been passed by an undrafted middle infielder. On top of that, he's been playing some first base. Not only can he not hack it at the plate, fielding seems to be a challenge as well. If the book hasn't closed on Mr. Bourquin yet, he will soon. Tomas and Kaiser are nice utility guys who probably are destined for the minor leagues.


VSL Tigers:
Fernando Martinez, 17
Actual: .231/.286/.231
Expected: .193/.250/.193

There has been some hype around Martinez. The VSL season is just a week old, so it's far too soon to jump to negative conclusions with him. Watch scouting reports over numbers at such low levels. It's hard to get an accurate read of performance.

Overall, the Tigers don't have much in the way of third base prospects. Hessman looks like he could fill in if needed, but after that things are barren. Have no fear, though, as third basemen can often come from other positions.

The True Cost of a High Payroll

A common response to a big contract's criticism usually goes something like this: "It's not your money." This is true. The owner is the one giving out the big contracts, and it is his money. Even in these times when baseball is swimming in money and owners can afford pretty much any contract, there is a cost to an expensive team. This is no more evident than it is with the Detroit Tigers right now.

Not only do you have to pay players several million dollars, players with large contracts are also veterans who cannot be sent to the minor leagues. A team is required to be patient with these players while young, cheap players can be sent out when they are struggling. When marginal players get big time deals, you lose roster flexibility.

Take the case of Gary Sheffield. He's now hitting below .200 without much power to speak of at all, as a designated hitter. Even though he's had shoulder and finger problems, because he is an expensive veteran, he apparently has the authority to stay off of the disabled list? Sheffield is, in my opinion, a Hall of Famer. Over the past 20 years, he has been one of the best players in the game and an underrated performer across the board. The simple fact is that he is not getting the job done right now. While this would normally be acceptable; Mike Hessman, Jeff Larish, Michael Hollimon, and others would probably be outperforming him right now. Toledo's roster is simply overflowing with offensive firepower right now.

How about Armando Galarraga? He's been the best pitcher in the Tigers' rotation this season. For all of the critcism that has been unfairly lumped on him for not being able to go deep into games, he still owns 31% of the team's quality starts, and is the only Tigers starter giving up less than an earned run every two innings. Now, he's the one leaving the rotation and presumably the team to make room for the supposedly healthy Dontrelle Willis. Why is Galarraga on his way out? A rotation full of expensive veterans can't be broken up, regardless of whether or not they deserve it.

Just remember the next time you say "It's not my money." It is your team, and your team suffers when potentially poor veterans are signed to large deals.

Oh Those Double Plays

They don't show up any differently from a routine out in batting average and OPS. You can't find them in strikeout/walk ratios, and any look at a box score will not show any demerits for grounding into a double play unless you think to look in the section below the batters' statistics. Yet, double plays are inning killers. Those that watched the eighth inning of last night's game saw Magglio Ordonez bounce into a double play, transforming the inning from a first/second with nobody out situation to a runner on third with two outs. According to the win expectation charts, the Tigers' chances of winning dropped from 32.1% to 11.4%.

The Tigers' batters seem to be grounding into a lot of double plays, but I wanted to quantify this observation and see if it was really a problem. Baseball Prospectus calculates several statistics for double plays. Double Play Percentage, calculated by dividing the amount of double plays by the amount of double play opportunities, is one of the statistics. The denominator is the key here: double play opportunities. A double play opportunity is a situation where a runner is on first base and there are less than two outs. While totaling up double plays and dividing by at bats would be nice, a player who always bats with two outs isn't going to be hitting into a lot of double plays.

I checked all players with at least 50 plate appearances, and the highest Tiger was Magglio Ordonez at 24.1%, good for 34th in the Majors. While no players are standing out, the Tigers' team double play rate of 15.7% is second to the Blue Jays in the Major Leagues. Here's a list of all of the Tigers with at least 50 PA:

Ordonez 24.1%
Jones 23.1%
Sheffield 22.6%
Rodriguez 19.2%
Cabrera 18.8%
Guillen 18.2%
Renteria 16.2%
Polanco 9.5%
Inge 5.6%
Thames 0%
Granderson 0%
Thomas 0%

It's a bit troubling when one of your big RBI guys is topping this list, but Ordonez hit into double plays at a more acceptable rate of 14.7% last season. If there was any doubt about Sheffield's problems making solid contact, his double play rate has risen from 7.8% last season to 22.6% this season. Curtis Granderson is probably the team's best at avoiding double plays. He posted a 6.1% last season, and has a big goose egg so far. Ordonez and Sheffield will have to improve their double play rates if this offense is going to start clicking.

Odds and Ends

• There has been a lot of Jeremy Bonderman discussion. Thanks to the wonderful Fox/MLB Saturday Afternoon blackouts, I was unable to watch Saturday's game. Jim Price seemed to notice a blatant mechanical flaw with Bonderman in the first inning. Clearly, things have not been right with him. I said before the season to watch his fastball velocity and the sharpness of the slider to see if he's healthy. Neither of those pitches are optimal, and it turns out his fastball command has been an even bigger issue. I'm not convinced his injured elbow healed with rest. It's pretty clear he's not himself. Given Bonderman's history of concealing his elbow problems, a decline of pitch quality and repeated mechanical flaws may be all the Tigers will have to go on before it's too late. My hope is that they are proactive with this, even if it means an Eddie Bonine getting a couple of starts.
• The Mudhens have the top three hitters in the International League and four of the top six hitters according to equivalent average. Mike Hessman and his 14 homers have him in first place, followed by the resurgent Brent Clevlen and Jeff Larish. The now promoted Matt Joyce places sixth on this list. On the surface this is good news, but it can highlight some flaws.
• If you have several players dominating in AAA, their performance is simply going to waste. While there are only so many roster spaces, these guys are doing no good beating up on International League pitching.
• This shows the problem of having a high payroll team. The players simply can't be shuffled in and out. If Gary Sheffield was a rookie making the league minimum, his performance to date wouldn't be tolerated and would have been sent to Toledo a long time ago.
  
• The good news is that there is some offensive depth. I disagreed with a lot of the preseason assertions that the Tigers have a depth problem. It's pretty clear by looking at the current bench and the reserves in AAA that the Tigers should be able to withstand some injuries (when the player doesn't try to stubbornly play through them, killing the team in the process).
  
• How can the Tigers go about utilizing some of this depth? As I've already alluded to, placing Gary Sheffield on the disabled list would free up one roster spot. He's just not a good player when he's trying to play through these injuries. Marcus Thames is also starting to look like a redundancy, and it may make sense to ship him out for some pitching depth. Mike Hessman is earning an opportunity to help the team. I also think that Jeff Larish could solve a lot of these left-handed bat issues.
  
• The Venezuelan Summer League kicks off today. It's hard to preview the league, given that there is very little information out there on most of the players. I just wanted to alert those who follow the minor leagues that there is a new batch of players to track.
  

Another Player Development Milestone

I've mentioned the Tigers' new Venezuelan development program, which started roughly around 2006, when they started fielding a Venezuelan Summer League team. While signs of improved depth are sure to come, there was a small milestone today, as pitcher Mauricio Robles, 19, was added to the West Michigan Roster. Robles becomes the first VSL Tigers alumnus to make it to a full season team's roster. More notably, Brandon Hamilton also was promoted to West Michigan. Hamilton, also just 19, spent the first month of the season in Extended Spring Training after an oblique injury. He was the Tigers pick in the supplemental round of last year's draft.

In a related move, Luis Marte has been promoted to Erie. This is a guy who will shoot up the prospect charts this season. Could he get a look with the big league club if things go well?

Scanning the System: Shortsops

Luck plays a large role in hitting. Take the case of Matt Joyce this week. Monday night with the bases loaded, he roped a line drive down the right field line, only to end up in the glove of J.D. Drew. Two days later, he starts a game-winning rally with an infield single on a bouncer to the shortstop. This won't happen in other sports. In basketball, good shots will go in more often than bad shots. In golf, a good putt will go in more often than a poor one. In auto racing, the fast car will always beat the slow car. Meanwhile, in baseball, a well-hit ball can be hit right at a player, while a slow roller off the end of the bat can result in a hit. This is what I am talking about when describing "luck," and the point of this series is to try and filter out that luck from the performances of players in the minor leagues. For an explanation of what everything means, see the post on catchers.

Detroit:
Edgar Renteria, 32
Actual: .280/.307/.380
Expected: .348/.371/.454

Renteria will always be judged way too harshly, so long as Jair Jurrjens keeps pitching well for Atlanta. Mack Avenue Tigers had a nice post on the trade. As far as his performance goes, his batting line is mediocre to date, but a superb 27% line-drive rate suggests great things to come. So far, this series has correctly projected steps forward from Placido Polanco. I'd expect the same of Renteria, although the line-drive rate could be a fluke as well.

Toledo:
Derek Wathan, 31
Actual: .261/.307/.348
Expected: .337/.376/.424

Erick Almonte, 30
Actual: .296/.419/.535
Expected: .366/.476/.605

Two more guys with ungodly line drive rates are waiting in the wings in Toledo. These two minor league veterans don't project to be anything more than emergency utility men, but don't expect them to cool down.

Erie:
Danny Worth, 22
Actual: .281/.344/.421
Expected: .193/.266/.333

Despite hitting line drives less than half as frequently as the above three shortstops, Worth is having more balls in play fall in has hits. Simply put, he's been lucky so far, and this will only help to cement his status as most overrated Tigers' prospect.

Lakeland:
Cale Iorg, 22
Actual: .270/.328/.468
Expected: .261/.320/.460

Shawn Roof, 23
Actual: .327/.391/.400
Expected: .218/.297/.291

Iorg started very hot, but has cooled off since. Amidst his cold streak, he was suspended for an undisclosed reason. For a guy who took two years off, his start so far will do the trick. It's no big surprise that Roof is a flash in the pan. The hope is that the organization doesn't start putting too much stock in him. I doubt they will.

West Michigan:
Audy Ciriaco, 20
Actual: .227/.262/.320
Expected: .217/.252/.310

"Raw," "inconsistent," "tools"... These are words that you hear to describe Ciriaco. Patience will be key with him. If he has the talent that scouts say he does, it will be worth the wait.

The shortstop situation on the farm is one to watch this season. With Edgar Renteria's $13-million option looming, having a legitimate option to replace him could be important, especially if the team's unexpected struggles start to wreak havoc on their financial situation. While I'm not one to root against a player, my hope is that Danny Worth quits getting breaks and his overall numbers start to show his real performance. If he fools the organization and is thrust into a big role, he could disappoint like the overachieving Tony Giarratano did.

How About That?

Backs against the wall and facing their sixth straight loss while facing the league's best closer, the Tigers scrape out a victory. I'm typically very hard on the follies "small ball," but sometimes you need to scrape one out. After Matt Joyce reached on an infield single, Edgar Renteria reached on an error by Julio Lugo. This set up one of the few situations where a successful sacrifice bunt actually increases the batting team's chances of winning a game. (It may be an optimal strategy at other times, but only because of the likelihood of an accidental single or fielding error.) After Pudge got the bunt down, Curtis Granderson made contact getting the tying run home to tie the game at 9-9. This set up Placido Polanco's fifth hit of the game: a broken bat bloop single just over Lugo's head. It will be tough to predict where the team goes after this one, but the win helps to avoid what could have been a demoralizing loss after blowing and 8-4 lead in the late innings. If you are going to pull one out against Papelbon, that is the way to do it. Frankly, anything to make "Red Sox Nation" suffer a painful loss is enough for me.

Tigers Break into Asian Market

Baseball America is reporting the Tigers have signed Taiwanese outfielder Chao-Ting Tang. This is the first amateur player the Tigers have signed from Taiwan.

Some information on Tang, an outfielder, can be found at the following links:
http://taiwanbaseball.blogspot.com/search/label/chao-ting%20tang
http://taiwanbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/04/enter-tigers.html
http://www.allamericangames.com/AABG/Past_All-American_Baseball_Game.htm

Based on the links, I'd put Tang's age around 20, as he played on high school all-star teams two years ago. The Tigers' increased international presence will only help the team going forward. We haven't even begun to see the results of the new facilities in Venezuela over the past two years. I wouldn't expect to see him anywhere until the short season teams start in June, but it will be exciting to see how he develops.