Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Final Elias Rankings - American League Catchers

As a warning, you will know less after reading this post than you did before. I'll start by posting the rankings. I wouldn't put any stock at all into Rodriguez, Zaun, and Olivo's status without reading on.

Name Type Total Score
Joe Mauer A 88.940
Victor Martinez A 88.479
Jorge Posada A 83.410
A.J. Pierzynski A 78.341
Jason Varitek A 76.037
Ivan Rodriguez A 72.350
Ramon Hernandez B 71.889
Dioner Navarro B 70.046
Mike Napoli B 67.281
Kurt Suzuki B 65.438
Kenji Johjima B 64.516
Gregg Zaun B 57.604
Miguel Olivo B 57.604
Kelly Shoppach
Gerald Laird
Mike Redmond
Rod Barajas
John Buck
Dave Ross
Jamie Burke
Jose Molina
Jeff Mathis
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jeff Clement
Rob Bowen
Kevin Cash
Toby Hall
Shawn Riggans
Guillermo Quiroz
Sal Fasano
Dane Sardinha
Vance Wilson

So, Ivan Rodriguez overtook Ramon Hernandez for the final Type A spot...

or did he?

Let's take a look at how Rodriguez and Hernandez arrived at their rankings.

  • For days on the disabled list, Pudge spent seven days on suspension while Hernandez had two stints last year that I have adding up to 39. Therefore, for Rodriguez each counting stat will be multiplied by (364/357) and for Hernandez (364/325).
  • In plate appearances, Hernandez finished with 1019.2 and Rodriguez with 955.4. Neither of them are close to anybody else, so I am certain that Hernandez will get 28 of the possible 31 points here while Rodriguez will get 26.
  • Moving on to home runs, I have Hernandez in ninth place with 26.9, behind A.J. Pierzynski (27.1), John Buck (27.2), and Jorge Posada (27.5). It would take three more DL days for Hernandez to make up the ground on Pierzynski. If I miscounted on those days, Rodriguez and Hernandez would be tied. For now, I have Hernandez picking up 23 and Rodriguez 19 here.
  • On to RBI's, where Hernandez's 142.2 is good for third (29/31) among catchers. Rodriguez, meanwhile is in the middle of a pack. At 99.9, he is just a shade behind Kenji Johjima's 100 and just above Mike Napoli's 99.4. With one more suspended day, Rodriguez would overtake Johjima. With two less, Napoli would overtake him. I've got Napoli at the assumed limit of 60 days, so if I handled that part of the adjustment incorrectly, Napoli could be overtaking Rodriguez there. For now, Rodriguez gets 22 points for RBI's.
  • To batting average, where the DL adjustment doesn't matter. Hernandez hit .258 (18/31) while Rodriguez hit .279 (25/31).
  • OBP also has no dependence on the missed time adjustment. Hernandez got on base at a .315 clip (19/31) while Rodriguez only posted a .303 mark (17/31).
  • Now to fielding percentage, which is only counted at the catcher's position. Rodriguez put up a .993 mark, good for 13th (19/31 points), while Hernandez put up a .989 rate (12/31).
  • Finally, we go to assists. Again, only assists accumulated at catcher count towards the rankings. Pudge, at 110.1 ranked third among the pool of players for 29 of 31 points. Hernandez, at 99.68 finished fifth behind Pierzynski (100.3) and above Mathis (99). For Hernandez, it would have taken two more days on the disabled list to have overtaken Pierzynski.
In total, Rodriguez's score is (26+19+22+25+17+19+29)/(7*31) or 72.350% (157/217). Hernandez got (28+23+29+18+19+12+27)/(7*31) or 71.889% (156/157).

Hernandez was just one point behind Rodriguez. To summarize where he could have made up those points.
  • With three more days, Hernandez could have passed Pierzynski in home runs.
  • With Mike Napoli getting more than 60 days for his DL adjustment, thereby overtaking Ivan Rodriguez.
  • With Rodriguez losing two days off of his missed time adjustment for suspensions, Napoli would pass him in home runs.
  • Finally, with two more days on the DL Hernandez would pass Pierzynski in assists.
Two of those things need to happen in order for Rodriguez not to be Type A, as if they are tied they would both be in the top 20 percent. It's a similar situation for the Type B guys, as any adjustment in one guy's DL Time could cost them Type B status. For Rodriguez, I am about 80-90% sure he will be a Type A. If you are curious about Olivo or Zaun, I would wait until the actual rankings come out and ignore this. All I can say is that at least one will be Type B, but can't conclusively give a reasonable answer there.

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