Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Final Elias Projections Preview

I'm still in the gathering stages of the final Elias Projections, verifying DL data and positional data for all players. Because the National League ended Sunday, I have a bit of a head start on players in the senior circuit and will probably be posting those first. Bear in mind when I post these that the projections I am posting are estimated. There is still a lot I need to learn about how these rankings work, so some things may be off. When I do post, position by position, I will make special care to point out possible points of error. Use these rankings as a guideline, but do not come back complaining when somebody I had on the A/B border was projected incorrectly. If they are wrong, I promise to find what was wrong and make it better next year.

Now, I've gotten a lot of questions on what exactly "reasonable certainty" means with regards to the disabled list adjustment. I found an article from 1997, detailing how Bernie Williams was ranked above Ken Griffey Jr. that year. Here's what it said.

Among 42 outfielders who qualified for consideration for 1996-97, with statistics prorated to compensate for time missed to injury, Griffey ranked first in home runs (112.41), second in RBI (307.26), 13th in batting average (.304), and 12th in on-base percentage (.387).

By comparison, Williams, who spent two stints on the DL this season, ranked 10th in home runs (58.33), but was fifth in RBI (235.67), fifth in batting average (.316), and sixth in on-base percentage (.399).

I don't want to go too far into detail, but for those who want to figure it out on your own, I will help you out. In the 1996-97 seasons, Griffey had 105 HR and 287 RBI while Williams totaled 50 HR and 202 RBI. In trying to figure out how they arrived at the adjustment, use days (not games) on the DL and look for a common numerator between the two numbers. Now, as to how bereavement, suspended, and minor league time is handled? It's hard to tell. I am looking forward to the actual rankings coming out so I can compare and perfect my model.

Finally, a big thanks to Baseball Reference. I saw the "Do you rely on B-R? How about a shout out at the end of the year?" message on the top of their page. I've relied on their data heavily for this and other projects and haven't given them the shoutout they deserve. It really is an incredible reservoir of baseball information.

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