Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Final Elias Projections - NL Relievers

I wanted to have more of these posted by now, but I haven't had much time to work on them. With excuses out of the way, the NL Relievers are next. Once again, I will give the caveat that being one or two days off on the disabled list time can completely throw off these rankings. They will not be 100%. One other potential source of error I just caught deals with the winning percentage of players with no record. I have assumed them to be .000, but they could be .500. If they are .500, that would drastically affect the rankings of any player with a losing record. Guys with losing records near the bottom of each tier include Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman. Meanwhile, players like Joe Biemel and Arthur Rhodes would be unaffected with their winning records and could be the beneficiary of such an adjustment. Before showing the rankings, let's show how they are calculated to help alleviate any questions.
  • All pitchers on an active roster or disabled list on August 31 are eligible.
  • For the reliever rankings, pitchers who relieved more games than they started in 2007 and 2008 combined are included. Pitchers with no games count as starters and are not eligible.
  • Statistics used are totals for the 2007 and 2008 season.
  • For all counting stats, there is an adjustment for days missed on the disabled list.
  • The stats used for relievers are Total Games (Games Started*2+Games Relieved), Innings Pitched, Wins+Saves, Winning Percentage, ERA, IP/Hits, and Strikeouts. Note that Innings receive just 75% of the weight of the others.
  • Each player is ranked in each of the categories, with the leader getting the maximum amount of points and the last place player in the category getting zero.
  • The total score the percentage of possible points attained by the player.
As an example, let's take a look at how in the world Doug Brocail ranks as a Type A free agent.

Before going into his stats, Brocail missed 20 days on the disabled list last year. This means that each of his counting statistics will be multiplied by 364/344 or 1.05814 to adjust.
  • Brocail appeared in 139 games, all in relief, over the past two seasons. Multiplying by the adjustment, he comes out to 147.1 total games. This ranks 22nd out of the 150 relievers, getting him 128 points.
  • He proceeded to have 145 1/3 innings. Multiplied by the adjustment, this comes out to 153.8 innings. This is good for 32nd. The 118 points he would receive are adjusted and multiplied by .75. He gets 88.5 out of the possible 111.75.
  • Here you will start to see the biggest flaw in this ranking. Brocail finished up with 12 wins and two saves, totalling 14. Multiplying by the adjustment, he gets credited for 14.8: good for 36th place and 114 points.
  • Winning percentage is next. Before going into Brocail's winning percentage, can I point out how ludicrous it is to count this stat? Is a reliever racking up wins really practicing a skill? It's really just a matter of if they happen to be in a game when the offense decides to put some runs on the board. Sometimes they get so lucky that they can blow the lead and be on the hill when the offense takes the lead back. If we are rewarding relievers for doing that, we know what was suspected before anybody tried to figure out these rankings. They are crap. Anyways, Brocail put up an impressive 12-6 record with a winning percentage of .667. He is in a massive tie for 23rd with Clay Condrey, Jack Taschner, Doug Waechter, Cory Wade, and Alex Hinshaw. They share the 23rd through 28th place points and get 124.5 points apiece for winning percentage.
  • Brocail put up a solid 3.47 ERA, but it was only good for 50th place among the pool of relievers. This gets him 100 points for ERA.
  • With 129 hits allowed in 145 1/3 innings, Brocail had 1.13 IP/H, 51st best among relievers. He gets 99 points here.
  • Finally, Brocail had 107 strikeouts, prorated to 113.2. This was the 46th best total among relievers, good for 104 points.
Brocail's final score is equal to (128+88.5+114+124.5+100+99+104)/(6.75*149), or 75.367.

This total is good for 13th place among all relievers, well within the top 20 percent who attain Type A status. You may notice the projected cut for A/B status is 67.338. That is quite low compared to other positions, which tend to be in the mid 70's. Looking at the categories, you can see why. It is very easy for several players to put together a few dominant innings and dominate ERA and IP/H. Meanwhile, players who spent some time starting will rack up the innings and strikeouts, as evidenced by Ryan Dempster, Brett Myers, and Chad Gaudin loading up the innings and strikeouts. Total games will be dominated by LOOGY's who face one batter a game, while wins+saves will be run primarily by closers. Those closers, though, don't get that big of a boost because non-closers can still rack up 120 points in that category. Whereas C.C. Sabathia almost ran the table, it is very difficult to do so given the categories used for relievers. Finally, I'm done blabbing, here are the rankings:

Name Type TotalScore
Brad Lidge A 89.361
Carlos Marmol A 86.329
Heath Bell A 85.334
Takashi Saito A 83.743
Ryan Dempster A 83.520
Russ Springer A 81.929
Juan Cruz A 81.929
Jose Valverde A 79.319
Jonathan Broxton A 78.822
Billy Wagner A 76.709
Kevin Gregg A 75.665
Chad Qualls A 75.466
Doug Brocail A 75.367
Brian Fuentes A 75.242
Matt Capps A 74.969
Jon Rauch A 74.621
Ryan Madson A 73.726
Francisco Cordero A 73.478
Jared Burton A 72.956
Manuel Corpas A 72.086
Kerry Wood A 72.036
John Grabow A 71.688
Tony Pena A 71.066
J.C. Romero A 70.694
Jesus Colome A 68.804
Aaron Heilman A 68.084
Taylor Buchholz A 67.785
Jason Isringhausen A 67.711
Ryan Franklin A 67.487
Carlos Villanueva A 67.338
Joe Beimel B 67.064
Jeremy Affeldt B 66.617
Peter Moylan B 66.592
Luis Vizcaino B 66.542
Chad Durbin B 66.020
Chad Gaudin B 65.896
Rafael Soriano B 65.896
Scott Proctor B 65.051
Saul Rivera B 65.026
Brett Myers B 64.802
Salomon Torres B 64.753
Pedro Feliciano B 64.715
Brian Shouse B 64.529
Bobby Howry B 63.932
Jason Grilli B 63.659
Dave Weathers B 63.560
Joe Smith B 63.336
Tim Byrdak B 63.311
Rudy Seanez B 62.864
Tyler Yates B 62.665
Trevor Hoffman B 62.043
Joel Hanrahan B 61.322
Eric Gagne B 61.049
Matt Lindstrom B 60.900
Renyel Pinto B 59.906
Buddy Carlyle B 59.682
Chris Sampson B 59.558
Hong-Chih Kuo B 59.060
Joe Nelson B 59.060
Brandon Lyon B 58.091
Arthur Rhodes
57.992
Geoff Geary
56.997
Sean Marshall
56.351
Brian Wilson
55.829
Chad Cordero
55.580
Brad Thompson
55.232
Logan Kensing
55.208
LaTroy Hawkins
55.058
Brian Moehler
54.661
Cory Wade
54.064
Guillermo Mota
53.443
Scott Eyre
52.871
Will Ohman
52.523
Mike Gonzalez
52.250
Mark Hendrickson
52.125
Henry Owens
51.255
Sergio Romo
51.106
Kevin Correia
50.907
Manny Acosta
50.733
Cla Meredith
50.659
David Riske
50.584
Matt Herges
50.584
Jeff Bennett
50.186
Justin Hampson
49.863
Luis Ayala
49.515
Edgar Gonzalez
48.869
Clay Condrey
48.720
Seth McClung
48.185
Jack Taschner
48.049
Steven Shell
47.502
Tom Gordon
47.030
Mike Adams
46.408
Duaner Sanchez
46.085
Alex Hinshaw
46.085
Chris Perez
45.911
Jeff Samardzija
45.464
Tyler Walker
44.867
Bill Bray
44.693
Lee Gardner
44.494
Merkin Valdez
44.320
Julian Tavarez
44.146
Ambiorix Burgos
44.096
Brett Tomko
43.873
Wesley Wright
42.381
Ryan Speier
40.989
Scott Schoeneweis
40.691
Doug Waechter
40.418
Ron Villone
40.393
Chan Ho Park
39.398
Kent Mercker
36.987
Tyler Johnson
36.776
Wilfredo Ledezma
36.565
Jon Lieber
35.943
Keiichi Yabu
35.521
Nick Masset
34.526
Tony Armas
34.054
Max Scherzer
33.060
Matt Wise
32.314
Denny Bautista
32.115
Josh Kinney
31.718
Kyle McClellan
29.058
Mike Lincoln
28.909
Glendon Rusch
28.163
Ramon Troncoso
27.716
Billy Sadler
27.542
Sean Burnett
26.821
Blaine Boyer
26.199
Garrett Mock
25.354
Nelson Figueroa
24.534
Charlie Manning
24.509
Brian Stokes
24.459
Mike Zagurski
23.788
Jason Davis
23.714
Clay Hensley
22.719
Vladimir Nunez
22.645
Neal Cotts
21.626
Angel Guzman
18.543
Chad Fox
17.425
Brian Falkenborg
16.281
Dick Hayhurst
16.157
Elmer Dessens
14.653
Gary Majewski
14.044
Jason Johnson
12.702
Osiris Matos
11.285
Harvey Garcia
10.142
Francisco Rosario
9.993
Jesse Chavez
4.300
Marco Estrada
3.505
Scott Elbert
2.361
Yhency Brazoban
2.138

Free Agent
Free Agent with Option
Released

From the Tigers standpoint, I'd honestly steer clear of most of these guys. It is just so much easier to pitch in the National League, even for relievers who don't get to face other pitchers. Between the interleague disparity and plenty of American League pitchers who went to National League clubs and started dominating, there is enough evidence to show that the National League is just weaker. Whether it's Sabathia and Harden pitching flawlessly or Tigers' castoffs like Tim Byrdak, Jason Grilli, and Chad Durbin finding a home there, you have to account for league strength before picking anybody up from the other league. I just don't think the second round draft pick is worth giving up for any of the Type A guys.

3 comments:

Patrick said...

Beimel, Affeldt, Torres, and Weathers are all worth going after, IMO, for the Tigers. We need help in the pen. Serious help- as in overhaul. If DD settles for Will Ohman, I will say Oh man! That's a bad Omen! Sorry, but true.

Anonymous said...

Aaron Heilman is a Type A free agent?

hahahahahahahahahaha

Omar Minaya would think he hit the lottery if he got 2 draft picks for Heilman.

Steve said...

Heilman isn't a type a free agent. He won't be a free agent for two more seasons.