Offseason Transactions/Eligibilities

This list will continue to be updated throughout the course of the offseason, with a log of transactions. Service time is displayed as (yy.ddd), and taken from the Tigers' website when applicable.

Open 40-Man Roster Spots: 2

Filed for Free Agency: Players who have already filed for Major League free agency.
11/3: Edgar Renteria (12.143) (Signed: San Francisco)
11/3: Kyle Farnsworth (9.100) (Signed: Kansas City)
10/30: Freddy Garcia (9.013) (Signed: New York Mets)
10/31: Vance Wilson (8.028) (Signed: Kansas City)
11/3: Casey Fossum (6.119) (Signed: New York Mets)
11/5:Kenny Rogers (20.000) (Retired? Still not official)

Refused Assignments: Players who were removed from the 40 man roster for at least the second time in their career can declare free agency after the season if they are no longer on the 40 man roster.

Francis Beltran (San Francisco)
Francisco Cruceta (Korea)
Gary Glover (Washington)
Dane Sardinha (Re-signed)

Arbitration Eligible: Players currently on the 40-man roster and DL not under contract for 2009 with at least three years of service and less than six years of service. I am assuming the "Super Two" cutoff will be 2 years, 128 days.

Justin Verlander (3.002)^

Avoided Arbitration:
Fernando Rodney (5.137): 1/$2,700,000
Bobby Seay (4.118): 1/$1,300,000
Marcus Thames (4.108): 1/$2,275,000
Ramon Santiago (4.095): 1/$825,000
Gerald Larid (4.077): 1/$2,800,000
Edwin Jackson (3.070): 1/$2,00,000
Joel Zumaya (3.000): 1/$735,000

Non-Tendered:
Aquilino Lopez

Minor League Free Agents: Players not previously listed are eligible to declare for free agency if they spent six years (at least 30 days) on a professional roster prior to 2008 and aren't on a 40 man roster. The following players have declared free agency.

P
Yorman Bazardo (Philadelphia)
Danny Christensen (Re-signed)
Luis Gil
Jeremy Johnson (Houston)
Blaine Neal (Philadelphia)
Ian Ostlund (St. Louis)
Orlando Perdomo

C
Max St. Pierre (Re-signed)

IF
Erick Almonte (Chicago Cubs)
Caonabo Cosme
Kody Kirkland
Derek Wathan

OF
Pedro Cotto
Freddy Guzman (Seattle)
Timo Perez (Re-Signed)

Released: The following players have been released from the organization.
P
Dario Carvajal
Angel Castro (Signed by Chicago Cubs)
Kelvin Cedano
P.J. Finigan
Hayden Lackey
Santo Mieses
Kyle Pearson
Derek Witt
Danny Zell

C
Brandon Harrigan

IF
Carlos Ramirez

OF
Luis Arlet
Justin Justice
Cory Middleton
Hayden Parrott

Gary Sheffield

Outrighted:
Eddie Bonine

Macay McBride

Added to 40-man Roster:
Alfredo Figaro
Guillermo Moscoso
Wilkin Ramirez
Zach Simons
Casper Wells

Drafted in Rule 5:
Kyle Bloom (Pittsburgh)

Returned After Rule 5:
Kyle Bloom (Pittsburgh)

Lost on Waivers:
Virgil Vasquez (Boston/San Diego/Pittsburgh)

Lost in Rule 5:
James Skelton (Arizona)

Traded:
Guillermo Moscoso (Texas)
Carlos Melo (Texas)
Matt Joyce (Tampa Bay)

Rudy Darrow (Atlanta)

Acquired:
Gerald Laird (Texas)
Edwin Jackson (Tampa Bay)

Josh Anderson (Atlanta)

Minor League Signings: The following players have been signed as minor league free agents. This includes players who were re-signed upon declaring minor league free agency. Amateur international free agents aren't included.

P
Ron Chiavacci
Danny Christensen
Jon Huber
Mike LaLuna
Chad Linder
Ruddy Lugo
Jason Miller
Travis Phelps
Kris Regas
Nick Regilio
Juan Rincon
Pat Stanley
Scott Williamson

C
Charlie Lisk
Dane Sardinha
Max St. Pierre

IF
Yurendell de Caster
Don Kelly

OF
Alexis Gomez
Bronson Sardinha
Beau Torbert

Free Agents Signed:
Adam Everett: 1/$1,000,000
Matt Treanor: 1/$750,000
Brandon Lyon: 1/$4,250,00

The Organizational Age+ Team

Age+ is a statistic I invented this week. It's so simple that I'm pretty sure somebody else has invented it at some point. It's a measure of how old a player is in relation to their level. What I do is take the league average age for the league the player is in and divide it by the player's age on July 1. I multiply by 1000 to get a nice round number, and it suddenly looks similar to OPS+. If a player has played at multiple levels, their league average age is a weighted average of each level they've played in. A value above 1000 means the player is younger than the level, while a value below 1000 shows that the player is older than his competition. Before showing the results, I want to show the average ages for each league in the Tigers' system to note what these numbers mean:

American League: 29.2, 28.7
International League: 27.4, 27.4
Eastern League: 24.6, 24.7
Florida State League: 23, 23.3
Midwest League: 21.7, 21.7
New York Penn League: 21.5, 21.4
Gulf Coast League: 19.7, 20.6

The first number after each league is the average age of batters in the league, while the average age of pitchers follows. The most notable gap to me is the difference of almost three years between AAA and AA. When looking at prospects, our intuition tells us that if one player is a year older and a year ahead, they have roughly the same age relative to level. The three year jump between AA and AAA may make us rethink that assumption. While the level may be regarded as similar on a talent level, AA does prove to be the end of the road for many players as they suddenly have to compete for jobs with AAA veterans. For this reason, a player who succesfully moves up from Erie to Toledo will likely stand out a little bit more. We are seeing this with several players who were at roughly the league average age last year in Erie and are now part of a young Toledo/Detroit core. The other surprising result is the small difference between the Midwest League and New York Penn League. This undoubtedly has to do with the fact that many top prospects out of high school are pushed to full season ball, thus skipping shortseason A ball. Make no mistake: the Midwest League certainly has more talent and is a more difficult league. Young players in AAA and the Majors will certainly be favored in this, as they should be. These are the guys who have passed the tests in a timely manner. I should also point out that I did not have DSL and VSL average ages, so those players have been left out of this analysis. Bear in mind that actual production is not factored into this equation at all.

Now that we have gone over that, I will present the All Age+ Team:

C-Joseph Bowen 1041
1B-Miguel Cabrera 1158
2B-Michael Hollimon 1059
3B-Brett Anderson 1105
SS-Danny Worth 1081
LF-Wilkin Ramirez 1060
CF-Clete Thomas 1144
RF-Matt Joyce 1167
DH-Brent Clevlen 1116

Bench:
C-Dusty Ryan 1032
CI-Jeff Larish 1075
IF-Max Leon 1061
OF-Hayden Parrott 1068

Starting Rotation:
SP-Rick Porcello 1194
SP-Yorman Bazardo 1145
SP-Justin Verlander 1130
SP-Jade Todd 1127
SP-Mauricio Robles 1123

Bullpen:
Joel Zumaya 1158
Richard Zumaya 1105
Zach Miner 1084
Freddy Dolsi 1069

Extra Starters in the bullpen:
Jeremy Bonderman 1116
Matt Hoffman 1100
Brandon Hamilton 1099

Did I mention performance didn't matter? That's about the only way you will see the 2008 version of Yorman Bazardo on any list with Rick Porcello. In the case of Hollimon, he is the only 2B in the organization who is actually younger than his competition. This is a far cry from last year when he was a man among boys in Erie. This just goes to show the difference between a 26 year old in AAA and a 25 year old in AA. Not many people may have heard of Brett Anderson: this year's 10th round pick who has yet to turn 18.

As for players who you may want to think twice about before getting too excited about their performance, here is the Lowest Age+ Team?

C-Ivan Rodriguez 798
1B-Fernando Seguignol 819
2B-Aldin Carrithers 834
3B-Carlos Guillen 891
SS-Brent Dlugach 778
LF-Timo Perez 825
CF-Freddy Guzman 961
RF-Magglio Ordonez 848
DH-Caonabo Cosme 857

Bench:
C-Keith Hernandez 825
CI-Jordan Lennerton 881
IF-Derek Wathan 869
OF-Pedro Cotto 888

Starting Pitchers:
SP-Kenny Rogers 657
SP-Jordan Tata 821
SP-Matt O'Brien 900
SP-Alfredo Figaro 905
SP-Ben Fritz 906

Relief Pitchers:
Todd Jones 713
Nick Martin 823
Orlando Perdomo 853
Aquilino Lopez 855
Luis Gil 878
Dario Carvajal 888
Rudy Darrow 890

Perdomo and Dlugach stand out because they are on rehabilitation assigments right now. Most of the other players on this list are either veterans on the big league club or non-prospect filler. Alfredo Figaro is a guy who has pitched very well in West Michigan, but may get a bit too much credit for doing so.

Overall, the Tigers have several more players below 1000 than above. This is probably the direct result of four straight college heavy drafts, which have littered every roster Erie and below with players older than their opponents. While this may sound like a poor strategy, without drafting mostly college players in 2005, the team probably wouldn't have gotten contributions from Clete Thomas, Jeff Larish, Michael Hollimon, and Matt Joyce this year. Each of those players, because they successfully made the jump to AAA, were able to transition from too old to younger than average. Unfortunately, the 2006 draft doesn't look to make as strong of a contribution to next year's team.

Today's Lineup; Gary Sheffield; Chris Lambert

Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera DH
Joyce RF
Thames LF
Larish 1B
Rodriguez C
Santiago SS

I was a bit curious what today's lineup would look like. They wouldn't call up Larish only to have him ride pine. It looks like he is up to possibly spot Cabrera in the field. This does mean less playing time for Gary Sheffield, who may need the part time treatment to stay fresh. Santiago gets to play shortstop while Renteria is out with a mild hamstring strain.

Speaking of Sheffield, it's amazing how close to a nothing for nothing deal his acquisition from the Yankees has become. While Sheffield was fine through last July, he has had little to no production since that time. Unlike the players used to acquire Renteria, there has been little to no griping about the Yankees' package.

• Humberto Sanchez, who was already suffering with arm problems before the trade, underwent Tommy John Surgery right away. He's finally showing up in the box scores in the Gulf Coast League on rehabillitation assignment.
• Kevin Whelan would be the next logical centerpiece, but now he is out with elbow problems. I haven't found word that this is anything serious, but the fact remains that he hasn't progressed very far since the trade.
• Anthony Claggett is sort of the last man standing. Turning 24 next week, he's in AA for the Yankees, and is the type of guy who will need some breaks to crack the big leagues.

Given the struggles of Sheffield, it's tough to classify the Tigers as winners of the deal, but so far it appears as if they are.

On a completely unrelated note, take a look at Chris Lambert's recent starts in Toledo:

Jul 7: 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Jul 2: 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 5 K
Jun 27: 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Jun 22: 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K
Jun 16: 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K
Jun 11: 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K
Jun 5: 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K
May 31: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K
May 26: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K

Now, consistency is the word most overused by baseball analysts in part because they don't define the time interval of consistency. Do they mean consistent from pitch to pitch? Consistent from month to month? Game to game? Year to year? That's an important distinction that is never made, which leads me to believe that it is just lazy analysis.

That said, Chris Lambert's last nine starts have been far from a model of consistency. With the exception of his June 11 and 16 starts, Lambert has alternated good-great starts with terrible outings. As a contender for the fifth starter spot after the All Star break, Lambert's inability to pitch consistently from start to start could be what keeps him from getting that shot.

Biggest Clutch Hits So Far

What have been the ten biggest clutch hits for the Tigers so far this year? By win probability added, according to fangraphs, these have been:

June 28, vs. Col, Miguel Cabrera 2B +0.653
June 26, vs. Stl, Gary Sheffield HR +0.468
April 14, vs. Min, Ivan Rodriguez 3B +0.442
June 12, vs. Chw, Miguel Cabrera HR +0.414
May 6, vs. Bos, Placido Polanco 1B +0.368
July 9, vs. Cle, Miguel Cabrera HR +0.361
June 26, vs. Stl, Clete Thomas BB +0.337
June 25, vs. Stl, Carlos Guillen HR +0.333
June 29, vs. Col, Dane Sardinha 3B +0.322
April 15, vs. Min, Miguel Cabrera HR +0.312
June 30, vs. Min, Matt Joyce 3B +0.310

The first thing that stands out to me is that all of these hits have come at home. Because you are automatically increasing your team's chances of winning to 1.000, it is easier to pad your WPA statistics with walk-offs, but despite that, the team seems to be coming up big in the clutch at home. Given all the flack he's gotten, I love seeing Miguel Cabrera's name on the list four times. Dane Sardinha's triple may end up being his only career extra base hit. It is one that won't be forgotten, as I was furious at the time that he was allowed to hit in that situation. Between Polanco's flair against Jon Papelbon and Clete Thomas's walk-off walk, we have two of the more unique endings to games this season, while Thomas would not have been in the opportunity to walk home the game winning run if Gary Sheffield hadn't tied the game in the ninth. There have been plenty of big at bats where the team has come through this year. Here's to there being more in the coming months.

Bonine Out

Two transactions happened right after today's game. The obvious one was the return of Brandon Inge, with Dane Sardinha being shipped out. I haven't seen the official release, but by my count Sardinha is out of options, and this would mean he was designated for assignment. This is probably moot. He'll clear waivers.

The other swap involves tonight's starter Eddie Bonine, with Jeff Larish getting the call from Toledo. Because of the all star break, a fifth starter isn't needed for almost two weeks. There is time to make a decison on the fifth starter. Is Aquilino Lopez stretched out? Will it be Zach Miner? What about the resurgent Virgil Vasquez, or teammate Chris Lambert? My first reaction was a tandem between Lopez and Casey Fossum until Lopez was completely ready to join the rotation.

Bonine wasn't ready for the bigs. His first three starts were masked by the fact that they were against Colorado (3.79 RPG on the road), San Diego (3.67 RPG at home), and Los Angeles (4.33 RPG on the road). In short, his two solid starts were against very weak opponents, and American League competition proved to be a bit much for him.

Jeff Larish returns, presumably as an extra left-handed bat. As Gary Sheffield has started to struggle of late, he may get a few of his starts against lefties, giving Jim Leyland all sorts of lineup options. Larish did play three games at third base in his stay at Toledo, but it is doublful he'd be asked to play there except in an emergency.

Perry Signs; More on Dontrelle

As has been reported all over the place today, first round pick Ryan Perry signed for slot money. The most significant part of today's releases would seem to be that Perry appears headed for a September call up. With this, the Tigers now have locked up each of their first 17 draft picks. 18th rounder Scott Weismann, a high school pitcher out of Massachusetts is the highest pick left unsigned. Of the players who have signed, here are their current assignments:

Ryan Perry: Lakeland (soon)
Cody Satterwhite: GCL Tigers
Scott Green: West Michigan
Brett Jacobsen: West Michigan
Alex Avila: West Michigan
Tyler Stohr: Oneonta
Jade Todd: GCL Tigers
Andy Dirks: West Michigan (DL)
Anthony Shawler: Oneonta
Robert Weinhardt: Lakeland
Brandon Douglas: Oneonta
Brett Anderson: GCL Tigers
Jered Gayhart: Unassigned
Tyler Conn: Oneonta
Thad Weber: West Michigan
Rob Waite: GCL Tigers
Alden Carrithers: GCL Tigers
Ben Guez: Oneonta
Adam Frost: GCL Tigers
Mike Gosse: Oneonta
Carmelo Jaime: Lakeland
Billy Nowlin: Oneonta
Brent Wyatt: Oneonta
David Stokes: Oneonta
Keith Stein: West Michigan
Tyler Weber: Oneonta
Trevor Feeney: Oneonta
Mark Sorensen: Oneonta (DL)
Jordan Lennerton: GCL Tigers
Bryan Pounds: Oneonta
Steve Gilman: Oneonta
Nick Cassavecchia: GCL Tigers
Jordan Workman: Oneonta

Note that the highest drafted pitcher to start most of his games so far this year has been Thad Weber (16). While plenty of the players drafted early were thought of by many as relievers, I wouldn't take this as a sign that they aren't going to be tried out as starters, but instead as a sign that the team is taking it easy on arms that may have been overworked in school.

Dontrelle:
The first thing I wanted to do on the Dontrelle front is apologize to those close to the situation who may have read or heard about the post from Monday. After looking back, the tone was a bit too strong for something that was clearly speculative. Assuming an ACL tear based on the information those on the outside have is going too far. I am glad they took him to get checked out, and who am I to say that they should have done it earlier when they may have in fact done so? In fact, upon reading up on patellar tendinitis, it appears as if cortisone shots are prescribed sort of as a last resort if other treatments haven't been working for several months. Perhaps he was diagnosed with this problem back in May and it went unreported.

That said, the way in which Willis has been handled can be described as peculiar. It's not known if a sore knee is affecting his loss of control, but from the outside it seems that his knee should be 100% before taking the mound again. If knee pain is standing in the way of him repeating his mechanics, it makes no sense to have him continue to regain his control while his body won't allow him to.

Patellar Tendinitis

http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2008/07/update-on-dontrelles-knee/

DTW is reporting Willis has been diagnosed with patellar tendinitis. While it's a relief that something serious wasn't found, the fact that he is still having problems in his knee three months after the original injury is troubling. Here's what the Mayo Clinic says about the recovery of patellar tendinitis:

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/patellar-tendinitis/DS00625/DSECTION=treatments-and-drugs

The conservative approach to treating patellar tendinitis aims to reduce the strain on your tendon and then gradually build up the tendon's strength. Your doctor may suggest several techniques to accomplish this, including:

• Rest. Rest doesn't mean giving up all physical activity, but avoid running and jumping. Your doctor can suggest other ways of staying active without stressing your damaged patellar tendon. It's especially important to avoid any activity that gives you pain.
• Adjusting your body mechanics. A physical therapist can help you learn to better distribute the force you exert during physical activity. For instance, an athlete who jumps frequently might learn proper takeoff and landing techniques.
• Stretching your muscles. Inflexible muscles, especially inflexible thigh muscles (quadriceps), contribute to the strain on your patellar tendon.
• Strengthening your tendon. A physical therapist may recommend specific exercises to strengthen your patellar tendon and the muscles around it. Exercises can also help strengthen your quadriceps. A specific type of exercise for strengthening the quadriceps called eccentric strengthening has been shown in some studies to help treat and prevent patellar tendinitis. This strengthening exercise involves lowering weight slowly after raising it, such as a seated knee extension exercise.
• Patellar tendon strap. A strap that applies pressure to your patellar tendon can help to distribute force away from the tendon itself and direct it through the strap instead. This may help relieve pain.
• Massage. Massaging the patellar tendon may help encourage tendon healing.

If you've recently developed patellar tendinitis, you can expect at least several weeks or months of conservative therapy before you'll be able to fully resume physical activity, including jumping. If you've re-injured your patellar tendon, the time for healing may be even longer.

And the causes?
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/patellar-tendinitis/DS00625/DSECTION=causes

• Intensity and frequency of physical activity. Repeated jumping is most commonly associated with patellar tendinitis. Sudden increases in the intensity of physical activity or increases in frequency of activity also put added stress on the tendon.
• Being overweight. Additionally, being overweight or obese increases the stress on the patellar tendon, and some research suggests that having a higher body mass index may increase the risk of patellar tendinitis.
• Tight leg muscles. Reduced flexibility in your thigh muscles (quadriceps) and your hamstrings, which run up the back of your thighs, could increase the strain on your patellar tendon.
• Misalignment of your leg. The way your leg bones line up could be off slightly, putting strain on your tendon.
• Raised kneecap (patella alta). Your kneecap may be positioned higher up on your knee joint, causing increased strain on the patellar tendon.
• Muscular imbalance. If some muscles in your legs are much stronger than others, the stronger muscles could pull harder on your patellar tendon. This uneven pull could cause tendinitis.

Dontrelle and His Knee

Since the moment he slipped off the mound that rainy night in Chicago, I have suspected that Dontrelle Willis has been suffering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). Now that he is going back to Detroit to have his knee examined again, I'm going to finally do what I've been wanting to do for a while: show why I've thought that.

First, we need some background information on the ACL and what it does. Believe it or not, wikipedia is a great resource for the human anatomy. We need to know first that the ACL is a ligament, and ligaments attach two bones together. In the ACL's case, it connects from the back of the femur (thigh) to the front of the tibia (shin). It's main job is to provide stability to the knee by preventing the tibia from sliding to far forward. One of the more common mechanisms for an ACL injury is a hyperextension of the knee.

I have long felt that the hyperextension caused the ACL in Dontrelle's right knee to tear. Unfortunately, I am not privy to his medical information or any internal information the Tigers have. I also only have the lessons learned from a Mechanicl Engineering dgree and a semester's worth of human kinetics under my belt. I am pretty interested in this stuff, but I don't consider myself the expert of the people who made the decisions regarding Willis, nor do I have all of the information about what was done to check his knee. I just know things have been fishy.

For a normal pitcher, the ACL is not stressed during pitching. Plenty of players in several sports have played through an ACL injury. Tiger Woods comes to mind, after playing for a year with a torn ACL. While he won several tournaments on the bad knee, he also had meniscus damage and a double stress factor in his knee that developed, probably as a result of the loss of stability in the joint. Unfortunately, Dontrelle Willis is not a normal pitcher. His leg kick seems to act as a timing mechanism. If anything is off in that knee, his timing well be too. This would seem to explain his inability to repeat his mechanics over the past few months.

The initial diagnosis of a hyperextended knee was, in a word, fishy. The hyperextension is what happened on the mound, but I don't see how an MRI can confirm that when an instant replay simply shows that. At that point, I assumed it was something worse until Willis proved otherwise.

Then came May when Willis was recalled from his rehab assignment as a precaution. There are contradictions in the article:

...Willis said he didn't re-injure it and that it's just a precaution.

"They want to make sure everything's OK," Willis said, "because they don't want me to go out there and hurt myself further and be out for three months."

...The play in question came in the first at-bat of the game. Willis fielded a ball along the third-base line and fired a throw to first off his left leg. According to reports, he seemed to be favoring the leg as the game went on.

So he was favoring his knee the whole game, but didn't re-injure it? If you say so. The worrisome part, apart from the blatant dishonesty, is when the play happened: a ground ball down the third base side when Willis likely pivoted on his right knee, thereby making a play where an okay knee

Then came the return, when Willis could not control where the ball was going against Cleveland. His landing was timid, his mechanics were off, and I did notice a slight limp in between pitches. If the Tigers seriously thought his knee didn't warrant a test at this point, I don't know what to say.

Finally, I want to show the dagger: photographic proof of his tibia translating too far in the posterior direction, courtesy of Roger Dewitt:


That just looks hideous. The lower leg is clearly extending past the knee. I will be shocked if Willis doesn't have at least a torn ACL. This time, I will not believe the Regardless, he needs to be shut down for a long time.

If this had been properly diagnosed three months ago, what could have been prevented?

• I have no idea the mental effect pitching on a bum knee must have on Willis. With a motion that is so dependent on timing, will he ever be able to rediscover his mechanics? Will he ever be able to trust his knee during the landing motion?
• Further knee damage? Think about any household object. When one piece breaks, other pieces will break because the broken piece is not giving the support it once did. Pitching so long on a torn ACL would cause the knee to do things it shouldn't. Just look at the picture above and imagine what else could be wrong. The tibia seems to be rotated too far to the inside, could his MCL be in peril as well? I don't even want to know what effect this could be having on his meniscus.
• The credibility of the Tigers' Medical staff has been tarnished, but more on that later.

Please, anybody with better credentials who wants to tear me apart. Feel free.

Golf + Politics = Unrelated

Condoleezza Rice was just in the booth at this week's PGA Tour tournament in Washington, DC. I am not going to pass judgement on her or anybody in the current administration, but according to the Washington Post, she said this during the interview:

As the CBS producers shushed the rest of us, Rice told Verne Lundquist how big a fan she was of his, and how she watches him every Sunday she can.

Now, that is a very diplomatic thing to say and sounds great, but there is one problem. Verne Lundquist rarely does golf (only the Majors), and is only announcing this week because the normal announcer, Jim Nantz, is missing this week for his father's funeral. Lundquist typically only does the Masters and PGA Championship.

In short, Rice was lying. She can't watch Verne every Sunday, because he's not on every Sunday. Politicians tend to do that, and if you can play Devil's advocate and scrutinize most things they say, you can make your informed decisions this year.

(Steps off soapbox)

Is Jim Leyland using FIP?

Inspired mostly by Lee's discussion on FIP, I decided to check out how the Tigers' pitchers are doing in this regard. I noticed very quickly that Casey Fossum (2.64) was second on the team in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), possibly suggesting that the early struggles were about of bad luck? Most people have been chastising the Tigers for sending out the likes of Denny Bautista (5.18), Francisco Cruceta (5.68), and Zach Miner (4.46) while Fossum remained on the team. Could it be that Jim Leyland is using a sabermetric tool like Fielding Independent Pitching to make roster decisions? Now, if I could figure out why team leader Clay Rapada is a Mud Hen...

Link Dump and Other Things

I've wanted to plug this site for a while, but since it's not a Tigers' site I haven't had a reason to. Padres' Assistant GM Paul Depodesta, formerly the GM of the Los Angeles Dodgers, has a blog for interaction between the front office and fans. He had a post yesterday about his memories of Tiger Stadium. It's a nice reflection on his visits to Tiger Stadium. The rest of the site is pretty cool too, and I'd check it out. It's an insightful look to the inner workings of a baseball front office. Now if we could get somebody with the Tigers to do this...

Billfer noticed that the Tigers' pinch hitters have been pretty special this year. Then again, I don't know why he would need me to link his site, as anybody stopping by this blog has already read his.

Matt at Take 75 North took a look at Michael Hollimon at shortstop. I happen to agree that he needs to get as much time as possible there just in case he emerges as a cheap alternative to the flailing Edgar Renteria next season.

Pathetically linking myself, I didn't feel like giving this it's own post, but in response to somebody claiming that the Tigers should have drafted more first basemen as insurance for Cabrera, I went and checked at what position each of the league's firstbasemen were signed.

Curtis Granderson blogs about stealing bases.

Poor Chris Snyder... Ouch! Perhaps he should have used the Nutty Buddy.

Interleague Disparity

The American League dominated Interleague Play again this year, winning 149 of 261 games. Playing against the National League has no doubt fueled the Tigers each of the past three years, save for a few games one October. I have heard and read plenty of explanations as to why this disparity exists, but way too many of them tip toe around the true answer: The American League has better players.

You may remember the first two months of the season. Run scoring was way down in the American League. Guys simply weren't hitting. Lineups with nine professional hitters per lineup were being outscored by the lineups from the other league with eight professional hitters and a designated bunter. Through May 22, Jack Cust's .888 OPS was good for fifth in the American League. Something wasn't right. The prevailing sentiment was that the talent had finally shifted from the American League to the National League. Then the leagues started playing eachother.

American: 4.58, 4.47, 4.96
National: 4.45, 4.55, 4.02

Those are runs per game averages for each league. From left to right, this shows the total runs scored per game this year, the runs scored per game within the league, and the runs scored per game in interleague games. You can see that the American League has surged ahead in runs scored over the past month, but you can also see that more runs are being scored in games where neither team has the designated hitter. Then you have the fact that the American League has completely trounced the National League in Interleague play this year. The American League scored about half a run per game more against National League teams than they did against themselves, while the National League scored about half a run per game less. This seems to suggest that it is much easier to score runs against National League teams than American League teams. It also suggests that despite the offensive struggles of the first two months, the American League still has better hitters than the National League.

One possible reason I have been hearing a lot, especially on XM 175, is the designated hitter rule. The theory is that American League teams are better built for interleague play because they are putting a real hitter out to DH instead of a bench player. This would seem to make sense, and looking at the American League's DH splits against the National League's, you can see that American League DH's do indeed hit better.

American League: .248/.334/.419 (BA/OBP/SLG)
National League: .242/.314/.402

So, the American League seemingly has an advantage here, but did it help them in interleague play, when American League teams have to bench their designated hitter when visiting National League parks?

American League w/ DH: 5.13 runs per game
American League no DH: 4.80 runs per game
National League w/ DH: 4.25 runs per game
National League no DH: 3.80 runs per game

The American League teams scored .33 runs less per game during Interleague play in National League parks, while the National League scored .45 runs more per game in American League parks than at home. I'm not quite sure what to make of that other than the National League does benefit fairly significantly from the designated hitter, thereby suggesting that this probably doesn't have nearly as much of an effect on the American League dominance as superior talent.

While interleague play has it's flaws, one of it's main benefits is that we have an easier time comparing the two leagues. While National League apologists will try to come up with justification for why this is, we know the truth. American League teams simply have better hitters, better pitchers, and better fielders.

All numbers were gathered from baseball-reference.com, with the home/road interleague splits derived from the game logs.

Toledo's Lineup Tonight

Freddy Guzman LF
Timo Perez DH
Mike Hessman SS
Jeff Larish 3B
Brent Clevlen CF
Matt Joyce RF
Fernando Seguignol 1B
Erick Almonte 2B
Max St. Pierre C

I was taken aback by this lineup. I read somewhere that Leyland wanted Larish playing in places other than first base. I assumed if Larish ended up at third, Hessman would be at first. I'm curious how Hessman and Larish played on the left side of the infield, as both are being challenged defensively.

What is there to lose by doing this? Maybe the team will give up a few more hits, but guys blocked by incumbents need to be able to play multiple positions to secure a bench spot in the future.

Jones As Magglio

I thought this was hilarious. The only video out there is this low quality video on Youtube. It's worth posting. For those that didn't see, it was Todd Jones during the rain delay impersonating Magglio's Game 4 walkoff shot.

Scanning The System - Starting Pitchers, Pt. 1

As much as I would love to use the same formulas for pitchers as I did for position players, line drive rate wasn't available for pitchers. Instead, I will list traditional statistics such as innings pitched, ERA, walks, home runs, and strikeouts, while also showing the pitchers' ground ball rates, FIP ERA, and in most cases, their opposing BA/OBP/SLG split when available. Most statistics came from http://firstinning.com . The production splits come from minorleaguesplits.com, but were only available for the players' most recent affiliate.

The pitchers will be divided into six parts. The higher levels will include Detroit, Toledo, and Erie. Lakeland, West Michigan, and Oneonta comprise part 2. The GCL, DSL, and VSL teams will round out the pack. I'll run through starting pitching first and then relief pitching. Today, we'll look at the starting pitchers at the upper levels.

Detroit:
Justin Verlander, 25
97 IP, 4.55 ERA, 36BB, 62K, 9HR
.239/.318/.356
.270 BABIP, 43% GB, 4.29 FIP

Kenny Rogers, 43
88.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 36BB, 36K, 8 HR
.284/.357/.437
.301 BABIP, 44% GB, 4.78 FIP

Nate Robertson, 30
90 IP, 5.60 ERA, 26BB, 61 K, 12 HR
.278/.347/479
.332 BABIP, 42% GB, 4.31 FIP

Jeremy Bonderman, 25
71.1 IP, 4.29 ERA, 36BB, 44K, 9 HR
.270/.360/.411
.300 BABIP, 48% GB, 5.05 FIP

Dontrelle Willis, 26
11.1 IP, 10.33 ERA, 21BB, 5K, 2 HR
.189/.483/.432
.172 BABIP, 41% GB, 9.97 FIP

Armando Galarraga, 26
71.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 29BB, 49K, 6 HR
.203/.278/.313
.194 BABIP, 49% GB, 4.15 FIP

Eddie Bonine, 27
12.1 IP, 5.84 ERA, 5BB, 3K, 3 HR
.306/.346/.592
.293 BABIP, 44% GB, 6.08 FIP

This is the group most responsible for the team's initial struggles, and most responsible for the recent resurgence. Fortunately, LD% is available for the Major League pitchers. Justin Verlander has only allowed 14.7% of batted balls to be liners, while teams are hitting Nate Robertson (19.4%) has been hit harder. Between the line drive rate and 12 homers, it seems that Robertson, despite the solid k rate, isn't getting any bad breaks from his defense, but instead has been giving up well hit balls. In recent weeks, Verlander has re-emerged as the staff ace. Kenny Rogers is getting things done with smoke and mirrors again. We've thought he would tail off before, but hasn't yet. Yes, Dontrelle Willis was that bad, and it's just further proof that BAA really isn't a good statistic to use as a measuring stick for pitchers. Galarraga has been discussed in detail, as his peripherals suggest he should be doing much worse. That seems likely, which is unfortunate, because he has gone from a bonus pitcher to necessity. Meanwhile, Eddie Bonine has already allowed three homers. That could spell trouble in the future, and explains why the Tigers are doing things like talking to Freddy Garcia, stretching out Aquilino Lopez, and refusing to give Casey Fossum the release he's earned.

Toledo:
Eddie Bonine, 27
74.1 IP, 4.48 ERA, 14BB, 46K, 6 HR
.287/.321/.427
.325 BABIP, 57% GB, 3.69 FIP

Chris Lambert, 25
78.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, 29BB, 61K, 4 HR
.242/.306/.369
.291 BABIP, 38% GB, 3.45 FIP

Virgil Vasquez, 26
72.1 IP, 5.10 ERA, 14BB, 55K, 11 HR
.295/.336/.480
.335 BABIP, 42% GB, 4.48 FIP

Yorman Bazardo, 24
55.1 IP, 5.86 ERA, 19BB, 40K, 12 HR
.329/.378/.589
.361 BABIP, 49% GB, 5.64 FIP

Jeremy Johnson, 26
46.2, 5.79 ERA, 16BB, 26K, 6 HR
.310/.362/.477
.335 BABIP, 46% GB, 4.82 FIP

Armando Galarraga, 26
12 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1 BB, 11K, 1 HR
.163/.182/.279
.204 BABIP, 50% GB, 2.73 FIP

Dontrelle Willis, 26
16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 7 BB, 11K, 2 HR
.267/.343/.450
.304 BABIP, 50% GB, 4.76 FIP

Lauren Gagnier, 23
20 IP, 4.05 ERA, 12BB, 21K, 1HR
.276/.375/.408
.377 BABIP, 44% GB, 3.58 FIP

I think once you look at their groundball rates and fielding independent stats, you start to see why Eddie Bonine was chosen over Chris Lambert. Lambert has been a bit lucky this season, but still could be the next choice if Bonine falters. Virgil Vasquz missed some time with a shoulder injury, a condition that could explain his step back this year. Coming into the season as the next in line for a starting role, he has been passed over twice now. Vasquez's disappointment doesn't even rival Yorman Bazardo, who has taken a huge step back this year after starting the season in the bullpen. The guy has allowed a slugging percentage that is now pushing .600, meaning he has been pounded pretty good. In the one game I saw him pitch in Toledo in addition to his three disasterous games in Detroit, I've noticed Bazardo's velocity has been sitting mostly in the high 80's. While that is a tell-tale sign of a possible injury, a guy who relies on his changeup will struggle if the differential between his fastball and change decreases. Jeremy Johnson is out with an elbow injury, and nobody even noticed. It's been six years since he rocketed through the system before undergoing massive shoulder surgery. Here you see why Galarraga got the nod in April after Willis' injury. You can also see that Dontrelle struggled in his time with the Hens. Finally, Lauren Gagnier only got promoted because he was in line to start on the day when Toledo needed a starter. He's been a pleasant surprise both with the Hens and with the Whitecaps.

Erie:
Luke French, 22
85.1 IP, 4.85 ERA, 34 BB, 36 K, 4 HR
.317/.376/.421
.342 BABIP, 48% GB, 4.29 FIP

Danny Christensen, 25
80 IP, 3.73 ERA, 34 BB, 43 K, 9 HR
.255/.331/.417
.272 BABIP, 45% GB, 4.99 FIP

Andrew Kown, 25
81.2 IP, 4.85 ERA, 23 BB, 36 K, 13 HR
.284/.331/.478
.289 BABIP, 47% GB, 5.33 FIP

Ben Fritz, 27
56.1 IP, 5.59 ERA, 16 BB, 32 K, 7 HR
.322/.368/.498
.348 BABIP, 45% GB, 4.70 FIP

Josh Rainwater, 23
48.1 IP, 4.84 ERA, 21 BB, 32 K, 1 HR
.283/.350/.369/
.344 BABIP, 44% GB, 3.63 FIP

Luis Marte, 21
12.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 9 BB, 7 K, 1 HR
.250 BABIP, 53% GB, 5.41 FIP

There's not a whole lot to see here. French is young for the league, but the strikeout rate is beyond alarming. He'll probably need to repeat the level next year. Christensen, acquired for Roman Colon this offseason, has put up the best superficial numbers, but it looks like he's had his share of breaks. Kown also looks like he's been a bit lucky this year, and like the rest of this staff, has struggled. Ben Fritz was a Rule 5 pick this past offseason, and missed some time due to shoulder problems. It looks like he's been on the wrong side of the 8-ball, but there's not much promise there. The fourth round pick from five years ago, Josh Rainwater is the most intriguing of the healthy players in Erie's rotation. His peripherals suggest that his ERA should be a full run lower, and the strikeouts have started to come on of late. Luis Marte blew through the Florida State League, but struggled in his two starts before going down with an elbow sprain. There's been no word on his rehab progress, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he needed to undergo Tommy John Surgery as a result of this injury. That would be quite the setback for a guy who burst onto a lot of radars with his performance this year.

There hasn't been a more disappointing group this year than the starting pitchers at the upper levels. While the ones at the big leagues have underperformed for much of the year, the bigger story is the declining depth. Guys like Virgil Vasquez, Jordan Tata, and Yorman Bazardo were thought to be options if things went wrong, but all three have taken themselves out of the running this year. Meanwhile, the Erie rotation is almost completely lacking prospects, as nobody has proven themselves ready for a look at even the AAA level.

Casey Fossum is the New Jason Grilli

Well, Denny Bautista has been designated for assignment to make room for the healthy Joel Zumaya. While it is great to have Zumaya back, it is strange that yet another pitcher has been sent out while the inferior Casey Fossum remains on the roster.

Much was made about Bautista's velocity, but he struggled to throw strikes and that got him in trouble. Still, if you take out his outing before going on the DL with shoulder problems, his ERA is a minuscule 2.04. Meanwhile, he's only walked one guy in his 5 2/3 innings since returning from the disabled list. This demotion seems unwaranted, unless the plan is to stretch him out, similar to Aquilino Lopez. I have a hard time believing Bautista gets through waivers, considering he hasn't pitched poorly this year.

Once again, when you have three right-handed relievers in Zumaya (.199/.291/.321), Rodney (.233/.332/.385), and Miner (.268/.345/.405) who have small right/left platoon splits for their careers. I don't see the need for a second lefty. I especially don't see the need for a second lefty who has been rocked in his time with the big club. Finally, I don't see the reason for sending another hard thrower who is outperforming the second lefty through waivers.

I'm thrilled to have a healthy Joel Zumaya back on the team, but this has been the latest in a series of poor moves in managing this bullpen. I'm beginning to realize the value of Zumaya and an effective Rodney goes well beyond their ability to get guys out. Jim Leyland has continually shown that he is incapable of correctly deploying his relievers. This latest affair with Casey Fossum is just more proof.

Random Thoughts

• Marcus Thames is red hot. While this is getting plenty of attention, I just wanted to give credit where he's due. Hopefully he doesn't start swinging for the fences to keep up this "streak."
• I really hate to keep ripping on ESPN announcers, but another one of my pet peeves came up yesterday during the Rice/LSU College World Series game. A left-handed pitcher balked on a throw over to first. I couldn't tell from the camera angle, but the pitcher either stepped towards home plate or swung his foot back towards second before throwing to first. Either one of those motions would be a balk, but neither of the announcers had a clue about what was done. My new favorite target Karl Ravech just sounded lost, and analyst Robin Ventura started talking about the pitchers back leg breaking or something along those lines that is nothing near a balk. The point is that neither was capable of explaining how the pitcher balked, something that I would expect somebody getting paid thousands of dollars per game to be able to explain. I really do believe that before somebody announces a game on national television, they should memorize and be tested on baseball rules, so that their ignorance isn't spread to the masses.
• Speaking of terribly ignorant announcers, I was watching the Giants' feed of the series, and Mike Krukow had some "gems." After Michael Hollimon's first error, he stated Hollimon was known for his defense. This is a laughable notion for a guy who has been purely carried by his bat. He also seriously said baseball is so simple that it is "Just a big game of catch." I really wish that was the case. There were more where I shook my head, but they aren't coming to mind right now.
• Speaking of Michael Hollimon, he needs to do a better job in the field if he wants to be considered for any sort of long term role.
• I'm really considering taking down the "Free Ryan Raburn" propaganda. Between Thames dominating, Raburn struggling, and his increased playing time; I'm beginning to think he doesn't need to be freed.
• I happened to be in the room when one of the shouting ESPN angry sportswriter shows was on last week after the Dontrelle Willis demotion, and it occured to me that people still think that A ball is the lowest rung of minor league systems. Lakeland is still above West Michigan, Oneonta, and the Gulf Coast Tigers, but I wouldn't expect one of the shouting sportswriters to know this.
• I don't know which GCL outfielder I'm more looking forward to following this year: CT Tang or Alexis Espinoza. Londell Taylor and D'Andre Vaughn apparently also have high ceilings, but I still have vivid memories of Robbie Sovie.
• To think, I had already started my draft of the fire sale post...

Casey Fossum and Options

Doing the same thing as we did yesterday with Aquilino Lopez, I searched for hidden options in players. One player I had assumed was out of options is Casey Fossum. Because his assignment to Pawtucket in 2001 lasted only three days, it turns out he's still got one left, but it's not that simple. While he doesn't have to clear waivers, as a player with over five seasons of MLB Service Time, Fossum must accept an optional assignment in order to be sent to the minors. He enforced this last year with the Rays, refusing assignment and requesting his release in August. This is a unique situation, with a borderline contending team lacking starting pitching depth while overflowing with relievers. It would seem that he should accept an assignment if optioned out, but he may overvalue himself.

I would hope that Fossum is sent out soon. Whether it is the corresponding move to Joel Zumaya's return or if it is to make room for a superior second lefty (Hello, Clay Rapada and Ian Ostlund!) this is another proverbial bullet that needs to be taken out of Jim Leyland's gun before he shoots the team in the foot anymore.

How Does Aquilino Lopez have an option year remaining?

This is simply confusing to me. From the transactions archive via ESPN.com:

2004:
April 25, Toronto: Optioned to AAA Syracuse.
May 12, Toronto: Recalled from AAA Syracuse.
June 11, Toronto: Optioned to AAA Syracuse.
September 21, Toronto: Designated Aquilino Lopez for Assignment.

2005:
July 30, Colorado: Purchased the Contract from AAA Colorado Springs.
August 3, Philadelphia: Claimed off waivers from Colorado and optioned him to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
August 20, Philadelphia: Recalled from AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
December 16, Philadelphia: Sent outright to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

2007:
April 20, Detroit: Purchased the contract from AAA Toledo.
May 4, Detroit: Optioned to AAA Toledo.
May 6, Detroit: Recalled from AAA Toledo.
May 13, Detroit: Optioned to AAA Toledo.
June 7, Detroit: Recalled from AAA Toledo
June 10, Detroit: Designated for Assignment
June 11, Detroit: Optioned to AAA Toledo.
August 11, Detroit: Recalled from AAA Toledo.
August 19, Detroit: Optioned to AAA Toledo.
August 30, Detroit: Outrighted to AAA Toledo.


How do you use options? According to the Biz of Baseball:

If a player is not sent to the minors during a year, an option is not used.
If a player is on the 40-man roster in spring training but optioned to the
minors before the season begins, an option is used.
If a player’s optional
assignment(s) to the minors total less than 20 days in one season, an option is
not used.
A player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been
optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of
professional experience. A full season is defined as being on an active pro
roster for at least 90 days in a season. (If a player is put on the disabled
list after earning 60 or more days of service in a single season, his time on
the DL is counted.) The 90-day requirement means short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and
Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of
determining eligibility for a fourth option.

The one section of this rule that I overlooked is the 20 day requirement. A player must be on optional assignment for 20 days in order to use an option. In 2005, Lopez spent only 17 days on optional assignment, thus he did not use an option that season. Aquilino Lopez had an option remaining opposed to what I erroneously reported, and thus was able to be sent to Toledo to be stretched to starting.

Seriously? Lopez?

So Aquilino Lopez is the guy being sent out to make room for Fernando Rodney. I have two questions regarding this move.

1.) Why not Fossum?
2.) Is Rodney even an upgrade over Lopez, who has been the team's most effective reliever so far?

I understand that the move is to try and stretch Lopez into a starter, giving the team another starting pitching option in reserve. But do the Tigers really expect a pitcher who has walked just seven batters while posting a 2.67 ERA this year to clear waivers? Given what teams pay for this type of pitcher at the trading deadline, I get the feeling Lopez will be claimed. I hope I'm wrong, but if the Tigers do lose a solid reliever, rest assured that Casey Fossum didn't get a chance to excercise the July 1 opt out clause in his contract.

Update: Lopez does have an option remaining. I guess this move makes sense to give some depth at starting pitching. If Lopez was out of options and was exposed to waivers, this move would have been much more questionable. I hope Fossum is the guy sent out for Zumaya, though.

Scanning The System - Right Field

When I started doing these posts, I looked at where a player had played the most games and called that his position. Unfortunately, when I do this roughly once per week, things change, players get promoted, and players move positions. Two weeks ago, when I looked at left fielders, Matt Joyce was in his last days as the starting left fielder, while Brent Clevlen was splitting time between center and right in Toledo. Because of the need for a left fielder in Detroit, I counted Joyce as a left fielder, even though he had played mostly right field in the minor leagues. The same is true of Brent Clevlen, but since I haven't covered him yet, I will cover him today. I will also look at Kody Kaiser again, because he has played mostly right field of late, even though I already got him at third base.

Detroit:
Magglio Ordonez, 34
Actual: .311/.381/.494
Expected: .283/.356/.466

A week ago, I would have advocated exploring a trade of Magglio Ordonez. He seemed like the perfect sell high candidate, and with the bunch of corner outfielders who had the potential to cover right field, it seemed like it may have been a good opportunity to reload. Now, after a sweep of the White Sox, an easier schedule coming up, and a resurgent pitching staff, there seems to be a window to get back into this thing. If that doesn't happen, I'd at least test the waters with Magglio come july. Also, don't pay attention to the expected values. He's always had high BABIP, so it's pretty reasonable to assume continued success from him.

Brent Clevlen, 24
Actual: .176/.286/.176 (Toledo: .324/.417/.620)
Expected: .227/.238/.117 (Toledo: .272/.373/.568)

Clevlen's main problem is contact. He struggles with the whiffs, and those struggles seem to be on the brink of ending his future in Detroit. He hit very well for Toledo, but the .412 BABIP suggests that to be somewhat of a mirage. It's still enough for Jim Leyland to justify playing him, hoping he can recapture some of what he provided as Curtis Granderson's platoon partner two summers ago. There's an outfield rotation in Toledo right now, with Jackson Melian getting a lot of time in right field. I already covered him with the left fielders, and trust me, he doesn't deserve any more coverage.

Erie:
Deik Scram, 24
Actual: .253/.333/.378
Expected: .184/.273/.309

Jeff Frazier, 25
Actual: .318/.369/.441
Expected: .256/.313/.379

Casper Wells, 23
Actual: .273/.333/.545 (West Michigan: .240/.351/.447)
Expected: .182/.250/.454 (West Michigan: .195/.313/.402)

Deik Scram has been overrated as a prospect, mostly because of his age. A 23 year old putting up the numbers he did in A-ball last season wasn't exactly impressive. As a college senior, he needed to move fast, and to his credit, he has. Unfortunately, he seems overmatched in Erie. Jeff Frazier's return to the organization has been a pleasant surprise, but he won't be showing up on any prospect lists anytime soon. Neither will Casper Wells, whose fast start at Erie is likely the result of a small sample size to date.

Lakeland:
Brennan Boesch, 23
Actual: .245/.290/.382
Expected: .213/.261/.350

Luis Salas, 19
Actual: .260/.421/.467
Expected: .393/.526/.600

Boesch has been a disappointment, and probably needs to be held back a level next season. His lack of pitch recognition seems to be his downfall, and any hype resulting from his decent debut at Oneonta and big time ceiling is now overshadowed by his complete lack of offensive performance. Before you get too excited about Salas (actually a centerfielder, I just wanted to get him in today), realize it's only 19 plate appearances. Still you have to wonder how the plans may change for the young Venezuelan if he continues to excel in Lakeland.

West Michigan:
Kody Kaiser, 23
Actual: .282/.342/.441
Expected: .237/.302/.396

Cory Middleton, 22
Actual: .205/.288/.321
Expected: .205/.288/.321

Kaiser is doing well again in his Ryan Raburn role. He's probably not worth getting excited about. Now failing for the second time in West Michigan, it is hard to believe that Cory Middleton is just 22.

DSL:
Victor Dionisio, 18
Actual: .238/.333/.286
Expected: .283/.333/.286

Robinson Figueroa, 18
Actual: .136/.269/.364
Expected: .181/.307/.409

There's going to be a lot more than how well they do in a few at bats that will determine if these guys can make it to the states. For perspective on the sample size limitations of looking at the numbers for a season just two weeks old, the difference between Figueroa's actual and expected line is just one single.

VSL:
Avisail Garcia, 17
Actual: .247/.315/.443
Expected: .175/.250/371

Garcia just turned 17 Thursday. I'll let that sink in and consider that he has been pretty impressive for a guy who would have been playing in his junior year of high school.


Perhaps next time through, I will lump all of the outfielders together. I'm beginning to realize that may have been a more efficient and accurate way to portray the state of the system, given that outfielders tend to be somewhat interchangeable. As with most of the positions, the trend has been a solid incumbant at the top, decent reinforcement at Toledo or the Detroit bench, and various degrees of struggling prospects falling off the radar as you get further down the system. Ordonez is one of the team's best players, and barring some team knocking Dave Dombrowski's socks off in a trade offer for him, he will be for another couple of seasons. The immediate need for right field help doesn't exist, but it would still be nice if guys like Boesch would take a step forward and give the Tigers options for the early part of the next decade.

Bonine to Start

So much for my prediction of who takes the open spot in the rotation, eh? It looks like Eddie Bonine will be starting on Saturday. As I pointed out Monday, it's pretty slim for the Tigers when it comes to upper level starting pitching. Bonine's biggest asset is his ability to throw strikes, walking only 24 batters in 154 innings last year, and only 14 batters in 74 innings so far this year. The 27-year old pitcher is somewhat known for his knuckleball, which he uses as an alternate pitch. I look forward to seeing that pitch.

He's also the first minor league Rule 5 pick to make the Tigers that I can remember. I'll have to check later to see if any other players acquired in this overlooked phase of the free talent draft have made the Tigers' roster.

Upon checking, I have discovered that Jose Macias and Buddy Groom were each minor league Rule 5 picks.

Starting Pitchers on Waivers

The only two starting pitchers I could find on waivers: Elizardo Ramirez and Sidney Ponson. Neither is a legitimate option, not that I was expecting to find one on waivers. I don't have much of an idea which free agent pitchers are available. Mike Maroth is available, but isn't the pitcher he was 2-3 years ago.

Who's Next?

I don't know that this has ever been said by anybody, but Steve Phillips is right. Dontrelle Willis cannot take the field for Detroit until he figures his issues out. These issues have clearly been around all year. Remember before the season when he was to stay down in Lakeland to work on his control before showing up on opening day. The control has been a concern since the moment he worked out this spring, and the three-year contract is now officially a mistake.

Now what?

ESPN showed Dave Dombrowski in an animated phone conversation right after today's disaster. There is no way that Willis will be on the active roster five days from now. Willis, having five years of service time, must grant permission to be sent to the minor leagues. He seems like a good guy who knows that it would be for his own good to work things out away from the active roster. Willis does have options, so he will not have to pass through waivers to go down... not to say that anybody would want to pick up the rest of this albatross of a contract.

Who takes his place?

This is the bigger concern. With Jeremy Bonderman out for a while (Will Carroll says it's possible that he could return before the end of the season, but don't get your hopes up), somebody will need to be moved into the rotation. I was going to scan the system for starting pitchers next week, but we can see that for all of the struggles in Detroit this year, Toledo and Erie are lacking alternate options.

I will rule out Zach Miner, who seems to have been moved permanently to the bullpen. The default choice will have to be Casey Fossum, who was dominant in his time with the Mudhens. As bad as he was in his first outing, he is the only player aside from Armando Galarraga to pitch well out of Toledo's rotation.

In Toledo, Virgil Vasquez has struggled and missed time with a shoulder injury. He's back and pitching somewhat better. I'm betting Fossum gets the gig for the time being, but Vasquez will be the next option, unless you think Chris Lambert is for real. Despite a 3.38 ERA, the strikeouts aren't there. There seems to be a sentiment that he isn't going to keep this up. He's probably option number 3.

Remember Jordan Tata? He's having the same problems that Willis is having... for Lakeland.

Yorman Bazardo was thought to be the team's sixth starter this year. He's not fairing much better in Toledo than he did up with the big club, with a 5.57 ERA with the Mudhens. The good news is that his walks are down, but he will still get pummeled with a promotion.

Jeremy Johnson is posting a 5.79 ERA in Toledo's rotation. Eddie Bonine rounds out the rotation, and is his typical mediocre self.

So Toledo doesn't provide much of anything, how about Erie? Rather than go through each pitcher, I will point out that the strikeout leader for the Seawolves is reliever Anthony Tomey with 33. Neither Luke French, Danny Christensen, Andrew Kown, Josh Rainwater nor Ben Fritz are capable of pitching well in Erie at this moment, let alone Detroit.

Luis Marte was skyrocketing through the system, and is now out with a sprained ligament in his elbow. To my knowledge, he's still trying to rehab it, but he won't be coming up any time soon.

There will inevitably be Rick Porcello speculation. I don't think he's close to ready at this point, and with the season on the brink of being a lost cause, I don't think this is the correct situation to rush a prospect.

In short, Fossum, Vasquez, and Lambert are the top three options. In other words, keep an eye out for the waiver wire. This could get ugly.

Maybe It's Not the Whole American League...

With the unbalanced schedule, one thing I was going to look into this off-season was calculating some sort of a division factor, as I had noticed a surge in offense in the National League East the past couple of seasons. Just as playing half of your games in Coors Field will inflate numbers, playing almost half of your games against the same small group of teams could have an effect on statistics. If the other teams in your division have great hitters, your pitchers will likely have worse numbers. If every team in your division has great pitching and defense, your hitters will likely struggle. If you have to play more games than any other opponent in Petco Park, that will probably have an effect... except that is offset by the same amount of games played in Coors Field.

I wish I would have gotten around to looking at this before the season, because I could have taken credit for thinking Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria would have worse seasons as they move into a tougher division to hit. While I think that is part of the reason they have failed to live up to expectations, there likely is more to the equation.

I first started to look into this when I saw some fantasy baseball transactions over the past week. Travis Hafner was dropped in one of my leagues; Victor Martinez was benched for Dionar Navarro in another. I had high hopes for Billy Butler in one of my leagues, only to see him tank and end up in AAA. One owner was thrilled to have Delmon Young finally hit a home run this week. Oh yeah, this Tigers offense isn't exactly on pace to put up 1000 runs. Something seems to be amiss in the American League Central.

Interestingly enough, this is not the case. I wrote that whole introduction before crunching the numbers, and the results surprised me.

I'm about to introduce a statistic called Divisional Effect. This will be similar to a team's park effect, where the team's runs scored and allowed within the division are divided by the runs scored and allowed outside of the division, multiplied by 100 and rounded to the nearest integer to make things pretty. The Divisional Effect will have two components: oDE, which measures the effect on runs scored and pDE which measures the effect on run prevention. American League Central teams ended up with a oDE of 105 and a pDE of 100. This suggests that American League Central hitters actually do better within the division. Another look at the depressed numbers of AL Central hitters would seem to suggest otherwise.

I've run out of time for now. I will have more on the Divisional Effect later in the week. I just came up with it this morning and want to refine some things before coming to conclusions.

Seriously?

Casey Fossum, he of the 135.00 ERA, is being brought into the game to face the tying run. This cannot end well.

edit:
It feels good to be wrong. That's always a nice omen when a potential Leyland blunder turns into a good move.

Major Announcing Pet Peeve

Watching the Miami/Arizona game on ESPN, I was reminded of one of the things announcers do that annoys me the most: complaining about the length of a game. The game is in its fourth hour, and Karl Ravech (doing play-by-play for some reason) has been bemoaning the fact that the game is taking a while. There is nothing worse than an announcer who makes it pretty clear that he does not want to be at the game that he is doing. It's a pretty exciting game, and there is no reason to complain about how long it is. The one announcer I've ever heard take a stand against something like this was Golf Channel announcer Kelly Tilghman, who responded "Come on, this is exciting stuff" when one of the crew complained about a playoff extending to its fourth hole. I was impressed with her at that point, and then the next day her "lynching" comment was brought to light.

That was an exciting game today. It took a while and a few defensive miscues by the Cleveland outfield to spark the rally, but the Tigers sure made them pay. That is the offense that needs to show up more frequently if this season isn't going to be a lost cause.

My best wishes go out to Jeremy Bonderman. Blood clots are a potentially serious condition, and I'm glad it was nipped in the bud. Some other players who have had similar conditions are David Cone, Aaron Cook, Kenny Rogers, and Hank Blalock. I wish him well in his recovery, but I'm very curious about his recovery and if he can still be the same pitcher after this.

Just as I was getting ready to post this, Ravech says sarcastically "At some point, Sportscenter will begin." We get it. You don't want to be there.

Roster Turnover

Tons of moves today, as expected.

Aquilino Lopez is on the berevement list with Denny Bautista getting recalled from his rehab.
Clete Thomas heads to the DL with a sprained ankle with Brent Clevlen coming up from Toledo.
Ramon Santiago was placed on the DL after his shoulder seperation and Michael Hollimon is up in his place.

Lopez's berevement stay should be short lived, at which point the Casey Fossum experiment will likely be over. Brent Clevlen was hitting the ball hard in Toledo and has earned this call up for the time being, and Hollimon was the likely choice to fill in as the utility infielder. Could he now have a shot at winning the 2009 starting shortstop gig?

Happy Draft Day

As a Tigers fan, one thing to watch for is the reaction of teams to bonus demands this morning. Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello weren't thought to be available until they scared teams away right before the draft. Catcher Buster Posey of Florida State, once thought to be the first choice of the Rays wants a $12-millon bonus. This will likely be enough to scare several teams away. Could he fall all the way to 21?

Speaking of players who fell because of Bonus demands, there is a premium article on BaseballProspectus.com today with computer projections of each of last year's draft picks. To put it nicely, Porcello's projection was not pretty, as his top comparable was Jon Garland. The main reason is the extremely low strikeout rate. Even for a high level, this is quickly becoming a major red flag for the young pitcher. Hopefully all the talk of him working primarily with his fastball and not his breaking stuff is true.

Buster Posey just went to the Giants, as they call his bluff. Hosmer and Posey, two of the guys who were thought to be potential drops have now been taken.

And the first rounder was Ryan Perry, a big hard throwing reliever out of Arizona. Will he be moved to the rotation? Will he stay in the pen? Will he be ready this year? I'm not enamored with the pick. He seems like a hard thrower with command problems and a fast, yet hittable fastball. Then again, I'm far from a scout, and there wasn't much available. After all, I didn't like the Verlander pick either.

I wasn't exactly thrilled with the rest of Day 1 either. Satterwhite, Green, and Jacobson all seem like virtual clones. One thing to note is that it won't be fair to judge them on their performances. All three pitch in the difficult SEC, and they all throw hard. If they can straighten things out, the potential is there. There was a definite trend with the first four picks. I didn't agree with the selection, but if one of them turns into a solid bullpen arm, the draft is a success. The fifth round saw Alex Avila, the son of assistant general manager Al Avila. This is not like drafting Colin Kaline or Wade Lamont. Avila is a legit prospect out of the University of Alabama, having moved from the infield in high school to catcher at Alabama. Finally, sixth rounder Tyler Stohr is another hard throwing relief type.

On one other note, the most surprising moment of the draft was the spot where ESPN panned to Al Kaline, Al Avila, and Willie Horton. Kaline was laughing so hard, and it was the first time I've ever seen him even crack a smile.

Historical Draft Review - Wrapup

With the draft just hours away, I wanted to wrap up the draft reviews everybody begins to look to the future.

Year WARP Best Pick (Player from pick who accumulated most value)

1. 1976 292.0 Alan Trammell
2. 1975 184.8 Lou Whitaker
3. 1974 149.0 Lance Parrish
4. 1998 85.4 Jeff Weaver

5. 1987 54.7 Travis Fryman
6. 1992 51.8 Bobby Higginson
7 1980 40.3 Glenn Wilson (Willie Hernandez)

8. 1989 39.2 Greg Gohr (Damion Easley)
9. 1991 38.1 Justin Thompson
10. 1984 37.9 Mike Henneman
11. 1978 35.6 Kirk Gibson

12. 1977 33.7 Mike Chris (Larry Herndon)
13. 1983 32.6 Jeff Robinson (Mickey Tettleton)

14. 1981 31.7 Bob Melvin (Matt Nokes)
15. 1972 31.6 Verne Ruhle

16. 2002 27.6 Curtis Granderson

17. 1979 25.4 Howard Johnson (Walt Terrell)

18. 1988 24.4 Rich Rowland (Todd Jones)

19. 1993 23.4 Brian Moehler

20. 1990 22.3 Tony Clark

21. 2004 14.6 Justin Verlander

22. 1970 14.4 Phil Mankowski

23. 1971 11.6 Jim Perry

24. 1969 11.3 Lerrin LaGrow

25. 1985 11.1 John Smoltz (Doyle Alexander)

26. 1996 9.4 Robert Fick

27. 2001 8.7 Matt Coenen (Chris Spurling)

28. 1986 7.4 Milt Cuyler

29. 1966 6.9 Les Cain

30. 1997 5.9 Matt Anderson

31. 2000 5.8 Nook Logan

32. 1995 5.4 Gabe Kapler

33. 2005 3.9 Kevin Whelan/Anthony Claggett (Gary Sheffield)

34. 1982 3.5 Rich Monteleone (Darnell Coles)

35. 1994 2.5 Daryle Ward

36. 1968 2.3 Bill Slayback

37. 1967 1.5 Dennis Saunders

38. 2006 1.5 Andrew Miller

39. 1999 1.4 Eric Munson

40. 2003 1.2 Brian Rogers (Sean Casey)

41. 1965 1.1 Gene Lamont (Bob Didier)

42. 1973 0.1 Bob Adams

43. 2007 0.0 No Major League Players

Draft Still Active

Obviously, this is a running total, a total that is probably outdated since I took the data just under two weeks ago. This is not to say that 2007 is the worst draft ever; the players just haven't made it to the Major Leagues quite yet. After this week, it will be tied with the 2008 draft. This next graph will show the percentage of value that the average draft has accumulated over time.

You can see a typical draft typically produces most of its value between 2 and 15 years after the draft occurred. It's probably best to wait at least 8-10 years to evaluate a draft or wait until no players remain from the draft. Finally, a few bits of random information:

• Gene Lamont was the first player ever taken by the Tigers in the draft. As of this moment, his son, Wade was one of the last players taken and signed from last year's draft.
• Andrew Miller was the first Tigers' draft pick to play in the Major Leagues the year he was drafted. For all the talk of how the Minors weren't needed "back in the day," that day was a time when baseball rules basically prohibited players from the Minors.
• First overall picks in the June Draft? Matt Anderson was the only one, although Steve Kemp was taken first overall in the January Draft.

Dave O'Brien is a terrible announcer

Rather than talk about how quickly the Tigers will ship Casey Fossum out or how predictable a Tigers GIDP is with the bases loaded, I want to vent about an ESPN broadcaster.

I was out of the country last year and had to watch the international feed of the World Series and ALCS. To put it nicely, O'Brien made me long for the Buck/McCarver combo. His constant bias towards the Red Sox was beyond disgusting and tough to listen to. Why do I bring this up now?

I tune into the Red Sox vs. Rays game on ESPN, and it took not one pitch in Evan Longoria's at bat for O'Brien to mention Eva Longoria. I had one of my "shout at the announcer" moments after that one. I find it hard to handle games that O'Brien announces, between the completely phony Al Michaels impression, the Boston homerism, and the utter cluelessness, he is hard to listen to. Going for the easy, banal, and overplayed link the first time you see Evan Longoria play is putrid on so many levels.

For all the talk of timely hitting, starting pitching, infield defense, everybody is missing the true reason the Tigers are losing: Dave O'Brien.

Historical Draft Review #1 - 1976

Baseball Reference Page
Total WARP: 292.0
General Manager: Jim Campbell
Scouting Director: Bill LaJoie
Best Pick: Alan Trammell, 2nd Round, 104.3 WARP
Peak Season: 1983, 31.4 WARP

First Ten Picks plus notables:
1-2) Pat Underwood, P, Kokomo, IN, 5.5 WARP
2-2) Alan Trammell, SS, San Diego, CA, 104.3 WARP
3-2) Scott Johnson, C, LaVerne, CA, 0 WARP
4-2) Dan Petry, P, Placentia, CA, 42.0 WARP
5-2) Jack Morris, P, Brigham Young U., 52.6 WARP
6-2) Laurence Douglass, SS, Salem, NH, 0 WARP
7-2) Ozzie Smith, SS, Cal Poly, Unsigned
8-2) Glenn Gulliver, SS, Eastern Michigan U., 0 WARP
9-2) Charles Farmer, C, Brooksville, FL, 0 WARP
10-2) Michael Burns, P, Alma College, 0.1 WARP
15-2) Roger Weaver, P, SUNY-Oneonta, 1.5 WARP
32-2) Kip Young, P, Bowling Green State U., 3.9 WARP
1-1) (Jan.) Steve Kemp, OF, U. of Southern California, 82.1 WARP

Wow. You could make the case that this is the best collection of talent ever drafted in a single season by any team. I will now attempt to show how much this draft helped the Tigers:

• Assuming that a league average player provides 5.0 WARP per season, this draft's total of 292.0 equates to roughly 60 equivalent league average seasons.
• No other draft provided 20+ WARP in one season. This draft did it every year from 1979 through 1986, for a total of eight times. It also eclipsed the 30 mark twice, in 1983 and 1984.
• There is no doubt that 1984 does not happen if this draft did not go as well as it did. In fact, much of the success the Tigers had in the 1980's would not have happened.

For the second year in a row, Detroit had a high pick in the first round, and for the second year in a row, that player flopped, as Pat Underwood simply didn't produce in the big leagues. Have no fear, as a young shortstop from San Diego was taken in the second round and proceeded to become the greatest shortstop in team history. Like his double play partner, Trammell has been abused by the BBWAA in the Hall of Fame voting, but that is to be expected, as several guys who do the voting are incapable of thought. The underrated Dan Petry and overrated Jack Morris were back to back. I was surprised to see that Petry went earlier in the draft, but both had fine careers for the Tigers. I should point out that Jack Morris was a free agent after the 1986 season, so any production from him after that time was left out.

Now we get to the seventh round pick, the answer (for at least the next five years until John Smoltz's induction or if the BBWAA gets their head out of their collective rectums regarding Trammell) to the trivia question: who is the only Hall of Famer drafted by the Tigers? The answer of course is Ozzie Smith. I get the feeling the Tigers not being able to sign him would have been much more bemoaned had Alan Trammell not had the career he did. It's still interesting to think how much Tigers history would have changed if he was signed. Would Trammell have been blocked? Would one of the two shortstops be traded? Would Trammell move to third?

Steve Kemp's total of 82.1 WARP is a bit dubious. First, he was taken in the January portion of the draft, which really wasn't part of the June draft. Also, it was the timely trade of Kemp to the Chicago White Sox for Chet Lemon that led to a majority of that total. Kemp was a fine player in his time with the Tigers, and Chet Lemon did hold down the center field position for most of the 1980's. It was still a fine use of the first pick of the January draft, as there was no other player taken in that first round draft who held down a Major League job.

This was just an amazing draft. If anybody knows of any other drafts by other teams that could compete with this one, we can compare them if needed. Regardless, if anybody gets too excited and declares this week's draft the best ever, kindly remind them of the talent accumulated in 1976.

Scanning The System - Center Field

One day before a few more outfielders are added to the mix, I wanted to check up on the center fielders in the system using the expected batting average on balls in play method to see through any flukes. Unfortunately, luck isn't the only thing that can cause to a higher than normal BABIP. We saw last week that Wilkin Ramirez was playing significantly over his head. The problem with pinning it all on luck is that Ramirez is a very fast runner and likely has beaten out several ground balls that a slower player may end up back in the dugout after hitting. Granted, as infield defenses get better and hamstrings get older, these hits do tend to go away, but I want to remind everybody that speed can play a large role in BABIP discrepancies. It's a very convenient time to bring this up, because center field is a position reserved for typically the fastest players on each team. The LD%+.12 method will still be applied, but it's important to realize that it may not be an accurate representation for the fleet of foot.

Detroit:
Curtis Granderson, 27
Actual: .250/.306/.451
Expected: .264/.319/.465

Clete Thomas, 24
Actual: .292/.333/.385
Expected: .261/.305/.354

Granderson, like Miguel Cabrera, has taken an unfair amount of heat for the team's struggles. It was pretty clear that his season last year was a bit more than what he was capable of and his batting average seemed likely to come down. Combine the fact that it is very hard to hit in the American League this season, and Granderson's "expected" performance is about what should have been projected for this year. It's important to note that his strikeout rate is continually decreasing and his defense is still amazing. His diving play in the 8th inning last night was a thing of beauty. It's unfair to criticize players when you should be criticizing your own expectations.

I expected Thomas' expected numbers to be low. He seemed to be finding the holes through the first couple of weeks of the season. Clete's biggest asset is still his arm, which would have saved the game last night had Pudge been able to snag the throw that was right on the money.

Toledo:
Clete Thomas, 24
Actual: .242/.324/.406
Expected: .258/.337/.422

Freddy Guzman, 27
Actual: .286/.341/.429
Expected: .195/.261/.338

Even in Toledo, Clete has been pretty much as expected this season. He struggled a bit, which enabled Joyce to get the call over him when Jacque Jones was finally let go. Ultimately, he got hot again and is back with the big club.

Don't judge Guzman too harshly because of those numbers. He is very fast, and has probably turned his fair share of ground outs into singles.

Erie:
Justin Justice, 23
Actual: .193/.274/.265
Expected: .157/.242/.229

Freddy Guzman, 27
Actual: .281/.364/.446
Expected: .173/.272/.339

A chain reaction ensued when Jacque Jones was released. Joyce moved up to Detroit, Guzman took his place in Toledo, and Justin Justice moved from left field in Lakeland to center field in Erie. As was the case when he moved up from Oneonta to West Michigan and from West Michigan to Lakeland, Justice has struggled to adjust to the level. That will have to change quickly if he wants the door to the big leagues to remain unlocked.

Lakeland:
Jeramy Laster, 23
Actual: .237/.295/.449
Expected: .169/.233/.381

Justin Justice, 23
Actual: .300/.370/.533
Expected: .233/.311/.466

Laster has the raw tools that scouts love, but he has always had problems knowing which pitches to swing at. Already with over 80 strikeouts, that problem hasn't gone away this season. Justice was playing well before his promotion, but there are some signs he may have been a bit lucky.

West Michigan:
Kyle Peter, 22
Actual: .257/.368/.306
Expected: .170/.295/.219

David Chadd's nephew is very fast, but doesn't have much else in the offensive toolbox.

DSL Tigers:
Luis Castillo, 19
Actual: .143/.333/.143

Luis Castillo moves from the VSL to the DSL. This is presumably a promotion of sorts, made easier by the fact that Castillo, a Panamanian, doesn't have a summer league in his own country. He's a long way from the big leagues and has his work cut out just to make it stateside.

VSL Tigers:
Alexander Moreno, 18
Actual: .347/.390/.556
Expected: .222/.273/.431

Moreno, signed sometime between the publication of the media guide and the beginning of May, has been a pleasant surprise. It's hard to use the line drive rates that come out of the VSL. It's going to be up to Moreno's performance to find out if he's for real.


After trading the top two center field prospects in the organization and signing Curtis Granderson to a long term deal, it was pretty clear which basket the Tigers put all of their eggs. Despite his struggles this season, Granderson will remain an asset to the club for the duration of his contract. This is a relief, since it is hard to say any of the prospects can be counted on in any sort of a center fielder of the future role. Moreno bears watching, as does Laster if he ever figures out the strike zone. There are also several toolsy outfielders in extended spring training who will be in this mix as soon as the late season leagues kick off. Overall, the system doesn't have much in the way of center field talent down on the farm, but it's simply not needed, no matter how many irrational criticisms are thrown Curtis Granderson's way.

Cruceta for Fossum

Francisco Cruceta goes from high leverage innings to the waiver wire as he was designated for assignment today. It turns out the problems with his control haven't gone away, as he has struggled mightily. It's just interesting to me that he goes straight from pitching in the late innings to off of the team. Maybe this was a case of Dave Dombrowski taking a bullet out of Jim Leyland's gun. He has 10 days to clear waivers or get traded. I'll bet he clears waivers and heads to Toledo, although somebody may want to take a flier on his arm.

Casey Fossum has been dominant in Toledo and had a July 1 out clause in his contract. There have been concerns about his fastball velocity, but this gives the Tigers a second lefty in the pen while Seay is struggling and Willis returns to the rotation. Still, Fossum has been pretty bad in the bigs the past couple of seasons. The one time Red Sox ace of the future is now a mopup guy for the Tigers.

Historical Draft Review #2 - 1975

Baseball Reference Page
Total WARP: 184.8
General Manager: Jim Campbell
Scouting Director: Bill LaJoie
Best Pick: Lou Whitaker, 5th Round, 109.0 WARP
Peak Season: 1983, 17.2 WARP

First Ten Picks plus notables:
1-3) Les Filkins, OF, Chicago, IL, 0 WARP
2-3) John Murphy, P, Brooklyn, NY, 0 WARP
3-3) Bob Grandas, SS, Flint, MI, 0 WARP
4-3) Jason Thompson, 1B, Cal St. Northridge, 22.2 WARP
5-3) Lou Whitaker, 2B, Martinsville, VA, 109.0 WARP
6-3) Jeff Reinke, P, USC, 0 WARP
7-3) Dana McManus, P, Chapman U., 0 WARP
8-3) Steve Powers, P, U of Arizona, 0 WARP
9-3) Andrew Lopez, SS, UCLA, 0 WARP
10-3) Vince Diaz, C, Miami, FL, 0 WARP
Jan 1-4) Tom Brookens, SS, Mansfield CC, 17.4 WARP
Jan (Sec) 1-2) Dave Tobik, P, Ohio U., 11.2 WARP
Jan (Sec) 4-2) Dave Rozema, P, Grand Rapids CC, 25.0 WARP

It's no secret that the mini dynasty of the 1980's was built around the drafts of the mid 1970's. Unlike the 1999 and 2003 drafts when the third overall pick was wasted, the 1975 draft made up for Les Filkins with a star player in the fifth round. I'll leave the discussion of the BBWAA and their unfair treatment of Lou Whitaker for another day, but he made this draft. Note that his performance after 1992 does not count towards this discussion, as he hit the free agent market at that time. Jason Thompson was a quality player for a couple of years before struggling and being dealt to California for Al Cowens. The "other" phases of the draft didn't come into play in 1974, but did here. Tom Brookens (note that he was drafted as a shortstop... there really isn't such a thing as a third base prospect) was taken in the January draft, while Tobik and Rozema went in the secondary phase of the January draft.

Even in the second greatest draft in team history, eight of the first ten draft picks failed to make the show. Make this yet another warning when it comes to getting your hopes up about draft picks.

The top draft in team history is tommorow. I'll give you a hint: it's not 2007.

Getting Caught Up

In the midst of the draft reviews, I've been a bit behind on some of the news of the past week.

We went through two more starting left fielders. Marcus Thames did well in his time out there, but it looks like Carlos Guillen could get more time in left. I'm not sure that a move to the outfield will help a guy who has had problems with his knees and hamstrings, but putting Brandon Inge at third base will help the infield defense. It looks like this is just something to give Jim Leyland an option, and I have no complaints about this.

Fernando Rodney is off to Toledo with Joel Zumaya off to Lakeland to begin their rehabs. If all goes well, both will have to be up by the end of the month. It will be important to watch these guys carefully, as shoulder injuries are nothing to downplay. Zumaya has a reputation to getting ahead of himself in these situations, something that could lead to possible setbacks. Getting them back will be helpful, but only because Leyland won't have to be creative with the bullpen.

On the Joyce/Thomas swap, I felt this was a lateral move. The team was able to capture a hot streak out of Joyce before some of his free-swinging tendencies got exposed. He goes to Toledo for playing time, while Thomas comes up to the bench for a while. The creative use of this last roster spot has been cool to watch, as several younger guys have come up to get a shot.

The decision to try to bring Dontrelle Willis back into the rotation has been met with some resistance, mostly because of the effectiveness of Armando Galarraga. I won't disagree that Galarraga shouldn't be the victim here, but it's pretty clear that he is due to come crashing back to earth. The creative part about this decision is having them split the next start. The really cool part about this is that if Willis struggles with his control, Galarraga can step in before the game gets out of control. If Willis does well, he can go 4-5 innings and Galarraga can take over. It's a creative solution to a potential problem, and I actually like it.

I wouldn't put too much stock into draft projections that have the Tigers taking reliever Josh Fields with the 21st pick. I don't think they will be looking for a quick fix relief pitcher in the first round. It's just neither a high percentage nor a high potential move.

Historical Draft Review #3 - 1974

Baseball Reference Page
Total WARP: 149.0
General Manager: Jim Campbell
Scouting Director: Bill LaJoie
Best Pick: Lance Parish, 1st Round, 96.9 WARP
Peak Season: 1980, 15.6 WARP

First Ten Picks plus notables:
1-16) Lance Parrish, C, Walnut, CA, 96.9 WARP
2-16) James Taylor, P, Estill Springs, TN, 0 WARP
3-16) Steve Viefhaus, IF, St. Louis CC, 0 WARP
4-16) Melvin Jackson, SS, Lemoyne-Owen CC, 0 WARP
5-16) Ronald Martinez, OF, Ventura, CA, 0 WARP
6-16) William Poland, P, La Cracenta, CA, 0 WARP
7-16) David Balbierz, P, Hilbert JC, 0 WARP
8-16) Dan Morogiello, P, Brooklyn, NY, Unsigned
9-16) Jake Battle, P, Detroit, MI, Unsigned
10-16) Mark Fidrych, P, Worcester, MA, 14.8 WARP
19-16) Bob Sykes, P, Miami-Dade CC, 37.3 WARP

Admittedly, a lot of this draft's value comes from players acquired. Lance Parrish had a fine career with the Tigers, but it was the Tigers' 1987 selection of Travis Fryman in the compensation round that shot up his value. Bob Sykes clearly wasn't the second-best player taken in the draft, but being dealt for Jerry Morales and Aurelio Lopez did a lot for the value the Tigers got out of his pick. There was a whole lot of nothing between Parrish and 10th round pick Mark Fidrych, whose story is so popular that there is no point in me telling it.

This was a very interesting draft on a few notes. First, this was Bill LaJoie's first draft as scouting director. I honestly don't know what role he played in his new role, but the Tigers had some pretty horrible drafts before he took over, including the disasterous 1973 (0.1 WARP) draft. Second, you can see how it was very boom or bust and also notice how the draft was mostly high school and junior college players. I'm not going to make a case for either, but it is pretty much what you would expect out of a draft with mostly high school players taken. I'll get to the top two drafts over the next two days, but those who know anything about the Tigers in the past 40 years should have a pretty good idea who was taken in those drafts.