Monday, September 07, 2009

Placido Polanco's Free Agent Type

Alas, I've been typecast as the Elias guy. As long as there is great Tigers coverage in other places, I guess I'm okay with that.

As I was running the Elias numbers (which were posted at MLBTradeRumors today), I saw that Placido Polanco was inching ever so close to Type A status. I don't really want to get into the implications of Polanco reaching Type A status, the likelihood of an arbitration offer, or the possibility of Scott Sizemore taking over the 2B job. No, this is simply going to be a close look at Polanco's ranking and the possibility that he reaches Type A status.

First, I'll post the AL 2B/3B/SS rankings, which can be found at the link above.

Name Team Type Score Pos
Alex Rodriguez New York A A 93.27731092 3B
Derek Jeter New York A A 90.47619048 SS
Michael Young Texas A 85.97883598 SS
Dustin Pedroia Boston A 85.71428571 2B
Marco Scutaro Toronto A 83.06878307 SS
Evan Longoria Tampa Bay A 82.35294118 3B
Ian Kinsler Texas A 80.71428571 2B
Jhonny Peralta Cleveland A 80.68783069 SS
Brian Roberts Baltimore A 77.85714286 2B
Jason Bartlett Tampa Bay A 77.77777778 SS
Mike Lowell Boston A 76.47058824 3B
Orlando Cabrera Minnesota A 75.92592593 SS
Chone Figgins Los Angeles A A 73.94957983 3B
Placido Polanco Detroit B 73.57142857 2B
Robinson Cano New York A B 71.42857143 2B
Alexei Ramirez Chicago A B 68.25396825 SS
Melvin Mora Baltimore B 68.06722689 3B
Erick Aybar Los Angeles A B 67.1957672 SS
Aaron Hill Toronto B 65.71428571 2B
Adrian Beltre Seattle B 65.54621849 3B
Mike Aviles Kansas City B 63.49206349 SS
Asdrubal Cabrera Cleveland B 62.85714286 2B
Jose Lopez Seattle B 62.85714286 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt Kansas City B 58.73015873 SS
Jack Wilson Seattle B 58.2010582 SS
Brendan Harris Minnesota B 57.40740741 SS
Cesar Izturis Baltimore None 56.61375661 SS
Howie Kendrick Los Angeles A None 56.42857143 2B
Brandon Inge Detroit None 55.46218487 3B
Ben Zobrist Tampa Bay None 55 2B
Ty Wigginton Baltimore None 54.62184874 3B
Bobby Crosby Oakland None 54.4973545 SS
Mark Ellis Oakland None 54.28571429 2B
Nick Punto Minnesota None 50.79365079 SS
Carlos Guillen Detroit None 50.42016807 3B
Akinori Iwamura Tampa Bay None 50 2B
Edwin Encarnacion Toronto None 49.57983193 3B
Maicer Izturis Los Angeles A None 49.28571429 2B
Joe Crede Minnesota None 48.7394958 3B
Ramon Santiago Detroit None 48.67724868 SS
Alberto Callaspo Kansas City None 48.57142857 2B
Elvis Andrus Texas None 44.70899471 SS
Jed Lowrie Boston None 43.91534392 SS
Jamey Carroll Cleveland None 42.85714286 2B
Omar Vizquel Texas None 40.21164021 SS
Adam Everett Detroit None 38.62433862 SS
Alex Gonzalez Boston None 38.0952381 SS
Adam Kennedy Oakland None 37.85714286 2B
Jack Hannahan Seattle None 33.61344538 3B
Jose Bautista Toronto None 32.77310924 3B
Gordon Beckham Chicago A None 31.51260504 3B
Cliff Pennington Oakland None 30.68783069 SS
Bill Hall Seattle None 28.57142857 3B
Chris Getz Chicago A None 26.42857143 2B
Nick Green Boston None 25.66137566 SS
Andy Marte Cleveland None 25.21008403 3B
Alexi Casilla Minnesota None 20.71428571 2B
Eric Chavez Oakland None 16.80672269 3B
Robert Andino Baltimore None 15.34391534 SS
John McDonald Toronto None 14.81481481 SS
Luis Valbuena Cleveland None 14.28571429 2B
Andy Cannizaro Chicago A None 14.28571429 SS
Robb Quinlan Los Angeles A None 13.02521008 3B
Josh Wilson Seattle None 12.16931217 SS
Jayson Nix Chicago A None 11.42857143 2B
Brent Lillibridge Chicago A None 3.703703704 SS
Esteban German Texas None 2.142857143 2B

Polanco is ever so close to Chone Figgins for that last Type A spot. Let's take a closer look. First, we need to remember that each of the players on this list get their score from players at their own position, noting that players' positions are defined by where they played the most games over the past two seasons. Here are the 2B:

Ian Kinsler Texas 80.71428571
Aaron Hill Toronto 65.71428571
Ben Zobrist Tampa Bay 55
Jose Lopez Seattle 62.85714286
Robinson Cano New York A 71.42857143
Dustin Pedroia Boston 85.71428571
Brian Roberts Baltimore 77.85714286
Mark Ellis Oakland 54.28571429
Placido Polanco Detroit 73.57142857
Howie Kendrick Los Angeles A 56.42857143
Maicer Izturis Los Angeles A 49.28571429
Adam Kennedy Oakland 37.85714286
Jayson Nix Chicago A 11.42857143
Asdrubal Cabrera Cleveland 62.85714286
Alberto Callaspo Kansas City 48.57142857
Akinori Iwamura Tampa Bay 50
Luis Valbuena Cleveland 14.28571429
Alexi Casilla Minnesota 20.71428571
Jamey Carroll Cleveland 42.85714286
Chris Getz Chicago A 26.42857143
Esteban German Texas 2.142857143


Possible Position Changes
If one of these players "changes" positions, everybody's ranking will change. The ones who are within 15 games of moving to another position are as follows:

Ben Zobrist*: 88 games at 2B, 75 games in OF
Maicer Izturis: 79 games at 2B, 76 games at SS
Esteban German**: 29 games at 2B, 29 games at OF

*Ben Zobrist, by the way, is getting straight up overlooked in the AL MVP race.
**I'm honestly not sure what happens in the event of a tie. My projections default to the lower scorebook number. It was just easier that way.

And players at other positions who could move to second base:
Brent Lillibridge: 26 games at SS, 16 games at 2B
Eric Patterson: 24 games at 2B, 3o games at OF

Zobrist (Did I mention he deserves MVP mention?) has been playing a lot of outfield since Akinori Iwamura returned. Will he get 14 more starts in the outfield than second base? Possibly.

Barring an Erick Aybar injury, Maicer Izturis will probably continue to play more second than short this year. We'll leave him with the second basemen.

German hasn't played in the outfield at all with the Rangers this year. As a result, I'll say he'll get some "Rest Ian Kinsler" time and qualify at 2B.

Brent Lillibridge, Chicago's second utility infielder, probably won't play enough to make up a 10 game difference. He stays at shortstop.

Eric Patterson has been playing mostly outfield with the A's this year. He won't make the move to 2B.

In total, Ben Zobrist is the only player who projects to move. How do the 2B look without Ben Zobrist, who is more qualified to win the AL MVP than Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Cabrera?

Dustin Pedroia Boston 86.46616541
Ian Kinsler Texas 81.20300752
Brian Roberts Baltimore 78.94736842
Placido Polanco Detroit 73.68421053
Robinson Cano New York A 72.18045113
Aaron Hill Toronto 64.66165414
Jose Lopez Seattle 63.15789474
Asdrubal Cabrera Cleveland 63.15789474
Howie Kendrick Los Angeles A 56.39097744
Mark Ellis Oakland 54.88721805
Akinori Iwamura Tampa Bay 50.37593985
Maicer Izturis Los Angeles A 48.87218045
Alberto Callaspo Kansas City 48.87218045
Jamey Carroll Cleveland 42.85714286
Adam Kennedy Oakland 37.59398496
Chris Getz Chicago A 26.31578947
Alexi Casilla Minnesota 21.05263158
Luis Valbuena Cleveland 15.03759398
Jayson Nix Chicago A 12.03007519
Esteban German Texas 2.255639098

You can see Polanco is helped, but not enough.

Let's start digging into the statistics a bit:

Plate Appearances
Ian Kinsler 1354.0394
Dustin Pedroia 1328
Brian Roberts 1312
Jose Lopez 1236
Robinson Cano 1215
Placido Polanco 1184
Akinori Iwamura 1137.5
Aaron Hill 1093.7778
Mark Ellis 1000.4535
Asdrubal Cabrera 993.66238
Alberto Callaspo 904.26335
Adam Kennedy 858
Howie Kendrick 857.50549
Ben Zobrist 829.89116
Maicer Izturis 839.45848
Jamey Carroll 773.18395
Alexi Casilla 734.29393
Chris Getz 397.78797
Luis Valbuena 369
Jayson Nix 339.17419
Esteban German 275.53459

Do you see Polanco getting 30 more PA's than Robinson Cano the rest of the year? Me either. I also don't see Hill or Iwamura coming from behind to catch him, even though they are going to get roughly 1.2 PA's per PA the rest of the year. Polanco will not move up or down in this category.

Homeruns

Ian Kinsler 56.77
Aaron Hill 42.17
Ben Zobrist 40.12
Jose Lopez 39
Robinson Cano 37
Dustin Pedroia 27
Brian Roberts 23
Mark Ellis 22.01
Placido Polanco 18
Howie Kendrick 13.42
Maicer Izturis 13.38
Adam Kennedy 12
Jayson Nix 11.96
Asdrubal Cabrera 11.92
Alberto Callaspo 9.594
Akinori Iwamura 8.75
Luis Valbuena 8
Alexi Casilla 7.537
Jamey Carroll 3.381
Chris Getz 2.133
Esteban German 0

The same goes for homeruns, where there are 4+ homers separating Polanco from the players in front of and behind him. He won't move up or down here unless Ben Zobrist moves over to the outfielders.

RBI's

Ian Kinsler 180
Jose Lopez 173
Robinson Cano 147
Aaron Hill 145.7
Dustin Pedroia 140
Brian Roberts 122
Placido Polanco 121
Ben Zobrist 116.9
Asdrubal Cabrera 112.7
Maicer Izturis 111.9
Mark Ellis 110.1
Howie Kendrick 108.6
Adam Kennedy 88
Alberto Callaspo 83.95
Akinori Iwamura 83.75
Alexi Casilla 69.98
Jamey Carroll 65.37
Chris Getz 34.13
Jayson Nix 33.7
Luis Valbuena 25
Esteban German 23.31

Things are a bit tighter with RBI's. Polanco is only one RBI behind Brian Roberts, but only 4 above the AL's second most valuable player. If Polanco can pass Roberts, while holding off Zobrist, he will gain a point in the standings. A point in the standings, with 20 2B in the rankings, will be good for 1*100/(20*7)=.714 points in the rankings. Assuming Figgins stays put and all of the other categories stay the same, Polanco could reach Type A status by out-RBI ing Roberts and Zobrist.

Batting Average

Dustin Pedroia 0.310810811
Alberto Callaspo 0.298118669
Howie Kendrick 0.295902883
Robinson Cano 0.293554007
Placido Polanco 0.293040293
Brian Roberts 0.290546401
Asdrubal Cabrera 0.28875
Ian Kinsler 0.287148594
Maicer Izturis 0.28363047
Jose Lopez 0.283491789
Adam Kennedy 0.282802548
Jamey Carroll 0.281879195
Akinori Iwamura 0.279156328
Aaron Hill 0.279040404
Chris Getz 0.275147929
Ben Zobrist 0.273322422
Mark Ellis 0.249655172
Alexi Casilla 0.249169435
Luis Valbuena 0.241176471
Esteban German 0.238095238
Jayson Nix 0.205882353

With any rate stats, you have to worry about players who have such little playing time that a 3/3 day could move them all the way up to the top of the list. Luckily, there are no such players among this year's 2B crop. You can see Polanco is in the midst of a tight group of players. As such, a strong or weak finish to the year from him or one of the players around him (Kendrick, Cano, Roberts, Cabrera, or Kinsler) will affect his rankings. Polanco can likely move ahead of two players (+1.428 in the rankings) or move behind three (-2.143).

OBP
Ben Zobrist 0.378976487
Dustin Pedroia 0.371016692
Brian Roberts 0.364678899
Jamey Carroll 0.359583952
Asdrubal Cabrera 0.356026786
Akinori Iwamura 0.35209713
Ian Kinsler 0.351302785
Alberto Callaspo 0.35059761
Maicer Izturis 0.344023324
Placido Polanco 0.336170213
Chris Getz 0.333333333
Adam Kennedy 0.332942556
Howie Kendrick 0.331428571
Robinson Cano 0.326194399
Aaron Hill 0.324324324
Mark Ellis 0.319753086
Jose Lopez 0.312143439
Alexi Casilla 0.311844078
Esteban German 0.30078125
Luis Valbuena 0.298102981
Jayson Nix 0.296774194

Getz and Kennedy are right on Polanco's heals, and Izturis will probably be hard to catch. There is a potential for a move behind two players (-1.428).

Fielding Percentage
Asdrubal Cabrera 0.993630573
Mark Ellis 0.992639327
Placido Polanco 0.992307692
Jamey Carroll 0.991683992
Aaron Hill 0.991351351
Dustin Pedroia 0.990740741
Howie Kendrick 0.990123457
Maicer Izturis 0.989041096
Ben Zobrist 0.988795518
Brian Roberts 0.986373959
Akinori Iwamura 0.98569857
Chris Getz 0.984649123
Luis Valbuena 0.984496124
Robinson Cano 0.984016678
Ian Kinsler 0.979953739
Jose Lopez 0.978740157
Jayson Nix 0.978647687
Alberto Callaspo 0.977746871
Alexi Casilla 0.977719528
Adam Kennedy 0.976190476
Esteban German 0.969924812

I'd say Polanco is relatively secure here. Unless he goes on an error binge, he probably won't be moving up or down enough to change his ranking. Asdrubal Cabrera won't be moving anywhere, given that he's playing shortstop these days. Errors are so random, that this is tough to predict.

Total Chances (A+E+PO)
Ian Kinsler 1566.63
Robinson Cano 1439
Brian Roberts 1321
Placido Polanco 1300
Dustin Pedroia 1296
Jose Lopez 1270
Aaron Hill 1181.94
Mark Ellis 1163.12
Akinori Iwamura 1136.25
Howie Kendrick 988.022
Alberto Callaspo 862.288
Alexi Casilla 821.505
Asdrubal Cabrera 680.502
Adam Kennedy 588
Jamey Carroll 542.13
Chris Getz 486.304
Maicer Izturis 444.061
Ben Zobrist 409.214
Luis Valbuena 387
Jayson Nix 305.474
Esteban German 140.947

Pedroia could catch Polanco here (-.714), but it's not exactly likely. There aren't likely to be any significant changes at the top, given that everybody around Polanco is playing every day at 2B.


So, assuming Zobrist stays at 2B, Polanco could possibly move up a total of 2.143 points and down a total of 3.790. The math gets a bit complicated if Mauer's should-be MVP runner up gets a lot of time in the outfield this year.

Overall, Polanco has the potential to move into Type A range with a strong batting average, no errors, and plenty of RBI's.

Next time, I'll take a look at Chone Figgins and the possibility that he can move behind Polanco.

15 comments:

Mr. Bill said...

Very interesting post although I don't agree with your premise that Zobrist will get 14 more games in the outfield than 2B for the rest of the season. The Rays only have 24 games remaining in the season and while Zobrist has rarely started at 2B, he's made 4 appearances there in the 11 games since Iwamura's return. Doing some simple back of the envelope type calculations according to current usage Zobrist is likely to have 10 appearances at 2B and 22 in the outfield and will fall just short of qualifying as an outfielder for the Elias rankings. This also assumes that Iwamura will continue to get regular playing time at 2B down the stretch. In his 29 AB since returning he's only hitting .209 with one double.

Eddie B said...

Each of the statistical category lists are supposed to have numbers. Is anybody having problems seeing them?

Patrick said...

Eddie: How is that Zobrist "position switch" count coming along? I think it's very interesting.
The whole issue about how a jump to Type A status would impact Polanco's pending free agency is an interesting one. He is clearly hurt as a free agent if he improves his performance to Type A- then the "Orlando syndrome" comes into play. I suppose that would be good news to those that want to see him back, as I do. I think that offering him arby is a no brainer. DD should definitely be willing to take him back for a year, and I seriously doubt he'd want that, at his age and position.
P.S. - I don't see numbers next to the player names, if that's where they're supposed to be.

Patrick said...

If I'm getting this correct, it seems that the two best ways for Polanco to achieve Type A status are:
1. PP has at least two more RBI than Brian Roberts from 9/7 to the end of the season or
2. Ben Zobrist plays 15 more games in the OF than he does at 2B from 9/7 to the end of the season.
The former should vault PP ahead of Figgins, all other things being equal, and the latter will have an unknown impact on the rankings.
As of today, 9/26/09, Roberts has added 11 RBI, and Polanco has added 6. So PP would need 7 more RBI than Roberts by the end of the season.
Starting on 9/8, Zobrist has played 6 games at 2B, 8 games in the OF, one at DH, and one at RF and 2B. At that rate, he won't be dropping off the list of 2B/3B/SS. He's also played 3 of the last 4 games at 2B. If he were to come off the list, it seems that would move PP down, rather than up, since he's ahead of Zobrist overall, and ahead of him in TC, Avg, RBI, PA, and F Pct. Zobrist also has 6 RBI since 9/7, so no change there.
It looks to me like the only way that PP will move up to Type A status is for Figgins to drop a notch in at least one category.

Patrick said...

Numbers- if you mean 1, 2, 3, 4, there are no numbers there. If you mean that statistical data to the right of a player's name, those are there, but they run into the position without a space.

Patrick said...

Okay, I left out batting average, and apparently Polanco's solid .500 avg over the past week has vaulted him over Figgins. He was right on the heels of Cano, Kendrick, and Callaspo in that category, and each of them is hitting from .348 to .386 for the month of September, but "only" in the .350 range (.350 for Kendrick) in the past week.
I hope that Figgins dropping to Type B status doesn't encourage Kenny Williams to sign him.

Mr. Bill said...

Amazing. Looks like Placido Polanco made it to type A status. I'm not sure anyone would be willing to give up a first round pick for him though. It wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of the Orlando Cabrera situation from last year.

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