As I was running the Elias numbers (which were posted at MLBTradeRumors today), I saw that Placido Polanco was inching ever so close to Type A status. I don't really want to get into the implications of Polanco reaching Type A status, the likelihood of an arbitration offer, or the possibility of Scott Sizemore taking over the 2B job. No, this is simply going to be a close look at Polanco's ranking and the possibility that he reaches Type A status.
First, I'll post the AL 2B/3B/SS rankings, which can be found at the link above.
| Name | Team | Type | Score | Pos |
| Alex Rodriguez | New York A | A | 93.27731092 | 3B |
| Derek Jeter | New York A | A | 90.47619048 | SS |
| Michael Young | Texas | A | 85.97883598 | SS |
| Dustin Pedroia | Boston | A | 85.71428571 | 2B |
| Marco Scutaro | Toronto | A | 83.06878307 | SS |
| Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay | A | 82.35294118 | 3B |
| Ian Kinsler | Texas | A | 80.71428571 | 2B |
| Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland | A | 80.68783069 | SS |
| Brian Roberts | Baltimore | A | 77.85714286 | 2B |
| Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay | A | 77.77777778 | SS |
| Mike Lowell | Boston | A | 76.47058824 | 3B |
| Orlando Cabrera | Minnesota | A | 75.92592593 | SS |
| Chone Figgins | Los Angeles A | A | 73.94957983 | 3B |
| Placido Polanco | Detroit | B | 73.57142857 | 2B |
| Robinson Cano | New York A | B | 71.42857143 | 2B |
| Alexei Ramirez | Chicago A | B | 68.25396825 | SS |
| Melvin Mora | Baltimore | B | 68.06722689 | 3B |
| Erick Aybar | Los Angeles A | B | 67.1957672 | SS |
| Aaron Hill | Toronto | B | 65.71428571 | 2B |
| Adrian Beltre | Seattle | B | 65.54621849 | 3B |
| Mike Aviles | Kansas City | B | 63.49206349 | SS |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland | B | 62.85714286 | 2B |
| Jose Lopez | Seattle | B | 62.85714286 | 2B |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | Kansas City | B | 58.73015873 | SS |
| Jack Wilson | Seattle | B | 58.2010582 | SS |
| Brendan Harris | Minnesota | B | 57.40740741 | SS |
| Cesar Izturis | Baltimore | None | 56.61375661 | SS |
| Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles A | None | 56.42857143 | 2B |
| Brandon Inge | Detroit | None | 55.46218487 | 3B |
| Ben Zobrist | Tampa Bay | None | 55 | 2B |
| Ty Wigginton | Baltimore | None | 54.62184874 | 3B |
| Bobby Crosby | Oakland | None | 54.4973545 | SS |
| Mark Ellis | Oakland | None | 54.28571429 | 2B |
| Nick Punto | Minnesota | None | 50.79365079 | SS |
| Carlos Guillen | Detroit | None | 50.42016807 | 3B |
| Akinori Iwamura | Tampa Bay | None | 50 | 2B |
| Edwin Encarnacion | Toronto | None | 49.57983193 | 3B |
| Maicer Izturis | Los Angeles A | None | 49.28571429 | 2B |
| Joe Crede | Minnesota | None | 48.7394958 | 3B |
| Ramon Santiago | Detroit | None | 48.67724868 | SS |
| Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City | None | 48.57142857 | 2B |
| Elvis Andrus | Texas | None | 44.70899471 | SS |
| Jed Lowrie | Boston | None | 43.91534392 | SS |
| Jamey Carroll | Cleveland | None | 42.85714286 | 2B |
| Omar Vizquel | Texas | None | 40.21164021 | SS |
| Adam Everett | Detroit | None | 38.62433862 | SS |
| Alex Gonzalez | Boston | None | 38.0952381 | SS |
| Adam Kennedy | Oakland | None | 37.85714286 | 2B |
| Jack Hannahan | Seattle | None | 33.61344538 | 3B |
| Jose Bautista | Toronto | None | 32.77310924 | 3B |
| Gordon Beckham | Chicago A | None | 31.51260504 | 3B |
| Cliff Pennington | Oakland | None | 30.68783069 | SS |
| Bill Hall | Seattle | None | 28.57142857 | 3B |
| Chris Getz | Chicago A | None | 26.42857143 | 2B |
| Nick Green | Boston | None | 25.66137566 | SS |
| Andy Marte | Cleveland | None | 25.21008403 | 3B |
| Alexi Casilla | Minnesota | None | 20.71428571 | 2B |
| Eric Chavez | Oakland | None | 16.80672269 | 3B |
| Robert Andino | Baltimore | None | 15.34391534 | SS |
| John McDonald | Toronto | None | 14.81481481 | SS |
| Luis Valbuena | Cleveland | None | 14.28571429 | 2B |
| Andy Cannizaro | Chicago A | None | 14.28571429 | SS |
| Robb Quinlan | Los Angeles A | None | 13.02521008 | 3B |
| Josh Wilson | Seattle | None | 12.16931217 | SS |
| Jayson Nix | Chicago A | None | 11.42857143 | 2B |
| Brent Lillibridge | Chicago A | None | 3.703703704 | SS |
| Esteban German | Texas | None | 2.142857143 | 2B |
Polanco is ever so close to Chone Figgins for that last Type A spot. Let's take a closer look. First, we need to remember that each of the players on this list get their score from players at their own position, noting that players' positions are defined by where they played the most games over the past two seasons. Here are the 2B:
| Ian Kinsler | Texas | 80.71428571 |
| Aaron Hill | Toronto | 65.71428571 |
| Ben Zobrist | Tampa Bay | 55 |
| Jose Lopez | Seattle | 62.85714286 |
| Robinson Cano | New York A | 71.42857143 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Boston | 85.71428571 |
| Brian Roberts | Baltimore | 77.85714286 |
| Mark Ellis | Oakland | 54.28571429 |
| Placido Polanco | Detroit | 73.57142857 |
| Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles A | 56.42857143 |
| Maicer Izturis | Los Angeles A | 49.28571429 |
| Adam Kennedy | Oakland | 37.85714286 |
| Jayson Nix | Chicago A | 11.42857143 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland | 62.85714286 |
| Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City | 48.57142857 |
| Akinori Iwamura | Tampa Bay | 50 |
| Luis Valbuena | Cleveland | 14.28571429 |
| Alexi Casilla | Minnesota | 20.71428571 |
| Jamey Carroll | Cleveland | 42.85714286 |
| Chris Getz | Chicago A | 26.42857143 |
| Esteban German | Texas | 2.142857143 |
Possible Position Changes
If one of these players "changes" positions, everybody's ranking will change. The ones who are within 15 games of moving to another position are as follows:
Ben Zobrist*: 88 games at 2B, 75 games in OF
Maicer Izturis: 79 games at 2B, 76 games at SS
Esteban German**: 29 games at 2B, 29 games at OF
*Ben Zobrist, by the way, is getting straight up overlooked in the AL MVP race.
**I'm honestly not sure what happens in the event of a tie. My projections default to the lower scorebook number. It was just easier that way.
And players at other positions who could move to second base:
Brent Lillibridge: 26 games at SS, 16 games at 2B
Eric Patterson: 24 games at 2B, 3o games at OF
Zobrist (Did I mention he deserves MVP mention?) has been playing a lot of outfield since Akinori Iwamura returned. Will he get 14 more starts in the outfield than second base? Possibly.
Barring an Erick Aybar injury, Maicer Izturis will probably continue to play more second than short this year. We'll leave him with the second basemen.
German hasn't played in the outfield at all with the Rangers this year. As a result, I'll say he'll get some "Rest Ian Kinsler" time and qualify at 2B.
Brent Lillibridge, Chicago's second utility infielder, probably won't play enough to make up a 10 game difference. He stays at shortstop.
Eric Patterson has been playing mostly outfield with the A's this year. He won't make the move to 2B.
In total, Ben Zobrist is the only player who projects to move. How do the 2B look without Ben Zobrist, who is more qualified to win the AL MVP than Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Cabrera?
| Dustin Pedroia | Boston | 86.46616541 |
| Ian Kinsler | Texas | 81.20300752 |
| Brian Roberts | Baltimore | 78.94736842 |
| Placido Polanco | Detroit | 73.68421053 |
| Robinson Cano | New York A | 72.18045113 |
| Aaron Hill | Toronto | 64.66165414 |
| Jose Lopez | Seattle | 63.15789474 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland | 63.15789474 |
| Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles A | 56.39097744 |
| Mark Ellis | Oakland | 54.88721805 |
| Akinori Iwamura | Tampa Bay | 50.37593985 |
| Maicer Izturis | Los Angeles A | 48.87218045 |
| Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City | 48.87218045 |
| Jamey Carroll | Cleveland | 42.85714286 |
| Adam Kennedy | Oakland | 37.59398496 |
| Chris Getz | Chicago A | 26.31578947 |
| Alexi Casilla | Minnesota | 21.05263158 |
| Luis Valbuena | Cleveland | 15.03759398 |
| Jayson Nix | Chicago A | 12.03007519 |
| Esteban German | Texas | 2.255639098 |
You can see Polanco is helped, but not enough.
Let's start digging into the statistics a bit:
Plate Appearances
| Ian Kinsler | 1354.0394 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 1328 |
| Brian Roberts | 1312 |
| Jose Lopez | 1236 |
| Robinson Cano | 1215 |
| Placido Polanco | 1184 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 1137.5 |
| Aaron Hill | 1093.7778 |
| Mark Ellis | 1000.4535 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 993.66238 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 904.26335 |
| Adam Kennedy | 858 |
| Howie Kendrick | 857.50549 |
| Ben Zobrist | 829.89116 |
| Maicer Izturis | 839.45848 |
| Jamey Carroll | 773.18395 |
| Alexi Casilla | 734.29393 |
| Chris Getz | 397.78797 |
| Luis Valbuena | 369 |
| Jayson Nix | 339.17419 |
| Esteban German | 275.53459 |
Do you see Polanco getting 30 more PA's than Robinson Cano the rest of the year? Me either. I also don't see Hill or Iwamura coming from behind to catch him, even though they are going to get roughly 1.2 PA's per PA the rest of the year. Polanco will not move up or down in this category.
Homeruns
| Ian Kinsler | 56.77 |
| Aaron Hill | 42.17 |
| Ben Zobrist | 40.12 |
| Jose Lopez | 39 |
| Robinson Cano | 37 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 27 |
| Brian Roberts | 23 |
| Mark Ellis | 22.01 |
| Placido Polanco | 18 |
| Howie Kendrick | 13.42 |
| Maicer Izturis | 13.38 |
| Adam Kennedy | 12 |
| Jayson Nix | 11.96 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 11.92 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 9.594 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 8.75 |
| Luis Valbuena | 8 |
| Alexi Casilla | 7.537 |
| Jamey Carroll | 3.381 |
| Chris Getz | 2.133 |
| Esteban German | 0 |
The same goes for homeruns, where there are 4+ homers separating Polanco from the players in front of and behind him. He won't move up or down here unless Ben Zobrist moves over to the outfielders.
RBI's
| Ian Kinsler | 180 |
| Jose Lopez | 173 |
| Robinson Cano | 147 |
| Aaron Hill | 145.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 140 |
| Brian Roberts | 122 |
| Placido Polanco | 121 |
| Ben Zobrist | 116.9 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 112.7 |
| Maicer Izturis | 111.9 |
| Mark Ellis | 110.1 |
| Howie Kendrick | 108.6 |
| Adam Kennedy | 88 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 83.95 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 83.75 |
| Alexi Casilla | 69.98 |
| Jamey Carroll | 65.37 |
| Chris Getz | 34.13 |
| Jayson Nix | 33.7 |
| Luis Valbuena | 25 |
| Esteban German | 23.31 |
Things are a bit tighter with RBI's. Polanco is only one RBI behind Brian Roberts, but only 4 above the AL's second most valuable player. If Polanco can pass Roberts, while holding off Zobrist, he will gain a point in the standings. A point in the standings, with 20 2B in the rankings, will be good for 1*100/(20*7)=.714 points in the rankings. Assuming Figgins stays put and all of the other categories stay the same, Polanco could reach Type A status by out-RBI ing Roberts and Zobrist.
Batting Average
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.310810811 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 0.298118669 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.295902883 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.293554007 |
| Placido Polanco | 0.293040293 |
| Brian Roberts | 0.290546401 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.28875 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.287148594 |
| Maicer Izturis | 0.28363047 |
| Jose Lopez | 0.283491789 |
| Adam Kennedy | 0.282802548 |
| Jamey Carroll | 0.281879195 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 0.279156328 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.279040404 |
| Chris Getz | 0.275147929 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.273322422 |
| Mark Ellis | 0.249655172 |
| Alexi Casilla | 0.249169435 |
| Luis Valbuena | 0.241176471 |
| Esteban German | 0.238095238 |
| Jayson Nix | 0.205882353 |
With any rate stats, you have to worry about players who have such little playing time that a 3/3 day could move them all the way up to the top of the list. Luckily, there are no such players among this year's 2B crop. You can see Polanco is in the midst of a tight group of players. As such, a strong or weak finish to the year from him or one of the players around him (Kendrick, Cano, Roberts, Cabrera, or Kinsler) will affect his rankings. Polanco can likely move ahead of two players (+1.428 in the rankings) or move behind three (-2.143).
OBP
| Ben Zobrist | 0.378976487 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.371016692 |
| Brian Roberts | 0.364678899 |
| Jamey Carroll | 0.359583952 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.356026786 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 0.35209713 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.351302785 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 0.35059761 |
| Maicer Izturis | 0.344023324 |
| Placido Polanco | 0.336170213 |
| Chris Getz | 0.333333333 |
| Adam Kennedy | 0.332942556 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.331428571 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.326194399 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.324324324 |
| Mark Ellis | 0.319753086 |
| Jose Lopez | 0.312143439 |
| Alexi Casilla | 0.311844078 |
| Esteban German | 0.30078125 |
| Luis Valbuena | 0.298102981 |
| Jayson Nix | 0.296774194 |
Getz and Kennedy are right on Polanco's heals, and Izturis will probably be hard to catch. There is a potential for a move behind two players (-1.428).
Fielding Percentage
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.993630573 |
| Mark Ellis | 0.992639327 |
| Placido Polanco | 0.992307692 |
| Jamey Carroll | 0.991683992 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.991351351 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.990740741 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.990123457 |
| Maicer Izturis | 0.989041096 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.988795518 |
| Brian Roberts | 0.986373959 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 0.98569857 |
| Chris Getz | 0.984649123 |
| Luis Valbuena | 0.984496124 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.984016678 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.979953739 |
| Jose Lopez | 0.978740157 |
| Jayson Nix | 0.978647687 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 0.977746871 |
| Alexi Casilla | 0.977719528 |
| Adam Kennedy | 0.976190476 |
| Esteban German | 0.969924812 |
I'd say Polanco is relatively secure here. Unless he goes on an error binge, he probably won't be moving up or down enough to change his ranking. Asdrubal Cabrera won't be moving anywhere, given that he's playing shortstop these days. Errors are so random, that this is tough to predict.
Total Chances (A+E+PO)
| Ian Kinsler | 1566.63 |
| Robinson Cano | 1439 |
| Brian Roberts | 1321 |
| Placido Polanco | 1300 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 1296 |
| Jose Lopez | 1270 |
| Aaron Hill | 1181.94 |
| Mark Ellis | 1163.12 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 1136.25 |
| Howie Kendrick | 988.022 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 862.288 |
| Alexi Casilla | 821.505 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 680.502 |
| Adam Kennedy | 588 |
| Jamey Carroll | 542.13 |
| Chris Getz | 486.304 |
| Maicer Izturis | 444.061 |
| Ben Zobrist | 409.214 |
| Luis Valbuena | 387 |
| Jayson Nix | 305.474 |
| Esteban German | 140.947 |
Pedroia could catch Polanco here (-.714), but it's not exactly likely. There aren't likely to be any significant changes at the top, given that everybody around Polanco is playing every day at 2B.
So, assuming Zobrist stays at 2B, Polanco could possibly move up a total of 2.143 points and down a total of 3.790. The math gets a bit complicated if Mauer's should-be MVP runner up gets a lot of time in the outfield this year.
Overall, Polanco has the potential to move into Type A range with a strong batting average, no errors, and plenty of RBI's.
Next time, I'll take a look at Chone Figgins and the possibility that he can move behind Polanco.
9 comments:
Very interesting post although I don't agree with your premise that Zobrist will get 14 more games in the outfield than 2B for the rest of the season. The Rays only have 24 games remaining in the season and while Zobrist has rarely started at 2B, he's made 4 appearances there in the 11 games since Iwamura's return. Doing some simple back of the envelope type calculations according to current usage Zobrist is likely to have 10 appearances at 2B and 22 in the outfield and will fall just short of qualifying as an outfielder for the Elias rankings. This also assumes that Iwamura will continue to get regular playing time at 2B down the stretch. In his 29 AB since returning he's only hitting .209 with one double.
Each of the statistical category lists are supposed to have numbers. Is anybody having problems seeing them?
Eddie: How is that Zobrist "position switch" count coming along? I think it's very interesting.
The whole issue about how a jump to Type A status would impact Polanco's pending free agency is an interesting one. He is clearly hurt as a free agent if he improves his performance to Type A- then the "Orlando syndrome" comes into play. I suppose that would be good news to those that want to see him back, as I do. I think that offering him arby is a no brainer. DD should definitely be willing to take him back for a year, and I seriously doubt he'd want that, at his age and position.
P.S. - I don't see numbers next to the player names, if that's where they're supposed to be.
If I'm getting this correct, it seems that the two best ways for Polanco to achieve Type A status are:
1. PP has at least two more RBI than Brian Roberts from 9/7 to the end of the season or
2. Ben Zobrist plays 15 more games in the OF than he does at 2B from 9/7 to the end of the season.
The former should vault PP ahead of Figgins, all other things being equal, and the latter will have an unknown impact on the rankings.
As of today, 9/26/09, Roberts has added 11 RBI, and Polanco has added 6. So PP would need 7 more RBI than Roberts by the end of the season.
Starting on 9/8, Zobrist has played 6 games at 2B, 8 games in the OF, one at DH, and one at RF and 2B. At that rate, he won't be dropping off the list of 2B/3B/SS. He's also played 3 of the last 4 games at 2B. If he were to come off the list, it seems that would move PP down, rather than up, since he's ahead of Zobrist overall, and ahead of him in TC, Avg, RBI, PA, and F Pct. Zobrist also has 6 RBI since 9/7, so no change there.
It looks to me like the only way that PP will move up to Type A status is for Figgins to drop a notch in at least one category.
Numbers- if you mean 1, 2, 3, 4, there are no numbers there. If you mean that statistical data to the right of a player's name, those are there, but they run into the position without a space.
Okay, I left out batting average, and apparently Polanco's solid .500 avg over the past week has vaulted him over Figgins. He was right on the heels of Cano, Kendrick, and Callaspo in that category, and each of them is hitting from .348 to .386 for the month of September, but "only" in the .350 range (.350 for Kendrick) in the past week.
I hope that Figgins dropping to Type B status doesn't encourage Kenny Williams to sign him.
Amazing. Looks like Placido Polanco made it to type A status. I'm not sure anyone would be willing to give up a first round pick for him though. It wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of the Orlando Cabrera situation from last year.
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