Toledo's Lineup Tonight

Freddy Guzman LF
Timo Perez DH
Mike Hessman SS
Jeff Larish 3B
Brent Clevlen CF
Matt Joyce RF
Fernando Seguignol 1B
Erick Almonte 2B
Max St. Pierre C

I was taken aback by this lineup. I read somewhere that Leyland wanted Larish playing in places other than first base. I assumed if Larish ended up at third, Hessman would be at first. I'm curious how Hessman and Larish played on the left side of the infield, as both are being challenged defensively.

What is there to lose by doing this? Maybe the team will give up a few more hits, but guys blocked by incumbents need to be able to play multiple positions to secure a bench spot in the future.

Scanning the System: Catchers

Once every week or so, I plan to keep an eye on the minor league system on a position by position basis. Each player will have their BA/OBP/SLG split shown, as well as their expected BA/OBP/SLG split. The "expected" value is derived from analysis by Baseball Prospectus's Mark Normandin that shows that given normal luck with balls in play, a player's batting average on balls in play will be equal to his line drive rate plus .120. What I've done is take the difference, figure out how many extra singles they should have hit so far and added to their stats. All singles are rounded to the nearest integer so some players' numbers will be identical. The intent of this is to try and weed out flukes and guys who have benefited from good luck and those who have suffered from bad luck. It's important to point out that when you are dealing with such small samples that conclusions are very hard to come to at this point. Starting with catchers:

Detroit:
Ivan Rodriguez, 36
Actual: .189/.246/.321
Expected: .183/.333/.415

Pudge has a BABIP of only .214 this season, and according to the data, has been hitting the ball reasonably well. It's way too soon to panic, as he should be fine as soon as balls start finding holes. I don't have Inge in my system as a catcher, even though he's technically the backup.

Toledo:
Dane Sardinha, 28
Actual: .250/.306/.375
Expected: .250/.306/.375

Nick Trzesniak, 27
Actual: .077/.143/.077
Expected: .143/.214/.143

It's way too early, as I said.

Erie:
Dusty Ryan, 23
Actual: .286/.375/.689
Expected: .286/.375/.689

Max St. Pierre, 28
Actual: .333/.389/.515
Expected: .272/.333/.454

Is it too early to jump back on the Dusty Ryan bandwagon? Probably. A lot of catchers, though, are late bloomers with the bat. If he keeps up this offensive performance over the course of the season, he may be for real. Then again, we are talking about 32 plate appearances.

Lakeland:
James Skelton, 22
Actual: .321/.441/.321
Expected: .285/.412/.285

Jeff Kunkel, 25
Actual: .286/.318/.333
Expected: .191/.227/.242

Skelton's never really hit for much power, and has yet to have an extra-base hit this year. Jeff Kunkel is a defense first guy, so he isn't expected to hit. Don't expect his numbers to stay decent.

West Michigan:
Jordan Newton, 22
Actual: .387/.424/.484
Expected .322/.363/.419

Joe Bowen, 19
Actual: .111/.238/.167
Expected: .167/.286/.223

Adrian Casanova, 24
Actual: .000/.333/.000

Bowen was placed on the disabled list this week with a hyper-extended elbow, and replaced by Casanova, who has only put one ball in play in his three plate appearances. Even without this excercise, you could probably see that Newton's numbers were batting average driven. He's still been solid this season, a refreshing turnaround from his first two seasons. I did see first hand this week why there are doubts about his ability to stay behind the plate, as he two-hopped a ball to the shortstop side on a steal attempt.

More Minor League Signings

Making the first news in a while, the Tigers announced the signings of 11 players yesterday, four of which have already been known. While such news would enable us to get away from the mainstream media revealing their collective ignorance of the performance enhancing drug or Hall of Fame debates, it's not likely that these players will contribute much to the Detroit Tigers as a whole.

We'll start with the guys who we've already known about I've already covered pitchers Francis Beltran, Marcelo Perez, and Jon Connolly. Dane Sardinha was announced several weeks ago, and he projects to be the team's third catcher as things stand right now. Sardinha was drafted by the Reds in 2000 as a player with great defensive polish. They banked on his bat developing, but it never happened. Throughout his professional career, Sardinha's offensive results have been putrid at best. Luckily, he will only be counted on if Vance Wilson's recovery from Tommy John Surgery requires a short term fix in April.

Pitchers Anastacio Martinez, Jeremy Johnson, and Ian Ostlund were all in the Tigers' system last year, before becoming six-year free agents. Martinez was picked up from Washington's system and has bounced around. He was a reliever and spot starter for Toledo towards the end of the season. I would expect him to do much of the same this year. Ostlund was originally drafted by the Tigers in 2001, and has served as a lefty reliever, bouncing between Erie and Toledo last season. Jeremy Johnson was hot stuff a few years ago before undergoing major shoulder surgery. He became a valuable part of Toledo's bullpen this past season. Scouts still aren't impressed with his repertoire and doubt he'll be a force with the big club.

Utility men Henry Mateo and Caonabo Cosme will offer much needed flexibility to Toledo and Erie, which are restricted to 23 and 24-man roster limits. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to offer anything to the Tigers. Jackson Melian will probably return in his Kirk Airoso role as Erie's DH and provide a stable bat to Erie's lineup. The history of Jackson Melian's prospect-hood is pretty interesting and might be worth an entry during these January doldrums.

Finally, Max St. Pierre returns after a one-year retreat from the organization that included a conversion to pitcher. I haven't heard for sure if the Tigers plan to use him at catcher, but I have to imagine St. Pierre will be donning the tools of ignorance given the team's lack of depth at the position.

Overall, these signings provide little in the way of potential for the Tigers' roster. The next news will likely deal with the arbitration cases of unsigned Tigers. Bobby Seay, Nate Robertson, and Miguel Cabrera all still need contracts. Players and teams will file for arbitration from January 5-15, exchanging figures on the 18^th before hearings occur the early part of February. No player has gone to arbitration in Dave Dombrowski's time here, and I don't expect that to change.