I found an old article describing the 1996-1997 rankings.
Ken Griffey Jr., who spent 24 days and 20 games on the disabled list between the two seasons, got his home runs bumped from 105 to 112.41 and his RBI's from 287 to 307.26. In fractional form, these value are being multiplied by 91/85.
Bernie Williams, who spent 45 days and 42 games on the disabled list, was bumped from 50 to 58.33 homeruns and from 202 to 235.67 homeruns. Again, in fractional form, this is 7/6.
Can anybody figure out how they are arriving at these numbers? Also, if you can find more exact numbers to help figure this out, plase forward those along.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Monday, August 18, 2008
More Elias Lunacy
I just plugged the numbers for the AL thirdbasemen. First off, Miguel Cabrera counts as a 3B, but that's not the crazy part. Melvin Mora currently ranks ahead of him.
Really Quick Elias Update
Previously I had stated that all players ending the season on the active roster or disabled list get ranked. This was incorrect.
Based on last year's rankings, it looks like you must be on an active roster or disabled list on August 31 in order to be counted in the rankings. Anybody called up or signed after August 31 will not be in the rankings. For those looking to possibly track the formula throughout September can lock the rosters in on August 31.
Based on last year's rankings, it looks like you must be on an active roster or disabled list on August 31 in order to be counted in the rankings. Anybody called up or signed after August 31 will not be in the rankings. For those looking to possibly track the formula throughout September can lock the rosters in on August 31.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Funny Thing about Gary Glover
Back when i was going to write about most improved bullpens, I had a post half written on the 2007 Rays disaster of a bullpen, and came to the conclusion that the way in which they were able to improve on their bullpen was addition by subtraction. Gary Glover was one of the scrubs subtracted.
The organization is making it clear it is not in their strategic interests to win games right now. Frankly, it makes sense.
The organization is making it clear it is not in their strategic interests to win games right now. Frankly, it makes sense.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Links
I hadn't seen this reported anywhere, but it looks like Carlos Guillen's back may be worse than is being reported. From the Disabled List Informer:
Whitecaps reliever Andrew Hess has been blogging all year. Recently, he blogged about an Olympian he knows pretty well. You may have heard of him.
There were no late signings for the Tigers yesterday. Meanwhile, two first rounders did not sign. Aaron Crow (Washington) and Gerrit Cole (Yankees) are both pitchers whose names were linked to the Tigers this spring, and both will be reporting to school: Missouri and UCLA respectively. Have no fear about the Tigers lack of activity yesterday. All of the early round picks were locked up early.
Really quick, I want to issue a quick correction to yesterday's numbers crunch. Each of the forces listed should be half of what I listed, as I showed the total force in both knees. Assuming balance and symmetry, just cut it in half and you have a conservative estimate of the meniscus and quadriceps force. Bear in mind that any general biomechanic calculation has a lot of error involved, because people are not proportional.
Yikes. Furcal's injury was pretty serious, so serious that there are serious doubts that he will be able to be an effective player again... Either that or I am working to drive down his free agent value this offseason.Carlos Guillen has a pinched nerve (likely from a disc herniation) in his lower back that is causing him low back pain, as well as right leg and foot pain. Though it is reported that he is expected to be out for the next 2-3 days, the fact that he has pain that extends below the knee, in conjunction with back pain and leg weakness, indicates that this is likely a more serious disc herniation that will take far longer to recover from. The leg weakness is the key symptom here, and in fact, this seems to be a situation more serious than that of Rafael Furcal. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Expect Guillen to be on the DL within the next couple of days.
Whitecaps reliever Andrew Hess has been blogging all year. Recently, he blogged about an Olympian he knows pretty well. You may have heard of him.
There were no late signings for the Tigers yesterday. Meanwhile, two first rounders did not sign. Aaron Crow (Washington) and Gerrit Cole (Yankees) are both pitchers whose names were linked to the Tigers this spring, and both will be reporting to school: Missouri and UCLA respectively. Have no fear about the Tigers lack of activity yesterday. All of the early round picks were locked up early.
Really quick, I want to issue a quick correction to yesterday's numbers crunch. Each of the forces listed should be half of what I listed, as I showed the total force in both knees. Assuming balance and symmetry, just cut it in half and you have a conservative estimate of the meniscus and quadriceps force. Bear in mind that any general biomechanic calculation has a lot of error involved, because people are not proportional.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Skelton Again
Once again, much has been made about James Skelton's 165-pound frame. I wanted to take a look at this from a physics perspective. Let's take a quick look at the physics of a crouching catcher. Below is the ugliest free body diagram you will ever see, but it is of a crouching catcher from his knees up. It is a very simple model, but one that should show the relationship between the catcher's weight, height, and knee reactions.
Acting downward is the weight (W) of everything from his knees up, including equipment. This acts at the center of mass of everything, I've got this acting roughly at the anterior side of the top of the torso. It should be further to the right, but Microsoft Word made it difficult to put things in the right place. We'll say this value is 85% of the player's weight plus 15 pounds of padding. For Skelton, this is 155.3 pounds. For a player like Dusty Ryan (6'4", 220), this will be 202.o pounds.
The reaction force at the knee (R) is the compressive support provided by bone contact. This is typically the force that will be acting on the meniscus of the knee, which essentially internal padding within the knee joint.
The Quadriceps (Q) are acting in tension to create a moment balance for the body. If not for the quadriceps, the knee reaction and weight would cause the body to move counterclockwise. Note that if the center of mass is to the right of the knee, the hamstrings would provide the rotational support. The force of the quadriceps acts through the patellar tendon.
The distance from the center of mass to the knee (a) is going to be a function of the catcher's height and his crouching mechanics. The taller a catcher or the less his torso bends, the higher the value a will be. For now, we will assume this to be 1/10 of the player's height. For Skelton, 7.1 inches, while Ryan's value will be 7.6 inches.
The distance (b) is the distance from the center of the knee to the patellar tendon. The mechanics of the knee allow this distance to increase when needed. While this value varies significantly, we'll say it is 2 inches.
By doing a force/moment balance, you can find that R will be equal to W*(a+b)/b, and Q is equal to W*a/b.
For James Skelton, the force at his meniscus is 714.38 pounds. For Dusty Ryan, the force at his meniscus is 969.6 pounds. As far as the quadriceps, James Skelton's quads will need to impart 559.6 pounds of force; Dusty Ryan's quads will need 767.6 pounds.
While there is going to significant error in these calculations, the simple fact is that heavier and taller catchers will put more stress on their knee while crouching. This has already been shown in Dusty Ryan's case, as he missed much of last season with a torn meniscus.
The scouts are wrong about James Skelton. His lack of bulk does not portend durability problems. The people who see him as skinny are confusing the confusing bulk with strength. It is entirely possible that Skelton's leg strength could prevent him from being durable, but let's keep strength and bulk separate, because they are.
Acting downward is the weight (W) of everything from his knees up, including equipment. This acts at the center of mass of everything, I've got this acting roughly at the anterior side of the top of the torso. It should be further to the right, but Microsoft Word made it difficult to put things in the right place. We'll say this value is 85% of the player's weight plus 15 pounds of padding. For Skelton, this is 155.3 pounds. For a player like Dusty Ryan (6'4", 220), this will be 202.o pounds.The reaction force at the knee (R) is the compressive support provided by bone contact. This is typically the force that will be acting on the meniscus of the knee, which essentially internal padding within the knee joint.
The Quadriceps (Q) are acting in tension to create a moment balance for the body. If not for the quadriceps, the knee reaction and weight would cause the body to move counterclockwise. Note that if the center of mass is to the right of the knee, the hamstrings would provide the rotational support. The force of the quadriceps acts through the patellar tendon.
The distance from the center of mass to the knee (a) is going to be a function of the catcher's height and his crouching mechanics. The taller a catcher or the less his torso bends, the higher the value a will be. For now, we will assume this to be 1/10 of the player's height. For Skelton, 7.1 inches, while Ryan's value will be 7.6 inches.
The distance (b) is the distance from the center of the knee to the patellar tendon. The mechanics of the knee allow this distance to increase when needed. While this value varies significantly, we'll say it is 2 inches.
By doing a force/moment balance, you can find that R will be equal to W*(a+b)/b, and Q is equal to W*a/b.
For James Skelton, the force at his meniscus is 714.38 pounds. For Dusty Ryan, the force at his meniscus is 969.6 pounds. As far as the quadriceps, James Skelton's quads will need to impart 559.6 pounds of force; Dusty Ryan's quads will need 767.6 pounds.
While there is going to significant error in these calculations, the simple fact is that heavier and taller catchers will put more stress on their knee while crouching. This has already been shown in Dusty Ryan's case, as he missed much of last season with a torn meniscus.
The scouts are wrong about James Skelton. His lack of bulk does not portend durability problems. The people who see him as skinny are confusing the confusing bulk with strength. It is entirely possible that Skelton's leg strength could prevent him from being durable, but let's keep strength and bulk separate, because they are.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Regarding James Skelton
Out of curiosity, I went diving through my one box of baseball cards that isn't stashed away in storage to check on the weights of some catchers in their early years. One of the knocks on James Skelton that I have always felt was unfair was that he will never be able to play catcher in the Major Leagues because he is too skinny, at 5'11"-165 pounds.
Well, in 1992, Ivan Rodriguez (2152 career games caught) was listed at 5'9"-165. (The card shown is from 1991... My scanner is also in storage, so I image searched some Pudge rookie cards)
In 1994, Jason Kendall (1734 games caught) was listed at 6'0"-170.
James Skelton may have problems hitting for power, and he may have durability concerns (although I feel confirmation bias plays a large role in those reports), but I don't think it is fair to say he is too skinny to be a major league catcher.
Beltran and Zumaya
Obviously the big news yesterday was Joel Zumaya going onto the disabled list and Francis Beltran being called up to take his place. On the surface, Beltran was an odd choice. With all the love Casey Fien has been getting in Toledo, he would have seemingly been the top choice. Once you factor in the fact that Todd Jones is returning Friday and someone would need to go, it makes sense to go with Francis Beltran. But what if he was the more deserving pitcher?
Beltran has not allowed a run since July 6. In that time, he has walked 2, struck out 15, and allowed just three hits in 9.1 scoreless innings. Beltran has been quietly dominant since Toledo's all star break. During the bullpen series, I have brought up the strategy in buying low on relievers recovering from injuries. Beltran fits this description, as last year was his first full season of pitching since 2005 Tommy John surgery. I would not be opposed to Beltran staying in the bullpen for the duration of the season to see if he is worth keeping around. If you are worried about the roster crunch when Todd Jones returns, I would suggest that Freddy Dolsi can be sacraficed for a couple of weeks.
And now that gets us to Zumaya. Luckily, I haven't been able to watch or listen to the games this week, saving me from sitting through his dreadful outing on Tuesday. But the question I have: WHY WAS HE EVEN PITCHING? The guy is coming off of shoulder surgery, had lingering shoulder problems over the past few weeks, and hadn't been pitching particularly well. You would think that would have set off some red flags. Once again, something appears to be broken when it comes to the Tigers' handling of injuries. I don't know if the blame falls at Jim Leyland's feet, if Dave Dombrowski is to blame, if Kevin Rand is at fault, or if the team doctors have continually screwed up, but there is a long list of Tigers's players dating back to last summer who have played through minor injuries only to have more severe problems result. As much as everybody wants to fix the bullpen and the pitching staff, I think an overhaul in the team's handling of injuries could go a long way in improving the team.
Beltran has not allowed a run since July 6. In that time, he has walked 2, struck out 15, and allowed just three hits in 9.1 scoreless innings. Beltran has been quietly dominant since Toledo's all star break. During the bullpen series, I have brought up the strategy in buying low on relievers recovering from injuries. Beltran fits this description, as last year was his first full season of pitching since 2005 Tommy John surgery. I would not be opposed to Beltran staying in the bullpen for the duration of the season to see if he is worth keeping around. If you are worried about the roster crunch when Todd Jones returns, I would suggest that Freddy Dolsi can be sacraficed for a couple of weeks.
And now that gets us to Zumaya. Luckily, I haven't been able to watch or listen to the games this week, saving me from sitting through his dreadful outing on Tuesday. But the question I have: WHY WAS HE EVEN PITCHING? The guy is coming off of shoulder surgery, had lingering shoulder problems over the past few weeks, and hadn't been pitching particularly well. You would think that would have set off some red flags. Once again, something appears to be broken when it comes to the Tigers' handling of injuries. I don't know if the blame falls at Jim Leyland's feet, if Dave Dombrowski is to blame, if Kevin Rand is at fault, or if the team doctors have continually screwed up, but there is a long list of Tigers's players dating back to last summer who have played through minor injuries only to have more severe problems result. As much as everybody wants to fix the bullpen and the pitching staff, I think an overhaul in the team's handling of injuries could go a long way in improving the team.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 6
Following the pattern, we'll now take a look at different ways to replicate the 2006 Twins model for a bullpen. Aside from Eyre, there were a ton of common threads between the players. Most had very good peripherals coming into the season, which made them less dependent on their defense. Nathan and Rincon were starters before moving to the pen. The same is true of Guerrier, who was a AAA starter before being claimed off waivers. Just as we spent much of the post-Indians post on finding the next Bobby Howry, how about the next Joe Nathan? Specifically, are there any players in their first year of relieving putting up very good strikeout and walk numbers? These would be players who are currently not in the closers role for their team, as they could still come at a discount. Also, because the Twins were able to take advantage of the Giants panicking, I'll list any 2009 weaknesses for the teams these guys are playing for.
J.P. Howell, 25, Tampa Bay
I don't think Howell would be available, as he has gotten some high leverage innings. Throw in the fact that he's cheap, and that the Rays seem to be run by bright people, Howell would probably cost a pretty penny. The Rays really don't have any weaknesses for next year's team. Any holes they have can be filled internally. This team will be on top for a while, folks.
Edwar Ramirez, 27, New York Yankees
Okay, not a starter before this year, but his strikeout and walk numbers are out of this world. For 2009, the Yankees could use a catcher, firstbaseman, centerfielder, or starting pitcher. I would have rather gotten Ramirez for Rodriguez. Unfortunately, the Tigers don't appear to be capable of looking past velocity, a flaw that may be the root cause of these bullpen problems
Robinson Tejeda, 26, Kansas City
It's easy to put up horrible numbers with the Rangers. Since joining Kansas City's bullpen, Tejeda has been pretty solid with 24 K's, 8 BB in 22 innings. The Royals have a potential hole at 2B, 1B, and could use another starting pitcher or two.
Jose Arredondo, 24, Los Angeles Angels
K-Rod's heir apparent. Can't be had.
Chad Durbin, 30, Philadelphia
We've been down this path, and probably won't go back down it.
Doug Waechter, 27, Florida
Always low on both strikeouts and walks, Waechter needed a good defense behind him as a starter. Now as a reliever, the K rate is more respectable and could be a sleeper next year. That said, he was placed on the disabled list with shoulder problems today. The Marlins will want cheap players. Their needs will be dependant on where they decide to cut costs. Frankly, Jeremy Hermida is my target on the Marlins' roster.
Buddy Carlyle, 30, Atlanta
A journeyman who moved to the bullpen this year, Carlyle now has 40 K's in 39 innings, but the walks (16) are a bit high for my taste. He's probably a bit old to be the next Nathan, but could be worth a shot as a sleeper. The Braves could use help in left field and in the rotation.
Joel Hanrahan, 26, Washington
A starter until this year and a top Dodgers prospect in the early part of this decade, Hanrahan has 75 K's in 65 innings this year, enough to earn some Nathan comparisons. He has been closing since the trade of Jon Rauch, and could stay in that role in the future. In short, I'm doubting he can be had at a discount. The Nats seem to be young and injured all over the place, and their specific needs will be a function of injury recoveries.
Hong-Chih Kuo, 27, Los Angeles Dodgers
In his first full season in relief, Kuo has finally stayed healthy. The lefty has been a huge cog in the Dodgers bullpen that I almost wrote about the other day. In 66.7 IP, he's only walked 15 guys while striking out a whopping 78 with only two players taking him out of the park. No wonder he's had a 1.76 ERA so far. I doubt he can be had as a throw in, and the Dodgers may be due for another overpaid outfielder in a few months. Sheffield for Kuo and Kershaw, here we go.
Taylor Buchholz, 26, Colorado Rockies
Struggled for years as a back of the rotation guy, Buchholz has come into his own as a reliever the past two years with the Rockies. Like the other guys, the K's are up and the BB's are down. The Rockies' most glaring hole appears to be at second base.
There are some guys who fit the Joe Nathan 2003 mold. A struggling starting pitcher having a breakout season in reliever with lots of strikeouts and few walks. What about Tigers who fit the A.J. Pierzynski mold? That is, who are some players due for a decline with a hot prospect right on their tail?
?
Oh well. No studs banging down the door, and a lot of the players due for decline have already done so.
The Twins also did a lot of promoting from within. Who are some players in the Tigers' minor league system with low walk rates and high strikeout rates within range of the Big Leagues (Lakeland and above)?
Casey Fien
Chris Lambert
Guillermo Moscoso
Robert Weinhardt
Without going into individual profiles on those guys, they all are striking out a lot of players, walking few, and generally keeping home runs off the board. If you want to look within the systems for possibilities in next year's bullpen, look at those four guys.
As far as this year's draft is concerned, I'm not convinced we will see dramatic results from the guys taken this year. I know Weinhardt is listed above, but it may take until 2010-11 to see a massive influx of players taken this year in the bullpen. Note how the two Twins relievers in 2006 were taken in the 2002 draft, a four year's difference. It took Crain two years and Neshek four.
One more thing to note about the two bullpens covered so far: they weren't built in a day. The 2005 Indians were mostly accumulated before the 2004 season. All of the players in the Twins' bullpen, sans Dennys Reyes, were in the system more than two years prior to the start of the 2006 season. As we look at more bullpens, we'll find out if a quick fix is possible.
J.P. Howell, 25, Tampa Bay
I don't think Howell would be available, as he has gotten some high leverage innings. Throw in the fact that he's cheap, and that the Rays seem to be run by bright people, Howell would probably cost a pretty penny. The Rays really don't have any weaknesses for next year's team. Any holes they have can be filled internally. This team will be on top for a while, folks.
Edwar Ramirez, 27, New York Yankees
Okay, not a starter before this year, but his strikeout and walk numbers are out of this world. For 2009, the Yankees could use a catcher, firstbaseman, centerfielder, or starting pitcher. I would have rather gotten Ramirez for Rodriguez. Unfortunately, the Tigers don't appear to be capable of looking past velocity, a flaw that may be the root cause of these bullpen problems
Robinson Tejeda, 26, Kansas City
It's easy to put up horrible numbers with the Rangers. Since joining Kansas City's bullpen, Tejeda has been pretty solid with 24 K's, 8 BB in 22 innings. The Royals have a potential hole at 2B, 1B, and could use another starting pitcher or two.
Jose Arredondo, 24, Los Angeles Angels
K-Rod's heir apparent. Can't be had.
Chad Durbin, 30, Philadelphia
We've been down this path, and probably won't go back down it.
Doug Waechter, 27, Florida
Always low on both strikeouts and walks, Waechter needed a good defense behind him as a starter. Now as a reliever, the K rate is more respectable and could be a sleeper next year. That said, he was placed on the disabled list with shoulder problems today. The Marlins will want cheap players. Their needs will be dependant on where they decide to cut costs. Frankly, Jeremy Hermida is my target on the Marlins' roster.
Buddy Carlyle, 30, Atlanta
A journeyman who moved to the bullpen this year, Carlyle now has 40 K's in 39 innings, but the walks (16) are a bit high for my taste. He's probably a bit old to be the next Nathan, but could be worth a shot as a sleeper. The Braves could use help in left field and in the rotation.
Joel Hanrahan, 26, Washington
A starter until this year and a top Dodgers prospect in the early part of this decade, Hanrahan has 75 K's in 65 innings this year, enough to earn some Nathan comparisons. He has been closing since the trade of Jon Rauch, and could stay in that role in the future. In short, I'm doubting he can be had at a discount. The Nats seem to be young and injured all over the place, and their specific needs will be a function of injury recoveries.
Hong-Chih Kuo, 27, Los Angeles Dodgers
In his first full season in relief, Kuo has finally stayed healthy. The lefty has been a huge cog in the Dodgers bullpen that I almost wrote about the other day. In 66.7 IP, he's only walked 15 guys while striking out a whopping 78 with only two players taking him out of the park. No wonder he's had a 1.76 ERA so far. I doubt he can be had as a throw in, and the Dodgers may be due for another overpaid outfielder in a few months. Sheffield for Kuo and Kershaw, here we go.
Taylor Buchholz, 26, Colorado Rockies
Struggled for years as a back of the rotation guy, Buchholz has come into his own as a reliever the past two years with the Rockies. Like the other guys, the K's are up and the BB's are down. The Rockies' most glaring hole appears to be at second base.
There are some guys who fit the Joe Nathan 2003 mold. A struggling starting pitcher having a breakout season in reliever with lots of strikeouts and few walks. What about Tigers who fit the A.J. Pierzynski mold? That is, who are some players due for a decline with a hot prospect right on their tail?
?
Oh well. No studs banging down the door, and a lot of the players due for decline have already done so.
The Twins also did a lot of promoting from within. Who are some players in the Tigers' minor league system with low walk rates and high strikeout rates within range of the Big Leagues (Lakeland and above)?
Casey Fien
Chris Lambert
Guillermo Moscoso
Robert Weinhardt
Without going into individual profiles on those guys, they all are striking out a lot of players, walking few, and generally keeping home runs off the board. If you want to look within the systems for possibilities in next year's bullpen, look at those four guys.
As far as this year's draft is concerned, I'm not convinced we will see dramatic results from the guys taken this year. I know Weinhardt is listed above, but it may take until 2010-11 to see a massive influx of players taken this year in the bullpen. Note how the two Twins relievers in 2006 were taken in the 2002 draft, a four year's difference. It took Crain two years and Neshek four.
One more thing to note about the two bullpens covered so far: they weren't built in a day. The 2005 Indians were mostly accumulated before the 2004 season. All of the players in the Twins' bullpen, sans Dennys Reyes, were in the system more than two years prior to the start of the 2006 season. As we look at more bullpens, we'll find out if a quick fix is possible.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Garcia Signs, Sheffield on Waivers, etc.
Freddy Garcia has signed with the Tigers to a minor league deal. This has been long rumored, and appears to be risk free. A minor league deal, the only risk comes if Garcia gets playing time he doesn't deserve. This goes right in line with getting guys on the rebound, meaning this deal may pay off next season if he recovers fully at that point. My crazy idea would be to break him in down in the bullpen until his endurance is built up.
ESPNews says Gary Sheffield was placed on waivers. Big deal. Everybody is placed on waivers in August.
ESPNews says Gary Sheffield was placed on waivers. Big deal. Everybody is placed on waivers in August.
Bonine Out
For those curious about pitching depth, Eddie Bonine was removed from his last start with a shoulder strain. This is the type of thing that could be very serious, and I have a hard time seeing him back with the team this year.
In a related move, it looks like Dontrelle Willis will be taking his rotation spot in Toledo. After some encouragingly low walk numbers in his last few starts with the Flying Tigers, Willis is certainly one worth watching, as he could be the Tigers' ace in the hole.
In a related move, it looks like Dontrelle Willis will be taking his rotation spot in Toledo. After some encouragingly low walk numbers in his last few starts with the Flying Tigers, Willis is certainly one worth watching, as he could be the Tigers' ace in the hole.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Sheffield to Tampa?
ESPNews and DRaysBay are reporting Gary Sheffield might be headed to Tampa Bay. Could this mean Tampa Bay claimed him off waivers? If so, would the Tigers let them claim him for nothing? Would the Tigers want a player in return? Would the Rays want the Tigers to pick up some of his salary? Given that, if claimed, the Tigers could dump him off on the Rays and stick them with the salary. The Tigers have some bargaining power here when it comes to players.
This could all be moot if he wasn't claimed though.
Update: Sheffield is in the lineup tonight, so the rumors are still just that: rumors.
This could all be moot if he wasn't claimed though.
Update: Sheffield is in the lineup tonight, so the rumors are still just that: rumors.
How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 5
Last time I said we would cover the 2008 Dodgers bullpen. After looking it over, i want to throw out 2008 bullpens for the time being. Since the season hasn't ended, and bullpens haven't gone through the dog days of August, it looked like 2008 bullpens were favored in the analysis. Instead, we'll go to the third best bullpen: the 2006 Minnesota Twins.
The analysis of the opening day roster to evaluate strategy may be flawed when dealing with the Twins of recent years. This is a team who has made a habit of wasting roster spots on worthless veterans early on, only to surge behind a younger core later in the season. In short, the opening day roster for the Twins looks very different than it does later on in the season. Let's look at the opening day bullpen for the 2006 version of the Twins.
Joe Nathan, 31, RHP
Salary: $3,750,000
Options?: No
2005 Statistics: 70 IP, 2.70 ERA, 22 BB, 94 K, 5 HR
Signed: Acquired from San Francisco with Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski, November 14, 2003
For as overrated as the closer role has become, the value of a dominant shut down closer cannot be overstated. Having a guy like Nathan in the back end of the pen for several years is one of the keys to long term bullpen success. How were they able to get him in this deal? People often forget about Joe Nathan's time with the Giants. Joining the rotation in his first season, Nathan was purely average in 1999 at age 24. He came back the next season, putting up mediocre numbers in the back of San Francisco's rotation amidst shoulder problems. After the 2000 season, Nathan had shoulder surgery followed by weak minor league seasons in 2001 and 2002. Out of options in 2003, he finally moved to relief and put up a promising season for the Giants striking out 83 with a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings. Why the Giants were willing to package him with two prospects in a panic move after the season still makes no sense.
In summary, the Twins were able to acquire Nathan as part of a package in a trade with a dimwitted general manager. They were also able to use the emergence of Joe Mauer to sell high on A.J. Pierzynski before he got expensive. Finally, they noticed the breakout season Joe Nathan had in his first year as a relief pitcher. The peripherals of his 2003 season, healed shoulder, and new role all suggest that Nathan was for real.
Juan Rincon, 27, RHP
Salary: $900,000
Options: No
2005 Statistics: 77 IP, 2.45 ERA, 30 BB, 84 K, 2 HR
Signed: Undrafted Free Agent, 1996
Rincon is another player with very good numbers the year before. He had two primary question marks coming into the season: minor elbow surgery after the 2005 season may have caused problems, and a steroid suspension in 2005 may suggest that he may not have been able to keep up his previous success. Like Nathan, Rincon was a starter in the minors before being moved to the pen upon his promotion to the Major Leagues.
Jesse Crain, 24, RHP
Salary: $361,000
Options: Yes
2005 Statistics: 79.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 29 BB, 25 K, 6 HR
Signed: 2002 Draft, 2nd Round
Crain was a taken as a reliever in the second round of the 2002 draft and moved quickly to the big league club, cracking the bullpen for good midway through the 2004 season. The K rate was a worry heading into the 2006 season, but he ended up amending that kink in his armor. That Crain would eventually end up with shoulder problems suggest that it might be in a team's best interest to get productive years out of young pitchers while they can. While the Tigers have been aggressive in promoting top starting pitchers, relievers have often lagged behind and rotted in Erie and Toledo.
Francisco Liriano, 22, LHP
Salary: $327,000
Options: Yes
2005 Statistics: 23.2 IP, 5.70 ERA, 7 BB, 33 K, 4 HR (AAA: 91 IP, 1.78 ERA, 24 BB, 112 K, 4 HR, AA: 76.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 26 BB, 92 K, 6 HR)
Signed: Acquired from San Francisco with Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan for A.J. Pierzynski, November 14, 2003
Yes, Liriano started the year in the bullpen while the putzed around with Kyle Lohse. The good news is that Liriano's innings were kept down; the bad news is that it still didn't do a lick of good for them. This shows that the bullpen can be a nice place to get quality innings out of a developing starting pitcher while building him up for a rotation role down the line.
Matt Guerrier, 27, RHP
Salary: $343,500
Options: No
2005 Statistics: 71.7 IP, 3.39 ERA, 24 BB, 46 K, 6 HR
Signed: Claimed off waivers from Pittsburgh, November 20, 2003
The mop up guy for much of his early time in Minnesota, the Twins were once again able to get a former top prospect on the cheap from an inept general manager. Guerrier had been coming off an injury plagued (shoulder tendinitis) season in 2003, where he still kept his walks to a minimum in AAA. The Pirates foolishly tried to slip him through waivers. Duaner Sanchez was also lost on waivers to the Dodgers the same day, and this is the year where they lost five players in the Rule 5 draft.
Willie Eyre, 27, RHP
Salary: $327,000
Options: No
2005 Statistics: AAA: 82.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 28 BB, 74 K, 3 HR
Signed: 1999 Draft, 23rd round
Eyre made the team on the strength of a strong 2005 season in AAA and the fact that he was out of options. That said, he wasn't particularly effective in his time up with the club. The bullpen still survived, despite the dead weight. The problem starts to arise when you have several out of options losers clogging up the bullpen.
The team started with six players. Eventually moving up to seven with Liriano's promotion to the rotation, there were two more guys who played a huge role in this bullpen. These two guys will not count in the data, but they were lights out for the Twins.
Dennys Reyes, 29, LHP
Salary: $550,000
Options: No
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, February 21, 2006
Pat Neshek, 25, RHP
Salary: $320,000
Options: Yes
Signed: 2002 Draft, 6th round
Reyes came out of nowhere, and I don't see any injuries that would have masked his performance in the years leading up to 2006. Neshek was a reliever from the get go, and after dominating the minor leagues at every stop, became the second guy from the 2002 draft to join the bullpen.
Number of Relievers: 6
Average Salary: $1.00 millon
Amount with Options: 2/6
Previous Year ERA: 3.43
Previous Year BB/9: 3.55
Previous Year K/9: 8.24
Previous Year: HR/9: 0.64
Starting Pitching Innings: 65.4%
Team Defensive Efficiency: 0.692
%Innings Pitched by Opening Day Relievers: 74.3%
Major League Free Agents: 0/6
Drafted: 2/8
Acquired in Trade: 2/6
UDFA: 1/6
Waivers: 1/6
Minor League Free Agents: 0/6
The peripherals of the pitchers the previous season were nothing short of amazing. It was enough to make up for a weak back end of the rotation. The move of Liriano to the rotation and addition of a seventh reliever reduced the amount of innings thrown by the opening day relievers. Note once again how the bullpen was comprised of mostly homegrown players. Next, we'll take a look at ways the Tigers could copy the Twins model.
The analysis of the opening day roster to evaluate strategy may be flawed when dealing with the Twins of recent years. This is a team who has made a habit of wasting roster spots on worthless veterans early on, only to surge behind a younger core later in the season. In short, the opening day roster for the Twins looks very different than it does later on in the season. Let's look at the opening day bullpen for the 2006 version of the Twins.
Joe Nathan, 31, RHP
Salary: $3,750,000
Options?: No
2005 Statistics: 70 IP, 2.70 ERA, 22 BB, 94 K, 5 HR
Signed: Acquired from San Francisco with Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski, November 14, 2003
For as overrated as the closer role has become, the value of a dominant shut down closer cannot be overstated. Having a guy like Nathan in the back end of the pen for several years is one of the keys to long term bullpen success. How were they able to get him in this deal? People often forget about Joe Nathan's time with the Giants. Joining the rotation in his first season, Nathan was purely average in 1999 at age 24. He came back the next season, putting up mediocre numbers in the back of San Francisco's rotation amidst shoulder problems. After the 2000 season, Nathan had shoulder surgery followed by weak minor league seasons in 2001 and 2002. Out of options in 2003, he finally moved to relief and put up a promising season for the Giants striking out 83 with a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings. Why the Giants were willing to package him with two prospects in a panic move after the season still makes no sense.
In summary, the Twins were able to acquire Nathan as part of a package in a trade with a dimwitted general manager. They were also able to use the emergence of Joe Mauer to sell high on A.J. Pierzynski before he got expensive. Finally, they noticed the breakout season Joe Nathan had in his first year as a relief pitcher. The peripherals of his 2003 season, healed shoulder, and new role all suggest that Nathan was for real.
Juan Rincon, 27, RHP
Salary: $900,000
Options: No
2005 Statistics: 77 IP, 2.45 ERA, 30 BB, 84 K, 2 HR
Signed: Undrafted Free Agent, 1996
Rincon is another player with very good numbers the year before. He had two primary question marks coming into the season: minor elbow surgery after the 2005 season may have caused problems, and a steroid suspension in 2005 may suggest that he may not have been able to keep up his previous success. Like Nathan, Rincon was a starter in the minors before being moved to the pen upon his promotion to the Major Leagues.
Jesse Crain, 24, RHP
Salary: $361,000
Options: Yes
2005 Statistics: 79.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 29 BB, 25 K, 6 HR
Signed: 2002 Draft, 2nd Round
Crain was a taken as a reliever in the second round of the 2002 draft and moved quickly to the big league club, cracking the bullpen for good midway through the 2004 season. The K rate was a worry heading into the 2006 season, but he ended up amending that kink in his armor. That Crain would eventually end up with shoulder problems suggest that it might be in a team's best interest to get productive years out of young pitchers while they can. While the Tigers have been aggressive in promoting top starting pitchers, relievers have often lagged behind and rotted in Erie and Toledo.
Francisco Liriano, 22, LHP
Salary: $327,000
Options: Yes
2005 Statistics: 23.2 IP, 5.70 ERA, 7 BB, 33 K, 4 HR (AAA: 91 IP, 1.78 ERA, 24 BB, 112 K, 4 HR, AA: 76.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 26 BB, 92 K, 6 HR)
Signed: Acquired from San Francisco with Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan for A.J. Pierzynski, November 14, 2003
Yes, Liriano started the year in the bullpen while the putzed around with Kyle Lohse. The good news is that Liriano's innings were kept down; the bad news is that it still didn't do a lick of good for them. This shows that the bullpen can be a nice place to get quality innings out of a developing starting pitcher while building him up for a rotation role down the line.
Matt Guerrier, 27, RHP
Salary: $343,500
Options: No
2005 Statistics: 71.7 IP, 3.39 ERA, 24 BB, 46 K, 6 HR
Signed: Claimed off waivers from Pittsburgh, November 20, 2003
The mop up guy for much of his early time in Minnesota, the Twins were once again able to get a former top prospect on the cheap from an inept general manager. Guerrier had been coming off an injury plagued (shoulder tendinitis) season in 2003, where he still kept his walks to a minimum in AAA. The Pirates foolishly tried to slip him through waivers. Duaner Sanchez was also lost on waivers to the Dodgers the same day, and this is the year where they lost five players in the Rule 5 draft.
Willie Eyre, 27, RHP
Salary: $327,000
Options: No
2005 Statistics: AAA: 82.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 28 BB, 74 K, 3 HR
Signed: 1999 Draft, 23rd round
Eyre made the team on the strength of a strong 2005 season in AAA and the fact that he was out of options. That said, he wasn't particularly effective in his time up with the club. The bullpen still survived, despite the dead weight. The problem starts to arise when you have several out of options losers clogging up the bullpen.
The team started with six players. Eventually moving up to seven with Liriano's promotion to the rotation, there were two more guys who played a huge role in this bullpen. These two guys will not count in the data, but they were lights out for the Twins.
Dennys Reyes, 29, LHP
Salary: $550,000
Options: No
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, February 21, 2006
Pat Neshek, 25, RHP
Salary: $320,000
Options: Yes
Signed: 2002 Draft, 6th round
Reyes came out of nowhere, and I don't see any injuries that would have masked his performance in the years leading up to 2006. Neshek was a reliever from the get go, and after dominating the minor leagues at every stop, became the second guy from the 2002 draft to join the bullpen.
Number of Relievers: 6
Average Salary: $1.00 millon
Amount with Options: 2/6
Previous Year ERA: 3.43
Previous Year BB/9: 3.55
Previous Year K/9: 8.24
Previous Year: HR/9: 0.64
Starting Pitching Innings: 65.4%
Team Defensive Efficiency: 0.692
%Innings Pitched by Opening Day Relievers: 74.3%
Major League Free Agents: 0/6
Drafted: 2/8
Acquired in Trade: 2/6
UDFA: 1/6
Waivers: 1/6
Minor League Free Agents: 0/6
The peripherals of the pitchers the previous season were nothing short of amazing. It was enough to make up for a weak back end of the rotation. The move of Liriano to the rotation and addition of a seventh reliever reduced the amount of innings thrown by the opening day relievers. Note once again how the bullpen was comprised of mostly homegrown players. Next, we'll take a look at ways the Tigers could copy the Twins model.
Thursday, August 07, 2008
How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 4
Last time, we looked at the Cleveland Indians' bullpen from 2005, the best bullpen in the Majors since 2004. There was a marked trend in the type of relievers they picked up. Bob Wickman, Bobby Howry, Rafael Betancourt, and Scott Sauerbeck were all signed to discount deals after undergoing arm surgery. Wickman, Howry, and Sauerbeck all were top relievers during the 2000-2002 time period. Wickman and Howry had elbow surgery and returned to peak form, while Sauerbeck failed to do so after shoulder surgery. So which top relievers from 2004-2006 may be available this offseason? First, the guy coming back from elbow surgery.
Danys Baez, 31, Baltimore
Baez had Tommy John Surgery last fall, meaning he is probably due to return next season, and probably return to form late next season or early 2010. Baez was a pretty good reliever between 2003 and 2005. I would tend to believe that his 2006-2007 struggles were the result of pitching through injury. With a new elbow ligament, he could enjoy a few succesful seasons before it's all said and done. Baltimore owes him $5.5 million next year. My first instinct would be to make a swap similar to Rhodes/Lawton, getting out from under Gary Sheffield's contract to get a possible bullpen arm.
Now to shoulder rehabbers. The recovery from these injuries seems less likely, but could they be worth a flier?
Chad Cordero, 26, Washington
A very good second tier closer from 2004-2007 for Washington, Cordero went under the knife this year after suffering from a torn labrum. His loss of velocity was well documented, but now that there is a reason for the drop of velocity, he could be worth a shot. An arm like this will never come cheaper, especially now that Jim Bowden has foolishly announced they plan to non-tender Cordero after the year.
Derrick Turnbow, 30, Milwaukee
Turnbow simply couldn't pitch this year, but his 2005 season was very good. We now have a reason for his struggles, as he was diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff last week. Signing him to a minor league deal to see if lightning can be caught in a bottle after the recovery could be a worthy gamble.
Joel Zumaya, 23, Detroit
Assuming he can avoid further injury, Joel Zumaya could be a huge part of next year's team. The key will be to take it easy with him this year, now that the team seems to be falling out of the race. There is no point in jeopardizing what could be an important part of the team to gun for .500.
John Smoltz, 41, Atlanta
Probably too old to recover from pretty major shoulder surgery. I'm thinking Smoltz will retire.
The pool of players I grabbed, were the top 20 relievers each year from 2004-2006 in Win Expectancy from Baseball Prospectus. Any player that has had surgery on each of those lists and also may be available this offseason was listed.
Fernando Rodney was not listed for two reasons. First, he was never a top 20 reliever. Second, he has not had surgery to clean up whatever is wrong. The point of this excercise was to find players who may have arms that have been cleaned up and can be bought low. Rodney is arbitration eligible this offseason, and it may be an interesting decision whether to bring him up.
From this group, I would definitely inquire about Baez, try to sign Derrick Turnbow to a minor league deal, and sign Chad Cordero to an incentive laden one year deal with an option for a second.
Next, we'll take a look at the 2008 Dodgers bullpen, the second ranked pen since 2004.
Danys Baez, 31, Baltimore
Baez had Tommy John Surgery last fall, meaning he is probably due to return next season, and probably return to form late next season or early 2010. Baez was a pretty good reliever between 2003 and 2005. I would tend to believe that his 2006-2007 struggles were the result of pitching through injury. With a new elbow ligament, he could enjoy a few succesful seasons before it's all said and done. Baltimore owes him $5.5 million next year. My first instinct would be to make a swap similar to Rhodes/Lawton, getting out from under Gary Sheffield's contract to get a possible bullpen arm.
Now to shoulder rehabbers. The recovery from these injuries seems less likely, but could they be worth a flier?
Chad Cordero, 26, Washington
A very good second tier closer from 2004-2007 for Washington, Cordero went under the knife this year after suffering from a torn labrum. His loss of velocity was well documented, but now that there is a reason for the drop of velocity, he could be worth a shot. An arm like this will never come cheaper, especially now that Jim Bowden has foolishly announced they plan to non-tender Cordero after the year.
Derrick Turnbow, 30, Milwaukee
Turnbow simply couldn't pitch this year, but his 2005 season was very good. We now have a reason for his struggles, as he was diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff last week. Signing him to a minor league deal to see if lightning can be caught in a bottle after the recovery could be a worthy gamble.
Joel Zumaya, 23, Detroit
Assuming he can avoid further injury, Joel Zumaya could be a huge part of next year's team. The key will be to take it easy with him this year, now that the team seems to be falling out of the race. There is no point in jeopardizing what could be an important part of the team to gun for .500.
John Smoltz, 41, Atlanta
Probably too old to recover from pretty major shoulder surgery. I'm thinking Smoltz will retire.
The pool of players I grabbed, were the top 20 relievers each year from 2004-2006 in Win Expectancy from Baseball Prospectus. Any player that has had surgery on each of those lists and also may be available this offseason was listed.
Fernando Rodney was not listed for two reasons. First, he was never a top 20 reliever. Second, he has not had surgery to clean up whatever is wrong. The point of this excercise was to find players who may have arms that have been cleaned up and can be bought low. Rodney is arbitration eligible this offseason, and it may be an interesting decision whether to bring him up.
From this group, I would definitely inquire about Baez, try to sign Derrick Turnbow to a minor league deal, and sign Chad Cordero to an incentive laden one year deal with an option for a second.
Next, we'll take a look at the 2008 Dodgers bullpen, the second ranked pen since 2004.
How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 3
The 2005 Cleveland Indians can probably best be remembered by the shot of Ozzie Guillen with his hands around his neck. Known for their late season charge and last week collapse, the 2005 Indians can also be known for having the best bullpen of the past five seasons. How was this bullpen built? Let's take a look at the opening day bullpen and give them scores as described yesterday. (On a completely unrelated note, I just found that the Indians planned on placing Juan Gonzalez on their opening day roster, but an injury forced them to recall Grady Sizemore. The funny thing is that the Cardinals almost made this mistake this year, a move that would have potentially left all star Ryan Ludwick off the roster. Make that three teams that have dodged the Juan Gonzalez bullet.)
Bob Wickman, 36, RHP
Salary: $2,750,000
Options?: No (5+ Service Time)
2004 Statistics: 29.7 IP, 4.25 ERA, 10 BB, 26 K, 4 HR
Signed: Free Agent, 11/24/04
Re-upping Wickman was a very shrewd move. He had missed all of 2003 and the first part of 2004 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. As a result, the Indians were able to re-sign him to a relatively cheap $2.75 million deal with the hope that he would return to form, being two year's removed from the surgery. Maybe the key to a bullpen is to load up on guys who had Tommy John Surgery two years prior.
David Riske, 28, RHP
Salary: $1,425,000
Options?: No (5+ Service Time)
2004 Statistics: 77.3 IP, 3.72 ERA, 41 BB, 78 K, 11 HR
Signed: 1996 Draft, 56th round
Riske spent time as the Indians closer when Wickman was out, but was much better served for a middle relief role. I estimated that his service time was over 5, but that was not the case for the entire year. As a review, a player cannot be optioned to the minors without the consent when they have over five years of service time. For a guy in his arbitration years, $1.4 million is about what you'd expect for an above average middle reliever.
Arthur Rhodes, 35, LHP
Salary: $3,700,000
Options: No
2004 Statistics: 38.7 IP, 5.12 ERA, 21 BB, 34 K, 9 HR
Signed: Acquired from Pittsburgh for OF Matt Lawton, 12/9/04
Rhodes looked to be nearing the end of the road the previous season with Oakland. He was sent earlier in this offseason from Oakland to Pittsburgh in a salary dump trade for Jason Kendall. Then he was dealt in this other trade for Matt Lawton, it what appeared to be another salary dump*. Maybe sending an overpriced player like Gary Sheffield to a team looking to unload a high priced reliever with rebound potential could be a worthwhile move.
*On the surface it looks like a salary dump, but Matt Lawton was later suspended for steroid use. There were parts of the Mitchell Report which detailed the Dodgers' internal meetings, suspecting Eric Gagne to be a potential user as they were trying to deal him. Perhaps the Indians caught wind of something here and shipped Lawton away while they could.
Scott Sauerbeck, 33, LHP
Salary: $500,000
Options?: No
2004 Statistics: DNP, Out with Torn Labrum and Torn Rotator Cuff
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 4/12/04
Another buy low guy for the Indians. His shoulder surgery was in January, and they snapped him up to a Minor League deal, knowing he'd have to miss the entire 2004 season and excercised the option on his contract to get him on the cheap in 2005.
Rafael Betancourt, 30, RHP
Salary: $338,600
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 66.7 IP, 3.92 ERA, 18 BB, 76 K, 7 HR
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 1/20/03
Betancourt has had a rather unconventional career. Starting out with the Red Sox system as an infielder, he was converted to pitching. After pitching in their system for a number of years, he developed some elbow problems, and instead of having typical ligament replacement surgery in his elbow, he had a metal rod put in there to stabalize the joint. It was after this surgery that he tried out for the Indians and he made the club. After sticking with the bullpen in 2004, the rest has been history.
Bobby Howry, 31, RHP
Salary: $900,000
Options?: No
2004 Statistics: 42.7 IP, 2.74 ERA, 12 BB, 39 K, 5 HR (AAA: 26 IP, 5.19 ERA, 6 BB, 24 K, ? HR)
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 1/7/04
Bobby Howry's career turned around during his two years with Cleveland. He had missed much of the 2003 season following elbow surgery, and the Indians were subsequently able to get him signed to a Minor League deal while he rehabbed his elbow. The patience and foresight paid off as Howry emerged as one of the top relievers in baseball.
Matt Miller, 33, RHP
Salary: $329,700
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 55.3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 23 BB, 55 K, 1 HR (AAA: 14 IP, 1.93 ERA, 6 BB, 17 K, ? HR)
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 2/13/04
Miller, another journeyman, caught fire in 2004. He didn't spend the whole 2005 season in the big leagues, but pitched well when he was up.
Jason Davis, 25, RHP
Salary: $341,700
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 114.3 IP, 5.51 ERA, 51 BB, 72 K, 13 HR (AAA: 54 IP, 3.00 ERA, 18 BB, 39 K, ? HR)
Signed: 1999 Draft, 21st round
Davis actually started the season as the fifth starter, but only because of a brief injury to CC Sabathia. Davis was sent to the bullpen and Miller to AAA upon CC's mid-April return. For that reason, I am including him as a reliever.
Totaling up the statistics:
Number of Relievers: 7 (Even though, I've listed 8 guys, there were only 7 relievers)
Average Salary: $1.29 millon
Amount with Options: 3/8
Previous Year ERA: 4.26
Previous Year BB/9: 3.77
Previous Year K/9: 7.79
Previous Year: HR/9: 1.06
Starting Pitching Innings: 76.1%
Team Defensive Efficiency: 0.720
%Innings Pitched by Opening Day Relievers: 92.1%
Major League Free Agents: 1/8
Drafted: 2/8
Acquired in Trade: 1/8
UDFA: 0/8
Waivers: 0/8
Minor League Free Agents: 4/8
We'll know more about how these numbers compare as we look at other bullpens. You can learn a lot from this team, though. The first thing to notice is how they seemed to buy low on everybody. Bob Wickman was re-signed after recovering from Tommy John Surgery, Arthur Rhodes was picked up in a salary dump, while Bobby Howry, Rafael Betancourt, and Scott Sauerbeck were all signed to minor league deals while recovering from injuries. Could the secret to bullpen success be accurately predicting a pitcher's recovery from an arm injury?
Take notice of when these guys were signed. Sauerbeck and Howry were each signed during their rehab period before the 2004 season. It seems that this bullpen was built by projecting where these guys were going to be more than a year in the future. It's also interesting to note how many veterans comprised this bullpen. You also have to wonder how much the third ranked defense helped the cause. The fact that the bullpen stayed healthy for much of the year certainly didn't hurt either.
If this strategy seems like it would lead to short lived success, it did. The Cleveland bullpen regressed significantly in 2006. Rhodes and Howry left via free agency, while David Riske was dealt to Boston. It seemed the strategy of loading up on cheap veterans on the mend worked for one season
If you want to see how each pitcher did individually during the 2005 season, check out the team page at Baseball Reference. Wickman, Howry, Rhodes, Riske, and Betancourt were all lights out. Throw in mid-season promotion Fernando Cabrera and Eric Wedge had plenty of options towards the end of the game.
Before looking at this year's Dodger team (#2 on the list), I will spend the next post looking for possible relief pitchers who fit the Indians' plan.
Bob Wickman, 36, RHP
Salary: $2,750,000
Options?: No (5+ Service Time)
2004 Statistics: 29.7 IP, 4.25 ERA, 10 BB, 26 K, 4 HR
Signed: Free Agent, 11/24/04
Re-upping Wickman was a very shrewd move. He had missed all of 2003 and the first part of 2004 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. As a result, the Indians were able to re-sign him to a relatively cheap $2.75 million deal with the hope that he would return to form, being two year's removed from the surgery. Maybe the key to a bullpen is to load up on guys who had Tommy John Surgery two years prior.
David Riske, 28, RHP
Salary: $1,425,000
Options?: No (5+ Service Time)
2004 Statistics: 77.3 IP, 3.72 ERA, 41 BB, 78 K, 11 HR
Signed: 1996 Draft, 56th round
Riske spent time as the Indians closer when Wickman was out, but was much better served for a middle relief role. I estimated that his service time was over 5, but that was not the case for the entire year. As a review, a player cannot be optioned to the minors without the consent when they have over five years of service time. For a guy in his arbitration years, $1.4 million is about what you'd expect for an above average middle reliever.
Arthur Rhodes, 35, LHP
Salary: $3,700,000
Options: No
2004 Statistics: 38.7 IP, 5.12 ERA, 21 BB, 34 K, 9 HR
Signed: Acquired from Pittsburgh for OF Matt Lawton, 12/9/04
Rhodes looked to be nearing the end of the road the previous season with Oakland. He was sent earlier in this offseason from Oakland to Pittsburgh in a salary dump trade for Jason Kendall. Then he was dealt in this other trade for Matt Lawton, it what appeared to be another salary dump*. Maybe sending an overpriced player like Gary Sheffield to a team looking to unload a high priced reliever with rebound potential could be a worthwhile move.
*On the surface it looks like a salary dump, but Matt Lawton was later suspended for steroid use. There were parts of the Mitchell Report which detailed the Dodgers' internal meetings, suspecting Eric Gagne to be a potential user as they were trying to deal him. Perhaps the Indians caught wind of something here and shipped Lawton away while they could.
Scott Sauerbeck, 33, LHP
Salary: $500,000
Options?: No
2004 Statistics: DNP, Out with Torn Labrum and Torn Rotator Cuff
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 4/12/04
Another buy low guy for the Indians. His shoulder surgery was in January, and they snapped him up to a Minor League deal, knowing he'd have to miss the entire 2004 season and excercised the option on his contract to get him on the cheap in 2005.
Rafael Betancourt, 30, RHP
Salary: $338,600
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 66.7 IP, 3.92 ERA, 18 BB, 76 K, 7 HR
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 1/20/03
Betancourt has had a rather unconventional career. Starting out with the Red Sox system as an infielder, he was converted to pitching. After pitching in their system for a number of years, he developed some elbow problems, and instead of having typical ligament replacement surgery in his elbow, he had a metal rod put in there to stabalize the joint. It was after this surgery that he tried out for the Indians and he made the club. After sticking with the bullpen in 2004, the rest has been history.
Bobby Howry, 31, RHP
Salary: $900,000
Options?: No
2004 Statistics: 42.7 IP, 2.74 ERA, 12 BB, 39 K, 5 HR (AAA: 26 IP, 5.19 ERA, 6 BB, 24 K, ? HR)
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 1/7/04
Bobby Howry's career turned around during his two years with Cleveland. He had missed much of the 2003 season following elbow surgery, and the Indians were subsequently able to get him signed to a Minor League deal while he rehabbed his elbow. The patience and foresight paid off as Howry emerged as one of the top relievers in baseball.
Matt Miller, 33, RHP
Salary: $329,700
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 55.3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 23 BB, 55 K, 1 HR (AAA: 14 IP, 1.93 ERA, 6 BB, 17 K, ? HR)
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 2/13/04
Miller, another journeyman, caught fire in 2004. He didn't spend the whole 2005 season in the big leagues, but pitched well when he was up.
Jason Davis, 25, RHP
Salary: $341,700
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 114.3 IP, 5.51 ERA, 51 BB, 72 K, 13 HR (AAA: 54 IP, 3.00 ERA, 18 BB, 39 K, ? HR)
Signed: 1999 Draft, 21st round
Davis actually started the season as the fifth starter, but only because of a brief injury to CC Sabathia. Davis was sent to the bullpen and Miller to AAA upon CC's mid-April return. For that reason, I am including him as a reliever.
Totaling up the statistics:
Number of Relievers: 7 (Even though, I've listed 8 guys, there were only 7 relievers)
Average Salary: $1.29 millon
Amount with Options: 3/8
Previous Year ERA: 4.26
Previous Year BB/9: 3.77
Previous Year K/9: 7.79
Previous Year: HR/9: 1.06
Starting Pitching Innings: 76.1%
Team Defensive Efficiency: 0.720
%Innings Pitched by Opening Day Relievers: 92.1%
Major League Free Agents: 1/8
Drafted: 2/8
Acquired in Trade: 1/8
UDFA: 0/8
Waivers: 0/8
Minor League Free Agents: 4/8
We'll know more about how these numbers compare as we look at other bullpens. You can learn a lot from this team, though. The first thing to notice is how they seemed to buy low on everybody. Bob Wickman was re-signed after recovering from Tommy John Surgery, Arthur Rhodes was picked up in a salary dump, while Bobby Howry, Rafael Betancourt, and Scott Sauerbeck were all signed to minor league deals while recovering from injuries. Could the secret to bullpen success be accurately predicting a pitcher's recovery from an arm injury?
Take notice of when these guys were signed. Sauerbeck and Howry were each signed during their rehab period before the 2004 season. It seems that this bullpen was built by projecting where these guys were going to be more than a year in the future. It's also interesting to note how many veterans comprised this bullpen. You also have to wonder how much the third ranked defense helped the cause. The fact that the bullpen stayed healthy for much of the year certainly didn't hurt either.
If this strategy seems like it would lead to short lived success, it did. The Cleveland bullpen regressed significantly in 2006. Rhodes and Howry left via free agency, while David Riske was dealt to Boston. It seemed the strategy of loading up on cheap veterans on the mend worked for one season
If you want to see how each pitcher did individually during the 2005 season, check out the team page at Baseball Reference. Wickman, Howry, Rhodes, Riske, and Betancourt were all lights out. Throw in mid-season promotion Fernando Cabrera and Eric Wedge had plenty of options towards the end of the game.
Before looking at this year's Dodger team (#2 on the list), I will spend the next post looking for possible relief pitchers who fit the Indians' plan.
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
A possible reliever?
The Giants designated Sergio Romo for assignment today. He's 25, and his minor league numbers look pretty good. This could be a worthwhile pick up.
Okay, maybe not... It looks like he was designated for assignment on a technicality, because he was put on August revocable waivers and couldn't be sent down until he cleared. Oh well.
Okay, maybe not... It looks like he was designated for assignment on a technicality, because he was put on August revocable waivers and couldn't be sent down until he cleared. Oh well.
How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 2
I'm going to change gears a bit in this series. Before, I was going to focus on improved bullpens. Upon a deeper look at those pens, I found that most of those teams just had God-awful pens the year before and simply attained a bulk of their improvement through simple addition by subtraction. Instead, we will focus on successful bullpens since 2004. Here are the top 20, by Fair Run Average:
So those are the bullpens we have at our disposal. The goal here will be to find common threads between those pens that have enabled them to be successful. In order to do this, we will have to use objective measures to determine how these bullpens were built. Bullpens, as a general rule, deal with a lot of flux over the course of the year. Injuries, ineffectiveness, and trades tend to create shakeup. For the purpose of this project, I am going to gather all data (at least initially) for the opening day bullpen. The opening day bullpen will include all players who make the opening day roster and start out in relief, not including a bumped fifth starter. I will also include players who start on the disabled list who were at least strong candidates for the bullpen. Now, let's look specifically at some data that can be taken.
Number of Active Players: Typically 6 or 7 and occasionally 5 or 8. Maybe there is some correlation between number of players in the pen and success they have.
Salary: Due to variation in the number of players, this will be the total base salary of all players divided by the amount of active plus disabled players counted. This will put to the test whether good relievers truly cost money.
Number of Pitchers who can be sent to the minors: This will be all players under five years of service with at least one option year left. Again, this will be divided by the number of active and inactive players. I suspect that roster flexibility enables more pitchers to get a shot, and therefore enables more pitchers to stick as a successful reliever. In fact, I would go so far as to say that this has been the biggest problem with the Tigers' bullpen construction the last two seasons.
Statistics (ERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9): This will be an average of everybody's numbers from the year before. For players in the minors, I will use a simple adjustment that raises the pitcher's ERA, HR/9 or BB/9 by 1 per level down they were in the Majors. I will penalize their K/9 by 1 per level as well. These will be pooled together and a total score will be calculated. In other words, if one pitcher throws one scoreless inning and another puts up a 4.50 ERA in 50 innings, the combined ERA will be 4.41 and not 2.25.
%Innings pitched by the starters: The effect of the starting pitching needs to be measured. The easiest way to measure this will be to show the percentage of the team's innings that the starters were able to pitch. More innings from the bullpen should mean that it is stretched thin.
Defense: Because of availability of statistics, I will have to settle for defensive efficiency instead of zone rating. I strongly suspect that an improved defense will help the bullpen.
Health/Effectiveness of Intended Relievers: This will be calculated by the actual innings pitched by the opening day and opening day disabled relievers.
Transaction Data: How many were signed as MLB free agents? How many Minor League free agents? How many acquired in trades? What was the cost of those trades? How many waiver claims? How many Rule 5 picks?
Deployment: This will use less simple math than the rest. What I will do is calculate the correlation between the pitcher's leverage score and Fair Run Average. This will be for every pitcher who pitched over 20 innings in relief.
What I plan to do is take each of these scores for each of the top bullpens. We'll start tomorrow with the 2005 Indians, and try to work through these bullpens and maybe some of the less successful ones.
| Team | FRA | Year |
| CLE | 3.10 | 2005 |
| LAN | 3.23 | 2008 |
| MIN | 3.26 | 2006 |
| TBA | 3.29 | 2004 |
| TOR | 3.38 | 2008 |
| LAN | 3.47 | 2004 |
| OAK | 3.48 | 2008 |
| BOS | 3.49 | 2007 |
| TBA | 3.50 | 2008 |
| PHI | 3.60 | 2008 |
| MIN | 3.62 | 2005 |
| SDN | 3.63 | 2007 |
| CHA | 3.63 | 2005 |
| NYN | 3.64 | 2006 |
| SLN | 3.65 | 2005 |
| OAK | 3.81 | 2006 |
| ANA | 3.82 | 2005 |
| SDN | 3.86 | 2006 |
| NYA | 3.87 | 2008 |
| CHA | 3.88 | 2008 |
So those are the bullpens we have at our disposal. The goal here will be to find common threads between those pens that have enabled them to be successful. In order to do this, we will have to use objective measures to determine how these bullpens were built. Bullpens, as a general rule, deal with a lot of flux over the course of the year. Injuries, ineffectiveness, and trades tend to create shakeup. For the purpose of this project, I am going to gather all data (at least initially) for the opening day bullpen. The opening day bullpen will include all players who make the opening day roster and start out in relief, not including a bumped fifth starter. I will also include players who start on the disabled list who were at least strong candidates for the bullpen. Now, let's look specifically at some data that can be taken.
Number of Active Players: Typically 6 or 7 and occasionally 5 or 8. Maybe there is some correlation between number of players in the pen and success they have.
Salary: Due to variation in the number of players, this will be the total base salary of all players divided by the amount of active plus disabled players counted. This will put to the test whether good relievers truly cost money.
Number of Pitchers who can be sent to the minors: This will be all players under five years of service with at least one option year left. Again, this will be divided by the number of active and inactive players. I suspect that roster flexibility enables more pitchers to get a shot, and therefore enables more pitchers to stick as a successful reliever. In fact, I would go so far as to say that this has been the biggest problem with the Tigers' bullpen construction the last two seasons.
Statistics (ERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9): This will be an average of everybody's numbers from the year before. For players in the minors, I will use a simple adjustment that raises the pitcher's ERA, HR/9 or BB/9 by 1 per level down they were in the Majors. I will penalize their K/9 by 1 per level as well. These will be pooled together and a total score will be calculated. In other words, if one pitcher throws one scoreless inning and another puts up a 4.50 ERA in 50 innings, the combined ERA will be 4.41 and not 2.25.
%Innings pitched by the starters: The effect of the starting pitching needs to be measured. The easiest way to measure this will be to show the percentage of the team's innings that the starters were able to pitch. More innings from the bullpen should mean that it is stretched thin.
Defense: Because of availability of statistics, I will have to settle for defensive efficiency instead of zone rating. I strongly suspect that an improved defense will help the bullpen.
Health/Effectiveness of Intended Relievers: This will be calculated by the actual innings pitched by the opening day and opening day disabled relievers.
Transaction Data: How many were signed as MLB free agents? How many Minor League free agents? How many acquired in trades? What was the cost of those trades? How many waiver claims? How many Rule 5 picks?
Deployment: This will use less simple math than the rest. What I will do is calculate the correlation between the pitcher's leverage score and Fair Run Average. This will be for every pitcher who pitched over 20 innings in relief.
What I plan to do is take each of these scores for each of the top bullpens. We'll start tomorrow with the 2005 Indians, and try to work through these bullpens and maybe some of the less successful ones.
What did we learn last night?
We learned Ryan Raburn has enough speed to beat out three infield singles.
We learned Placido Polanco can occasionally flash some power... twice.
We learned the Media Relations department is wasting their time when they prepare a pronunciations guide for Ken Harrelson. Sar-dinn-huh?
We learned Fernando Rodney does indeed have upside and truly dominant outings every now and then.
We would have learned that Bobby Seay should be getting more high leverage innings despite throwing with his left hand, but we already knew that. The question is if Jim Leyland learned that.
We learned from Kyle Farnsworth that you cannot buy a bullpen, especially when buying a guy whose homerun tendencies would leave him compared to Clay Council.
We learned Edgar Renteria's defense kills the Tigers. Not only was the booted ball in the bottom of the 14th critical, his lack of range led to the leadoff single in the same inning.
Finally, we learned that you have to treat a pitcher as a different entity after having shoulder surgery. Joel Zumaya two years ago was one of those most dominant relief pitchers in the game. For a guy who has had reconstructive shoulder surgery in the past year, the fact that he is pitching is simply amazing. That doesn't hide the fact that he isn't pitching well. It shouldn't be expected that he pitch well, but yet he's been expected to.
We learned Placido Polanco can occasionally flash some power... twice.
We learned the Media Relations department is wasting their time when they prepare a pronunciations guide for Ken Harrelson. Sar-dinn-huh?
We learned Fernando Rodney does indeed have upside and truly dominant outings every now and then.
We would have learned that Bobby Seay should be getting more high leverage innings despite throwing with his left hand, but we already knew that. The question is if Jim Leyland learned that.
We learned from Kyle Farnsworth that you cannot buy a bullpen, especially when buying a guy whose homerun tendencies would leave him compared to Clay Council.
We learned Edgar Renteria's defense kills the Tigers. Not only was the booted ball in the bottom of the 14th critical, his lack of range led to the leadoff single in the same inning.
Finally, we learned that you have to treat a pitcher as a different entity after having shoulder surgery. Joel Zumaya two years ago was one of those most dominant relief pitchers in the game. For a guy who has had reconstructive shoulder surgery in the past year, the fact that he is pitching is simply amazing. That doesn't hide the fact that he isn't pitching well. It shouldn't be expected that he pitch well, but yet he's been expected to.
Monday, August 04, 2008
How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 1
If there is one part of this year's Tigers team that has stood in the way of winning, it is undoubtedly the bullpen, which is under big time scrutiny after yesterday's disaster. I wanted to start a series looking into ways to fix a bullpen. Frankly, I'm not quite sure how to do it. I plan to look at different ways that teams have tried and see how successful those techniques were in trying to fix a bullpen.
First, I wanted to present some numbers. Below we have the twenty most improved bullpens from one year to the next since 2005. To measure bullpen improvement, I have used Relievers Fair Runs Allowed from Baseball Prospectus, and subtracted from one year to the next.
That's a random bunch of teams. In the coming days/weeks/months/years, I want to break that list down and see how those teams improved and if there was anything in common that was done to improve those bullpens. Here are some factors, based on personal observations, that could lead to an improved bullpen.
First, I wanted to present some numbers. Below we have the twenty most improved bullpens from one year to the next since 2005. To measure bullpen improvement, I have used Relievers Fair Runs Allowed from Baseball Prospectus, and subtracted from one year to the next.
| TBA | 3.3 | 2008 |
| CHA | 2.32 | 2008 |
| CLE | 2.3 | 2005 |
| BAL | 1.68 | 2008 |
| CIN | 1.54 | 2008 |
| SLN | 1.54 | 2005 |
| BOS | 1.51 | 2007 |
| KCA | 1.48 | 2007 |
| ARI | 1.43 | 2006 |
| PHI | 1.41 | 2008 |
| WAS | 1.4 | 2005 |
| CLE | 1.34 | 2007 |
| DET | 1.28 | 2005 |
| OAK | 1.17 | 2008 |
| TEX | 1.06 | 2006 |
| CHA | 1.01 | 2005 |
| SFN | 0.94 | 2007 |
| NYA | 0.93 | 2008 |
| COL | 0.92 | 2005 |
| WAS | 0.88 | 2007 |
That's a random bunch of teams. In the coming days/weeks/months/years, I want to break that list down and see how those teams improved and if there was anything in common that was done to improve those bullpens. Here are some factors, based on personal observations, that could lead to an improved bullpen.
- Better pitchers. This one is easy, but vague. Specifically, I want to check out if relying on pitchers who pitched well the year before to pitch well again in the subsequent season has worked for these teams.
- Spending Money. This one is thrown around frequently. I'm not sure it's as effective as widely believed. This also brings up ways to spend money. Are we talking about increased money paid to the relievers in a given season? Are we talking about acquiring high priced relievers via trade? What about signing a bunch of free agents? How do you measure money spent? And more importantly, does it work?
- Flexibility. If you have five pitchers who are out of options and stuck in a bullpen through stubbornness of a manager, that seemingly makes it incredibly difficult to mix and match until you have the best six or seven guys in the bullpen.
- Health. If your big arm returns from injury, typically, he will reinvigorate the bullpen.
- Defense. More players making plays behind you will help your bullpen hold onto leads. The presence of this year's Tampa Bay team confirms that a dramatic defensive improvement can help a pitching staff in a big way.
- Improved Starting pitching. More innings out of your starters means a fresher bullpen. Jim Leyland always says "You would like to use your bullpen when you want to, not when you need to." There may also be a
- Deployment. Are the best relievers being used in the tightest spots? I've already covered the Tigers' problems with deployment.
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