Monday, July 21, 2008

Pudge Will Be a Type A Free Agent

I'm about 99% of the way through figuring out the Elias rankings for catchers (I will post what I have done as soon as I can fully emulate them). While I don't have the numbers exactly right, I have been able to get last year's catchers in order of their rank.

Applying my formula to this upcoming class, here is how I am projecting the Elias Sports Bureau would rank the American League Catchers if the season ended yesterday.

Victor Martinez 93.878
Jorge Posada 86.939
Joe Mauer 84.082
A.J. Pierzynski 77.959
Ivan Rodriguez 77.959
Jason Varitek 76.327
Kenji Johjima 72.245
Dioner Navarro 70.204
Ramon Hernandez 70.204
Kurt Suzuki 67.755
Miguel Olivo 62.041
Gregg Zaun 62.449
John Buck 59.592
Rod Barajas 60.816
Mike Redmond 60.000
Gerald Laird
Mike Napoli 59.184
Kelly Shoppach 55.918
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 53.061
Jamie Burke 49.796
Jeff Mathis 45.306
Jose Molina 42.041
Rob Bowen 37.959
Jeff Clement 36.327
Jason LaRue 34.286
Curtis Thigpen 32.245
Toby Hall 28.163
Kevin Cash 26.939
Max Ramirez 25.714
Shawn Riggans 25.306
Guillermo Quiroz 23.673
Chad Moeller 22.041
Taylor Teagarden 17.143
Sal Fasano 14.286
Ryan Budde 3.673
Vance Wilson 0.000

The top 7 would qualify as Type A players, while the next 7 are Type B. Martinez and Posada are in the midst of injury plagued seasons, while guys trailing Rodriguez such as Jason Varitek and Kenji Johjima are struggling this year. As a result, I am fairly confident in saying that Ivan Rodriguez will be a class A player this offseason. This means the Tigers would get a sandwich pick and a first/second round pick if he signs with another team after being offered arbitration.

After I can figure out the formula to a tee, I will post the methodology and hopefully the compensation status of other Tigers' free agents.


Matt said...

I've been wondering if he would get Type A, and that will be an interesting debate for the FO.

Is the risk of him accepting arbitration and making something greater than $10.4M (no great than 20% paycut, right?) worth the shot at two top draft picks?

Since he probably would get a bit more than that minimum if he accepted, I kind of doubt it.

Bill said...

Great stuff Eddie. Just don't forget to add in Jamie Burke's pitching performance!

Eddie B said...

Haha on Burke

Actually, I need to be careful not to do just that. It appears as if defensive stats are only to be counted for time at the designated position...

I'll have more on the methodology in the coming days... Basically when I get stuck trying to figure out this last problem...

Lee Panas said...

Great work Eddie. It's good to know the status of free agents ahead of time. Getting two picks for Pudge would be a good thing.


bryan said...

I say offer it to him. What's the worst that happens? He accepts it? Since we don't have a Max Ramirez waiting in the wings, I'll take another year of Pudge.

Who knows? Maybe he'll go into the Hall as a Tiger if he plays another year that he enjoys. I'd love to see another D hat in bronze.

(That's obviously not something to consider in this decision AT ALL, and highly unlikely anyway due to his time with the Rangers, but it is kind of fun to think about I think.)