Saturday, July 26, 2008

One More Elias Post

I have found a simple approximation for the disabled list adjustment that works for most players. Some players (Shawn Riggans of the Rays for example) with more time on the DL than on an active roster will tend to throw off the system, but the approximation works fairly well. Ivan Rodriguez now has an approximate score of 78.571, ranking fifth among catchers. Kenji Johjima's 73.850 is the cutoff between Type A and Type B free agents. I am still very confident that Rodriguez will be a Type A free agent after the season. That may change, though, if he is traded to the National League and he is compared to a different set of catchers.

I have run numbers for shortstops, and Edgar Renteria has come out with a score of 78.261. Remember, second base, shortstop and third base are all scored separately and then combined with the top 20 percent of scores from the three positions being assigned Type A status. I have not run the numbers for 2B and 3B, but looking at past history, a score of 75 or above will typically be good for Type A status in this group. Barring some weird distribution of scores in 2B and 3B, I would expect Edgar Renteria to be a Type A free agent this offseason. Believe it or not, the change in Renteria's score is probably less dependent on his performance from here to the end of the season than it is on other teams' roster decisions. If players like Ben Zobrist, Luis Hernandez, Michael Hollimon, Reid Brignac, and Jorge Valendia get September call ups and crack the rankings, Renteria's score will go up. All this said, if the Renteria to the Dodgers rumors have any validity, I have a hard time seeing him grade this highly against shortstops in the Senior Circuit.

Now, Edgar Renteria has an option on his contract, but he can still be offered arbitration. He is kind of a unique case. Most players with an option on their contract that is declined will not be offered arbitration because a team is already on the hook the buyout of the option. Take Renteria for example:

He is making $9,000,000 this year, with an $11,000,000 options for next year that will cost $3,000,000 if declined. If the option is declined, but arbitration is offered and accepted, the team would be on the hook for a minimum of $10,200,000 for next year. For that reason, you rarely see players with a declined option offered arbitration.

But Renteria is a unique case. According to Cot's Contracts, part of the terms of Renteria's trade to Atlanta is that Boston is now on the hook for the $3,000,000 buyout. This makes a world of difference, as the minimum amount the Tigers will pay Renteria during arbitration is $7.2M (65% of the option) as opposed to 93% of the option with the buyout in place. I actually think Renteria on a one year deal, albeit expensive, could be a worthwhile gamble, especially if somebody else takes the bait and nets the Tigers two top draft choices.

I'll try to keep updated on Renteria's status, but this could turn out well for the Tigers.

Update: I just found that the 80% rule does not apply to free agents in arbitration. This means there is no minimum to the amount Renteria or Rodriguez could get through the arbitration process. Rodriguez can be offered significantly less than $10.48M and Renteria less than $7.2M in the event that they accept arbitration.

I definitely believe that both players should be offered arbitration after the season.

1 comment:

Jeremy said...

the other thing to consider re arbitration is would Renteria be willing to take a one-year deal. At 33, I'd bet he'd want a little more security than that. If it came down to accepting arbitration and playing for one year for approx. 10 million or signing somewhere else for 2-3 years at 8-9 million per year, he may like that option better.

You'd have to think that some team out there would want a veteran shortstop - maybe a st. louis, toronto, baltimore, pittsburgh, etc.