Final Elias Rankings - American League Relief Pitchers

Name	Type	TotalScore
J.J. Putz	A	89.764
Joe Nathan	A	88.568
Francisco Rodriguez	A	87.927
Huston Street	A	84.369
Mariano Rivera	A	84.135
Joakim Soria	A	83.115
Jonathan Papelbon	A	83.027
Rafael Betancourt	A	82.152
Ron Mahay	A	81.773
Hideki Okajima	A	81.015
Damaso Marte	A	79.323
Scot Shields	A	79.294
Bobby Jenks	A	77.632
Joaquin Benoit	A	76.349
Scott Downs	A	76.174
George Sherrill	A	75.970
Joba Chamberlain	A	75.153
Troy Percival	A	75.007
Matt Thornton	A	74.628
Octavio Dotel	A	73.520
C.J. Wilson	A	73.053
Pat Neshek	A	71.770
Rafael Perez	A	71.449
Darren Oliver	A	71.304
Ramon Ramirez	A	70.283
Dan Wheeler	B	69.612
Matt Guerrier	B	69.525
Grant Balfour	B	67.950
Brian Bruney	B	67.804
Joey Devine	B	67.367
Ryan Rowland-Smith	B	65.996
Scott Linebrink	B	65.646
Jamey Wright	B	65.150
Sean Green	B	65.034
Jose Arredondo	B	64.946
Dennys Reyes	B	64.421
Zach Miner	B	64.304
J.P. Howell	B	63.692
Jesse Carlson	B	63.575
Frank Francisco	B	63.400
Javier Lopez	B	63.225
Manny Delcarmen	B	62.730
Jeremy Accardo	B	61.971
Brad Ziegler	B	61.388
Santiago Casilla	B	61.097
Alan Embree	B	60.747
Bobby Seay	B	60.455
Trever Miller	B	60.192
Chad Bradford	B	58.734
Justin Speier	B	58.676
Dennis Sarfate	B	56.810
Fernando Rodney		56.460
Brian Tallet		56.022
Jose Veras		55.614
Mike Timlin		55.118
Gary Glover		55.001
Todd Jones		54.506
Andrew Brown		53.689
Leo Nunez		53.689
Justin Masterson		53.514
Jamie Walker		53.456
Casey Janssen		52.843
B.J. Ryan		52.668
Kip Wells		52.406
Roy Corcoran		52.348
Edwar Ramirez		51.735
Kyle Farnsworth		51.035
Matt Albers		50.773
Jensen Lewis		50.627
Jason Frasor		49.869
Jason Hammel		48.965
Jesse Crain		48.819
Aquilino Lopez		48.381
Jimmy Gobble		48.294
Chris Ray		47.609
Robinson Tejeda		46.777
Eddie Guardado		46.136
Scott Feldman		45.669
David Aardsma		44.561
Jim Johnson		44.182
Juan Rincon		44.094
Joel Peralta		43.074
Horacio Ramirez		43.045
Josh Rupe		41.586
Lance Cormier		41.382
D.J. Carrasco		41.149
Joel Zumaya		40.216
Craig Breslow		38.845
Casey Fossum		38.145
Brandon Duckworth		37.795
Dustin Nippert		37.620
Fernando Cabrera		35.316
Jonathan Albaladejo		34.529
John Parrish		33.625
Masahide Kobayashi		33.567
Alberto Castillo		33.202
Juan Salas		32.998
Brandon League		32.225
Randy Messenger		31.642
Shawn Camp		30.300
Brendan Donnelly		29.484
John Rheinecker		29.353
Dan Giese		28.871
John Bale		28.171
Lance Broadway		27.472
Adam Russell		27.078
Jerry Blevins		26.859
A.J. Murray		26.830
Cesar Jimenez		26.305
Ryan Braun		25.984
Rocky Cherry		25.314
Luis Mendoza		25.284
Keith Foulke		24.322
Edward Mujica		23.739
Danys Baez		23.462
Humberto Sanchez		21.464
Shane Loux		20.472
James Hoey		19.481
Kirk Saarloos		17.148
Warner Madrigal		16.944
Chris Britton		15.340
Randor Bierd		12.394
Jae Kuk Ryu		10.470
Jake Woods		9.945
Andrew Sisco		4.404
Jeff Fulchino		2.945
David Pauley		2.275
Chad Orvella		1.954

Kyle Farnsworth appears to be short of Type B Status. To add insult to injury, he ends up behind the likes of Gary Glover. Naturally, Casey Fossum was also well short of Type B. Among the free agents, who should the Tigers look at?

Francisco Rodriguez (A): Will want too much money for a guy whose stats were essentially padded this year. Look past the number of saves. Was he a better closer than Papelbon, Nathan, Rivera, and Soria? No.

Damaso Marte (A): It seems like his option is going to be declined. Turning 34 this offseason, he may be on the decline but could be worth it if the Yankees don't get the Tigers' second round pick for him.

Darren Oliver (A): Has turned into a solid loogy in his career's twilight. Not worth the pick or a multi year deal though.

Jamey Wright (B): His Type B status baffles me. For a below average swing man, anything more than a spring invite is overpaying.

Dennys Reyes (B): LOOGY extraordinaire. He has faced 2.7 hitters per appearance in his three years with the Twins. I wouldn't overpay for him, but could be worth a look.

Alan Embree (B): Embree started to walk too many people this year. If the A's reject his option, he's worth a cheep one year deal but nothing more.

Trever Miller (B): Drafted by the Tigers 17 years ago, an okay second lefty now. I have no idea if the Rays will accept his option or not, but the same applies to him as to others: no more than a year and no more than $1M.

Kyle Farnsworth (None): Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Eddie Guardado (None): Second year back from Tommy John. Even at 38, a resurgence isn't out of the question. Again, a cheap deal is okay.

Juan Rincon (None): Has gotten worse and worse the past few years. No thanks.

Horacio Ramirez (None): One of the most embarassing things a hitter can do is get struck out by Ramirez. Nothing more than a non-roster invitee.

Casey Fossum (None): If he's back, the Tigers will have another losing season.

John Parrish (None): 184BB and 221 K for his career. Pass.

Brendan Donnelly (None): Returning from Tommy John. There's rebound potential, but it's not worth it to go overboard bringing him in.

Keith Foulke (None): If the fork hasn't been stuck in him, finish the deal now. If he wanted to sign with the Tigers, he should have done so when they drafted him out of high school.

Again, not much there. You are probably as likely to get an impact arm at a reasonable price by vigilantly searching the waiver wire.

Final Elias Rankings - American League Starting Pitchers

More on how these are calculated can be found with the National League rankings. Again, caveats about the accuracy of my DL data apply, as just being a day off on the DL days can lead to significant changes in the rankings. As far as free agents go, this shouldn't be a problem as most free agents are away from the border.

Name	Type	TotalScore
Roy Halladay	A	95.307
John Lackey	A	93.487
A.J. Burnett	A	90.038
Josh Beckett	A	89.080
Daisuke Matsuzaka	A	88.697
Scott Kazmir	A	87.739
James Shields	A	86.973
Felix Hernandez	A	86.207
Andy Pettitte	A	81.322
Javier Vazquez	A	80.460
Fausto Carmona	A	79.406
Mike Mussina	A	78.927
Justin Verlander	A	78.544
Cliff Lee	A	78.161
Mark Buehrle	A	77.969
Gil Meche	A	77.682
Erik Bedard	A	75.766
Zack Greinke	B	75.096
Jon Lester	B	75.000
Chien-Ming Wang	B	74.042
Jered Weaver	B	73.563
Scott Baker	B	70.881
Tim Wakefield	B	70.498
Kevin Millwood	B	69.061
Jeremy Guthrie	B	68.487
Ervin Santana	B	67.433
Jon Garland	B	67.337
Joe Saunders	B	66.284
Paul Byrd	B	65.613
Kelvim Escobar	B	65.326
Dustin McGowan	B	63.697
Daniel Cabrera	B	61.877
Vicente Padilla	B	61.782
John Danks	B	59.387
Edwin Jackson	B	58.238
Jesse Litsch		57.759
Gavin Floyd		56.226
Jose Contreras		56.130
Miguel Batista		55.651
Brian Bannister		55.460
Matt Garza		55.268
Justin Duchscherer		54.406
Andy Sonnanstine		54.119
Kevin Slowey		53.257
Glen Perkins		52.586
Nate Robertson		51.628
Jeremy Bonderman		51.533
Carlos Silva		51.341
Jarrod Washburn		49.713
Armando Galarraga		49.521
Boof Bonser		43.774
Curt Schilling		43.008
Kyle Davies		42.146
Kason Gabbard		42.050
Jake Westbrook		40.996
Nick Blackburn		40.709
Kenny Rogers		40.517
Dana Eveland		38.889
Brian Burres		38.027
Francisco Liriano		37.548
Alfredo Aceves		34.387
Greg Smith		33.238
Kameron Loe		32.088
Bartolo Colon		31.322
Matt Harrison		31.226
Sidney Ponson		29.789
Brandon McCarthy		27.586
Darrell Rasner		26.533
Anthony Reyes		25.862
Carl Pavano		25.862
Sean Gallagher		22.797
Luke Hochevar		21.935
Dallas Braden		21.743
Jeremy Sowers		21.169
R.A. Dickey		20.498
Adam Loewen		20.498
Chris Waters		18.295
Troy Patton		17.816
Jason Jennings		15.613
David Purcey		14.559
Zach Jackson		12.931
Ryan Feierabend		10.920
Eric Hurley		9.770
Clayton Richard		8.525
Gio Gonzalez		6.897
Scott Elarton		3.065
Luke Hudson		2.011
Andrew Brackman		1.437

As far as the Tigers are concerned, Freddy Garcia was not on the roster on August 31 and therefore was not eligible for the rankings. Kenny Rogers also failed to qualify for Type B status after struggling down the stretch. Let's take a look at these free agents to see if any are worth signing.

• John Lackey (A): The Angels have an option on him and will probably use it. He's still a very good pitcher and worth persuing if for some reason he's available.
• A.J. Burnett (A): Has an opt-out clause. With all of the injuries in his history, I'd have a hard time giving up the pick and the money for this guy. He's due for a break down.
• Andy Pettite (A): I don't think he'll do anything other than retire or stay with the Yankees. Wouldn't be worth the draft pick at this stage in his career.
• Mike Mussina (A): Had a fine rebound this year. A Hall of Famer in my book, it may be worth seeing if he has anything left in the tank, especially if the Yankees neglect to offer arbitration. Random fact about Mussina, he hasn't walked more than 50 guys in a season since 1999 and the only time he walked more than 60 was 1996.
• Tim Wakefield (B): Has the infinitely recurring option. If the Red Sox let him go, he could be a solid innings eater for a team that needs it. Yes, the Tigers may need it.
• Jon Garland (B): He's been hovering below 5 K/9 the past two years. Honestly, unless the Tigers improve the defense, this is a disaster waiting to happen. On a cheap short term deal? Sign him. If he wants more than 2/$10M, no way.
• Paul Byrd (B): Like Garland, only worse. The only benefit to signing him is that he would never be able to pitch against the Tigers with him on the team.
• Curt Schilling (None): He's dellusional if he thinks he can pitch again. No thanks.
• Kenny Rogers (None): Will either return to the Tigers or retire. Hopefully he retires.
• Bartolo Colon (None): A guy on the rebound, could be worth a shot on a minor league deal.
• Sidney Ponson (None): An awful pitcher and a worse person. Pass
• Carl Pavano (None): Seriously, buy low. He's coming off of Tommy John surgery last year and could be in line for a rebound in '09. It honestly can't hurt.
• Jason Jennings (None): A guy who was a pretty good pitcher before elbow injuries the past two years. If he will agree to a minor league deal in the hope that he recovers to innings eater form, it can't hurt to give him a try.

I'll have the relievers up later today.

IC Rankings - Week 8

A bit earlier this week, here are the IC Rankings. Once again, IC stands for Initial Condition, a differential equations term, that refers to the starting position and affects the solution. They start in reverse order before Week 1 and use similar patterns to the human rankings, looking only at the most recent week's ranking and performance with teams staying pat unless they lose and getting major boosts for beating ranked teams. Unranked teams in the human polls are typically treated equally.

This week, #1 Northwestern lost to #9 Michigan State at home. This bumps Northwestern from the top spot and moves Michigan State up to #5. #3 Vanderbilt also lost at Mississippi State. The beneficiary here is #2 Tulsa who moves into the top spot. Texas' win over Oklahoma boosts them up to second as Alabama slides into third. Missouri and Oklahoma are the only teams to fall out of the rankings with Boise State and Florida taking their spots.

1. Tulsa (#2 Last week)
2. Texas (6)
   
3. Alabama (4)
   
4. Utah (5)
5. Michigan State (9)
6. Minnesota (7)
7. Oklahoma State (13)
8. Northwestern (1)
9. Wake Forest (10)
10. Penn State (19)
11. Ball State (12)
12. Ohio State (14)
13. Vanderbilt (3)
14. Kansas (17)
15. Connecticut (16)
16. BYU (22)
17. Texas Tech (24)
18. North Carolina (23)
19. South Florida (18)
20. Arizona (8)
21. Pittsburgh (21)
22. Florida (NR)
23. Boise State (NR)
24. Notre Dame (11)
25. LSU (15)

Also Receiving Votes: Virginia Tech, Missouri, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Duke, Kansas State, Arkansas State, TCU, Georgia, Western Michigan

Joe Buck

The man sounds like he simply wants to be anywhere but a baseball game when he is calling them. There are millions of Americans who would be thrilled to be in your seat, Joe. You do not deserve that job if you do not enjoy baseball. Show some enthusiasm!

IC Rankings - Week 7

I just realized I haven't posted these yet this week. This does not include any games since Saturday.
The top three remain the same as Northwestern had a bye, Tulsa clobbered Rice, and Vanderbilt held on against Aubrn. Duke falls from #4 all the way out of the rankings with a loss to previously unranked Georgia Tech gave them their second loss. Connecticut and South Florida were other top 10 teams to lose, but remain in the rankings with it only being their first lost each. New to the rankings are unbeaten Missouri, BYU, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech as well as one loss teams Pittsburgh and North Carolina, who knocked off top ten teams this week. Boise State is now the only unbeaten team still out of the top 25.

1. Northwestern (1)
2. Tulsa (2)
3. Vanderbilt (3)
4. Alabama (6)
5. Utah (7)
6. Texas (11)
7. Minnesota (9)
8. Arizona (10)
9. Michigan State (12)
10. Wake Forest (13)
11. Notre Dame (15)
12. Ball State (17)
13. Oklahoma State (22)
14. Ohio State (23)
15. LSU (19)
16. Connecticut (5)
17. Kansas (18)
18. South Florida (8)
19. Penn State (25)
20. Missouri
21. Pittsburgh
22. BYU
23. North Carolina
24. Texas Tech
25. Oklahoma

Also Receiving votes: Georgia Tech, Duke, Boise State, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Arkansas State, TCU, Nebraska

Elias Schedule

I've been running a bit late on the Elias Rankings, but here is a tentative schedule on when they should be posted. Again, each group will get it's own post, instead of an update in the old master list.

Monday 10/13: American League SP and RP
Tuesday 10/14: American League and National League Catchers
Wednesday 10/15: American league and National League First Basemen
Thursday 10/16: American League Outfielders
Friday 10/17: American League Designated Hitters, AL Combined 1B/OF/DH
Sunday 10/19: National League Outfielders
Monday 10/20: NL Combined 1B/OF
Tuesday 10/21: American and Naitonal League Second Basemen
Wednesday 10/22: American and National League Third Basemen
Thursday 10/23: American and National League Shortstops
Friday 10/24: AL and NL Combined 2B/3B/SS

I want to post each position individually before combining them into the positional groups so that I can really get down to explaining where these rankings come from and why some things are peculiar. If you have any questions that you want addressed during this series, please leave a comment in the thread and I'll address them as I go through the positions.

Awful Announcing Interviews Granderson

Just a quick interview with Granderson, talking mostly about his TBS duties:

http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/10/aa-interview-with-curtis-granderson.html

He's been very good in the studio, and I'm glad that it's not just my biased self that is pointing this out. The segment last week on stolen bases, timing the pitcher, catcher and base runner for different scenarios was top notch.

Rough Day for Tigers' Pitching Prospects

While I haven't gotten into previewing the upcoming 40 man roster decisions, the Tigers have some candidates in the Arizona Fall League. Among those presumably vying for spots, Luis Marte and Zach Simons pitched today. Rudy Darrow also took the hill today, but he is still a year away from Rule 5 eligibility. I'll get more into these decisions in the future, but for now we'll just say none of these guys helped their cause today:

Luis Marte: 1 IP, 3H, 3ER, 1BB, 0K
Zach Simons: 2 IP, 4H, 4ER, 1BB, 1K, 2HR, 2 2B
Rudy Darrow: 1 IP, 3H, 2ER, 2BB, 2K

It's way too early to come to conclusions, but for guys vying for a shot at next year's bullpen, they all need to be making a better impression. This is extra true for Marte, who didn't exactly inspire confidence in that injured elbow after returning from rehab.

Final Elias Projections - NL Relievers

I wanted to have more of these posted by now, but I haven't had much time to work on them. With excuses out of the way, the NL Relievers are next. Once again, I will give the caveat that being one or two days off on the disabled list time can completely throw off these rankings. They will not be 100%. One other potential source of error I just caught deals with the winning percentage of players with no record. I have assumed them to be .000, but they could be .500. If they are .500, that would drastically affect the rankings of any player with a losing record. Guys with losing records near the bottom of each tier include Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman. Meanwhile, players like Joe Biemel and Arthur Rhodes would be unaffected with their winning records and could be the beneficiary of such an adjustment. Before showing the rankings, let's show how they are calculated to help alleviate any questions.

• All pitchers on an active roster or disabled list on August 31 are eligible.
• For the reliever rankings, pitchers who relieved more games than they started in 2007 and 2008 combined are included. Pitchers with no games count as starters and are not eligible.
• Statistics used are totals for the 2007 and 2008 season.
• For all counting stats, there is an adjustment for days missed on the disabled list.
• The stats used for relievers are Total Games (Games Started*2+Games Relieved), Innings Pitched, Wins+Saves, Winning Percentage, ERA, IP/Hits, and Strikeouts. Note that Innings receive just 75% of the weight of the others.
• Each player is ranked in each of the categories, with the leader getting the maximum amount of points and the last place player in the category getting zero.
• The total score the percentage of possible points attained by the player.

As an example, let's take a look at how in the world Doug Brocail ranks as a Type A free agent.

Before going into his stats, Brocail missed 20 days on the disabled list last year. This means that each of his counting statistics will be multiplied by 364/344 or 1.05814 to adjust.

• Brocail appeared in 139 games, all in relief, over the past two seasons. Multiplying by the adjustment, he comes out to 147.1 total games. This ranks 22nd out of the 150 relievers, getting him 128 points.
• He proceeded to have 145 1/3 innings. Multiplied by the adjustment, this comes out to 153.8 innings. This is good for 32nd. The 118 points he would receive are adjusted and multiplied by .75. He gets 88.5 out of the possible 111.75.
• Here you will start to see the biggest flaw in this ranking. Brocail finished up with 12 wins and two saves, totalling 14. Multiplying by the adjustment, he gets credited for 14.8: good for 36th place and 114 points.
• Winning percentage is next. Before going into Brocail's winning percentage, can I point out how ludicrous it is to count this stat? Is a reliever racking up wins really practicing a skill? It's really just a matter of if they happen to be in a game when the offense decides to put some runs on the board. Sometimes they get so lucky that they can blow the lead and be on the hill when the offense takes the lead back. If we are rewarding relievers for doing that, we know what was suspected before anybody tried to figure out these rankings. They are crap. Anyways, Brocail put up an impressive 12-6 record with a winning percentage of .667. He is in a massive tie for 23rd with Clay Condrey, Jack Taschner, Doug Waechter, Cory Wade, and Alex Hinshaw. They share the 23rd through 28th place points and get 124.5 points apiece for winning percentage.
• Brocail put up a solid 3.47 ERA, but it was only good for 50th place among the pool of relievers. This gets him 100 points for ERA.
  
• With 129 hits allowed in 145 1/3 innings, Brocail had 1.13 IP/H, 51st best among relievers. He gets 99 points here.
• Finally, Brocail had 107 strikeouts, prorated to 113.2. This was the 46th best total among relievers, good for 104 points.

Brocail's final score is equal to (128+88.5+114+124.5+100+99+104)/(6.75*149), or 75.367.

This total is good for 13th place among all relievers, well within the top 20 percent who attain Type A status. You may notice the projected cut for A/B status is 67.338. That is quite low compared to other positions, which tend to be in the mid 70's. Looking at the categories, you can see why. It is very easy for several players to put together a few dominant innings and dominate ERA and IP/H. Meanwhile, players who spent some time starting will rack up the innings and strikeouts, as evidenced by Ryan Dempster, Brett Myers, and Chad Gaudin loading up the innings and strikeouts. Total games will be dominated by LOOGY's who face one batter a game, while wins+saves will be run primarily by closers. Those closers, though, don't get that big of a boost because non-closers can still rack up 120 points in that category. Whereas C.C. Sabathia almost ran the table, it is very difficult to do so given the categories used for relievers. Finally, I'm done blabbing, here are the rankings:

Name	Type	TotalScore
Brad Lidge	A	89.361
Carlos Marmol	A	86.329
Heath Bell	A	85.334
Takashi Saito	A	83.743
Ryan Dempster	A	83.520
Russ Springer	A	81.929
Juan Cruz	A	81.929
Jose Valverde	A	79.319
Jonathan Broxton	A	78.822
Billy Wagner	A	76.709
Kevin Gregg	A	75.665
Chad Qualls	A	75.466
Doug Brocail	A	75.367
Brian Fuentes	A	75.242
Matt Capps	A	74.969
Jon Rauch	A	74.621
Ryan Madson	A	73.726
Francisco Cordero	A	73.478
Jared Burton	A	72.956
Manuel Corpas	A	72.086
Kerry Wood	A	72.036
John Grabow	A	71.688
Tony Pena	A	71.066
J.C. Romero	A	70.694
Jesus Colome	A	68.804
Aaron Heilman	A	68.084
Taylor Buchholz	A	67.785
Jason Isringhausen	A	67.711
Ryan Franklin	A	67.487
Carlos Villanueva	A	67.338
Joe Beimel	B	67.064
Jeremy Affeldt	B	66.617
Peter Moylan	B	66.592
Luis Vizcaino	B	66.542
Chad Durbin	B	66.020
Chad Gaudin	B	65.896
Rafael Soriano	B	65.896
Scott Proctor	B	65.051
Saul Rivera	B	65.026
Brett Myers	B	64.802
Salomon Torres	B	64.753
Pedro Feliciano	B	64.715
Brian Shouse	B	64.529
Bobby Howry	B	63.932
Jason Grilli	B	63.659
Dave Weathers	B	63.560
Joe Smith	B	63.336
Tim Byrdak	B	63.311
Rudy Seanez	B	62.864
Tyler Yates	B	62.665
Trevor Hoffman	B	62.043
Joel Hanrahan	B	61.322
Eric Gagne	B	61.049
Matt Lindstrom	B	60.900
Renyel Pinto	B	59.906
Buddy Carlyle	B	59.682
Chris Sampson	B	59.558
Hong-Chih Kuo	B	59.060
Joe Nelson	B	59.060
Brandon Lyon	B	58.091
Arthur Rhodes		57.992
Geoff Geary		56.997
Sean Marshall		56.351
Brian Wilson		55.829
Chad Cordero		55.580
Brad Thompson		55.232
Logan Kensing		55.208
LaTroy Hawkins		55.058
Brian Moehler		54.661
Cory Wade		54.064
Guillermo Mota		53.443
Scott Eyre		52.871
Will Ohman		52.523
Mike Gonzalez		52.250
Mark Hendrickson		52.125
Henry Owens		51.255
Sergio Romo		51.106
Kevin Correia		50.907
Manny Acosta		50.733
Cla Meredith		50.659
David Riske		50.584
Matt Herges		50.584
Jeff Bennett		50.186
Justin Hampson		49.863
Luis Ayala		49.515
Edgar Gonzalez		48.869
Clay Condrey		48.720
Seth McClung		48.185
Jack Taschner		48.049
Steven Shell		47.502
Tom Gordon		47.030
Mike Adams		46.408
Duaner Sanchez		46.085
Alex Hinshaw		46.085
Chris Perez		45.911
Jeff Samardzija		45.464
Tyler Walker		44.867
Bill Bray		44.693
Lee Gardner		44.494
Merkin Valdez		44.320
Julian Tavarez		44.146
Ambiorix Burgos		44.096
Brett Tomko		43.873
Wesley Wright		42.381
Ryan Speier		40.989
Scott Schoeneweis		40.691
Doug Waechter		40.418
Ron Villone		40.393
Chan Ho Park		39.398
Kent Mercker		36.987
Tyler Johnson		36.776
Wilfredo Ledezma		36.565
Jon Lieber		35.943
Keiichi Yabu		35.521
Nick Masset		34.526
Tony Armas		34.054
Max Scherzer		33.060
Matt Wise		32.314
Denny Bautista		32.115
Josh Kinney		31.718
Kyle McClellan		29.058
Mike Lincoln		28.909
Glendon Rusch		28.163
Ramon Troncoso		27.716
Billy Sadler		27.542
Sean Burnett		26.821
Blaine Boyer		26.199
Garrett Mock		25.354
Nelson Figueroa		24.534
Charlie Manning		24.509
Brian Stokes		24.459
Mike Zagurski		23.788
Jason Davis		23.714
Clay Hensley		22.719
Vladimir Nunez		22.645
Neal Cotts		21.626
Angel Guzman		18.543
Chad Fox		17.425
Brian Falkenborg		16.281
Dick Hayhurst		16.157
Elmer Dessens		14.653
Gary Majewski		14.044
Jason Johnson		12.702
Osiris Matos		11.285
Harvey Garcia		10.142
Francisco Rosario		9.993
Jesse Chavez		4.300
Marco Estrada		3.505
Scott Elbert		2.361
Yhency Brazoban		2.138

Free Agent
Free Agent with Option
Released

From the Tigers standpoint, I'd honestly steer clear of most of these guys. It is just so much easier to pitch in the National League, even for relievers who don't get to face other pitchers. Between the interleague disparity and plenty of American League pitchers who went to National League clubs and started dominating, there is enough evidence to show that the National League is just weaker. Whether it's Sabathia and Harden pitching flawlessly or Tigers' castoffs like Tim Byrdak, Jason Grilli, and Chad Durbin finding a home there, you have to account for league strength before picking anybody up from the other league. I just don't think the second round draft pick is worth giving up for any of the Type A guys.

Mike Scioscia Should be Fired on the Spot

Calling for a squeeze in that situation was one of the worst managerial moves I have ever seen, with dire consequences. I am so thrilled to see small ball cost a team the game.

Final Elias Projections - NL Starting Pitchers

Below are the National League Starting Pitchers. I've gone through and double checked the disabled list time and have them all down to within a few days. Because it depends on whether or not the player was placed on the DL before or after the game, there are likely some inconsistencies. When adjusting player's DL spots by a game or two, a player would gain as much as two percentage points in the final rankings. Because of that, I cannot guarantee that players on the borders, such as Jamie Moyer and Randy Johnson are in the correct group.

A review of how these were calculated.

• All pitchers on a National League roster or disabled on August 31 are eligible.
• Pitchers are classified as a starter or reliever based on how they were used more frequently in the 2007 and 2008 seasons combined. Also, players with no games played are counted with the starters.
  
• Statistics used are the totals from the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
• For all counting statistics, there is an adjustment for missed time based on days spent on the disabled list.
• The statistics used are: Total Games (Games Started+.5*Games Relieved), Innings Pitched, Wins, Winning Percentage, ERA, and Strikeouts.
• Each player is ranked in each of the categories, with the leader getting the maximum amount of points and the last place player in the category getting zero.

As an example, let's look at leader C.C. Sabathia.

• With his 69 total games, Sabathia ranks second behind Aaron Harang (71.34). Sabathia gets 94 out of 95 possible points.
• Sabathia, with 494 innings, led NL Starting pitchers. He gets the maximum 95 points here.
• Totaling 40 wins, Sabathia led all NL Starting pitchers. That's 95 more points.
• Sabathia's 40-17 record puts his winning percentage at .679. This ranks behind Rich Harden (.733), Edinson Volquez (.731), Tim Lincecum (.714), and Brandon Webb (.702). He gets 91 out of the possible 95 here.
• Sabathia's impressive 2.95 ERA over the past two years wasn't enough to lead this pool of players. Rich Harden (2.12), Josh Geer (2.67), Jake Peavy (2.68), Chris Volstad (2.88), and Johan Santana (2.92) were able to better him. Sabathia gets 90 out of 95 points for ERA.
• Finally, Sabathia was able to get the maximum 95 points for strikeouts after leading these players with 460.

Total these numbers up (94+95+94+91+90+95), and you get 559 out of a possible 570. That's 98.070 percent of possible points, and 98.070 is Sabathia's projected Elias score.

Here's the rest:

Name		TotalScore
C.C. Sabathia	A	98.070
Brandon Webb	A	96.140
Cole Hamels	A	92.281
Danny Haren	A	90.965
Roy Oswalt	A	90.614
Johan Santana	A	90.526
Jake Peavy	A	88.070
Ted Lilly	A	87.544
Tim Hudson	A	85.965
Carlos Zambrano	A	83.509
Tim Lincecum	A	81.579
John Maine	A	79.649
Aaron Harang	A	78.947
Ben Sheets	A	78.596
Adam Wainwright	A	77.544
Oliver Perez	A	77.105
Derek Lowe	A	75.088
Jamie Moyer	A	73.246
Aaron Cook	A	72.895
Kyle Lohse	B	71.491
Bronson Arroyo	B	71.228
Joe Blanton	B	70.088
Chad Billingsley	B	70.000
Brad Penny	B	68.333
Jeff Francis	B	67.544
Doug Davis	B	67.368
John Smoltz	B	66.316
Chris Young	B	65.000
Matt Cain	B	64.737
Randy Wolf	B	64.737
Greg Maddux	B	63.772
Jeff Suppan	B	63.596
Braden Looper	B	62.719
Rich Harden	B	62.368
Wandy Rodriguez	B	62.281
Edinson Volquez	B	61.842
Ricky Nolasco	B	59.561
Todd Wellemeyer	B	59.561
Randy Johnson		58.860
Jason Marquis		58.596
Ian Snell		58.246
David Bush		57.632
Paul Maholm		55.702
Barry Zito		55.175
Scott Olsen		53.860
Livan Hernandez		53.070
Ubaldo Jimenez		51.754
Tom Gorzelanny		50.702
Jair Jurrjens		50.439
Kyle Kendrick		48.596
Tom Glavine		48.246
Odalis Perez		47.544
Jorge De La Rosa		47.018
Joel Pineiro		46.754
Noah Lowry		46.579
Yovani Gallardo		46.491
Orlando Hernandez		46.404
Mike Pelfrey		42.895
Manny Parra		42.105
Tim Redding		40.526
Jay Bergmann		39.035
Chris Volstad		38.947
Josh Fogg		38.246
Josh Johnson		37.982
Hiroki Kuroda		37.719
Cha Seung Baek		37.368
Jorge Campillo		37.368
Josh Geer		37.281
John Lannan		37.018
Jonathan Sanchez		36.316
Zach Duke		35.175
Brandon Backe		34.825
Andrew Miller		33.246
Pedro Martinez		30.702
Shawn Hill		28.860
Johnny Cueto		27.018
Sergio Mitre		25.175
Yusmeiro Petit		25.000
Chris Capuano		24.123
Chad Reineke		23.246
Felipe Paulino		21.404
Mike Hampton		19.561
Jo-Jo Reyes		18.596
Anibal Sanchez		18.421
Chris Carpenter		18.246
Shawn Estes		16.842
Phil Dumatrait		14.386
Collin Balester		13.684
Burke Badenhop		13.158
Jeff Karstens		12.632
Jason Schmidt		8.246
Mark Mulder		3.860
Tim Stauffer		2.368
Jason Vargas		2.368
Scott Mathieson		1.754
Mark Prior		1.754

Free Agent
Free Agent with option
Released

Since the last time I posted this group of players, Kyle Lohse has signed an extension and Jamie Moyer has ridden a 4-0 September to projected Type A status. As I've already mentioned, Moyer's status is a bit tenous. He's well within the margin of error and could actually qualify as a Type B. I'd put his chances of a type A around 90% or higher.

This is a Tigers blog afterall, so what does this all mean for the Tigers? Certainly, the Tigers will be in the market for a starting pitcher this offseason. Among the free agents on this list, Sabathia will most certainly be offered arbitration and probably be re-signed. If not, he has proven himself to be worth the second round pick. The 5-7 year commitment and 8 digit salary may be a bit of a stretch.

Ben Sheets is next on the list, but his recent elbow injury throws a wrench into things. It's doubtful he gets the contract he was looking for and may not get offered arbitration.

Oliver Perez is a shaky pitcher and probably isn't worth the second round pick if offered arbitration.

Derek Lowe hails from Michigan, so he will probably get a look. If the Dodgers offer arbitration, I don't think he'd be worth the pick. While the 3.24 ERA is nice and shiny, bear in mind he's been facing National League West opponents all year. That's over 90 innings against the Diamondbacks (10th in the NL in Runs Scored) , Giants (15th), Padres (16th), and Rockies (8th). Throw in the difference in league strength, and I could see Lowe posting an ERA north of 4.5 with the Tigers if he is signed. For the money he will likely demand, no thanks.

Jamie Moyer is another guy who isn't worth the draft pick, but could fill the Kenny Rogers role. You've gotta love the thought of a one-year commitment, especially after the Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson contract disasters.

I'll go through some of the Type B's and sleepers in the future, but the appeal of most will depend on their cost.

Final Elias Projections Preview

I'm still in the gathering stages of the final Elias Projections, verifying DL data and positional data for all players. Because the National League ended Sunday, I have a bit of a head start on players in the senior circuit and will probably be posting those first. Bear in mind when I post these that the projections I am posting are estimated. There is still a lot I need to learn about how these rankings work, so some things may be off. When I do post, position by position, I will make special care to point out possible points of error. Use these rankings as a guideline, but do not come back complaining when somebody I had on the A/B border was projected incorrectly. If they are wrong, I promise to find what was wrong and make it better next year.

Now, I've gotten a lot of questions on what exactly "reasonable certainty" means with regards to the disabled list adjustment. I found an article from 1997, detailing how Bernie Williams was ranked above Ken Griffey Jr. that year. Here's what it said.

Among 42 outfielders who qualified for consideration for 1996-97, with statistics prorated to compensate for time missed to injury, Griffey ranked first in home runs (112.41), second in RBI (307.26), 13th in batting average (.304), and 12th in on-base percentage (.387).

By comparison, Williams, who spent two stints on the DL this season, ranked 10th in home runs (58.33), but was fifth in RBI (235.67), fifth in batting average (.316), and sixth in on-base percentage (.399).

I don't want to go too far into detail, but for those who want to figure it out on your own, I will help you out. In the 1996-97 seasons, Griffey had 105 HR and 287 RBI while Williams totaled 50 HR and 202 RBI. In trying to figure out how they arrived at the adjustment, use days (not games) on the DL and look for a common numerator between the two numbers. Now, as to how bereavement, suspended, and minor league time is handled? It's hard to tell. I am looking forward to the actual rankings coming out so I can compare and perfect my model.

Finally, a big thanks to Baseball Reference. I saw the "Do you rely on B-R? How about a shout out at the end of the year?" message on the top of their page. I've relied on their data heavily for this and other projects and haven't given them the shoutout they deserve. It really is an incredible reservoir of baseball information.