Figuring out the Opening Day Rosters

Typically, I like having organizational roster projections by this point in the year. This year, however, it has been difficult to get going on these projections. A few factors are playing into this delay. First, the Tigers have so many question marks among the pitchers. While in recent years, the roles have been pretty much defined, that is not the case this year. Several pitchers are returning from injuries, ineffectiveness or both, and it is hard to project which twelve will be on the roster. Second, the free agent market has left me believe there still may be more moves to be made. However, it appears as if Brandon Lyon will be the last move to affect the Tigers at the Major League level (If Ruddy Lugo gets a call, this team is in trouble).

To start, I wanted to look at the starting pitchers in Big League camp. Rather than start with the seven who are presumed to be in competition for a starting job, I will look at every player who could be a starting pitcher this year. This is to ensure that nobody is being left behind. In alphabetical order:

Kyle Bloom: Not thought of as a starting candidate, but has been predominantly a starter in the minors. It was widely reported that he took some major steps in the right direction in 2008, and it showed in his split statistics. Bloom is a long shot, but a strong spring could land him in the bullpen. If he impresses the Tigers, they will likely do what they can to keep him on the roster this year.

Jeremy Bonderman: All of the articles on Bonderman are glowing. (Which articles this time of year aren't glowing?) If he has indeed regained his velocity, he is halfway to returning to the pitcher he was in 2006 and the first half of 2007. The other half, of course, is the command of his fastball. He needs to get ahead of the count in order to fully utilize that slider. I've got Bonderman pencilled into the rotation. This will be the case until there is some bad news in his recovery. Many pitchers have recoverred fully from his condition.

Eddie Bonine: Now on a spring invite after being sent outright to Toledo last week, Bonine is also a long shot. Of primary concern for Bonine will be ensuring that he returns from his torn lat injury without hurting himself in other ways. Two recent torn lat recoveries have not ended well. Ben Sheets tore his lat muscle in August, 2005 and got off to a slow start in 2006, missing some time with shoulder tendinitis. Also, Chad Cordero was diagnosed with a torn lat last year, but ended up with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Hopefully Bonine can recover and take some steps forward this year. If he does, he may be a more formidable emergency option over the summer.

Alfredo Figaro: Figaro is listed in the name of completeness. He's probably not a serious candidate, but he's a starting pitcher (for now) and will be in camp. During the Skelton rants, I took my fair share of shots at Figaro, so we'll keep those to a minimum now. Even for the bullpen, Figaro is a long shot at this point.

Armando Galarraga: Buster Olney, last week, said Galarraga is a candidate for the rotation. Either Olney is way ahead of the curve and realizes how lucky some of Galarraga's numbers were or he is clueless as to the role that Galarraga played on this team last year. Given some of his Baseball Tonight stints that I have seen, I'd lean toward the latter. Galarraga, despite being one of the few candidates with options, will have to blow up this spring to avoid the rotation. He's not a lock, but he's not in competition.

Count me as one who is not at all excited to see Galarraga's name on Venezuela's provisional World Baseball Classic roster. A pitcher with a history of elbow problems coming off a career high in innings needs to be under his team's care in Spring Training.

Edwin Jackson: I still believe this is a darkhorse closer candidate. This runs contrary to everything that Leyland and Dombrowski have said about him since the trade. It just seemed that a hard throwing pitcher with iffy numbers and control issues could do well in relief. If all of the candidates recover, I wouldn't rule that out. As it stands now, Jackson is slated for the rotation, and I'll have him pencilled in, ignoring my speculative side.

Jon Kibler: The Tigers' 2008 Minor League pitcher of the year was rewarded with this invite, but it's very hard to see him on the team this year. I'd imagine a strong spring would merely lead to Kibler skipping Lakeland this year.

Chris Lambert: Did not impress scouts in Toledo. Despite the fine season last year, he's got his work cut out to crack the rotation. The troubling cup of coffee with the big club is made better by a ton of unearned runs which would have made his ERA even worse with a different official scorer. I'll include Lambert with the bullpen candidates.

Zach Miner: Miner has been somewhat forgotten since the Edwin Jackson acquisition. I like Miner a lot better as a starter, but Jim Leyland disagrees. Miner is certainly a candidate, but his status probably depends on the recoveries of Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis.

Fu-Te Ni: The import from Chinese Taipai, Ni's a bit of an unknown. I include him with the starters just in case, but it seems like everything points to him heading to the pen. It will be interesting if he chooses to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic or try to make an impression on the Tigers' brass.

Ryan Perry: Included for completion. I don't think he's a candidate for the rotation. It appears as if Perry is destined for relief and could move quickly. I'll have him with the reliever candidates. A lot depends on this spring.

Rick Porcello: There's some talk that he could crack the team. I'd think a lot would have to go wrong in order for there to be a spot for him right off the bat, however.

Nate Robertson: Recovering from an off year, this is a huge spring for Robertson. I get the feeling improved defense from Curtis Granderson and the shortstop position could go a long way for him. All of the fluff pieces talk about Nate getting in shape. Hopefully that translates.

Justin Verlander: Probably the only lock* in the rotation. I'd go into a discussion about how much his numbers would have looked if he had better teammates last year, but this would take a while. It's true, though, that his offense, defense, and bullpens failed him on numerous occassions. That 11-17 4.84 line should probably look more like 17-11 3.84. Then again, if you are reading this blog, you probably know how flawed W-L ERA is when evaluating pitchers.

*When you are dealing with people throwing baseball overhand at 90+ mph, there is no such thing as a pure lock. Injuries happen.

Dontrelle Willis: The fluff pieces on Willis are in full force. I won't buy it until he can go a few Spring Training innings without a walk or wild pitch. I don't see him cracking the rotation as things stand right now. Luckily, these projections are fluid enough that we can adjust for that later in the spring.

Tentative Projections:
In alphabetical order (I hate arguments over rotation numbers. They don't matter!), here is the projected rotation as of February 9:

Jeremy Bonderman
Armando Galarraga
Edwin Jackson
Nate Robertson
Justin Verlander

Robertson's spot is probably the most tenuous. He's helped by his contract and the fact that he stunk in relief last year. This means Zach Miner is projected to be headed to the pen for the time being. As for Willis, we'll move him with the relief candidates, but he could be headed to the minor leagues. Bear in mind that my projection is that Willis will not regain his control and will not be in a position to refuse his assignment. If he pitches well this spring, he has a rotation spot.

Historical Draft Review #4 - 1998

Baseball Reference Page
Total WARP: 85.4 and Counting
General Manager: Randy Smith
Scouting Director: Greg Smith
Best Pick: Jeff Weaver, 1st Round, 55.0 WARP*
Peak Season: 2005, 13.2 WARP

First Ten Rounds plus notables:
1-14) Jeff Weaver, P, Fresno State U., 55.0 WARP*
1-34) Nate Cornejo, P, Wellington, KS, 4.1 WARP
2-14) Brandon Inge, C, Virginia Commonwealth U., 23.6 WARP*
2-30) Adam Pettyjohn, P, Fresno State U., 0.5 WARP
3-14) Tommy Marx, P, Bloomfield Hills, MI, 0 WARP
4-14) Andres Torres, OF, Miami-Dad CC, -0.7 WARP
5-14) Greg Peterson, P, St. John's U., 0 WARP
6-14) Bobby Sismondo, P, Ohio U., 2.9 WARP
7-14) Clint Smith, P, U. of Oklahoma, 0 WARP
8-14) Barry Tolli, OF, Newbury Park, CA, 0 WARP
9-14) Donny Sevieri, OF, Albuquerque, NM, 0 WARP
10-14) William Rich, OF, UConn, 0 WARP

*As of May 25, 2008

Knowing where his career has gone since leaving Detroit, it is hard to believe the choice of Jeff Weaver was enough to warrant this draft being the team's fourth best of all time. It's easy to forget Weaver was a solid starting pitcher in the front of the rotation, devastated by nonexistent run support. That he was able to do that making close to the league minimum until reaching arbitration in 2002 goes to show the true value of drafting well: cost controlled talent at their peak. Something this analysis has ignored is the actual salary of most of these player. That would be a nice study for another day.

After racking up a solid 22.9 WARP for the Tigers, Jeff Weaver was dealt to the Yankees for Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Pena, and Franklyn German. While the latter two proved to be disappointments and Bonderman has been on the verge of acehood for a couple of years now, the package has proved to be worthwhile, and this draft certainly enabled the trade to happen.

It took a while for Brandon Inge, but he finally became a solid regular 3B starting in 2004 after struggling to take control of the catcher's job. It was Willie Blair's stellar 1997 season and subsequent departure that got the Tigers two extra draft picks. Nate Cornejo provided some value to the club, but was ultimately considered a disappointment. Adam Pettyjohn's case was a bit more unfortunate. Just as he had reached the Majors, a bout with colitis zapped his strength and ended his hopes of sustaining a big league career. Andres Torres was a speed player whose hamstrings acted up in the minors, thereby taking away one of his biggest offensive weapons. Dealt to Philadelphia for mediocre reserve outfielder Wendell Magee, Bobby Sismondo gets credited with the replacement level performance from Magee.

If you are stunned that a Randy/Greg Smith draft cracked the top 5, have no fears. Here are where the rest of the Randy Smith era drafts rank out of 43 drafts:

• 26) 1996
• 27) 2001
• 30) 1997
• 31) 2000
• 39) 1999

The 1999 draft has already been passed by 2005 and 2006, and the rest will likely be passed by those two drafts sooner rather than later. The 1998 draft was a notch in Randy Smith's belt, but it was the Weaver for Bonderman trade that helped to vault it to the top of the list.

Even with Bonderman and Inge still active, this draft has a long way to go to crack the top three. Here we have the fourth best in Tigers History by my numbers, and only two players "made it." This is something to keep in mind next week when the post-draft scouting reports come out. It is important to realize that most scouting reports will give the ceiling of a player, but very only one or two players per draft will actually reach that ceiling.

Offensive Stats against Pitchers

I sometimes feel that it will be better to evaluate pitchers using the same scale we evaluate hitters. We have a much better intuition for what hitting stats actually tell you about a performance than we do pitching statistics. Here are the batting average against/on base percentage against/slugging percentage against off all of the Tigers pitchers.

Justin Verlander: .204/.314/.365
I expected this to be low. He's started off great in each of his starts. If there is one guy who has been hurt by the bullpen, this is it. Every runner he has inherited has scored, and he has been left out longer than he should have at least twice. Verlander will be fine.

Kenny Rogers: .333/.400/.483
Pretty much as you would expect, Rogers has been torched this year. There's no way around that fact. He has strugged with his control, and runners are getting on base at an alarming rate.

Jeremy Bonderman: .296/.363/.423
Hitters have been slightly better than league average against Bonderman. While I haven't delved into the pitch f/x data, it appears from watching the game that his slider doesn't quite have the effectiveness it did last season.

Nate Robertson: .304/.360/.522
The strikeouts are encouraging, the power numbers are not. Two homers and 11 extra-base hits has doomed Robertson to date. The good news is that batters are hitting .373 ontrelle balls in play against him. So long as the strikeouts stay, that number should fall.

Dontrelle Willis: .071/.435/.143
You would have known this was his line just from following the games. He threw 5+ innings of one-hit ball with a ton of walks, and then walked the first to batters of his next game. It's been pretty clear that while he has had problems finding the strike zone, players weren't making good contact against him.

Todd Jones: .217/.280/.304
The .263 BABIP is unsustainable. I would expect these numbers to rise. Knowing the Rollercoaster, it will probably happen when everything falls in for a week in late May.

Aquilino Lopez: .244/.255/.311
Guys just aren't reaching base against Lopez, who has been very effective. The importance of his 4IP relief appearance Friday night cannot be overstated.

Denny Bautista: .278/.381/.278
The walks are still there, but guys haven't really hit the ball that hard against him. Look for the batting average to drop a bit.

Bobby Seay: .231/.286/.231
While one bad outing can kill an ERA (4.91), you can see that it was a fluke from looking at the batting line. If utilized properly, Seay will be this team's best reliever.

Clay Rapada: .000/.000/.000
Hasn't allowed a base runner yet. You didn't need me to post this to calculate those stats.

Jason Grilli: .348/.500/.565
Yes, Grilli has been bad. The good news is that his BABIP is above .400. The bad news is that they are hitting the crap out of the ball and that may not come back down.

Zach Miner: .333/.472/.576
I don't ever remember Zach Miner walking this many people. During his first couple of appearances, there were some lucky breaks for the offense that led to singles. That has evolved into walks and a pounding.

Francis Beltran: .300/.417/.550
If you were wondering why he was sent out to make room for Armando Galarraga, this is why.

Yorman Bazardo: .500/.600/.786
The numbers don't lie. Bazardo was terrible and failed when all he had to do was get the team to the finish line.

Do Number 1’s face Number 1’s? – Part 2

Last time I started to take a look at the assumption by many in the sports media that pitchers often go up against those in the same rotation spot as then, thereby predicting improvement for pitchers who move from being a team's #4 to #1. I've been working on a lengthy study to test this theory, especially after hearing many analysts describe the help that Dontrelle Willis will get from not having to go up against opposing aces anymore.

Last time, I showed that the opening day order of a starting rotation will rarely be in order of that season's performance level. This is due to several reasons, including injuries, veteran preference, matchup strategies in deploying the rotation, and surprises or disappointments that a player experiences. Of the 20 teams observed, though, nine opening day starters ended up being the team's best and four more ended up being the team's second-best starting pitcher. Chances are, if you are facing a team's opening day starter, you are facing one of their better pitchers.

Next, I wanted to take a look at the assumption that teams' rotations are actually aligned over the course of a season, allowing #1 starting pitchers to regularly face #1 starters and #4 starters to regularly face #4's. I did this by looking at the Tigers' 2007 opening day rotation and the starting pitchers that they faced in each of their starts. A Number 6 starter is defined as one who didn't start

Jeremy Bonderman (Opening Day Rotation: #1)

Faced #1: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #2: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #3: 2 times (8.3%)

Faced #4: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #5: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #6: 6 times (25.0%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 3.2625

Nate Robertson (Opening Day Rotation: #2)

Faced #1: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #2: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #3: 5 times (16.1%)

Faced #4: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #5: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #6: 12 times (38.7%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 2.3129

Justin Verlander (Opening Day Rotation: #3)

Faced #1: 8 times (25.0%)

Faced #2: 2 times (6.3%)

Faced #3: 6 times (18.8%)

Faced #4: 7 times (21.9%)

Faced #5 5 times (15.6%)

Faced #6: 4 times (12.5%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.0469

Mike Maroth (Opening Day Rotation: #4)

Faced #1: 4 times (30.8%)

Faced #2: 1 time (7.7%)

Faced #3: 1 time (30.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #5: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #6: 3 times (23.1%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.9615

Chad Durbin (Opening Day Rotation: #5)

Faced #1: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #2: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #3: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #5: 4 times (21.1%)

Faced #6: 3 times (15.8%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 2.4824

As this shows, it appears to be random as to which pitcher a starting pitcher will oppose. While Jeremy Bonderman faced #1 pitchers in 20.8% of his starts, Justin Verlander and Mike Maroth both faced the opposing team's ace more often in their starts. Nate Robertson, the #2 starter, faced easily the weakest starting pitchers of anybody over the course of the year.

Several aspects lead to the randomness of pitching matchups.

-Injuries: Justin Verlander is the only Tigers pitcher to spend the entire season in the rotation. Injuries in a rotation can cause a pitcher to be moved up a day, back a day, or inserted into the rotation at the most convenient spot. With how often pitchers miss starts, it's a wonder that anybody could begin to think #1's face #1's.

-Rotation Style: The role of the fifth starter varies by manager. Many skippers will go 1-5, while several will use their fifth starter only during streaks of five or more games without an off-day. Chad Durbin's first start was pushed back to the sixth game of the season, so the #5 starter was facing the Blue Jays' #2. Different managers deploy their starters in different ways, and it is impossible to say that pitchers will be aligned based on their opening day spot in the rotation.

-Weather: All it takes is one rain-out to move a rotation up or back a day. In the case of the Mariners and Indians last April, their rotation was reset after a snowy weekend off. Postponements lead to another rotation juggler: double-headers. Spot starters come up from the minors, possibly facing that day's starter. Overall, the weather can play a large role in rotations becoming out of sync.

-The All-Star Break: The most boring three days in the baseball season also help to throw this myth into disarray. Rotations are frequently reset after the all-star break. Some team's aces go the first game after the break, while some aces are given a few days to recover from their All Star appearance. I assumed that there may be a chance that an All Star pitcher would face more aces after the break, but Justin Verlander faced just three of his eight after the All Star Break.

-The Schedule: Some teams play six games in a week; some play seven. Once again, teams' rotations get out of sync.

If teams played one game every day in domes, and pitchers never ever got hurt, you could make the case that pitchers at the bottom of a rotation have an easier time. The problem is they don't, and as such, anybody who uses a pitcher's spot in the rotation as an excuse probably doesn't know what they are talking about.

The Future of the AL Central

Major League Baseball's proverbial door-mat since its creation in 1994, the American League Central (the only division in baseball never to produce a Wild Card) suddenly has suddenly risen to the top of baseball, behind the sudden dominance of our beloved Tigers and the Chicago White Sox. Even the "struggling" Twins are firmly above the .500 mark this season.

While the state of the division is strong, the future of the division remains even stronger. The Tigers are loaded with pitching with youngsters like Verlander, Bonderman, Zumaya with Sanchez and Miller likely waiting in the wings. The White Sox have core talent that is not particularly old, and a lack of burdensome contracts that will give the improved Ken Williams flexibility in the offseasons to come. The Twins already have arguably the top two lefthanded pitchers in the game in Santana and Liriano and Matt Garza waiting in the wings. With youngsters like Morneau and Mauer already anchoring that team, they are not likely to go away any time soon. The Indians have the makings of a young team, and the Royals themselves have some star young talent.

The question is, which team is best poised for dominance in the coming years? This is a tough question that I don't have an answer to. I'd like to see what some readers think.

This is more than likely going to be baseball's best division for years to come, which will make any success the Tigers have all the more rewarding.