Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Offensive Stats against Pitchers

I sometimes feel that it will be better to evaluate pitchers using the same scale we evaluate hitters. We have a much better intuition for what hitting stats actually tell you about a performance than we do pitching statistics. Here are the batting average against/on base percentage against/slugging percentage against off all of the Tigers pitchers.

Justin Verlander: .204/.314/.365
I expected this to be low. He's started off great in each of his starts. If there is one guy who has been hurt by the bullpen, this is it. Every runner he has inherited has scored, and he has been left out longer than he should have at least twice. Verlander will be fine.

Kenny Rogers: .333/.400/.483
Pretty much as you would expect, Rogers has been torched this year. There's no way around that fact. He has strugged with his control, and runners are getting on base at an alarming rate.

Jeremy Bonderman: .296/.363/.423
Hitters have been slightly better than league average against Bonderman. While I haven't delved into the pitch f/x data, it appears from watching the game that his slider doesn't quite have the effectiveness it did last season.

Nate Robertson: .304/.360/.522
The strikeouts are encouraging, the power numbers are not. Two homers and 11 extra-base hits has doomed Robertson to date. The good news is that batters are hitting .373 ontrelle balls in play against him. So long as the strikeouts stay, that number should fall.

Dontrelle Willis: .071/.435/.143
You would have known this was his line just from following the games. He threw 5+ innings of one-hit ball with a ton of walks, and then walked the first to batters of his next game. It's been pretty clear that while he has had problems finding the strike zone, players weren't making good contact against him.

Todd Jones: .217/.280/.304
The .263 BABIP is unsustainable. I would expect these numbers to rise. Knowing the Rollercoaster, it will probably happen when everything falls in for a week in late May.

Aquilino Lopez: .244/.255/.311
Guys just aren't reaching base against Lopez, who has been very effective. The importance of his 4IP relief appearance Friday night cannot be overstated.

Denny Bautista: .278/.381/.278
The walks are still there, but guys haven't really hit the ball that hard against him. Look for the batting average to drop a bit.

Bobby Seay: .231/.286/.231
While one bad outing can kill an ERA (4.91), you can see that it was a fluke from looking at the batting line. If utilized properly, Seay will be this team's best reliever.

Clay Rapada: .000/.000/.000
Hasn't allowed a base runner yet. You didn't need me to post this to calculate those stats.

Jason Grilli: .348/.500/.565
Yes, Grilli has been bad. The good news is that his BABIP is above .400. The bad news is that they are hitting the crap out of the ball and that may not come back down.

Zach Miner: .333/.472/.576
I don't ever remember Zach Miner walking this many people. During his first couple of appearances, there were some lucky breaks for the offense that led to singles. That has evolved into walks and a pounding.

Francis Beltran: .300/.417/.550
If you were wondering why he was sent out to make room for Armando Galarraga, this is why.

Yorman Bazardo: .500/.600/.786
The numbers don't lie. Bazardo was terrible and failed when all he had to do was get the team to the finish line.

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