Brandon Inge will be the Tigers' regular third baseman next year. This is a move that is sure to improve the team's infield defense and provide some more stability at a third base position that was bound to have question marks.
Wait, wait, wait, some of you are probably asking? Don't the Tigers have an all star at third base? How will this provide more stability? The answer to that has to do with Carlos Guillen's health. Although he has missed countless games in his career for knee or hamstring injuries, the soreness in his back will prove to be a big deal. Those reading this with sore backs, bend over to field a ground ball and you will see why the Tigers chose this route. (Yes, outfielders have to field grounders as well, but they have to field less and they tend to be weakly hit).
But what about Matt Joyce? I wouldn't cry for him quite yet. This year's left fielder should get plenty of playing time despite this move. First, you have to count on Carlos Guillen to miss some time. He has played 109, 148, 149, 75, and 135 games in the field in his years as a Tiger. Even in his healthy seasons, he seems likely to miss at least 15 games for some nagging injury. Throw in the fact that he will be completing a rehab of some severe back spasms, and he's not likely to be counted on for more than 130 games next year. You have to think that this could spell the end for Gary Sheffield. Would they release him in Spring Training with 499 career homers? Root for him to reach his milestone today so he's not forced into the lineup when he doesn't deserve to be. Regardless, Sheffield is not likely to play 153 games at designated hitter next year. It will be Magglio Ordonez and Guillen who will be taking his place, meaning plenty of playing time for Matt Joyce.
The real intriguing story here is the catcher situation. This decision means one of two things: Dusty Ryan has done enough to earn the starting catching job next year or the Tigers have a trade in place for next year's catcher. Remember last season when it was announced Carlos Guillen's move to first was permanent? It seems likely to me that the Edgar Renteria deal had already been agreed upon at that point, only to be announced right after the World Series. Who could it be? Taylor Teagarden's strong September has probably left the Rangers willing to trade Gerald Laird and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Matt Wieters' emergence may have the Orioles shopping Ramon Hernandez. Those aren't great names, but they are all better than Sardinha.
As for Dusty Ryan, he has shown himself to be ready for at least a part time catching role next year. The thought of he and Inge "platooning" didn't make much sense to me, because both are much better against left-handed pitching. It seems likely that he will be teamed up with one of the many veteran catchers available this offseason. More on them later when I put up final projections for the Elias Rankings.
Showing posts with label Brandon Inge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brandon Inge. Show all posts
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Historical Draft Review #4 - 1998
Baseball Reference Page
Total WARP: 85.4 and Counting
General Manager: Randy Smith
Scouting Director: Greg Smith
Best Pick: Jeff Weaver, 1st Round, 55.0 WARP*
Peak Season: 2005, 13.2 WARP
First Ten Rounds plus notables:
1-14) Jeff Weaver, P, Fresno State U., 55.0 WARP*
1-34) Nate Cornejo, P, Wellington, KS, 4.1 WARP
2-14) Brandon Inge, C, Virginia Commonwealth U., 23.6 WARP*
2-30) Adam Pettyjohn, P, Fresno State U., 0.5 WARP
3-14) Tommy Marx, P, Bloomfield Hills, MI, 0 WARP
4-14) Andres Torres, OF, Miami-Dad CC, -0.7 WARP
5-14) Greg Peterson, P, St. John's U., 0 WARP
6-14) Bobby Sismondo, P, Ohio U., 2.9 WARP
7-14) Clint Smith, P, U. of Oklahoma, 0 WARP
8-14) Barry Tolli, OF, Newbury Park, CA, 0 WARP
9-14) Donny Sevieri, OF, Albuquerque, NM, 0 WARP
10-14) William Rich, OF, UConn, 0 WARP
*As of May 25, 2008
Knowing where his career has gone since leaving Detroit, it is hard to believe the choice of Jeff Weaver was enough to warrant this draft being the team's fourth best of all time. It's easy to forget Weaver was a solid starting pitcher in the front of the rotation, devastated by nonexistent run support. That he was able to do that making close to the league minimum until reaching arbitration in 2002 goes to show the true value of drafting well: cost controlled talent at their peak. Something this analysis has ignored is the actual salary of most of these player. That would be a nice study for another day.
After racking up a solid 22.9 WARP for the Tigers, Jeff Weaver was dealt to the Yankees for Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Pena, and Franklyn German. While the latter two proved to be disappointments and Bonderman has been on the verge of acehood for a couple of years now, the package has proved to be worthwhile, and this draft certainly enabled the trade to happen.
It took a while for Brandon Inge, but he finally became a solid regular 3B starting in 2004 after struggling to take control of the catcher's job. It was Willie Blair's stellar 1997 season and subsequent departure that got the Tigers two extra draft picks. Nate Cornejo provided some value to the club, but was ultimately considered a disappointment. Adam Pettyjohn's case was a bit more unfortunate. Just as he had reached the Majors, a bout with colitis zapped his strength and ended his hopes of sustaining a big league career. Andres Torres was a speed player whose hamstrings acted up in the minors, thereby taking away one of his biggest offensive weapons. Dealt to Philadelphia for mediocre reserve outfielder Wendell Magee, Bobby Sismondo gets credited with the replacement level performance from Magee.
If you are stunned that a Randy/Greg Smith draft cracked the top 5, have no fears. Here are where the rest of the Randy Smith era drafts rank out of 43 drafts:
Total WARP: 85.4 and Counting
General Manager: Randy Smith
Scouting Director: Greg Smith
Best Pick: Jeff Weaver, 1st Round, 55.0 WARP*
Peak Season: 2005, 13.2 WARP
First Ten Rounds plus notables:
1-14) Jeff Weaver, P, Fresno State U., 55.0 WARP*
1-34) Nate Cornejo, P, Wellington, KS, 4.1 WARP
2-14) Brandon Inge, C, Virginia Commonwealth U., 23.6 WARP*
2-30) Adam Pettyjohn, P, Fresno State U., 0.5 WARP
3-14) Tommy Marx, P, Bloomfield Hills, MI, 0 WARP
4-14) Andres Torres, OF, Miami-Dad CC, -0.7 WARP
5-14) Greg Peterson, P, St. John's U., 0 WARP
6-14) Bobby Sismondo, P, Ohio U., 2.9 WARP
7-14) Clint Smith, P, U. of Oklahoma, 0 WARP
8-14) Barry Tolli, OF, Newbury Park, CA, 0 WARP
9-14) Donny Sevieri, OF, Albuquerque, NM, 0 WARP
10-14) William Rich, OF, UConn, 0 WARP
*As of May 25, 2008
Knowing where his career has gone since leaving Detroit, it is hard to believe the choice of Jeff Weaver was enough to warrant this draft being the team's fourth best of all time. It's easy to forget Weaver was a solid starting pitcher in the front of the rotation, devastated by nonexistent run support. That he was able to do that making close to the league minimum until reaching arbitration in 2002 goes to show the true value of drafting well: cost controlled talent at their peak. Something this analysis has ignored is the actual salary of most of these player. That would be a nice study for another day.
After racking up a solid 22.9 WARP for the Tigers, Jeff Weaver was dealt to the Yankees for Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Pena, and Franklyn German. While the latter two proved to be disappointments and Bonderman has been on the verge of acehood for a couple of years now, the package has proved to be worthwhile, and this draft certainly enabled the trade to happen.
It took a while for Brandon Inge, but he finally became a solid regular 3B starting in 2004 after struggling to take control of the catcher's job. It was Willie Blair's stellar 1997 season and subsequent departure that got the Tigers two extra draft picks. Nate Cornejo provided some value to the club, but was ultimately considered a disappointment. Adam Pettyjohn's case was a bit more unfortunate. Just as he had reached the Majors, a bout with colitis zapped his strength and ended his hopes of sustaining a big league career. Andres Torres was a speed player whose hamstrings acted up in the minors, thereby taking away one of his biggest offensive weapons. Dealt to Philadelphia for mediocre reserve outfielder Wendell Magee, Bobby Sismondo gets credited with the replacement level performance from Magee.
If you are stunned that a Randy/Greg Smith draft cracked the top 5, have no fears. Here are where the rest of the Randy Smith era drafts rank out of 43 drafts:
- 26) 1996
- 27) 2001
- 30) 1997
- 31) 2000
- 39) 1999
The 1999 draft has already been passed by 2005 and 2006, and the rest will likely be passed by those two drafts sooner rather than later. The 1998 draft was a notch in Randy Smith's belt, but it was the Weaver for Bonderman trade that helped to vault it to the top of the list.
Even with Bonderman and Inge still active, this draft has a long way to go to crack the top three. Here we have the fourth best in Tigers History by my numbers, and only two players "made it." This is something to keep in mind next week when the post-draft scouting reports come out. It is important to realize that most scouting reports will give the ceiling of a player, but very only one or two players per draft will actually reach that ceiling.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Removing the Jacque Strap
Jacque Jones has been designated for assignment. Matt Joyce has been called up to replace him. It's interesting to me that Joyce gets the call instead of Thomas, who faired well in his time with the big club.
Joyce bats left-handed, and plays a strong defense anywhere in the outfield. Like Clete Thomas, he has a tremendous arm, but he's a different type of hitter. While Thomas is more of a spray hitter, Joyce has hit for power in his career. He's off to a fast start in Toledo, hitting .299/.367/.536.
I'm not sure how the left field situation will shake out. I'd still like to see Raburn get a lion's share of the playing time, but they probably didn't bring Joyce up to ride pine. There will likely be some sort of time share between Raburn, Joyce, Marcus Thames, and Brandon Inge for the time being. Regardless, it's a step up from the punch-less Jones.
Okay, now it seems as if Gary Sheffield is playing left field at his own request to get his bat going. That seems like a shock, especially without the corresponding move of Carlos Guillen to designated hitter. I'll let some time go by to pass judgement, but it's a peculiar move to say the least.
Joyce bats left-handed, and plays a strong defense anywhere in the outfield. Like Clete Thomas, he has a tremendous arm, but he's a different type of hitter. While Thomas is more of a spray hitter, Joyce has hit for power in his career. He's off to a fast start in Toledo, hitting .299/.367/.536.
I'm not sure how the left field situation will shake out. I'd still like to see Raburn get a lion's share of the playing time, but they probably didn't bring Joyce up to ride pine. There will likely be some sort of time share between Raburn, Joyce, Marcus Thames, and Brandon Inge for the time being. Regardless, it's a step up from the punch-less Jones.
Okay, now it seems as if Gary Sheffield is playing left field at his own request to get his bat going. That seems like a shock, especially without the corresponding move of Carlos Guillen to designated hitter. I'll let some time go by to pass judgement, but it's a peculiar move to say the least.
One Man's Drastic Changes
Much has been made over the drastic changes to the lineup that will be debuted tonight. I'm not convinced that changes to the lineup are the answer any more than I am that a team can get away with one lineup. I have two sets of three lineups to use. One set of lineups for right-handed opponents, one set for left-handed opponents. One lineup is the "everyday" lineup, and the other two account for days off by Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Those two should each be seeing at least one off day every week.
vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.
vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B
vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C
vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF
It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.
vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF
If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.
vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF
Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.
I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.
vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.
vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B
vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C
vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF
It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.
vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF
If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.
vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF
Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.
I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Time for the Jacque Jones Era to End
I really did not like the Jacque Jones acquisition at the time it was made. Sure, Omar Infante wasn't that big of a loss, and the Cubs were covering the salary difference, so it was worth a shot. After a while, I bought into the fact that Jones played a really good outfield last year. My main beef at the time wasn't with the trade or Jones' defense, he really isn't any better than the internal alternatives: Ryan Raburn, Marcus Thames, and the now displaced Brandon Inge. The misplay on the line-drive double in the 7th inning was the final straw to me. While I'm not one to tolerate a poor offensive performance, it can be justified with a great defensive performance. Jones has been inferior in the field to every one of his positional competitors this year, even Marcus Thames.
It was an open debate as to whether Jacque Jones' bat was in decline last season or if it was merely a one year slump. At age 32, either could have been true. The biggest decline from 2006 to 2007 was his power. He fell from 27 home runs to a meager five in 2007. His isolated power dropped from an acceptable .214 to a ghastly .115. It was worth seeing if his bad could rebound (it hasn't), especially if he can play better defense than his alternatives (he hasn't). When you have a career OBP of just .327 and you are playing a power spot, you need either your power or your defense to keep you in the lineup. The fact that a superior hitter in Ryan Raburn is coming in as a defensive replacement is a paradox to say the least.
The Tigers are on the hook for $3-million dollars. It's getting to the point where they have to decide if that money is best spent giving Jacque Jones and his .522 OPS time to straighten out an offensive game that may not exist, or if they should cut bait and go to a time share between superior options in Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, and especially Ryan Raburn. If the concern is to have a left-handed bat in the lineup, here are the batting lines for all of the candidates against right-handed pitchers the past two seasons:
'07
Raburn 84 PA, .338/.349/.563
Jones 375 PA, .283/.332/.397
Thames 193 PA, .209/.249/.456
Inge 447 PA, .209/.281/.340
'08
Raburn 22 PA, .278/.409/.556
Jones 82 PA, .183/.268/.282
Thames 27 PA, .240/.296/.240
Inge 85 PA, .265/.381/.471
Ryan Raburn's numbers stand out, while Inge and Thames have had problems hitting right-handed pitchers in their careers. While the sample size issues apply, it's not like Raburn was struggling against right-handed pitchers in the minors. It's pretty clear that Jacque Jones is in the lineup because he bats from the left side, but his raises a question over the point of having a left-handed bat in the lineup. If the reason is to have somebody who hits from the left side, Jones is your guy. If the motive is to have somebody who can do damage against right-handed pitchers, it's probably best to finally give the every day job to the guy who is long overdue for the opportunity. Raburn has done everything in his power to have earned the starting left field job over the past year. It's high time he gets what he deserves.
Free Ryan Raburn!
It was an open debate as to whether Jacque Jones' bat was in decline last season or if it was merely a one year slump. At age 32, either could have been true. The biggest decline from 2006 to 2007 was his power. He fell from 27 home runs to a meager five in 2007. His isolated power dropped from an acceptable .214 to a ghastly .115. It was worth seeing if his bad could rebound (it hasn't), especially if he can play better defense than his alternatives (he hasn't). When you have a career OBP of just .327 and you are playing a power spot, you need either your power or your defense to keep you in the lineup. The fact that a superior hitter in Ryan Raburn is coming in as a defensive replacement is a paradox to say the least.
The Tigers are on the hook for $3-million dollars. It's getting to the point where they have to decide if that money is best spent giving Jacque Jones and his .522 OPS time to straighten out an offensive game that may not exist, or if they should cut bait and go to a time share between superior options in Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, and especially Ryan Raburn. If the concern is to have a left-handed bat in the lineup, here are the batting lines for all of the candidates against right-handed pitchers the past two seasons:
'07
Raburn 84 PA, .338/.349/.563
Jones 375 PA, .283/.332/.397
Thames 193 PA, .209/.249/.456
Inge 447 PA, .209/.281/.340
'08
Raburn 22 PA, .278/.409/.556
Jones 82 PA, .183/.268/.282
Thames 27 PA, .240/.296/.240
Inge 85 PA, .265/.381/.471
Ryan Raburn's numbers stand out, while Inge and Thames have had problems hitting right-handed pitchers in their careers. While the sample size issues apply, it's not like Raburn was struggling against right-handed pitchers in the minors. It's pretty clear that Jacque Jones is in the lineup because he bats from the left side, but his raises a question over the point of having a left-handed bat in the lineup. If the reason is to have somebody who hits from the left side, Jones is your guy. If the motive is to have somebody who can do damage against right-handed pitchers, it's probably best to finally give the every day job to the guy who is long overdue for the opportunity. Raburn has done everything in his power to have earned the starting left field job over the past year. It's high time he gets what he deserves.
Free Ryan Raburn!
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