Figuring out the Opening Day Rosters

Typically, I like having organizational roster projections by this point in the year. This year, however, it has been difficult to get going on these projections. A few factors are playing into this delay. First, the Tigers have so many question marks among the pitchers. While in recent years, the roles have been pretty much defined, that is not the case this year. Several pitchers are returning from injuries, ineffectiveness or both, and it is hard to project which twelve will be on the roster. Second, the free agent market has left me believe there still may be more moves to be made. However, it appears as if Brandon Lyon will be the last move to affect the Tigers at the Major League level (If Ruddy Lugo gets a call, this team is in trouble).

To start, I wanted to look at the starting pitchers in Big League camp. Rather than start with the seven who are presumed to be in competition for a starting job, I will look at every player who could be a starting pitcher this year. This is to ensure that nobody is being left behind. In alphabetical order:

Kyle Bloom: Not thought of as a starting candidate, but has been predominantly a starter in the minors. It was widely reported that he took some major steps in the right direction in 2008, and it showed in his split statistics. Bloom is a long shot, but a strong spring could land him in the bullpen. If he impresses the Tigers, they will likely do what they can to keep him on the roster this year.

Jeremy Bonderman: All of the articles on Bonderman are glowing. (Which articles this time of year aren't glowing?) If he has indeed regained his velocity, he is halfway to returning to the pitcher he was in 2006 and the first half of 2007. The other half, of course, is the command of his fastball. He needs to get ahead of the count in order to fully utilize that slider. I've got Bonderman pencilled into the rotation. This will be the case until there is some bad news in his recovery. Many pitchers have recoverred fully from his condition.

Eddie Bonine: Now on a spring invite after being sent outright to Toledo last week, Bonine is also a long shot. Of primary concern for Bonine will be ensuring that he returns from his torn lat injury without hurting himself in other ways. Two recent torn lat recoveries have not ended well. Ben Sheets tore his lat muscle in August, 2005 and got off to a slow start in 2006, missing some time with shoulder tendinitis. Also, Chad Cordero was diagnosed with a torn lat last year, but ended up with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Hopefully Bonine can recover and take some steps forward this year. If he does, he may be a more formidable emergency option over the summer.

Alfredo Figaro: Figaro is listed in the name of completeness. He's probably not a serious candidate, but he's a starting pitcher (for now) and will be in camp. During the Skelton rants, I took my fair share of shots at Figaro, so we'll keep those to a minimum now. Even for the bullpen, Figaro is a long shot at this point.

Armando Galarraga: Buster Olney, last week, said Galarraga is a candidate for the rotation. Either Olney is way ahead of the curve and realizes how lucky some of Galarraga's numbers were or he is clueless as to the role that Galarraga played on this team last year. Given some of his Baseball Tonight stints that I have seen, I'd lean toward the latter. Galarraga, despite being one of the few candidates with options, will have to blow up this spring to avoid the rotation. He's not a lock, but he's not in competition.

Count me as one who is not at all excited to see Galarraga's name on Venezuela's provisional World Baseball Classic roster. A pitcher with a history of elbow problems coming off a career high in innings needs to be under his team's care in Spring Training.

Edwin Jackson: I still believe this is a darkhorse closer candidate. This runs contrary to everything that Leyland and Dombrowski have said about him since the trade. It just seemed that a hard throwing pitcher with iffy numbers and control issues could do well in relief. If all of the candidates recover, I wouldn't rule that out. As it stands now, Jackson is slated for the rotation, and I'll have him pencilled in, ignoring my speculative side.

Jon Kibler: The Tigers' 2008 Minor League pitcher of the year was rewarded with this invite, but it's very hard to see him on the team this year. I'd imagine a strong spring would merely lead to Kibler skipping Lakeland this year.

Chris Lambert: Did not impress scouts in Toledo. Despite the fine season last year, he's got his work cut out to crack the rotation. The troubling cup of coffee with the big club is made better by a ton of unearned runs which would have made his ERA even worse with a different official scorer. I'll include Lambert with the bullpen candidates.

Zach Miner: Miner has been somewhat forgotten since the Edwin Jackson acquisition. I like Miner a lot better as a starter, but Jim Leyland disagrees. Miner is certainly a candidate, but his status probably depends on the recoveries of Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis.

Fu-Te Ni: The import from Chinese Taipai, Ni's a bit of an unknown. I include him with the starters just in case, but it seems like everything points to him heading to the pen. It will be interesting if he chooses to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic or try to make an impression on the Tigers' brass.

Ryan Perry: Included for completion. I don't think he's a candidate for the rotation. It appears as if Perry is destined for relief and could move quickly. I'll have him with the reliever candidates. A lot depends on this spring.

Rick Porcello: There's some talk that he could crack the team. I'd think a lot would have to go wrong in order for there to be a spot for him right off the bat, however.

Nate Robertson: Recovering from an off year, this is a huge spring for Robertson. I get the feeling improved defense from Curtis Granderson and the shortstop position could go a long way for him. All of the fluff pieces talk about Nate getting in shape. Hopefully that translates.

Justin Verlander: Probably the only lock* in the rotation. I'd go into a discussion about how much his numbers would have looked if he had better teammates last year, but this would take a while. It's true, though, that his offense, defense, and bullpens failed him on numerous occassions. That 11-17 4.84 line should probably look more like 17-11 3.84. Then again, if you are reading this blog, you probably know how flawed W-L ERA is when evaluating pitchers.

*When you are dealing with people throwing baseball overhand at 90+ mph, there is no such thing as a pure lock. Injuries happen.

Dontrelle Willis: The fluff pieces on Willis are in full force. I won't buy it until he can go a few Spring Training innings without a walk or wild pitch. I don't see him cracking the rotation as things stand right now. Luckily, these projections are fluid enough that we can adjust for that later in the spring.

Tentative Projections:
In alphabetical order (I hate arguments over rotation numbers. They don't matter!), here is the projected rotation as of February 9:

Jeremy Bonderman
Armando Galarraga
Edwin Jackson
Nate Robertson
Justin Verlander

Robertson's spot is probably the most tenuous. He's helped by his contract and the fact that he stunk in relief last year. This means Zach Miner is projected to be headed to the pen for the time being. As for Willis, we'll move him with the relief candidates, but he could be headed to the minor leagues. Bear in mind that my projection is that Willis will not regain his control and will not be in a position to refuse his assignment. If he pitches well this spring, he has a rotation spot.

The True Cost of a High Payroll

A common response to a big contract's criticism usually goes something like this: "It's not your money." This is true. The owner is the one giving out the big contracts, and it is his money. Even in these times when baseball is swimming in money and owners can afford pretty much any contract, there is a cost to an expensive team. This is no more evident than it is with the Detroit Tigers right now.

Not only do you have to pay players several million dollars, players with large contracts are also veterans who cannot be sent to the minor leagues. A team is required to be patient with these players while young, cheap players can be sent out when they are struggling. When marginal players get big time deals, you lose roster flexibility.

Take the case of Gary Sheffield. He's now hitting below .200 without much power to speak of at all, as a designated hitter. Even though he's had shoulder and finger problems, because he is an expensive veteran, he apparently has the authority to stay off of the disabled list? Sheffield is, in my opinion, a Hall of Famer. Over the past 20 years, he has been one of the best players in the game and an underrated performer across the board. The simple fact is that he is not getting the job done right now. While this would normally be acceptable; Mike Hessman, Jeff Larish, Michael Hollimon, and others would probably be outperforming him right now. Toledo's roster is simply overflowing with offensive firepower right now.

How about Armando Galarraga? He's been the best pitcher in the Tigers' rotation this season. For all of the critcism that has been unfairly lumped on him for not being able to go deep into games, he still owns 31% of the team's quality starts, and is the only Tigers starter giving up less than an earned run every two innings. Now, he's the one leaving the rotation and presumably the team to make room for the supposedly healthy Dontrelle Willis. Why is Galarraga on his way out? A rotation full of expensive veterans can't be broken up, regardless of whether or not they deserve it.

Just remember the next time you say "It's not my money." It is your team, and your team suffers when potentially poor veterans are signed to large deals.

Another One Bites the Dust

Virgil Vasquez was placed on Toledo's disabled list with right shoulder tendinitis. This could be minor, but it's yet another injury that has struck a reserve starting pitcher. Vasquez has struggled in his past few starts, so something may have been up. Thank God for the emergence of Armando Galarraga. It also looks like Yorman Bazardo will be taking the spot of Vasquez. Hopefully, he can re-emerge in a starting role.

Curtis Granderson is in tonight's lineup. To make room, Clete Thomas was optioned out. Could Jacque Jones have saved his job by finally hitting for some power last night? Thomas did surprisingly well in his time up with the club, but Granderson is clearly a significant improvement, and could be a big spark plug for a team that still could use one.

That Felt Good

The excuses can finally stop. The Tigers are officially alive. Thanks to an offensive onslaught and a masterful Tigers' debut from Armando Galarraga, the Tigers dominated Cleveland yesterday 13-1. Detroit and Cleveland are now tied at 5-10. If you still believe this to be a two-team race, then the teams are tied. I'm becoming more and more convinced that Chicago will be a real threat in this things, but if the mission was to make up lost ground on the Indians, mission accomplished.

If Sabathia, Carmona, and the bullpen keep it up, remember this team the next time somebody tells you a team can win because of their pitching. A pitching staff is simply too unpredictable, even one coming off of a great season, especially bullpens. Cleveland, Seattle, and Toronto are all teams who had people claiming their great bullpen to be the key to their eventual success this year, and all three have had massive bullpen problems.

Watch out for Cale Iorg, who is smoking the ball in Lakeland. 2006 3rd rounder Brennan Boesch, on the other hand, has continued to showcase why doubts were raised about him last season.

James Andrews could not find anything wrong with Fernando Rodney's shoulder. It looks like more rehabbing until he's ready.

Transactions Roundup

It's been a long week, and I wanted to get caught up on the transactions I missed.


Tony Giarratano Released
A setback in his rehab was reported last month, and the feable Tony Giarratano era came to a screaching halt with his release last week. It became clear that he was never going to be able to stay healthy enough to play shortstop for the Tigers. The ultimate result of this transaction is a free roster spot, and the team's medical resources are able to be focused on players who have played since 2006.


Curtis Granderson Signs Extension
5 years/30.25 Million with an option year is an absolute steal. I had Granderson making 26 million through arbitration leading up to free agency. Yes, this deal only buys out one or two free agency years, but somebody of Granderson's on and off-field value is worth much more than this.

Acquired Armando Galarraga from Texas for Mike Hernandez
Undoubtedly, this will be bemoaned by minor league hounds, who grow attached and overrate anybody in the Tigers minor league system (see Bierd, Randor). This is still a solid trade. Galarraga had been designated for assigment by Texas last week, similar to Yorman Bazardo last year. Already 26, Galarraga missed much of 2002 and 2003 recovering from Tommy John Surgery and had further elbow problems in 2006, delaying his arrival. With one option year left, Galarraga will probably be in Toledo's rotation this year. I think this is a fine pickup, given his career strikeout rates.

Mike Hernandez is a fine story, picked out of a tryout camp a year after finishing college, he got off to a great start in both 2006 and 2007, but cooled off significantly. We are still talking about a 24-year old restricted to first-base with a career .320 minor league OBP. This is not a big loss.