Historical Draft Review #4 - 1998

Baseball Reference Page
Total WARP: 85.4 and Counting
General Manager: Randy Smith
Scouting Director: Greg Smith
Best Pick: Jeff Weaver, 1st Round, 55.0 WARP*
Peak Season: 2005, 13.2 WARP

First Ten Rounds plus notables:
1-14) Jeff Weaver, P, Fresno State U., 55.0 WARP*
1-34) Nate Cornejo, P, Wellington, KS, 4.1 WARP
2-14) Brandon Inge, C, Virginia Commonwealth U., 23.6 WARP*
2-30) Adam Pettyjohn, P, Fresno State U., 0.5 WARP
3-14) Tommy Marx, P, Bloomfield Hills, MI, 0 WARP
4-14) Andres Torres, OF, Miami-Dad CC, -0.7 WARP
5-14) Greg Peterson, P, St. John's U., 0 WARP
6-14) Bobby Sismondo, P, Ohio U., 2.9 WARP
7-14) Clint Smith, P, U. of Oklahoma, 0 WARP
8-14) Barry Tolli, OF, Newbury Park, CA, 0 WARP
9-14) Donny Sevieri, OF, Albuquerque, NM, 0 WARP
10-14) William Rich, OF, UConn, 0 WARP

*As of May 25, 2008

Knowing where his career has gone since leaving Detroit, it is hard to believe the choice of Jeff Weaver was enough to warrant this draft being the team's fourth best of all time. It's easy to forget Weaver was a solid starting pitcher in the front of the rotation, devastated by nonexistent run support. That he was able to do that making close to the league minimum until reaching arbitration in 2002 goes to show the true value of drafting well: cost controlled talent at their peak. Something this analysis has ignored is the actual salary of most of these player. That would be a nice study for another day.

After racking up a solid 22.9 WARP for the Tigers, Jeff Weaver was dealt to the Yankees for Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Pena, and Franklyn German. While the latter two proved to be disappointments and Bonderman has been on the verge of acehood for a couple of years now, the package has proved to be worthwhile, and this draft certainly enabled the trade to happen.

It took a while for Brandon Inge, but he finally became a solid regular 3B starting in 2004 after struggling to take control of the catcher's job. It was Willie Blair's stellar 1997 season and subsequent departure that got the Tigers two extra draft picks. Nate Cornejo provided some value to the club, but was ultimately considered a disappointment. Adam Pettyjohn's case was a bit more unfortunate. Just as he had reached the Majors, a bout with colitis zapped his strength and ended his hopes of sustaining a big league career. Andres Torres was a speed player whose hamstrings acted up in the minors, thereby taking away one of his biggest offensive weapons. Dealt to Philadelphia for mediocre reserve outfielder Wendell Magee, Bobby Sismondo gets credited with the replacement level performance from Magee.

If you are stunned that a Randy/Greg Smith draft cracked the top 5, have no fears. Here are where the rest of the Randy Smith era drafts rank out of 43 drafts:

• 26) 1996
• 27) 2001
• 30) 1997
• 31) 2000
• 39) 1999

The 1999 draft has already been passed by 2005 and 2006, and the rest will likely be passed by those two drafts sooner rather than later. The 1998 draft was a notch in Randy Smith's belt, but it was the Weaver for Bonderman trade that helped to vault it to the top of the list.

Even with Bonderman and Inge still active, this draft has a long way to go to crack the top three. Here we have the fourth best in Tigers History by my numbers, and only two players "made it." This is something to keep in mind next week when the post-draft scouting reports come out. It is important to realize that most scouting reports will give the ceiling of a player, but very only one or two players per draft will actually reach that ceiling.

Historical Draft Review #5 - 1987

Baseball Reference Page
Total WARP: 54.7
General Manager: Bill LaJoie
Scouting Director: Bill Schudlich
Best Pick: Travis Fryman, 1st (Supp.) Round, 44.2 WARP
Peak Season: 1992, 11.0 WARP

First Ten Rounds plus notables:
1-20) Bill Henderson, C, Westminster College, 0 WARP
1-21) Steve Pegues, OF, Pontonoc, MS, 0 WARP
1-30) Travis Fryman, SS, Pensacola, FL, 44.2 WARP
2-21) Rob Richie, OF, U. Nevada, 0.2 WARP
3-21) Jim Hayes, P, Topeka, KS, 0 WARP
4-21) Ricardo Ingram, OF, Georgia Tech, -0.1 WARP
5-21) Torey Lovullo, 2B, UCLA, 8.3 WARP
6-21) Dean DeCillis, IF, Miami Dade CC, 0 WARP
7-21) Chris Harley, 3B, Baltimore, MD, 0 WARP
8-21) Derek Lee, IF, U. South Florida, Unsigned
9-21) Blaine Rudolph, P, Fresno CC, 0 WARP
10-21) Robert Shipman, P, Winter Haven, FL, 0 WARP
17-21) Mike Wilkins, Lamar U., 1.7 WARP
21-21) Mike Schwabe, Arizona State, 0 WARP
33-21) Rusty Meachem, Indian River CC, 0.4 WARP

The Tigers got two extra picks in return for losing Lance Parrish, and put one of them to good use. Without Travis Fryman this draft is a complete bust. Fryman was a superb player in his time with the Tigers, but obviously most of his performance went to waste in what was a poor era for the Tigers. He was dealt to Arizona in a deal for Joe Randa, Gabe Alvarez, and Matt Drews. All three bombed with the Tigers, but Randa was dealt for Willie Blair. These players all provided minimal value to the Tigers, but still count towards Fryman's total. Bill Henderson, the other compensation pick, was a flop.

Rob Richie, the second round pick, seemed to be on the brink of making it big before retiring abruptly in the Spring of 1990. All I can gather from an internet search is that, as a Jehovah's Witness, he retired to become a probation officer back in Mississippi. This was slightly before my time, and I had not heard this story before. How good was he? Would he have been a regular Tigers' outfielder? Does anybody remember him?

Torey Lovullo was one of Sparky's favorites, but was ultimately a bust with the Tigers. He was dealt to the Yankees for Mark Leiter, who provided some solid swing-man innings in the early 90's. If you haven't heard of Mike Wilkins, it's because he never made it to the big leagues. He was dealt for Mike Munoz, a Tigers' LOOGY from 1990-1992. Would you believe that Rusty Meachem's career lasted until 2001?

It's probably pretty hard to believe that this was the Tigers' fifth best draft of all time. Basically, the success of Travis Fryman is what vaulted it to the top of the list. In fairness, there were drafts that came in at 52.3 and 51.8, so it just barely cracked the top 5. This just goes to show that if a draft can produce one star player, it did it's job.

Historical Draft Review - Introduction

The June Draft is now nine days away, and a lot of the focus is towards the future. Who will the Tigers get with the 21st pick? Will they once again go well over slot to get premier talents in the draft? Will they draft a catcher in the high rounds to fill a pressing organizational need? Which late round picks have bargain potential? As compelling as those questions are, I don't have the answers. Instead, I was prompted by some of the premature hype around last year's draft to try and find the Tigers' best draft ever. In the process, I wanted to find out the benchmark of a succesful draft. I wanted to figure out when it is safe to start evaluating the results of a draft. Most importantly, I wanted to find out more about the history of the draft and rank every one of the Tigers' drafts based on the results the draft produced.

Before going into the methodology, I wanted to look at the history of the MLB First Year Player Draft. Started in 1965, the draft replaced the largely unsuccesful Bonus Rule. The Bonus Rule, in place from 1947 to 1965 to prevent teams like the Yankees from loading up on talent, stated that any player signed to at least a $4,000 contract needed to be on the 40-man roster their first two professional seasons. This explains why players like Al Kaline went straight to the Major Leagues. Anytime anybody points to players like Kaline who didn't play in the Minor Leagues as justification for rushing another player, kindly tell them that the rules in place between 1947 and 1965 made it difficult to send top prospects to the minor leagues. Also, if the person complains that players are signed for too much money these days, you cand also kindly point out that this was always the case and is the reason that players like Kaline went straight to the Majors. Before the Bonus Rule, there was essentially a free for all, similar to the international market today. If you found a player and could sign him, he was yours. The draft was implemented to give everybody a shot at all players after the Bonus Rule proved futile.

The MLB Draft wasn't always as it is today. During the first two years, there were three drafts held. The June Draft has always been held, but there was the August Draft for players who played in Summer Leagues, and the January Draft for winter graduates. The August Draft was abandoned after 1966. For the next several seasons, there were four phases of the draft: the regular phase of both the June and January Drafts, and a secondary phase for players who had already been drafted by a team but were not signed. Finally in 1986, the other phases of the draft were done away with, leaving only the regular phase of the June Draft, which was shortened to 50 rounds in 1998.

When starting this project, I was unaware of the numerous phases of the draft before 1986. It created somewhat of a dilemma. Should I ignore everything except the regular phase of the June Drafts? If I don't, toward which draft will the January phases count? At first, I ignored all phases except for the regular phase of the June Draft. Upon doing this, I noticed that drafts since 1986 tended to rank much better than drafts before. This made sense, as I was ignoring several eligible players who had been drafted by the Tigers and would have been otherwise drafted in June. To remove that bias, I decided to include all drafts, counting the January Draft with the same year's June Draft.

I rated the drafts using a system similar to the Trade Reviews I did earlier.

• I used WARP1 from BaseballProspectus for each player. It was either WARP1 or Win Shares, and I have access to everybody's WARP1 totals.
• Only players signed in the draft count toward the draft. If a player was drafted multiple times by the Tigers, he counts toward the draft in which he was signed.
• Players are credited only for their time with the Tigers, and I stop totaling their numbers the moment they are traded, released, declare free agency, lost on waivers, or taken in the Rule 5 or Expansion Drafts. If a player is a free agent and re-signs with the Tigers, I am assuming that the player could have signed anywhere during that time and any value he provides is not a result of his draft selection.
• If a player is traded, the players recieved in return count towards his draft pick. The same goes for free agents who net compensation.
• A player traded as part of a package only accumulate a percentage of the value of the players recieved. This percentage is based on the value the player provided the team they were traded to compared to the rest of the package. Player who had a WARP of 0 or less for the opposing team will have a percentage of 0 unless the rest of the players also had a WARP of 0 or less. In this case, the players each have an equal percentage. I came across two trades which aren't final, and I assigned estimated percentages to each player. Humberto Sanchez (50), Kevin Whelan (25), and Anthony Claggett (25) each will be credited with Gary Sheffield's production. Cameron Maybin (35), Andrew Miller (33), Burke Badenhop (8), Dallas Trahern (8), Mike Rabelo (8), and Eulogio De La Cruz (8) each will split Miguel Cabera and Dontrelle Willis' production. This will be easy to modify once the results of these trades start to become clear.
• I did not count the production of free agents who cost draft picks.

I will post the results in the coming days leading up to the draft. Here are some of the results I plan to cover.

• What is the result of a succesful draft?
• When can a draft be fairly evaluated?
• Best Tigers Drafts: #5
• Best Tigers Drafts: #4
• Best Tigers Drafts: #3
• Best Tigers Drafts: #2
• The Best Tigers Draft Ever