Figuring out the Opening Day Rosters

Typically, I like having organizational roster projections by this point in the year. This year, however, it has been difficult to get going on these projections. A few factors are playing into this delay. First, the Tigers have so many question marks among the pitchers. While in recent years, the roles have been pretty much defined, that is not the case this year. Several pitchers are returning from injuries, ineffectiveness or both, and it is hard to project which twelve will be on the roster. Second, the free agent market has left me believe there still may be more moves to be made. However, it appears as if Brandon Lyon will be the last move to affect the Tigers at the Major League level (If Ruddy Lugo gets a call, this team is in trouble).

To start, I wanted to look at the starting pitchers in Big League camp. Rather than start with the seven who are presumed to be in competition for a starting job, I will look at every player who could be a starting pitcher this year. This is to ensure that nobody is being left behind. In alphabetical order:

Kyle Bloom: Not thought of as a starting candidate, but has been predominantly a starter in the minors. It was widely reported that he took some major steps in the right direction in 2008, and it showed in his split statistics. Bloom is a long shot, but a strong spring could land him in the bullpen. If he impresses the Tigers, they will likely do what they can to keep him on the roster this year.

Jeremy Bonderman: All of the articles on Bonderman are glowing. (Which articles this time of year aren't glowing?) If he has indeed regained his velocity, he is halfway to returning to the pitcher he was in 2006 and the first half of 2007. The other half, of course, is the command of his fastball. He needs to get ahead of the count in order to fully utilize that slider. I've got Bonderman pencilled into the rotation. This will be the case until there is some bad news in his recovery. Many pitchers have recoverred fully from his condition.

Eddie Bonine: Now on a spring invite after being sent outright to Toledo last week, Bonine is also a long shot. Of primary concern for Bonine will be ensuring that he returns from his torn lat injury without hurting himself in other ways. Two recent torn lat recoveries have not ended well. Ben Sheets tore his lat muscle in August, 2005 and got off to a slow start in 2006, missing some time with shoulder tendinitis. Also, Chad Cordero was diagnosed with a torn lat last year, but ended up with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Hopefully Bonine can recover and take some steps forward this year. If he does, he may be a more formidable emergency option over the summer.

Alfredo Figaro: Figaro is listed in the name of completeness. He's probably not a serious candidate, but he's a starting pitcher (for now) and will be in camp. During the Skelton rants, I took my fair share of shots at Figaro, so we'll keep those to a minimum now. Even for the bullpen, Figaro is a long shot at this point.

Armando Galarraga: Buster Olney, last week, said Galarraga is a candidate for the rotation. Either Olney is way ahead of the curve and realizes how lucky some of Galarraga's numbers were or he is clueless as to the role that Galarraga played on this team last year. Given some of his Baseball Tonight stints that I have seen, I'd lean toward the latter. Galarraga, despite being one of the few candidates with options, will have to blow up this spring to avoid the rotation. He's not a lock, but he's not in competition.

Count me as one who is not at all excited to see Galarraga's name on Venezuela's provisional World Baseball Classic roster. A pitcher with a history of elbow problems coming off a career high in innings needs to be under his team's care in Spring Training.

Edwin Jackson: I still believe this is a darkhorse closer candidate. This runs contrary to everything that Leyland and Dombrowski have said about him since the trade. It just seemed that a hard throwing pitcher with iffy numbers and control issues could do well in relief. If all of the candidates recover, I wouldn't rule that out. As it stands now, Jackson is slated for the rotation, and I'll have him pencilled in, ignoring my speculative side.

Jon Kibler: The Tigers' 2008 Minor League pitcher of the year was rewarded with this invite, but it's very hard to see him on the team this year. I'd imagine a strong spring would merely lead to Kibler skipping Lakeland this year.

Chris Lambert: Did not impress scouts in Toledo. Despite the fine season last year, he's got his work cut out to crack the rotation. The troubling cup of coffee with the big club is made better by a ton of unearned runs which would have made his ERA even worse with a different official scorer. I'll include Lambert with the bullpen candidates.

Zach Miner: Miner has been somewhat forgotten since the Edwin Jackson acquisition. I like Miner a lot better as a starter, but Jim Leyland disagrees. Miner is certainly a candidate, but his status probably depends on the recoveries of Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis.

Fu-Te Ni: The import from Chinese Taipai, Ni's a bit of an unknown. I include him with the starters just in case, but it seems like everything points to him heading to the pen. It will be interesting if he chooses to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic or try to make an impression on the Tigers' brass.

Ryan Perry: Included for completion. I don't think he's a candidate for the rotation. It appears as if Perry is destined for relief and could move quickly. I'll have him with the reliever candidates. A lot depends on this spring.

Rick Porcello: There's some talk that he could crack the team. I'd think a lot would have to go wrong in order for there to be a spot for him right off the bat, however.

Nate Robertson: Recovering from an off year, this is a huge spring for Robertson. I get the feeling improved defense from Curtis Granderson and the shortstop position could go a long way for him. All of the fluff pieces talk about Nate getting in shape. Hopefully that translates.

Justin Verlander: Probably the only lock* in the rotation. I'd go into a discussion about how much his numbers would have looked if he had better teammates last year, but this would take a while. It's true, though, that his offense, defense, and bullpens failed him on numerous occassions. That 11-17 4.84 line should probably look more like 17-11 3.84. Then again, if you are reading this blog, you probably know how flawed W-L ERA is when evaluating pitchers.

*When you are dealing with people throwing baseball overhand at 90+ mph, there is no such thing as a pure lock. Injuries happen.

Dontrelle Willis: The fluff pieces on Willis are in full force. I won't buy it until he can go a few Spring Training innings without a walk or wild pitch. I don't see him cracking the rotation as things stand right now. Luckily, these projections are fluid enough that we can adjust for that later in the spring.

Tentative Projections:
In alphabetical order (I hate arguments over rotation numbers. They don't matter!), here is the projected rotation as of February 9:

Jeremy Bonderman
Armando Galarraga
Edwin Jackson
Nate Robertson
Justin Verlander

Robertson's spot is probably the most tenuous. He's helped by his contract and the fact that he stunk in relief last year. This means Zach Miner is projected to be headed to the pen for the time being. As for Willis, we'll move him with the relief candidates, but he could be headed to the minor leagues. Bear in mind that my projection is that Willis will not regain his control and will not be in a position to refuse his assignment. If he pitches well this spring, he has a rotation spot.

Top 30 Revisited

I'm not sure if I ever posted my preseason Top 30 prospects list here. Frankly, when my hard drive crashed, I thought I had lost it forever. When my Number 2 prospect started having one of the worst years of anybody in AAA or the Majors, I can honestly say I was glad that it was lost forever. Well, I found it. I wanted to go over this and laugh at how big of an idiot I was before the season. In the meantime, I'll color code all of the players to show how they moved this year.

Green means they took a big step forward this year.
Lime green suggests they took a small step in the right direction.
Black will be used in the place of yellow for readability and means the guy stood still this year.
Orange represents a slight step backward.
Red shows a player falling off the map.

1. Rick Porcello- Will remain number 1 this offseason barring massive shoulder surgery. Given that there has been no report of anything close to that, he should be safe. He really wasn't that good in Lakeland, but there was still a lot to like.
2. Yorman Bazardo- Yeah, I had him #2. Call it a hunch. Call it stupidity. Call it a hidden shoulder injury affecting his play all year, but a 6.72 ERA and a loss in velocity will move you down from here. A free agent in a matter of weeks, it wouldn't surprise me if Bazardo didn't return. Even if he did, he'd be lucky to crack the top 30.
3. Michael Hollimon- Had a bit of an off year, but we now know why. Still, he'll be a 27 year old infielder who may not be cut out for shortstop upon his return. It will be imperative for him to show this year was an injury-caused blip lest he be cast in the utility role forever. For now, I'd put Hollimon in the 10-15 prospect range right now.
4. Jeff Larish- At four because the farm wasn't too strong, Larish is blocked from first base through 2015 for now. Still, he'd need to do better than he did this year to garner consideration for any type of job. I'd tentatively put him in the 5-10 range before next year.
5. James Skelton- The .098 isolated power number is what has me worried more than the perception that he's too light. I'd tentatively move him down slightly, but there's not many guys that can zoom past him.
6. Charlie Furbush- Got a bit too wrapped up in the strong opening year campaign. After missing this year with Tommy John surgery, it's entirely possible that he's a sleeper for the next two seasons. Still, he won't be anywhere near the top ten next year. The success rate of Tommy John recoveries keeps him from being red.
   
7. Matt Joyce- Even though I doubted his candidacy, this is about as high as you will see Joyce in any ranking. He's been a pleasant surprise this year and seems to have a hold on the left field job for the time being.
8. Danny Worth- He was about what I expected this year. The shoulder injury sounds serious and could keep him from being a dark horse next spring. I'll probably keep him in right about the same area.
9. Scott Sizemore- A bit of a disappointment before the hand injury, and a tremendous disappointment once you realize he was shut down after June 2. He'll take a slight drop in the rankings this year.
10. Virgil Vasquez- Struggled in AAA and didn't get a call in September. Could be at risk of losing his 40 man roster spot over the winter. Currently orange, but was close to red this year.
11. Brandon Hamilton- Still young, so the control problems in West Michigan are excusable. Evidently, he was around the plate, so it wasn't Eric Beattie bad. He'll get another shot this year and could be a breakout candidate.
12. Deik Scram- I had him too high. Somewhat overrated because he was drafted as a senior, Scram struggled in Erie this year despite being old for the league. I doubt he cracks my top 30 this offseason.
13. Casey Crosby- On the road back from Tommy John surgery, Crosby made a few appearances in the GCL. He'll probably move up in the rankings, but only because some guys ahead of him moved down. A nice breakout candidate for 2009.
14. Jordan Tata- While I don't have enough inside information to come to this conclusion, I would suspect the fall of Jordan Tata could be one of the biggest strikes against the Tigers' training/medical staff. He's gone from possible fill-in to the brink of retirement this year. Nobody is redder than Tata.
15. Cale Iorg- I wanted to see some results before ranking him aggressively. Considering he was coming off a two year break, the .251/.329/.405 line in Lakeland doesn't look to shabby. Combined with the high strikeouts, it's not the type of line you want from a top prospect. He get's a lime green for not embarrassing himself, but needs a big year in Erie next year.
16. Alexis Espinoza- Struggled in the GCL. I would chalk it up to a big jump from the Venezuelan Leagues to the US leagues, but Luis Palacios, Lester Oliveros, Victor Larez, and Mauricio Robles seemed to handle it pretty well.
17. Francisco Cruceta- Cruceta's season reminds me of an old Simpsons episode, where the comet is headed for town and everybody heads for the Flanders' disaster shelter. At the end, the comet turns out to be a pebble that shatters the shelter after everybody had left. Starting the season on the restricted list because of visa issues, there were some lofty expectations for Cruceta, who ended up back in Toledo because he couldn't throw his fastball for a strike. He's red because I don't think he'll be back with the organization next year.
18. Duane Below- There are legitimate doubts about whether he has the arsenal to get hitters out at a higher level. As soon as the strikeouts dipped below 9 an inning, I started listening to those doubts. He'll probably be around 30 after the season.
19. Brent Clevlen- I'm not sure what to make of Clevlen. The strikeouts remained an issue, and his BABIP was very high this year. It seems to suggest that he was pretty lucky, even after his luck ran out in August. Out of options next year, the Tigers would be wise to try and swap him for a relief project.
20. Luke French- Frankly, I'm not sure why I had French so high. His strikeouts plummeted this year. There's still something there, but he'll not only need a big year next year, he'll need a shot at one.
21. Clete Thomas- A strong year from Clete. Even with the late-season elbow injury, he should be in the team's plans, even if he's not ready for spring training. Because he spent more than 45 days on the active roster, Thomas will not be rookie eligible next season.
    
22. Wilkin Ramirez- The scary thing is that this is right around the consensus spot for Wilkin coming into the season. The strikeouts were still there in Erie, and his BABIP was above .400. Even though he is a fast dude, there is reason to be concerned. Still, he should take a big step forward.
23. Michael Hernandez- I did my rankings before he was shipped out for Armando Galarraga. The ironic part is that Hernandez has already paid off in more ways than anybody on this list, including Matt Joyce. Despite that, he's since been released by Texas and finished the year in low A ball for the Mets. It was a big step back for a guy dealt for the Tigers' best starting pitcher this year.
24. Clay Rapada- I don't see why the organization felt it necessary to have Casey Fossum on the roster while Rapada was pitching in Toledo. He's in place to be a member of next year's bullpen, but watch out for that shoulder. There were problems in spring and he even spent some time on the disabled list early in the year. That's cause for concern. Rapada, due to having 45 days on the active roster prior to September 1, will not be eligible for next year's rankings.
25. Noah Krol- Typically, I'm not very bullish when it comes to low level relief prospects. I should have stuck to those guns here, as Krol did not put up the type of age 24 season that justifies keeping a reliever on this list.
26. Brett Jensen- The Tigers' minor league relievers tend to have problems recovering from Tommy John surgery for whatever reason. P.J. Finigan still isn't back from his problems last year, and Orlando Perdomo went back under the knife during his rehab process. Watch Jensen closely and see if he can get back to full strength. Until he does, he's off the list.
27. Andrew Kown- Whoops. Released this summer, Kown has since latched on with the Nationals, and put together 17 quality innings for AAA Columbus.
28. Luke Putkonen- "Minor" offseason shoulder surgery and bouts with shoulder problems all year give me legitimate doubts that Putkonen will stay healthy enough to move up the ladder. That he returned to pitching after having his shoulder checked out by the Tigers' medical staff is hardly reassuring.
29. Ryan Strieby- A nice power breakout, but I still have doubts that he can hit enough to crack the majors.
30. Brennan Boesch- Another iffy year for Boesch, who needs to have a Wilkin-like performance in Erie next year to revive his prospect status.
    

Morosi 1, Henning 0

Two Top prospect lists were announced today. Baseball America released its list, compiled by John Paul Morosi of the Free Press. Not to be outdone, Lynn Henning posted his top 20.

Baseball America:
1. Rick Porcello, rhp
2. Cale Iorg, ss
3. Scott Sizemore, 2b
4. Michael Hollimon, 2b/ss
5. Yorman Bazardo, rhp
6. Jeff Larish, 1b
7. Matt Joyce, of
8. Danny Worth, ss
9. Francisco Cruceta, rhp
10. Brandon Hamilton, rhp

Like most people out there, I was a bit surprised to see Cale Iorg that high. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus had him ranked #4, but those rankings came out while Cameron Maybin (#1) was Detroit property and Casey Crosby (#3) had his previous elbow ligament. There seems to be somewhat of a consensus between their sources that Cale Iorg is very very impressive. It's hard to argue with that notion, as there is next to no data out there on him. He played just a couple of weeks in Lakeland before missing the Hawaii league with a minor injury.

For a guy with next to no power, Scott Sizemore seems kind of high to me. Jeff Larish may seem low to some people, but as I pointed out Wednesday, it's justified. Matt Joyce performed well enough in Erie to raise some eyebrows, and all reports suggest he has a great arm. Danny Worth has been overrated by many fans after a supposed hot start this year, and Francisco Cruceta cracking the #9 spot shows just how depleted the farm system is.

Overall, I have no major gripes with this list. The most egregious omission would appear to be James Skelton, but I have heard hesitation that he deserves a catcher of the future tag.

Henning:
1. Rick Porcello, RHP, 6-5, 200, age 19
2. Cale Iorg, SS, 6-2, 175, age 22
3. Casey Crosby, LHP, 6-4, 195, age 19
4. Jeff Larish, 1B, 6-2, 200, age 25
5. Matt Joyce, RF, 6-2, 185, age 23
6. Danny Worth, SS, 6-1, 180, age 22
7. Scott Sizemore, 2B, 6 feet, 185, age 23
8. Michael Hollimon, SS, 6-1, 185, age 25
9. Jeff Gerbe, RHP, 6-3, 190, age 23
10. Clete Thomas, CF, 5-11, 195, age 24
11. Tony Giarratano, SS, 6-0, 180, age 25
12. Brent Dlugach, SS, 6-5, 200, age 24
13. Brent Clevlen, RF, 6-2, 190, age 24
14. Wilken Ramirez, OF, 6-2, 190, age 22
15. Joe Bowen, C, 6-1, 190, age 20
16. Devin Thomas, C, 5-10, 195, age 22
17. Audy Ciriaco, SS, 6-3, 195, age 20
18. Preston Larrison, RHP, 6-4, 235, age 27
19. Freddy Dolsi, RHP, 6 foot, 160 pounds, age 25
20. Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, 6-1, 160, age 24

The top eight, in no particular order, seem reasonable. Jeff Gerbe seems pretty high at #9, as I have a hard time seeing a guy bound for relief as the third-best pitcher in the organization. Clete Thomas had an okay year last year, but he is a guy with contact issues and limited power. Tony Giarratano and Brent Clevlen were both defense-first shortstops who have yet to return from labrum surgery. As such, they really don't belong in the discussion. Brent Clevlen's stock has taken a huge hit after terrible years in 2004, 2006, and 2007. It's spelled Wilkin. There is no way Joe Bowen belongs in this discussion at all, especially with the absence of Skelton. Preston Larrison is no longer a prospect, while Freddy Dolsi and Guillermo Moscoso are way too old for their levels.

I was trying to hold out until the motownsports.com fan rankings come out, but I will post my Top Ten today:

1. Rick Porcello
2. Yorman Bazardo
3. Mike Hollimon
4. Jeff Larish
5. James Skelton
6. Charlie Furbush
7. Matt Joyce
8. Danny Worth
9. Scott Sizemore
10. Virgil Vasquez

Porcello is obvious. Despite the full rotation, I do believe that Yorman Bazardo has the stuff and ability to crack the rotation in the event of the inevitable injury. It will be very important that the Tigers don't make a mistake and let him go this spring. Hollimon comes in over Larish because there are more possibilities for a middle infielder than a firstbaseman. I admit that Skelton and Furbush are probably too high, but there isn't much out there. Both had pretty good seasons this year, and I believe Skelton will forever be battling biases against his size as a catcher. Joyce's plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired, and as a corner outfield he needs to be doing better than just above average offensively. I'm still not sure Worth and Sizemore will hit enough, and Virgil Vasquez leaves a lot of balls up in the zone. I have Cale Iorg in at 15, although a top notch season this year will shoot him up where those in the organization apparently think he belongs. I'm confident in Casey Crosby's recovery, but do want to see some results or a positive prognosis before placing him high on the list. I just think the rust may be too hard to kick off.

Two more avoid arbitration
Finally, the Tigers avoided arbitration with Miguel Cabrera ($11.3 million) and Bobby Seay ($780,000). Both were right around what I expected. Seay was really an unsung hero last year, as he was arguably the team's best reliever, as he was finally utilized in an advantageous manner with lefties hitting just .209/.270/.275 against him.

Porcello and Selig

It's been well documented how wise the Tigers have been the past few years in their draft selections early on. The money being spent on premium draft picks, on the surface, is just a mere fraction of what mediocre free agents are getting on the market. That point has been drilled to death for months. I want to take a different look at this draft.

Let's take two scenarios for Rick Porcello:

1.) Rick Porcello signs with a Major League baseball team, a team likely to protect its significant investment. In this scenario, let's assume it takes him 2-3 years to crack the big leagues and an additional year to become a star player. As a star pitcher, he could potentially be the face of the team and the face of baseball in the process, growing it's popularity and improving the overall talent level in the Major Leagues. The better the talent, the better the game...

2.) Rick Porcello doesn't sign with a Major League team. He goes to the University of North Carolina, playing under a college baseball coach (a profession known for its sacrificing young arms to win games). Porcello's arm tires his sophomore year and undergoes shoulder surgery, never returning to his talented form. The game loses a potential star, and he flames out in somebody's minor league system.

Which scenario is better for Major League Baseball? If Bud was truly looking out for the best interests of the game, he would prefer scenario 1, correct?

It's time to get over this notion that Bud Selig represents the game's best interests. It simply isn't true, and never was. He is the owner's representative, and simply represents the owners' best interest. Major League Baseball's best interests are no higher on his priority list than Scott Boras' or Donald Fehr's.


On another note, I'll be missing the first part of tonight's game, marking this the second time I've missed a star prospect's debut in the past week. Also, the team is on a five game losing streak when I don't catch the game, and a five game winning streak when I do. Hopefully that reverses itself tonight.