Amazing what you can miss in a day...

Thanks to the great service at Comcast, much of the Jacksonville, FL area was without cable and internet yesterday. While I really don't like boring my eight readers with personal details, it sets up the shock I had when I checked up on the Tigers during my lunch break today.

The most obvious shock was the wave of transactions before and after last night's game.

Recalling Wilkin Ramirez makes sense. Curtis Granderson was in need of a day off, and there is a shortage of right-handed bats on the team. If you can make a roster move for a spot starting pitcher, why not for a spot starting outfielder? Sending down Fien also makes sense. His last two outings have been rough.

I particularly liked Jim Leyland's quotes about this from MLB.com:

"We might be tinkering with our rosters for the next month or so," Leyland said. "If we overtax our bullpen tonight, we may send [Ramirez] back down tomorrow. He'll start tonight and who knows, that could be it. For one day, we have enough [rested arms] in our bullpen so we went out and added another right-handed bat."

...

"We're not trying to reinvent the wheel here," Leyland said. "If you have the flexibility with your Major League roster, why not tinker with it. So don't read too much into this move."

It makes sense to me to utilize roster flexibility and take advantage of the short distance between Toledo and Detroit. It's a way to effectively expand the roster for the rest of the season. In a tight division race, it's the type of strategy that could make a huge difference.

After the game, Ramirez, no longer needed to spell Granderson, was sent back to Toledo along with Dusty Ryan (Honestly, was he even on the roster?). Chris Lambert, effectively taking Fien's place on the roster, and top catching prospect Alex Avila came up.

Lambert is a quality choice. He's been rolling lately. Had I been a motivated blogger, you would have seen me calling for his promotion back when Eddie Bonine got the spot start.

Avila is interesting, because there are procedural roster implications to this move.

1. He was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2011 season. He'll now be using up a 40 man roster spot that could be used on somebody else for two years.
   
2. He'll also be using up option years he wouldn't have otherwise been using if he's not ready for the big leagues. Recent history shows that there is a learning curve for top catching prospects once they reach the Majors. Look no further than Chris Ianetta, J.R. Towles, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero, and Matt Wieters as guys who came up with high expectations and took (or are still taking) years to live up to them. It's definitely a risk that could come back to bite the Tigers if Avila runs out of options as he's reaching his potential.
3. He'll probably be riding a lot of pine. For whatever reason, Gerald Laird is still starting somewhere around 10 games per week. This, however, could be an intended benefit of purchasing Avila's contract. How could that be? Catchers take quite a toll. Often, in the minors, catchers' workloads are built up gradually, much like pitchers. Rather than have him start 20-25 more games with Erie the rest of the year, they may be wanting to limit his workload, much like a pitcher in his first professional season. Having him sit the bench in the bigs could provide him that opportunity, while allowing him to get comfortable instead of being shell shocked in April.

Finally, these moves are also intriguing because of the new postseason roster rules. Rather than having position player and pitcher quotas, the rules have changed to have players on the 40 man roster as of August 31 eligible. Alex Avila is now eligible for postseason play, if the Tigers make it. This gives the Tigers two choices for backup catcher, rather than the one if Dusty Ryan had remained on the roster and Avila had been called up in September. Cycling players like Ramirez, Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Ryan Perry, and Lambert through the roster give the Tigers an extra look at players if they need to make a decision on who to put on the roster in early October.

Projecting the Rosters - The Bullpen

Now to the Achilles heal of last year's team. How bad was the bullpen? Their -4.35 WPA suggests they cost the Tigers approximately nine wins. While the defense certainly hurt, the inability of the starters to get deep into games is not as big of a problem as I had assumed. The team finished in the middle of the pack in starter's innings.

The bullpen competition is wide open this year. In doing these projections, I am going to assume five right-handers and two southpaws. This has been the standard setup since Leyland took over the reigns three years ago. Listed among the candidates is every pitcher in camp not among the projected starters with three exceptions. Eddie Bonine, Jon Kibler, and Rick Porcello are not listed because they appear to be exclusively starters at this point.

Redundant Players, already mentioned with the starters:
Kyle Bloom, L: A rule 5 pick, so the Tigers will want to be extra sure there's no potential before sending him back to Pittsburgh. I haven't heard anything about Bloom in a while, but you'd have to imagine a strong spring would leave him as the second lefty, much to the chagrin of Macay McBride and Clay Rapada.

Alfredo Figaro, R: Hasn't pitched above Lakeland and hasn't succeeded above West Michigan. Figaro will need to have turned a few corners before getting a bullpen job this year. I'd say he's likely destined for a rotation in Erie or Lakeland, or if they want to get him on a fast track, to relief.

Chris Lambert, R: Possibly a long reliever candidate. I don't see room for him right now. With three options remaining, I don't think the Tigers would mind using one to send him to Toledo to start games.

Zach Miner, R: As I mentioned yesterday, Miner is still a candidate to start. If one of Robertson and Willis show something in the spring, Miner could be off to the bullpen to be a starter in waiting. It confounds some people, but Miner still has two options years left just in case. No team gets 162 starts from their opening day rotation; very few get 120. He will get a chance to start games, but can be valuable as a long man.

Fu-Te Ni, L: Another wild card this spring. A strong camp could have Ni making those of us who find Monty Python unfunny and annoying want to stay away from Comerica Park. As it stands, I'm projecting him for Toledo, because unlike three other lefties in competition for bullpen jobs, he can be sent there without being lost.

Ryan Perry, R: Hey look! Another complete unknown. It's not hard to forsee a scenario where Perry makes the big league club out of spring. However, until that happens, I'm going to have him slotted for Erie.

Dontrelle Willis, L: I get the feeling Willis will either be fully recovered and in the rotation or struggling to throw strikes and in limbo. I don't see him in the bullpen right now.

Full time relievers:
Rudy Darrow, R: Darrow may be one of those "Use him while you've got him" guys. The sidearmer has a very painful looking motion, one that has already sent him under the knife in 2005. Take a look at this picture to see what I mean.

Stop me if you've heard this before. Darrow is a candidate for the pen if he impresses the right people this spring. The mere fact that there is competition for the bullpen spots tells me things will improve this year.

Freddy Dolsi, R: After a meteoric rise to the bullpen last year, you have to wonder if Dolsi did enough to stick around. Once again, a lot will depend on his spring. We'll pencil him in for now.

Casey Fien, R: After almost making the team out of spring last year, Fien put up a fine season in Erie and Toledo. Since being drafted in 2006 in 164.2 IP, Fien has struck out 173 batters and walked just 34. I'm sold.

Brandon Lyon, R: I don't particularly care who's closer. Getting outs in the 7th and 8th innings is important too. That said, Lyon seems to be the front-runner for the closer spot. He's an upgrade on Todd Jones, and is as close as a lock as a reliever can be.

Macay McBride, L: Kyle Bloom will get a lot of talk as a Rule 5 draftee, but Macay McBride, being out of options, can't be sent to Toledo if he misses the team either. Recovering from Tommy John Surgery, the DL could be an option for McBride if there isn't room for him. I haven't heard anything about how his rehab is going.

Clay Rapada, L: I'm racking my brain for reasons that Casey Fossum was on the roster over Rapada last year. With one option year remaining, Toledo could be his destination again while Bloom and McBride fight over the second lefty spot.

Juan Rincon, R: The former Twin signed a minor league deal and will have to show something in order to make the team. The last two (post-steroid) years have been pretty ugly for Rincon. I don't see him making the squad without a major resurgence or some Leyland Veteran Fetish.

Fernando Rodney, R: It's February 10, and Fernando Rodney hasn't had an injury yet in 2009. Another "lock" for the bullpen unless that shoulder acts up. He's got almost two months, so I'd say that's fairly likely.

Bobby Seay, L: Probably a lock as the bullpen's primary lefty. Seay has been solid in the bullpen, but you would ideally like to see some dominance. You have to pencil him in for now.

Zach Simons, R: Lumped in with Perry, Fien, and Darrow as rookie relievers with a shot with a nice Spring. A word of warning with Simons: That .232 BABIP in Lakeland last year was pretty fluky. He may not be the pitcher his surface numbers in Lakeland suggest.

Scott Williamson, R: Scott Williamson is a great pitcher when he's healthy. Unfortunately, he hasn't been healthy since 2003. Matt Mantei, Part 3, I think he retires during the spring.

Joel Zumaya, R: Cutting to the chase, I don't think Zumaya will be ready for the season. I'm projecting him for the DL, hoping that the Tigers take it easy on him. Zumaya is Exhibit A in why you should use big arms while you've got them.

So, in summary

R-Freddy Dolsi
R-Casey Fien
R-Brandon Lyon
R-Zach Miner
R-Fernando Rodney
L-Kyle Bloom
L-Bobby Seay

Lyon, Rodney, Miner (assuming he's not in the rotation), and Seay appear to be locks. I've got Bloom in as the second lefty because he can't be demoted (and McBride can go on the DL). Dolsi's got a job to lose, and Casey Fien seems to be the closest to MLB ready among the rookie candidates. Zumaya and McBride start on the DL. Willis accepts his assignment to Toledo or Lakeland. The rest will go into the minor league pool of candidates as we work our way down.

This is a wide open competition, and I will be adjusting this frequently based on some of the news from Lakeland. The position players are next.

Figuring out the Opening Day Rosters

Typically, I like having organizational roster projections by this point in the year. This year, however, it has been difficult to get going on these projections. A few factors are playing into this delay. First, the Tigers have so many question marks among the pitchers. While in recent years, the roles have been pretty much defined, that is not the case this year. Several pitchers are returning from injuries, ineffectiveness or both, and it is hard to project which twelve will be on the roster. Second, the free agent market has left me believe there still may be more moves to be made. However, it appears as if Brandon Lyon will be the last move to affect the Tigers at the Major League level (If Ruddy Lugo gets a call, this team is in trouble).

To start, I wanted to look at the starting pitchers in Big League camp. Rather than start with the seven who are presumed to be in competition for a starting job, I will look at every player who could be a starting pitcher this year. This is to ensure that nobody is being left behind. In alphabetical order:

Kyle Bloom: Not thought of as a starting candidate, but has been predominantly a starter in the minors. It was widely reported that he took some major steps in the right direction in 2008, and it showed in his split statistics. Bloom is a long shot, but a strong spring could land him in the bullpen. If he impresses the Tigers, they will likely do what they can to keep him on the roster this year.

Jeremy Bonderman: All of the articles on Bonderman are glowing. (Which articles this time of year aren't glowing?) If he has indeed regained his velocity, he is halfway to returning to the pitcher he was in 2006 and the first half of 2007. The other half, of course, is the command of his fastball. He needs to get ahead of the count in order to fully utilize that slider. I've got Bonderman pencilled into the rotation. This will be the case until there is some bad news in his recovery. Many pitchers have recoverred fully from his condition.

Eddie Bonine: Now on a spring invite after being sent outright to Toledo last week, Bonine is also a long shot. Of primary concern for Bonine will be ensuring that he returns from his torn lat injury without hurting himself in other ways. Two recent torn lat recoveries have not ended well. Ben Sheets tore his lat muscle in August, 2005 and got off to a slow start in 2006, missing some time with shoulder tendinitis. Also, Chad Cordero was diagnosed with a torn lat last year, but ended up with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Hopefully Bonine can recover and take some steps forward this year. If he does, he may be a more formidable emergency option over the summer.

Alfredo Figaro: Figaro is listed in the name of completeness. He's probably not a serious candidate, but he's a starting pitcher (for now) and will be in camp. During the Skelton rants, I took my fair share of shots at Figaro, so we'll keep those to a minimum now. Even for the bullpen, Figaro is a long shot at this point.

Armando Galarraga: Buster Olney, last week, said Galarraga is a candidate for the rotation. Either Olney is way ahead of the curve and realizes how lucky some of Galarraga's numbers were or he is clueless as to the role that Galarraga played on this team last year. Given some of his Baseball Tonight stints that I have seen, I'd lean toward the latter. Galarraga, despite being one of the few candidates with options, will have to blow up this spring to avoid the rotation. He's not a lock, but he's not in competition.

Count me as one who is not at all excited to see Galarraga's name on Venezuela's provisional World Baseball Classic roster. A pitcher with a history of elbow problems coming off a career high in innings needs to be under his team's care in Spring Training.

Edwin Jackson: I still believe this is a darkhorse closer candidate. This runs contrary to everything that Leyland and Dombrowski have said about him since the trade. It just seemed that a hard throwing pitcher with iffy numbers and control issues could do well in relief. If all of the candidates recover, I wouldn't rule that out. As it stands now, Jackson is slated for the rotation, and I'll have him pencilled in, ignoring my speculative side.

Jon Kibler: The Tigers' 2008 Minor League pitcher of the year was rewarded with this invite, but it's very hard to see him on the team this year. I'd imagine a strong spring would merely lead to Kibler skipping Lakeland this year.

Chris Lambert: Did not impress scouts in Toledo. Despite the fine season last year, he's got his work cut out to crack the rotation. The troubling cup of coffee with the big club is made better by a ton of unearned runs which would have made his ERA even worse with a different official scorer. I'll include Lambert with the bullpen candidates.

Zach Miner: Miner has been somewhat forgotten since the Edwin Jackson acquisition. I like Miner a lot better as a starter, but Jim Leyland disagrees. Miner is certainly a candidate, but his status probably depends on the recoveries of Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis.

Fu-Te Ni: The import from Chinese Taipai, Ni's a bit of an unknown. I include him with the starters just in case, but it seems like everything points to him heading to the pen. It will be interesting if he chooses to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic or try to make an impression on the Tigers' brass.

Ryan Perry: Included for completion. I don't think he's a candidate for the rotation. It appears as if Perry is destined for relief and could move quickly. I'll have him with the reliever candidates. A lot depends on this spring.

Rick Porcello: There's some talk that he could crack the team. I'd think a lot would have to go wrong in order for there to be a spot for him right off the bat, however.

Nate Robertson: Recovering from an off year, this is a huge spring for Robertson. I get the feeling improved defense from Curtis Granderson and the shortstop position could go a long way for him. All of the fluff pieces talk about Nate getting in shape. Hopefully that translates.

Justin Verlander: Probably the only lock* in the rotation. I'd go into a discussion about how much his numbers would have looked if he had better teammates last year, but this would take a while. It's true, though, that his offense, defense, and bullpens failed him on numerous occassions. That 11-17 4.84 line should probably look more like 17-11 3.84. Then again, if you are reading this blog, you probably know how flawed W-L ERA is when evaluating pitchers.

*When you are dealing with people throwing baseball overhand at 90+ mph, there is no such thing as a pure lock. Injuries happen.

Dontrelle Willis: The fluff pieces on Willis are in full force. I won't buy it until he can go a few Spring Training innings without a walk or wild pitch. I don't see him cracking the rotation as things stand right now. Luckily, these projections are fluid enough that we can adjust for that later in the spring.

Tentative Projections:
In alphabetical order (I hate arguments over rotation numbers. They don't matter!), here is the projected rotation as of February 9:

Jeremy Bonderman
Armando Galarraga
Edwin Jackson
Nate Robertson
Justin Verlander

Robertson's spot is probably the most tenuous. He's helped by his contract and the fact that he stunk in relief last year. This means Zach Miner is projected to be headed to the pen for the time being. As for Willis, we'll move him with the relief candidates, but he could be headed to the minor leagues. Bear in mind that my projection is that Willis will not regain his control and will not be in a position to refuse his assignment. If he pitches well this spring, he has a rotation spot.