Monday, May 05, 2008

One Man's Drastic Changes

Much has been made over the drastic changes to the lineup that will be debuted tonight. I'm not convinced that changes to the lineup are the answer any more than I am that a team can get away with one lineup. I have two sets of three lineups to use. One set of lineups for right-handed opponents, one set for left-handed opponents. One lineup is the "everyday" lineup, and the other two account for days off by Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Those two should each be seeing at least one off day every week.

vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF

I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.

vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B

vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C

vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF

It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.

vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF

If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.

vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF

Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.

I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.

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