Waiting until after the June draft could make sense for Cabrera - he'd wipe out the draft pick problem, probably still get $2MM, and won't get Type A status again.
It's an interesting thought. Cabrera could wait until June and lose two months of stats in an attempt to lose Type A Status, but would it work? Before digging in, let's take a look at the shortstop rankings from last season:
| Michael Young (A) | 88.000 |
| Orlando Cabrera (A) | 86.000 |
| Derek Jeter (A) | 84.000 |
| Jhonny Peralta (A) | 82.286 |
| Edgar Renteria (A) | 79.429 |
| Carlos Guillen (B) | 68.000 |
To check, I will remove Cabrera's 2008 numbers from Opening Day through June 15 to see how his ranking looks.
| Michael Young (A) | 88.571 | |
| Derek Jeter (A) | 85.714 | |
| Jhonny Peralta (A) | 83.429 | |
| Edgar Renteria (A) | 81.143 | |
| Orlando Cabrera (A) | 75.429 | |
| Carlos Guillen (B) | 68.000 |
Wow. The two months would not have done the trick for Cabrera, as he still would have been a Type A free agent.
What if Cabrera, with his actual stats, had been in the National League?
| Jimmy Rollins (A) | 85.185 |
| Troy Tulowitzki (A) | 81.481 |
| Hanley Ramirez (A) | 79.894 |
| Jose Reyes (A) | 78.307 |
| Orlando Cabrera (A) | 78.307 |
| Miguel Tejada (A) | 75.132 |
| J.J. Hardy (B) | 67.725 |
He would have had a much weaker hold on a Type A spot, but would have retained it. What about with his numbers through June 15 removed?
| Jimmy Rollins (A) | 85.185 |
| Troy Tulowitzki (A) | 82.011 |
| Hanley Ramirez (A) | 80.952 |
| Jose Reyes (A) | 79.365 |
| Miguel Tejada (A) | 76.190 |
| J.J. Hardy (B) | 68.783 |
| Orlando Cabrera (B) | 68.254 |
He becomes a Type B. There is no doubt that there is a disparity between the shortstops in the American League and National League. It is also likely that this will grow. With Rollins, Tulowitzki, Ramirez, and Reyes in their prime and other young starters like Stephen Drew, J.J. Hardy, and Yunel Escobar coming on, the National League figures to have stronger shortstops for the foreseeable future. Also, with almost all of the projected starters for 2009 putting up solid and full 2008 seasons, a player like Cabrera would have a very hard time rising to the Type A's.
In addition, the American League 2009 crop of shortstops could be even weaker than 2008 as far as the Elias rankings go. In Boston, Anaheim, Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, Toronto, and Baltimore, there are competitions for jobs or non contributors from 2008 slated to play in 2009. What does this mean to these rankings? Quite simply, no shortstops will be racking up counting stats. In addition, Carlos Guillen is off the position for good, while Michael Young is confirmed to be leaving the position and Johnny Peralta could be right behind him. While Young and Peralta will still be in next year's rankings, they would be missing out on total chances at shortstop, killing their Elias Ranking like what happened to Carlos Guillen in 2008. Finally, the core group of American League shortstops, Jeter and Young, are in a state of decline and could see their numbers continue to drop in 2009. In short, it would not be unlikely to see a very average to below average player who plays almost every game in 2008-2009 rise to Type A status among American League shortstops. This means somebody like Jason Bartlett or Yuniesky Betancourt could be Type A, and Orlando Cabrera would almost assuredly be as well even after signing late.
So, my advice for Orlando Cabrera: If you want to avoid Type A status next offseason, sign with a National League team. Obviously, this is easier said than done, given that there aren't any openings in the senior circuit.
