Options and Waivers, Part 2

Before getting into waivers, I want to get into one more aspect of options that Billfer brought up, and that is the fourth option. From the Biz of Baseball:

A player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of professional experience. A full season is defined as being on an active pro roster for at least 90 days in a season. (If a player is put on the disabled list after earning 60 or more days of service in a single season, his time on the DL is counted.) The 90-day requirement means short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.

Rick Porcello, being added to the 40 man roster straight out of High School, is a candidate for this fourth option. As it stands, Porcello has four option years remaining as per the most recent collective bargaining agreement, meaning he doesn't have to reach the big leagues until opening day 2012.

When trying to option a player on waivers, you have to consider three variables:

• How much value will the player being kept provide over the player being put on waivers?
• Can we afford to lose this player on waivers?
• What is the likelihood that this player will be claimed on waivers?

I wanted to spend the next two posts taking a look at the third question on this list, and maybe another looking at finding an objective way to look at the first two. I also want to point out that we are talking about irrevocable waivers, which are different from the waivers that players are put on in August after the trading deadline.

What better way to find the risk of a player being claimed off waivers than looking at their individual waiver history? Several player who are out of options have been for many years and could be exposed to the waiver wires time and time again.

Denny Bautista:
Believe it or not, Denny Bautista has never been on waivers. The Tigers are his fifth organization, and he has been on a 40 man roster since the time the Orioles purchased his contract after the 2003 season.

Yorman Bazardo: Yorman Bazardo has also never been on waivers. He was designated for assignment last offseason, but the Tigers acquired him before he was placed on waivers.

Tim Byrdak: Byrdak epitomizes the term journeyman. His first stint in the big leagues was from 1998 through 2000 with the Royals. During that time, his three option years were used up. Rather than trying to option him after the 2000 season, Kansas City opted to non-tender Byrdak, making him a free agent. Byrdak never sniffed a 40-man roster again until getting his contract purchased by Baltimore in July of 2005. He stayed on Baltimore's roster until August 2006 when he was outrighted (clearing waivers) to Ottawa.

Tim Byrdak is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Francisco Cruceta: Another journeyman, this is Francisco Cruceta's fifth organization. Unlike Bautista, though, Cruceta has only been traded once. He first used up his options from 2003 through 2005 with the Indians having been slow to develop into the type of pitcher they wanted. They tried to sneak Cruceta off the 40-man roster in August, but Seattle was there to claim him. It appears as if the Mariners were able to slip him through waivers between August and January, when he received a spring invitation. Brought back onto the 40-man in September, 2006, Cruceta was put through waivers again after the season and claimed by Texas. He would not make the Rangers out of spring training, and cleared waivers before being sent to Oklahoma City for the duration of the season.

Francisco Cruceta is 2/4 in clearing waivers.

Jason Grilli: Another hard-throwing bullpen candidate who has bounced from team to team, Grilli is in his fourth organization. A high first round pick by the Giants, traded to the Marlins as part of the Livan Hernandez deal, there was a time when Grilli was a top notch pitching prospect until injuries derailed his status. After 2002, he successfully cleared waivers while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Drafted by the White Sox in the next season's Rule 5 Draft, Grilli again was put on waivers during the Spring of 2004. Aside from not even being claimed, the Marlins rejected the White Sox' mandatory offer of the Rule 5 draftee. The final time Jason Grilli was put through waivers was after the 2004 season when Chicago designated him for assignment and ultimately released him.

Jason Grilli is 3/3 in clearing waivers.

Bobby Seay: Seay ran out of options after the 2003 season, and failed to make the 2004 (Devil) Rays. He then succesfully cleared waivers during spring training. Seay was next placed on waivers as a Colorado Rockie during the 2005 season, again clearing before becoming a free agent after the season. Finally, Seay cleared waivers as a member of the 2006 Tigers.

Bobby Seay is 3/3 in clearing waivers.

Mike Hessman: Hessman has never been on irrevocable waivers. As a player who had made his debut four years before being optioned last year, he did have to clear revocable waivers, but I'm not going to count that in this discussion. It appears as if revocable waivers are very easy to clear.

Brandon Inge: A Tiger his whole life, and on the 40 man roster uninterrupted since the 2000-2001 off-season, Brandon Inge has no waiver experience.

Ramon Santiago: Santiago has only had to clear waivers once, after the 2004 season when the Mariners were making room on the 40-man roster. Twice, though, did he have to clear revocable waivers: in 2006 and 2007 with the Tigers.

Ramon Santiago is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Freddy Guzman: Speedy outfielder Freddy Guzman is loved by all that seem to believe that Dave Roberts' 2004 ALCS steal embodies all that is right with small ball and justifies giving players who can do nothing but run a roster spot. For Guzman, this would be his first time on waivers, as he is just running out of options.

Marcus Thames: Once among the many highly touted Yankees prospects before being traded to Texas. The Rangers were able to succesfully get Marcus Thames through waivers after the 2003 season. He promptly declared free agency and signed on with the Tigers.

Marcus Thames is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Timo Perez: I'm not quite sure where Timo Perez stands. He cleared waivers earlier in the offseason, and it is still the same waiver period. Does that mean he has to clear again? Is he even on the 40 man roster? I had thought so yesterday until his name showed up among the spring invites. For Perez, this was his second time on waivers having also been outrighted in 2006 with the Cardinals.

Timo Perez is 2/2 in clearing waivers, but may not have to clear this Spring.

There you have it. Francisco Cruceta is the only player on the roster with a history of being claimed off waivers. Over the course of the next few posts, I'll have to take a look at several potential variables that go into a player's waiver risk. Some that are going to be tested include:

• Prospect Status: Could a player being mentioned among Baseball America's top prospects play a role in their likelihood of being claimed? On top of that, a 2007 top prospect will certainly be claimed before a 2000 top prospect.
  
• Time of waiver: Roster crunches occur at different times of the year. Certainly, around November and December when players are being protected from the Rule 5 draft, it's probably much easier to clear waivers than mid-season where teams have more room on their reserve roster.
• Recent performance: One would think a player coming off of a fine season would have a harder time making it through waivers.
• Injury status

If you can think of any others, please let me know. Again, if you have any questions about anything, bring them up so they can be clarified.

Options and Waivers, Part 1

After reading Billfer's take on the bench, it became very clear that options and waivers will be causing issues for the Tigers this spring.

Here are some great references out there on roster rules:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/08/death_taxes_and_1.php
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=category&sectionid=19&id=44&Itemid=75
http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1860265
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/1999/0908/46397.html
http://wwww.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?author=85

There are more included in the bizofbaseball.com link.

I wanted to take some highlights and how this will effect the Tigers' decision making this March.

When a player is added to the 40-man roster, his club has three “options,” or three separate seasons during which the club may to move him to and from the minor leagues without exposing him to other clubs. A player on the 40-man roster playing in the minors is on optional assignment, and within an option season, there is no limit on the number of times a club may demote and recall a player. However, a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a Major League player on the disabled list during the 10-day window.

After three options are exhausted, the player is out of options. Beginning with the next season, he must clear waivers before he may be sent to the minors again. See Waivers. Additionally, a player with 5 years of Major League service may not be sent to the minor leagues on an optional assignment without his consent.

- Biz of Baseball

They go on to show how to calculate option years.

# If a player is not sent to the minors during a year, an option is not used.
# If a player is on the 40-man roster in spring training but optioned to the minors before the season begins, an option is used.
# If a player’s optional assignment(s) to the minors total less than 20 days in one season, an option is not used.

- Biz of Baseball

Here you can see when options are used by players. I wanted to point out that only one option can be used per year. In the instance of somebody like Craig Monroe in 2002 or Aquilino Lopez in 2007, only one option is used even though they were each shipped between Detroit and Toledo numerous times. The ultimate problem with running out of options is that a player cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. There is another case when this is true, from Keith Law

There is a rule rarely invoked in baseball that creates a situation where a player who has options remaining still has to clear waivers to be sent on an optional assignment. If the assignment is to begin at least three full calendar years from the date of the player's first appearance on a 25-man roster, then the player can not be sent on an optional assignment without first clearing major league waivers. These waivers are revocable, and players usually clear those waivers without incident.

So, what does this all mean? Ignoring the planned starting lineup, Vance Wilson, the Starting Rotation, Todd Jones, and Fernando Rodney, let's take a look at the option status of those fighting to make the team.

1. Any player who has been sent down on an optional assignment in three seasons is out of options, and will have to clear irrevocable waivers to be sent to the minors.

Three options used:
Denny Bautista (2004, 2006, 2007)
Yorman Bazardo (2005, 2006, 2007)
Tim Byrdak (1998, 1999, 2000)
Francisco Cruceta (2003, 2004, 2005)
Jason Grilli (2000, 2001, 2002)
Bobby Seay (2001, 2002, 2003)
Mike Hessman (2003, 2004, 2007)
Brandon Inge (2001, 2002, 2003)
Ramon Santiago (2003, 2006, 2007)
Freddy Guzman (2004, 2006, 2007)
Marcus Thames (2002, 2003, 2005)
Timo Perez (2001, 2002, 2007)

Two options used:
Macay McBride (2005, 2007)
Jordan Tata (2006, 2007)
Tony Giarratano (2005, 2006)
Brent Clevlen (2006, 2007)
Ryan Raburn (2004, 2005)

One option used:
Zach Miner (2007)
Clay Rapada (2007)
Rick Porcello (2007)
Virgil Vasquez (2007)

No options used:
Joel Zumaya

Out of the above players, barring injury, 15 will have to be sent down to Toledo, leaving a minimum of five players out of options who will have to be exposed to waivers.

I list Joel Zumaya because it would be interesting to see if he is sent on an optional assignment to Toledo to prevent service time from accruing during the injury. He's got three option years left, and could be arbitration eligible after this upcoming season. It's worth considering.

2. Players who first appeared on a 25 man rosters more than three calender years before the start of an optional assignment must clear revocable waivers.

Of the nine players who still have options remaining, only Ryan Raburn falls under this qualification, having made his Major League debut in 2004. Revocable waivers allow a team to pull a player back if they don't want him claimed. The waiver period in question runs from November 11 through April 30. This means the Tigers could have already slipped Raburn through waivers, allowing him to be optioned this Spring.

I'll talk more about the specifics of waivers and the likelihood of players being claimed in Part 2. In the meantime, if you have any questions, please leave them as I would love to answer them and feel they would be informative for anybody out there.

Morosi 1, Henning 0

Two Top prospect lists were announced today. Baseball America released its list, compiled by John Paul Morosi of the Free Press. Not to be outdone, Lynn Henning posted his top 20.

Baseball America:
1. Rick Porcello, rhp
2. Cale Iorg, ss
3. Scott Sizemore, 2b
4. Michael Hollimon, 2b/ss
5. Yorman Bazardo, rhp
6. Jeff Larish, 1b
7. Matt Joyce, of
8. Danny Worth, ss
9. Francisco Cruceta, rhp
10. Brandon Hamilton, rhp

Like most people out there, I was a bit surprised to see Cale Iorg that high. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus had him ranked #4, but those rankings came out while Cameron Maybin (#1) was Detroit property and Casey Crosby (#3) had his previous elbow ligament. There seems to be somewhat of a consensus between their sources that Cale Iorg is very very impressive. It's hard to argue with that notion, as there is next to no data out there on him. He played just a couple of weeks in Lakeland before missing the Hawaii league with a minor injury.

For a guy with next to no power, Scott Sizemore seems kind of high to me. Jeff Larish may seem low to some people, but as I pointed out Wednesday, it's justified. Matt Joyce performed well enough in Erie to raise some eyebrows, and all reports suggest he has a great arm. Danny Worth has been overrated by many fans after a supposed hot start this year, and Francisco Cruceta cracking the #9 spot shows just how depleted the farm system is.

Overall, I have no major gripes with this list. The most egregious omission would appear to be James Skelton, but I have heard hesitation that he deserves a catcher of the future tag.

Henning:
1. Rick Porcello, RHP, 6-5, 200, age 19
2. Cale Iorg, SS, 6-2, 175, age 22
3. Casey Crosby, LHP, 6-4, 195, age 19
4. Jeff Larish, 1B, 6-2, 200, age 25
5. Matt Joyce, RF, 6-2, 185, age 23
6. Danny Worth, SS, 6-1, 180, age 22
7. Scott Sizemore, 2B, 6 feet, 185, age 23
8. Michael Hollimon, SS, 6-1, 185, age 25
9. Jeff Gerbe, RHP, 6-3, 190, age 23
10. Clete Thomas, CF, 5-11, 195, age 24
11. Tony Giarratano, SS, 6-0, 180, age 25
12. Brent Dlugach, SS, 6-5, 200, age 24
13. Brent Clevlen, RF, 6-2, 190, age 24
14. Wilken Ramirez, OF, 6-2, 190, age 22
15. Joe Bowen, C, 6-1, 190, age 20
16. Devin Thomas, C, 5-10, 195, age 22
17. Audy Ciriaco, SS, 6-3, 195, age 20
18. Preston Larrison, RHP, 6-4, 235, age 27
19. Freddy Dolsi, RHP, 6 foot, 160 pounds, age 25
20. Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, 6-1, 160, age 24

The top eight, in no particular order, seem reasonable. Jeff Gerbe seems pretty high at #9, as I have a hard time seeing a guy bound for relief as the third-best pitcher in the organization. Clete Thomas had an okay year last year, but he is a guy with contact issues and limited power. Tony Giarratano and Brent Clevlen were both defense-first shortstops who have yet to return from labrum surgery. As such, they really don't belong in the discussion. Brent Clevlen's stock has taken a huge hit after terrible years in 2004, 2006, and 2007. It's spelled Wilkin. There is no way Joe Bowen belongs in this discussion at all, especially with the absence of Skelton. Preston Larrison is no longer a prospect, while Freddy Dolsi and Guillermo Moscoso are way too old for their levels.

I was trying to hold out until the motownsports.com fan rankings come out, but I will post my Top Ten today:

1. Rick Porcello
2. Yorman Bazardo
3. Mike Hollimon
4. Jeff Larish
5. James Skelton
6. Charlie Furbush
7. Matt Joyce
8. Danny Worth
9. Scott Sizemore
10. Virgil Vasquez

Porcello is obvious. Despite the full rotation, I do believe that Yorman Bazardo has the stuff and ability to crack the rotation in the event of the inevitable injury. It will be very important that the Tigers don't make a mistake and let him go this spring. Hollimon comes in over Larish because there are more possibilities for a middle infielder than a firstbaseman. I admit that Skelton and Furbush are probably too high, but there isn't much out there. Both had pretty good seasons this year, and I believe Skelton will forever be battling biases against his size as a catcher. Joyce's plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired, and as a corner outfield he needs to be doing better than just above average offensively. I'm still not sure Worth and Sizemore will hit enough, and Virgil Vasquez leaves a lot of balls up in the zone. I have Cale Iorg in at 15, although a top notch season this year will shoot him up where those in the organization apparently think he belongs. I'm confident in Casey Crosby's recovery, but do want to see some results or a positive prognosis before placing him high on the list. I just think the rust may be too hard to kick off.

Two more avoid arbitration
Finally, the Tigers avoided arbitration with Miguel Cabrera ($11.3 million) and Bobby Seay ($780,000). Both were right around what I expected. Seay was really an unsung hero last year, as he was arguably the team's best reliever, as he was finally utilized in an advantageous manner with lefties hitting just .209/.270/.275 against him.

Marcus Thames Avoids Arbitration

As reported on the Tigers official site and the MLB.com transactions page, the Tigers have avoided arbitration on Marcus Thames, signing him to a one-year deal. I cannot find the terms anywhere, but if I was to guess, I would say this is on the order of $1.5 million.

I would imagine Seay will sign shortly. The delay on Miguel Cabrera probably has to do with long term negotiations. The Tigers may bite the bullet and sign him for one year if things can't be worked out over the long term.

For an update, there still haven't been any terms disclosed on the contract. Believe it or not, a player of Thames' caliber could probably justify $5-8 million on the open market, so the deal will probably come at a discount.

In somewhat related news that I found out by doing a Google News search of "Thames," the River Thames apparently had flooding issues yesterday. It doesn't appear as if anybody is hurt, but I wish the best to our friends the Brits.

Danny Knobler is now reporting the deal is worth $1.275 million, a good deal for a player who could play a key role in the event of injury.

Keeping Jeff Larish in Perspective

By most Tigers' fans measures, Jeff Larish has become the Tigers' second best prospect. The first baseman put up solid numbers in Erie this past year in just his second professional season, but the bar is raised pretty high for someone who has nowhere else to move on the defensive spectrum. I don't think Tigers fans realize how uninspiring Jeff Larish is in the big picture.

Taking a look at the top 20 (by VORP) 1B in 2007, here are their offensive splits from their age 24 seasons:

Larish (AA) .267/.390/.515

Albert Pujols (MLB) .331/.415/.657
Prince Fielder n/a
Carlos Pena (MLB) .232/.316/.448
Ryan Howard (AA/AAA) .291/.369/.637
Mark Teixeira (MLB) .281/.370/.560
Todd Helton (MLB) .315/.380/.530
Derrek Lee (MLB) .281/.368/.507
Lance Berkman (MLB) .297/.388/.561 (AAA) .330/.476/.563
Adrian Gonzalez (MLB) .304/.362/.500
Dmitri Young (MLB) .310/.364/.481
Kevin Youkillis (AA/AAA) .285/.427/.409
James Loney n/a
Matt Stairs (AAA) .267/.347/.426
Justin Morneau (MLB) .237/.304/.437
Ryan Garko (AAA) .303/.384/.498
Casey Kotchman (MLB) .296/.372/.467
Paul Konerko (MLB) .298/.363/.481
Scott Hatteberg (AA/AAA) .242/.328/.386
Conor Jackson (MLB) .291/.368/.441
Adam LaRoche (MLB) .278/.333/.488

So at age 24, 15 of the top 20 first-basemen in baseball last year had reached the major leagues. In the case of Loney and Fielder, they are younger than Larish and have already established themselves as top flight major league hitters. You will also note that of those 15, 12 put up pretty good numbers in the majors with Morneau having an injury-plagued uncharacteristic down year. Of the five players who hadn't reached the majors, all had made it to AAA by this point in this career. Adjusting for era (Stairs and Hatteberg were 24 in the early 90's), only Scott Hatteberg was less impressive in his time in the minors with Stairs and Youkilis playing at roughly the same level as Larish.

Based on that, I'd say the odds are stacked against him at this point. "But he was just drafted in 2005! It's not his fault the Tigers have moved him slowly!" you could point out. Ignoring the fact that several players drafted in 2005 have already made big impacts at the big league level and the fact that Larish hasn't performed at a level to force the organization's hand, we can take a look at the AA performance of the above 20 1B's.

Pujols (skipped AA)
Fielder (20) .272/.356/.473
Pena (22) .299/.411/.533
Howard (24) .297/.374/.647
Teixeira (22) .316/.403/.591
Helton (22) .332/.424/.486
Lee (22) .280/.363/.570
Berkman (22) .306/.422/.555
Gonzalez (21) .283/.326/.393, .307/.371/.409
Young (21/22) .272/.325/.406, .292/.345/.455
Youkilis (23/24) .344/.450/.500, .327/.472/.465
Loney (20/21) .238/.311/.327, .284/.357/.419
Stairs - AA number not available... yes, he's that old
Morneau (21) .298/.353/.474
Garko (23) .331/.382/.523
Kotchman (21) .368/.419/.544
Konerko (20) .300/.393/.543
Hatteberg (22-24) 3 unspecacular seasons
Jackson (22) .301/.368/.456
LaRoche (23) .283/.379/.511

Larish stacks up a bit better here, until you throw in the fact that he was, in most cases, two years older than most of these guys when he was in AA.

Overall, the point of this is that he is not an elite 1B prospect by any stretch of the imagination. Even without Carlos Guillen signed through 2011, it would be tough to count on Larish to be a serviceable 1B for more than a year or two.

Robertson Locked Up

The Free Press is reporting Nate Robertson has signed a 3 year, 21.25 million dollar contract. This contract buys out two years of arbitration eligibility and one year of free agency. In my mind, this is a deserved contract. Even though Robertson has been around average in his time with the Tigers, left-handed pitchers are historically more expensive than their right-handed counterparts. This is the going rate for a left-handed starting pitcher, especially one who is strong in the community with a good head on his shoulders.

Using some of the procedures laid out in Vince Gennaro's Diamond Dollars (expect a review on that in the coming days and analysis of tools learned in the book over the coming year), I have estimated Nate Robertson to be worth roughly $29 million over the next three years if he was a free agent. By those calculations, this will be a good deal, even though he projects to be overpaid in 2010. I'll have more on those calculations in the coming days.

Marcus Thames, Bobby Seay, and Miguel Cabrera all the remaining arbitration eligible players.

Gold Mine!

I had stumbled upon the Tigers' media guide as a great reference last year. Yesterday, I did the same with all 30 media guides. Really, any information you may want on players (through a year ago) can be found in these guides.

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/media_guides/index.jsp

Based on the dates of some signings, I would imagine these are put up at the beginning of Spring Training. I would expect the 2008 versions to be released in roughly a month.

More Minor League Signings

Making the first news in a while, the Tigers announced the signings of 11 players yesterday, four of which have already been known. While such news would enable us to get away from the mainstream media revealing their collective ignorance of the performance enhancing drug or Hall of Fame debates, it's not likely that these players will contribute much to the Detroit Tigers as a whole.

We'll start with the guys who we've already known about I've already covered pitchers Francis Beltran, Marcelo Perez, and Jon Connolly. Dane Sardinha was announced several weeks ago, and he projects to be the team's third catcher as things stand right now. Sardinha was drafted by the Reds in 2000 as a player with great defensive polish. They banked on his bat developing, but it never happened. Throughout his professional career, Sardinha's offensive results have been putrid at best. Luckily, he will only be counted on if Vance Wilson's recovery from Tommy John Surgery requires a short term fix in April.

Pitchers Anastacio Martinez, Jeremy Johnson, and Ian Ostlund were all in the Tigers' system last year, before becoming six-year free agents. Martinez was picked up from Washington's system and has bounced around. He was a reliever and spot starter for Toledo towards the end of the season. I would expect him to do much of the same this year. Ostlund was originally drafted by the Tigers in 2001, and has served as a lefty reliever, bouncing between Erie and Toledo last season. Jeremy Johnson was hot stuff a few years ago before undergoing major shoulder surgery. He became a valuable part of Toledo's bullpen this past season. Scouts still aren't impressed with his repertoire and doubt he'll be a force with the big club.

Utility men Henry Mateo and Caonabo Cosme will offer much needed flexibility to Toledo and Erie, which are restricted to 23 and 24-man roster limits. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to offer anything to the Tigers. Jackson Melian will probably return in his Kirk Airoso role as Erie's DH and provide a stable bat to Erie's lineup. The history of Jackson Melian's prospect-hood is pretty interesting and might be worth an entry during these January doldrums.

Finally, Max St. Pierre returns after a one-year retreat from the organization that included a conversion to pitcher. I haven't heard for sure if the Tigers plan to use him at catcher, but I have to imagine St. Pierre will be donning the tools of ignorance given the team's lack of depth at the position.

Overall, these signings provide little in the way of potential for the Tigers' roster. The next news will likely deal with the arbitration cases of unsigned Tigers. Bobby Seay, Nate Robertson, and Miguel Cabrera all still need contracts. Players and teams will file for arbitration from January 5-15, exchanging figures on the 18^th before hearings occur the early part of February. No player has gone to arbitration in Dave Dombrowski's time here, and I don't expect that to change.

Clemens Worked Hard. So What?

It's not impossible. You do it with hard work. Ask any of my teammates. Ask anybody that's come here and done the work with me.

This is a great excuse for Roger Clemens, but unfortunately, I don't see how he can use hard work as proof that he never used steroids. See, anybody who knows anything about what steroids actually do to the body probably had extreme doubts when anybody uses the hard work excuse. Below is an excerpt from Will Carroll's book The Juice, undoubtedly the best of the books released in the past few years on steroids.

Testosterone, which is the primary active ingredient – in synthetic form – in any anabolic steroid, acts directly in muscle tissue. It increases the speed at which muscle cells are produced and repaired. This same action that stimulates protein synthesis also serves to inhibit protein degradation. This inhibition is known as the anti-catabolic effect (catabolism is a destructive metabolic process by which organisms convert substances into excreted compounds) and plays a major role in allowing the anabolic steroid user to train more often with heavy resistance. The user must also maintain a high-protein and fairly high-calorie diet during the training regimen.

A necessary component in the use of steroids, in order to realize gains in strength, muscle growth, and lean body mass, is heavy resistance training. Because of the anti-catabolic effect, the steroid user does not have to wait 48 hours for the muscles to recover from a previous bout of heavy resistance training. Instead of having to work the upper body one day and the lower body the next, the steroid user can work the full body every day with heavy resistance, without having to worry about the effects of muscle breakdown.

Mr. Clemens, if you were a hard worker and were able to work out more frequently, it is very possible it is steroids that enabled you to do that. That is what they are designed to do!!!

Do Number 1’s face Number 1’s? – Part 2

Last time I started to take a look at the assumption by many in the sports media that pitchers often go up against those in the same rotation spot as then, thereby predicting improvement for pitchers who move from being a team's #4 to #1. I've been working on a lengthy study to test this theory, especially after hearing many analysts describe the help that Dontrelle Willis will get from not having to go up against opposing aces anymore.

Last time, I showed that the opening day order of a starting rotation will rarely be in order of that season's performance level. This is due to several reasons, including injuries, veteran preference, matchup strategies in deploying the rotation, and surprises or disappointments that a player experiences. Of the 20 teams observed, though, nine opening day starters ended up being the team's best and four more ended up being the team's second-best starting pitcher. Chances are, if you are facing a team's opening day starter, you are facing one of their better pitchers.

Next, I wanted to take a look at the assumption that teams' rotations are actually aligned over the course of a season, allowing #1 starting pitchers to regularly face #1 starters and #4 starters to regularly face #4's. I did this by looking at the Tigers' 2007 opening day rotation and the starting pitchers that they faced in each of their starts. A Number 6 starter is defined as one who didn't start

Jeremy Bonderman (Opening Day Rotation: #1)

Faced #1: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #2: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #3: 2 times (8.3%)

Faced #4: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #5: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #6: 6 times (25.0%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 3.2625

Nate Robertson (Opening Day Rotation: #2)

Faced #1: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #2: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #3: 5 times (16.1%)

Faced #4: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #5: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #6: 12 times (38.7%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 2.3129

Justin Verlander (Opening Day Rotation: #3)

Faced #1: 8 times (25.0%)

Faced #2: 2 times (6.3%)

Faced #3: 6 times (18.8%)

Faced #4: 7 times (21.9%)

Faced #5 5 times (15.6%)

Faced #6: 4 times (12.5%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.0469

Mike Maroth (Opening Day Rotation: #4)

Faced #1: 4 times (30.8%)

Faced #2: 1 time (7.7%)

Faced #3: 1 time (30.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #5: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #6: 3 times (23.1%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.9615

Chad Durbin (Opening Day Rotation: #5)

Faced #1: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #2: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #3: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #5: 4 times (21.1%)

Faced #6: 3 times (15.8%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 2.4824

As this shows, it appears to be random as to which pitcher a starting pitcher will oppose. While Jeremy Bonderman faced #1 pitchers in 20.8% of his starts, Justin Verlander and Mike Maroth both faced the opposing team's ace more often in their starts. Nate Robertson, the #2 starter, faced easily the weakest starting pitchers of anybody over the course of the year.

Several aspects lead to the randomness of pitching matchups.

-Injuries: Justin Verlander is the only Tigers pitcher to spend the entire season in the rotation. Injuries in a rotation can cause a pitcher to be moved up a day, back a day, or inserted into the rotation at the most convenient spot. With how often pitchers miss starts, it's a wonder that anybody could begin to think #1's face #1's.

-Rotation Style: The role of the fifth starter varies by manager. Many skippers will go 1-5, while several will use their fifth starter only during streaks of five or more games without an off-day. Chad Durbin's first start was pushed back to the sixth game of the season, so the #5 starter was facing the Blue Jays' #2. Different managers deploy their starters in different ways, and it is impossible to say that pitchers will be aligned based on their opening day spot in the rotation.

-Weather: All it takes is one rain-out to move a rotation up or back a day. In the case of the Mariners and Indians last April, their rotation was reset after a snowy weekend off. Postponements lead to another rotation juggler: double-headers. Spot starters come up from the minors, possibly facing that day's starter. Overall, the weather can play a large role in rotations becoming out of sync.

-The All-Star Break: The most boring three days in the baseball season also help to throw this myth into disarray. Rotations are frequently reset after the all-star break. Some team's aces go the first game after the break, while some aces are given a few days to recover from their All Star appearance. I assumed that there may be a chance that an All Star pitcher would face more aces after the break, but Justin Verlander faced just three of his eight after the All Star Break.

-The Schedule: Some teams play six games in a week; some play seven. Once again, teams' rotations get out of sync.

If teams played one game every day in domes, and pitchers never ever got hurt, you could make the case that pitchers at the bottom of a rotation have an easier time. The problem is they don't, and as such, anybody who uses a pitcher's spot in the rotation as an excuse probably doesn't know what they are talking about.

Arbitration Day and More Signings

Midnight tonight brings about the deadline for tendering arbitration eligible players a contract. Seven Tigers, listed below are up for arbitration this year:

-Tim Byrdak (Signed $715,000 contract, avoiding arbitration)
-Miguel Cabrera
-Chad Durbin (non-tendered)
-Nate Robertson
-Bobby Seay
-Marcus Thames
-Dontrelle Willis

I will update this as the day goes along.

If I had to guess, I would say all will be tendered a contract. Chad Durbin is probably the most doubtful of the bunch, as his swingman role can be easily replaced by Yorman Bazardo. There seems to be a sentiment that Marcus Thames is expendable now, but so long as Jacque Jones and Curtis Granderson are roming the outfield, it will be nice to have two right-handed outfielders on the bench. Ryan Raburn can't platoon with both of them.

Also, Baseball America's much improved Transactions section is reporting Detroit has signed relievers Francis Beltran and Marcelo Perez as well as re-upping starter Jon Connolly.

Beltran is a former highly rated Cubs prospect. His name may soun familiar, because he was part of the package sent from Chicago to Montreal in the Nomar Garciaparra trade. He spent the next couple of seasons in and out of Montreal/Washington's bullpen, and was a reliever for the Orioles' triple-A Norfolk Tides this past season. Old scouting reports I see of Beltran tell me he fits the mold of Cruceta and Bautista with a fastball in the mid-high 90's and command problems. He's had a ton of shoulder problems throughout the years, so I am not certain if the fastball is still that high. Beltran will probably be spending the year in Toledo's bullpen.

Perez has spent his entire career in the Mets system, and was in AA last season. A righthander with low-mid 90's heat, he has always put up good strikeout numbers in the Mets system. Perez will be a candidate for the Toledo and Erie pens in spring training.

Jon Connolly returns to the system, where he will likely be filling into the Erie/Toledo rotation role he filled this past year.

I'd expect a much larger wave of free agents to be announced in the coming weeks. It really won't make too much sense to make predictions of the Toledo rosters until those guys are announced.


edit:
No sooner do I post this than I realize that Chad Durbin was the only non-tender today. Overall, this makes sense. As I mentioned above, Yorman Bazardo seems to be slotted into the sixth starter/swingman role and will probably do a better job at it.

Do Number 1's face Number 1's?

As one of the biggest moves in the Tigers' 107 year history, the Miguel Cabrera trade has been covered to death by Lee and Bill and everybody else already, but I wanted to tackle one piece of analysis I've heard a few times regarding Dontrelle Willis. There seems to be a sentiment that moving out of the #1 spot in the rotation will help him because he won't be facing the opposing #1 starters. This got me thinking, "Do #1's really face #1's, #2's face #2's, and so on." Such an assertion makes three assumptions:

-The best pitcher is the team's #1, the second best pitcher is the team's #2, etc.
-The pitchers continue to go 1-2-3-4-5 in the rotation and always face the opposing team's pitcher of the same rotation rank.
-This is a bit of stretch, but the other two assumptions only take care of win-loss record. Maybe facing tougher pitching makes a pitcher pitch worse.

In order to take a look at these assumptions, I've utilized Support Neutral Lineup-Adjusted Value Above Replacement Level (It's that simple!). SNLVAR looks at the likelihood of winning a game and the pitchers' contribution to that, adjusts for opponents, and compares to a waiver-wire pitcher.

I've looked at all the Tigers opponents this year to see their opening day rotations and their actual rotations. For the opening day rotations, I've defined a #1 pitcher is defined as the opening day starter, #2 as the next starter. In some cases, because of rain or days off, a team didn't go 1-2-3-4-5, so the first five unique starters are defined in that case. The actual rotation is defined as the top 5 pitchers by SNLVAR on the team.

Baltimore
Opening Day
1. Erik Bedard
2. Daniel Cabrera
3. Jaret Wright
4. Adam Loewen
5. Steve Trachsel

Actual
1. Erik Bedard 6
2. Jeremy Guthrie 4.8
3. Daniel Cabrera 3
4. Steve Trachsel 2.9 (combined with Cubs stats)
5. Brian Burres

Wright and Loewen were lost for the year early on. Guthrie came on and performed admirably. What did we learn from the Orioles?

-Injuries happen, and can alter rotations from the get-go.
-Trades also happen. Like in the case of Trachsel, a regular member of the rotation is replaced by somebody from the farm

Boston
1. Curt Schilling
2. Josh Beckett
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Julian Tavarez

Actual
1. Josh Beckett 6.2
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka 5.1
3. Curt Schilling 4.3
4. Tim Wakefield 3.9
5. Julian Tavarez 1.1

Well, I see how they were able to stay successful this year. What did we learn from the Red Sox?

-Sometimes a pitcher other than the opening day starter emerges as the ace.

New York (A)
Opening Day
1. Carl Pavano
2. Andy Pettite
3. Mike Mussina
4. Kei Igawa
5. Darrel Rasner

Actual
1. Chien-ming Wang 6
2. Andy Pettite 5.3
3. Mike Mussina 2.6
4. Roger Clemens 2.6
5. Phil Hughes 1.5

When did they sign Clemens? I totally missed that one. I must not have turned on ESPN at any point in June or July. What did we learn from the Yankees?

-Once in a while, a team's best pitcher will start on the DL. This means that he can be placed anywhere into the rotation.
-In addition, rotations are set a couple weeks in advance of the season. When Wang was injured, rather than moving everybody around Torre decided to put Carl Pavano in his place.
-Phil Hughes teaches us something about service time. A player is a free agent after six years of service time, which is counted in days. Service time is taken out of 172 days, while the season is 182 days long. Often a player will be held out for those 11 days to buy an extra year of time before free agency. This can also apply to whether or not the best five pitchers are in the rotation.
-Failed experiments like Kei Igawa can throw a rotation into flux.

Tampa Bay
Opening Day
1. Scott Kazmir
2. Jae Seo
3. James Shields
4. Casey Fossum
5. Edwin Jackson

Actual
1. James Shields 5.8
2. Scott Kazmir 5.5
3. Edwin Jackson 1.5
4. Andrew Sonnanstine 1.2
5. Jason Hammel 0.9

Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine, Price, and Garza will be a good rotation by the end of 2008. This team is going places. It's really too bad the Rays aren't in the NL Central. What did we learn from Tampa Bay?

-We have another young pitcher emerging from the #3 spot.
-Jae Seo and Casey Fossum were terrible, again throwing the rotation into flux.

Toronto
Opening Day
1. Roy Hallday
2. AJ Burnett
3. Gustavo Chacin
4. Tomo Okha
5. Josh Towers

Actual
1. Roy Halladay 6.7
2. Dustin McGowan 4.3
3. AJ Burnett 4.3
4. Shaun Marcum 4.3
5. Jesse Litsch 3

Did the Rios for Lincecum rumors confuse anybody else? If Bristol, CT, was closer to Toronto, the Worldwide Leader would be telling us how great this rotation was last year. What did we learn from the Jays?

-Sometimes the ace is the ace. I have a hunch we'll see Roy Halladay as a supporting case for rotation slot mattering when I look at Bonderman's opponents.
-Again veteran garbage blocks better pitchers early in the season.

Chicago (A)
1. Jose Contreras
2. Jon Garland
3. Mark Buehrle
4. Javier Vasquez
5. John Danks

Actual
1. Mark Buehrle 5.6
2. Javier Vasquez 5.2
3. Jon Garland 4.3
4. Jose Contreras 1.0
5. Gavin Floyd 0.9

With a rotation like that, it's no wonder the Tigers went out and got Miguel Cabrera to keep up. What did we learn from Ozzie's smart-ballers?

-The top 4 pitchers were essentially regarded as equal before the season. Sometimes there isn't a discernible difference between the pitchers in the rotation, so you really aren't at an advantage facing the #4 starter over the #1.

Cleveland
Opening Day
1. CC Sabathia
2. Jake Westbrook
3. Jeremy Sowers
4. Paul Byrd
5. Fausto Carmona

Actual
1. Fausto Carmona 6.8
2. CC Sabathia 6.5
3. Jake Westbrook 3.3
4. Paul Byrd 2.5
5. Aaron Laffey 0.8

I really really really wish Fausto Carmona had stayed in Buffalo all year. What did we learn from the Indians?

-The best pitcher on the staff may not even be in the rotation from the get-go because of options and lack of trust in young pitchers.
-I'll get into the rain/snow outs in the next segments, but it's needless to say that rotations get thrown out of order early on.
-The Tigers may have won the division if Lee and Sowers had been serviceable and healthy.

Detroit
Opening Day
1. Jeremy Bonderman
2. Nate Robertson
3. Justin Verlander
4. Mike Maroth
5. Chad Durbin

Actual
1. Justin Verlander 5.6
2. Nate Robertson 2.8
3. Jeremy Bonderman 2.4
4. Chad Durbin 1.7
5. Andrew Miller 0.8

I'll do the Tigers too. You could make a case the rotation was an opponent this year. What did we learn from the Tigers?

-Jim Leyland likes to order his rotation in such a way to keep hard and soft-tossers alternated. This means the ace goes in the #3 hole between the soft-tossing lefties. Again, the pitchers aren't always placed in the rotation in order by their ability.

Kansas City
Opening Day
1. Gil Meche
2. Odalis Perez
3. Zach Greinke
4. Jorge de la Rosa
5. Brandon Duckworth

Actual
1. Gil Meche 5.3
2. Brian Bannister 4.6
3. Zach Greinke 2.2
4. Jorge de la Rosa 1.6
5. Odalis Perez 1.1

What did we learn from the Royals?

-Teams fall in love with spring training performance. Bannister was left off the opening day roster because of a bad spring, but emerged as the second-best starter. Spring training performance can skew an opening day rotation.

Minnesota
Opening Day
1. Johan Santana
2. Boof Bonser
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Carlos Silva
5. Sidney Ponson

Actual
1. Johan Santana 6.3
2. Carlos Silva 5
3. Scott Baker 3.1
4. Boof Bonser 2.4
5. Matt Garza 2

And you thought you could go five seconds without seeing Johan Santana's name. Shame on you! What did we learn from Terry Ryan's fetish for wash ups?

-Veteran floatsum continues to clog rotations.
-The ace is sometimes an ace.
-Johan Santana might be traded to the Red Sox, no maybe the Yankees, no maybe the Red Sox, no maybe the Yankees. Oh wait, who are the Twins?

Los Angeles (A)
Opening Day
1. John Lackey
2. Kelvim Escobar
3. Ervin Santana
4. Joe Saunders
5. Dustin Moseley

Actual
1. John Lackey 6.9
2. Kelvim Escobar 6.3
3. Jered Weaver 4.1
4. Joe Saunders 1.7
5. Ervin Santana 1.3

Does anybody else remember when Ervin Santana was named Johan before age-gate? What did we learn from the American League West's powerhouse?

-The ace is sometimes the ace.
-A rotation can have two ace caliber pitchers.
-Again, one of the team's better pitchers started on the disabled list, meaning you don't really know which rotation spot they will go into.

Oakland
Opening Day
1. Dan Haren
2. Joe Blanton
3. Rich Harden
4. Chad Gaudin
5. Joe Kennedy

Actual
1. Dan Haren 6.3
2. Joe Blanton 5.9
3. Chad Gaudin 3.8
4. Joe Kennedy 2.3
5. Lenny DiNardo 1.5

What did we learn from Oakland?

-Sometimes the ace is the ace.
-This stuff really isn't that important in the grand scheme of things. Some people just die to young.

Seattle
Opening Day
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jarrod Washburn
3. Miguel Batista
4. Horacio Ramirez
5. Jeff Weaver

Actual
1. Felix Hernandez 4.3
2. Miguel Batista 4.2
3. Jarrod Washburn 3.5
4. Jeff Weaver 1.3
5. Cha Seung Baek 0.8

It's really good to know Billy Bavasi got fair value for Rafael Soriano? Aside from knowing to pay attention to Horacio Ramirez's peripheral statistics, what did we learn from the Mariners?

-Sometimes the ace is the ace.

Texas
Opening Day
1. Kevin Milwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Brandon McCarthy
4. Robinson Tejeda
5. Jamie Wright

Actual
1. Brandon McCarthy 1.9
2. Kevin Milwood 1.6
3. Kameron Loe 0.9
4. Vicente Padilla 0.6
5. Jamie Wright 0.6

What did we learn from the Rangers?

-Autopilot could have cracked the Rangers rotation.
-Sometimes ace is a relative term. Even if you have to face the opposing team's best, you can get the occasional break.

Atlanta
Opening Day
1. John Smoltz
2. Tim Hudson
3. Chuck James
4. Mark Redman
5. Kyle Davies

Actual
1. Tim Hudson 7.9
2. John Smoltz 7.0
3. Chuck James 4.3
4. Buddy Carlyle 1.1
5. Kyle Davies 1.0

Mark Redman is really the John Larroquette of baseball. Yeah, he had some success a while ago. You thought you had seen the last of him before you suddenly see him in a rotation somewhere with a bit of hype. Before you check back, the sitcom was a failure and was cancelled. What did we learn from the Braves?

-Even when the rotation is about right, the top two may be out of order.

On another note, the fact that Hudson and Smoltz both would have led the American league is interesting. There was a lot of offensive talent in the NL East last year. Since SNLVAR is adjusted by opposing talent, I wonder if that inflated the numbers. On top of that, I have to wonder if it's the NL East's pitching being bad or the hitting being good that is causing this. This may have an effect on the numbers we should expect from Cabrera and Renteria this year. I'll check in on that before the season.

New York Mets
Opening Day
1. Tom Glavine
2. Orlando Hernandez
3. John Maine
4. Oliver Perez
5. Mike Pelfrey

Actual
1. Tom Glavine 5.6
2. John Maine 5.4
3. Orlando Hernandez 4.6
4. Oliver Perez 4.0
5. Jorge Sosa 1.9

What did we learn from the Mets?

-The starting third baseman can be blamed for the pitching woes in the MVP voting.
-There is virtually no difference between the 1-4 starters, suggesting again that it may not make a difference if you face the #1 or #4 starter on a regular basis.

Philadelphia
Opening Day
1. Brett Myers
2. Cole Hamels
3. Adam Eaton
4. Jamie Moyer
5. Zach Segovia

Actual
1. Cole Hamels 5.2
2. Jamie Moyer 3.2
3. Kyle Kendrick 3.2
4. Kyle Lohse 1.3
5. Jon Lieber 1.2

Brett Myers was moved to the closer role early on. Segovia was the #5 starter the first week, and was never saw the big leagues again.

-Injuries can decimate a rotation.
-A young ace may not get the chance to be the #1 starter.

I'm going to skip Washington, as I've already used my bad pitching jokes on Texas.

Milwaukee
Opening Day
1. Ben Sheets
2. Chris Capuano
3. Jeff Suppan
4. Dave Bush
5. Claudio Vargas

Actual
1. Ben Sheets 4.1
2. Yovani Gallardo 3.6
3. Jeff Suppan 3
4. Dave Bush 2.2
5. Chris Capuano 2

What did we learn from Milwaukee?
-Bad defense can hurt a solid rotation. They need Brandon Inge more than they care to admit.
-Service time jumbling can lead to a rookie ace joining the team mid-season.

St. Louis
Opening Day
1. Chris Carpenter
2. Kip Wells
3. Braden Looper
4. Adam Wainright
5. Anthony Reyes

Actual
1. Adam Wainright 5.9
2. Braden Looper 3.8
3. Brad Thompson 1.9
4. Joel Pineiro 1.7
5. Todd Wellemeyer 0.4

What did we learn from the Cardinals?

-Bitterness takes more than 14 months to cure.
-An undisputed ace hurting his elbow can kill a rotation.
-So can Kip Wells.
-Don't drink and drive.
-Wearing glasses can fool the MSM into thinking you are a genius.

The overall totals
#1 starters started the season as:

#1 starters: 9
#2 starters: 3
#3 starters: 4
#4 starters: 1
#5 starters: 1
Out of the rotation: 1

To summarize what we learned from all of the teams,

-Managers have their best pitcher pitch on the correct day to start the season more than any other rotation rank.
-Pitchers aren't always placed in the rotation based on their ranking within the rotation, but instead for other strategic mixing and matching.
-Getting an extra year of control of a player can keep a young ace out of the rotation early on.
-Young pictures are underrated by managers coming out of spring training, while the flop of veteran floatsum can send a rotation into flux.
-Regular pitchers like Jered Weaver and Chien-ming Wang can start the season out of the rotation on the disabled list, out of their natural spot in the rotation.
-Injuries (Carpenter) can kill a rotation.
-So can Kip Wells.
-Phil Mickelson should have tried out for the Rangers instead.

Overall, I will conclude that the #1 pitcher is the correct pitcher more often than other times, but pitchers are not usually ranked in order of their actual effectiveness. Next, I will check to see if #1's actually face #1's.

Tigers Acquire Miguel Cabrera: I'm happy

I know it's not fantasy baseball, but when I combined several projection systems for my fantasy league last year considering value over the next 5 years, Miguel Cabrera came out #1. He was above Pujols, Rodriguez, and the rest of the league. I had a feeling the Tigers may try to target him, especially considering the complete lack of 3B in the system. Everybody else has covered this to the max, and I have to admire the front office for having the guts to make this deal. This gives the Tigers a Hall of Fame caliber player for as long as they are willing to pay him.

In other news related to this site, things will still be slow for a while. I recently had computer problems where I had lost about five of those 40-man reports I had done. Looking back on them, I found them bland and below the standard of which I want to run this thing. I'm in the process of gathering tons of data and tons of new stats and performing my own analysis that I will be putting up periodically until the season starts.

The 40 Man Roster in 40 days: Tony Giarratano

Tony Giarratano was drafted in the third round out of Tulane University in 2003, a draft whose first five rounds yielded Kyle Sleeth, Jay Sborz, Giarratano, Josh Rainwater, and Danny Zell. Selected with a reputation of being a defensive wizard with limited offensive skills, Giarratano surprised all with his .328/.369/.476 performance in Oneonta. The offensive outburst moved him to the top of most prospect charts after his debut season.

In 2004, Giarratano picked up right where he left off, hitting .285/.383/.352 in pitching friendly. After being promoted to Lakeland, he preceded to hit the cover off the ball at .376/.421/.505, enough to keep him near the top of the prospect lists at #6 in Baseball America's team ranking. At this point, some worried about his dependency on batting average, suggesting that the season was a fluke caused by luck with balls in play. Others worried about the upcoming jump to AA, a pitfall for many prospect. The aspect that has hindered Giarratano the most began to creep up in 2004 when he had a season-ending partial dislocation in his non-throwing shoulder. Regardless, "Tony G." got the "Shortstop of the Future" tag placed upon him after an impressive first two years in the pros.

The shortstop of the future cries got even longer in 2005 when Giarratano was brought up to fill in for an injured Carlos Guillen during the summer. Still, he did not hit well in his time with the Tigers (.143/.234/.214) nor with the Seawolves (.266/.334/.373). The defensive skills remained, though. Despite the 21 errors combined between the two levels, Baseball America tagged Tony G. as the top defensive infielder in the system.

Another slow start and injuries slowed down Giarratano in his attempt to repeat Erie in 2006. In just 269 at bats, Tony G. hit a disappointing (.283/.340/.390) in his time at Erie before coming down with a minor wrist injury in June and finally suffering a season-ending ACL tear in his right knee. At last recovered from the knee injury, Tony went under the knife again in Spring training, having surgery on a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.

Injuries:
This has already been covered, but unlike Bazardo (who did have a short stint on San Antonio's 2006 Disabled list... whoops), Giarratano's career has been slowed to a screeching halt. It's hard to say which injury is the biggest worry. The shoulder dislocation is usually the result of a blunt force to the shoulder, so one would be led to believe it's not a worry. The problem comes with the fact that after surgery to replace such an injury, the joint is less stable, and more likely to be injured again. I don't remember exactly how he hurt his knee, but most ACL injuries are the result of landing awkwardly, over-extending the leg while running, or blunt trauma to the knee. Like a shoulder location, one who has already torn one ACL is more likely to tear the other. We still have not seen Tony G. play since the injury, but he should have had plenty of time to rehabilitate the leg. The labrum injury worries me most. While not the kiss of death for shortstops as it once was for pitchers, a defense-first prospect cannot afford to have difficulties throwing the ball when he has problems hitting in the first place. The injuries have certainly put a damper on the career of a guy who got off to such a great start, and worst of all, these injuries tend to be chronic.

Service time:
2005: 26 days
2006: 34 days
2007: 172 days

Time on the Big League disabled list counts. Giarratano was brought up at the end of 2006 to allow the Tigers more options on the playoff roster, and was placed on the DL in 2007 to save an option for a recovery year in 2008.

Options:
Used options in 2005 and 2006.
One remaining

Again, being on the Major League DL in this year will enable Tony G. to head to Erie or Toledo to get back on track.

Present Status:
If all had gone well, the Edgar Renteria trade would have been unnecessary, as Giarratano could have been a decent shortstop for a couple of years. Clearly all did not go well. With the onset of injuries, struggles in Erie, and the emergence of Danny Worth, Tony G. may have to settle into some kind of a utility role. Out of options after 2008, you have to think the Tigers may try to find a way to sneak him through waivers this offseason while his value is down to avoid a possibly tough decision in 2009. At this point, it's hard to envision Giarratano as a starter on the Detroit Tigers. The 2003 draft has proven to be a disaster for the organization. Only Jordan Tata, Virgil Vasquez, and Tony Giarratano currently remain on the 40 man roster. First round pick Kyle Sleeth has not recovered from his Tommy John surgery 30 months ago. Second round pick Jay Sborz can't throw a strike or graduate past short season ball. Fourth round pick Josh Rainwater is an A-ball swing man. While Giarratano proved to be a find early on, constant injuries have derailed a once promising career.

The 40 Man Roster in 40 Days: Yorman Bazardo

Today, I will start a segment that will take a brief look at each player on the 40 man roster. I will start each with a look at their career to date, injury history, proceed to where they currently stand in the organization, derive their service time and option information, and finally look to their future as Detroit Tigers. Today we will start with pitcher Yorman Bazardo.

History:
Signed as an undrafted free agent out of Venezuela on July 19, 2000, by Dave Dombrowski's Florida Marlins, Bazardo did not debut until 2001 in the Venezuelan Summer League. As a kid just turning 17, he pitched very well in his 70 1/3 innings of work posting an ERA of 2.43, striking out 62, walking just 18, and only allowing 59 hits. It was former Marlins scout, now Tigers scout Miguel Garcia who discovered Bazardo.

2002 found Bazardo moved to the bullpen for the Short Season A Affiliate of the Marlins in Jamestown. Again, he showed great command in his 36.1 innings, walking only 6 and posting a 2.72 ERA. He moved onto A-ball at the age of 19 in Greensboro, again only walking 26 in 130 innings, but only striking out 70. He posted a solid 3.12 ERA and allowed his first professional home runs during this season. After the season, Baseball America ranked him #5 in the Marlins system.

Bazardo continued to climb the ladder to the Florida State League in 2004, and again did not disappoint. In 154 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.27 ERA, walking only 30. He impressed so much, he was named the third best prospect in the Marlins organization after the season. Being Rule 5 eligible after the season, he was added to the Marlins' 40 man roster.

2005 found more success for this young pitcher. Turning 21 midway through the season, he put up a 3.99 ERA at AA Carolina, earning a one-day promotion to the Marlins before being shipped to Seattle in a deal for reliever Ron Villone. Bazardo spent a year and a half in the hitter friendly Texas league with less impressive results before the Mariners designated him for assignment in 2007 to make room for Jeff Weaver. This enabled the Tigers to pick him up for struggling outfielder Jeff Frazier.

2007 got off to an inauspicious start for Yorman, as he was rocked in his first start. Ultimately, he settled down and pitched well both in Toledo's rotation and in his brief stay with the big club. Continuing his long-standing trend of low walk totals, low strikeouts, and a low ERA, Bazardo has positioned himself nicely for a shot in 2008.

Injuries:
It has been seven years since he signed his first professional contract, and Bazardo has never been on the Disabled list. He has as clean of a bill of health as any pitcher in the system.

Service Time:
2005: 1 day
2007: 44 days
Total: 0 years, 45 days (0.045)

Options:
Used options in 2005, 2006, and 2007.
None remaining

Age vs. career clock:
The acquisition of Yorman Bazardo from Seattle, and his ability to progress from waiver bate into the 2008 plans makes the trade for flailing former third round pick Jeff Frazier an exceptional one as is. Bazardo's status as a player in his early 20's running out of options made the deal doable, and the ability of Dave Dombrowski to exploit that status as a cheap pickup shows that he is able to recognize the gap between age and career clock for many Latin players.

It is widely assumed that players on the whole improve mightily in their early 20's and peak around 27, level off until around 30, and fall off afterwards. A conceptual graph showing typical career progress is shown below. Obviously most players don't follow this trend, and not all players are equal.



The graph is obviously not taken from any particular set of data, and is primarily for illustration purposes only. The next chart shows career progress for players based not on their age, but instead on their professional timeline. You can see where players who sign at 16 will have to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft and will run out of options earlier. Rather than protect them, some teams will be impatient and make them available on the cheap. When teams are willing to give young players away before they reach their potential because of the disconnect between age and career clock, it becomes something that can be exploited. The Tigers did that in acquiring Bazardo last winter. This is something I may look further at later if I see any trends in how these players are valued.

Present Status:
Bazardo has the combination of playing well in 2007, proving himself in his cup of coffee, and being out of options that pretty much assures him of a spot on the 2008 Detroit Tigers. What role he has will depend upon which role he is needed to fill. With a pitching staff having more question marks than Matthew Lesko's wardrobe, Bazardo should settle in and pitch well regardless of if it is as a starter, swingman, or back of the bullpen pitcher. At just 23 with durability, a solid track record, and a quality arsenal, Yorman Bazardo is one of the most underrated players in the Tigers' organization.

No Worries

Times have changed in Detroit. For so long, the Tigers were sellers, sending established players off to other organizations in return for players who might help down the line when the team was to be competitive.

That was before 2006.

It's certainly a big adjustment for the Tigers and their faithful. For so long, the hopes rested in the future. The improvement of the big league team means that the days of penny pinching and praying for prospects to pan out are over. As if that wasn't true this time last year when Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Clagget were shipped to the evil empire for Gary Sheffield, it certainly became evident when Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez were sent off to Atlanta for Edgar Renteria in a deal timed in such a way that it seemed to be agreed upon in September.

While this feeling of being among the league's elite should be great, some of the fan reaction to this trade reflects that some of the pre-2006 attachment to our prospects still lingers. This is not unjustified, as this resurgence definitely would not have occurred without the help of the likes of Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and others developed within the Tigers organization.

Here's why you should not worry about this trade.

Jair Jurrjens is a guy I have been high on for a while. Always putting up great numbers against guys older than him, he has always been a dark horse candidate to be a solid pitcher at the big league level. A late-summer surge got him to the Major Leagues, and Jurrjens pitched well in his stay, fooling hitters with his off speed stuff and being aggressive in the strike zone, leading to few walks (11 in 30 2/3 IP), few strikeouts (just 13), but rarely decent contact against him (only 24 hits).

The biggest strike against Jurrjens is the same one against the pitching prospect dealt this time last year: his health. After leaving his start against the Yankees with a painful pop in the back of his shoulder, his future was in doubt. That is why this is trade is a good risk. Jurrjens was already in a position where he was on the brink of never being a productive pitcher again. If you want to play a fun game, look up rotator cuff injuries to pitchers, when they occurred, and their statistics after the injury. The names Wade Miller, Ben McDonald, Robb Nen, and many others whose careers never got back on track will come up. This is not to say that Jurrjens is definitely going to get hurt, but he is an increased risk and it was a good move to cash in on him while he had value.

Gorkys Hernandez is an incredible talent, and has drawn rave reviews from the three people I get most of my prospect prognostication from: Mark Anderson (Tigstown.com), Kevin Goldstein, and Nate Silver (BaseballProspectus.com). All that said, you can still go back six years to the Tigers' last Venezuelan hyped toolsy player was a teenager. While Omar Infante wasn't getting near the reviews, you can see how a toolsy, non-dominant star prospect's star can diminish, especially considering Infante isn't really a flop.

Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens, believe it or not, are examples of why this trade should not be a problem. After years of struggling to produce talent from the Carribean, the Tigers have found Jair Jurrjens in Curacao, and Gorkys Hernandez is the first of what should be a large wave of Venezuelan talent from the team's new facilities there. Increased talent coming from Latin America should do wonders in gathering depth of talent in the system.

Edgar Renteria has had an interesting career. At times, he has been among the best shortstops in the league. His WARP totals range from 7.8 in 2003 to 1.5 in his forgettable 2005 season. The verdict of this trade will depend on if we get the 2003, 2006-2007 Renteria or the 2005 version.

In short, trades like the Renteria and Sheffield deals are merely signs that the Tigers are in a brand new position, and the role of prospects has changed. It's easy to get attached to prospects, especially after years of losing. With drafts like the last three and the team's increased presence internationally, this is something Dave Dombrowski can continue to do without sacrificing the future.

More on the Pen

Another reliever with options got sent down instead of Jason Grilli. A lot of griping has gone on about the bullpen this year, and there was a large demand for adding to the bullpen at the trading deadline. Of course, if the best seven relievers were on the team, the problem would be slightly alleviated. I wanted to update the Win expectancy numbers from two weeks ago, and try to pick out the best bullpen.

Todd Jones 1.161
Bobby Seay 0.965
Joel Zumaya 0.662 (Before today)
Chad Durbin 0.438
Tim Byrdak 0.007
Yorman Bazardo -0.016
Eulogio De La Cruz -0.030
Aquilino Lopez -0.044
Jose Capellan -0.067
Macay McBride -0.127
Zach Miner -0.230
Fernando Rodney -0.276
Jason Grilli -0.620

I know I've turned this place into a Grilli bash fest, but one has to wonder what he has to do to leave the team. Granted, guys I've been trumpeting like Bazardo, Lopez, Capellan, and now Miner have also been bad. Fernando Rodney has moved up this list significantly since the last time. Bazardo is probably low because he's been placed into such low leverage situations so far.

One more thing i wanted to show was the leverage calculation that BP does. Basically, a player with a leverage of 1 is brought into average situations. Higher than one and a player is brought into situations with the game on the line, and lower than one and they are brought into mopup roles. This will give us an idea of how relievers are being used.

Todd Jones 1.83
Fernando Rodney 1.54
Joel Zumaya 1.34
Zach Miner 1.29
Macay McBride 1.28
Tim Byrdak 1.24
Chad Durbin 1.20
Jose Capellan 1.16
Jason Grilli 0.95
Bobby Seay 0.82
Aquilino Lopez 0.67
Yorman Bazardo 0.42
Eulogio De La Cruz 0.23

Grilli was much lower last year, but still should be down in the Bazardo DLC I'd really like to see more Bazardo, and Bobby Seay should be used much more often over Byrdak. The good news is that September will bring about all of the castoffs from Toledo. Hopefully guys like Capellan, Bazardo and De La Cruz get opportunities in tight spots, especially if Zumaya isn't 100%, which he appeared not to be today.

Other Thoughts
Ryan Raburn should be in the starting lineup, especially in days like today when Sean Casey is DH-ing. There's no excuse for leaving a hot bat out of a struggling lineup two straight days.

Part of me wonders if Gary Sheffield plays another game. If he retires with the shoulder problem, the battle over who gets the last two years of that contract could get interesting and heated.

It would be nice if Jeff Larish got a bit of an audition this September. If he could show he belongs in the bigs, the team could save some big money in the off-season going after a free agent.

This is the second straight season Curtis Granderson's bat has come to a screeching halt towards the end of August. The slump isn't long enough to be considered significant yet, but it's getting to the point where worry needs to kick in. He really is an important part of this lineup.

Porcello and Selig

It's been well documented how wise the Tigers have been the past few years in their draft selections early on. The money being spent on premium draft picks, on the surface, is just a mere fraction of what mediocre free agents are getting on the market. That point has been drilled to death for months. I want to take a different look at this draft.

Let's take two scenarios for Rick Porcello:

1.) Rick Porcello signs with a Major League baseball team, a team likely to protect its significant investment. In this scenario, let's assume it takes him 2-3 years to crack the big leagues and an additional year to become a star player. As a star pitcher, he could potentially be the face of the team and the face of baseball in the process, growing it's popularity and improving the overall talent level in the Major Leagues. The better the talent, the better the game...

2.) Rick Porcello doesn't sign with a Major League team. He goes to the University of North Carolina, playing under a college baseball coach (a profession known for its sacrificing young arms to win games). Porcello's arm tires his sophomore year and undergoes shoulder surgery, never returning to his talented form. The game loses a potential star, and he flames out in somebody's minor league system.

Which scenario is better for Major League Baseball? If Bud was truly looking out for the best interests of the game, he would prefer scenario 1, correct?

It's time to get over this notion that Bud Selig represents the game's best interests. It simply isn't true, and never was. He is the owner's representative, and simply represents the owners' best interest. Major League Baseball's best interests are no higher on his priority list than Scott Boras' or Donald Fehr's.


On another note, I'll be missing the first part of tonight's game, marking this the second time I've missed a star prospect's debut in the past week. Also, the team is on a five game losing streak when I don't catch the game, and a five game winning streak when I do. Hopefully that reverses itself tonight.

The Bullpen

Especially of late, the 2007 season has been a slight disappointment after the magical 2006 affair. While the offense has been at times dominant, the pitching has taken a turn for the worse. Given that the pitching is considered the young core of the team, this has been a tremendous disappointment in a lot of ways.

The bullpen, in particular, has taken a big step back. In order to take a look at this, I'm going to look at some of the Win Expectancy numbers from the guys at Baseball Prospectus.

Before going into this, I want to try my best to explain the concepts of "above average" and "above replacement. We'll take a look at four players and calculate their hits above average and hits above replacement.


Player A 15 PA, 5 hits
Player B 18 PA, 4 hits
Player C 11 PA, 7 hits
Player D 20 PA, 1 hit


To calculate what is average, we should calculate the average amount of hits per plate appearance for all of the players.

Player A 0.3333 H/PA
Player B 0.2222 H/PA
Player C 0.6364 H/PA
Player D 0.0500 H/PA
Average 0.2656 H/PA
Rep Level 0.2000 H/PA

Replacement level is defined as a player that can be found on the waiver wire. I really just plucked that number out of nowhere to go through these calculations. Now we want to find out how many hits/plate appearance above average and multiply by plate appearances to find hits above average and replacement.

Player A 0.0677 H/PA above Average (1.016 HAA)
0.1333 H/PA above Replacement (2.000 HAR)
Player B -0.0434 H/PA above Average (-0.782 HAA)
0.0222 H/PA above Replacement (0.400 HAR)
Player C 0.3608 H/PA above Average (3.969 HAA)
0.4364 H/PA above Replacement (4.800 HAR)
Player D -0.2156 H/PA above Average (-4.312 HAA)
-0.1500 H/PA above Replacement(-3.000 HAR)

I really wanted to go through that, because I've always found that people shy away from numbers like this and to maybe show some trends. Average players with lots of playing time can rack up numbers over replacement level, while good player without much playing time will have a better time getting above average compared to replacement.

Now that we have that out of the way, I wanted to take a peak at the Win Expectancy of our bullpen. Win expectancy was created by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus, and essentially takes the guessing out of inherited runner numbers. For a full explanation, go here. The basic concept is that he used historical data for situations and how often teams win based on the score and how many runners are on base, and made adjustments for team strength. The totals are compared to average and replacement level, and given an adjustment for who the players face in the lineup (For example, a player would get more credit for retiring Sheffield/Magglio/Guillen than one who takes care of Casey/Monroe/Inge). Players who come into mop up situations will likely linger around zero, while pitchers who close out the game or come into close situations

Oh yeah, we were going to look at the Tigers bullpen. I guess we should do that. Here are the 2007 lineup adjusted numbers for Win Expectation above an average reliever.

Bobby Seay 0.995
Todd Jones 0.947
Joel Zumaya 0.620
Chad Durbin 0.446
Tim Byrdak 0.093
Aquilino Lopez -0.019
Eulogio Delacruz -0.031
Jose Capellan -0.064
Yorman Bazardo -0.066
Macay McBride -0.111
Zach Miner -0.151
Wil Ledezma -0.322
Jose Mesa -0.503
Jason Grilli -0.513
Fernando Rodney -0.539

What does this tell us? Todd Jones has done well closing out games. He gives up runs in bunches, which means that the last couple runs he gives up in an appearance probably don't decrease the team's shot at losing much. Bobby Seay has been used properly this year, facing primarily lefties. We need Zumaya back. I wouldn't think Durbin would rate this high. I'm going to look into seeing if his starting innings are skewing the analysis. The bullpen overall has been bad. Jason Grilli has been as bad as everybody this side of Jim Leyland thinks, and the sub-100% Fernando Rodney was terrible. Luckily, he seems to be better now.

For comparison, here's a look at our 2006 numbers.

Joel Zumaya 3.978
Fernando Rodney 1.149
Todd Jones 0.791
Jamie Walker 0.371
Roman Colon 0.095
Jordan Tata 0.079
Chad Durbin 0.037
Bobby Seay -0.002
Zach Miner -0.060
Colby Lewis -0.068
Wil Ledezma -0.075
Chris Spurling -0.102
Andrew Miller -0.116
Mike Maroth -0.150
Kenny Rogers -0.288
Jason Grilli -0.393

Look who was our worst reliever last year... As with Durbin this year, I'm not sure Maroth and Rogers are rated fairly. If I remember correctly, Rogers was used in the last game of the season out of desperation and didn't pitch too well. One could make a case that Zumaya's year last year was the best for a Tigers reliever in the franchise's history. Considering he'd be going up against 1984 Willie, that's saying something. Overall, the three guys counted on to keep leads did the job. Ledezma and Grilli on the surface pitched better, but clearly struggled with inherited runners and possibly benefited a bit from Zumaya cleaning up their mess.

Overall, the bullpen has been much worse this year. As shown above, the notion that Jason Grilli has been overused is probably correct.

I've had Internet issues of late, and will try to get those straightened out so I can update this more often. Soon, I'll take a further look at another tool Davenport has in these rankings and go through and try to get to the bottom of the options/service time mystery.

Michael Witte is Full of Crap

This article:

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003621797

is getting a lot of buzz today. A quick Google search of Witte and Bonds will show many blogs and writers saying something along the lines of "Kudos to Michael Witte for standing up to a cheater," or "I don't really understand, but this guy seems to be an expert in mechanics."

As a mechanical engineer with a little bit of a biomechanics background, I'm going to let everybody in on a little secret: He's not.

In the middle of the article, Witte writes about six different ways in which the elbow armor that Barry Bonds wears gives him a mechanical advantage in his swing. Each of them has their own flaws, but each blatantly false.

1) The apparatus is hinged at the elbow. It is a literal "hitting machine" that allows Bonds to release his front arm on the same plane during every swing. It largely accounts for the seemingly magical consistency of every Bonds stroke.

I'm trying to get my mind around this one. If I'm comprehending this correctly, Witte is claiming that this device somehow controls Bonds' leading elbow, creating a perfect swing every time. As Jerry Seinfeld would say. "That, my friends, is one magic shield." The swing plane that Bonds will swing through is not only dependent on the relative motion of forearm to the upper arm, but also to the position and orientation of his lower body, torso, and upper arm. In order for this apparatus to create a consistent swing plane, it would need to have some sort of position sensors within it to adjust and correct itself or be connected to the ground.

2) The apparatus locks at the elbow when the lead arm is fully elongated because of a small flap at the top of the bottom section that fits into a groove in the bottom of the top section. The locked arm forms a rigid front arm fulcrum that allows extraordinary, maximally efficient explosion of the levers of Bonds' wrists. Bonds hands are quicker than those of average hitters because of his mechanical "assistant."


I was unaware that an arm can elongate. Perhaps Bonds is superhuman after all!! Witte proceeds to describe the forearm as a fulcrum, which is defined as the fixed point of a lever. If the forearm was fixed during a baseball swing, he had better be laying down a bunt. The forearm, ideally should be moving pretty quickly at the time of impact.

3) When Bonds swings, the weight of the apparatus helps to seal his inner upper arm to his torso at impact. Thus "connected," he automatically hits the ball with the weight of his entire body - not just his arms - as average hitters ("extending") tend to do.

Wow. Just wow. I'd love to see the analysis he did to come up with this conclusion. I'm seriously at a loss for words with this one. There is so much more going in to how much "weight" is being put into the ball (I think he means how much force Bonds is exerting on the ball).

4) Bonds has performed less well in Home Run Derbies than one might expect because he has no excuse to wear a "protector" facing a batting practice pitcher. As he tires, his front arm elbow tends to lift and he swings under the ball, producing towering pop flies or topspin liners that stay in the park. When the apparatus is worn, its weight keeps his elbow down and he drives the ball with backspin.

This is pure speculation. I'm sure an athlete as skilled as Bonds can make adjustments like this. Besides, the weight of protective equipment is likely to be fairly insignificant.

5) Bonds enjoys quicker access to the inside pitch than average hitters because his "assistant" - counter-intuitively - allows him to turn more rapidly. Everyone understands that skaters accelerate their spins by pulling their arms into their torsos, closer to their axes of rotation. When Bonds is confronted with an inside pitch, he spins like a skater because his upper front arm is "assistant"-sealed tightly against the side of his chest.

This phenomena, while it applies to figure skating (decreasing the rotational inertia to increase angular velocity by conservation of angular momentum), doesn't apply in the case of a linear collision, which is what is happening when the bat is striking the ball. In a linear collision, mass*velocity is conserved. If a batter were to bring their arms in instead of extending, that velocity (equal to angular velocity times the distance from the rotational axis) is much much lower and would be ultimately worse for the batter who is trying to get as much linear velocity at the point of impact as possible.

6) At impact, Bonds has additional mass (the weight of his "assistant") not available to the average hitter. The combined weight of "assistant" and bat is probably equal to the weight of the lumber wielded by Babe Ruth but with more manageable weight distribution.

He forgets to mention that it is also more mass that needs to be moved by the muscles. This also completely neglects the fact that the weight of the armor is pretty minimal in the grand scheme of things.

It is worrisome that people are willing to believe anything they read. My advice to anybody out there is to take it upon yourselves to learn issues, so that you don't get duped like so many did my Mr. Witte. Whether it is the issue of an artist describing the mechanics of a baseball swing or a bitter politician delving into atmospheric sciences. Be weary and skeptical of any conclusions. If you don't understand something, it doesn't necessarily mean the source is credible.

Sad News

When I got the news that there was a shooting at Virginia Tech, I was stunned.

When I heard it was in the Engineering Building, it hit way too close to home, since I was in my campus's equivalent.

When I wasn't getting minute-by-minute updates on the stellar performance last night by Andrew Miller and Mike Hollimon, I started to feel a void.

When somebody I knew still wasn't heard from late into the night, I started to feel worried.

When I found out I lost a friend, I felt sick.

RIP, Brian.


Special thanks to Curtis Granderson and his publicity director John Fullmer who have been very helpful in spreading his story through the organization. As if he wasn't already, Granderson has skyrocketed to the top of everybody's favorite Tigers list.

Tim McCarver is an Idiot... or Maybe Not

For my High School English Class, I had to write a journal at the end of every quarter. Essentially it was a way to express thoughts and boost grades from the harshly graded essays and exams. The problem was that I had forgotten about the journal and essentially put it off until the last minute. Luckily, this was around the time of the World Series, and a great source of untruths was blabbing on the air. To fill up my ten pages of thoughts, I wrote down Tim McCarver quotes while watching the Angels knock off the Giants and commented on their lunacy. I figure doing that tonight would be good way to spend what would be an otherwise boring, meaningless three hours.

I'll be updating this periodically through the night, documenting Tim McCarverisms that arise through this game that apparently counts.

There really wasn't anything from McCarver in the top of the first, but Brad Penny was pretty impressive. That Paul DePodesta was certainly fleeced for getting him for Paul LoDuca.

* Not an exact quote, because it would be impossible, but the delivery of the rant about New York teams with 3 players with 20 homeruns at the All Star Break was purely Bushtacular.
* "Vladimir saw his Anaheim Angels... ... ... move within three games..." Again, a Bush-esque pause, but nothing inherently idiotic.
* Again, not McCarver, but this "Heads and Shoulders" stuff needs to go the way of Scooter. Honestly, who thinks that belongs in a baseball game?
* "White Sox fans out there are wondering why they let Magglio Ordonez go, but it was because they signed Jermaine Dye, who has been one of the most proficient hitters this year." Tim has improved to the point where I have to call him out on this one. Magglio was let go because of injury concerns and the desire for a long term deal. Dye was not nearly as good as he is now at the time he was signed. 2.5 innings in, and there really hasn't been much ammo here...

The Future of the AL Central

Major League Baseball's proverbial door-mat since its creation in 1994, the American League Central (the only division in baseball never to produce a Wild Card) suddenly has suddenly risen to the top of baseball, behind the sudden dominance of our beloved Tigers and the Chicago White Sox. Even the "struggling" Twins are firmly above the .500 mark this season.

While the state of the division is strong, the future of the division remains even stronger. The Tigers are loaded with pitching with youngsters like Verlander, Bonderman, Zumaya with Sanchez and Miller likely waiting in the wings. The White Sox have core talent that is not particularly old, and a lack of burdensome contracts that will give the improved Ken Williams flexibility in the offseasons to come. The Twins already have arguably the top two lefthanded pitchers in the game in Santana and Liriano and Matt Garza waiting in the wings. With youngsters like Morneau and Mauer already anchoring that team, they are not likely to go away any time soon. The Indians have the makings of a young team, and the Royals themselves have some star young talent.

The question is, which team is best poised for dominance in the coming years? This is a tough question that I don't have an answer to. I'd like to see what some readers think.

This is more than likely going to be baseball's best division for years to come, which will make any success the Tigers have all the more rewarding.

Farmers of the Day (July 4, 2006)

Three players are going to be recognized in our first Farmers of the Day segment.

Ryan Raburn (2B, Toledo) went 2/3 with a 3-run homerun, a double, and a walk. It's always big news when Raburn plays secondbase and does not commit an error. No matter how bad a fielder this guy is, he is going to force his way onto the roster at some point if he hits the way he has been, especially with the way Craig Monroe has been playing.

David Espinosa (LF, Toledo) went 2/4, also with a double, homer, and a walk. This guy has done the reverse this year, as he normally starts off red hot before cooling off at the end of the year. Now hitting .281/.364/.510, Espinosa has re-established himself as a prospect. Like Raburn, there are severe defensive issues in play. Both Raburn and Espinosa are due to be minor league free agents this upcoming offseason. That can be avoided by adding them to the 40-man roster, something that could be made possible by the struggles of "prospects" in Erie and Lakeland.

The third and final Farmer of the Day is the top prospect in the system, Cameron Maybin. Maybin went 3/4, hitting his third homerun of the season. They say that homerun power is the last to come around. If that is the case and some of Maybin's doubles and triples turn into homeruns, watch out. Cameron has hit .309/.405/.470 this year, walking plenty, and even stealing 13/15 to boot. The strikeouts (63 in 181 AB) are up, but that is to be expected from an 18 year old facing professional pitchers for the first time. It's going to be fun to watch this kid develop.

Chris Shelton: Night and Day

Chris Shelton has been among the biggest enigmas in baseball this year. After electrifying the baseball world with his amazing April, he cooled off considerably, almost to the point where a trip to Toledo would have been the ticket to straightening him out. While he seemed to figure some things out offensively this past weekend, his defense seemed to elude him, making three errors and cutting off a ball when there was a clear play at the plate.

The ridiculousnes of plays like the cutoff not being an error aside, Chris has some interesting splits when you take a look at them. As his career is starting to reach the point where you can come to conclusions about his splits, Chris Shelton is clearly hits better in day games.



G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Day
82 248 44 83 16 0 17 38 24 60 0 0 .335 .398 .605 1.003
Night
132 465 62 120 19 6 18 63 45 122 0 1 .258 .328 .441 .769

Those numbers speak for themselves, as Chris Shelton clearly hits much better during day games than he does at night. This is something for Jim Leyland to keep in mind the next time he wants to give Pudge a break and play him at first base: do it at night.

Justin Verlander is on the last player ballot, a remarkable achievement for a Tigers rookie. Being scheduled to make his final start before the All Star Break tommorow, it appears as if Verlander is going to get significant rest the next couple of weeks regardless of if he pitches an inning on national television. Please, stop being irrational and go out and vote for him. The only thing worse than the inevitable Tim McCarver crediting the team's success to veteran leaders Pudge Rodriguez (fifth best position player) and Kenny Rogers (fourth best pitcher) is the sad fact that American baseball fans will believe every word. What is the harm in having a real Tiger pitching in this so-called Midsummer Classic?

Catcher of the Future?

Ivan Rodriguez is not getting any younger, and his numbers are slowly starting to show it. Sometime in the next couple of years, the Tigers are going to have to find a new catcher. Will they be able to plug somebody in from the farm without missing a beat or will the free agent markets have to be ventured into?

At the Major League level, Ivan Rodriguez is still regarded as one of the best in the league, despite youngsters like Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and to a lesser extent Russ Martin and Mike Napoli passing him over. Regardless, Pudge is far from a hole in the lineup or in the field yet. Signed through next season, the Tigers will have to make a decision on their Hall of Fame catcher. 2008 holds a $13 million option, with a $3 million buyout. As long as Pudge hasn't gone Dmitri Young on us, fans would go berzerk if he is not signed to a long term extension: a long term extension that is not a good idea. We are talking about a guy who at any moment could lose his remaining skills, and it would be a huge mistake to be on the hook for several years. As we have seen with guys like Todd Jones and Jeff Weaver this year, the bigger cost of signing bad players to big contracts is not the money, but the fact that they get far too many chances to justify the contract, regardless of how bad they play. Such a problem could arise if the Tigers opt to sign Rodriguez to a long term deal.

As for the option, a lot depends on which direction Pudge goes the next couple of years. If he stays about where he is (as PECOTA suggests he should), another year would not be a bad decision. If he declines even more next year, it may be time to look someplace else.

The most natural player that people will look at is Vance Wilson. Unfortunately, Vance is also getting up there in age. There is a good chance, at age 33, this is his last productive season. It would probably be wise to let Wilson go after the season and take a shot at a younger backup whose stock will be rising as Pudge needs more and more time off.

Next time around, I will take a look at possible free agents out there as well as a look down on the farm among Tigers catchers.