Projecting the Rosters - The Bullpen

Now to the Achilles heal of last year's team. How bad was the bullpen? Their -4.35 WPA suggests they cost the Tigers approximately nine wins. While the defense certainly hurt, the inability of the starters to get deep into games is not as big of a problem as I had assumed. The team finished in the middle of the pack in starter's innings.

The bullpen competition is wide open this year. In doing these projections, I am going to assume five right-handers and two southpaws. This has been the standard setup since Leyland took over the reigns three years ago. Listed among the candidates is every pitcher in camp not among the projected starters with three exceptions. Eddie Bonine, Jon Kibler, and Rick Porcello are not listed because they appear to be exclusively starters at this point.

Redundant Players, already mentioned with the starters:
Kyle Bloom, L: A rule 5 pick, so the Tigers will want to be extra sure there's no potential before sending him back to Pittsburgh. I haven't heard anything about Bloom in a while, but you'd have to imagine a strong spring would leave him as the second lefty, much to the chagrin of Macay McBride and Clay Rapada.

Alfredo Figaro, R: Hasn't pitched above Lakeland and hasn't succeeded above West Michigan. Figaro will need to have turned a few corners before getting a bullpen job this year. I'd say he's likely destined for a rotation in Erie or Lakeland, or if they want to get him on a fast track, to relief.

Chris Lambert, R: Possibly a long reliever candidate. I don't see room for him right now. With three options remaining, I don't think the Tigers would mind using one to send him to Toledo to start games.

Zach Miner, R: As I mentioned yesterday, Miner is still a candidate to start. If one of Robertson and Willis show something in the spring, Miner could be off to the bullpen to be a starter in waiting. It confounds some people, but Miner still has two options years left just in case. No team gets 162 starts from their opening day rotation; very few get 120. He will get a chance to start games, but can be valuable as a long man.

Fu-Te Ni, L: Another wild card this spring. A strong camp could have Ni making those of us who find Monty Python unfunny and annoying want to stay away from Comerica Park. As it stands, I'm projecting him for Toledo, because unlike three other lefties in competition for bullpen jobs, he can be sent there without being lost.

Ryan Perry, R: Hey look! Another complete unknown. It's not hard to forsee a scenario where Perry makes the big league club out of spring. However, until that happens, I'm going to have him slotted for Erie.

Dontrelle Willis, L: I get the feeling Willis will either be fully recovered and in the rotation or struggling to throw strikes and in limbo. I don't see him in the bullpen right now.

Full time relievers:
Rudy Darrow, R: Darrow may be one of those "Use him while you've got him" guys. The sidearmer has a very painful looking motion, one that has already sent him under the knife in 2005. Take a look at this picture to see what I mean.

Stop me if you've heard this before. Darrow is a candidate for the pen if he impresses the right people this spring. The mere fact that there is competition for the bullpen spots tells me things will improve this year.

Freddy Dolsi, R: After a meteoric rise to the bullpen last year, you have to wonder if Dolsi did enough to stick around. Once again, a lot will depend on his spring. We'll pencil him in for now.

Casey Fien, R: After almost making the team out of spring last year, Fien put up a fine season in Erie and Toledo. Since being drafted in 2006 in 164.2 IP, Fien has struck out 173 batters and walked just 34. I'm sold.

Brandon Lyon, R: I don't particularly care who's closer. Getting outs in the 7th and 8th innings is important too. That said, Lyon seems to be the front-runner for the closer spot. He's an upgrade on Todd Jones, and is as close as a lock as a reliever can be.

Macay McBride, L: Kyle Bloom will get a lot of talk as a Rule 5 draftee, but Macay McBride, being out of options, can't be sent to Toledo if he misses the team either. Recovering from Tommy John Surgery, the DL could be an option for McBride if there isn't room for him. I haven't heard anything about how his rehab is going.

Clay Rapada, L: I'm racking my brain for reasons that Casey Fossum was on the roster over Rapada last year. With one option year remaining, Toledo could be his destination again while Bloom and McBride fight over the second lefty spot.

Juan Rincon, R: The former Twin signed a minor league deal and will have to show something in order to make the team. The last two (post-steroid) years have been pretty ugly for Rincon. I don't see him making the squad without a major resurgence or some Leyland Veteran Fetish.

Fernando Rodney, R: It's February 10, and Fernando Rodney hasn't had an injury yet in 2009. Another "lock" for the bullpen unless that shoulder acts up. He's got almost two months, so I'd say that's fairly likely.

Bobby Seay, L: Probably a lock as the bullpen's primary lefty. Seay has been solid in the bullpen, but you would ideally like to see some dominance. You have to pencil him in for now.

Zach Simons, R: Lumped in with Perry, Fien, and Darrow as rookie relievers with a shot with a nice Spring. A word of warning with Simons: That .232 BABIP in Lakeland last year was pretty fluky. He may not be the pitcher his surface numbers in Lakeland suggest.

Scott Williamson, R: Scott Williamson is a great pitcher when he's healthy. Unfortunately, he hasn't been healthy since 2003. Matt Mantei, Part 3, I think he retires during the spring.

Joel Zumaya, R: Cutting to the chase, I don't think Zumaya will be ready for the season. I'm projecting him for the DL, hoping that the Tigers take it easy on him. Zumaya is Exhibit A in why you should use big arms while you've got them.

So, in summary

R-Freddy Dolsi
R-Casey Fien
R-Brandon Lyon
R-Zach Miner
R-Fernando Rodney
L-Kyle Bloom
L-Bobby Seay

Lyon, Rodney, Miner (assuming he's not in the rotation), and Seay appear to be locks. I've got Bloom in as the second lefty because he can't be demoted (and McBride can go on the DL). Dolsi's got a job to lose, and Casey Fien seems to be the closest to MLB ready among the rookie candidates. Zumaya and McBride start on the DL. Willis accepts his assignment to Toledo or Lakeland. The rest will go into the minor league pool of candidates as we work our way down.

This is a wide open competition, and I will be adjusting this frequently based on some of the news from Lakeland. The position players are next.

Brandon Lyon

After the rumors have been swirling since the beginning of free agency, the Tigers appear to have finally signed Brandon Lyon.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Lee points out that Lyon had several clean outings, while Billfer points out that he was very unlucky on balls in play, specifically ground balls.

The fact that he is coming from the NL West scares me. Until the addition of Manny Ramirez, the offenses in that division were dreadful across the board. He was getting disproportionate playing time against offensive juggernauts Colorado, San Diego, San Francisco, and the pre-Manny Dodgers. How does this play out in his splits?

vs. NL West: 133 PA, .291/.316/.425
vs. Others: 132 PA, .311/.343/.492
vs. NL West minus Dodgers: 99 PA, .277/.303/.372

The splits weren't as drastic as I had figured (I looked them up after writing the preceding paragraph). Still, this is something to be weary about heading into this season. Moving from the National League to the American League is also likely to lead to some sort of statistical decline for Lyon.

I have seen some speculation that his late season slide may be the sign of an injury. While I don't have pitching data by appearance, it doesn't appear as if his velocity or control took much of a dive last year.

What this move gives the Tigers is a semi-reliable bullpen arm. This will prevent them from forcing Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya into late innings when they aren't healthy and effective, and will reduce the need to rush some of the relief prospects before they are ready. It's good to see the Tigers addressing the bullpen.

To make room on the roster, Eddie Bonine was designated for assignment. For those who wondered why James Skelton and others were left off the roster while Bonine remained in place, this is why. You need players who can slip through waivers when additions are made. Skelton is still less likely to stick with Arizona than he would if he could be claimed and sent to the minors. Bonine will likely clear waivers, and won't be a huge loss if he doesn't.

That Felt Good

The excuses can finally stop. The Tigers are officially alive. Thanks to an offensive onslaught and a masterful Tigers' debut from Armando Galarraga, the Tigers dominated Cleveland yesterday 13-1. Detroit and Cleveland are now tied at 5-10. If you still believe this to be a two-team race, then the teams are tied. I'm becoming more and more convinced that Chicago will be a real threat in this things, but if the mission was to make up lost ground on the Indians, mission accomplished.

If Sabathia, Carmona, and the bullpen keep it up, remember this team the next time somebody tells you a team can win because of their pitching. A pitching staff is simply too unpredictable, even one coming off of a great season, especially bullpens. Cleveland, Seattle, and Toronto are all teams who had people claiming their great bullpen to be the key to their eventual success this year, and all three have had massive bullpen problems.

Watch out for Cale Iorg, who is smoking the ball in Lakeland. 2006 3rd rounder Brennan Boesch, on the other hand, has continued to showcase why doubts were raised about him last season.

James Andrews could not find anything wrong with Fernando Rodney's shoulder. It looks like more rehabbing until he's ready.

More on the Pen

Another reliever with options got sent down instead of Jason Grilli. A lot of griping has gone on about the bullpen this year, and there was a large demand for adding to the bullpen at the trading deadline. Of course, if the best seven relievers were on the team, the problem would be slightly alleviated. I wanted to update the Win expectancy numbers from two weeks ago, and try to pick out the best bullpen.

Todd Jones 1.161
Bobby Seay 0.965
Joel Zumaya 0.662 (Before today)
Chad Durbin 0.438
Tim Byrdak 0.007
Yorman Bazardo -0.016
Eulogio De La Cruz -0.030
Aquilino Lopez -0.044
Jose Capellan -0.067
Macay McBride -0.127
Zach Miner -0.230
Fernando Rodney -0.276
Jason Grilli -0.620

I know I've turned this place into a Grilli bash fest, but one has to wonder what he has to do to leave the team. Granted, guys I've been trumpeting like Bazardo, Lopez, Capellan, and now Miner have also been bad. Fernando Rodney has moved up this list significantly since the last time. Bazardo is probably low because he's been placed into such low leverage situations so far.

One more thing i wanted to show was the leverage calculation that BP does. Basically, a player with a leverage of 1 is brought into average situations. Higher than one and a player is brought into situations with the game on the line, and lower than one and they are brought into mopup roles. This will give us an idea of how relievers are being used.

Todd Jones 1.83
Fernando Rodney 1.54
Joel Zumaya 1.34
Zach Miner 1.29
Macay McBride 1.28
Tim Byrdak 1.24
Chad Durbin 1.20
Jose Capellan 1.16
Jason Grilli 0.95
Bobby Seay 0.82
Aquilino Lopez 0.67
Yorman Bazardo 0.42
Eulogio De La Cruz 0.23

Grilli was much lower last year, but still should be down in the Bazardo DLC I'd really like to see more Bazardo, and Bobby Seay should be used much more often over Byrdak. The good news is that September will bring about all of the castoffs from Toledo. Hopefully guys like Capellan, Bazardo and De La Cruz get opportunities in tight spots, especially if Zumaya isn't 100%, which he appeared not to be today.

Other Thoughts
Ryan Raburn should be in the starting lineup, especially in days like today when Sean Casey is DH-ing. There's no excuse for leaving a hot bat out of a struggling lineup two straight days.

Part of me wonders if Gary Sheffield plays another game. If he retires with the shoulder problem, the battle over who gets the last two years of that contract could get interesting and heated.

It would be nice if Jeff Larish got a bit of an audition this September. If he could show he belongs in the bigs, the team could save some big money in the off-season going after a free agent.

This is the second straight season Curtis Granderson's bat has come to a screeching halt towards the end of August. The slump isn't long enough to be considered significant yet, but it's getting to the point where worry needs to kick in. He really is an important part of this lineup.

The Bullpen

Especially of late, the 2007 season has been a slight disappointment after the magical 2006 affair. While the offense has been at times dominant, the pitching has taken a turn for the worse. Given that the pitching is considered the young core of the team, this has been a tremendous disappointment in a lot of ways.

The bullpen, in particular, has taken a big step back. In order to take a look at this, I'm going to look at some of the Win Expectancy numbers from the guys at Baseball Prospectus.

Before going into this, I want to try my best to explain the concepts of "above average" and "above replacement. We'll take a look at four players and calculate their hits above average and hits above replacement.


Player A 15 PA, 5 hits
Player B 18 PA, 4 hits
Player C 11 PA, 7 hits
Player D 20 PA, 1 hit


To calculate what is average, we should calculate the average amount of hits per plate appearance for all of the players.

Player A 0.3333 H/PA
Player B 0.2222 H/PA
Player C 0.6364 H/PA
Player D 0.0500 H/PA
Average 0.2656 H/PA
Rep Level 0.2000 H/PA

Replacement level is defined as a player that can be found on the waiver wire. I really just plucked that number out of nowhere to go through these calculations. Now we want to find out how many hits/plate appearance above average and multiply by plate appearances to find hits above average and replacement.

Player A 0.0677 H/PA above Average (1.016 HAA)
0.1333 H/PA above Replacement (2.000 HAR)
Player B -0.0434 H/PA above Average (-0.782 HAA)
0.0222 H/PA above Replacement (0.400 HAR)
Player C 0.3608 H/PA above Average (3.969 HAA)
0.4364 H/PA above Replacement (4.800 HAR)
Player D -0.2156 H/PA above Average (-4.312 HAA)
-0.1500 H/PA above Replacement(-3.000 HAR)

I really wanted to go through that, because I've always found that people shy away from numbers like this and to maybe show some trends. Average players with lots of playing time can rack up numbers over replacement level, while good player without much playing time will have a better time getting above average compared to replacement.

Now that we have that out of the way, I wanted to take a peak at the Win Expectancy of our bullpen. Win expectancy was created by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus, and essentially takes the guessing out of inherited runner numbers. For a full explanation, go here. The basic concept is that he used historical data for situations and how often teams win based on the score and how many runners are on base, and made adjustments for team strength. The totals are compared to average and replacement level, and given an adjustment for who the players face in the lineup (For example, a player would get more credit for retiring Sheffield/Magglio/Guillen than one who takes care of Casey/Monroe/Inge). Players who come into mop up situations will likely linger around zero, while pitchers who close out the game or come into close situations

Oh yeah, we were going to look at the Tigers bullpen. I guess we should do that. Here are the 2007 lineup adjusted numbers for Win Expectation above an average reliever.

Bobby Seay 0.995
Todd Jones 0.947
Joel Zumaya 0.620
Chad Durbin 0.446
Tim Byrdak 0.093
Aquilino Lopez -0.019
Eulogio Delacruz -0.031
Jose Capellan -0.064
Yorman Bazardo -0.066
Macay McBride -0.111
Zach Miner -0.151
Wil Ledezma -0.322
Jose Mesa -0.503
Jason Grilli -0.513
Fernando Rodney -0.539

What does this tell us? Todd Jones has done well closing out games. He gives up runs in bunches, which means that the last couple runs he gives up in an appearance probably don't decrease the team's shot at losing much. Bobby Seay has been used properly this year, facing primarily lefties. We need Zumaya back. I wouldn't think Durbin would rate this high. I'm going to look into seeing if his starting innings are skewing the analysis. The bullpen overall has been bad. Jason Grilli has been as bad as everybody this side of Jim Leyland thinks, and the sub-100% Fernando Rodney was terrible. Luckily, he seems to be better now.

For comparison, here's a look at our 2006 numbers.

Joel Zumaya 3.978
Fernando Rodney 1.149
Todd Jones 0.791
Jamie Walker 0.371
Roman Colon 0.095
Jordan Tata 0.079
Chad Durbin 0.037
Bobby Seay -0.002
Zach Miner -0.060
Colby Lewis -0.068
Wil Ledezma -0.075
Chris Spurling -0.102
Andrew Miller -0.116
Mike Maroth -0.150
Kenny Rogers -0.288
Jason Grilli -0.393

Look who was our worst reliever last year... As with Durbin this year, I'm not sure Maroth and Rogers are rated fairly. If I remember correctly, Rogers was used in the last game of the season out of desperation and didn't pitch too well. One could make a case that Zumaya's year last year was the best for a Tigers reliever in the franchise's history. Considering he'd be going up against 1984 Willie, that's saying something. Overall, the three guys counted on to keep leads did the job. Ledezma and Grilli on the surface pitched better, but clearly struggled with inherited runners and possibly benefited a bit from Zumaya cleaning up their mess.

Overall, the bullpen has been much worse this year. As shown above, the notion that Jason Grilli has been overused is probably correct.

I've had Internet issues of late, and will try to get those straightened out so I can update this more often. Soon, I'll take a further look at another tool Davenport has in these rankings and go through and try to get to the bottom of the options/service time mystery.