Sunday, September 28, 2008

Renteria says he wants to return.

This headline is a bit misleading, in my opinion. Sure, Renteria says he wants to return, but in this world what somebody says is not necessarily what they mean. Call me a cynic if you will, but statements like this may only be used to raise his price. This may seem counterintuitive, but let me explain.

The Tigers have three options on what to do with Renteria's contract. They can buy it out for $3-million or accept the option for $12-million more. If they refuse the option, they can offer arbitration or decline it.

What do these mean for Renteria?
Accepted Option : $12,000,000
Declined Option + Offered Arbitration : $3,000,000 + Arbitration/Negotiated Salary from Tigers or $3,000,000 + Salary from other team
Declined Option + Declined Arbitration : $3,000,000 + Salary from Other Team or Tigers

By declaring his "desire" to stay in Detroit, Renteria is reducing the Tigers' chance of declining the option and offering arbitration. If they offer arbitration, because Renteria is a Type A free agent, the Tigers will recieve a draft pick from the signing team for him. The other team, not wanting to part with that draft pick, will likely be less willing to dish out top money for him. In doing this, Renteria is increasing the risk for the Tigers if they decline the option and offer arbitration. Reducing the likelihood of this outcome reduces the chance that the Tigers will do it, thereby reducing the chance of Renteria's least desirable outcome to occur.

While this article may sound like Renteria loves Detroit, it could simply be a case of clever negotiation tactics.

No comments: