Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Scanning the System - First Base

The timing on this run through couldn't be any better, as the Miguel Cabrera/Carlos Guillen swap became official yesterday. It will be very interesting to see how Guillen handles third base. With Guillen DH-ing in Gary Sheffield's absence, this could become moot. I'll list Cabrera with the first basemen today, and not Guillen.

Miguel Cabrera, 25
Actual: .267/.345/.493
Expected: .240/.322/.466

Cabrera will be okay. The quadriceps soreness has sapped his line drive rate so far, but that won't be a problem.

Jeff Larish, 25
Actual: .275/.338/.565
Expected: .275/.338/.565

If there's anybody who's feeling down today, it's Jeff Larish. Rather than having a player in his 30's with bad legs manning your position, he now has a potential Hall of Famer blocking him. This potential Hall of Famer is known for his durability, and is also months younger than Larish. He's still around, and could squeeze his way into the lineup.

Ryan Roberson, 24
Actual: .183/.271/.350

His balls in play numbers aren't available right now, but his strikeouts are high so it will be hard to see him turning this season into the breakout season he needs.

Ryan Strieby, 22
Actual: .196/.292/.304
Expected .125/.230/.233

It's not been a nice start for Strieby. The component stats are very alarming, but also subject to sample size fluctuations. He's hit linedrives on 3% of his batted balls, and has struck out 32% of the time. I doubt that keeps up, but it's hard to attribute his poor start to bad luck.

West Michigan:
Chris Carlson, 24
Actual: .290/.333/.403
Expected: .242/.288/.355

I'm really interested in seeing what Carlson can do when he's not beating up on kids straight out of high school. He's not a prospect.

First base is pretty thin throughout the system. A day ago, there was some doubt about needing depth at the position. Now, the position is locked down until 2015. If you are going to lack depth, the best place to have your best prospect is in AAA, so that he can fill in when the big club has injuries. Jeff Larish's role as emergency bat is an important one.

No comments: