Placido Polanco's Free Agent Type

Alas, I've been typecast as the Elias guy. As long as there is great Tigers coverage in other places, I guess I'm okay with that.

As I was running the Elias numbers (which were posted at MLBTradeRumors today), I saw that Placido Polanco was inching ever so close to Type A status. I don't really want to get into the implications of Polanco reaching Type A status, the likelihood of an arbitration offer, or the possibility of Scott Sizemore taking over the 2B job. No, this is simply going to be a close look at Polanco's ranking and the possibility that he reaches Type A status.

First, I'll post the AL 2B/3B/SS rankings, which can be found at the link above.

Name	Team	Type	Score	Pos
Alex Rodriguez	New York A	A	93.27731092	3B
Derek Jeter	New York A	A	90.47619048	SS
Michael Young	Texas	A	85.97883598	SS
Dustin Pedroia	Boston	A	85.71428571	2B
Marco Scutaro	Toronto	A	83.06878307	SS
Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay	A	82.35294118	3B
Ian Kinsler	Texas	A	80.71428571	2B
Jhonny Peralta	Cleveland	A	80.68783069	SS
Brian Roberts	Baltimore	A	77.85714286	2B
Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay	A	77.77777778	SS
Mike Lowell	Boston	A	76.47058824	3B
Orlando Cabrera	Minnesota	A	75.92592593	SS
Chone Figgins	Los Angeles A	A	73.94957983	3B
Placido Polanco	Detroit	B	73.57142857	2B
Robinson Cano	New York A	B	71.42857143	2B
Alexei Ramirez	Chicago A	B	68.25396825	SS
Melvin Mora	Baltimore	B	68.06722689	3B
Erick Aybar	Los Angeles A	B	67.1957672	SS
Aaron Hill	Toronto	B	65.71428571	2B
Adrian Beltre	Seattle	B	65.54621849	3B
Mike Aviles	Kansas City	B	63.49206349	SS
Asdrubal Cabrera	Cleveland	B	62.85714286	2B
Jose Lopez	Seattle	B	62.85714286	2B
Yuniesky Betancourt	Kansas City	B	58.73015873	SS
Jack Wilson	Seattle	B	58.2010582	SS
Brendan Harris	Minnesota	B	57.40740741	SS
Cesar Izturis	Baltimore	None	56.61375661	SS
Howie Kendrick	Los Angeles A	None	56.42857143	2B
Brandon Inge	Detroit	None	55.46218487	3B
Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay	None	55	2B
Ty Wigginton	Baltimore	None	54.62184874	3B
Bobby Crosby	Oakland	None	54.4973545	SS
Mark Ellis	Oakland	None	54.28571429	2B
Nick Punto	Minnesota	None	50.79365079	SS
Carlos Guillen	Detroit	None	50.42016807	3B
Akinori Iwamura	Tampa Bay	None	50	2B
Edwin Encarnacion	Toronto	None	49.57983193	3B
Maicer Izturis	Los Angeles A	None	49.28571429	2B
Joe Crede	Minnesota	None	48.7394958	3B
Ramon Santiago	Detroit	None	48.67724868	SS
Alberto Callaspo	Kansas City	None	48.57142857	2B
Elvis Andrus	Texas	None	44.70899471	SS
Jed Lowrie	Boston	None	43.91534392	SS
Jamey Carroll	Cleveland	None	42.85714286	2B
Omar Vizquel	Texas	None	40.21164021	SS
Adam Everett	Detroit	None	38.62433862	SS
Alex Gonzalez	Boston	None	38.0952381	SS
Adam Kennedy	Oakland	None	37.85714286	2B
Jack Hannahan	Seattle	None	33.61344538	3B
Jose Bautista	Toronto	None	32.77310924	3B
Gordon Beckham	Chicago A	None	31.51260504	3B
Cliff Pennington	Oakland	None	30.68783069	SS
Bill Hall	Seattle	None	28.57142857	3B
Chris Getz	Chicago A	None	26.42857143	2B
Nick Green	Boston	None	25.66137566	SS
Andy Marte	Cleveland	None	25.21008403	3B
Alexi Casilla	Minnesota	None	20.71428571	2B
Eric Chavez	Oakland	None	16.80672269	3B
Robert Andino	Baltimore	None	15.34391534	SS
John McDonald	Toronto	None	14.81481481	SS
Luis Valbuena	Cleveland	None	14.28571429	2B
Andy Cannizaro	Chicago A	None	14.28571429	SS
Robb Quinlan	Los Angeles A	None	13.02521008	3B
Josh Wilson	Seattle	None	12.16931217	SS
Jayson Nix	Chicago A	None	11.42857143	2B
Brent Lillibridge	Chicago A	None	3.703703704	SS
Esteban German	Texas	None	2.142857143	2B

Polanco is ever so close to Chone Figgins for that last Type A spot. Let's take a closer look. First, we need to remember that each of the players on this list get their score from players at their own position, noting that players' positions are defined by where they played the most games over the past two seasons. Here are the 2B:

Ian Kinsler	Texas	80.71428571
Aaron Hill	Toronto	65.71428571
Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay	55
Jose Lopez	Seattle	62.85714286
Robinson Cano	New York A	71.42857143
Dustin Pedroia	Boston	85.71428571
Brian Roberts	Baltimore	77.85714286
Mark Ellis	Oakland	54.28571429
Placido Polanco	Detroit	73.57142857
Howie Kendrick	Los Angeles A	56.42857143
Maicer Izturis	Los Angeles A	49.28571429
Adam Kennedy	Oakland	37.85714286
Jayson Nix	Chicago A	11.42857143
Asdrubal Cabrera	Cleveland	62.85714286
Alberto Callaspo	Kansas City	48.57142857
Akinori Iwamura	Tampa Bay	50
Luis Valbuena	Cleveland	14.28571429
Alexi Casilla	Minnesota	20.71428571
Jamey Carroll	Cleveland	42.85714286
Chris Getz	Chicago A	26.42857143
Esteban German	Texas	2.142857143

Possible Position Changes
If one of these players "changes" positions, everybody's ranking will change. The ones who are within 15 games of moving to another position are as follows:

Ben Zobrist*: 88 games at 2B, 75 games in OF
Maicer Izturis: 79 games at 2B, 76 games at SS
Esteban German**: 29 games at 2B, 29 games at OF

*Ben Zobrist, by the way, is getting straight up overlooked in the AL MVP race.
**I'm honestly not sure what happens in the event of a tie. My projections default to the lower scorebook number. It was just easier that way.

And players at other positions who could move to second base:
Brent Lillibridge: 26 games at SS, 16 games at 2B
Eric Patterson: 24 games at 2B, 3o games at OF

Zobrist (Did I mention he deserves MVP mention?) has been playing a lot of outfield since Akinori Iwamura returned. Will he get 14 more starts in the outfield than second base? Possibly.

Barring an Erick Aybar injury, Maicer Izturis will probably continue to play more second than short this year. We'll leave him with the second basemen.

German hasn't played in the outfield at all with the Rangers this year. As a result, I'll say he'll get some "Rest Ian Kinsler" time and qualify at 2B.

Brent Lillibridge, Chicago's second utility infielder, probably won't play enough to make up a 10 game difference. He stays at shortstop.

Eric Patterson has been playing mostly outfield with the A's this year. He won't make the move to 2B.

In total, Ben Zobrist is the only player who projects to move. How do the 2B look without Ben Zobrist, who is more qualified to win the AL MVP than Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Cabrera?

Dustin Pedroia	Boston	86.46616541
Ian Kinsler	Texas	81.20300752
Brian Roberts	Baltimore	78.94736842
Placido Polanco	Detroit	73.68421053
Robinson Cano	New York A	72.18045113
Aaron Hill	Toronto	64.66165414
Jose Lopez	Seattle	63.15789474
Asdrubal Cabrera	Cleveland	63.15789474
Howie Kendrick	Los Angeles A	56.39097744
Mark Ellis	Oakland	54.88721805
Akinori Iwamura	Tampa Bay	50.37593985
Maicer Izturis	Los Angeles A	48.87218045
Alberto Callaspo	Kansas City	48.87218045
Jamey Carroll	Cleveland	42.85714286
Adam Kennedy	Oakland	37.59398496
Chris Getz	Chicago A	26.31578947
Alexi Casilla	Minnesota	21.05263158
Luis Valbuena	Cleveland	15.03759398
Jayson Nix	Chicago A	12.03007519
Esteban German	Texas	2.255639098

You can see Polanco is helped, but not enough.

Let's start digging into the statistics a bit:

Plate Appearances

Ian Kinsler	1354.0394
Dustin Pedroia	1328
Brian Roberts	1312
Jose Lopez	1236
Robinson Cano	1215
Placido Polanco	1184
Akinori Iwamura	1137.5
Aaron Hill	1093.7778
Mark Ellis	1000.4535
Asdrubal Cabrera	993.66238
Alberto Callaspo	904.26335
Adam Kennedy	858
Howie Kendrick	857.50549
Ben Zobrist	829.89116
Maicer Izturis	839.45848
Jamey Carroll	773.18395
Alexi Casilla	734.29393
Chris Getz	397.78797
Luis Valbuena	369
Jayson Nix	339.17419
Esteban German	275.53459

Do you see Polanco getting 30 more PA's than Robinson Cano the rest of the year? Me either. I also don't see Hill or Iwamura coming from behind to catch him, even though they are going to get roughly 1.2 PA's per PA the rest of the year. Polanco will not move up or down in this category.

Homeruns

Ian Kinsler	56.77
Aaron Hill	42.17
Ben Zobrist	40.12
Jose Lopez	39
Robinson Cano	37
Dustin Pedroia	27
Brian Roberts	23
Mark Ellis	22.01
Placido Polanco	18
Howie Kendrick	13.42
Maicer Izturis	13.38
Adam Kennedy	12
Jayson Nix	11.96
Asdrubal Cabrera	11.92
Alberto Callaspo	9.594
Akinori Iwamura	8.75
Luis Valbuena	8
Alexi Casilla	7.537
Jamey Carroll	3.381
Chris Getz	2.133
Esteban German	0

The same goes for homeruns, where there are 4+ homers separating Polanco from the players in front of and behind him. He won't move up or down here unless Ben Zobrist moves over to the outfielders.

RBI's

Ian Kinsler	180
Jose Lopez	173
Robinson Cano	147
Aaron Hill	145.7
Dustin Pedroia	140
Brian Roberts	122
Placido Polanco	121
Ben Zobrist	116.9
Asdrubal Cabrera	112.7
Maicer Izturis	111.9
Mark Ellis	110.1
Howie Kendrick	108.6
Adam Kennedy	88
Alberto Callaspo	83.95
Akinori Iwamura	83.75
Alexi Casilla	69.98
Jamey Carroll	65.37
Chris Getz	34.13
Jayson Nix	33.7
Luis Valbuena	25
Esteban German	23.31

Things are a bit tighter with RBI's. Polanco is only one RBI behind Brian Roberts, but only 4 above the AL's second most valuable player. If Polanco can pass Roberts, while holding off Zobrist, he will gain a point in the standings. A point in the standings, with 20 2B in the rankings, will be good for 1*100/(20*7)=.714 points in the rankings. Assuming Figgins stays put and all of the other categories stay the same, Polanco could reach Type A status by out-RBI ing Roberts and Zobrist.

Batting Average

Dustin Pedroia	0.310810811
Alberto Callaspo	0.298118669
Howie Kendrick	0.295902883
Robinson Cano	0.293554007
Placido Polanco	0.293040293
Brian Roberts	0.290546401
Asdrubal Cabrera	0.28875
Ian Kinsler	0.287148594
Maicer Izturis	0.28363047
Jose Lopez	0.283491789
Adam Kennedy	0.282802548
Jamey Carroll	0.281879195
Akinori Iwamura	0.279156328
Aaron Hill	0.279040404
Chris Getz	0.275147929
Ben Zobrist	0.273322422
Mark Ellis	0.249655172
Alexi Casilla	0.249169435
Luis Valbuena	0.241176471
Esteban German	0.238095238
Jayson Nix	0.205882353

With any rate stats, you have to worry about players who have such little playing time that a 3/3 day could move them all the way up to the top of the list. Luckily, there are no such players among this year's 2B crop. You can see Polanco is in the midst of a tight group of players. As such, a strong or weak finish to the year from him or one of the players around him (Kendrick, Cano, Roberts, Cabrera, or Kinsler) will affect his rankings. Polanco can likely move ahead of two players (+1.428 in the rankings) or move behind three (-2.143).

OBP

Ben Zobrist	0.378976487
Dustin Pedroia	0.371016692
Brian Roberts	0.364678899
Jamey Carroll	0.359583952
Asdrubal Cabrera	0.356026786
Akinori Iwamura	0.35209713
Ian Kinsler	0.351302785
Alberto Callaspo	0.35059761
Maicer Izturis	0.344023324
Placido Polanco	0.336170213
Chris Getz	0.333333333
Adam Kennedy	0.332942556
Howie Kendrick	0.331428571
Robinson Cano	0.326194399
Aaron Hill	0.324324324
Mark Ellis	0.319753086
Jose Lopez	0.312143439
Alexi Casilla	0.311844078
Esteban German	0.30078125
Luis Valbuena	0.298102981
Jayson Nix	0.296774194

Getz and Kennedy are right on Polanco's heals, and Izturis will probably be hard to catch. There is a potential for a move behind two players (-1.428).

Fielding Percentage

Asdrubal Cabrera	0.993630573
Mark Ellis	0.992639327
Placido Polanco	0.992307692
Jamey Carroll	0.991683992
Aaron Hill	0.991351351
Dustin Pedroia	0.990740741
Howie Kendrick	0.990123457
Maicer Izturis	0.989041096
Ben Zobrist	0.988795518
Brian Roberts	0.986373959
Akinori Iwamura	0.98569857
Chris Getz	0.984649123
Luis Valbuena	0.984496124
Robinson Cano	0.984016678
Ian Kinsler	0.979953739
Jose Lopez	0.978740157
Jayson Nix	0.978647687
Alberto Callaspo	0.977746871
Alexi Casilla	0.977719528
Adam Kennedy	0.976190476
Esteban German	0.969924812

I'd say Polanco is relatively secure here. Unless he goes on an error binge, he probably won't be moving up or down enough to change his ranking. Asdrubal Cabrera won't be moving anywhere, given that he's playing shortstop these days. Errors are so random, that this is tough to predict.

Total Chances (A+E+PO)

Ian Kinsler	1566.63
Robinson Cano	1439
Brian Roberts	1321
Placido Polanco	1300
Dustin Pedroia	1296
Jose Lopez	1270
Aaron Hill	1181.94
Mark Ellis	1163.12
Akinori Iwamura	1136.25
Howie Kendrick	988.022
Alberto Callaspo	862.288
Alexi Casilla	821.505
Asdrubal Cabrera	680.502
Adam Kennedy	588
Jamey Carroll	542.13
Chris Getz	486.304
Maicer Izturis	444.061
Ben Zobrist	409.214
Luis Valbuena	387
Jayson Nix	305.474
Esteban German	140.947

Pedroia could catch Polanco here (-.714), but it's not exactly likely. There aren't likely to be any significant changes at the top, given that everybody around Polanco is playing every day at 2B.


So, assuming Zobrist stays at 2B, Polanco could possibly move up a total of 2.143 points and down a total of 3.790. The math gets a bit complicated if Mauer's should-be MVP runner up gets a lot of time in the outfield this year.

Overall, Polanco has the potential to move into Type A range with a strong batting average, no errors, and plenty of RBI's.

Next time, I'll take a look at Chone Figgins and the possibility that he can move behind Polanco.

How About That?

Backs against the wall and facing their sixth straight loss while facing the league's best closer, the Tigers scrape out a victory. I'm typically very hard on the follies "small ball," but sometimes you need to scrape one out. After Matt Joyce reached on an infield single, Edgar Renteria reached on an error by Julio Lugo. This set up one of the few situations where a successful sacrifice bunt actually increases the batting team's chances of winning a game. (It may be an optimal strategy at other times, but only because of the likelihood of an accidental single or fielding error.) After Pudge got the bunt down, Curtis Granderson made contact getting the tying run home to tie the game at 9-9. This set up Placido Polanco's fifth hit of the game: a broken bat bloop single just over Lugo's head. It will be tough to predict where the team goes after this one, but the win helps to avoid what could have been a demoralizing loss after blowing and 8-4 lead in the late innings. If you are going to pull one out against Papelbon, that is the way to do it. Frankly, anything to make "Red Sox Nation" suffer a painful loss is enough for me.

One Man's Drastic Changes

Much has been made over the drastic changes to the lineup that will be debuted tonight. I'm not convinced that changes to the lineup are the answer any more than I am that a team can get away with one lineup. I have two sets of three lineups to use. One set of lineups for right-handed opponents, one set for left-handed opponents. One lineup is the "everyday" lineup, and the other two account for days off by Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Those two should each be seeing at least one off day every week.

vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF

I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.

vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B

vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C

vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF

It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.

vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF

If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.

vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF

Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.

I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.

Scanning the System - Second Base

Detroit:
Placido Polanco, 32
Actual: .226/.337/.345
Expected: .321/.418/.440

Ryan Raburn, 27
Actual: .238/.360/.476
Expected: .238/.360/.476

Ramon Santiago, 28
Actual: .375/.483/.708
Expected: .333/.449/.667

Polanco has already started to break out of his slump, and should continue to. He's simply been hitting balls right at guys. Ryan Raburn is a solid player and should at least be getting his fair share of time in left field. I touched on Santiago yesterday, and it's not like he's been lucky so far. The extra-base power is something new.

Toledo:
Michael Hollimon, 25
Actual: .238/.304/.571
Expected: .262/.326/.595

Ryan Raburn, 27
Actual: .316/.435/.737
Expected: .211/.348/.632

Caonabo Cosme, 29
Actual: .353/.368/.765
Expected: .353/.368/.765

Hollimon came back rather quickly from his shoulder dislocation. If Polanco's back flairs up again, he could be the guy. I've got Raburn's ridiculous stint on here. Because it lasted under ten days, he didn't use an option. Cosme has been demoted to Erie. I didn't list Henry Mateo, who started at second base while Hollimon was injured. I'd be remissed if I didn't mention that Hollimon was ranked seventh among 2B prospects by PECOTA.

Erie:
William Rhymes, 25
Actual: .209/.293/.326
Expected: .220/.303/.338

Caonabo Cosme, 29
Actual: .313/.353/.313
Expected: .313/.353/.313

Lakeland:
Scott Sizemore, 23
Actual: .269/.340/.409
Expected: .204/.283/.344

There was clamor early that Sizemore was destined to move up and take Rhymes' spot. I don't know if I got around to posting it, but Sizemore's early start was a mirage, and it looks like he's still got some falling to do. Rhymes is what he is, and if Sizemore can step forward, Rhymes won't be standing in his path.

West Michigan:
Justin Henry, 23
Actual: .242/.324/.319
Expected: .187/.276/.264

I'm sad to say that I did predict doom and gloom for Henry this year. I didn't expect him to be quite this bad. I did see him in person a couple weeks ago, and saw a couple of very weak ground balls. While he didn't look as bad as the completely lost Ronnie Bourquin, it was hard to predict much success for him.

Overall, at second base, things seem to be reasonably strong. Polanco seems a bit fragile right now, but Raburn and Hollimon should be able to fill in during an injury. Under contract through next season, Polanco has no real need for a replacement. Hollimon and Raburn should be around and in their prime at that point. I'm becoming less convinced that Sizemore will be in that picture, but it's not out of the question just yet.