Inge back to third

Brandon Inge will be the Tigers' regular third baseman next year. This is a move that is sure to improve the team's infield defense and provide some more stability at a third base position that was bound to have question marks.

Wait, wait, wait, some of you are probably asking? Don't the Tigers have an all star at third base? How will this provide more stability? The answer to that has to do with Carlos Guillen's health. Although he has missed countless games in his career for knee or hamstring injuries, the soreness in his back will prove to be a big deal. Those reading this with sore backs, bend over to field a ground ball and you will see why the Tigers chose this route. (Yes, outfielders have to field grounders as well, but they have to field less and they tend to be weakly hit).

But what about Matt Joyce? I wouldn't cry for him quite yet. This year's left fielder should get plenty of playing time despite this move. First, you have to count on Carlos Guillen to miss some time. He has played 109, 148, 149, 75, and 135 games in the field in his years as a Tiger. Even in his healthy seasons, he seems likely to miss at least 15 games for some nagging injury. Throw in the fact that he will be completing a rehab of some severe back spasms, and he's not likely to be counted on for more than 130 games next year. You have to think that this could spell the end for Gary Sheffield. Would they release him in Spring Training with 499 career homers? Root for him to reach his milestone today so he's not forced into the lineup when he doesn't deserve to be. Regardless, Sheffield is not likely to play 153 games at designated hitter next year. It will be Magglio Ordonez and Guillen who will be taking his place, meaning plenty of playing time for Matt Joyce.

The real intriguing story here is the catcher situation. This decision means one of two things: Dusty Ryan has done enough to earn the starting catching job next year or the Tigers have a trade in place for next year's catcher. Remember last season when it was announced Carlos Guillen's move to first was permanent? It seems likely to me that the Edgar Renteria deal had already been agreed upon at that point, only to be announced right after the World Series. Who could it be? Taylor Teagarden's strong September has probably left the Rangers willing to trade Gerald Laird and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Matt Wieters' emergence may have the Orioles shopping Ramon Hernandez. Those aren't great names, but they are all better than Sardinha.

As for Dusty Ryan, he has shown himself to be ready for at least a part time catching role next year. The thought of he and Inge "platooning" didn't make much sense to me, because both are much better against left-handed pitching. It seems likely that he will be teamed up with one of the many veteran catchers available this offseason. More on them later when I put up final projections for the Elias Rankings.

Top 30 Revisited

I'm not sure if I ever posted my preseason Top 30 prospects list here. Frankly, when my hard drive crashed, I thought I had lost it forever. When my Number 2 prospect started having one of the worst years of anybody in AAA or the Majors, I can honestly say I was glad that it was lost forever. Well, I found it. I wanted to go over this and laugh at how big of an idiot I was before the season. In the meantime, I'll color code all of the players to show how they moved this year.

Green means they took a big step forward this year.
Lime green suggests they took a small step in the right direction.
Black will be used in the place of yellow for readability and means the guy stood still this year.
Orange represents a slight step backward.
Red shows a player falling off the map.

1. Rick Porcello- Will remain number 1 this offseason barring massive shoulder surgery. Given that there has been no report of anything close to that, he should be safe. He really wasn't that good in Lakeland, but there was still a lot to like.
2. Yorman Bazardo- Yeah, I had him #2. Call it a hunch. Call it stupidity. Call it a hidden shoulder injury affecting his play all year, but a 6.72 ERA and a loss in velocity will move you down from here. A free agent in a matter of weeks, it wouldn't surprise me if Bazardo didn't return. Even if he did, he'd be lucky to crack the top 30.
3. Michael Hollimon- Had a bit of an off year, but we now know why. Still, he'll be a 27 year old infielder who may not be cut out for shortstop upon his return. It will be imperative for him to show this year was an injury-caused blip lest he be cast in the utility role forever. For now, I'd put Hollimon in the 10-15 prospect range right now.
4. Jeff Larish- At four because the farm wasn't too strong, Larish is blocked from first base through 2015 for now. Still, he'd need to do better than he did this year to garner consideration for any type of job. I'd tentatively put him in the 5-10 range before next year.
5. James Skelton- The .098 isolated power number is what has me worried more than the perception that he's too light. I'd tentatively move him down slightly, but there's not many guys that can zoom past him.
6. Charlie Furbush- Got a bit too wrapped up in the strong opening year campaign. After missing this year with Tommy John surgery, it's entirely possible that he's a sleeper for the next two seasons. Still, he won't be anywhere near the top ten next year. The success rate of Tommy John recoveries keeps him from being red.
   
7. Matt Joyce- Even though I doubted his candidacy, this is about as high as you will see Joyce in any ranking. He's been a pleasant surprise this year and seems to have a hold on the left field job for the time being.
8. Danny Worth- He was about what I expected this year. The shoulder injury sounds serious and could keep him from being a dark horse next spring. I'll probably keep him in right about the same area.
9. Scott Sizemore- A bit of a disappointment before the hand injury, and a tremendous disappointment once you realize he was shut down after June 2. He'll take a slight drop in the rankings this year.
10. Virgil Vasquez- Struggled in AAA and didn't get a call in September. Could be at risk of losing his 40 man roster spot over the winter. Currently orange, but was close to red this year.
11. Brandon Hamilton- Still young, so the control problems in West Michigan are excusable. Evidently, he was around the plate, so it wasn't Eric Beattie bad. He'll get another shot this year and could be a breakout candidate.
12. Deik Scram- I had him too high. Somewhat overrated because he was drafted as a senior, Scram struggled in Erie this year despite being old for the league. I doubt he cracks my top 30 this offseason.
13. Casey Crosby- On the road back from Tommy John surgery, Crosby made a few appearances in the GCL. He'll probably move up in the rankings, but only because some guys ahead of him moved down. A nice breakout candidate for 2009.
14. Jordan Tata- While I don't have enough inside information to come to this conclusion, I would suspect the fall of Jordan Tata could be one of the biggest strikes against the Tigers' training/medical staff. He's gone from possible fill-in to the brink of retirement this year. Nobody is redder than Tata.
15. Cale Iorg- I wanted to see some results before ranking him aggressively. Considering he was coming off a two year break, the .251/.329/.405 line in Lakeland doesn't look to shabby. Combined with the high strikeouts, it's not the type of line you want from a top prospect. He get's a lime green for not embarrassing himself, but needs a big year in Erie next year.
16. Alexis Espinoza- Struggled in the GCL. I would chalk it up to a big jump from the Venezuelan Leagues to the US leagues, but Luis Palacios, Lester Oliveros, Victor Larez, and Mauricio Robles seemed to handle it pretty well.
17. Francisco Cruceta- Cruceta's season reminds me of an old Simpsons episode, where the comet is headed for town and everybody heads for the Flanders' disaster shelter. At the end, the comet turns out to be a pebble that shatters the shelter after everybody had left. Starting the season on the restricted list because of visa issues, there were some lofty expectations for Cruceta, who ended up back in Toledo because he couldn't throw his fastball for a strike. He's red because I don't think he'll be back with the organization next year.
18. Duane Below- There are legitimate doubts about whether he has the arsenal to get hitters out at a higher level. As soon as the strikeouts dipped below 9 an inning, I started listening to those doubts. He'll probably be around 30 after the season.
19. Brent Clevlen- I'm not sure what to make of Clevlen. The strikeouts remained an issue, and his BABIP was very high this year. It seems to suggest that he was pretty lucky, even after his luck ran out in August. Out of options next year, the Tigers would be wise to try and swap him for a relief project.
20. Luke French- Frankly, I'm not sure why I had French so high. His strikeouts plummeted this year. There's still something there, but he'll not only need a big year next year, he'll need a shot at one.
21. Clete Thomas- A strong year from Clete. Even with the late-season elbow injury, he should be in the team's plans, even if he's not ready for spring training. Because he spent more than 45 days on the active roster, Thomas will not be rookie eligible next season.
    
22. Wilkin Ramirez- The scary thing is that this is right around the consensus spot for Wilkin coming into the season. The strikeouts were still there in Erie, and his BABIP was above .400. Even though he is a fast dude, there is reason to be concerned. Still, he should take a big step forward.
23. Michael Hernandez- I did my rankings before he was shipped out for Armando Galarraga. The ironic part is that Hernandez has already paid off in more ways than anybody on this list, including Matt Joyce. Despite that, he's since been released by Texas and finished the year in low A ball for the Mets. It was a big step back for a guy dealt for the Tigers' best starting pitcher this year.
24. Clay Rapada- I don't see why the organization felt it necessary to have Casey Fossum on the roster while Rapada was pitching in Toledo. He's in place to be a member of next year's bullpen, but watch out for that shoulder. There were problems in spring and he even spent some time on the disabled list early in the year. That's cause for concern. Rapada, due to having 45 days on the active roster prior to September 1, will not be eligible for next year's rankings.
25. Noah Krol- Typically, I'm not very bullish when it comes to low level relief prospects. I should have stuck to those guns here, as Krol did not put up the type of age 24 season that justifies keeping a reliever on this list.
26. Brett Jensen- The Tigers' minor league relievers tend to have problems recovering from Tommy John surgery for whatever reason. P.J. Finigan still isn't back from his problems last year, and Orlando Perdomo went back under the knife during his rehab process. Watch Jensen closely and see if he can get back to full strength. Until he does, he's off the list.
27. Andrew Kown- Whoops. Released this summer, Kown has since latched on with the Nationals, and put together 17 quality innings for AAA Columbus.
28. Luke Putkonen- "Minor" offseason shoulder surgery and bouts with shoulder problems all year give me legitimate doubts that Putkonen will stay healthy enough to move up the ladder. That he returned to pitching after having his shoulder checked out by the Tigers' medical staff is hardly reassuring.
29. Ryan Strieby- A nice power breakout, but I still have doubts that he can hit enough to crack the majors.
30. Brennan Boesch- Another iffy year for Boesch, who needs to have a Wilkin-like performance in Erie next year to revive his prospect status.
    

Toledo's Lineup Tonight

Freddy Guzman LF
Timo Perez DH
Mike Hessman SS
Jeff Larish 3B
Brent Clevlen CF
Matt Joyce RF
Fernando Seguignol 1B
Erick Almonte 2B
Max St. Pierre C

I was taken aback by this lineup. I read somewhere that Leyland wanted Larish playing in places other than first base. I assumed if Larish ended up at third, Hessman would be at first. I'm curious how Hessman and Larish played on the left side of the infield, as both are being challenged defensively.

What is there to lose by doing this? Maybe the team will give up a few more hits, but guys blocked by incumbents need to be able to play multiple positions to secure a bench spot in the future.

Scanning the System - Left Field

Since Craig Monroe's implosion last year, several players have gotten time in left field for the Tigers. Ryan Raburn, Marcus Thames, Timo Perez, Cameron Maybin, Mike Hessman, Jacque Jones, Clete Thomas, Brandon Inge, Gary Sheffield, and Matt Joyce are some guys just to name a few. Is Matt Joyce finally the answer? If not, is there help on the way? Let's find out.

Detroit:

Matt Joyce, 23
Actual: .212/.276/.519 (.299/.367/.536 Toledo)
Expected: .231/.293/.538 (.289/.358/.526 Toledo)

Joyce has never been known for his plate discipline, and that has been exposed lately. He can handle the position defensively, but if he can't right this ship soon, one of the several other options will have to be ready.

Marcus Thames, 31
Actual: .246/.310/.415
Expected: .277/.338/446

Ryan Raburn, 27
Actual: .214/.298/.381
Expected: .214/.298/.381

Jacque Jones, 33
Actual: .165/.244/.253
Expected: .165/.244/.253

Gary Sheffield, 39
Actual: .213/.344/.338
Expected: .206/.338/.331

Marcus Thames needs to face mostly lefties. If he gets an everyday job, he will be exposed. I may have been a bit wrong about Raburn, as he looked way overmatched the other night. He still should be next in line. Yes, Jacque Jones was that bad. I've got nothing more to say on Sheffield.

Toledo:
Jackson Melian, 28
Actual: .260/.287/.385
Expected: .218/.247/.343

Timo Perez, 33
Actual: .223/.280/.382
Expected: .280/.331/.439

Melian is just filler, and it turns out he's not doing much of a job filling a spot. Timo Perez hasn't fallen off of a cliff as it may seem. He'll turn it around in time, but still doesn't deserve a big league spot.

Erie:
Wilkin Ramirez, 22
Actual: .316/.365/.556
Expected: .199/.257/.439

A closer look really takes all of the shine off. Strikeouts have always been a problem with Ramirez. This year, he just happens to be getting very lucky. You don't hit .427 on balls in play and sustain it. The "expected" .199 batting average may seem harsh, but given his track record, the line looks fairly reasonable. It could get ugly if this mirage leads to a spot on the major league roster.

Lakeland:
Brandon Timm, 23
Actual: .239/.317/.376
Expected: .211/.293/.348

Pedro Cotto, 25
Actual: .169/.243/.200
Expected: .184/.257/.215

Timm, the 9th round pick in 2004, has moved up a level every year and really hasn't done anything to impress. Pedro Cotto is the Tigers' Toby Flenderson. He's apparently a very nice guy, but he is just awful at everything. Justin Justice was in left for Lakeland, but moved to center field upon his promotion to Erie.

West Michigan:
Marc McBratney, 23
Actual: .186/.260/.279
Expected: .151/.229/.244

Joe Tucker, 24
Actual: .289/.360/.355
Expected: .231/.310/.297

McBratney has been shipped off to extended spring training. For the undrafted free agent, the end of the road is probably near. Tucker is a utility man without much utility. Kody Kaiser is also getting some time out in left field, and Jordan Newton has long been rumored to be headed to the outfield.

VSL Tigers:
Ivan Espinoza, 19
Actual: .250/.298/.269
Expected: .154/.210/.173

The other Espinoza is one of the many Tigers in Venezuela struggling right now. The unrelated Alexis has graduated from the VSL and will likely be playing in the Gulf Coast League starting in June.

Like third base, left field is a position that is very thin throughout the organization. Also like third base, not many players who end up in left field play there in the minor leagues. If you are looking for left field help, next week's rundown of centerfielders may give a better idea of what is in the pipeline. The most disappointing part of this analysis was the revelation that Wilkin Ramirez probably isn't for real. Considering all of the hype around him for so long, it seemed like he has finally turned a corner. I'm not so sure he's anything more than trade bait at this point.

How About That?

Backs against the wall and facing their sixth straight loss while facing the league's best closer, the Tigers scrape out a victory. I'm typically very hard on the follies "small ball," but sometimes you need to scrape one out. After Matt Joyce reached on an infield single, Edgar Renteria reached on an error by Julio Lugo. This set up one of the few situations where a successful sacrifice bunt actually increases the batting team's chances of winning a game. (It may be an optimal strategy at other times, but only because of the likelihood of an accidental single or fielding error.) After Pudge got the bunt down, Curtis Granderson made contact getting the tying run home to tie the game at 9-9. This set up Placido Polanco's fifth hit of the game: a broken bat bloop single just over Lugo's head. It will be tough to predict where the team goes after this one, but the win helps to avoid what could have been a demoralizing loss after blowing and 8-4 lead in the late innings. If you are going to pull one out against Papelbon, that is the way to do it. Frankly, anything to make "Red Sox Nation" suffer a painful loss is enough for me.

Postgame Thoughts

• 10 walks and 5 singles will only net you three runs. A lot of anti-sabermetric people will scream "Walks only clog the bases!" The problem today wasn't the walks, it was the pop-outs and the weak contact. What is often misunderstood by the Dusty Bakers of the world is that you get 27 outs, and those walks don't cost you any of those 27 outs.
• On the subject of bashing small ball: how about when Steve Phillips was gushing over Magglio Ordonez being able to hit the ball the other way, and he immediately bounces into a 4-6-3 double play? Ground balls to second base have been glorified to no end when they move a runner up, but they are hardly an example of doing the job. If somebody says a player "did his job" by moving the runner up, you can kindly point to a win expectation chart and show that in most cases you are better off with a runner on second and N outs compared to a runner on third with N+1 outs.
  
• Gary Sheffield was loafing his whole time in left field. If he wants to play out there to get his bat going, he needs to act like he wants to play out there. There was a liner in the left-center gap, where he stopped as soon as he saw Granderson was running after it. There was a catchable blooper into shallow left field, that I thought he may have had a chance at, but he was merely jogging after the ball. Even the catch against the wall involved a lolly-gagging pre-amble. This was an unacceptable defensive effort by Sheffield, and I shudder to see him try to throw a winning run out at the plate. For a while now, all he has needed is about a month's rest to get the shoulder and finger healthy while getting him healthy. Playing him in the outfield, when there are capable offensive and defensive players who can fill his spot, is an unacceptable decision.
• It really was an interesting moment when Hideki Okajima was brought into the game to face Matt Joyce. It was one of the rare moments where a left-handed pitcher is brought into face a left-handed hitter and both have reverse platoon splits. It was either a brilliant move by Terry Francona to induce the right-handed pinch hitter, or a poor decision by both managers that happened to pay off for the Tigers. I'd have left Joyce in. The decision to bring in Thames was an interesting one. It seemed to pay off with a single, but who's to say Joyce wouldn't have done better?
• A comparison I thought of for Matt Joyce: Bobby Higginson without plus plate discipline.
• One quick note on service time. Orel Hershiser was repeatedly saying that Aquilino Lopez is "a 32 year-old with just over 1 year of service time." Had I not remembered him spending an entire season as Toronto's closer five years ago, I wouldn't have looked it up, but Lopez came into the season with 1.152 years of service time according to the Media Guide. That's not 1 year plus another 152/1000 years. That figure means 1 year plus 152 days of service, with 172 days constituting a full season. It's an easy mistake to make at first glance, and I'm not going to chastise Hershiser, who is one of ESPN's best commentators, but wanted to point out a warning when looking at service time numbers. At some point when I get better at computers, I plan to have a roster on the site with every player's up-to-date service time included. The estimated time for arrival on that is roughly 2014.
  
• I was very disappointed to see no Erin Andrews tonight. I thought she had Monday games, and was looking forward to her... insight.
  
• Free Ryan Raburn!
  

Removing the Jacque Strap

Jacque Jones has been designated for assignment. Matt Joyce has been called up to replace him. It's interesting to me that Joyce gets the call instead of Thomas, who faired well in his time with the big club.

Joyce bats left-handed, and plays a strong defense anywhere in the outfield. Like Clete Thomas, he has a tremendous arm, but he's a different type of hitter. While Thomas is more of a spray hitter, Joyce has hit for power in his career. He's off to a fast start in Toledo, hitting .299/.367/.536.

I'm not sure how the left field situation will shake out. I'd still like to see Raburn get a lion's share of the playing time, but they probably didn't bring Joyce up to ride pine. There will likely be some sort of time share between Raburn, Joyce, Marcus Thames, and Brandon Inge for the time being. Regardless, it's a step up from the punch-less Jones.

Okay, now it seems as if Gary Sheffield is playing left field at his own request to get his bat going. That seems like a shock, especially without the corresponding move of Carlos Guillen to designated hitter. I'll let some time go by to pass judgement, but it's a peculiar move to say the least.