Amazing what you can miss in a day...

Thanks to the great service at Comcast, much of the Jacksonville, FL area was without cable and internet yesterday. While I really don't like boring my eight readers with personal details, it sets up the shock I had when I checked up on the Tigers during my lunch break today.

The most obvious shock was the wave of transactions before and after last night's game.

Recalling Wilkin Ramirez makes sense. Curtis Granderson was in need of a day off, and there is a shortage of right-handed bats on the team. If you can make a roster move for a spot starting pitcher, why not for a spot starting outfielder? Sending down Fien also makes sense. His last two outings have been rough.

I particularly liked Jim Leyland's quotes about this from MLB.com:

"We might be tinkering with our rosters for the next month or so," Leyland said. "If we overtax our bullpen tonight, we may send [Ramirez] back down tomorrow. He'll start tonight and who knows, that could be it. For one day, we have enough [rested arms] in our bullpen so we went out and added another right-handed bat."

...

"We're not trying to reinvent the wheel here," Leyland said. "If you have the flexibility with your Major League roster, why not tinker with it. So don't read too much into this move."

It makes sense to me to utilize roster flexibility and take advantage of the short distance between Toledo and Detroit. It's a way to effectively expand the roster for the rest of the season. In a tight division race, it's the type of strategy that could make a huge difference.

After the game, Ramirez, no longer needed to spell Granderson, was sent back to Toledo along with Dusty Ryan (Honestly, was he even on the roster?). Chris Lambert, effectively taking Fien's place on the roster, and top catching prospect Alex Avila came up.

Lambert is a quality choice. He's been rolling lately. Had I been a motivated blogger, you would have seen me calling for his promotion back when Eddie Bonine got the spot start.

Avila is interesting, because there are procedural roster implications to this move.

1. He was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2011 season. He'll now be using up a 40 man roster spot that could be used on somebody else for two years.
   
2. He'll also be using up option years he wouldn't have otherwise been using if he's not ready for the big leagues. Recent history shows that there is a learning curve for top catching prospects once they reach the Majors. Look no further than Chris Ianetta, J.R. Towles, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero, and Matt Wieters as guys who came up with high expectations and took (or are still taking) years to live up to them. It's definitely a risk that could come back to bite the Tigers if Avila runs out of options as he's reaching his potential.
3. He'll probably be riding a lot of pine. For whatever reason, Gerald Laird is still starting somewhere around 10 games per week. This, however, could be an intended benefit of purchasing Avila's contract. How could that be? Catchers take quite a toll. Often, in the minors, catchers' workloads are built up gradually, much like pitchers. Rather than have him start 20-25 more games with Erie the rest of the year, they may be wanting to limit his workload, much like a pitcher in his first professional season. Having him sit the bench in the bigs could provide him that opportunity, while allowing him to get comfortable instead of being shell shocked in April.

Finally, these moves are also intriguing because of the new postseason roster rules. Rather than having position player and pitcher quotas, the rules have changed to have players on the 40 man roster as of August 31 eligible. Alex Avila is now eligible for postseason play, if the Tigers make it. This gives the Tigers two choices for backup catcher, rather than the one if Dusty Ryan had remained on the roster and Avila had been called up in September. Cycling players like Ramirez, Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Ryan Perry, and Lambert through the roster give the Tigers an extra look at players if they need to make a decision on who to put on the roster in early October.

Awful Announcing Interviews Granderson

Just a quick interview with Granderson, talking mostly about his TBS duties:

http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/10/aa-interview-with-curtis-granderson.html

He's been very good in the studio, and I'm glad that it's not just my biased self that is pointing this out. The segment last week on stolen bases, timing the pitcher, catcher and base runner for different scenarios was top notch.

How About That?

Backs against the wall and facing their sixth straight loss while facing the league's best closer, the Tigers scrape out a victory. I'm typically very hard on the follies "small ball," but sometimes you need to scrape one out. After Matt Joyce reached on an infield single, Edgar Renteria reached on an error by Julio Lugo. This set up one of the few situations where a successful sacrifice bunt actually increases the batting team's chances of winning a game. (It may be an optimal strategy at other times, but only because of the likelihood of an accidental single or fielding error.) After Pudge got the bunt down, Curtis Granderson made contact getting the tying run home to tie the game at 9-9. This set up Placido Polanco's fifth hit of the game: a broken bat bloop single just over Lugo's head. It will be tough to predict where the team goes after this one, but the win helps to avoid what could have been a demoralizing loss after blowing and 8-4 lead in the late innings. If you are going to pull one out against Papelbon, that is the way to do it. Frankly, anything to make "Red Sox Nation" suffer a painful loss is enough for me.

One Man's Drastic Changes

Much has been made over the drastic changes to the lineup that will be debuted tonight. I'm not convinced that changes to the lineup are the answer any more than I am that a team can get away with one lineup. I have two sets of three lineups to use. One set of lineups for right-handed opponents, one set for left-handed opponents. One lineup is the "everyday" lineup, and the other two account for days off by Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Those two should each be seeing at least one off day every week.

vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF

I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.

vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B

vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C

vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF

It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.

vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF

If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.

vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF

Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.

I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.

Another One Bites the Dust

Virgil Vasquez was placed on Toledo's disabled list with right shoulder tendinitis. This could be minor, but it's yet another injury that has struck a reserve starting pitcher. Vasquez has struggled in his past few starts, so something may have been up. Thank God for the emergence of Armando Galarraga. It also looks like Yorman Bazardo will be taking the spot of Vasquez. Hopefully, he can re-emerge in a starting role.

Curtis Granderson is in tonight's lineup. To make room, Clete Thomas was optioned out. Could Jacque Jones have saved his job by finally hitting for some power last night? Thomas did surprisingly well in his time up with the club, but Granderson is clearly a significant improvement, and could be a big spark plug for a team that still could use one.

Transactions Roundup

It's been a long week, and I wanted to get caught up on the transactions I missed.


Tony Giarratano Released
A setback in his rehab was reported last month, and the feable Tony Giarratano era came to a screaching halt with his release last week. It became clear that he was never going to be able to stay healthy enough to play shortstop for the Tigers. The ultimate result of this transaction is a free roster spot, and the team's medical resources are able to be focused on players who have played since 2006.


Curtis Granderson Signs Extension
5 years/30.25 Million with an option year is an absolute steal. I had Granderson making 26 million through arbitration leading up to free agency. Yes, this deal only buys out one or two free agency years, but somebody of Granderson's on and off-field value is worth much more than this.

Acquired Armando Galarraga from Texas for Mike Hernandez
Undoubtedly, this will be bemoaned by minor league hounds, who grow attached and overrate anybody in the Tigers minor league system (see Bierd, Randor). This is still a solid trade. Galarraga had been designated for assigment by Texas last week, similar to Yorman Bazardo last year. Already 26, Galarraga missed much of 2002 and 2003 recovering from Tommy John Surgery and had further elbow problems in 2006, delaying his arrival. With one option year left, Galarraga will probably be in Toledo's rotation this year. I think this is a fine pickup, given his career strikeout rates.

Mike Hernandez is a fine story, picked out of a tryout camp a year after finishing college, he got off to a great start in both 2006 and 2007, but cooled off significantly. We are still talking about a 24-year old restricted to first-base with a career .320 minor league OBP. This is not a big loss.

More on the Pen

Another reliever with options got sent down instead of Jason Grilli. A lot of griping has gone on about the bullpen this year, and there was a large demand for adding to the bullpen at the trading deadline. Of course, if the best seven relievers were on the team, the problem would be slightly alleviated. I wanted to update the Win expectancy numbers from two weeks ago, and try to pick out the best bullpen.

Todd Jones 1.161
Bobby Seay 0.965
Joel Zumaya 0.662 (Before today)
Chad Durbin 0.438
Tim Byrdak 0.007
Yorman Bazardo -0.016
Eulogio De La Cruz -0.030
Aquilino Lopez -0.044
Jose Capellan -0.067
Macay McBride -0.127
Zach Miner -0.230
Fernando Rodney -0.276
Jason Grilli -0.620

I know I've turned this place into a Grilli bash fest, but one has to wonder what he has to do to leave the team. Granted, guys I've been trumpeting like Bazardo, Lopez, Capellan, and now Miner have also been bad. Fernando Rodney has moved up this list significantly since the last time. Bazardo is probably low because he's been placed into such low leverage situations so far.

One more thing i wanted to show was the leverage calculation that BP does. Basically, a player with a leverage of 1 is brought into average situations. Higher than one and a player is brought into situations with the game on the line, and lower than one and they are brought into mopup roles. This will give us an idea of how relievers are being used.

Todd Jones 1.83
Fernando Rodney 1.54
Joel Zumaya 1.34
Zach Miner 1.29
Macay McBride 1.28
Tim Byrdak 1.24
Chad Durbin 1.20
Jose Capellan 1.16
Jason Grilli 0.95
Bobby Seay 0.82
Aquilino Lopez 0.67
Yorman Bazardo 0.42
Eulogio De La Cruz 0.23

Grilli was much lower last year, but still should be down in the Bazardo DLC I'd really like to see more Bazardo, and Bobby Seay should be used much more often over Byrdak. The good news is that September will bring about all of the castoffs from Toledo. Hopefully guys like Capellan, Bazardo and De La Cruz get opportunities in tight spots, especially if Zumaya isn't 100%, which he appeared not to be today.

Other Thoughts
Ryan Raburn should be in the starting lineup, especially in days like today when Sean Casey is DH-ing. There's no excuse for leaving a hot bat out of a struggling lineup two straight days.

Part of me wonders if Gary Sheffield plays another game. If he retires with the shoulder problem, the battle over who gets the last two years of that contract could get interesting and heated.

It would be nice if Jeff Larish got a bit of an audition this September. If he could show he belongs in the bigs, the team could save some big money in the off-season going after a free agent.

This is the second straight season Curtis Granderson's bat has come to a screeching halt towards the end of August. The slump isn't long enough to be considered significant yet, but it's getting to the point where worry needs to kick in. He really is an important part of this lineup.