Since Craig Monroe's implosion last year, several players have gotten time in left field for the Tigers. Ryan Raburn, Marcus Thames, Timo Perez, Cameron Maybin, Mike Hessman, Jacque Jones, Clete Thomas, Brandon Inge, Gary Sheffield, and Matt Joyce are some guys just to name a few. Is Matt Joyce finally the answer? If not, is there help on the way? Let's find out.
Detroit:
Matt Joyce, 23
Actual: .212/.276/.519 (.299/.367/.536 Toledo)
Expected: .231/.293/.538 (.289/.358/.526 Toledo)
Joyce has never been known for his plate discipline, and that has been exposed lately. He can handle the position defensively, but if he can't right this ship soon, one of the several other options will have to be ready.
Marcus Thames, 31
Actual: .246/.310/.415
Expected: .277/.338/446
Ryan Raburn, 27
Actual: .214/.298/.381
Expected: .214/.298/.381
Jacque Jones, 33
Actual: .165/.244/.253
Expected: .165/.244/.253
Gary Sheffield, 39
Actual: .213/.344/.338
Expected: .206/.338/.331
Marcus Thames needs to face mostly lefties. If he gets an everyday job, he will be exposed. I may have been a bit wrong about Raburn, as he looked way overmatched the other night. He still should be next in line. Yes, Jacque Jones was that bad. I've got nothing more to say on Sheffield.
Toledo:
Jackson Melian, 28
Actual: .260/.287/.385
Expected: .218/.247/.343
Timo Perez, 33
Actual: .223/.280/.382
Expected: .280/.331/.439
Melian is just filler, and it turns out he's not doing much of a job filling a spot. Timo Perez hasn't fallen off of a cliff as it may seem. He'll turn it around in time, but still doesn't deserve a big league spot.
Erie:
Wilkin Ramirez, 22
Actual: .316/.365/.556
Expected: .199/.257/.439
A closer look really takes all of the shine off. Strikeouts have always been a problem with Ramirez. This year, he just happens to be getting very lucky. You don't hit .427 on balls in play and sustain it. The "expected" .199 batting average may seem harsh, but given his track record, the line looks fairly reasonable. It could get ugly if this mirage leads to a spot on the major league roster.
Lakeland:
Brandon Timm, 23
Actual: .239/.317/.376
Expected: .211/.293/.348
Pedro Cotto, 25
Actual: .169/.243/.200
Expected: .184/.257/.215
Timm, the 9th round pick in 2004, has moved up a level every year and really hasn't done anything to impress. Pedro Cotto is the Tigers' Toby Flenderson. He's apparently a very nice guy, but he is just awful at everything. Justin Justice was in left for Lakeland, but moved to center field upon his promotion to Erie.
West Michigan:
Marc McBratney, 23
Actual: .186/.260/.279
Expected: .151/.229/.244
Joe Tucker, 24
Actual: .289/.360/.355
Expected: .231/.310/.297
McBratney has been shipped off to extended spring training. For the undrafted free agent, the end of the road is probably near. Tucker is a utility man without much utility. Kody Kaiser is also getting some time out in left field, and Jordan Newton has long been rumored to be headed to the outfield.
VSL Tigers:
Ivan Espinoza, 19
Actual: .250/.298/.269
Expected: .154/.210/.173
The other Espinoza is one of the many Tigers in Venezuela struggling right now. The unrelated Alexis has graduated from the VSL and will likely be playing in the Gulf Coast League starting in June.
Like third base, left field is a position that is very thin throughout the organization. Also like third base, not many players who end up in left field play there in the minor leagues. If you are looking for left field help, next week's rundown of centerfielders may give a better idea of what is in the pipeline. The most disappointing part of this analysis was the revelation that Wilkin Ramirez probably isn't for real. Considering all of the hype around him for so long, it seemed like he has finally turned a corner. I'm not so sure he's anything more than trade bait at this point.
Showing posts with label Marcus Thames. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marcus Thames. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Monday, May 05, 2008
Removing the Jacque Strap
Jacque Jones has been designated for assignment. Matt Joyce has been called up to replace him. It's interesting to me that Joyce gets the call instead of Thomas, who faired well in his time with the big club.
Joyce bats left-handed, and plays a strong defense anywhere in the outfield. Like Clete Thomas, he has a tremendous arm, but he's a different type of hitter. While Thomas is more of a spray hitter, Joyce has hit for power in his career. He's off to a fast start in Toledo, hitting .299/.367/.536.
I'm not sure how the left field situation will shake out. I'd still like to see Raburn get a lion's share of the playing time, but they probably didn't bring Joyce up to ride pine. There will likely be some sort of time share between Raburn, Joyce, Marcus Thames, and Brandon Inge for the time being. Regardless, it's a step up from the punch-less Jones.
Okay, now it seems as if Gary Sheffield is playing left field at his own request to get his bat going. That seems like a shock, especially without the corresponding move of Carlos Guillen to designated hitter. I'll let some time go by to pass judgement, but it's a peculiar move to say the least.
Joyce bats left-handed, and plays a strong defense anywhere in the outfield. Like Clete Thomas, he has a tremendous arm, but he's a different type of hitter. While Thomas is more of a spray hitter, Joyce has hit for power in his career. He's off to a fast start in Toledo, hitting .299/.367/.536.
I'm not sure how the left field situation will shake out. I'd still like to see Raburn get a lion's share of the playing time, but they probably didn't bring Joyce up to ride pine. There will likely be some sort of time share between Raburn, Joyce, Marcus Thames, and Brandon Inge for the time being. Regardless, it's a step up from the punch-less Jones.
Okay, now it seems as if Gary Sheffield is playing left field at his own request to get his bat going. That seems like a shock, especially without the corresponding move of Carlos Guillen to designated hitter. I'll let some time go by to pass judgement, but it's a peculiar move to say the least.
One Man's Drastic Changes
Much has been made over the drastic changes to the lineup that will be debuted tonight. I'm not convinced that changes to the lineup are the answer any more than I am that a team can get away with one lineup. I have two sets of three lineups to use. One set of lineups for right-handed opponents, one set for left-handed opponents. One lineup is the "everyday" lineup, and the other two account for days off by Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Those two should each be seeing at least one off day every week.
vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.
vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B
vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C
vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF
It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.
vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF
If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.
vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF
Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.
I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.
vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.
vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B
vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C
vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF
It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.
vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF
If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.
vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF
Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.
I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Time for the Jacque Jones Era to End
I really did not like the Jacque Jones acquisition at the time it was made. Sure, Omar Infante wasn't that big of a loss, and the Cubs were covering the salary difference, so it was worth a shot. After a while, I bought into the fact that Jones played a really good outfield last year. My main beef at the time wasn't with the trade or Jones' defense, he really isn't any better than the internal alternatives: Ryan Raburn, Marcus Thames, and the now displaced Brandon Inge. The misplay on the line-drive double in the 7th inning was the final straw to me. While I'm not one to tolerate a poor offensive performance, it can be justified with a great defensive performance. Jones has been inferior in the field to every one of his positional competitors this year, even Marcus Thames.
It was an open debate as to whether Jacque Jones' bat was in decline last season or if it was merely a one year slump. At age 32, either could have been true. The biggest decline from 2006 to 2007 was his power. He fell from 27 home runs to a meager five in 2007. His isolated power dropped from an acceptable .214 to a ghastly .115. It was worth seeing if his bad could rebound (it hasn't), especially if he can play better defense than his alternatives (he hasn't). When you have a career OBP of just .327 and you are playing a power spot, you need either your power or your defense to keep you in the lineup. The fact that a superior hitter in Ryan Raburn is coming in as a defensive replacement is a paradox to say the least.
The Tigers are on the hook for $3-million dollars. It's getting to the point where they have to decide if that money is best spent giving Jacque Jones and his .522 OPS time to straighten out an offensive game that may not exist, or if they should cut bait and go to a time share between superior options in Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, and especially Ryan Raburn. If the concern is to have a left-handed bat in the lineup, here are the batting lines for all of the candidates against right-handed pitchers the past two seasons:
'07
Raburn 84 PA, .338/.349/.563
Jones 375 PA, .283/.332/.397
Thames 193 PA, .209/.249/.456
Inge 447 PA, .209/.281/.340
'08
Raburn 22 PA, .278/.409/.556
Jones 82 PA, .183/.268/.282
Thames 27 PA, .240/.296/.240
Inge 85 PA, .265/.381/.471
Ryan Raburn's numbers stand out, while Inge and Thames have had problems hitting right-handed pitchers in their careers. While the sample size issues apply, it's not like Raburn was struggling against right-handed pitchers in the minors. It's pretty clear that Jacque Jones is in the lineup because he bats from the left side, but his raises a question over the point of having a left-handed bat in the lineup. If the reason is to have somebody who hits from the left side, Jones is your guy. If the motive is to have somebody who can do damage against right-handed pitchers, it's probably best to finally give the every day job to the guy who is long overdue for the opportunity. Raburn has done everything in his power to have earned the starting left field job over the past year. It's high time he gets what he deserves.
Free Ryan Raburn!
It was an open debate as to whether Jacque Jones' bat was in decline last season or if it was merely a one year slump. At age 32, either could have been true. The biggest decline from 2006 to 2007 was his power. He fell from 27 home runs to a meager five in 2007. His isolated power dropped from an acceptable .214 to a ghastly .115. It was worth seeing if his bad could rebound (it hasn't), especially if he can play better defense than his alternatives (he hasn't). When you have a career OBP of just .327 and you are playing a power spot, you need either your power or your defense to keep you in the lineup. The fact that a superior hitter in Ryan Raburn is coming in as a defensive replacement is a paradox to say the least.
The Tigers are on the hook for $3-million dollars. It's getting to the point where they have to decide if that money is best spent giving Jacque Jones and his .522 OPS time to straighten out an offensive game that may not exist, or if they should cut bait and go to a time share between superior options in Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, and especially Ryan Raburn. If the concern is to have a left-handed bat in the lineup, here are the batting lines for all of the candidates against right-handed pitchers the past two seasons:
'07
Raburn 84 PA, .338/.349/.563
Jones 375 PA, .283/.332/.397
Thames 193 PA, .209/.249/.456
Inge 447 PA, .209/.281/.340
'08
Raburn 22 PA, .278/.409/.556
Jones 82 PA, .183/.268/.282
Thames 27 PA, .240/.296/.240
Inge 85 PA, .265/.381/.471
Ryan Raburn's numbers stand out, while Inge and Thames have had problems hitting right-handed pitchers in their careers. While the sample size issues apply, it's not like Raburn was struggling against right-handed pitchers in the minors. It's pretty clear that Jacque Jones is in the lineup because he bats from the left side, but his raises a question over the point of having a left-handed bat in the lineup. If the reason is to have somebody who hits from the left side, Jones is your guy. If the motive is to have somebody who can do damage against right-handed pitchers, it's probably best to finally give the every day job to the guy who is long overdue for the opportunity. Raburn has done everything in his power to have earned the starting left field job over the past year. It's high time he gets what he deserves.
Free Ryan Raburn!
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Marcus Thames Avoids Arbitration
As reported on the Tigers official site and the MLB.com transactions page, the Tigers have avoided arbitration on Marcus Thames, signing him to a one-year deal. I cannot find the terms anywhere, but if I was to guess, I would say this is on the order of $1.5 million.
I would imagine Seay will sign shortly. The delay on Miguel Cabrera probably has to do with long term negotiations. The Tigers may bite the bullet and sign him for one year if things can't be worked out over the long term.
For an update, there still haven't been any terms disclosed on the contract. Believe it or not, a player of Thames' caliber could probably justify $5-8 million on the open market, so the deal will probably come at a discount.
In somewhat related news that I found out by doing a Google News search of "Thames," the River Thames apparently had flooding issues yesterday. It doesn't appear as if anybody is hurt, but I wish the best to our friends the Brits.
Danny Knobler is now reporting the deal is worth $1.275 million, a good deal for a player who could play a key role in the event of injury.
I would imagine Seay will sign shortly. The delay on Miguel Cabrera probably has to do with long term negotiations. The Tigers may bite the bullet and sign him for one year if things can't be worked out over the long term.
For an update, there still haven't been any terms disclosed on the contract. Believe it or not, a player of Thames' caliber could probably justify $5-8 million on the open market, so the deal will probably come at a discount.
In somewhat related news that I found out by doing a Google News search of "Thames," the River Thames apparently had flooding issues yesterday. It doesn't appear as if anybody is hurt, but I wish the best to our friends the Brits.
Danny Knobler is now reporting the deal is worth $1.275 million, a good deal for a player who could play a key role in the event of injury.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Arbitration Day and More Signings
Midnight tonight brings about the deadline for tendering arbitration eligible players a contract. Seven Tigers, listed below are up for arbitration this year:
-Tim Byrdak (Signed $715,000 contract, avoiding arbitration)
-Miguel Cabrera
-Chad Durbin (non-tendered)
-Nate Robertson
-Bobby Seay
-Marcus Thames
-Dontrelle Willis
I will update this as the day goes along.
If I had to guess, I would say all will be tendered a contract. Chad Durbin is probably the most doubtful of the bunch, as his swingman role can be easily replaced by Yorman Bazardo. There seems to be a sentiment that Marcus Thames is expendable now, but so long as Jacque Jones and Curtis Granderson are roming the outfield, it will be nice to have two right-handed outfielders on the bench. Ryan Raburn can't platoon with both of them.
Also, Baseball America's much improved Transactions section is reporting Detroit has signed relievers Francis Beltran and Marcelo Perez as well as re-upping starter Jon Connolly.
Beltran is a former highly rated Cubs prospect. His name may soun familiar, because he was part of the package sent from Chicago to Montreal in the Nomar Garciaparra trade. He spent the next couple of seasons in and out of Montreal/Washington's bullpen, and was a reliever for the Orioles' triple-A Norfolk Tides this past season. Old scouting reports I see of Beltran tell me he fits the mold of Cruceta and Bautista with a fastball in the mid-high 90's and command problems. He's had a ton of shoulder problems throughout the years, so I am not certain if the fastball is still that high. Beltran will probably be spending the year in Toledo's bullpen.
Perez has spent his entire career in the Mets system, and was in AA last season. A righthander with low-mid 90's heat, he has always put up good strikeout numbers in the Mets system. Perez will be a candidate for the Toledo and Erie pens in spring training.
Jon Connolly returns to the system, where he will likely be filling into the Erie/Toledo rotation role he filled this past year.
I'd expect a much larger wave of free agents to be announced in the coming weeks. It really won't make too much sense to make predictions of the Toledo rosters until those guys are announced.
edit:
No sooner do I post this than I realize that Chad Durbin was the only non-tender today. Overall, this makes sense. As I mentioned above, Yorman Bazardo seems to be slotted into the sixth starter/swingman role and will probably do a better job at it.
-Tim Byrdak (Signed $715,000 contract, avoiding arbitration)
-Miguel Cabrera
-Chad Durbin (non-tendered)
-Nate Robertson
-Bobby Seay
-Marcus Thames
-Dontrelle Willis
I will update this as the day goes along.
If I had to guess, I would say all will be tendered a contract. Chad Durbin is probably the most doubtful of the bunch, as his swingman role can be easily replaced by Yorman Bazardo. There seems to be a sentiment that Marcus Thames is expendable now, but so long as Jacque Jones and Curtis Granderson are roming the outfield, it will be nice to have two right-handed outfielders on the bench. Ryan Raburn can't platoon with both of them.
Also, Baseball America's much improved Transactions section is reporting Detroit has signed relievers Francis Beltran and Marcelo Perez as well as re-upping starter Jon Connolly.
Beltran is a former highly rated Cubs prospect. His name may soun familiar, because he was part of the package sent from Chicago to Montreal in the Nomar Garciaparra trade. He spent the next couple of seasons in and out of Montreal/Washington's bullpen, and was a reliever for the Orioles' triple-A Norfolk Tides this past season. Old scouting reports I see of Beltran tell me he fits the mold of Cruceta and Bautista with a fastball in the mid-high 90's and command problems. He's had a ton of shoulder problems throughout the years, so I am not certain if the fastball is still that high. Beltran will probably be spending the year in Toledo's bullpen.
Perez has spent his entire career in the Mets system, and was in AA last season. A righthander with low-mid 90's heat, he has always put up good strikeout numbers in the Mets system. Perez will be a candidate for the Toledo and Erie pens in spring training.
Jon Connolly returns to the system, where he will likely be filling into the Erie/Toledo rotation role he filled this past year.
I'd expect a much larger wave of free agents to be announced in the coming weeks. It really won't make too much sense to make predictions of the Toledo rosters until those guys are announced.
edit:
No sooner do I post this than I realize that Chad Durbin was the only non-tender today. Overall, this makes sense. As I mentioned above, Yorman Bazardo seems to be slotted into the sixth starter/swingman role and will probably do a better job at it.
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