Inge back to third

Brandon Inge will be the Tigers' regular third baseman next year. This is a move that is sure to improve the team's infield defense and provide some more stability at a third base position that was bound to have question marks.

Wait, wait, wait, some of you are probably asking? Don't the Tigers have an all star at third base? How will this provide more stability? The answer to that has to do with Carlos Guillen's health. Although he has missed countless games in his career for knee or hamstring injuries, the soreness in his back will prove to be a big deal. Those reading this with sore backs, bend over to field a ground ball and you will see why the Tigers chose this route. (Yes, outfielders have to field grounders as well, but they have to field less and they tend to be weakly hit).

But what about Matt Joyce? I wouldn't cry for him quite yet. This year's left fielder should get plenty of playing time despite this move. First, you have to count on Carlos Guillen to miss some time. He has played 109, 148, 149, 75, and 135 games in the field in his years as a Tiger. Even in his healthy seasons, he seems likely to miss at least 15 games for some nagging injury. Throw in the fact that he will be completing a rehab of some severe back spasms, and he's not likely to be counted on for more than 130 games next year. You have to think that this could spell the end for Gary Sheffield. Would they release him in Spring Training with 499 career homers? Root for him to reach his milestone today so he's not forced into the lineup when he doesn't deserve to be. Regardless, Sheffield is not likely to play 153 games at designated hitter next year. It will be Magglio Ordonez and Guillen who will be taking his place, meaning plenty of playing time for Matt Joyce.

The real intriguing story here is the catcher situation. This decision means one of two things: Dusty Ryan has done enough to earn the starting catching job next year or the Tigers have a trade in place for next year's catcher. Remember last season when it was announced Carlos Guillen's move to first was permanent? It seems likely to me that the Edgar Renteria deal had already been agreed upon at that point, only to be announced right after the World Series. Who could it be? Taylor Teagarden's strong September has probably left the Rangers willing to trade Gerald Laird and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Matt Wieters' emergence may have the Orioles shopping Ramon Hernandez. Those aren't great names, but they are all better than Sardinha.

As for Dusty Ryan, he has shown himself to be ready for at least a part time catching role next year. The thought of he and Inge "platooning" didn't make much sense to me, because both are much better against left-handed pitching. It seems likely that he will be teamed up with one of the many veteran catchers available this offseason. More on them later when I put up final projections for the Elias Rankings.

Scanning the System - Left Field

Since Craig Monroe's implosion last year, several players have gotten time in left field for the Tigers. Ryan Raburn, Marcus Thames, Timo Perez, Cameron Maybin, Mike Hessman, Jacque Jones, Clete Thomas, Brandon Inge, Gary Sheffield, and Matt Joyce are some guys just to name a few. Is Matt Joyce finally the answer? If not, is there help on the way? Let's find out.

Detroit:

Matt Joyce, 23
Actual: .212/.276/.519 (.299/.367/.536 Toledo)
Expected: .231/.293/.538 (.289/.358/.526 Toledo)

Joyce has never been known for his plate discipline, and that has been exposed lately. He can handle the position defensively, but if he can't right this ship soon, one of the several other options will have to be ready.

Marcus Thames, 31
Actual: .246/.310/.415
Expected: .277/.338/446

Ryan Raburn, 27
Actual: .214/.298/.381
Expected: .214/.298/.381

Jacque Jones, 33
Actual: .165/.244/.253
Expected: .165/.244/.253

Gary Sheffield, 39
Actual: .213/.344/.338
Expected: .206/.338/.331

Marcus Thames needs to face mostly lefties. If he gets an everyday job, he will be exposed. I may have been a bit wrong about Raburn, as he looked way overmatched the other night. He still should be next in line. Yes, Jacque Jones was that bad. I've got nothing more to say on Sheffield.

Toledo:
Jackson Melian, 28
Actual: .260/.287/.385
Expected: .218/.247/.343

Timo Perez, 33
Actual: .223/.280/.382
Expected: .280/.331/.439

Melian is just filler, and it turns out he's not doing much of a job filling a spot. Timo Perez hasn't fallen off of a cliff as it may seem. He'll turn it around in time, but still doesn't deserve a big league spot.

Erie:
Wilkin Ramirez, 22
Actual: .316/.365/.556
Expected: .199/.257/.439

A closer look really takes all of the shine off. Strikeouts have always been a problem with Ramirez. This year, he just happens to be getting very lucky. You don't hit .427 on balls in play and sustain it. The "expected" .199 batting average may seem harsh, but given his track record, the line looks fairly reasonable. It could get ugly if this mirage leads to a spot on the major league roster.

Lakeland:
Brandon Timm, 23
Actual: .239/.317/.376
Expected: .211/.293/.348

Pedro Cotto, 25
Actual: .169/.243/.200
Expected: .184/.257/.215

Timm, the 9th round pick in 2004, has moved up a level every year and really hasn't done anything to impress. Pedro Cotto is the Tigers' Toby Flenderson. He's apparently a very nice guy, but he is just awful at everything. Justin Justice was in left for Lakeland, but moved to center field upon his promotion to Erie.

West Michigan:
Marc McBratney, 23
Actual: .186/.260/.279
Expected: .151/.229/.244

Joe Tucker, 24
Actual: .289/.360/.355
Expected: .231/.310/.297

McBratney has been shipped off to extended spring training. For the undrafted free agent, the end of the road is probably near. Tucker is a utility man without much utility. Kody Kaiser is also getting some time out in left field, and Jordan Newton has long been rumored to be headed to the outfield.

VSL Tigers:
Ivan Espinoza, 19
Actual: .250/.298/.269
Expected: .154/.210/.173

The other Espinoza is one of the many Tigers in Venezuela struggling right now. The unrelated Alexis has graduated from the VSL and will likely be playing in the Gulf Coast League starting in June.

Like third base, left field is a position that is very thin throughout the organization. Also like third base, not many players who end up in left field play there in the minor leagues. If you are looking for left field help, next week's rundown of centerfielders may give a better idea of what is in the pipeline. The most disappointing part of this analysis was the revelation that Wilkin Ramirez probably isn't for real. Considering all of the hype around him for so long, it seemed like he has finally turned a corner. I'm not so sure he's anything more than trade bait at this point.

The True Cost of a High Payroll

A common response to a big contract's criticism usually goes something like this: "It's not your money." This is true. The owner is the one giving out the big contracts, and it is his money. Even in these times when baseball is swimming in money and owners can afford pretty much any contract, there is a cost to an expensive team. This is no more evident than it is with the Detroit Tigers right now.

Not only do you have to pay players several million dollars, players with large contracts are also veterans who cannot be sent to the minor leagues. A team is required to be patient with these players while young, cheap players can be sent out when they are struggling. When marginal players get big time deals, you lose roster flexibility.

Take the case of Gary Sheffield. He's now hitting below .200 without much power to speak of at all, as a designated hitter. Even though he's had shoulder and finger problems, because he is an expensive veteran, he apparently has the authority to stay off of the disabled list? Sheffield is, in my opinion, a Hall of Famer. Over the past 20 years, he has been one of the best players in the game and an underrated performer across the board. The simple fact is that he is not getting the job done right now. While this would normally be acceptable; Mike Hessman, Jeff Larish, Michael Hollimon, and others would probably be outperforming him right now. Toledo's roster is simply overflowing with offensive firepower right now.

How about Armando Galarraga? He's been the best pitcher in the Tigers' rotation this season. For all of the critcism that has been unfairly lumped on him for not being able to go deep into games, he still owns 31% of the team's quality starts, and is the only Tigers starter giving up less than an earned run every two innings. Now, he's the one leaving the rotation and presumably the team to make room for the supposedly healthy Dontrelle Willis. Why is Galarraga on his way out? A rotation full of expensive veterans can't be broken up, regardless of whether or not they deserve it.

Just remember the next time you say "It's not my money." It is your team, and your team suffers when potentially poor veterans are signed to large deals.

Postgame Thoughts

• 10 walks and 5 singles will only net you three runs. A lot of anti-sabermetric people will scream "Walks only clog the bases!" The problem today wasn't the walks, it was the pop-outs and the weak contact. What is often misunderstood by the Dusty Bakers of the world is that you get 27 outs, and those walks don't cost you any of those 27 outs.
• On the subject of bashing small ball: how about when Steve Phillips was gushing over Magglio Ordonez being able to hit the ball the other way, and he immediately bounces into a 4-6-3 double play? Ground balls to second base have been glorified to no end when they move a runner up, but they are hardly an example of doing the job. If somebody says a player "did his job" by moving the runner up, you can kindly point to a win expectation chart and show that in most cases you are better off with a runner on second and N outs compared to a runner on third with N+1 outs.
  
• Gary Sheffield was loafing his whole time in left field. If he wants to play out there to get his bat going, he needs to act like he wants to play out there. There was a liner in the left-center gap, where he stopped as soon as he saw Granderson was running after it. There was a catchable blooper into shallow left field, that I thought he may have had a chance at, but he was merely jogging after the ball. Even the catch against the wall involved a lolly-gagging pre-amble. This was an unacceptable defensive effort by Sheffield, and I shudder to see him try to throw a winning run out at the plate. For a while now, all he has needed is about a month's rest to get the shoulder and finger healthy while getting him healthy. Playing him in the outfield, when there are capable offensive and defensive players who can fill his spot, is an unacceptable decision.
• It really was an interesting moment when Hideki Okajima was brought into the game to face Matt Joyce. It was one of the rare moments where a left-handed pitcher is brought into face a left-handed hitter and both have reverse platoon splits. It was either a brilliant move by Terry Francona to induce the right-handed pinch hitter, or a poor decision by both managers that happened to pay off for the Tigers. I'd have left Joyce in. The decision to bring in Thames was an interesting one. It seemed to pay off with a single, but who's to say Joyce wouldn't have done better?
• A comparison I thought of for Matt Joyce: Bobby Higginson without plus plate discipline.
• One quick note on service time. Orel Hershiser was repeatedly saying that Aquilino Lopez is "a 32 year-old with just over 1 year of service time." Had I not remembered him spending an entire season as Toronto's closer five years ago, I wouldn't have looked it up, but Lopez came into the season with 1.152 years of service time according to the Media Guide. That's not 1 year plus another 152/1000 years. That figure means 1 year plus 152 days of service, with 172 days constituting a full season. It's an easy mistake to make at first glance, and I'm not going to chastise Hershiser, who is one of ESPN's best commentators, but wanted to point out a warning when looking at service time numbers. At some point when I get better at computers, I plan to have a roster on the site with every player's up-to-date service time included. The estimated time for arrival on that is roughly 2014.
  
• I was very disappointed to see no Erin Andrews tonight. I thought she had Monday games, and was looking forward to her... insight.
  
• Free Ryan Raburn!
  

One Man's Drastic Changes

Much has been made over the drastic changes to the lineup that will be debuted tonight. I'm not convinced that changes to the lineup are the answer any more than I am that a team can get away with one lineup. I have two sets of three lineups to use. One set of lineups for right-handed opponents, one set for left-handed opponents. One lineup is the "everyday" lineup, and the other two account for days off by Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Those two should each be seeing at least one off day every week.

vs. RHP, Everyday
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF

I like the dynamic of Granderson and Polanco 1-2. Polanco hits a lot of ground balls, which would be double plays with a singles hitter in front of him. For all the talk of Granderson's power being wasted in the leadoff spot, he's only guaranteed to lead off one inning per game. His extra-base hits are an unconventional and effective way of setting the table, and I see no reason to move him. Everything else is pretty straight forward. Brandon Inge isn't in this lineup, but I still see him playing roughly four games per week. He really doesn't hit right-handers well, and he fits best in a part time role. I've already laid out the case that Ryan Raburn has earned an every day job in left field.

vs. RHP, Sheffield Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen DH
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Raburn LF
Inge 3B

vs. RHP, Pudge Off
Granderson CF
Polanco 2B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Guillen 3B
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Raburn LF
Inge C

vs. LHP, Everyday
Renteria SS
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Polanco 2B
Inge CF

It's a bit unconventional to platoon a right-handed bat with another righty. While Ryan Raburn has little if any platoon split, Marcus Thames has always hit lefties well and belongs in this lineup. Until Granderson shows he can hit lefties on a regular basis, Inge gets to be his platoon partner. I've moved Polanco down in the lineup so he is behind another power hitter, and will likely be batting behind Granderson later when he comes in as a defensive replacement.

vs. LHP, Sheffield Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen DH
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Renteria SS
Rodriguez C
Thames LF
Inge 3B
Granderson CF

If Sheffield's off days can be scheduled, I would advise scheduling them against right-handed pitchers. If Granderson is to be completely sheltered against righties, Raburn can start here. I have Granderson in there for the defense. Once again, I bat Polanco behind Granderson, which happens to be in the leadoff spot here.

vs. LHP, Pudge Off
Polanco 2B
Guillen 3B
Cabrera 1B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Renteria SS
Thames LF
Inge C
Granderson CF

Overall, I think these lineups are the best. I haven't run simulations or anything to test them, but they pass basic tests. They each deploy the best available personel, and try to stack the top of the lineup with the team's best hitters, while preserving succesful lineup dynamics such as the Granderson/Polanco combination. Jacque Jones and Ramon Santiago are absent from all of these lineups. I see Santiago getting his typical weekly start in place of Polanco or Santiago. Jones, on the other hand, is just an extra bench bat until he proves he can contribute. You could make the case for releasing him, but with the Tigers on the hook for about another $2.5-million, that's not likely. Also, the player who would replace him would likely rot on the bench. You are better off having Jones rotting the bench than a prospect like Clete Thomas or Jeff Larish.

I know that these aren't going to be the lineups, but I think they are the best the team can throw out there.

Random Thoughts after a Victory

As much as I thought Friday's performance would catapult the team, it turns out that wasn't the case. Monday night's comeback, on the other hand, should provide the spark the offense needs. As if they haven't been huge yet, tonight's game will be a big one for the offense, as it will be important to follow up on today's comeback.

Ryan Raburn was brought in as a defensive replacement last night. Talk about mixed signals. I was under the impression that the reason he had been getting the shaft over the past year was because of his defense. We know that Leyland can't possibly think Jacque Jones is a better hitter, can we?

The Disabled List Informer points out that Gary Sheffield's current shoulder problems may linger, suggesting that signs point to a possible rotator cuff issue. I'm really not well versed in the anatomy of the shoulder, so check that link out for some information.

No Worries

Times have changed in Detroit. For so long, the Tigers were sellers, sending established players off to other organizations in return for players who might help down the line when the team was to be competitive.

That was before 2006.

It's certainly a big adjustment for the Tigers and their faithful. For so long, the hopes rested in the future. The improvement of the big league team means that the days of penny pinching and praying for prospects to pan out are over. As if that wasn't true this time last year when Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Clagget were shipped to the evil empire for Gary Sheffield, it certainly became evident when Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez were sent off to Atlanta for Edgar Renteria in a deal timed in such a way that it seemed to be agreed upon in September.

While this feeling of being among the league's elite should be great, some of the fan reaction to this trade reflects that some of the pre-2006 attachment to our prospects still lingers. This is not unjustified, as this resurgence definitely would not have occurred without the help of the likes of Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and others developed within the Tigers organization.

Here's why you should not worry about this trade.

Jair Jurrjens is a guy I have been high on for a while. Always putting up great numbers against guys older than him, he has always been a dark horse candidate to be a solid pitcher at the big league level. A late-summer surge got him to the Major Leagues, and Jurrjens pitched well in his stay, fooling hitters with his off speed stuff and being aggressive in the strike zone, leading to few walks (11 in 30 2/3 IP), few strikeouts (just 13), but rarely decent contact against him (only 24 hits).

The biggest strike against Jurrjens is the same one against the pitching prospect dealt this time last year: his health. After leaving his start against the Yankees with a painful pop in the back of his shoulder, his future was in doubt. That is why this is trade is a good risk. Jurrjens was already in a position where he was on the brink of never being a productive pitcher again. If you want to play a fun game, look up rotator cuff injuries to pitchers, when they occurred, and their statistics after the injury. The names Wade Miller, Ben McDonald, Robb Nen, and many others whose careers never got back on track will come up. This is not to say that Jurrjens is definitely going to get hurt, but he is an increased risk and it was a good move to cash in on him while he had value.

Gorkys Hernandez is an incredible talent, and has drawn rave reviews from the three people I get most of my prospect prognostication from: Mark Anderson (Tigstown.com), Kevin Goldstein, and Nate Silver (BaseballProspectus.com). All that said, you can still go back six years to the Tigers' last Venezuelan hyped toolsy player was a teenager. While Omar Infante wasn't getting near the reviews, you can see how a toolsy, non-dominant star prospect's star can diminish, especially considering Infante isn't really a flop.

Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens, believe it or not, are examples of why this trade should not be a problem. After years of struggling to produce talent from the Carribean, the Tigers have found Jair Jurrjens in Curacao, and Gorkys Hernandez is the first of what should be a large wave of Venezuelan talent from the team's new facilities there. Increased talent coming from Latin America should do wonders in gathering depth of talent in the system.

Edgar Renteria has had an interesting career. At times, he has been among the best shortstops in the league. His WARP totals range from 7.8 in 2003 to 1.5 in his forgettable 2005 season. The verdict of this trade will depend on if we get the 2003, 2006-2007 Renteria or the 2005 version.

In short, trades like the Renteria and Sheffield deals are merely signs that the Tigers are in a brand new position, and the role of prospects has changed. It's easy to get attached to prospects, especially after years of losing. With drafts like the last three and the team's increased presence internationally, this is something Dave Dombrowski can continue to do without sacrificing the future.