In trying to predict the Tigers' 40 man roster, the desire to protect young players with potential needs to be balanced with the needs of the Major League roster. While it would make sense to fill up all seven available spots with prospects, what happens when the team starts filling its needs and those same prospects are the ones exposed to waivers before their first spring training? For that reason, the first step I am going to take is to subjectively rank the players based on their likelihood of being removed from the 40 man roster.
The first group of players are those signed to big deals. These are the guys who have contracts or the service time to make it unlikely the Tigers will push them from the 40-man roster.
- Miguel Cabrera
- Curtis Granderson
- Magglio Ordonez
- Rick Porcello
- Placido Polanco
- Carlos Guillen
- Jeremy Bonderman
- Brandon inge
- Gary Sheffield
- Nate Robertson
- Dontrelle Willis
The next group of players are those who are not signed or are signed to very cheap deals for just the 2009 season, ranked again in a subjective manner estimating their approximate value to the Tigers on the 40 man roster this offseason. The players at the top of this list are safe from being outrighted, while the ones at the bottom are likely to be on the chopping block.
- Justin Verlander
- Joel Zumaya
- Matt Joyce
- Armando Galarraga
- Jeff Larish
- Dusty Ryan
- Bobby Seay
- Zach Miner
- Clete Thomas
- Michael Hollimon
- Ramon Santiago
- Marcus Thames
- Ryan Raburn
- Freddy Dolsi
- Clay Rapada
- Macay McBride
- Brent Clevlen
- Chris Lambert
- Fernando Rodney
- Aquilino Lopez
- Mike Hessman
- Eddie Bonine
Now, before I get into the players who need to be protected, I want to account for five roster spots that the Tigers could be using on free agents this offseason. One starting pitcher, two relievers, a catcher, and a shortstop are all likely to be acquired in some way or another. Will they all be free agents? Will some come via trades for other players on the 40 man roster, thereby not requiring a roster spot? For the purposes of this, I'll assume all five players will require a roster spot.
In order to figure out whether or not these players will need to be protected, we will need to place them in the list above and see if they still project to be in the top 40 at the end of the offseason. Some of the top players who need to be protected include:
Wilkin Ramirez-
The pros: Impressed in spring training last year, coming off a breakthrough season, scouts love his tools, almost certainly will be drafted if left unprotected.
The cons: Plate discipline is still lacking, could this season have been a fluke?
The verdict: One of the top prospects in the system, I would slot him between Larish and Galarraga on the list. He's a no-brainer to protect.
James Skelton-
The pros: Great OBP skills and contact ability. Has now sustained his performance in Erie and the Hawaii winter league.
The cons: The durability concerns, which are largely bogus, are likely to turn opposing scouts off of him, the lack of power could bring the OBP down later on.
The verdict: I ranked him just below Ryan on my prospect list, but there's a better chance he makes it through the draft. Because the Tigers don't have an incumbant at catcher, it makes sense to protect him. I'll slide him right between Dolsi and Rapada.
Luis Marte-
The pros: Dominated Lakeland, big arm, came on strong in the AFL.
The cons: The elbow questions still linger.
The verdict: As a possible bullpen contributer with injury concerns, it makes sense to rank him right above Macay McBride.
Casper Wells-
The pros: The power has shown at Erie and now in the AFL.
The cons: Scouts aren't convinced, and he could slip through the Rule 5 draft. Outfield depth is a strength of the Tigers, so he may not be missed if taken in the draft.
The verdict: We'll slot him right above Aquilino Lopez.
Zach Simons-
The pros: Big fastball, wowed scouts in Lakeland.
The cons: May not be MLB ready, struggled in the AFL.
The verdict: Worth protecting, but could be squeezed. I'll put him right below Wells, above Lopez.
Guillermo Moscoso-
The pros: Blew through Erie and Lakeland this year.
The cons: A bit old for those levels, doesn't have overpowering stuff, struggling in Venezuelan winter leagues.
The verdict: A notch below Simons, but still more appealing than Lopez.
Jay Sborz-
The pros: Big arm, succeeded in Lakeland.
The cons: Injury history, not MLB ready.
The verdict: Just between Hessman and Lopez.
Alfredo Figaro-
The pros: Hard thrower, good movement on his fastball, dominated in West Michigan.
The cons: Only success was in the biggest pitchers' park in organized baseball against players two years younger than him. Struggled in Lakeland, not MLB ready.
The verdict: Below Bonine.
Everybody else, including Williams Rhymes, Max Leon, and Josh Rainwater slots behind Alfredo Figaro.
So, wrapping this up, we have:
- Miguel Cabrera
- Curtis Granderson
- Magglio Ordonez
- Rick Porcello
- Placido Polanco
- Carlos Guillen
- Jeremy Bonderman
- Brandon Inge
- FA SS
- FA C
- FA SP
- FA RP
- FA/Rule 5 RP
- Gary Sheffield
- Nate Robertson
- Dontrelle Willis
- Justin Verlander
- Joel Zumaya
- Matt Joyce
- Armando Galarraga
- Wilkin Ramirez
- Jeff Larish
- Dusty Ryan
- Bobby Seay
- Zach Miner
- Clete Thomas
- Michael Hollimon
- Ramon Santiago
- Marcus Thames
- Ryan Raburn
- Freddy Dolsi
- James Skelton
- Clay Rapada
- Luis Marte
- Macay McBride
- Brent Clevlen
- Chris Lambert
- Fernando Rodney
- Casper Wells
- Zach Simons
- Guillermo Moscoso
- Aquilino Lopez
- Jay Sborz
- Mike Hessman
- Eddie Bonine
- Alfredo Figaro
- William Rhymes
Purchased the contracts of P's Luis Marte and Zach Simons, C James Skelton, and OF's Wilkin Ramirez and Casper Wells.
1 comment:
Here's the MLB story - Marte and Skelton were left off in favor of Moscoso and Figaro. hmmm.
http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081120&content_id=3686053&vkey=news_det&fext=.jsp&c_id=det
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