More Waivers

Spring Training is starting up, which inevitably means we are going to hear about how Player X will probably make the team over Player Y because they are out of options. As I already showed, most players clear waivers anyways. What type of players don't? Is a player being claimed a big loss? Here's a list of every player I could find who was placed on outright waivers from late February through early April last year.

Yoel Hernandez	Philadelphia	2/22/2007	Cleared
Lincoln Holdzkom	Texas	3/10/2007	Cleared
Jason Stokes	Florida	3/16/2007	Cleared
Jack Cust	San Diego	3/17/2007	Cleared
Ben Hendrickson	Milwaukee	3/18/2007	Cleared
Michael Restovich	Washington	3/19/2007	Cleared
Bernie Castro	Washington	3/19/2007	Cleared
Matt Roney	Toronto	3/22/2007	Cleared
JD Closser	Colorado	3/22/2007	Cleared
Sean Tracey	Chicago White Sox	3/23/2007	Baltimore
Chris Narveson	St. Louis	3/24/2007	Cleared
Bobby Crosby	Cincinnati	3/24/2007	Cleared
Jonathan Johnson	Atlanta	3/24/2007	Cleared
Tim Redding	Washington	3/25/2007	Cleared
Billy Traber	Washington	3/25/2007	Cleared
Jermaine Van Buren	Washington	3/25/2007	Cleared
Rick Bauer	Texas	3/26/2007	Cleared
Marino Salas	Milwaukee	3/26/2007	Cleared
Charlton Jimerson	Houston	3/26/2007	Cleared
Ezequiel Astacio	Houston	3/26/2007	Texas
Jeff Salazar	Colorado	3/26/2007	Arizona
Adam Donachie	Kansas City	3/26/2007	Cleared
Mike Rivera	Milwaukee	3/27/2007	Cleared
Grant Balfour	Milwaukee	3/27/2007	Cleared
Luis Terrero	Chicago White Sox	3/27/2007	Cleared
Scott Dohmann	Tampa Bay	3/28/2007	Cleared
Kenny Ray	Kansas City	3/28/2007	Cleared
David Krynzel	Arizona	3/29/2007	Cleared
Brian Tallet	Toronto	3/29/2007	Cleared
JD Durbin	Minnesota	3/29/2007	Arizona
Alexis Gomez	Colorado	3/30/2007	Cleared
Andy Phillips	New York Yankees	3/30/2007	Cleared
Jon Adkins	New York Mets	3/30/2007	Cleared
Merkin Valdez	San Francisco	3/30/2007	Cleared
Dustin McGowen	Toronto	3/30/2007	Cleared
Ezequiel Astacio	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Marlon Byrd	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Guillermo Quiroz	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Francisco Cruceta	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Adam Fox	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Andrew Brown	San Diego	3/31/2007	Cleared
Justin Germano	San Diego	3/31/2007	Cleared
Michael Garciaparra	Seattle	4/1/2007	Philadelphia
Antonio Perez	Oakland	4/1/2007	Cleared
Todd Williams	Baltimore	4/1/2007	Cleared
JD Durbin	Arizona	4/5/2007	Boston
Simon Ferrer	Colorado	4/6/2007	Cleared

That's 47 players placed on outright waivers last spring training, with 41 clearing. That's 87.2% of players who could not make the roster making it through waivers without a problem. On top of that, what has happened to those players who were claimed?

Sean Tracey is best known as the pitcher who Ozzie Guillen called out for not throwing at a hitter. He wasn't even out of options last spring, so the White Sox were simply trying to clear room on the 40 man roster for somebody. He was then claimed by Baltimore, who eventually removed him after getting injured and struggling in the minors.

Texas claimed Ezequiel Astacio off waivers from Houston. Out of options, the Rangers also had to send him through waivers, where he cleared and put up a 5.5 ERA in AAA Oklahoma over the course of the season.

Jeff Salazar still had an option remaining, so he was claimed when he didn't have to be sent through waivers. Still, as a fourth outfielder at best, the Rockies didn't miss much from losing him.

J.D. Durbin is the most interesting of all of these guys. Ranked as the Twins' #10 prospect last year, injuries forced Durbin into running out of options in the spring. Not making the Twins roster, he was claimed off waivers by Arizona (8th priority). Arizona then tried to slip him through waivers, where he was claimed by Boston (20th priority). Boston, also without room on the roster for Durbin, put him on waivers, where he was claimed by Philadelphia (18th priority). Philadelphia, in what must have been a tumultuous few weeks for Durbin, pushed him through waivers, this time clearing. You could make the case that Durbin was lost as a result of being out of options, but the the Twins were truly serious about wanting him, they could have claimed him when Philadelphia put him out there. Durbin eventually put up an ERA north of 6 with meddling ratios in 65 innings of work as a swing man. This is not a move the Twins will end up regretting.

Michael Garciaparra was claimed by Philadelphia. In addition to being the latest to come down with Billy Ripken Syndrome, Garciaparra still had three option years remaining, and put up pathetic numbers across three levels last year before being moved off the roster.

In conclusion, two players who were out of options were claimed off waivers last Spring. Both cleared waivers within a month after being claimed. The amount of options a player has left should not be considered in whether or not he makes a roster.

2008 Media Guide Released

The Tigers have released their 2008 Media Guide to the masses. It is several hundred pages of some of the most random and useful information out there. Most information inside of it can be found elsewhere, but there are two sections that can come in handy for the true baseball dorks out there:

The Minor League section:
http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/pressbox/downloads/y2008/det/player_dev.pdf

Every player in the organization is listed there with their career statistics. While most players are known and their stats are available online, some transactions go unreported, such as the late January signing of minor league utility man Derek Wathan. Also, this is the closest thing we have to an up-to-date list of recent Domincan and Venezuelan signings. Many of these have been reported, but I wanted to give a list of all the players who have been signed that did not play last year:

Gino	Aguirre	RP	R	R	6.20	155	9/12/1990	Nueva Esparta, VZ
Carlos	Alvarez	RP	R	R	6.10	175	1/15/1991	Caracas, VZ
Wilfredo	Hoyer	C	R	R	6.01	180	5/14/1991	Miranda, VZ
Javier	Azcona	SS	R	R	6.10	180	8/28/1991	Colui, DR
Alexander	Nunez	SS	R	R	5.11	172	5/4/1990	La Vega, DR
Josue	Carreno	RP	R	R	6.01	170	6/26/1991	Edo Nueva Esparta, VZ
Ricardo	Olivo	C	R	R	6.00	179	11/5/1990	Santiago, DR
Raynolds	Guzman	C	R	R	6.00	185	9/16/1990	Santo Domingo, DR
Bruce	Rondon	RP	R	R	6.02	190	12/9/1990	Valencia, VZ
Domingo	Gonzalez	SS	R	R	6.01	175	3/10/1991	Bani, DR
Luis	Sanz	C	R	R	5.10	165	2/23/1991	Gualtire, VZ
Yinio	Calderon	SP	R	R	6.04	170	11/16/1990	La Vega, DR
Emmanuel	Del Orbe	SP	R	R	6.03	188	12/20/1990	Santo Domingo, DR
Francisco	Melo	SP	R	R	6.03	180	2/27/1991	Bani, DR
Avisail	Garcia	CF	R	R	6.03	190	6/12/1991	Anzoategui, VZ
Oscar	Gomez	SS	R	R	5.11	155	3/25/1991	Miranda, VZ
Francisco	Martinez	3B	R	R	6.01	180	9/1/1990	Miranda, VZ
Hernan	Perez	SS	R	R	6.00	160	3/26/1991	Arugua, VZ

These signings happen throughout the year, and more guys will be brought in between the printing of this guide and the start of the summer leagues.

One other name you may not recognize is Darwin DeLeon, previously known as Edward Reynoso. Will he come state-side this year after dominating the Dominican Summer League last year? I know the answer, but can't tell. Check out Tigstown.com to get the list of those coming to the states this year.

The list of major league players in the media guide is pretty useful:

http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/pressbox/downloads/y2008/det/tigers.pdf

Most of the information is available online through MLB.com. There is one bit of information, though, that isn't. That's the service time. It may be a bit confusing when seeing it the first time around. It may seem like a pretty big coincidence that no players have fractional service time that exceeds X.2. This is because service time is not represented in a decimal form. For example, Tim Byrdak's Major League Service is listed as 2.161. This is not 2 years plus another 161/1000 of a year. It's actually 2 years and 161 days in a year, where 172 days counts as a full season. There is no rounding in service time. If you are at 5.171, you have to wait a whole season to become free agent eligible.

Pitchers and catchers officially report tomorrow, but if it makes anybody feel better, most players have already reported to Spring Training. The greatest time of year is almost here. I can't wait.

Transactions Roundup

It's been a long week, and I wanted to get caught up on the transactions I missed.


Tony Giarratano Released
A setback in his rehab was reported last month, and the feable Tony Giarratano era came to a screaching halt with his release last week. It became clear that he was never going to be able to stay healthy enough to play shortstop for the Tigers. The ultimate result of this transaction is a free roster spot, and the team's medical resources are able to be focused on players who have played since 2006.


Curtis Granderson Signs Extension
5 years/30.25 Million with an option year is an absolute steal. I had Granderson making 26 million through arbitration leading up to free agency. Yes, this deal only buys out one or two free agency years, but somebody of Granderson's on and off-field value is worth much more than this.

Acquired Armando Galarraga from Texas for Mike Hernandez
Undoubtedly, this will be bemoaned by minor league hounds, who grow attached and overrate anybody in the Tigers minor league system (see Bierd, Randor). This is still a solid trade. Galarraga had been designated for assigment by Texas last week, similar to Yorman Bazardo last year. Already 26, Galarraga missed much of 2002 and 2003 recovering from Tommy John Surgery and had further elbow problems in 2006, delaying his arrival. With one option year left, Galarraga will probably be in Toledo's rotation this year. I think this is a fine pickup, given his career strikeout rates.

Mike Hernandez is a fine story, picked out of a tryout camp a year after finishing college, he got off to a great start in both 2006 and 2007, but cooled off significantly. We are still talking about a 24-year old restricted to first-base with a career .320 minor league OBP. This is not a big loss.

Options and Waivers Part 3

After looking at the potential roster crunch the Tigers will have this year, it is time to start calculating the risk of losing certain players on waivers. The first variable I am going to look at is the month.

The term "out of options" did seem to rise to the forefront last season. This is no coincidence. In the new collective bargaining agreement put into effect after the 2006 season, players were granted an extra year before becoming eligible for the Rule 5 draft. As a result, more borderline major leaguers have found themselves on 40 man rosters over the past few years rather than fourth year professionals on their first option year. This, in turn, has created more situations where players out of options need to clear waivers.

I bring this up because the data I have collected is for the 2007 calender year only. While the sample is smaller, the face of the waiver wire has changed in such a way that the 2006 data may distort any trends. Below is a chart of all waiver data by month in 2007. All totaled, 79.4% of players placed on waivers last year cleared.

From a year's data, it's difficult to find trends. The spike in percentage clearing from 70% in May, July, and August to 90% in June seems like a fluke. The amount of players going on waivers in October is a result of the deadline for activating players from the 60-day DL. Teams have to cut their roster down before the off-season, and it's no surprise that many (83.5%) of these players clear waivers.

The month in which the highest amount of players cleared waivers was March, the time when teams are cutting down to their 25 man roster. This bodes well for teams that are afraid of cutting a player in Spring Training because they are afraid of the player clearing waivers. 90.2% of players placed on waivers last March cleared and stayed with their teams. This data would suggest that if a team is worried about losing a player to waivers, the team should put them through waivers in March. In addition to the likelihood of losing the player being at its lowest, there is additional benefit. In general, players who are kept because they are out of options are kept over players with options who are better than them.

By choosing an inferior player in Spring Training because they are out of options, a team decreases the quality of players and increases the risk that the player will be lost to waivers when they ultimately give up on the player.

After the next round of research, I will take a look at other effects that go into waiver risk.

Happy 90th, Ernie

One of my favorite Youtube videos:

A different view of pitching statistics

Below are the 2007 major league offensive numbers put up against Tigers pitchers on the 40 man roster. Without cheating, can you match up the pitcher with the stats?

Major League (BAA/OBPA/SLGA)

Denny Bautista
Yorman Bazardo
Jeremy Bonderman
Tim Byrdak
Jason Grilli
Todd Jones
Macay McBride
Zach Miner
Nate Robertson
Fernando Rodney
Kenny Rogers
Bobby Seay
Jordan Tata
Virgil Vasquez
Justin Verlander
Dontrelle Willis
Joel Zumaya

A. .189/.291/.295
B. .228/.299/.323
C. .218/.281/.356
D. .233/.309/.358
E. .238/.320/.378
F. .230/.330/.370
G. .267/.331/.371
H. .263/.339/.377
I. .273/.342/.385
J. .264/.331/.439
K. .278/.326/.453
L. .258/.387/.367
M. .283/.343/.445
N. .294/.369/.477
O. .302/.406/.566
P. .429/.489/.500
Q. .360/.407/.747

Jose Canseco has no credibility

Just bear that in mind when you read the news Thursday. The man is trying to drag everybody with success through the mud with him. Is anybody remotely surprised that he is now targeting the two best players from 2007 in his upcoming "book?" The guy is a loser, a schmuck, and has absolutely no credibility. Get your information from better sources and don't buy this jerk's books.

Options and Waivers, Part 2

Before getting into waivers, I want to get into one more aspect of options that Billfer brought up, and that is the fourth option. From the Biz of Baseball:

A player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of professional experience. A full season is defined as being on an active pro roster for at least 90 days in a season. (If a player is put on the disabled list after earning 60 or more days of service in a single season, his time on the DL is counted.) The 90-day requirement means short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.

Rick Porcello, being added to the 40 man roster straight out of High School, is a candidate for this fourth option. As it stands, Porcello has four option years remaining as per the most recent collective bargaining agreement, meaning he doesn't have to reach the big leagues until opening day 2012.

When trying to option a player on waivers, you have to consider three variables:

• How much value will the player being kept provide over the player being put on waivers?
• Can we afford to lose this player on waivers?
• What is the likelihood that this player will be claimed on waivers?

I wanted to spend the next two posts taking a look at the third question on this list, and maybe another looking at finding an objective way to look at the first two. I also want to point out that we are talking about irrevocable waivers, which are different from the waivers that players are put on in August after the trading deadline.

What better way to find the risk of a player being claimed off waivers than looking at their individual waiver history? Several player who are out of options have been for many years and could be exposed to the waiver wires time and time again.

Denny Bautista:
Believe it or not, Denny Bautista has never been on waivers. The Tigers are his fifth organization, and he has been on a 40 man roster since the time the Orioles purchased his contract after the 2003 season.

Yorman Bazardo: Yorman Bazardo has also never been on waivers. He was designated for assignment last offseason, but the Tigers acquired him before he was placed on waivers.

Tim Byrdak: Byrdak epitomizes the term journeyman. His first stint in the big leagues was from 1998 through 2000 with the Royals. During that time, his three option years were used up. Rather than trying to option him after the 2000 season, Kansas City opted to non-tender Byrdak, making him a free agent. Byrdak never sniffed a 40-man roster again until getting his contract purchased by Baltimore in July of 2005. He stayed on Baltimore's roster until August 2006 when he was outrighted (clearing waivers) to Ottawa.

Tim Byrdak is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Francisco Cruceta: Another journeyman, this is Francisco Cruceta's fifth organization. Unlike Bautista, though, Cruceta has only been traded once. He first used up his options from 2003 through 2005 with the Indians having been slow to develop into the type of pitcher they wanted. They tried to sneak Cruceta off the 40-man roster in August, but Seattle was there to claim him. It appears as if the Mariners were able to slip him through waivers between August and January, when he received a spring invitation. Brought back onto the 40-man in September, 2006, Cruceta was put through waivers again after the season and claimed by Texas. He would not make the Rangers out of spring training, and cleared waivers before being sent to Oklahoma City for the duration of the season.

Francisco Cruceta is 2/4 in clearing waivers.

Jason Grilli: Another hard-throwing bullpen candidate who has bounced from team to team, Grilli is in his fourth organization. A high first round pick by the Giants, traded to the Marlins as part of the Livan Hernandez deal, there was a time when Grilli was a top notch pitching prospect until injuries derailed his status. After 2002, he successfully cleared waivers while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Drafted by the White Sox in the next season's Rule 5 Draft, Grilli again was put on waivers during the Spring of 2004. Aside from not even being claimed, the Marlins rejected the White Sox' mandatory offer of the Rule 5 draftee. The final time Jason Grilli was put through waivers was after the 2004 season when Chicago designated him for assignment and ultimately released him.

Jason Grilli is 3/3 in clearing waivers.

Bobby Seay: Seay ran out of options after the 2003 season, and failed to make the 2004 (Devil) Rays. He then succesfully cleared waivers during spring training. Seay was next placed on waivers as a Colorado Rockie during the 2005 season, again clearing before becoming a free agent after the season. Finally, Seay cleared waivers as a member of the 2006 Tigers.

Bobby Seay is 3/3 in clearing waivers.

Mike Hessman: Hessman has never been on irrevocable waivers. As a player who had made his debut four years before being optioned last year, he did have to clear revocable waivers, but I'm not going to count that in this discussion. It appears as if revocable waivers are very easy to clear.

Brandon Inge: A Tiger his whole life, and on the 40 man roster uninterrupted since the 2000-2001 off-season, Brandon Inge has no waiver experience.

Ramon Santiago: Santiago has only had to clear waivers once, after the 2004 season when the Mariners were making room on the 40-man roster. Twice, though, did he have to clear revocable waivers: in 2006 and 2007 with the Tigers.

Ramon Santiago is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Freddy Guzman: Speedy outfielder Freddy Guzman is loved by all that seem to believe that Dave Roberts' 2004 ALCS steal embodies all that is right with small ball and justifies giving players who can do nothing but run a roster spot. For Guzman, this would be his first time on waivers, as he is just running out of options.

Marcus Thames: Once among the many highly touted Yankees prospects before being traded to Texas. The Rangers were able to succesfully get Marcus Thames through waivers after the 2003 season. He promptly declared free agency and signed on with the Tigers.

Marcus Thames is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Timo Perez: I'm not quite sure where Timo Perez stands. He cleared waivers earlier in the offseason, and it is still the same waiver period. Does that mean he has to clear again? Is he even on the 40 man roster? I had thought so yesterday until his name showed up among the spring invites. For Perez, this was his second time on waivers having also been outrighted in 2006 with the Cardinals.

Timo Perez is 2/2 in clearing waivers, but may not have to clear this Spring.

There you have it. Francisco Cruceta is the only player on the roster with a history of being claimed off waivers. Over the course of the next few posts, I'll have to take a look at several potential variables that go into a player's waiver risk. Some that are going to be tested include:

• Prospect Status: Could a player being mentioned among Baseball America's top prospects play a role in their likelihood of being claimed? On top of that, a 2007 top prospect will certainly be claimed before a 2000 top prospect.
  
• Time of waiver: Roster crunches occur at different times of the year. Certainly, around November and December when players are being protected from the Rule 5 draft, it's probably much easier to clear waivers than mid-season where teams have more room on their reserve roster.
• Recent performance: One would think a player coming off of a fine season would have a harder time making it through waivers.
• Injury status

If you can think of any others, please let me know. Again, if you have any questions about anything, bring them up so they can be clarified.

Options and Waivers, Part 1

After reading Billfer's take on the bench, it became very clear that options and waivers will be causing issues for the Tigers this spring.

Here are some great references out there on roster rules:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/08/death_taxes_and_1.php
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=category&sectionid=19&id=44&Itemid=75
http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1860265
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/1999/0908/46397.html
http://wwww.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?author=85

There are more included in the bizofbaseball.com link.

I wanted to take some highlights and how this will effect the Tigers' decision making this March.

When a player is added to the 40-man roster, his club has three “options,” or three separate seasons during which the club may to move him to and from the minor leagues without exposing him to other clubs. A player on the 40-man roster playing in the minors is on optional assignment, and within an option season, there is no limit on the number of times a club may demote and recall a player. However, a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a Major League player on the disabled list during the 10-day window.

After three options are exhausted, the player is out of options. Beginning with the next season, he must clear waivers before he may be sent to the minors again. See Waivers. Additionally, a player with 5 years of Major League service may not be sent to the minor leagues on an optional assignment without his consent.

- Biz of Baseball

They go on to show how to calculate option years.

# If a player is not sent to the minors during a year, an option is not used.
# If a player is on the 40-man roster in spring training but optioned to the minors before the season begins, an option is used.
# If a player’s optional assignment(s) to the minors total less than 20 days in one season, an option is not used.

- Biz of Baseball

Here you can see when options are used by players. I wanted to point out that only one option can be used per year. In the instance of somebody like Craig Monroe in 2002 or Aquilino Lopez in 2007, only one option is used even though they were each shipped between Detroit and Toledo numerous times. The ultimate problem with running out of options is that a player cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. There is another case when this is true, from Keith Law

There is a rule rarely invoked in baseball that creates a situation where a player who has options remaining still has to clear waivers to be sent on an optional assignment. If the assignment is to begin at least three full calendar years from the date of the player's first appearance on a 25-man roster, then the player can not be sent on an optional assignment without first clearing major league waivers. These waivers are revocable, and players usually clear those waivers without incident.

So, what does this all mean? Ignoring the planned starting lineup, Vance Wilson, the Starting Rotation, Todd Jones, and Fernando Rodney, let's take a look at the option status of those fighting to make the team.

1. Any player who has been sent down on an optional assignment in three seasons is out of options, and will have to clear irrevocable waivers to be sent to the minors.

Three options used:
Denny Bautista (2004, 2006, 2007)
Yorman Bazardo (2005, 2006, 2007)
Tim Byrdak (1998, 1999, 2000)
Francisco Cruceta (2003, 2004, 2005)
Jason Grilli (2000, 2001, 2002)
Bobby Seay (2001, 2002, 2003)
Mike Hessman (2003, 2004, 2007)
Brandon Inge (2001, 2002, 2003)
Ramon Santiago (2003, 2006, 2007)
Freddy Guzman (2004, 2006, 2007)
Marcus Thames (2002, 2003, 2005)
Timo Perez (2001, 2002, 2007)

Two options used:
Macay McBride (2005, 2007)
Jordan Tata (2006, 2007)
Tony Giarratano (2005, 2006)
Brent Clevlen (2006, 2007)
Ryan Raburn (2004, 2005)

One option used:
Zach Miner (2007)
Clay Rapada (2007)
Rick Porcello (2007)
Virgil Vasquez (2007)

No options used:
Joel Zumaya

Out of the above players, barring injury, 15 will have to be sent down to Toledo, leaving a minimum of five players out of options who will have to be exposed to waivers.

I list Joel Zumaya because it would be interesting to see if he is sent on an optional assignment to Toledo to prevent service time from accruing during the injury. He's got three option years left, and could be arbitration eligible after this upcoming season. It's worth considering.

2. Players who first appeared on a 25 man rosters more than three calender years before the start of an optional assignment must clear revocable waivers.

Of the nine players who still have options remaining, only Ryan Raburn falls under this qualification, having made his Major League debut in 2004. Revocable waivers allow a team to pull a player back if they don't want him claimed. The waiver period in question runs from November 11 through April 30. This means the Tigers could have already slipped Raburn through waivers, allowing him to be optioned this Spring.

I'll talk more about the specifics of waivers and the likelihood of players being claimed in Part 2. In the meantime, if you have any questions, please leave them as I would love to answer them and feel they would be informative for anybody out there.

Morosi 1, Henning 0

Two Top prospect lists were announced today. Baseball America released its list, compiled by John Paul Morosi of the Free Press. Not to be outdone, Lynn Henning posted his top 20.

Baseball America:
1. Rick Porcello, rhp
2. Cale Iorg, ss
3. Scott Sizemore, 2b
4. Michael Hollimon, 2b/ss
5. Yorman Bazardo, rhp
6. Jeff Larish, 1b
7. Matt Joyce, of
8. Danny Worth, ss
9. Francisco Cruceta, rhp
10. Brandon Hamilton, rhp

Like most people out there, I was a bit surprised to see Cale Iorg that high. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus had him ranked #4, but those rankings came out while Cameron Maybin (#1) was Detroit property and Casey Crosby (#3) had his previous elbow ligament. There seems to be somewhat of a consensus between their sources that Cale Iorg is very very impressive. It's hard to argue with that notion, as there is next to no data out there on him. He played just a couple of weeks in Lakeland before missing the Hawaii league with a minor injury.

For a guy with next to no power, Scott Sizemore seems kind of high to me. Jeff Larish may seem low to some people, but as I pointed out Wednesday, it's justified. Matt Joyce performed well enough in Erie to raise some eyebrows, and all reports suggest he has a great arm. Danny Worth has been overrated by many fans after a supposed hot start this year, and Francisco Cruceta cracking the #9 spot shows just how depleted the farm system is.

Overall, I have no major gripes with this list. The most egregious omission would appear to be James Skelton, but I have heard hesitation that he deserves a catcher of the future tag.

Henning:
1. Rick Porcello, RHP, 6-5, 200, age 19
2. Cale Iorg, SS, 6-2, 175, age 22
3. Casey Crosby, LHP, 6-4, 195, age 19
4. Jeff Larish, 1B, 6-2, 200, age 25
5. Matt Joyce, RF, 6-2, 185, age 23
6. Danny Worth, SS, 6-1, 180, age 22
7. Scott Sizemore, 2B, 6 feet, 185, age 23
8. Michael Hollimon, SS, 6-1, 185, age 25
9. Jeff Gerbe, RHP, 6-3, 190, age 23
10. Clete Thomas, CF, 5-11, 195, age 24
11. Tony Giarratano, SS, 6-0, 180, age 25
12. Brent Dlugach, SS, 6-5, 200, age 24
13. Brent Clevlen, RF, 6-2, 190, age 24
14. Wilken Ramirez, OF, 6-2, 190, age 22
15. Joe Bowen, C, 6-1, 190, age 20
16. Devin Thomas, C, 5-10, 195, age 22
17. Audy Ciriaco, SS, 6-3, 195, age 20
18. Preston Larrison, RHP, 6-4, 235, age 27
19. Freddy Dolsi, RHP, 6 foot, 160 pounds, age 25
20. Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, 6-1, 160, age 24

The top eight, in no particular order, seem reasonable. Jeff Gerbe seems pretty high at #9, as I have a hard time seeing a guy bound for relief as the third-best pitcher in the organization. Clete Thomas had an okay year last year, but he is a guy with contact issues and limited power. Tony Giarratano and Brent Clevlen were both defense-first shortstops who have yet to return from labrum surgery. As such, they really don't belong in the discussion. Brent Clevlen's stock has taken a huge hit after terrible years in 2004, 2006, and 2007. It's spelled Wilkin. There is no way Joe Bowen belongs in this discussion at all, especially with the absence of Skelton. Preston Larrison is no longer a prospect, while Freddy Dolsi and Guillermo Moscoso are way too old for their levels.

I was trying to hold out until the motownsports.com fan rankings come out, but I will post my Top Ten today:

1. Rick Porcello
2. Yorman Bazardo
3. Mike Hollimon
4. Jeff Larish
5. James Skelton
6. Charlie Furbush
7. Matt Joyce
8. Danny Worth
9. Scott Sizemore
10. Virgil Vasquez

Porcello is obvious. Despite the full rotation, I do believe that Yorman Bazardo has the stuff and ability to crack the rotation in the event of the inevitable injury. It will be very important that the Tigers don't make a mistake and let him go this spring. Hollimon comes in over Larish because there are more possibilities for a middle infielder than a firstbaseman. I admit that Skelton and Furbush are probably too high, but there isn't much out there. Both had pretty good seasons this year, and I believe Skelton will forever be battling biases against his size as a catcher. Joyce's plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired, and as a corner outfield he needs to be doing better than just above average offensively. I'm still not sure Worth and Sizemore will hit enough, and Virgil Vasquez leaves a lot of balls up in the zone. I have Cale Iorg in at 15, although a top notch season this year will shoot him up where those in the organization apparently think he belongs. I'm confident in Casey Crosby's recovery, but do want to see some results or a positive prognosis before placing him high on the list. I just think the rust may be too hard to kick off.

Two more avoid arbitration
Finally, the Tigers avoided arbitration with Miguel Cabrera ($11.3 million) and Bobby Seay ($780,000). Both were right around what I expected. Seay was really an unsung hero last year, as he was arguably the team's best reliever, as he was finally utilized in an advantageous manner with lefties hitting just .209/.270/.275 against him.

Marcus Thames Avoids Arbitration

As reported on the Tigers official site and the MLB.com transactions page, the Tigers have avoided arbitration on Marcus Thames, signing him to a one-year deal. I cannot find the terms anywhere, but if I was to guess, I would say this is on the order of $1.5 million.

I would imagine Seay will sign shortly. The delay on Miguel Cabrera probably has to do with long term negotiations. The Tigers may bite the bullet and sign him for one year if things can't be worked out over the long term.

For an update, there still haven't been any terms disclosed on the contract. Believe it or not, a player of Thames' caliber could probably justify $5-8 million on the open market, so the deal will probably come at a discount.

In somewhat related news that I found out by doing a Google News search of "Thames," the River Thames apparently had flooding issues yesterday. It doesn't appear as if anybody is hurt, but I wish the best to our friends the Brits.

Danny Knobler is now reporting the deal is worth $1.275 million, a good deal for a player who could play a key role in the event of injury.

Keeping Jeff Larish in Perspective

By most Tigers' fans measures, Jeff Larish has become the Tigers' second best prospect. The first baseman put up solid numbers in Erie this past year in just his second professional season, but the bar is raised pretty high for someone who has nowhere else to move on the defensive spectrum. I don't think Tigers fans realize how uninspiring Jeff Larish is in the big picture.

Taking a look at the top 20 (by VORP) 1B in 2007, here are their offensive splits from their age 24 seasons:

Larish (AA) .267/.390/.515

Albert Pujols (MLB) .331/.415/.657
Prince Fielder n/a
Carlos Pena (MLB) .232/.316/.448
Ryan Howard (AA/AAA) .291/.369/.637
Mark Teixeira (MLB) .281/.370/.560
Todd Helton (MLB) .315/.380/.530
Derrek Lee (MLB) .281/.368/.507
Lance Berkman (MLB) .297/.388/.561 (AAA) .330/.476/.563
Adrian Gonzalez (MLB) .304/.362/.500
Dmitri Young (MLB) .310/.364/.481
Kevin Youkillis (AA/AAA) .285/.427/.409
James Loney n/a
Matt Stairs (AAA) .267/.347/.426
Justin Morneau (MLB) .237/.304/.437
Ryan Garko (AAA) .303/.384/.498
Casey Kotchman (MLB) .296/.372/.467
Paul Konerko (MLB) .298/.363/.481
Scott Hatteberg (AA/AAA) .242/.328/.386
Conor Jackson (MLB) .291/.368/.441
Adam LaRoche (MLB) .278/.333/.488

So at age 24, 15 of the top 20 first-basemen in baseball last year had reached the major leagues. In the case of Loney and Fielder, they are younger than Larish and have already established themselves as top flight major league hitters. You will also note that of those 15, 12 put up pretty good numbers in the majors with Morneau having an injury-plagued uncharacteristic down year. Of the five players who hadn't reached the majors, all had made it to AAA by this point in this career. Adjusting for era (Stairs and Hatteberg were 24 in the early 90's), only Scott Hatteberg was less impressive in his time in the minors with Stairs and Youkilis playing at roughly the same level as Larish.

Based on that, I'd say the odds are stacked against him at this point. "But he was just drafted in 2005! It's not his fault the Tigers have moved him slowly!" you could point out. Ignoring the fact that several players drafted in 2005 have already made big impacts at the big league level and the fact that Larish hasn't performed at a level to force the organization's hand, we can take a look at the AA performance of the above 20 1B's.

Pujols (skipped AA)
Fielder (20) .272/.356/.473
Pena (22) .299/.411/.533
Howard (24) .297/.374/.647
Teixeira (22) .316/.403/.591
Helton (22) .332/.424/.486
Lee (22) .280/.363/.570
Berkman (22) .306/.422/.555
Gonzalez (21) .283/.326/.393, .307/.371/.409
Young (21/22) .272/.325/.406, .292/.345/.455
Youkilis (23/24) .344/.450/.500, .327/.472/.465
Loney (20/21) .238/.311/.327, .284/.357/.419
Stairs - AA number not available... yes, he's that old
Morneau (21) .298/.353/.474
Garko (23) .331/.382/.523
Kotchman (21) .368/.419/.544
Konerko (20) .300/.393/.543
Hatteberg (22-24) 3 unspecacular seasons
Jackson (22) .301/.368/.456
LaRoche (23) .283/.379/.511

Larish stacks up a bit better here, until you throw in the fact that he was, in most cases, two years older than most of these guys when he was in AA.

Overall, the point of this is that he is not an elite 1B prospect by any stretch of the imagination. Even without Carlos Guillen signed through 2011, it would be tough to count on Larish to be a serviceable 1B for more than a year or two.

Robertson Locked Up

The Free Press is reporting Nate Robertson has signed a 3 year, 21.25 million dollar contract. This contract buys out two years of arbitration eligibility and one year of free agency. In my mind, this is a deserved contract. Even though Robertson has been around average in his time with the Tigers, left-handed pitchers are historically more expensive than their right-handed counterparts. This is the going rate for a left-handed starting pitcher, especially one who is strong in the community with a good head on his shoulders.

Using some of the procedures laid out in Vince Gennaro's Diamond Dollars (expect a review on that in the coming days and analysis of tools learned in the book over the coming year), I have estimated Nate Robertson to be worth roughly $29 million over the next three years if he was a free agent. By those calculations, this will be a good deal, even though he projects to be overpaid in 2010. I'll have more on those calculations in the coming days.

Marcus Thames, Bobby Seay, and Miguel Cabrera all the remaining arbitration eligible players.

Gold Mine!

I had stumbled upon the Tigers' media guide as a great reference last year. Yesterday, I did the same with all 30 media guides. Really, any information you may want on players (through a year ago) can be found in these guides.

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/media_guides/index.jsp

Based on the dates of some signings, I would imagine these are put up at the beginning of Spring Training. I would expect the 2008 versions to be released in roughly a month.

More Minor League Signings

Making the first news in a while, the Tigers announced the signings of 11 players yesterday, four of which have already been known. While such news would enable us to get away from the mainstream media revealing their collective ignorance of the performance enhancing drug or Hall of Fame debates, it's not likely that these players will contribute much to the Detroit Tigers as a whole.

We'll start with the guys who we've already known about I've already covered pitchers Francis Beltran, Marcelo Perez, and Jon Connolly. Dane Sardinha was announced several weeks ago, and he projects to be the team's third catcher as things stand right now. Sardinha was drafted by the Reds in 2000 as a player with great defensive polish. They banked on his bat developing, but it never happened. Throughout his professional career, Sardinha's offensive results have been putrid at best. Luckily, he will only be counted on if Vance Wilson's recovery from Tommy John Surgery requires a short term fix in April.

Pitchers Anastacio Martinez, Jeremy Johnson, and Ian Ostlund were all in the Tigers' system last year, before becoming six-year free agents. Martinez was picked up from Washington's system and has bounced around. He was a reliever and spot starter for Toledo towards the end of the season. I would expect him to do much of the same this year. Ostlund was originally drafted by the Tigers in 2001, and has served as a lefty reliever, bouncing between Erie and Toledo last season. Jeremy Johnson was hot stuff a few years ago before undergoing major shoulder surgery. He became a valuable part of Toledo's bullpen this past season. Scouts still aren't impressed with his repertoire and doubt he'll be a force with the big club.

Utility men Henry Mateo and Caonabo Cosme will offer much needed flexibility to Toledo and Erie, which are restricted to 23 and 24-man roster limits. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to offer anything to the Tigers. Jackson Melian will probably return in his Kirk Airoso role as Erie's DH and provide a stable bat to Erie's lineup. The history of Jackson Melian's prospect-hood is pretty interesting and might be worth an entry during these January doldrums.

Finally, Max St. Pierre returns after a one-year retreat from the organization that included a conversion to pitcher. I haven't heard for sure if the Tigers plan to use him at catcher, but I have to imagine St. Pierre will be donning the tools of ignorance given the team's lack of depth at the position.

Overall, these signings provide little in the way of potential for the Tigers' roster. The next news will likely deal with the arbitration cases of unsigned Tigers. Bobby Seay, Nate Robertson, and Miguel Cabrera all still need contracts. Players and teams will file for arbitration from January 5-15, exchanging figures on the 18^th before hearings occur the early part of February. No player has gone to arbitration in Dave Dombrowski's time here, and I don't expect that to change.

Clemens Worked Hard. So What?

It's not impossible. You do it with hard work. Ask any of my teammates. Ask anybody that's come here and done the work with me.

This is a great excuse for Roger Clemens, but unfortunately, I don't see how he can use hard work as proof that he never used steroids. See, anybody who knows anything about what steroids actually do to the body probably had extreme doubts when anybody uses the hard work excuse. Below is an excerpt from Will Carroll's book The Juice, undoubtedly the best of the books released in the past few years on steroids.

Testosterone, which is the primary active ingredient – in synthetic form – in any anabolic steroid, acts directly in muscle tissue. It increases the speed at which muscle cells are produced and repaired. This same action that stimulates protein synthesis also serves to inhibit protein degradation. This inhibition is known as the anti-catabolic effect (catabolism is a destructive metabolic process by which organisms convert substances into excreted compounds) and plays a major role in allowing the anabolic steroid user to train more often with heavy resistance. The user must also maintain a high-protein and fairly high-calorie diet during the training regimen.

A necessary component in the use of steroids, in order to realize gains in strength, muscle growth, and lean body mass, is heavy resistance training. Because of the anti-catabolic effect, the steroid user does not have to wait 48 hours for the muscles to recover from a previous bout of heavy resistance training. Instead of having to work the upper body one day and the lower body the next, the steroid user can work the full body every day with heavy resistance, without having to worry about the effects of muscle breakdown.

Mr. Clemens, if you were a hard worker and were able to work out more frequently, it is very possible it is steroids that enabled you to do that. That is what they are designed to do!!!

Do Number 1’s face Number 1’s? – Part 2

Last time I started to take a look at the assumption by many in the sports media that pitchers often go up against those in the same rotation spot as then, thereby predicting improvement for pitchers who move from being a team's #4 to #1. I've been working on a lengthy study to test this theory, especially after hearing many analysts describe the help that Dontrelle Willis will get from not having to go up against opposing aces anymore.

Last time, I showed that the opening day order of a starting rotation will rarely be in order of that season's performance level. This is due to several reasons, including injuries, veteran preference, matchup strategies in deploying the rotation, and surprises or disappointments that a player experiences. Of the 20 teams observed, though, nine opening day starters ended up being the team's best and four more ended up being the team's second-best starting pitcher. Chances are, if you are facing a team's opening day starter, you are facing one of their better pitchers.

Next, I wanted to take a look at the assumption that teams' rotations are actually aligned over the course of a season, allowing #1 starting pitchers to regularly face #1 starters and #4 starters to regularly face #4's. I did this by looking at the Tigers' 2007 opening day rotation and the starting pitchers that they faced in each of their starts. A Number 6 starter is defined as one who didn't start

Jeremy Bonderman (Opening Day Rotation: #1)

Faced #1: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #2: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #3: 2 times (8.3%)

Faced #4: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #5: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #6: 6 times (25.0%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 3.2625

Nate Robertson (Opening Day Rotation: #2)

Faced #1: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #2: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #3: 5 times (16.1%)

Faced #4: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #5: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #6: 12 times (38.7%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 2.3129

Justin Verlander (Opening Day Rotation: #3)

Faced #1: 8 times (25.0%)

Faced #2: 2 times (6.3%)

Faced #3: 6 times (18.8%)

Faced #4: 7 times (21.9%)

Faced #5 5 times (15.6%)

Faced #6: 4 times (12.5%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.0469

Mike Maroth (Opening Day Rotation: #4)

Faced #1: 4 times (30.8%)

Faced #2: 1 time (7.7%)

Faced #3: 1 time (30.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #5: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #6: 3 times (23.1%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.9615

Chad Durbin (Opening Day Rotation: #5)

Faced #1: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #2: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #3: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #5: 4 times (21.1%)

Faced #6: 3 times (15.8%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 2.4824

As this shows, it appears to be random as to which pitcher a starting pitcher will oppose. While Jeremy Bonderman faced #1 pitchers in 20.8% of his starts, Justin Verlander and Mike Maroth both faced the opposing team's ace more often in their starts. Nate Robertson, the #2 starter, faced easily the weakest starting pitchers of anybody over the course of the year.

Several aspects lead to the randomness of pitching matchups.

-Injuries: Justin Verlander is the only Tigers pitcher to spend the entire season in the rotation. Injuries in a rotation can cause a pitcher to be moved up a day, back a day, or inserted into the rotation at the most convenient spot. With how often pitchers miss starts, it's a wonder that anybody could begin to think #1's face #1's.

-Rotation Style: The role of the fifth starter varies by manager. Many skippers will go 1-5, while several will use their fifth starter only during streaks of five or more games without an off-day. Chad Durbin's first start was pushed back to the sixth game of the season, so the #5 starter was facing the Blue Jays' #2. Different managers deploy their starters in different ways, and it is impossible to say that pitchers will be aligned based on their opening day spot in the rotation.

-Weather: All it takes is one rain-out to move a rotation up or back a day. In the case of the Mariners and Indians last April, their rotation was reset after a snowy weekend off. Postponements lead to another rotation juggler: double-headers. Spot starters come up from the minors, possibly facing that day's starter. Overall, the weather can play a large role in rotations becoming out of sync.

-The All-Star Break: The most boring three days in the baseball season also help to throw this myth into disarray. Rotations are frequently reset after the all-star break. Some team's aces go the first game after the break, while some aces are given a few days to recover from their All Star appearance. I assumed that there may be a chance that an All Star pitcher would face more aces after the break, but Justin Verlander faced just three of his eight after the All Star Break.

-The Schedule: Some teams play six games in a week; some play seven. Once again, teams' rotations get out of sync.

If teams played one game every day in domes, and pitchers never ever got hurt, you could make the case that pitchers at the bottom of a rotation have an easier time. The problem is they don't, and as such, anybody who uses a pitcher's spot in the rotation as an excuse probably doesn't know what they are talking about.

Arbitration Day and More Signings

Midnight tonight brings about the deadline for tendering arbitration eligible players a contract. Seven Tigers, listed below are up for arbitration this year:

-Tim Byrdak (Signed $715,000 contract, avoiding arbitration)
-Miguel Cabrera
-Chad Durbin (non-tendered)
-Nate Robertson
-Bobby Seay
-Marcus Thames
-Dontrelle Willis

I will update this as the day goes along.

If I had to guess, I would say all will be tendered a contract. Chad Durbin is probably the most doubtful of the bunch, as his swingman role can be easily replaced by Yorman Bazardo. There seems to be a sentiment that Marcus Thames is expendable now, but so long as Jacque Jones and Curtis Granderson are roming the outfield, it will be nice to have two right-handed outfielders on the bench. Ryan Raburn can't platoon with both of them.

Also, Baseball America's much improved Transactions section is reporting Detroit has signed relievers Francis Beltran and Marcelo Perez as well as re-upping starter Jon Connolly.

Beltran is a former highly rated Cubs prospect. His name may soun familiar, because he was part of the package sent from Chicago to Montreal in the Nomar Garciaparra trade. He spent the next couple of seasons in and out of Montreal/Washington's bullpen, and was a reliever for the Orioles' triple-A Norfolk Tides this past season. Old scouting reports I see of Beltran tell me he fits the mold of Cruceta and Bautista with a fastball in the mid-high 90's and command problems. He's had a ton of shoulder problems throughout the years, so I am not certain if the fastball is still that high. Beltran will probably be spending the year in Toledo's bullpen.

Perez has spent his entire career in the Mets system, and was in AA last season. A righthander with low-mid 90's heat, he has always put up good strikeout numbers in the Mets system. Perez will be a candidate for the Toledo and Erie pens in spring training.

Jon Connolly returns to the system, where he will likely be filling into the Erie/Toledo rotation role he filled this past year.

I'd expect a much larger wave of free agents to be announced in the coming weeks. It really won't make too much sense to make predictions of the Toledo rosters until those guys are announced.


edit:
No sooner do I post this than I realize that Chad Durbin was the only non-tender today. Overall, this makes sense. As I mentioned above, Yorman Bazardo seems to be slotted into the sixth starter/swingman role and will probably do a better job at it.

Do Number 1's face Number 1's?

As one of the biggest moves in the Tigers' 107 year history, the Miguel Cabrera trade has been covered to death by Lee and Bill and everybody else already, but I wanted to tackle one piece of analysis I've heard a few times regarding Dontrelle Willis. There seems to be a sentiment that moving out of the #1 spot in the rotation will help him because he won't be facing the opposing #1 starters. This got me thinking, "Do #1's really face #1's, #2's face #2's, and so on." Such an assertion makes three assumptions:

-The best pitcher is the team's #1, the second best pitcher is the team's #2, etc.
-The pitchers continue to go 1-2-3-4-5 in the rotation and always face the opposing team's pitcher of the same rotation rank.
-This is a bit of stretch, but the other two assumptions only take care of win-loss record. Maybe facing tougher pitching makes a pitcher pitch worse.

In order to take a look at these assumptions, I've utilized Support Neutral Lineup-Adjusted Value Above Replacement Level (It's that simple!). SNLVAR looks at the likelihood of winning a game and the pitchers' contribution to that, adjusts for opponents, and compares to a waiver-wire pitcher.

I've looked at all the Tigers opponents this year to see their opening day rotations and their actual rotations. For the opening day rotations, I've defined a #1 pitcher is defined as the opening day starter, #2 as the next starter. In some cases, because of rain or days off, a team didn't go 1-2-3-4-5, so the first five unique starters are defined in that case. The actual rotation is defined as the top 5 pitchers by SNLVAR on the team.

Baltimore
Opening Day
1. Erik Bedard
2. Daniel Cabrera
3. Jaret Wright
4. Adam Loewen
5. Steve Trachsel

Actual
1. Erik Bedard 6
2. Jeremy Guthrie 4.8
3. Daniel Cabrera 3
4. Steve Trachsel 2.9 (combined with Cubs stats)
5. Brian Burres

Wright and Loewen were lost for the year early on. Guthrie came on and performed admirably. What did we learn from the Orioles?

-Injuries happen, and can alter rotations from the get-go.
-Trades also happen. Like in the case of Trachsel, a regular member of the rotation is replaced by somebody from the farm

Boston
1. Curt Schilling
2. Josh Beckett
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Julian Tavarez

Actual
1. Josh Beckett 6.2
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka 5.1
3. Curt Schilling 4.3
4. Tim Wakefield 3.9
5. Julian Tavarez 1.1

Well, I see how they were able to stay successful this year. What did we learn from the Red Sox?

-Sometimes a pitcher other than the opening day starter emerges as the ace.

New York (A)
Opening Day
1. Carl Pavano
2. Andy Pettite
3. Mike Mussina
4. Kei Igawa
5. Darrel Rasner

Actual
1. Chien-ming Wang 6
2. Andy Pettite 5.3
3. Mike Mussina 2.6
4. Roger Clemens 2.6
5. Phil Hughes 1.5

When did they sign Clemens? I totally missed that one. I must not have turned on ESPN at any point in June or July. What did we learn from the Yankees?

-Once in a while, a team's best pitcher will start on the DL. This means that he can be placed anywhere into the rotation.
-In addition, rotations are set a couple weeks in advance of the season. When Wang was injured, rather than moving everybody around Torre decided to put Carl Pavano in his place.
-Phil Hughes teaches us something about service time. A player is a free agent after six years of service time, which is counted in days. Service time is taken out of 172 days, while the season is 182 days long. Often a player will be held out for those 11 days to buy an extra year of time before free agency. This can also apply to whether or not the best five pitchers are in the rotation.
-Failed experiments like Kei Igawa can throw a rotation into flux.

Tampa Bay
Opening Day
1. Scott Kazmir
2. Jae Seo
3. James Shields
4. Casey Fossum
5. Edwin Jackson

Actual
1. James Shields 5.8
2. Scott Kazmir 5.5
3. Edwin Jackson 1.5
4. Andrew Sonnanstine 1.2
5. Jason Hammel 0.9

Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine, Price, and Garza will be a good rotation by the end of 2008. This team is going places. It's really too bad the Rays aren't in the NL Central. What did we learn from Tampa Bay?

-We have another young pitcher emerging from the #3 spot.
-Jae Seo and Casey Fossum were terrible, again throwing the rotation into flux.

Toronto
Opening Day
1. Roy Hallday
2. AJ Burnett
3. Gustavo Chacin
4. Tomo Okha
5. Josh Towers

Actual
1. Roy Halladay 6.7
2. Dustin McGowan 4.3
3. AJ Burnett 4.3
4. Shaun Marcum 4.3
5. Jesse Litsch 3

Did the Rios for Lincecum rumors confuse anybody else? If Bristol, CT, was closer to Toronto, the Worldwide Leader would be telling us how great this rotation was last year. What did we learn from the Jays?

-Sometimes the ace is the ace. I have a hunch we'll see Roy Halladay as a supporting case for rotation slot mattering when I look at Bonderman's opponents.
-Again veteran garbage blocks better pitchers early in the season.

Chicago (A)
1. Jose Contreras
2. Jon Garland
3. Mark Buehrle
4. Javier Vasquez
5. John Danks

Actual
1. Mark Buehrle 5.6
2. Javier Vasquez 5.2
3. Jon Garland 4.3
4. Jose Contreras 1.0
5. Gavin Floyd 0.9

With a rotation like that, it's no wonder the Tigers went out and got Miguel Cabrera to keep up. What did we learn from Ozzie's smart-ballers?

-The top 4 pitchers were essentially regarded as equal before the season. Sometimes there isn't a discernible difference between the pitchers in the rotation, so you really aren't at an advantage facing the #4 starter over the #1.

Cleveland
Opening Day
1. CC Sabathia
2. Jake Westbrook
3. Jeremy Sowers
4. Paul Byrd
5. Fausto Carmona

Actual
1. Fausto Carmona 6.8
2. CC Sabathia 6.5
3. Jake Westbrook 3.3
4. Paul Byrd 2.5
5. Aaron Laffey 0.8

I really really really wish Fausto Carmona had stayed in Buffalo all year. What did we learn from the Indians?

-The best pitcher on the staff may not even be in the rotation from the get-go because of options and lack of trust in young pitchers.
-I'll get into the rain/snow outs in the next segments, but it's needless to say that rotations get thrown out of order early on.
-The Tigers may have won the division if Lee and Sowers had been serviceable and healthy.

Detroit
Opening Day
1. Jeremy Bonderman
2. Nate Robertson
3. Justin Verlander
4. Mike Maroth
5. Chad Durbin

Actual
1. Justin Verlander 5.6
2. Nate Robertson 2.8
3. Jeremy Bonderman 2.4
4. Chad Durbin 1.7
5. Andrew Miller 0.8

I'll do the Tigers too. You could make a case the rotation was an opponent this year. What did we learn from the Tigers?

-Jim Leyland likes to order his rotation in such a way to keep hard and soft-tossers alternated. This means the ace goes in the #3 hole between the soft-tossing lefties. Again, the pitchers aren't always placed in the rotation in order by their ability.

Kansas City
Opening Day
1. Gil Meche
2. Odalis Perez
3. Zach Greinke
4. Jorge de la Rosa
5. Brandon Duckworth

Actual
1. Gil Meche 5.3
2. Brian Bannister 4.6
3. Zach Greinke 2.2
4. Jorge de la Rosa 1.6
5. Odalis Perez 1.1

What did we learn from the Royals?

-Teams fall in love with spring training performance. Bannister was left off the opening day roster because of a bad spring, but emerged as the second-best starter. Spring training performance can skew an opening day rotation.

Minnesota
Opening Day
1. Johan Santana
2. Boof Bonser
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Carlos Silva
5. Sidney Ponson

Actual
1. Johan Santana 6.3
2. Carlos Silva 5
3. Scott Baker 3.1
4. Boof Bonser 2.4
5. Matt Garza 2

And you thought you could go five seconds without seeing Johan Santana's name. Shame on you! What did we learn from Terry Ryan's fetish for wash ups?

-Veteran floatsum continues to clog rotations.
-The ace is sometimes an ace.
-Johan Santana might be traded to the Red Sox, no maybe the Yankees, no maybe the Red Sox, no maybe the Yankees. Oh wait, who are the Twins?

Los Angeles (A)
Opening Day
1. John Lackey
2. Kelvim Escobar
3. Ervin Santana
4. Joe Saunders
5. Dustin Moseley

Actual
1. John Lackey 6.9
2. Kelvim Escobar 6.3
3. Jered Weaver 4.1
4. Joe Saunders 1.7
5. Ervin Santana 1.3

Does anybody else remember when Ervin Santana was named Johan before age-gate? What did we learn from the American League West's powerhouse?

-The ace is sometimes the ace.
-A rotation can have two ace caliber pitchers.
-Again, one of the team's better pitchers started on the disabled list, meaning you don't really know which rotation spot they will go into.

Oakland
Opening Day
1. Dan Haren
2. Joe Blanton
3. Rich Harden
4. Chad Gaudin
5. Joe Kennedy

Actual
1. Dan Haren 6.3
2. Joe Blanton 5.9
3. Chad Gaudin 3.8
4. Joe Kennedy 2.3
5. Lenny DiNardo 1.5

What did we learn from Oakland?

-Sometimes the ace is the ace.
-This stuff really isn't that important in the grand scheme of things. Some people just die to young.

Seattle
Opening Day
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jarrod Washburn
3. Miguel Batista
4. Horacio Ramirez
5. Jeff Weaver

Actual
1. Felix Hernandez 4.3
2. Miguel Batista 4.2
3. Jarrod Washburn 3.5
4. Jeff Weaver 1.3
5. Cha Seung Baek 0.8

It's really good to know Billy Bavasi got fair value for Rafael Soriano? Aside from knowing to pay attention to Horacio Ramirez's peripheral statistics, what did we learn from the Mariners?

-Sometimes the ace is the ace.

Texas
Opening Day
1. Kevin Milwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Brandon McCarthy
4. Robinson Tejeda
5. Jamie Wright

Actual
1. Brandon McCarthy 1.9
2. Kevin Milwood 1.6
3. Kameron Loe 0.9
4. Vicente Padilla 0.6
5. Jamie Wright 0.6

What did we learn from the Rangers?

-Autopilot could have cracked the Rangers rotation.
-Sometimes ace is a relative term. Even if you have to face the opposing team's best, you can get the occasional break.

Atlanta
Opening Day
1. John Smoltz
2. Tim Hudson
3. Chuck James
4. Mark Redman
5. Kyle Davies

Actual
1. Tim Hudson 7.9
2. John Smoltz 7.0
3. Chuck James 4.3
4. Buddy Carlyle 1.1
5. Kyle Davies 1.0

Mark Redman is really the John Larroquette of baseball. Yeah, he had some success a while ago. You thought you had seen the last of him before you suddenly see him in a rotation somewhere with a bit of hype. Before you check back, the sitcom was a failure and was cancelled. What did we learn from the Braves?

-Even when the rotation is about right, the top two may be out of order.

On another note, the fact that Hudson and Smoltz both would have led the American league is interesting. There was a lot of offensive talent in the NL East last year. Since SNLVAR is adjusted by opposing talent, I wonder if that inflated the numbers. On top of that, I have to wonder if it's the NL East's pitching being bad or the hitting being good that is causing this. This may have an effect on the numbers we should expect from Cabrera and Renteria this year. I'll check in on that before the season.

New York Mets
Opening Day
1. Tom Glavine
2. Orlando Hernandez
3. John Maine
4. Oliver Perez
5. Mike Pelfrey

Actual
1. Tom Glavine 5.6
2. John Maine 5.4
3. Orlando Hernandez 4.6
4. Oliver Perez 4.0
5. Jorge Sosa 1.9

What did we learn from the Mets?

-The starting third baseman can be blamed for the pitching woes in the MVP voting.
-There is virtually no difference between the 1-4 starters, suggesting again that it may not make a difference if you face the #1 or #4 starter on a regular basis.

Philadelphia
Opening Day
1. Brett Myers
2. Cole Hamels
3. Adam Eaton
4. Jamie Moyer
5. Zach Segovia

Actual
1. Cole Hamels 5.2
2. Jamie Moyer 3.2
3. Kyle Kendrick 3.2
4. Kyle Lohse 1.3
5. Jon Lieber 1.2

Brett Myers was moved to the closer role early on. Segovia was the #5 starter the first week, and was never saw the big leagues again.

-Injuries can decimate a rotation.
-A young ace may not get the chance to be the #1 starter.

I'm going to skip Washington, as I've already used my bad pitching jokes on Texas.

Milwaukee
Opening Day
1. Ben Sheets
2. Chris Capuano
3. Jeff Suppan
4. Dave Bush
5. Claudio Vargas

Actual
1. Ben Sheets 4.1
2. Yovani Gallardo 3.6
3. Jeff Suppan 3
4. Dave Bush 2.2
5. Chris Capuano 2

What did we learn from Milwaukee?
-Bad defense can hurt a solid rotation. They need Brandon Inge more than they care to admit.
-Service time jumbling can lead to a rookie ace joining the team mid-season.

St. Louis
Opening Day
1. Chris Carpenter
2. Kip Wells
3. Braden Looper
4. Adam Wainright
5. Anthony Reyes

Actual
1. Adam Wainright 5.9
2. Braden Looper 3.8
3. Brad Thompson 1.9
4. Joel Pineiro 1.7
5. Todd Wellemeyer 0.4

What did we learn from the Cardinals?

-Bitterness takes more than 14 months to cure.
-An undisputed ace hurting his elbow can kill a rotation.
-So can Kip Wells.
-Don't drink and drive.
-Wearing glasses can fool the MSM into thinking you are a genius.

The overall totals
#1 starters started the season as:

#1 starters: 9
#2 starters: 3
#3 starters: 4
#4 starters: 1
#5 starters: 1
Out of the rotation: 1

To summarize what we learned from all of the teams,

-Managers have their best pitcher pitch on the correct day to start the season more than any other rotation rank.
-Pitchers aren't always placed in the rotation based on their ranking within the rotation, but instead for other strategic mixing and matching.
-Getting an extra year of control of a player can keep a young ace out of the rotation early on.
-Young pictures are underrated by managers coming out of spring training, while the flop of veteran floatsum can send a rotation into flux.
-Regular pitchers like Jered Weaver and Chien-ming Wang can start the season out of the rotation on the disabled list, out of their natural spot in the rotation.
-Injuries (Carpenter) can kill a rotation.
-So can Kip Wells.
-Phil Mickelson should have tried out for the Rangers instead.

Overall, I will conclude that the #1 pitcher is the correct pitcher more often than other times, but pitchers are not usually ranked in order of their actual effectiveness. Next, I will check to see if #1's actually face #1's.

Tigers Acquire Miguel Cabrera: I'm happy

I know it's not fantasy baseball, but when I combined several projection systems for my fantasy league last year considering value over the next 5 years, Miguel Cabrera came out #1. He was above Pujols, Rodriguez, and the rest of the league. I had a feeling the Tigers may try to target him, especially considering the complete lack of 3B in the system. Everybody else has covered this to the max, and I have to admire the front office for having the guts to make this deal. This gives the Tigers a Hall of Fame caliber player for as long as they are willing to pay him.

In other news related to this site, things will still be slow for a while. I recently had computer problems where I had lost about five of those 40-man reports I had done. Looking back on them, I found them bland and below the standard of which I want to run this thing. I'm in the process of gathering tons of data and tons of new stats and performing my own analysis that I will be putting up periodically until the season starts.

The 40 Man Roster in 40 days: Tony Giarratano

Tony Giarratano was drafted in the third round out of Tulane University in 2003, a draft whose first five rounds yielded Kyle Sleeth, Jay Sborz, Giarratano, Josh Rainwater, and Danny Zell. Selected with a reputation of being a defensive wizard with limited offensive skills, Giarratano surprised all with his .328/.369/.476 performance in Oneonta. The offensive outburst moved him to the top of most prospect charts after his debut season.

In 2004, Giarratano picked up right where he left off, hitting .285/.383/.352 in pitching friendly. After being promoted to Lakeland, he preceded to hit the cover off the ball at .376/.421/.505, enough to keep him near the top of the prospect lists at #6 in Baseball America's team ranking. At this point, some worried about his dependency on batting average, suggesting that the season was a fluke caused by luck with balls in play. Others worried about the upcoming jump to AA, a pitfall for many prospect. The aspect that has hindered Giarratano the most began to creep up in 2004 when he had a season-ending partial dislocation in his non-throwing shoulder. Regardless, "Tony G." got the "Shortstop of the Future" tag placed upon him after an impressive first two years in the pros.

The shortstop of the future cries got even longer in 2005 when Giarratano was brought up to fill in for an injured Carlos Guillen during the summer. Still, he did not hit well in his time with the Tigers (.143/.234/.214) nor with the Seawolves (.266/.334/.373). The defensive skills remained, though. Despite the 21 errors combined between the two levels, Baseball America tagged Tony G. as the top defensive infielder in the system.

Another slow start and injuries slowed down Giarratano in his attempt to repeat Erie in 2006. In just 269 at bats, Tony G. hit a disappointing (.283/.340/.390) in his time at Erie before coming down with a minor wrist injury in June and finally suffering a season-ending ACL tear in his right knee. At last recovered from the knee injury, Tony went under the knife again in Spring training, having surgery on a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.

Injuries:
This has already been covered, but unlike Bazardo (who did have a short stint on San Antonio's 2006 Disabled list... whoops), Giarratano's career has been slowed to a screeching halt. It's hard to say which injury is the biggest worry. The shoulder dislocation is usually the result of a blunt force to the shoulder, so one would be led to believe it's not a worry. The problem comes with the fact that after surgery to replace such an injury, the joint is less stable, and more likely to be injured again. I don't remember exactly how he hurt his knee, but most ACL injuries are the result of landing awkwardly, over-extending the leg while running, or blunt trauma to the knee. Like a shoulder location, one who has already torn one ACL is more likely to tear the other. We still have not seen Tony G. play since the injury, but he should have had plenty of time to rehabilitate the leg. The labrum injury worries me most. While not the kiss of death for shortstops as it once was for pitchers, a defense-first prospect cannot afford to have difficulties throwing the ball when he has problems hitting in the first place. The injuries have certainly put a damper on the career of a guy who got off to such a great start, and worst of all, these injuries tend to be chronic.

Service time:
2005: 26 days
2006: 34 days
2007: 172 days

Time on the Big League disabled list counts. Giarratano was brought up at the end of 2006 to allow the Tigers more options on the playoff roster, and was placed on the DL in 2007 to save an option for a recovery year in 2008.

Options:
Used options in 2005 and 2006.
One remaining

Again, being on the Major League DL in this year will enable Tony G. to head to Erie or Toledo to get back on track.

Present Status:
If all had gone well, the Edgar Renteria trade would have been unnecessary, as Giarratano could have been a decent shortstop for a couple of years. Clearly all did not go well. With the onset of injuries, struggles in Erie, and the emergence of Danny Worth, Tony G. may have to settle into some kind of a utility role. Out of options after 2008, you have to think the Tigers may try to find a way to sneak him through waivers this offseason while his value is down to avoid a possibly tough decision in 2009. At this point, it's hard to envision Giarratano as a starter on the Detroit Tigers. The 2003 draft has proven to be a disaster for the organization. Only Jordan Tata, Virgil Vasquez, and Tony Giarratano currently remain on the 40 man roster. First round pick Kyle Sleeth has not recovered from his Tommy John surgery 30 months ago. Second round pick Jay Sborz can't throw a strike or graduate past short season ball. Fourth round pick Josh Rainwater is an A-ball swing man. While Giarratano proved to be a find early on, constant injuries have derailed a once promising career.

The 40 Man Roster in 40 Days: Yorman Bazardo

Today, I will start a segment that will take a brief look at each player on the 40 man roster. I will start each with a look at their career to date, injury history, proceed to where they currently stand in the organization, derive their service time and option information, and finally look to their future as Detroit Tigers. Today we will start with pitcher Yorman Bazardo.

History:
Signed as an undrafted free agent out of Venezuela on July 19, 2000, by Dave Dombrowski's Florida Marlins, Bazardo did not debut until 2001 in the Venezuelan Summer League. As a kid just turning 17, he pitched very well in his 70 1/3 innings of work posting an ERA of 2.43, striking out 62, walking just 18, and only allowing 59 hits. It was former Marlins scout, now Tigers scout Miguel Garcia who discovered Bazardo.

2002 found Bazardo moved to the bullpen for the Short Season A Affiliate of the Marlins in Jamestown. Again, he showed great command in his 36.1 innings, walking only 6 and posting a 2.72 ERA. He moved onto A-ball at the age of 19 in Greensboro, again only walking 26 in 130 innings, but only striking out 70. He posted a solid 3.12 ERA and allowed his first professional home runs during this season. After the season, Baseball America ranked him #5 in the Marlins system.

Bazardo continued to climb the ladder to the Florida State League in 2004, and again did not disappoint. In 154 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.27 ERA, walking only 30. He impressed so much, he was named the third best prospect in the Marlins organization after the season. Being Rule 5 eligible after the season, he was added to the Marlins' 40 man roster.

2005 found more success for this young pitcher. Turning 21 midway through the season, he put up a 3.99 ERA at AA Carolina, earning a one-day promotion to the Marlins before being shipped to Seattle in a deal for reliever Ron Villone. Bazardo spent a year and a half in the hitter friendly Texas league with less impressive results before the Mariners designated him for assignment in 2007 to make room for Jeff Weaver. This enabled the Tigers to pick him up for struggling outfielder Jeff Frazier.

2007 got off to an inauspicious start for Yorman, as he was rocked in his first start. Ultimately, he settled down and pitched well both in Toledo's rotation and in his brief stay with the big club. Continuing his long-standing trend of low walk totals, low strikeouts, and a low ERA, Bazardo has positioned himself nicely for a shot in 2008.

Injuries:
It has been seven years since he signed his first professional contract, and Bazardo has never been on the Disabled list. He has as clean of a bill of health as any pitcher in the system.

Service Time:
2005: 1 day
2007: 44 days
Total: 0 years, 45 days (0.045)

Options:
Used options in 2005, 2006, and 2007.
None remaining

Age vs. career clock:
The acquisition of Yorman Bazardo from Seattle, and his ability to progress from waiver bate into the 2008 plans makes the trade for flailing former third round pick Jeff Frazier an exceptional one as is. Bazardo's status as a player in his early 20's running out of options made the deal doable, and the ability of Dave Dombrowski to exploit that status as a cheap pickup shows that he is able to recognize the gap between age and career clock for many Latin players.

It is widely assumed that players on the whole improve mightily in their early 20's and peak around 27, level off until around 30, and fall off afterwards. A conceptual graph showing typical career progress is shown below. Obviously most players don't follow this trend, and not all players are equal.



The graph is obviously not taken from any particular set of data, and is primarily for illustration purposes only. The next chart shows career progress for players based not on their age, but instead on their professional timeline. You can see where players who sign at 16 will have to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft and will run out of options earlier. Rather than protect them, some teams will be impatient and make them available on the cheap. When teams are willing to give young players away before they reach their potential because of the disconnect between age and career clock, it becomes something that can be exploited. The Tigers did that in acquiring Bazardo last winter. This is something I may look further at later if I see any trends in how these players are valued.

Present Status:
Bazardo has the combination of playing well in 2007, proving himself in his cup of coffee, and being out of options that pretty much assures him of a spot on the 2008 Detroit Tigers. What role he has will depend upon which role he is needed to fill. With a pitching staff having more question marks than Matthew Lesko's wardrobe, Bazardo should settle in and pitch well regardless of if it is as a starter, swingman, or back of the bullpen pitcher. At just 23 with durability, a solid track record, and a quality arsenal, Yorman Bazardo is one of the most underrated players in the Tigers' organization.

No Worries

Times have changed in Detroit. For so long, the Tigers were sellers, sending established players off to other organizations in return for players who might help down the line when the team was to be competitive.

That was before 2006.

It's certainly a big adjustment for the Tigers and their faithful. For so long, the hopes rested in the future. The improvement of the big league team means that the days of penny pinching and praying for prospects to pan out are over. As if that wasn't true this time last year when Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Clagget were shipped to the evil empire for Gary Sheffield, it certainly became evident when Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez were sent off to Atlanta for Edgar Renteria in a deal timed in such a way that it seemed to be agreed upon in September.

While this feeling of being among the league's elite should be great, some of the fan reaction to this trade reflects that some of the pre-2006 attachment to our prospects still lingers. This is not unjustified, as this resurgence definitely would not have occurred without the help of the likes of Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and others developed within the Tigers organization.

Here's why you should not worry about this trade.

Jair Jurrjens is a guy I have been high on for a while. Always putting up great numbers against guys older than him, he has always been a dark horse candidate to be a solid pitcher at the big league level. A late-summer surge got him to the Major Leagues, and Jurrjens pitched well in his stay, fooling hitters with his off speed stuff and being aggressive in the strike zone, leading to few walks (11 in 30 2/3 IP), few strikeouts (just 13), but rarely decent contact against him (only 24 hits).

The biggest strike against Jurrjens is the same one against the pitching prospect dealt this time last year: his health. After leaving his start against the Yankees with a painful pop in the back of his shoulder, his future was in doubt. That is why this is trade is a good risk. Jurrjens was already in a position where he was on the brink of never being a productive pitcher again. If you want to play a fun game, look up rotator cuff injuries to pitchers, when they occurred, and their statistics after the injury. The names Wade Miller, Ben McDonald, Robb Nen, and many others whose careers never got back on track will come up. This is not to say that Jurrjens is definitely going to get hurt, but he is an increased risk and it was a good move to cash in on him while he had value.

Gorkys Hernandez is an incredible talent, and has drawn rave reviews from the three people I get most of my prospect prognostication from: Mark Anderson (Tigstown.com), Kevin Goldstein, and Nate Silver (BaseballProspectus.com). All that said, you can still go back six years to the Tigers' last Venezuelan hyped toolsy player was a teenager. While Omar Infante wasn't getting near the reviews, you can see how a toolsy, non-dominant star prospect's star can diminish, especially considering Infante isn't really a flop.

Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens, believe it or not, are examples of why this trade should not be a problem. After years of struggling to produce talent from the Carribean, the Tigers have found Jair Jurrjens in Curacao, and Gorkys Hernandez is the first of what should be a large wave of Venezuelan talent from the team's new facilities there. Increased talent coming from Latin America should do wonders in gathering depth of talent in the system.

Edgar Renteria has had an interesting career. At times, he has been among the best shortstops in the league. His WARP totals range from 7.8 in 2003 to 1.5 in his forgettable 2005 season. The verdict of this trade will depend on if we get the 2003, 2006-2007 Renteria or the 2005 version.

In short, trades like the Renteria and Sheffield deals are merely signs that the Tigers are in a brand new position, and the role of prospects has changed. It's easy to get attached to prospects, especially after years of losing. With drafts like the last three and the team's increased presence internationally, this is something Dave Dombrowski can continue to do without sacrificing the future.