Roster Turnover

Tons of moves today, as expected.

Aquilino Lopez is on the berevement list with Denny Bautista getting recalled from his rehab.
Clete Thomas heads to the DL with a sprained ankle with Brent Clevlen coming up from Toledo.
Ramon Santiago was placed on the DL after his shoulder seperation and Michael Hollimon is up in his place.

Lopez's berevement stay should be short lived, at which point the Casey Fossum experiment will likely be over. Brent Clevlen was hitting the ball hard in Toledo and has earned this call up for the time being, and Hollimon was the likely choice to fill in as the utility infielder. Could he now have a shot at winning the 2009 starting shortstop gig?

Bautista's Injury

Denny Bautista's mop-up appearance started alright. He bailed Aquilino Lopez out of more trouble in the seventh inning, before a two out rally befell him in the eighth inning. Most notably, he left the game with an apparent injury with an 0-2 count. It was hard to tell what was wrong, and as of this posting nothing has been announced. Things had gotten rocky for Bautista of late. He had major control problems Tuesday night against the Yankees, and had started to get roughed up tonight. I thought his velocity was down tonight, and decided to check on his average fastball velocity from select appearances this year. Typically, a drop in velocity can be a warning sign of a potential injury. We'll see if we can spot anything in the pitch f/x data.

March 31: 96.2 mph
April 4: 94.2 mph
April 5: 94.9 mph
April 9: 94.5
April 10: 95.2
April 17: 94.5
April 18: 96.6
April 21: 94.9
April 22: 94.6
April 25: 92.7
April 26: 93.3
April 29: 92.8
May 2: 93.7

The drop hasn't been as significant as I thought, but it is still there. Before April 25, Bautista was averaging in the 94-97 range. Since, he has been averaging below 94 on his fastball velocity during every start. Could this be the result of an injury? Could it be the result of a mechanical flaw that led to the injury? Could it be nothing at all? It's hard to say one way or another. We'll have to wait on the prognosis before jumping to any conclusions. Regardless, this does raise a red flag for a bullpen that may not be able to handle too many more.

Update:
Shoulder Soreness is the initial diagnosis. Bautista has had similar problems in the past, missing much of 2005 with shoulder tendinitis. If a disabled list trip is required, some candidates to replace him in the bullpen would likely include Blaine Neal and Casey Fein.

Offensive Stats against Pitchers

I sometimes feel that it will be better to evaluate pitchers using the same scale we evaluate hitters. We have a much better intuition for what hitting stats actually tell you about a performance than we do pitching statistics. Here are the batting average against/on base percentage against/slugging percentage against off all of the Tigers pitchers.

Justin Verlander: .204/.314/.365
I expected this to be low. He's started off great in each of his starts. If there is one guy who has been hurt by the bullpen, this is it. Every runner he has inherited has scored, and he has been left out longer than he should have at least twice. Verlander will be fine.

Kenny Rogers: .333/.400/.483
Pretty much as you would expect, Rogers has been torched this year. There's no way around that fact. He has strugged with his control, and runners are getting on base at an alarming rate.

Jeremy Bonderman: .296/.363/.423
Hitters have been slightly better than league average against Bonderman. While I haven't delved into the pitch f/x data, it appears from watching the game that his slider doesn't quite have the effectiveness it did last season.

Nate Robertson: .304/.360/.522
The strikeouts are encouraging, the power numbers are not. Two homers and 11 extra-base hits has doomed Robertson to date. The good news is that batters are hitting .373 ontrelle balls in play against him. So long as the strikeouts stay, that number should fall.

Dontrelle Willis: .071/.435/.143
You would have known this was his line just from following the games. He threw 5+ innings of one-hit ball with a ton of walks, and then walked the first to batters of his next game. It's been pretty clear that while he has had problems finding the strike zone, players weren't making good contact against him.

Todd Jones: .217/.280/.304
The .263 BABIP is unsustainable. I would expect these numbers to rise. Knowing the Rollercoaster, it will probably happen when everything falls in for a week in late May.

Aquilino Lopez: .244/.255/.311
Guys just aren't reaching base against Lopez, who has been very effective. The importance of his 4IP relief appearance Friday night cannot be overstated.

Denny Bautista: .278/.381/.278
The walks are still there, but guys haven't really hit the ball that hard against him. Look for the batting average to drop a bit.

Bobby Seay: .231/.286/.231
While one bad outing can kill an ERA (4.91), you can see that it was a fluke from looking at the batting line. If utilized properly, Seay will be this team's best reliever.

Clay Rapada: .000/.000/.000
Hasn't allowed a base runner yet. You didn't need me to post this to calculate those stats.

Jason Grilli: .348/.500/.565
Yes, Grilli has been bad. The good news is that his BABIP is above .400. The bad news is that they are hitting the crap out of the ball and that may not come back down.

Zach Miner: .333/.472/.576
I don't ever remember Zach Miner walking this many people. During his first couple of appearances, there were some lucky breaks for the offense that led to singles. That has evolved into walks and a pounding.

Francis Beltran: .300/.417/.550
If you were wondering why he was sent out to make room for Armando Galarraga, this is why.

Yorman Bazardo: .500/.600/.786
The numbers don't lie. Bazardo was terrible and failed when all he had to do was get the team to the finish line.

Options and Waivers, Part 1

After reading Billfer's take on the bench, it became very clear that options and waivers will be causing issues for the Tigers this spring.

Here are some great references out there on roster rules:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/08/death_taxes_and_1.php
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=category&sectionid=19&id=44&Itemid=75
http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1860265
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/1999/0908/46397.html
http://wwww.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?author=85

There are more included in the bizofbaseball.com link.

I wanted to take some highlights and how this will effect the Tigers' decision making this March.

When a player is added to the 40-man roster, his club has three “options,” or three separate seasons during which the club may to move him to and from the minor leagues without exposing him to other clubs. A player on the 40-man roster playing in the minors is on optional assignment, and within an option season, there is no limit on the number of times a club may demote and recall a player. However, a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a Major League player on the disabled list during the 10-day window.

After three options are exhausted, the player is out of options. Beginning with the next season, he must clear waivers before he may be sent to the minors again. See Waivers. Additionally, a player with 5 years of Major League service may not be sent to the minor leagues on an optional assignment without his consent.

- Biz of Baseball

They go on to show how to calculate option years.

# If a player is not sent to the minors during a year, an option is not used.
# If a player is on the 40-man roster in spring training but optioned to the minors before the season begins, an option is used.
# If a player’s optional assignment(s) to the minors total less than 20 days in one season, an option is not used.

- Biz of Baseball

Here you can see when options are used by players. I wanted to point out that only one option can be used per year. In the instance of somebody like Craig Monroe in 2002 or Aquilino Lopez in 2007, only one option is used even though they were each shipped between Detroit and Toledo numerous times. The ultimate problem with running out of options is that a player cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. There is another case when this is true, from Keith Law

There is a rule rarely invoked in baseball that creates a situation where a player who has options remaining still has to clear waivers to be sent on an optional assignment. If the assignment is to begin at least three full calendar years from the date of the player's first appearance on a 25-man roster, then the player can not be sent on an optional assignment without first clearing major league waivers. These waivers are revocable, and players usually clear those waivers without incident.

So, what does this all mean? Ignoring the planned starting lineup, Vance Wilson, the Starting Rotation, Todd Jones, and Fernando Rodney, let's take a look at the option status of those fighting to make the team.

1. Any player who has been sent down on an optional assignment in three seasons is out of options, and will have to clear irrevocable waivers to be sent to the minors.

Three options used:
Denny Bautista (2004, 2006, 2007)
Yorman Bazardo (2005, 2006, 2007)
Tim Byrdak (1998, 1999, 2000)
Francisco Cruceta (2003, 2004, 2005)
Jason Grilli (2000, 2001, 2002)
Bobby Seay (2001, 2002, 2003)
Mike Hessman (2003, 2004, 2007)
Brandon Inge (2001, 2002, 2003)
Ramon Santiago (2003, 2006, 2007)
Freddy Guzman (2004, 2006, 2007)
Marcus Thames (2002, 2003, 2005)
Timo Perez (2001, 2002, 2007)

Two options used:
Macay McBride (2005, 2007)
Jordan Tata (2006, 2007)
Tony Giarratano (2005, 2006)
Brent Clevlen (2006, 2007)
Ryan Raburn (2004, 2005)

One option used:
Zach Miner (2007)
Clay Rapada (2007)
Rick Porcello (2007)
Virgil Vasquez (2007)

No options used:
Joel Zumaya

Out of the above players, barring injury, 15 will have to be sent down to Toledo, leaving a minimum of five players out of options who will have to be exposed to waivers.

I list Joel Zumaya because it would be interesting to see if he is sent on an optional assignment to Toledo to prevent service time from accruing during the injury. He's got three option years left, and could be arbitration eligible after this upcoming season. It's worth considering.

2. Players who first appeared on a 25 man rosters more than three calender years before the start of an optional assignment must clear revocable waivers.

Of the nine players who still have options remaining, only Ryan Raburn falls under this qualification, having made his Major League debut in 2004. Revocable waivers allow a team to pull a player back if they don't want him claimed. The waiver period in question runs from November 11 through April 30. This means the Tigers could have already slipped Raburn through waivers, allowing him to be optioned this Spring.

I'll talk more about the specifics of waivers and the likelihood of players being claimed in Part 2. In the meantime, if you have any questions, please leave them as I would love to answer them and feel they would be informative for anybody out there.