Tim McCarver is an Idiot... or Maybe Not

For my High School English Class, I had to write a journal at the end of every quarter. Essentially it was a way to express thoughts and boost grades from the harshly graded essays and exams. The problem was that I had forgotten about the journal and essentially put it off until the last minute. Luckily, this was around the time of the World Series, and a great source of untruths was blabbing on the air. To fill up my ten pages of thoughts, I wrote down Tim McCarver quotes while watching the Angels knock off the Giants and commented on their lunacy. I figure doing that tonight would be good way to spend what would be an otherwise boring, meaningless three hours.

I'll be updating this periodically through the night, documenting Tim McCarverisms that arise through this game that apparently counts.

There really wasn't anything from McCarver in the top of the first, but Brad Penny was pretty impressive. That Paul DePodesta was certainly fleeced for getting him for Paul LoDuca.

* Not an exact quote, because it would be impossible, but the delivery of the rant about New York teams with 3 players with 20 homeruns at the All Star Break was purely Bushtacular.
* "Vladimir saw his Anaheim Angels... ... ... move within three games..." Again, a Bush-esque pause, but nothing inherently idiotic.
* Again, not McCarver, but this "Heads and Shoulders" stuff needs to go the way of Scooter. Honestly, who thinks that belongs in a baseball game?
* "White Sox fans out there are wondering why they let Magglio Ordonez go, but it was because they signed Jermaine Dye, who has been one of the most proficient hitters this year." Tim has improved to the point where I have to call him out on this one. Magglio was let go because of injury concerns and the desire for a long term deal. Dye was not nearly as good as he is now at the time he was signed. 2.5 innings in, and there really hasn't been much ammo here...

The Future of the AL Central

Major League Baseball's proverbial door-mat since its creation in 1994, the American League Central (the only division in baseball never to produce a Wild Card) suddenly has suddenly risen to the top of baseball, behind the sudden dominance of our beloved Tigers and the Chicago White Sox. Even the "struggling" Twins are firmly above the .500 mark this season.

While the state of the division is strong, the future of the division remains even stronger. The Tigers are loaded with pitching with youngsters like Verlander, Bonderman, Zumaya with Sanchez and Miller likely waiting in the wings. The White Sox have core talent that is not particularly old, and a lack of burdensome contracts that will give the improved Ken Williams flexibility in the offseasons to come. The Twins already have arguably the top two lefthanded pitchers in the game in Santana and Liriano and Matt Garza waiting in the wings. With youngsters like Morneau and Mauer already anchoring that team, they are not likely to go away any time soon. The Indians have the makings of a young team, and the Royals themselves have some star young talent.

The question is, which team is best poised for dominance in the coming years? This is a tough question that I don't have an answer to. I'd like to see what some readers think.

This is more than likely going to be baseball's best division for years to come, which will make any success the Tigers have all the more rewarding.

Farmers of the Day (July 4, 2006)

Three players are going to be recognized in our first Farmers of the Day segment.

Ryan Raburn (2B, Toledo) went 2/3 with a 3-run homerun, a double, and a walk. It's always big news when Raburn plays secondbase and does not commit an error. No matter how bad a fielder this guy is, he is going to force his way onto the roster at some point if he hits the way he has been, especially with the way Craig Monroe has been playing.

David Espinosa (LF, Toledo) went 2/4, also with a double, homer, and a walk. This guy has done the reverse this year, as he normally starts off red hot before cooling off at the end of the year. Now hitting .281/.364/.510, Espinosa has re-established himself as a prospect. Like Raburn, there are severe defensive issues in play. Both Raburn and Espinosa are due to be minor league free agents this upcoming offseason. That can be avoided by adding them to the 40-man roster, something that could be made possible by the struggles of "prospects" in Erie and Lakeland.

The third and final Farmer of the Day is the top prospect in the system, Cameron Maybin. Maybin went 3/4, hitting his third homerun of the season. They say that homerun power is the last to come around. If that is the case and some of Maybin's doubles and triples turn into homeruns, watch out. Cameron has hit .309/.405/.470 this year, walking plenty, and even stealing 13/15 to boot. The strikeouts (63 in 181 AB) are up, but that is to be expected from an 18 year old facing professional pitchers for the first time. It's going to be fun to watch this kid develop.

Chris Shelton: Night and Day

Chris Shelton has been among the biggest enigmas in baseball this year. After electrifying the baseball world with his amazing April, he cooled off considerably, almost to the point where a trip to Toledo would have been the ticket to straightening him out. While he seemed to figure some things out offensively this past weekend, his defense seemed to elude him, making three errors and cutting off a ball when there was a clear play at the plate.

The ridiculousnes of plays like the cutoff not being an error aside, Chris has some interesting splits when you take a look at them. As his career is starting to reach the point where you can come to conclusions about his splits, Chris Shelton is clearly hits better in day games.



G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Day
82 248 44 83 16 0 17 38 24 60 0 0 .335 .398 .605 1.003
Night
132 465 62 120 19 6 18 63 45 122 0 1 .258 .328 .441 .769

Those numbers speak for themselves, as Chris Shelton clearly hits much better during day games than he does at night. This is something for Jim Leyland to keep in mind the next time he wants to give Pudge a break and play him at first base: do it at night.

Justin Verlander is on the last player ballot, a remarkable achievement for a Tigers rookie. Being scheduled to make his final start before the All Star Break tommorow, it appears as if Verlander is going to get significant rest the next couple of weeks regardless of if he pitches an inning on national television. Please, stop being irrational and go out and vote for him. The only thing worse than the inevitable Tim McCarver crediting the team's success to veteran leaders Pudge Rodriguez (fifth best position player) and Kenny Rogers (fourth best pitcher) is the sad fact that American baseball fans will believe every word. What is the harm in having a real Tiger pitching in this so-called Midsummer Classic?

Catcher of the Future?

Ivan Rodriguez is not getting any younger, and his numbers are slowly starting to show it. Sometime in the next couple of years, the Tigers are going to have to find a new catcher. Will they be able to plug somebody in from the farm without missing a beat or will the free agent markets have to be ventured into?

At the Major League level, Ivan Rodriguez is still regarded as one of the best in the league, despite youngsters like Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and to a lesser extent Russ Martin and Mike Napoli passing him over. Regardless, Pudge is far from a hole in the lineup or in the field yet. Signed through next season, the Tigers will have to make a decision on their Hall of Fame catcher. 2008 holds a $13 million option, with a $3 million buyout. As long as Pudge hasn't gone Dmitri Young on us, fans would go berzerk if he is not signed to a long term extension: a long term extension that is not a good idea. We are talking about a guy who at any moment could lose his remaining skills, and it would be a huge mistake to be on the hook for several years. As we have seen with guys like Todd Jones and Jeff Weaver this year, the bigger cost of signing bad players to big contracts is not the money, but the fact that they get far too many chances to justify the contract, regardless of how bad they play. Such a problem could arise if the Tigers opt to sign Rodriguez to a long term deal.

As for the option, a lot depends on which direction Pudge goes the next couple of years. If he stays about where he is (as PECOTA suggests he should), another year would not be a bad decision. If he declines even more next year, it may be time to look someplace else.

The most natural player that people will look at is Vance Wilson. Unfortunately, Vance is also getting up there in age. There is a good chance, at age 33, this is his last productive season. It would probably be wise to let Wilson go after the season and take a shot at a younger backup whose stock will be rising as Pudge needs more and more time off.

Next time around, I will take a look at possible free agents out there as well as a look down on the farm among Tigers catchers.

Random Thoughts

Nothing substantial from me today, as I continue to work on ranking prospects. An organizational overview of catchers should be expected at some point over the long weekend.

Nook Logan was demoted to Erie today, as the organizational 180 on Nook finally reached degrees 150 through 180. Once regarded as the centerfielder of the future, the question is not why was he demoted today (the pathetic .185/.284/.246 Toledo line speaks for itself). Instead, the question is why Nook Logan was allowed to get through AA in the first place. Having never offensively conquered a level at any point in his ascent to the Big Leagues, Logan fooled the people in charge by displaying amazing speed. Unfortunately for Nook, the team has a new-found eye for talent and realized that players like Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames help a team win games more than a player like Nook Logan. Just imagine if he were given the centerfield job out of the spring, or given the fourth outfielder spot forcing Thames to waivers.

54-25 after sweeping both of last year's NLCS teams?!?! I'm still waiting to wake up from this. This has been some sort of dream. Raise your hand if you thought before the season that Nate Robertson would not only out-duel Roger Clemens, but that it would be expected.

The difference between newly signed minor league free agent Dustan Mohr and Craig Monroe is smaller than you would think.

And finally, a get well to Peter Gammons: the rare mainstream baseball columnist who has both writing ability and baseball knowledge, and isn't afraid to share it. Believe me, the baseball world would not have been in the state of shock it was yesterday if the same news came out about Mike Lupica or Jay Mariotti, who would undoubtedly blame the condition on Barry Bonds's alleged steroid use.

Confidence

We can talk all day long about the tactical decisions made by Jim Leyland. Most have good (Thames and Granderson over Logan), but some (Todd Jones still closer?) bad. One thing this team has, as shown by tonight's ninth inning is confidence, something clearly brought in by Leyland and his coaching staff.

How often does a team face one of the top teams in the league down by two, but still feel confident that the game will be at least tied at the end of that inning? You could just feel it coming, and Marcus Thames delivered in a big way. This is undoubtedly a direct result of Jim Leyland's ability to get the best out of his players, and give them confidence even when the team is down. Whereas last year, when the team was losing, they undoubtedly had to deal with the wrath of renouned jerks Kirk Gibson and Juan Samuel, the team now goes by one slogan: "Nine innings." A tear came to my eye when Magglio Ordonez doubled, now the next several minutes will find out if this will be a victory.

Curtis Granderson just reached base the fifth time this game. It's a shame he's not a sparkplug like Juan Pierre.

Minors Rendezvous: Toledo's Starting Pitchers
Colby Lewis

Age: 26
Acquired: Waivers, Texas, 10/04
Major League Service Time: 3.08 years
One option remaining, not on the 40 man roster
Originally Drafted: Texas, 1st round, 1999

Once the top pitching prospect in Texas's farm system, Colby Lewis is the poster boy for TINSTAAPP. Drafted out of junior college, Lewis made it through the Texas system fairly quickly, making the big leagues in 2002, at the tender age of 22. Once there, his control suddenly left him, walking 109 in 176.2 innings during his time in the Big Leagues. That time was cut short early in 2004, when he first started having shoulder problems. After having surgery on his rotator cuff, the Rangers thought they could slip him through waivers at the conclusion of the 2004 season. They thought wrong, though, as Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers were quick to pick up this young arm with so much potential. While it was thought that Lewis may have been able to contribute last year, numerous setbacks stood in his way, including another surgery on his right shoulder. When all was said and done, 2005 was another wasted year, and being arbitration eligible after the season, the Tigers removed him from the 40 man roster and were able to re-sign him to a minor league deal.

So far, the second year of the Colby Lewis Era has been nothing but a pleasant surprise. Anytime you are dealing with a pitcher following problems in his throwing shoulder, any production is a big plus. Posting a 2.99 ERA in Toledo this year with just 21 walks in his 81.1 innings, Lewis has done well. If he can re-establish that low-mid 90's moving fastball with the breaking ball, Colby Lewis will probably stick around on a big league club, provided that he can work out issues he was having with command before the injuries. The results in Toledo suggest that he has come a long way. There is a chance it could be the Tigers who give him his shot, as he has one option year remaining, meaning that he can be added to the roster in September to help out in the bullpen, and then can be moved between Toledo and Detroit as needed next year. That seems like the probable scenario, given the team's scouts' love of this guys talent. Considering that Mark Woodyard, who is older with less upside, is being stashed on the 40 man roster, there will certainly be room for an arm that is only going to get better as he enters his peak years.

Minors Rendezvous: Toledo's Starting Pitchers
Chad Durbin

This will be a recurring segment, where an in depth look at each position and team is taken. The first time through, some basic background information on each player will be given with a bit of analysis. During the next trip, an update of players and maybe a segment on one that catches my eye. The first segment will take us to Toledo's starting pitchers, starting with Chad Durbin.

Chad Durbin
Age: 28
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 12/05
Major League Service Time: 2.23 years
No options remaining, not on the 40 man roster
Originally Drafted: Kansas City, 3rd Round

Once a shiny star in the Royals system, Durbin really slipped into oblivion in recent years. He spent almost the full season in 2001 with the Royals with mixed results. Ending up with a 4.93 ERA in 179 big league innings. Combined with his 27 innings in AAA Omaha, and Durbin pitched 206 stressful innings as a 23 year old. Whereas the Royals were expecting him to take the next step forward, Durbin predictably ran into elbow problems early in 2002. After spending much of the year on the DL trying to rehab those problems, he went under the knife for Tommy John Surgery in September of that year. Signing as a minor league free agent with Cleveland in 2003, Durbin spent much of his time rehabbing from his surgery before finally getting a cup of coffee with Cleveland. In his first start back he was beaten by the Tigers, one of the 43 times that happened. Cleveland kept him around in 2004, where he became sort of a 6th starter and spent the year between Toledo and Buffalo. After being claimed on waivers by Arizona and spending some time eating innings in September of '04, Durbin spent last year in Washington's system as primarily a starter struggling the whole time.

Chad Durbin has been a bit of a surprise this year, having not posted a good season since before his surgery. There may be a touch of legitimacy here, as the four-pitch pitcher may be recapturing his stuff that made him a top prospect in his younger days. The most obvious recent comparison from a role standpoint would have to be Jason Grilli, who paid his dues in Toledo's rotation last year after recovering from serious arm issues. I would not at all be shocked to see Durbin in Detroit's bullpen by the time September comes around, taking care of some garbage innings as the team is hunting for a playoff spot while also auditioning for a role with the 2007 team. In the meantime, being the staff veteran, if there comes a time where a roster crunch should occur and there are too many starters in Toledo, Durbin should be the one squeezed to the pen. Nothing against the way he has pitched this year, it's just that being a reliever is going to be the way he is likely to ever make the Tigers. Chances are, though, Chad will become a free agent at season's end, and try to latch onto a team short of pitching looking for a chance to break through.

It is fun to pile on the Royals, but here is another chance. Here we have a 23 year old pitcher, pitching 200+ meaningless innings in 2001, many of those innings involved massive pitch counts. While elbow injuries usually aren't an indictment of overuse, this still cannot be a good thing. Making matters worse, Durbin first started having problems with his elbow in April, and did not have surgery until September, only to have the team non-tender him in December. That just seems like a complete lack of planning to me, with an arm that was supposed to be a potential cornerstone. Even with hindsight supporting the move, this just shows a complete lack of planning to me. While the actual mixed signals and questionable decision showed a severe lack of a plan, it took four organizations for Durbin to actually start to have success. There is finally light at the end of this man's career: a chance to get back to where he once was headed. The only thing standing in his way is the most effective pitching staff in the Majors.

Random Thoughts

• Congratulations to Jim Leyland for acknowledging that you can use relievers for more than an inning. Could you imagine if Fernando Rodney had been pulled for Todd Jones in the 10th after just one inning? Yes, we probably will not have the services of Fernando Rodney tommorow, but who says we will need them? Once again, this team continues to beat up on the weak. It was just a couple of weeks ago that Chicago lost two of three to Tampa Bay. This is how you stay ahead of teams when you have a mental block against beating them head-to-head
• Jair Jurrjens recieved a much-deserved promotion to Erie today. The 20 year-old Curacao has posted remarkable numbers in Lakeland. Erie will be a test for him, as we will see if those strikes he will continue to throw will turn into ropes or remain groundouts and strikeouts as he faces advanced hitters. At the very least, there will be a 40-man roster spot for this young man at season's end. He's earned it.
• To Chris Shelton: snap out of it. I don't know why you are trying to pull everything, but you never used to.
  
• And a big sarcastic and classless thank you to Ben Roethlisberger for my next checkup costing $500. While you may not have been above the law when riding a motorcycle without a helmet today, you were above common sense. For every preventable surgery that comes from somebody not wearing a helmet, driving drunk, or giving themselves lung cancer, there is time and money in the medical field better spent, making for a more efficient and more healthy America. It's not tort reform, it's not "free" health care. Manageable health care costs will not come from the Government, instead coming from individual Americans making better choices. Unfortunately, that is unlikely ever to happen with all of the stubborn idiots like Mr. Roethlisberger that inhabit this country.
  

Learning from Mistakes

The Tigers' Minor League system has suffered a huge blow this year. Yes, after the graduation of the two most talented pitchers the organization has produced in ages will go a long way towards leaving a system relatively barren. Throughout the system, an even bigger, more troubling hit has been delivered: players thought to be top hitting prospects have stopped hitting.

Just shortly after debuting by telling how pointing to strikeouts for an otherwise productive Major League player can lead to false conclusions, I want to preface this by pointing out that strikeouts can be a serious problem for a hitter when not combined with walks to show that they are a byproduct of some degree of plate discipline. High strikeouts without production or walks show that a hitter is overmatched, struggles with breaking pitches, or cannot identify what pitches he should swing at.

What does this have to do with recent Tigers news? In conjuntion with several prospects including Clete Thomas, Jeff Frazier, and almost the whole Erie Lineup appearing to hit a wall as their K/BB ratio caught up to them this year, Tigers' Scouting Director David Chadd and company conducted a draft that almost seemed to right this organizational wrong.

Check out the BB:K ratios from this season of the first five college hitters taken in this draft.

Ronnie Bourquin: 32 BB/24 K
Brennan Boesch: 20 BB/23 K
Ryan Strieby: 46/39
Scott Sizemore: 28/26
Jordan Newton: 45/43

Note how all five of these players have exception BB/K ratios. What this shows is that players with great plate discipline were taken in Rounds 2-6. It almost seems that players without this skill were completely disregarded by Chadd and his crew. Can you blame them? This side of Cameron Maybin and Jeff Larish, there really aren't any offensive players in the system that you can look at and say "I can see him in the Major Leagues someday."

For a comparison, I will look at three college hitters whose stocks have really dropped this year: Clete Thomas, Jeff Frazier, and Tony Giarratano. Below are their BB/K ratios from their final year in college.

Clete Thomas: 33/61
Jeff Frazier: 28/27
Tony G: 24/33

Uh oh. While Thomas struggled in college, Frazier and Giarratano both had fared pretty well with their plate discipline in college, but have struggled of late in the pros. All of a sudden, it appears likely that this year's draft picks may not have as smooth of sailing as their statistics may suggest. Time will tell, but it may be the case that there is still an unsuspected hurdle for these guys to get over on the way to Detroit.

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

He may be posting a refreshingly impressive .388 onbase percentage
He may have a .493 slugging percentage going
But unfortunately:

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

Shagging fly balls at a rate nobody else in the league can claim
Leading the lead in almost every statistical defensive category for a centerfielder
But unfortunately:

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

According to EqA, he is among the best offensive centerfielders in baseball
Ranking with the likes of Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore
But unfortunately:

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

Showing impeccable instincts, he can track down almost any ball hit to centerfield
Coverting many extra-base hits to routine outs
But unfortunately:

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

Displaying constant improvement since he was drafted four years ago
He has answered many a question about his ability
But unfortunately:

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

Fans notice what they can remember, remembering walks back to the dugout
As a result, they foolishly note something about one of the elite young outfielders in Major League Baseball:

Curtis Granderson strikes out a lot.

Hey all.

I'm just throwing my hat into the blog ring. We'll see how this goes. I'll mostly be posting stuff about the Tigers, as there is a lot to post. This season really is a turning point in the direction of this franchise. A breakthrough year from Zumaya, Verlander, Granderson, and Shelton, and this team is suddenly an annual contender. I'm not going to talk about the other alternative, but let's just try to stay away from the phrase "Five Year Plan." I'll get this more up and running as I get more time. In the meantime, feel free to leave comments on things you may want me to be discussing.