Revising the Rotation

Before going on to the minor league rosters, I went through and made a few modifications to the rotation optimizer. Some of the areas where I took shortcuts to make the math easier were likely to throw things off. Here are some of the modifications I made:

For a three game series, I estimated the likelihood of three games being played, two games being played, one game being played, and no games. I did the same for four and three game series. In the scenario of a game being rained out before the end of the series, I assume it to be made up as a doubleheader unless that doubleheader is rained out. This was pretty simple to do in Excel.

I went all the way out to the All Star break this time. I assumed that despite the fact that the rotation will be shaken up, this will be accounted for in the randomness after mid May. For example, the probability of the rotation spots pitching in the late June Colorado series is:

1. 86.3%
2. 67.2%
3. 42.3%
4. 35.8%
5. 67.2%

Rather than assume 10% of games being rained out, I went through and calculated the percentages of games rained out in a month in the ball parks since 2002. For Comerica in April, this is 8.2%, but just 1.2% in June. Fenway (14.3% in April) and Progressive Field (15.5% in April) are by far the highest postponement risks. In the event that no rainouts occured in an outdoor park since 2002 (Comerica in July plus all of the California parks in June), I assigned a low value <0.5% to the rain-out risk, since there is still some possibility.

The results this time were a bit different. Below I list the sum of the (LOPS-ROPS)*P, where P is the probability of pitching in a series against the team.

1. 0.287
2. 0.202
3. 0.188
4. 0.194
5. 0.245

It appears as if the best places to throw the right-handed pitchers are the #1 and #5 spots. This creates a bit of a problem because one of the constraints we had was the fact that Leyland rightfully likes to separate Bonderman and Verlander. Using purely this chart, Verlander would probably be the #1 starter with Bonderman at #5. I would throw Rogers #2, since he is more likely than the other two lefties to miss time and be replaced by a right-handed alternative. Now, where should we place Willis and Robertson? Because Dontrelle Willis is a strong hitting pitcher, it would make sense to place him in the rotation spot where he is most likely to get to bat in an NL Park. Here's the average games started in an NL Park by rotation spot:

1. 1.785
2. 1.618
3. 1.683
4. 1.984
5. 1.926

Using this model, it appears as if Willis would be best utilized as the #4 starter. So, the optimized rotation is now:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Kenny Rogers
3. Nate Robertson
4. Dontrelle Willis
5. Jeremy Bonderman

One big caveat with this analysis: one shift in the rotation can throw everything off. For example, if the #3 starter wakes up feeling sick and switches spots with the #4 starter in the middle of April, we get this rotation:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Kenny Rogers
3. Dontrelle Willis
4. Nate Robertson
5. Jeremy Bonderman

It makes sense that #3 and #4 would simply switch. Now, what happens if Jeremy Bonderman feels sick one day in mid April and is skipped, moving everybody in the rotation up one spot? I don't have a way to simply model this happening, but you have to imagine that the imperfections of a starting rotation perhaps make this exercise irrelevant.

Projecting the Rosters: Pitching Wrap

Yesterday, I took a look at several pitchers throughout the organization. After the trades, there is not much separating many of these guys from each other. I'll go through and project the A Ball rosters and make any revisions to account for guys left out. To start, here are the rest of the pitchers who could see themselves in full season ball.

• Rick Porcello: Apparently this kid is pretty good. I've heard conflicting reports as to whether he ends up in Lakeland or West Michigan. The polish that scouts see and the Tigers' tendency to keep their stud pitchers in the warm weather tells me Porcello will be in Lakeland's rotation.
• Josh Rainwater: A meddling A-ball swing man, I probably should have included Rainwater yesterday as a long shot for Erie's staff. He may need a strong spring to stay in the organization.
• Matt Righter: Went back and forth between Erie and Lakeland last year in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Not much of a prospect, but could find him self as a swing man in Lakeland.
• Santo Franco: The Dominican reliever put up nice K rates in rookie ball last year. He may make a push for West Michigan's bullpen.
• Jay Sborz: It's been five years since he and Sleeth were taken 1-2 in the draft, a draft that is now truly a disaster. Needs a strong Spring to remain in the organization.
• Orlando Perdomo: West Michigan's closer in 2006, had a set back from his Tommy John Surgery. I'm not going to pencil him into any full season staff just yet.
• Ramon Garcia: Broke down after 75 strong innings in West Michigan two years ago. He was unable to return to form last year. As with Perdomo, until healthy, I'm going to assume Extended Spring Training.
• Justin Miller: A local boy picked up as an extra lefthanded arm down the stretch last year. I'll assume EST unless there is a need for a lefty reliever in Lakeland.
• Chris Homer: The one time Erie closer spent his time in rookie ball last season rehabbing from shoulder surgery. He seems likely to be cut.
• Collin Mahoney: There was a time when Mahoney was a hard throwing "Closer of the future." When he was unable to throw strikes in A ball, that label died. I'm guessing he is shown the door unless he can instill hope he can walk less than 12 guys per nine innings.
• Santo Mieses: Held his own in the GCL bullpen. Could be a candidate for West Michigan.
• Dario Carvajal: Pitched well in a duel role in the GCL last season. Could join West Michigan's staff.
• Wilton Garcia: As with the previous two guys, pitched well in his first season stateside last year. If the late season promotion to Oneonta is any clue, Garcia seems destined for West Michigan's bullpen.
• Adriano Santos: This will be his fifth season stateside, and he has yet to make much of a mark. May need a strong spring to keep his career alive.
• Luis Gil: The one time middle infielder's transformation to pitching got off to a great start three years ago, but injuries proved it was too much. He could crack a staff if he's healthy this Spring, but it doesn't seem like a guarantee.
• Phil Napolitan: Now 26, and yet to graduate past Grand Rapids. As an organizational favorite, he could stick around, but I doubt it.
• Zach Piccola: Fell out of favor after being taken in the 9th round in 2006. He had problems throwing strikes. I'm not sure where he'll be or if he'll break camp with the organization.
• Kelvin Cedano: His first season stateside was a successful one that saw him crack West Michigan's bullpen. I'm going to assume he starts there this year.
• Mark Brackman: The latest in the workhorse groundball types. I see him in West Michigan's rotation this year.
• Jon Kibler: Kibler impressed some folks last year in the summer leagues and performed well in his professional debut. I've got him pegged for West Michgian's rotation.
• Sean Finefrock: May crack West Michigan's rotation if there is room.
• Brandon Johnson: Also may make it to Grand Rapids if roster space allows.
• Manny Miguelez: Drafted as a raw lefty, seems to be a good choice for West Michigan's rotation.
• Noah Krol: Probably West Michigan's closer, but could be the beneficiary if Jensen is pushed to Erie.
• Erik Chricton: Another solid reliever from last year's Oneonta squad. I see him in West Michigan this year.
• Paul Hammond: A lefty organizational soldier. It's hard to tell if he will be anywhere.
• Rudy Darrow: Seems to have a shot at West Michigan's pen.
• Richard Zumaya: Has impressed some folks, and could start off in West Michigan.
• Aaron Fuhrman: Probably needs a year in Oneonta before reaching West Michigan.
• Brandon Hamilton: Should crack West Michigan with a strong Spring.
• Luke Putkonen: Out for the first part of the year, will start in extended Spring Training.

That should make everybody who has a shot at full season ball. That leaves the A Ball pitching staffs looking like:

Lakeland
SP:
Duane Below
Angel Castro
Charlie Furbush
Jonah Nickerson
Rick Porcello

RP:
Brett Jensen
Casey Fien
Alfredo Figaro
Ed Clelland
Josh Rainwater
Marcelo Perez
Gabriel Benitez

West Michigan
SP:
Mark Brackman
Brandon Hamilton
Brandon Johnson
Jon Kibler
Guillermo Moscoso

RP:
Noah Krol
Eric Cricton
Kelvin Cedano
Eleazar Aponte
Wilton Garcia
Lauren Gagnier
Zach Piccola

Cut:
Jon Connolly
Luis Gil
Paul Hammond
Chris Homer
Jeremy Johnson
Collin Mahoney
Anastacio Martinez
Orber Moreno
Matt O'Brien
Ian Ostlund
Matt Righter
Adriano Santos
Jay Sborz
Derek Witt
Sendy Vasquez

EST:
Dario Carvajal
Rudy Darrow
Sean Finefrock
Santo Franco
Aaron Fuhrman
Ramon Garcia
Matt Hoffman
Santo Mieses
Justin Miller
Richard Zumaya

DL:
Erik Averill
Casey Crosby
P.J. Finigan
Paul Nardozzi
Gary Perinar
Orlando Perdomo
Luke Putkonen
Brayan Villareal
Joel Zumaya

The Cut list is pretty generous. As soon as injuries and other unforeseen circumstances strike, there will be room for guys like Connolly, Johnson, and Martinez in Erie and Toledo. I'll look through the catchers next, while updating the pitching projections over the course of the preseason.

Projecting the Rosters

One of the fun things to do this time of year is to figure out where all of the players in the system will end up. While a fun activity, it is often inexact and dependent on injuries and other intentions that are not released to the general public. I'm going to spend a few weeks making roster projections for the Major League roster and the four full season rosters. As news breaks, I can go back and change those predictions very easily. As always, the engineer in me will start out with a couple of assumptions:

• No players will be lost on waivers. While, this is not an entirely accurate assumption, roughly 90% of players placed on waivers in spring training clear. These players will qualify for the minor league rosters. If time goes on and somebody gets claimed on waivers, I will adjust the projections accordingly
  
• No injuries will occur aside from the ones already reported. We know, for example, that Luke Potkonen had minor shoulder surgery and won't be pitching until mid-summer. Brent Dlugach's shoulder is still recovering from labrum surgery, and prized draft pick Casey Crosby would have to recover about a year ahead of schedule from Tommy John to even think about starting the season on an active roster. Joel Zumaya won't be back until summer, and Vance Wilson is still doubtful to be ready in time on opening day. There are a few other injuries out there, but I'm not going to assume, for example, that Fernando Rodney will start on the disabled list because he felt a little pain this morning. I'll adjust the rosters later on as injuries are reported.
• No external moves will occur. Yes, it is very possible a team becomes desperate for a thirdbaseman and picks up Brandon Inge. It is also possible the Tigers claim a player off of waivers, make a trade, or pick up a minor league free agent. I will not incorporate those moves into these projections until made official.

I will start with pitching. The most logical place to start is with the Major League roster. The Tigers rotation is pretty much set in stone, barring injury. Four spots in the bullpen have been confirmed to be locked up.

Detroit:
SP:
Jeremy Bonderman
Nate Robertson
Kenny Rogers
Justin Verlander
Dontrelle Willis

RP:
Todd Jones
Fernando Rodney
Bobby Seay
Tim Byrdak

Jason Grilli, Zach Miner, Yorman Bazardo, Denny Bautista, and Francisco Cruceta will be fighting for the last three spots. It is very difficult to say who gets those spots. Zach Miner is the only one with options, but he is the one who Leyland has hyped this most this spring. Cruceta and Bautista are wildcards. Based on the fact that they are unknown and have the most downside, I am going to leave them as the odd men out for now, leaving Grilli, Miner, and Bazardo in the pen.

Toledo:
There are several candidates for Toledo's pitching staff this year. Here's how Toledo's opening day pitching staff has broken down the past few season:

• Virgil Vasquez: Probably a lock for the Toledo rotation.
  
• Jordan Tata: Also a virtual lock for the Toledo rotation.
  
• Armando Galarraga: Just acquired from Texas, and will probably join Toledo's rotation.
  
• Macay McBride: As reported earlier in the week, the Tigers plan on stretching McBride out and making him a starter. Whether this leaves him as part of a starting tandem, in the rotation on his own, or as a long man will remain to be seen. I'm going to include him as a Toledo starter.
  
• Clay Rapada: The backup LOOGY with two options left, Rapada will be in Toledo's bullpen to start the season.
  
• Denny Bautista: A one time starter, Bautista worked entirely out of relief last year. If he is in Toledo, it would likely be as a reliever and spot starter. I'll start him in Toledo's bullpen.
  
• Francisco Cruceta: It's very likely Cruceta will be with the big club, but due to the roster crunch, I am going to start him in Toledo's bullpen as an arm in waiting.

Next, we have non-roster invitees:

• Francis Beltran will probably be in Toledo's bullpen. Still under two years removed from Tommy John Surgery, he should put up a strong year this year.
• Freddy Dolsi spent last season in Lakeland, and is doubtful to start the year above Erie.
• Jeff Gerbe spent most of last season in West Michigan, and I would be surprised to see him start above Erie.
• Chris Lambert will probably be the fifth member of Toledo's rotation.
• Preston Larrison regained some velocity last season and will probably be in Toledo's bullpen this year.
• Aquilino Lopez went back and forth between Toledo and Detroit last season, and will probably return as Toledo's closer this season.
• Matt Mantei's comeback has gotten off to a fine start. While Troy Percival's comeback last season helps to maintain the hope that he will return, it is still a long shot. I don't know the specifics of his out clauses, but for the moment I will pencil Mantei in as a the Hens' twelfth reliever.

Here's how Toledo's staff looks:

SP:
Armando Galarraga
Chris Lambert
Macay McBride
Jordan Tata
Virgil Vasquez

RP:
Denny Bautista
Francis Beltran
Francisco Cruceta
Preston Larrison
Aquilino Lopez
Matt Mantei
Clay Rapada

Here's a quick list of players who spent a portion of last season in AA or AAA. While I don't have room for them on Toledo's roster, don't rule them out especially if a player is claimed off waivers or an injury occurs.

• Eddie Bonine: Spent much of last season in Erie's rotation and probably deserves a spot in Toledo's rotation.
  
• Juan Cedeno: One time top Red Sox prospect brought over in the Rule 5 draft. Probably could be a starter or reliever.
  
• Danny Christensen: Acquired from Kansas City for Roman Colon, Christensen could be a starter or reliever at Erie or Toledo.
  
• Jon Connolly: A great minor league innings eater, I'd expect him in Erie's rotation so long as there is space.
• P.J. Finigan: Recovering from Tommy John surgery last summer.
  
• Ben Fritz: Another Rule 5 pickup and a candidate for Toledo's rotation.
• Jeremy Johnson: Split last season as a reliever between Erie and Toledo.
  
• Andrew Kown: A starter in Erie last season.
  
• Anastacio Martinez: A reliever in Toledo last season.
  
• Orber Moreno: One time top relieving prospect, attempting a comeback from injuries.
  
• Ian Ostlund: Lefty reliever who has spent time at Erie and Toledo the past couple of seasons.
• Marcelo Perez: Minor league pickup from the Mets.
  
• Matt Rusch: Put up fine numbers last season despite skipping a level.
  
• Anthony Tomey: Got to know the Ohio turnpike pretty well last year going between Toledo and Erie.
  
• Danny Zell: Another solid season put up by an Erie reliever. As with Rusch and Tomey, he move up to Toledo if there is room.
  

Those pitchers are all candidates right now for Erie in addition to the following potential Lakeland and West Michigan graduates.

• Luke French: Lakeland's best pitcher last season will likely get a promotion to Erie.
• Alfredo Figaro: Scouts love his stuff, and he bounced around the lower levels last season. I doubt he crack's Erie's staff.
• Matt O'Brien has always been a bit old for his levels. Now pushing 26, he will need to put up a good spring to stay in the system.
• Eleazar Aponte: A bit disappointing in his second season stateside last year, Aponte bounced around and was hit hard in Lakeland. I doubt he makes it to Erie.
• Sendy Vasquez: Nobody took a bigger step backwards than Vasquez, who went from a great season in West Michigan to bombing in Lakeland amidst a steroid suspension.
• Kyle Sleeth: Now almost three years removed from Tommy John surgery, it can no longer be used as an excuse. Sleeth will need to show something this spring to avoid being cut.
• Guillermo Moscoso: Now 24, will have to rocket through the system this year to become an impact player. I'd expect him in Lakeland or West Michigan to start the season.
• Gabriel Benitez: A great arm that struggled last year in Lakeland. I doubt he is promoted.
• Brendan Wise: The Aussie had a great breakout season last year, and I expect him to crack Erie's bullpen. If there is veteran backlog, he could return to Lakeland to be promoted later in the season.
• Derek Witt: Your typical run of the mill low level reliever. I don't think he crack's Erie's staff.
• Angel Castro: Promoted mid-season from West Michigan to Lakeland last year. Drafted in 2006 and now 25, he will need to move fast. If he has a strong spring, there's not much standing in his way to make Erie's rotation.
• Erik Averill: Had Tommy John surgery last season and probably won't be ready until this summer.
• Duane Below: Made a strong case to skip Erie. It's mostly fodder in the rotation now, so he can push his way into Erie with a strong spring.
• Charlie Furbush: Pitched very well last season, but I expect him to be in Lakeland or West Michigan's rotation.
• Lauren Gagnier: A bit of a disappointment last season. Could be in Lakeland or West Michigan as a reliever or starter, or could be let go.
• Luis Marte: The short Dominican reliever did well in the GCL last season, but didn't dominate A ball. I'd expect him back in West Michigan.
• Jonah Nickerson: Really came on strong towards the end of last season. A strong possibility for Lakeland's rotation.
• Brett Jensen and Casey Fien: Both had great season's last year. There doesn't appear to be room in Erie's bullpen, so I will have them anchoring Lakeland's pen to start this year.

I just listed a ton of pitchers, and there are even more up for consideration for full season spots. For now, here's how I see Erie's staff.

SP:
Eddie Bonine
Danny Christensen
Luke French
Ben Fritz
Andrew Kown
RP:
Juan Cedeno
Freddy Dolsi
Jeff Gerbe
Matt Rusch
Anthony Tomey
Brendan Wise
Danny Zell

That's a lot of information for one post. I'll come back tomorrow with a rundown of the rest of the candidates, a projection for Lakeland and West Michigan's staffs, and a summary of who is leftover perhaps revising the rosters. I will say this: Glenn Ezell and company have their work cut out for them this spring, as there don't appear to be clear cut spots for a lot of the pitchers.

Rodney Hurt

From the Free Press:

Right-hander Fernando Rodney, counted on for a crucial role in the Tigers' bullpen, has had pain in his throwing shoulder this week.

Is this ominous news for the regular season? Or is it a minor spring-training health issue that will be forgotten by Opening Day?

That will be impossible to say until Rodney shows whether he can pitch without any problems in the upcoming monthlong exhibition season.

Rodney said Wednesday the shoulder pain is similar to the pain he had last season that forced him onto the disabled list.

Instead of trying to pitch through the pain, as he did last season, he is being cautious and has ceased pitching, at least for a few days.

For a bullpen with a lot of question marks, this is definitely bad news. I worry about lingering shoulder problems in any player. Pain is the body's way of telling us something isn't right. While this could be tendonitis again, the fact that it hasn't gone a way is troubling. This just goes to show why it helps to have depth in the bullpen in the spring.

Update: It looks like he's fine.

There's some concern here about Fernando Rodney, who complained of some soreness in his right shoulder. But Rodney played catch for eight minutes this morning, and said later that he felt good.

"It's nothing bad,'' Rodney said.

Tiger officials suspect that Rodney is simply going through normal early-spring soreness, but because he's had injury trouble in the past, they want to make absolutely sure that he's all right.

Certainly problems like this that keep cropping up without going away are a cause for worry. The big problem is that it is difficult to separate normal soreness from pain and injury. Obviously, the hope is everything is okay. Without Fernando Rodney in the bullpen, crucial innings will likely go to an unknown. While a Bautista or Cruceta could break through, we all remember what happened when Jason Grilli and Zach Miner got eighth inning work during Rodney's injuries last year. It wasn't pretty.

McBride To Start?

I came across this little bit in Jason Beck's mailbag.

The plan on McBride is to stretch him out this spring as a starter and try to recapture some of the success he had in that role earlier in his career. Plus, Seay and Byrdak appear set as the left-handed options for the bullpen.

That seems interesting and certainly gives the Tigers another option as a long man. McBride still has an option left, so the stretching out can take place in Toledo. In 2002, he put up a 2.12 ERA with 7.9 k/9 in A ball and followed that up in High A with a 2.95 ERA and 102 k/9. Also looking at the numbers, McBride seemed to have his walks under control as a starter. This looks like a worthwhile experiment.

Optimizing the Starting Rotation

There is going to be a lot of talk this spring on how the Starting Rotation should be ordered. Besides, after Justin Verlander, the Tigers currently have four players who could be anywhere from great to bad this season. Jeremy Bonderman was lights out for much of the first half of 2007, and was on the rise until the elbow problems rendered him ineffective last season. Dontrelle Willis has been among the game's best in his career, but has declined significantly the past two seasons. Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers also pose serious question marks. The likely rotation will likely have Verlander pitching on opening day, with Rogers pitching between Verlander and Bonderman

A lot of the rotation talk will focus on the order of the rotation, and who deserves to go in which spot. The best way to tackle the rotation is to look at the match-ups of the opponents. Below are the OPS vs. LHP - OPS vs. RHP for each American League team in 2007.

Toronto 0.133
Tampa Bay 0.065
Oakland 0.049
Seattle 0.043
Cleveland 0.037
Detroit 0.034
Kansas City 0.028
Chicago 0.012
Texas 0.008
Baltimore 0.006
Los Angeles Angels -0.002
Boston -0.008
Minnesota -0.014
New York -0.055

If we assume the tendencies stay the same (an assumption that may not hold for overhauled lineups like Minnesota, Chicago, and Oakland), this table shows that you want your right-handed pitchers facing teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay, while saving the lefties for Boston, Minnesota, and New York.

Looking at the Tigers first 20 opponents, the starters would face the following teams:
1
Kansas City
Chicago
Chicago
Cleveland
2
Kansas City
Boston
Chicago
Toronto
3
Kansas City
Boston
Minnesota
Toronto
4
Chicago
Boston
Minnesota
Toronto
5
Chicago
Chicago
Cleveland
Toronto

Next I averaged the OPS differences for each opponent, putting Kenny Rogers between Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander, and assigning remaining highest split to Dontrelle Willis, who has a bigger split for his career than Nate Robertson. The result was:

Kenny Rogers
Justin Verlander
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis
Jeremy Bonderman

Can you imagine the outcry if Justin Verlander was not the opening day starter? Indeed, this seems to make the most sense. The opening day starter will appear to miss the right-handed heavy Blue Jays. It would be best if that pitcher is left handed. Surely, there must be a way to justify the decision to make Justin Verlander the Opening Day starting pitcher.

There is.

The above analysis ignores an all too common phenomenon that occurs in April: postponements. When looking through parks where the Tigers play outdoor games, I found roughly 10% of games April 20 or sooner are rained out. I made some quick assumptions to make the calculations a bit easier:

• Only the last game of a series getting rained out affects the rotation. I am assuming that games earlier in the series will be made up the next day.
• Only one game can be lost per series. This one is a bit precarious, especially after the blizzard in Cleveland last year. This cuts down scenarios significantly leaving only six games to worry about.
  
• The Tigers five starters will stay healthy and pitch their turn throughout the course of the first 20 games.
• Only one or two of these games will be postponed. Scenarios of three or more were deemed unlikely, and their probability was close to zero.
  

Since there were six games that could affect the rotation, each at 10% likelihood of raining out (or snowing out or freezing out), the odds of pitchers facing their no-rain-out opponent is 40%. Here is the weighted average OPS difference of each rotation slot:

1. 0.160
2. 0.170
3. 0.158
4. 0.159
5. 0.140

According to this, the right-handed pitchers should go 1-2, with the lefties going 3-5. 1,3, and 4 are interchangeable. I am going to move one of the right-handers from 1 to 4 to split them up, and put Rogers in between. Bonderman has a higher platoon split than Verlander, so he will go in the #2 spot. Dontrelle Willis's platoon split will put him into the #5 spot, leaving the rotation as:

1. Nate Robertson
2. Jeremy Bonderman
3. Kenny Rogers
4. Justin Verlander
5. Dontrelle Willis

I don't think that rotation would be too popular, even if this study shows it to be the most effective. There were so many assumptions and shortcuts made here, that this rotation may not even be the best. Jim Leyland will still have to consider home/away splits, and other factors that come up. Still, while it is a nice reward for your ace, it is not always the best strategy to pitch your best pitcher on opening day.

Rumor Mongers Rejoice

Great news for everybody promoting the questionable practice of trading Rick Porcello. He has now been signed for six months and can be included as the player to be named later in a trade. The same goes for Cale Iorg. For anybody out there making up stupid trade rumors, they now have some credibility in that the trades can actually happen. Have at it!

More Waivers

Spring Training is starting up, which inevitably means we are going to hear about how Player X will probably make the team over Player Y because they are out of options. As I already showed, most players clear waivers anyways. What type of players don't? Is a player being claimed a big loss? Here's a list of every player I could find who was placed on outright waivers from late February through early April last year.

Yoel Hernandez	Philadelphia	2/22/2007	Cleared
Lincoln Holdzkom	Texas	3/10/2007	Cleared
Jason Stokes	Florida	3/16/2007	Cleared
Jack Cust	San Diego	3/17/2007	Cleared
Ben Hendrickson	Milwaukee	3/18/2007	Cleared
Michael Restovich	Washington	3/19/2007	Cleared
Bernie Castro	Washington	3/19/2007	Cleared
Matt Roney	Toronto	3/22/2007	Cleared
JD Closser	Colorado	3/22/2007	Cleared
Sean Tracey	Chicago White Sox	3/23/2007	Baltimore
Chris Narveson	St. Louis	3/24/2007	Cleared
Bobby Crosby	Cincinnati	3/24/2007	Cleared
Jonathan Johnson	Atlanta	3/24/2007	Cleared
Tim Redding	Washington	3/25/2007	Cleared
Billy Traber	Washington	3/25/2007	Cleared
Jermaine Van Buren	Washington	3/25/2007	Cleared
Rick Bauer	Texas	3/26/2007	Cleared
Marino Salas	Milwaukee	3/26/2007	Cleared
Charlton Jimerson	Houston	3/26/2007	Cleared
Ezequiel Astacio	Houston	3/26/2007	Texas
Jeff Salazar	Colorado	3/26/2007	Arizona
Adam Donachie	Kansas City	3/26/2007	Cleared
Mike Rivera	Milwaukee	3/27/2007	Cleared
Grant Balfour	Milwaukee	3/27/2007	Cleared
Luis Terrero	Chicago White Sox	3/27/2007	Cleared
Scott Dohmann	Tampa Bay	3/28/2007	Cleared
Kenny Ray	Kansas City	3/28/2007	Cleared
David Krynzel	Arizona	3/29/2007	Cleared
Brian Tallet	Toronto	3/29/2007	Cleared
JD Durbin	Minnesota	3/29/2007	Arizona
Alexis Gomez	Colorado	3/30/2007	Cleared
Andy Phillips	New York Yankees	3/30/2007	Cleared
Jon Adkins	New York Mets	3/30/2007	Cleared
Merkin Valdez	San Francisco	3/30/2007	Cleared
Dustin McGowen	Toronto	3/30/2007	Cleared
Ezequiel Astacio	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Marlon Byrd	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Guillermo Quiroz	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Francisco Cruceta	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Adam Fox	Texas	3/31/2007	Cleared
Andrew Brown	San Diego	3/31/2007	Cleared
Justin Germano	San Diego	3/31/2007	Cleared
Michael Garciaparra	Seattle	4/1/2007	Philadelphia
Antonio Perez	Oakland	4/1/2007	Cleared
Todd Williams	Baltimore	4/1/2007	Cleared
JD Durbin	Arizona	4/5/2007	Boston
Simon Ferrer	Colorado	4/6/2007	Cleared

That's 47 players placed on outright waivers last spring training, with 41 clearing. That's 87.2% of players who could not make the roster making it through waivers without a problem. On top of that, what has happened to those players who were claimed?

Sean Tracey is best known as the pitcher who Ozzie Guillen called out for not throwing at a hitter. He wasn't even out of options last spring, so the White Sox were simply trying to clear room on the 40 man roster for somebody. He was then claimed by Baltimore, who eventually removed him after getting injured and struggling in the minors.

Texas claimed Ezequiel Astacio off waivers from Houston. Out of options, the Rangers also had to send him through waivers, where he cleared and put up a 5.5 ERA in AAA Oklahoma over the course of the season.

Jeff Salazar still had an option remaining, so he was claimed when he didn't have to be sent through waivers. Still, as a fourth outfielder at best, the Rockies didn't miss much from losing him.

J.D. Durbin is the most interesting of all of these guys. Ranked as the Twins' #10 prospect last year, injuries forced Durbin into running out of options in the spring. Not making the Twins roster, he was claimed off waivers by Arizona (8th priority). Arizona then tried to slip him through waivers, where he was claimed by Boston (20th priority). Boston, also without room on the roster for Durbin, put him on waivers, where he was claimed by Philadelphia (18th priority). Philadelphia, in what must have been a tumultuous few weeks for Durbin, pushed him through waivers, this time clearing. You could make the case that Durbin was lost as a result of being out of options, but the the Twins were truly serious about wanting him, they could have claimed him when Philadelphia put him out there. Durbin eventually put up an ERA north of 6 with meddling ratios in 65 innings of work as a swing man. This is not a move the Twins will end up regretting.

Michael Garciaparra was claimed by Philadelphia. In addition to being the latest to come down with Billy Ripken Syndrome, Garciaparra still had three option years remaining, and put up pathetic numbers across three levels last year before being moved off the roster.

In conclusion, two players who were out of options were claimed off waivers last Spring. Both cleared waivers within a month after being claimed. The amount of options a player has left should not be considered in whether or not he makes a roster.

2008 Media Guide Released

The Tigers have released their 2008 Media Guide to the masses. It is several hundred pages of some of the most random and useful information out there. Most information inside of it can be found elsewhere, but there are two sections that can come in handy for the true baseball dorks out there:

The Minor League section:
http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/pressbox/downloads/y2008/det/player_dev.pdf

Every player in the organization is listed there with their career statistics. While most players are known and their stats are available online, some transactions go unreported, such as the late January signing of minor league utility man Derek Wathan. Also, this is the closest thing we have to an up-to-date list of recent Domincan and Venezuelan signings. Many of these have been reported, but I wanted to give a list of all the players who have been signed that did not play last year:

Gino	Aguirre	RP	R	R	6.20	155	9/12/1990	Nueva Esparta, VZ
Carlos	Alvarez	RP	R	R	6.10	175	1/15/1991	Caracas, VZ
Wilfredo	Hoyer	C	R	R	6.01	180	5/14/1991	Miranda, VZ
Javier	Azcona	SS	R	R	6.10	180	8/28/1991	Colui, DR
Alexander	Nunez	SS	R	R	5.11	172	5/4/1990	La Vega, DR
Josue	Carreno	RP	R	R	6.01	170	6/26/1991	Edo Nueva Esparta, VZ
Ricardo	Olivo	C	R	R	6.00	179	11/5/1990	Santiago, DR
Raynolds	Guzman	C	R	R	6.00	185	9/16/1990	Santo Domingo, DR
Bruce	Rondon	RP	R	R	6.02	190	12/9/1990	Valencia, VZ
Domingo	Gonzalez	SS	R	R	6.01	175	3/10/1991	Bani, DR
Luis	Sanz	C	R	R	5.10	165	2/23/1991	Gualtire, VZ
Yinio	Calderon	SP	R	R	6.04	170	11/16/1990	La Vega, DR
Emmanuel	Del Orbe	SP	R	R	6.03	188	12/20/1990	Santo Domingo, DR
Francisco	Melo	SP	R	R	6.03	180	2/27/1991	Bani, DR
Avisail	Garcia	CF	R	R	6.03	190	6/12/1991	Anzoategui, VZ
Oscar	Gomez	SS	R	R	5.11	155	3/25/1991	Miranda, VZ
Francisco	Martinez	3B	R	R	6.01	180	9/1/1990	Miranda, VZ
Hernan	Perez	SS	R	R	6.00	160	3/26/1991	Arugua, VZ

These signings happen throughout the year, and more guys will be brought in between the printing of this guide and the start of the summer leagues.

One other name you may not recognize is Darwin DeLeon, previously known as Edward Reynoso. Will he come state-side this year after dominating the Dominican Summer League last year? I know the answer, but can't tell. Check out Tigstown.com to get the list of those coming to the states this year.

The list of major league players in the media guide is pretty useful:

http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/pressbox/downloads/y2008/det/tigers.pdf

Most of the information is available online through MLB.com. There is one bit of information, though, that isn't. That's the service time. It may be a bit confusing when seeing it the first time around. It may seem like a pretty big coincidence that no players have fractional service time that exceeds X.2. This is because service time is not represented in a decimal form. For example, Tim Byrdak's Major League Service is listed as 2.161. This is not 2 years plus another 161/1000 of a year. It's actually 2 years and 161 days in a year, where 172 days counts as a full season. There is no rounding in service time. If you are at 5.171, you have to wait a whole season to become free agent eligible.

Pitchers and catchers officially report tomorrow, but if it makes anybody feel better, most players have already reported to Spring Training. The greatest time of year is almost here. I can't wait.

Transactions Roundup

It's been a long week, and I wanted to get caught up on the transactions I missed.


Tony Giarratano Released
A setback in his rehab was reported last month, and the feable Tony Giarratano era came to a screaching halt with his release last week. It became clear that he was never going to be able to stay healthy enough to play shortstop for the Tigers. The ultimate result of this transaction is a free roster spot, and the team's medical resources are able to be focused on players who have played since 2006.


Curtis Granderson Signs Extension
5 years/30.25 Million with an option year is an absolute steal. I had Granderson making 26 million through arbitration leading up to free agency. Yes, this deal only buys out one or two free agency years, but somebody of Granderson's on and off-field value is worth much more than this.

Acquired Armando Galarraga from Texas for Mike Hernandez
Undoubtedly, this will be bemoaned by minor league hounds, who grow attached and overrate anybody in the Tigers minor league system (see Bierd, Randor). This is still a solid trade. Galarraga had been designated for assigment by Texas last week, similar to Yorman Bazardo last year. Already 26, Galarraga missed much of 2002 and 2003 recovering from Tommy John Surgery and had further elbow problems in 2006, delaying his arrival. With one option year left, Galarraga will probably be in Toledo's rotation this year. I think this is a fine pickup, given his career strikeout rates.

Mike Hernandez is a fine story, picked out of a tryout camp a year after finishing college, he got off to a great start in both 2006 and 2007, but cooled off significantly. We are still talking about a 24-year old restricted to first-base with a career .320 minor league OBP. This is not a big loss.

Options and Waivers Part 3

After looking at the potential roster crunch the Tigers will have this year, it is time to start calculating the risk of losing certain players on waivers. The first variable I am going to look at is the month.

The term "out of options" did seem to rise to the forefront last season. This is no coincidence. In the new collective bargaining agreement put into effect after the 2006 season, players were granted an extra year before becoming eligible for the Rule 5 draft. As a result, more borderline major leaguers have found themselves on 40 man rosters over the past few years rather than fourth year professionals on their first option year. This, in turn, has created more situations where players out of options need to clear waivers.

I bring this up because the data I have collected is for the 2007 calender year only. While the sample is smaller, the face of the waiver wire has changed in such a way that the 2006 data may distort any trends. Below is a chart of all waiver data by month in 2007. All totaled, 79.4% of players placed on waivers last year cleared.

From a year's data, it's difficult to find trends. The spike in percentage clearing from 70% in May, July, and August to 90% in June seems like a fluke. The amount of players going on waivers in October is a result of the deadline for activating players from the 60-day DL. Teams have to cut their roster down before the off-season, and it's no surprise that many (83.5%) of these players clear waivers.

The month in which the highest amount of players cleared waivers was March, the time when teams are cutting down to their 25 man roster. This bodes well for teams that are afraid of cutting a player in Spring Training because they are afraid of the player clearing waivers. 90.2% of players placed on waivers last March cleared and stayed with their teams. This data would suggest that if a team is worried about losing a player to waivers, the team should put them through waivers in March. In addition to the likelihood of losing the player being at its lowest, there is additional benefit. In general, players who are kept because they are out of options are kept over players with options who are better than them.

By choosing an inferior player in Spring Training because they are out of options, a team decreases the quality of players and increases the risk that the player will be lost to waivers when they ultimately give up on the player.

After the next round of research, I will take a look at other effects that go into waiver risk.

Happy 90th, Ernie

One of my favorite Youtube videos:

A different view of pitching statistics

Below are the 2007 major league offensive numbers put up against Tigers pitchers on the 40 man roster. Without cheating, can you match up the pitcher with the stats?

Major League (BAA/OBPA/SLGA)

Denny Bautista
Yorman Bazardo
Jeremy Bonderman
Tim Byrdak
Jason Grilli
Todd Jones
Macay McBride
Zach Miner
Nate Robertson
Fernando Rodney
Kenny Rogers
Bobby Seay
Jordan Tata
Virgil Vasquez
Justin Verlander
Dontrelle Willis
Joel Zumaya

A. .189/.291/.295
B. .228/.299/.323
C. .218/.281/.356
D. .233/.309/.358
E. .238/.320/.378
F. .230/.330/.370
G. .267/.331/.371
H. .263/.339/.377
I. .273/.342/.385
J. .264/.331/.439
K. .278/.326/.453
L. .258/.387/.367
M. .283/.343/.445
N. .294/.369/.477
O. .302/.406/.566
P. .429/.489/.500
Q. .360/.407/.747

Jose Canseco has no credibility

Just bear that in mind when you read the news Thursday. The man is trying to drag everybody with success through the mud with him. Is anybody remotely surprised that he is now targeting the two best players from 2007 in his upcoming "book?" The guy is a loser, a schmuck, and has absolutely no credibility. Get your information from better sources and don't buy this jerk's books.

Options and Waivers, Part 2

Before getting into waivers, I want to get into one more aspect of options that Billfer brought up, and that is the fourth option. From the Biz of Baseball:

A player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of professional experience. A full season is defined as being on an active pro roster for at least 90 days in a season. (If a player is put on the disabled list after earning 60 or more days of service in a single season, his time on the DL is counted.) The 90-day requirement means short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.

Rick Porcello, being added to the 40 man roster straight out of High School, is a candidate for this fourth option. As it stands, Porcello has four option years remaining as per the most recent collective bargaining agreement, meaning he doesn't have to reach the big leagues until opening day 2012.

When trying to option a player on waivers, you have to consider three variables:

• How much value will the player being kept provide over the player being put on waivers?
• Can we afford to lose this player on waivers?
• What is the likelihood that this player will be claimed on waivers?

I wanted to spend the next two posts taking a look at the third question on this list, and maybe another looking at finding an objective way to look at the first two. I also want to point out that we are talking about irrevocable waivers, which are different from the waivers that players are put on in August after the trading deadline.

What better way to find the risk of a player being claimed off waivers than looking at their individual waiver history? Several player who are out of options have been for many years and could be exposed to the waiver wires time and time again.

Denny Bautista:
Believe it or not, Denny Bautista has never been on waivers. The Tigers are his fifth organization, and he has been on a 40 man roster since the time the Orioles purchased his contract after the 2003 season.

Yorman Bazardo: Yorman Bazardo has also never been on waivers. He was designated for assignment last offseason, but the Tigers acquired him before he was placed on waivers.

Tim Byrdak: Byrdak epitomizes the term journeyman. His first stint in the big leagues was from 1998 through 2000 with the Royals. During that time, his three option years were used up. Rather than trying to option him after the 2000 season, Kansas City opted to non-tender Byrdak, making him a free agent. Byrdak never sniffed a 40-man roster again until getting his contract purchased by Baltimore in July of 2005. He stayed on Baltimore's roster until August 2006 when he was outrighted (clearing waivers) to Ottawa.

Tim Byrdak is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Francisco Cruceta: Another journeyman, this is Francisco Cruceta's fifth organization. Unlike Bautista, though, Cruceta has only been traded once. He first used up his options from 2003 through 2005 with the Indians having been slow to develop into the type of pitcher they wanted. They tried to sneak Cruceta off the 40-man roster in August, but Seattle was there to claim him. It appears as if the Mariners were able to slip him through waivers between August and January, when he received a spring invitation. Brought back onto the 40-man in September, 2006, Cruceta was put through waivers again after the season and claimed by Texas. He would not make the Rangers out of spring training, and cleared waivers before being sent to Oklahoma City for the duration of the season.

Francisco Cruceta is 2/4 in clearing waivers.

Jason Grilli: Another hard-throwing bullpen candidate who has bounced from team to team, Grilli is in his fourth organization. A high first round pick by the Giants, traded to the Marlins as part of the Livan Hernandez deal, there was a time when Grilli was a top notch pitching prospect until injuries derailed his status. After 2002, he successfully cleared waivers while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Drafted by the White Sox in the next season's Rule 5 Draft, Grilli again was put on waivers during the Spring of 2004. Aside from not even being claimed, the Marlins rejected the White Sox' mandatory offer of the Rule 5 draftee. The final time Jason Grilli was put through waivers was after the 2004 season when Chicago designated him for assignment and ultimately released him.

Jason Grilli is 3/3 in clearing waivers.

Bobby Seay: Seay ran out of options after the 2003 season, and failed to make the 2004 (Devil) Rays. He then succesfully cleared waivers during spring training. Seay was next placed on waivers as a Colorado Rockie during the 2005 season, again clearing before becoming a free agent after the season. Finally, Seay cleared waivers as a member of the 2006 Tigers.

Bobby Seay is 3/3 in clearing waivers.

Mike Hessman: Hessman has never been on irrevocable waivers. As a player who had made his debut four years before being optioned last year, he did have to clear revocable waivers, but I'm not going to count that in this discussion. It appears as if revocable waivers are very easy to clear.

Brandon Inge: A Tiger his whole life, and on the 40 man roster uninterrupted since the 2000-2001 off-season, Brandon Inge has no waiver experience.

Ramon Santiago: Santiago has only had to clear waivers once, after the 2004 season when the Mariners were making room on the 40-man roster. Twice, though, did he have to clear revocable waivers: in 2006 and 2007 with the Tigers.

Ramon Santiago is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Freddy Guzman: Speedy outfielder Freddy Guzman is loved by all that seem to believe that Dave Roberts' 2004 ALCS steal embodies all that is right with small ball and justifies giving players who can do nothing but run a roster spot. For Guzman, this would be his first time on waivers, as he is just running out of options.

Marcus Thames: Once among the many highly touted Yankees prospects before being traded to Texas. The Rangers were able to succesfully get Marcus Thames through waivers after the 2003 season. He promptly declared free agency and signed on with the Tigers.

Marcus Thames is 1/1 in clearing waivers.

Timo Perez: I'm not quite sure where Timo Perez stands. He cleared waivers earlier in the offseason, and it is still the same waiver period. Does that mean he has to clear again? Is he even on the 40 man roster? I had thought so yesterday until his name showed up among the spring invites. For Perez, this was his second time on waivers having also been outrighted in 2006 with the Cardinals.

Timo Perez is 2/2 in clearing waivers, but may not have to clear this Spring.

There you have it. Francisco Cruceta is the only player on the roster with a history of being claimed off waivers. Over the course of the next few posts, I'll have to take a look at several potential variables that go into a player's waiver risk. Some that are going to be tested include:

• Prospect Status: Could a player being mentioned among Baseball America's top prospects play a role in their likelihood of being claimed? On top of that, a 2007 top prospect will certainly be claimed before a 2000 top prospect.
  
• Time of waiver: Roster crunches occur at different times of the year. Certainly, around November and December when players are being protected from the Rule 5 draft, it's probably much easier to clear waivers than mid-season where teams have more room on their reserve roster.
• Recent performance: One would think a player coming off of a fine season would have a harder time making it through waivers.
• Injury status

If you can think of any others, please let me know. Again, if you have any questions about anything, bring them up so they can be clarified.

Options and Waivers, Part 1

After reading Billfer's take on the bench, it became very clear that options and waivers will be causing issues for the Tigers this spring.

Here are some great references out there on roster rules:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/08/death_taxes_and_1.php
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=category&sectionid=19&id=44&Itemid=75
http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1860265
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/1999/0908/46397.html
http://wwww.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?author=85

There are more included in the bizofbaseball.com link.

I wanted to take some highlights and how this will effect the Tigers' decision making this March.

When a player is added to the 40-man roster, his club has three “options,” or three separate seasons during which the club may to move him to and from the minor leagues without exposing him to other clubs. A player on the 40-man roster playing in the minors is on optional assignment, and within an option season, there is no limit on the number of times a club may demote and recall a player. However, a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a Major League player on the disabled list during the 10-day window.

After three options are exhausted, the player is out of options. Beginning with the next season, he must clear waivers before he may be sent to the minors again. See Waivers. Additionally, a player with 5 years of Major League service may not be sent to the minor leagues on an optional assignment without his consent.

- Biz of Baseball

They go on to show how to calculate option years.

# If a player is not sent to the minors during a year, an option is not used.
# If a player is on the 40-man roster in spring training but optioned to the minors before the season begins, an option is used.
# If a player’s optional assignment(s) to the minors total less than 20 days in one season, an option is not used.

- Biz of Baseball

Here you can see when options are used by players. I wanted to point out that only one option can be used per year. In the instance of somebody like Craig Monroe in 2002 or Aquilino Lopez in 2007, only one option is used even though they were each shipped between Detroit and Toledo numerous times. The ultimate problem with running out of options is that a player cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. There is another case when this is true, from Keith Law

There is a rule rarely invoked in baseball that creates a situation where a player who has options remaining still has to clear waivers to be sent on an optional assignment. If the assignment is to begin at least three full calendar years from the date of the player's first appearance on a 25-man roster, then the player can not be sent on an optional assignment without first clearing major league waivers. These waivers are revocable, and players usually clear those waivers without incident.

So, what does this all mean? Ignoring the planned starting lineup, Vance Wilson, the Starting Rotation, Todd Jones, and Fernando Rodney, let's take a look at the option status of those fighting to make the team.

1. Any player who has been sent down on an optional assignment in three seasons is out of options, and will have to clear irrevocable waivers to be sent to the minors.

Three options used:
Denny Bautista (2004, 2006, 2007)
Yorman Bazardo (2005, 2006, 2007)
Tim Byrdak (1998, 1999, 2000)
Francisco Cruceta (2003, 2004, 2005)
Jason Grilli (2000, 2001, 2002)
Bobby Seay (2001, 2002, 2003)
Mike Hessman (2003, 2004, 2007)
Brandon Inge (2001, 2002, 2003)
Ramon Santiago (2003, 2006, 2007)
Freddy Guzman (2004, 2006, 2007)
Marcus Thames (2002, 2003, 2005)
Timo Perez (2001, 2002, 2007)

Two options used:
Macay McBride (2005, 2007)
Jordan Tata (2006, 2007)
Tony Giarratano (2005, 2006)
Brent Clevlen (2006, 2007)
Ryan Raburn (2004, 2005)

One option used:
Zach Miner (2007)
Clay Rapada (2007)
Rick Porcello (2007)
Virgil Vasquez (2007)

No options used:
Joel Zumaya

Out of the above players, barring injury, 15 will have to be sent down to Toledo, leaving a minimum of five players out of options who will have to be exposed to waivers.

I list Joel Zumaya because it would be interesting to see if he is sent on an optional assignment to Toledo to prevent service time from accruing during the injury. He's got three option years left, and could be arbitration eligible after this upcoming season. It's worth considering.

2. Players who first appeared on a 25 man rosters more than three calender years before the start of an optional assignment must clear revocable waivers.

Of the nine players who still have options remaining, only Ryan Raburn falls under this qualification, having made his Major League debut in 2004. Revocable waivers allow a team to pull a player back if they don't want him claimed. The waiver period in question runs from November 11 through April 30. This means the Tigers could have already slipped Raburn through waivers, allowing him to be optioned this Spring.

I'll talk more about the specifics of waivers and the likelihood of players being claimed in Part 2. In the meantime, if you have any questions, please leave them as I would love to answer them and feel they would be informative for anybody out there.

Morosi 1, Henning 0

Two Top prospect lists were announced today. Baseball America released its list, compiled by John Paul Morosi of the Free Press. Not to be outdone, Lynn Henning posted his top 20.

Baseball America:
1. Rick Porcello, rhp
2. Cale Iorg, ss
3. Scott Sizemore, 2b
4. Michael Hollimon, 2b/ss
5. Yorman Bazardo, rhp
6. Jeff Larish, 1b
7. Matt Joyce, of
8. Danny Worth, ss
9. Francisco Cruceta, rhp
10. Brandon Hamilton, rhp

Like most people out there, I was a bit surprised to see Cale Iorg that high. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus had him ranked #4, but those rankings came out while Cameron Maybin (#1) was Detroit property and Casey Crosby (#3) had his previous elbow ligament. There seems to be somewhat of a consensus between their sources that Cale Iorg is very very impressive. It's hard to argue with that notion, as there is next to no data out there on him. He played just a couple of weeks in Lakeland before missing the Hawaii league with a minor injury.

For a guy with next to no power, Scott Sizemore seems kind of high to me. Jeff Larish may seem low to some people, but as I pointed out Wednesday, it's justified. Matt Joyce performed well enough in Erie to raise some eyebrows, and all reports suggest he has a great arm. Danny Worth has been overrated by many fans after a supposed hot start this year, and Francisco Cruceta cracking the #9 spot shows just how depleted the farm system is.

Overall, I have no major gripes with this list. The most egregious omission would appear to be James Skelton, but I have heard hesitation that he deserves a catcher of the future tag.

Henning:
1. Rick Porcello, RHP, 6-5, 200, age 19
2. Cale Iorg, SS, 6-2, 175, age 22
3. Casey Crosby, LHP, 6-4, 195, age 19
4. Jeff Larish, 1B, 6-2, 200, age 25
5. Matt Joyce, RF, 6-2, 185, age 23
6. Danny Worth, SS, 6-1, 180, age 22
7. Scott Sizemore, 2B, 6 feet, 185, age 23
8. Michael Hollimon, SS, 6-1, 185, age 25
9. Jeff Gerbe, RHP, 6-3, 190, age 23
10. Clete Thomas, CF, 5-11, 195, age 24
11. Tony Giarratano, SS, 6-0, 180, age 25
12. Brent Dlugach, SS, 6-5, 200, age 24
13. Brent Clevlen, RF, 6-2, 190, age 24
14. Wilken Ramirez, OF, 6-2, 190, age 22
15. Joe Bowen, C, 6-1, 190, age 20
16. Devin Thomas, C, 5-10, 195, age 22
17. Audy Ciriaco, SS, 6-3, 195, age 20
18. Preston Larrison, RHP, 6-4, 235, age 27
19. Freddy Dolsi, RHP, 6 foot, 160 pounds, age 25
20. Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, 6-1, 160, age 24

The top eight, in no particular order, seem reasonable. Jeff Gerbe seems pretty high at #9, as I have a hard time seeing a guy bound for relief as the third-best pitcher in the organization. Clete Thomas had an okay year last year, but he is a guy with contact issues and limited power. Tony Giarratano and Brent Clevlen were both defense-first shortstops who have yet to return from labrum surgery. As such, they really don't belong in the discussion. Brent Clevlen's stock has taken a huge hit after terrible years in 2004, 2006, and 2007. It's spelled Wilkin. There is no way Joe Bowen belongs in this discussion at all, especially with the absence of Skelton. Preston Larrison is no longer a prospect, while Freddy Dolsi and Guillermo Moscoso are way too old for their levels.

I was trying to hold out until the motownsports.com fan rankings come out, but I will post my Top Ten today:

1. Rick Porcello
2. Yorman Bazardo
3. Mike Hollimon
4. Jeff Larish
5. James Skelton
6. Charlie Furbush
7. Matt Joyce
8. Danny Worth
9. Scott Sizemore
10. Virgil Vasquez

Porcello is obvious. Despite the full rotation, I do believe that Yorman Bazardo has the stuff and ability to crack the rotation in the event of the inevitable injury. It will be very important that the Tigers don't make a mistake and let him go this spring. Hollimon comes in over Larish because there are more possibilities for a middle infielder than a firstbaseman. I admit that Skelton and Furbush are probably too high, but there isn't much out there. Both had pretty good seasons this year, and I believe Skelton will forever be battling biases against his size as a catcher. Joyce's plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired, and as a corner outfield he needs to be doing better than just above average offensively. I'm still not sure Worth and Sizemore will hit enough, and Virgil Vasquez leaves a lot of balls up in the zone. I have Cale Iorg in at 15, although a top notch season this year will shoot him up where those in the organization apparently think he belongs. I'm confident in Casey Crosby's recovery, but do want to see some results or a positive prognosis before placing him high on the list. I just think the rust may be too hard to kick off.

Two more avoid arbitration
Finally, the Tigers avoided arbitration with Miguel Cabrera ($11.3 million) and Bobby Seay ($780,000). Both were right around what I expected. Seay was really an unsung hero last year, as he was arguably the team's best reliever, as he was finally utilized in an advantageous manner with lefties hitting just .209/.270/.275 against him.

Marcus Thames Avoids Arbitration

As reported on the Tigers official site and the MLB.com transactions page, the Tigers have avoided arbitration on Marcus Thames, signing him to a one-year deal. I cannot find the terms anywhere, but if I was to guess, I would say this is on the order of $1.5 million.

I would imagine Seay will sign shortly. The delay on Miguel Cabrera probably has to do with long term negotiations. The Tigers may bite the bullet and sign him for one year if things can't be worked out over the long term.

For an update, there still haven't been any terms disclosed on the contract. Believe it or not, a player of Thames' caliber could probably justify $5-8 million on the open market, so the deal will probably come at a discount.

In somewhat related news that I found out by doing a Google News search of "Thames," the River Thames apparently had flooding issues yesterday. It doesn't appear as if anybody is hurt, but I wish the best to our friends the Brits.

Danny Knobler is now reporting the deal is worth $1.275 million, a good deal for a player who could play a key role in the event of injury.

Keeping Jeff Larish in Perspective

By most Tigers' fans measures, Jeff Larish has become the Tigers' second best prospect. The first baseman put up solid numbers in Erie this past year in just his second professional season, but the bar is raised pretty high for someone who has nowhere else to move on the defensive spectrum. I don't think Tigers fans realize how uninspiring Jeff Larish is in the big picture.

Taking a look at the top 20 (by VORP) 1B in 2007, here are their offensive splits from their age 24 seasons:

Larish (AA) .267/.390/.515

Albert Pujols (MLB) .331/.415/.657
Prince Fielder n/a
Carlos Pena (MLB) .232/.316/.448
Ryan Howard (AA/AAA) .291/.369/.637
Mark Teixeira (MLB) .281/.370/.560
Todd Helton (MLB) .315/.380/.530
Derrek Lee (MLB) .281/.368/.507
Lance Berkman (MLB) .297/.388/.561 (AAA) .330/.476/.563
Adrian Gonzalez (MLB) .304/.362/.500
Dmitri Young (MLB) .310/.364/.481
Kevin Youkillis (AA/AAA) .285/.427/.409
James Loney n/a
Matt Stairs (AAA) .267/.347/.426
Justin Morneau (MLB) .237/.304/.437
Ryan Garko (AAA) .303/.384/.498
Casey Kotchman (MLB) .296/.372/.467
Paul Konerko (MLB) .298/.363/.481
Scott Hatteberg (AA/AAA) .242/.328/.386
Conor Jackson (MLB) .291/.368/.441
Adam LaRoche (MLB) .278/.333/.488

So at age 24, 15 of the top 20 first-basemen in baseball last year had reached the major leagues. In the case of Loney and Fielder, they are younger than Larish and have already established themselves as top flight major league hitters. You will also note that of those 15, 12 put up pretty good numbers in the majors with Morneau having an injury-plagued uncharacteristic down year. Of the five players who hadn't reached the majors, all had made it to AAA by this point in this career. Adjusting for era (Stairs and Hatteberg were 24 in the early 90's), only Scott Hatteberg was less impressive in his time in the minors with Stairs and Youkilis playing at roughly the same level as Larish.

Based on that, I'd say the odds are stacked against him at this point. "But he was just drafted in 2005! It's not his fault the Tigers have moved him slowly!" you could point out. Ignoring the fact that several players drafted in 2005 have already made big impacts at the big league level and the fact that Larish hasn't performed at a level to force the organization's hand, we can take a look at the AA performance of the above 20 1B's.

Pujols (skipped AA)
Fielder (20) .272/.356/.473
Pena (22) .299/.411/.533
Howard (24) .297/.374/.647
Teixeira (22) .316/.403/.591
Helton (22) .332/.424/.486
Lee (22) .280/.363/.570
Berkman (22) .306/.422/.555
Gonzalez (21) .283/.326/.393, .307/.371/.409
Young (21/22) .272/.325/.406, .292/.345/.455
Youkilis (23/24) .344/.450/.500, .327/.472/.465
Loney (20/21) .238/.311/.327, .284/.357/.419
Stairs - AA number not available... yes, he's that old
Morneau (21) .298/.353/.474
Garko (23) .331/.382/.523
Kotchman (21) .368/.419/.544
Konerko (20) .300/.393/.543
Hatteberg (22-24) 3 unspecacular seasons
Jackson (22) .301/.368/.456
LaRoche (23) .283/.379/.511

Larish stacks up a bit better here, until you throw in the fact that he was, in most cases, two years older than most of these guys when he was in AA.

Overall, the point of this is that he is not an elite 1B prospect by any stretch of the imagination. Even without Carlos Guillen signed through 2011, it would be tough to count on Larish to be a serviceable 1B for more than a year or two.

Robertson Locked Up

The Free Press is reporting Nate Robertson has signed a 3 year, 21.25 million dollar contract. This contract buys out two years of arbitration eligibility and one year of free agency. In my mind, this is a deserved contract. Even though Robertson has been around average in his time with the Tigers, left-handed pitchers are historically more expensive than their right-handed counterparts. This is the going rate for a left-handed starting pitcher, especially one who is strong in the community with a good head on his shoulders.

Using some of the procedures laid out in Vince Gennaro's Diamond Dollars (expect a review on that in the coming days and analysis of tools learned in the book over the coming year), I have estimated Nate Robertson to be worth roughly $29 million over the next three years if he was a free agent. By those calculations, this will be a good deal, even though he projects to be overpaid in 2010. I'll have more on those calculations in the coming days.

Marcus Thames, Bobby Seay, and Miguel Cabrera all the remaining arbitration eligible players.

Gold Mine!

I had stumbled upon the Tigers' media guide as a great reference last year. Yesterday, I did the same with all 30 media guides. Really, any information you may want on players (through a year ago) can be found in these guides.

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/media_guides/index.jsp

Based on the dates of some signings, I would imagine these are put up at the beginning of Spring Training. I would expect the 2008 versions to be released in roughly a month.

More Minor League Signings

Making the first news in a while, the Tigers announced the signings of 11 players yesterday, four of which have already been known. While such news would enable us to get away from the mainstream media revealing their collective ignorance of the performance enhancing drug or Hall of Fame debates, it's not likely that these players will contribute much to the Detroit Tigers as a whole.

We'll start with the guys who we've already known about I've already covered pitchers Francis Beltran, Marcelo Perez, and Jon Connolly. Dane Sardinha was announced several weeks ago, and he projects to be the team's third catcher as things stand right now. Sardinha was drafted by the Reds in 2000 as a player with great defensive polish. They banked on his bat developing, but it never happened. Throughout his professional career, Sardinha's offensive results have been putrid at best. Luckily, he will only be counted on if Vance Wilson's recovery from Tommy John Surgery requires a short term fix in April.

Pitchers Anastacio Martinez, Jeremy Johnson, and Ian Ostlund were all in the Tigers' system last year, before becoming six-year free agents. Martinez was picked up from Washington's system and has bounced around. He was a reliever and spot starter for Toledo towards the end of the season. I would expect him to do much of the same this year. Ostlund was originally drafted by the Tigers in 2001, and has served as a lefty reliever, bouncing between Erie and Toledo last season. Jeremy Johnson was hot stuff a few years ago before undergoing major shoulder surgery. He became a valuable part of Toledo's bullpen this past season. Scouts still aren't impressed with his repertoire and doubt he'll be a force with the big club.

Utility men Henry Mateo and Caonabo Cosme will offer much needed flexibility to Toledo and Erie, which are restricted to 23 and 24-man roster limits. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to offer anything to the Tigers. Jackson Melian will probably return in his Kirk Airoso role as Erie's DH and provide a stable bat to Erie's lineup. The history of Jackson Melian's prospect-hood is pretty interesting and might be worth an entry during these January doldrums.

Finally, Max St. Pierre returns after a one-year retreat from the organization that included a conversion to pitcher. I haven't heard for sure if the Tigers plan to use him at catcher, but I have to imagine St. Pierre will be donning the tools of ignorance given the team's lack of depth at the position.

Overall, these signings provide little in the way of potential for the Tigers' roster. The next news will likely deal with the arbitration cases of unsigned Tigers. Bobby Seay, Nate Robertson, and Miguel Cabrera all still need contracts. Players and teams will file for arbitration from January 5-15, exchanging figures on the 18^th before hearings occur the early part of February. No player has gone to arbitration in Dave Dombrowski's time here, and I don't expect that to change.

Clemens Worked Hard. So What?

It's not impossible. You do it with hard work. Ask any of my teammates. Ask anybody that's come here and done the work with me.

This is a great excuse for Roger Clemens, but unfortunately, I don't see how he can use hard work as proof that he never used steroids. See, anybody who knows anything about what steroids actually do to the body probably had extreme doubts when anybody uses the hard work excuse. Below is an excerpt from Will Carroll's book The Juice, undoubtedly the best of the books released in the past few years on steroids.

Testosterone, which is the primary active ingredient – in synthetic form – in any anabolic steroid, acts directly in muscle tissue. It increases the speed at which muscle cells are produced and repaired. This same action that stimulates protein synthesis also serves to inhibit protein degradation. This inhibition is known as the anti-catabolic effect (catabolism is a destructive metabolic process by which organisms convert substances into excreted compounds) and plays a major role in allowing the anabolic steroid user to train more often with heavy resistance. The user must also maintain a high-protein and fairly high-calorie diet during the training regimen.

A necessary component in the use of steroids, in order to realize gains in strength, muscle growth, and lean body mass, is heavy resistance training. Because of the anti-catabolic effect, the steroid user does not have to wait 48 hours for the muscles to recover from a previous bout of heavy resistance training. Instead of having to work the upper body one day and the lower body the next, the steroid user can work the full body every day with heavy resistance, without having to worry about the effects of muscle breakdown.

Mr. Clemens, if you were a hard worker and were able to work out more frequently, it is very possible it is steroids that enabled you to do that. That is what they are designed to do!!!

Do Number 1’s face Number 1’s? – Part 2

Last time I started to take a look at the assumption by many in the sports media that pitchers often go up against those in the same rotation spot as then, thereby predicting improvement for pitchers who move from being a team's #4 to #1. I've been working on a lengthy study to test this theory, especially after hearing many analysts describe the help that Dontrelle Willis will get from not having to go up against opposing aces anymore.

Last time, I showed that the opening day order of a starting rotation will rarely be in order of that season's performance level. This is due to several reasons, including injuries, veteran preference, matchup strategies in deploying the rotation, and surprises or disappointments that a player experiences. Of the 20 teams observed, though, nine opening day starters ended up being the team's best and four more ended up being the team's second-best starting pitcher. Chances are, if you are facing a team's opening day starter, you are facing one of their better pitchers.

Next, I wanted to take a look at the assumption that teams' rotations are actually aligned over the course of a season, allowing #1 starting pitchers to regularly face #1 starters and #4 starters to regularly face #4's. I did this by looking at the Tigers' 2007 opening day rotation and the starting pitchers that they faced in each of their starts. A Number 6 starter is defined as one who didn't start

Jeremy Bonderman (Opening Day Rotation: #1)

Faced #1: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #2: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #3: 2 times (8.3%)

Faced #4: 5 times (20.8%)

Faced #5: 3 times (12.5%)

Faced #6: 6 times (25.0%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 3.2625

Nate Robertson (Opening Day Rotation: #2)

Faced #1: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #2: 3 times (9.7%)

Faced #3: 5 times (16.1%)

Faced #4: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #5: 4 times (12.9%)

Faced #6: 12 times (38.7%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitcher: 2.3129

Justin Verlander (Opening Day Rotation: #3)

Faced #1: 8 times (25.0%)

Faced #2: 2 times (6.3%)

Faced #3: 6 times (18.8%)

Faced #4: 7 times (21.9%)

Faced #5 5 times (15.6%)

Faced #6: 4 times (12.5%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.0469

Mike Maroth (Opening Day Rotation: #4)

Faced #1: 4 times (30.8%)

Faced #2: 1 time (7.7%)

Faced #3: 1 time (30.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #5: 2 times (15.4%)

Faced #6: 3 times (23.1%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 3.9615

Chad Durbin (Opening Day Rotation: #5)

Faced #1: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #2: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #3: 3 times (15.8%)

Faced #4: 2 times (10.5%)

Faced #5: 4 times (21.1%)

Faced #6: 3 times (15.8%)

Average SNLVAR of opposing pitchers: 2.4824

As this shows, it appears to be random as to which pitcher a starting pitcher will oppose. While Jeremy Bonderman faced #1 pitchers in 20.8% of his starts, Justin Verlander and Mike Maroth both faced the opposing team's ace more often in their starts. Nate Robertson, the #2 starter, faced easily the weakest starting pitchers of anybody over the course of the year.

Several aspects lead to the randomness of pitching matchups.

-Injuries: Justin Verlander is the only Tigers pitcher to spend the entire season in the rotation. Injuries in a rotation can cause a pitcher to be moved up a day, back a day, or inserted into the rotation at the most convenient spot. With how often pitchers miss starts, it's a wonder that anybody could begin to think #1's face #1's.

-Rotation Style: The role of the fifth starter varies by manager. Many skippers will go 1-5, while several will use their fifth starter only during streaks of five or more games without an off-day. Chad Durbin's first start was pushed back to the sixth game of the season, so the #5 starter was facing the Blue Jays' #2. Different managers deploy their starters in different ways, and it is impossible to say that pitchers will be aligned based on their opening day spot in the rotation.

-Weather: All it takes is one rain-out to move a rotation up or back a day. In the case of the Mariners and Indians last April, their rotation was reset after a snowy weekend off. Postponements lead to another rotation juggler: double-headers. Spot starters come up from the minors, possibly facing that day's starter. Overall, the weather can play a large role in rotations becoming out of sync.

-The All-Star Break: The most boring three days in the baseball season also help to throw this myth into disarray. Rotations are frequently reset after the all-star break. Some team's aces go the first game after the break, while some aces are given a few days to recover from their All Star appearance. I assumed that there may be a chance that an All Star pitcher would face more aces after the break, but Justin Verlander faced just three of his eight after the All Star Break.

-The Schedule: Some teams play six games in a week; some play seven. Once again, teams' rotations get out of sync.

If teams played one game every day in domes, and pitchers never ever got hurt, you could make the case that pitchers at the bottom of a rotation have an easier time. The problem is they don't, and as such, anybody who uses a pitcher's spot in the rotation as an excuse probably doesn't know what they are talking about.