Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Projected Elias Rankings

The good news is that I have finally, with reasonable certainty, figured out the disabled list adjustment in the Elias Rankings. The bad news is that it requires going through every player's transactions data and does not lend itself to quick updating.

This post will have my projected Elias Sports Bureau Rankings. I will post a different positional group every few days.

Players in Bold will be free agents after the year. Players in bold and italicized have options on their contracts.

For more information on where these numbers are coming from, check the following posts:
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/07/almost-how-elias-sports-bureau-rankings.html
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/07/one-more-elias-post.html
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/real-quick-elias-update.html

If you have any questions, please leave them in the comments section or email me, and I should be able to answer them.

American League Catchers
Updated: September 14
Name Type TotalScore
Victor Martinez A 91.935
Joe Mauer A 88.479
Jorge Posada A 84.332
Jason Varitek A 78.341
A.J. Pierzynski A 76.498
Ramon Hernandez A 74.654
Ivan Rodriguez B 72.350
Dioner Navarro B 67.281
Kurt Suzuki B 64.055
Mike Napoli B 62.442
Kenji Johjima B 61.751
Gerald Laird B 59.908
Miguel Olivo
58.065
Kelly Shoppach
56.682
Rod Barajas
55.760
Gregg Zaun
55.300
Mike Redmond
53.687
John Buck
53.456
Dave Ross
50.230
Jamie Burke
47.235
Jose Molina
38.940
Jeff Mathis
38.710
Jeff Clement
36.636
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
35.714
Rob Bowen
26.728
Kevin Cash
25.806
Toby Hall
24.885
Shawn Riggans
21.659
Guillermo Quiroz
14.977
Sal Fasano
13.594
Dane Sardinha
9.677
Vance Wilson
0.230

National League Catchers
Updated: September 14
Name Type TotalScore
Russell Martin A 84.170
Chris Snyder A 82.239
Geovany Soto A 81.467
Brian McCann A 81.081
Bengie Molina A 79.151
Yadier Molina A 76.062
Ryan Doumit A 75.676
Chris Iannetta B 72.201
Brian Schneider B 68.340
Josh Bard B 67.181
Carlos Ruiz B 66.409
Jason Kendall B 66.023
Yorvit Torrealba B 65.251
Chris Coste B 59.846
Paul Lo Duca B 58.687
Javier Valentin
54.826
Brad Ausmus
54.440
Jesus Flores
52.510
John Baker
49.035
Michael Barrett
48.649
Miguel Montero
47.490
Ramon Castro
47.104
Matt Treanor
46.332
Paul Bako
41.313
Ryan Hanigan
40.347
Mike Rivera
35.135
Gary Bennett
33.784
Raul Chavez
32.046
Henry Blanco
31.467
Mike Rabelo
30.502
Jason LaRue
26.641
Humberto Quintero
25.676
Adam Melhuse
23.552
Wil Nieves
23.359
Nick Hundley
23.166
Clint Sammons
17.954
Robinson Cancel
16.795
Danny Ardoin
14.093


American League First basemen, Outfielders, and Designated Hitters
Updated September 14
Name Type Score
Magglio Ordonez A 96.364
Mark Teixeira A 95.556
David Ortiz A 95.000
Vladimir Guerrero A 91.558
Nick Markakis A 88.312
Raul Ibanez A 87.792
Josh Hamilton A 86.494
Justin Morneau A 85.556
Curtis Granderson A 83.896
Grady Sizemore A 83.636
Bobby Abreu A 83.636
Carlos Pena A 83.333
Kevin Youkilis A 81.111
B.J. Upton A 80.519
Alexis Rios A 78.701
Hideki Matsui A 78.442
Jim Thome A 78.333
Aubrey Huff A 76.667
Torii Hunter A 75.584
Jason Bay A 74.805
Ichiro Suzuki A 74.416
Xavier Nady A 73.896
Milton Bradley B 73.333
Johnny Damon B 72.468
Carl Crawford B 71.688
Jermaine Dye B 70.260
J.D. Drew B 70.130
Jose Guillen B 69.610
Garret Anderson B 69.610
Jack Cust B 69.221
Ken Griffey B 68.831
Marlon Byrd B 66.753
Nick Swisher B 65.455
Carlos Quentin B 64.935
Delmon Young B 64.416
Vernon Wells B 63.636
Paul Konerko B 63.333
Frank Thomas B 63.333
David DeJesus B 62.468
Gary Sheffield B 61.667
Jason Kubel B 61.039
Michael Cuddyer B 60.000
Sean Casey B 58.889
Jason Giambi B 57.778
Luke Scott
57.662
Travis Hafner
56.667
Ryan Garko
56.111
Cliff Floyd
56.104
Mark Teahen
56.104
Lyle Overbay
55.556
Shin-Soo Choo
52.987
Kevin Millar
52.778
David Murphy
52.338
Coco Crisp
51.688
Denard Span
50.909
Cody Ransom
46.111
Gary Matthews
45.714
Jacoby Ellsbury
45.195
Billy Butler
45.000
Ross Gload
44.444
Reggie Willits
42.987
Mike Morse
41.688
Frank Catalanotto
40.779
Marcus Thames
40.260
Travis Snider
39.870
Brad Wilkerson
39.740
Emil Brown
39.610
Chris Davis
38.889
Adam Lind
38.701
Eric Hinske
38.182
Jay Payton
37.922
Willie Bloomquist
37.922
Ben Francisco
37.792
Franklin Gutierrez
37.792
Ryan Sweeney
37.403
Gabe Gross
37.273
Mike Sweeney
35.000
Mark Kotsay
34.805
Adam Jones
34.805
Luis Montanez
33.896
David Dellucci
32.208
Carlos Gomez
31.558
Mitch Maier
31.429
Daric Barton
31.111
Kendry Morales
30.556
Aaron Cunningham
30.260
Joey Gathright
30.000
Ryan Raburn
29.870
Randy Ruiz
29.167
Matthew Joyce
28.442
Nelson Cruz
27.013
Juan Rivera
25.974
Rajai Davis
25.714
Brandon Boggs
25.065
Robb Quinlan
25.000
Jeremy Reed
21.169
Dewayne Wise
20.909
Miguel Cairo
18.889
Jeff Bailey
17.222
Jonathan Van Every
16.364
Rocco Baldelli
16.364
Jeff Larish
15.000
Oscar Salazar
15.000
Wladimir Balentien
11.688
Brian N. Anderson
11.688
Bryan LaHair
7.778
Tug Hulett
5.833
Justin Ruggiano
5.584
Brett Gardner
4.416
Fernando Perez
1.429

National League First basemen, Outfielders, and Designated Hitters
Updated September 15
Name Type Score
Matt Holliday A 97.500
Albert Pujols A 96.296
Carlos Lee A 91.875
Manny Ramirez A 90.521
Brad Hawpe A 87.917
Carlos Beltran A 86.667
Lance Berkman A 84.444
Alfonso Soriano A 84.167
Ryan Braun A 83.333
Aaron Rowand A 83.333
Adam Dunn A 80.938
Randy Winn A 79.479
Pat Burrell A 78.750
Prince Fielder A 77.778
Brian Giles A 77.708
Derrek Lee A 77.037
Andre Ethier A 76.875
Jayson Werth A 76.042
Hunter Pence A 75.833
Ryan Ludwick A 75.104
Todd Helton A 74.815
Adrian Gonzalez A 74.074
Ryan Howard A 74.074
Corey Hart A 73.542
Jeremy Hermida A 71.667
Josh Willingham B 71.458
Matt Kemp B 71.042
Nate McLouth B 70.833
Ryan Church B 70.729
Ryan Spilborghs B 68.333
Shane Victorino B 68.333
Cody Ross B 67.917
Moises Alou B 66.354
James Loney B 64.815
Jeff Francoeur B 64.167
Matt Stairs B 63.958
Luis Gonzalez B 63.750
Eric Byrnes B 63.646
Skip Schumaker B 63.333
Mike Cameron B 62.917
Chris Young B 62.500
Dmitri Young B 61.481
Conor Jackson B 60.370
Austin Kearns B 59.896
Fred Lewis B 58.958
Rick Ankiel B 57.500
Adam LaRoche B 57.037
Carlos Delgado B 57.037
Chris Duncan B 56.875
Matt Diaz B 56.563
Casey Kotchman
54.815
Jim Edmonds
54.792
Fernando Tatis
54.583
Jody Gerut
51.979
Willie Harris
51.563
Lastings Milledge
50.625
Andruw Jones
49.792
Joey Votto
49.630
Juan Pierre
49.583
Geoff Jenkins
49.583
Omar Infante
49.375
Reed Johnson
49.167
Kosuke Fukudome
48.854
Chris Dickerson
48.438
Greg Norton
47.917
Willy Taveras
47.708
Bill Hall
47.708
Daniel Murphy
46.146
Elijah Dukes
45.833
Mike Jacobs
44.444
Gabe Kapler
44.375
Darin Erstad
43.958
Josh Anderson
43.958
Norris Hopper
43.750
Juan Encarnacion
43.542
Scott Hairston
42.917
Justin Upton
41.875
Will Venable
41.563
Wilkin Castillo
40.833
Josh Phelps
40.741
Daryle Ward
39.259
Corey Patterson
39.167
Gregor Blanco
38.750
Jason Michaels
38.229
Jerry Hairston
38.021
Travis Ishikawa
37.407
Alfredo Amezaga
37.292
Seth Smith
37.188
Jay Bruce
37.083
Doug Mientkiewicz
37.037
Brian Barton
35.000
Nomar Garciaparra
34.815
So Taguchi
34.375
Delwyn Young
34.167
Endy Chavez
33.854
Rich Aurilia
33.333
Angel Pagan
33.125
Wily Mo Pena
33.125
Dave Roberts
32.708
Trot Nixon
31.667
Ryan Freel
31.250
Chad Tracy
31.111
Aaron Boone
31.111
Brandon Moss
30.000
Chase Headley
29.479
Pablo Sandoval
29.259
Nyjer Morgan
28.125
Tony Clark
26.667
Nick Johnson
24.444
Scott Podsednik
24.375
Marlon Anderson
24.063
Michael Bourn
23.333
Jeff Salazar
23.333
Ryan Langerhans
23.021
Andy Phillips
21.481
Nick Evans
18.229
Joe Mather
17.604
Reggie Abercrombie
13.646
Brandon Jones
13.229
Jolbert Cabrera
13.125
Alejandro De Aza
7.083
Mark Sweeney
5.185
Nick Stavinoha
2.500
Brett Carroll
2.292
Laynce Nix
0.833

American League Second basemen, Third basemen, and Shortstops
Updated September 16
Name Type Score
Alex Rodriguez A 94.805
Michael Young A 88.571
Mike Lowell A 85.714
Orlando Cabrera A 84.571
Derek Jeter A 84.571
Placido Polanco A 82.993
Jhonny Peralta A 82.857
Dustin Pedroia A 82.653
Brian Roberts A 82.313
Edgar Renteria A 82.286
Ian Kinsler A 78.231
Melvin Mora A 76.623
Miguel Cabrera A 75.974
Adrian Beltre A 73.377
Carlos Guillen B 70.857
Robinson Cano B 70.748
Chone Figgins B 65.584
Mark Ellis B 64.626
Scott Rolen B 62.987
Alex Gordon B 62.987
Akinori Iwamura B 61.905
Brendan Harris B 61.143
Jose Lopez B 60.884
Mark Grudzielanek B 60.204
Aaron Hill B 59.864
Marco Scutaro B 58.857
Evan Longoria B 58.442
Juan Uribe B 58.286
Jose Bautista
57.792
Howie Kendrick
55.782
Yuniesky Betancourt
54.286
Bobby Crosby
54.286
Mike Aviles
53.714
Maicer Izturis
53.401
Jason Bartlett
53.143
Julio Lugo
52.286
Brandon Inge
51.299
Jed Lowrie
45.143
Eric Chavez
44.156
Ramon Vazquez
43.831
Asdrubal Cabrera
43.537
Jack Hannahan
41.558
Alexei Ramirez
38.776
Joe Crede
38.312
Erick Aybar
37.429
Hank Blalock
37.013
Nick Punto
37.013
John McDonald
36.571
Ramon Santiago
36.571
Joe Inglett
34.694
Brian Buscher
33.766
Alex Cora
33.714
Jamey Carroll
33.333
Tony Pena
33.143
Adam Everett
31.714
Esteban German
31.293
Wilson Betemit
29.870
Alberto Callaspo
28.912
Willy Aybar
27.273
Matt Tolbert
26.857
Alexi Casilla
25.850
Alex Cintron
25.714
Cliff Pennington
23.052
Josh Barfield
22.449
Juan Castro
22.286
Ben Zobrist
21.429
Joaquin Arias
16.667
Andy Marte
15.584
Brandon Wood
12.987
Sean Rodriguez
10.884
Jason Smith
9.714


National League Second basemen, Third basemen, and Shortstops
Updated September 20

Name Type Score
Chase Utley A 92.857
David Wright A 90.286
Chipper Jones A 89.714
Jimmy Rollins A 86.264
Troy Tulowitzki A 83.516
Aramis Ramirez A 82.857
Jose Reyes A 82.418
Hanley Ramirez A 81.319
Garrett Atkins A 80.000
Brandon Phillips A 79.911
Orlando Hudson A 79.464
Troy Glaus A 78.857
Dan Uggla A 75.000
Freddy Sanchez A 75.000
Miguel Tejada A 74.725
Ryan Zimmerman A 73.143
Mark DeRosa A 71.875
Ron Belliard B 71.429
Kelly Johnson B 70.982
Jeff Kent B 69.643
J.J. Hardy B 69.231
Ty Wigginton B 68.000
Casey Blake B 68.000
Jack Wilson B 67.582
Khalil Greene B 66.484
Luis Castillo B 65.625
Yunel Escobar B 62.637
Kazuo Matsui B 62.500
Mark Loretta B 61.384
Edwin Encarnacion B 60.571
Rickie Weeks B 59.821
Cristian Guzman B 59.615
Rafael Furcal B 59.615
Pedro Feliz B 59.429
Stephen Drew
59.341
Ryan Theriot
57.967
Kevin Kouzmanoff
57.714
Jeff Keppinger
57.692
Aaron Miles
57.366
Mike Fontenot
57.143
Ray Durham
56.696
Omar Vizquel
53.297
Damion Easley
52.679
Mark Reynolds
52.000
Felipe Lopez
51.786
David Eckstein
48.901
Greg Dobbs
48.857
Jorge Cantu
45.714
Blake DeWitt
43.429
Geoff Blum
43.143
Anderson Hernandez
42.857
Alex Gonzalez
39.560
Augie Ojeda
39.509
Clint Barmes
37.946
Cesar Izturis
37.912
Russell Branyan
37.714
Martin Prado
37.500
Adam Kennedy
36.607
Jeff Baker
36.607
Craig Counsell
35.429
Chris Gomez
35.429
Chris Burke
34.375
Ian Stewart
34.286
Kevin Frandsen
33.929
Luis Rodriguez
33.516
Ruben Gotay
33.036
Ronny Cedeno
33.036
Emmanuel Burriss
31.868
Wes Helms
30.857
Jose Castillo
29.143
Omar Quintanilla
26.786
Eric Bruntlett
26.374
Angel Berroa
24.725
Chin-lung Hu
24.176
Alberto Gonzalez
21.978
Tony Abreu
21.714
Andy LaRoche
20.000
Luis Rivas
15.659
Edgar Gonzalez
14.732
Ivan Ochoa
14.011
Eugenio Velez
13.616
Pete Orr
13.429
Emilio Bonifacio
9.821
Sean Kazmar
9.615
David Newhan
8.482
Ryan Rohlinger
0.286


American League Starting Pitchers
Updated: September 2
Name Type TotalScore
Roy Halladay A 95.6928839
John Lackey A 94.85018727
Scott Kazmir A 90.917603
Felix Hernandez A 88.67041199
A.J. Burnett A 87.64044944
Daisuke Matsuzaka A 87.07865169
Fausto Carmona A 84.73782772
Josh Beckett A 84.64419476
James Shields A 84.45692884
Erik Bedard A 83.70786517
Andy Pettitte A 83.70786517
Chien-Ming Wang A 81.92883895
Javier Vazquez A 81.08614232
Justin Verlander A 80.14981273
Cliff Lee A 76.68539326
Gil Meche A 75.93632959
Mike Mussina A 73.22097378
Jon Lester A 73.03370787
Kevin Millwood B 72.84644195
Jered Weaver B 72.65917603
Tim Wakefield B 71.53558052
Mark Buehrle B 70.78651685
Jeremy Guthrie B 70.6928839
Kelvim Escobar B 69.56928839
Zack Greinke B 68.44569288
Dustin McGowan B 67.13483146
Ervin Santana B 66.29213483
Scott Baker B 65.35580524
Jon Garland B 65.35580524
Paul Byrd B 65.26217228
Daniel Cabrera B 63.67041199
Joe Saunders B 62.17228464
Vicente Padilla B 61.70411985
Jose Contreras B 61.04868914
Jeremy Bonderman B 59.92509363
Matt Garza B 59.36329588
Miguel Batista
59.26966292
Justin Duchscherer
57.20973783
Nate Robertson
57.20973783
Glen Perkins
57.02247191
Edwin Jackson
56.55430712
Carlos Silva
56.17977528
John Danks
55.80524345
Kevin Slowey
55.05617978
Gavin Floyd
54.86891386
Brian Bannister
54.86891386
Andy Sonnanstine
54.11985019
Jarrod Washburn
53.74531835
Armando Galarraga
53.55805243
Jesse Litsch
50.18726592
Curt Schilling
47.09737828
Kason Gabbard
46.8164794
Kenny Rogers
46.34831461
Boof Bonser
45.13108614
Jake Westbrook
43.07116105
Brian Burres
39.51310861
Nick Blackburn
39.3258427
Kip Wells
38.76404494
Francisco Liriano
38.57677903
Kyle Davies
36.42322097
Dana Eveland
36.32958801
Bartolo Colon
35.58052434
Carl Pavano
34.26966292
Darrell Rasner
32.20973783
Kameron Loe
31.17977528
Greg Smith
29.7752809
Brandon McCarthy
29.21348315
Anthony Reyes
28.27715356
Sidney Ponson
28.1835206
Matt Harrison
27.34082397
Chris Waters
25
Luke Hochevar
23.78277154
Adam Loewen
23.78277154
Dallas Braden
23.4082397
Sean Gallagher
22.19101124
Jason Jennings
21.62921348
R.A. Dickey
19.85018727
Jeremy Sowers
18.6329588
Troy Patton
18.16479401
Luis Mendoza
17.32209738
Clayton Richard
14.04494382
David Purcey
13.57677903
Eric Hurley
12.7340824
Ryan Feierabend
10.86142322
Gio Gonzalez
9.082397004
Zach Jackson
6.647940075
David Pauley
2.621722846
Luke Hudson
2.059925094
Andrew Brackman
1.779026217
Humberto Sanchez
1.779026217

National League Starting Pitchers
Updated September 7
C.C. Sabathia A 97.70408163
Brandon Webb A 95.66326531
Jake Peavy A 93.28231293
Cole Hamels A 91.66666667
Danny Haren A 89.3707483
Roy Oswalt A 88.35034014
Tim Hudson A 87.41496599
Carlos Zambrano A 86.64965986
Johan Santana A 86.47959184
Ted Lilly A 82.4829932
Ben Sheets A 82.4829932
Tim Lincecum A 78.7414966
Adam Wainwright A 77.55102041
Aaron Harang A 77.21088435
John Maine A 77.04081633
Oliver Perez A 76.53061224
Aaron Cook A 75.76530612
Derek Lowe A 73.80952381
Jeff Francis A 73.38435374
Brad Penny B 72.61904762
John Smoltz B 72.27891156
Chad Billingsley B 69.72789116
Kyle Lohse B 69.64285714
Bronson Arroyo B 69.04761905
Jamie Moyer B 68.28231293
Jeff Suppan B 67.09183673
Joe Blanton B 65.81632653
Matt Cain B 65.56122449
Randy Wolf B 65.30612245
Doug Davis B 64.79591837
Greg Maddux B 64.20068027
Rich Harden B 63.43537415
Chris Young B 63.0952381
Braden Looper B 62.75510204
Chad Gaudin B 61.56462585
Edinson Volquez B 60.79931973
Todd Wellemeyer B 59.86394558
Wandy Rodriguez B 59.69387755
Ricky Nolasco B 59.3537415
Jason Marquis
59.18367347
Randy Johnson
58.92857143
Ian Snell
57.90816327
David Bush
56.29251701
Paul Maholm
55.6122449
Tom Glavine
54.84693878
Barry Zito
53.1462585
Livan Hernandez
53.06122449
Kyle Kendrick
52.97619048
Scott Olsen
52.04081633
Noah Lowry
51.10544218
Tom Gorzelanny
51.02040816
Jair Jurrjens
50.85034014
Orlando Hernandez
50
Yovani Gallardo
48.97959184
Odalis Perez
47.44897959
Ubaldo Jimenez
46.17346939
Joel Pineiro
46.08843537
Manny Parra
45.74829932
Jorge De La Rosa
44.21768707
Tim Redding
43.28231293
Mike Pelfrey
43.1122449
Pedro Martinez
40.81632653
Brandon Backe
39.11564626
Shawn Estes
38.60544218
Zach Duke
38.26530612
Jay Bergmann
38.26530612
Josh Fogg
38.18027211
Jorge Campillo
36.98979592
Chris Volstad
35.79931973
Jonathan Sanchez
35.37414966
John Lannan
35.20408163
Josh Johnson
34.69387755
Cha Seung Baek
34.3537415
Hiroki Kuroda
34.18367347
Andrew Miller
33.84353741
Josh Geer
33.16326531
Shawn Hill
32.22789116
Yusmeiro Petit
29.50680272
Chris Capuano
28.06122449
Sergio Mitre
27.97619048
Johnny Cueto
26.95578231
Chad Reineke
24.06462585
Anibal Sanchez
23.63945578
Felipe Paulino
22.10884354
Nelson Figueroa
22.10884354
Mike Hampton
19.72789116
Chris Carpenter
19.21768707
Jo-Jo Reyes
18.96258503
Collin Balester
17.5170068
Phil Dumatrait
15.73129252
Burke Badenhop
15.39115646
Jeff Karstens
13.86054422
Jason Schmidt
9.523809524
Mark Mulder
4.591836735
Tim Stauffer
3.316326531
Dirk Hayhurst
3.231292517
Jason Vargas
3.146258503
Scott Mathieson
1.870748299
Mark Prior
1.870748299

American League Relievers
Updated September 8
Name Type TotalScore
J.J. Putz A 90.726
Francisco Rodriguez A 88.622
Joe Nathan A 87.807
Jonathan Papelbon A 83.970
Ron Mahay A 83.496
Huston Street A 83.319
Joakim Soria A 82.874
Rafael Betancourt A 82.637
Mariano Rivera A 81.748
Scott Downs A 79.674
Joaquin Benoit A 79.319
Bobby Jenks A 78.607
Hideki Okajima A 77.926
Damaso Marte A 77.867
Scot Shields A 77.393
Pat Neshek A 77.244
George Sherrill A 75.674
Troy Percival A 74.874
Octavio Dotel A 74.874
Rafael Perez A 72.607
Matt Guerrier A 72.326
C.J. Wilson A 72.089
Matt Thornton A 71.585
Dan Wheeler A 69.630
Darren Oliver A 69.156
Scott Linebrink B 68.800
Zach Miner B 67.081
Jamey Wright B 66.607
Sean Green B 66.222
Brian Bruney B 65.867
Jeremy Accardo B 64.770
Jesse Carlson B 63.822
Joey Devine B 63.615
Ryan Rowland-Smith B 63.081
Dennys Reyes B 62.637
Bobby Seay B 61.926
Alan Embree B 61.748
Javier Lopez B 61.659
Santiago Casilla B 61.156
Grant Balfour B 60.326
J.P. Howell B 60.148
Fernando Rodney B 60.119
Jose Arredondo B 59.911
Mike Timlin B 59.763
Frank Francisco B 58.800
Chad Bradford B 58.741
Brad Ziegler B 58.459
Justin Speier B 58.104
Jose Veras B 57.896
Ramon Ramirez B 57.748
Kyle Farnsworth
57.719
Trever Miller
57.007
Jamie Walker
56.889
Casey Janssen
55.956
Manny Delcarmen
55.911
Andrew Brown
55.674
Brian Tallet
55.556
Dennis Sarfate
55.289
Matt Albers
54.311
Edwar Ramirez
54.281
Gary Glover
54.193
Leo Nunez
53.778
Todd Jones
53.630
Justin Masterson
51.244
Jason Frasor
50.548
B.J. Ryan
50.163
Roy Corcoran
49.689
Chris Ray
49.067
Jason Hammel
47.467
Jesse Crain
47.185
David Aardsma
47.022
Jimmy Gobble
45.867
Scott Feldman
45.600
Juan Rincon
45.333
Robinson Tejeda
45.333
Jensen Lewis
45.037
Eddie Guardado
45.007
Horacio Ramirez
44.474
D.J. Carrasco
44.207
Joel Peralta
44.207
Jim Johnson
43.881
Aquilino Lopez
43.644
Joel Zumaya
43.141
Josh Rupe
42.341
Lance Cormier
41.600
Fernando Cabrera
39.644
Masahide Kobayashi
37.926
Craig Breslow
37.274
Casey Fossum
37.096
Brendan Donnelly
37.067
Dan Giese
36.415
Jonathan Albaladejo
36.178
Brandon League
35.556
John Parrish
35.348
Dustin Nippert
34.341
Alberto Castillo
34.044
Brandon Duckworth
32.148
Juan Salas
31.852
John Rheinecker
31.837
Adam Russell
31.348
Keith Foulke
30.993
Shawn Camp
30.830
Randy Messenger
29.956
Alfredo Aceves
29.807
R.A. Dickey
28.711
Jerry Blevins
28.326
A.J. Murray
27.763
Ryan Braun
26.963
Danys Baez
26.385
Rocky Cherry
25.215
Lance Broadway
24.948
Shane Loux
24.919
John Bale
24.326
Edward Mujica
23.052
Chris Britton
20.889
James Hoey
20.770
Cesar Jimenez
20.089
Kirk Saarloos
18.430
Randor Bierd
17.511
Warner Madrigal
11.067
Jake Woods
10.770
Jae Kuk Ryu
10.104
Andrew Sisco
5.067
Jeff Fulchino
3.319
Chad Orvella
2.548
David Pauley
2.044

National League Relievers
Updated: September 10
Name Type TotalScore
Brad Lidge A 87.706
Carlos Marmol A 86.471
Heath Bell A 85.983
Takashi Saito A 83.719
Ryan Dempster A 82.124
Russ Springer A 82.099
Juan Cruz A 79.295
Jonathan Broxton A 78.472
Jose Valverde A 77.469
Billy Wagner A 76.492
Jon Rauch A 75.874
Brian Fuentes A 75.874
Jared Burton A 75.180
Manuel Corpas A 74.666
Matt Capps A 74.511
Doug Brocail A 73.971
Ryan Madson A 73.354
Francisco Cordero A 72.994
Kevin Gregg A 72.737
Chad Qualls A 72.737
Tony Pena A 71.322
J.C. Romero A 71.116
Peter Moylan A 70.833
Kerry Wood A 70.087
Rafael Soriano A 69.470
Luis Vizcaino A 69.419
Aaron Heilman A 69.136
Saul Rivera A 67.978
John Grabow A 67.773
Jesus Colome B 67.721
Taylor Buchholz B 67.670
Brian Shouse B 67.593
Carlos Villanueva B 67.413
Brett Myers B 67.181
Jason Isringhausen B 66.795
Salomon Torres B 66.281
Joe Beimel B 65.484
Chad Durbin B 64.969
Jeremy Affeldt B 64.943
Hong-Chih Kuo B 64.789
Ryan Franklin B 64.223
Scott Proctor B 64.146
Jason Grilli B 63.837
Pedro Feliciano B 63.837
Bobby Howry B 63.092
Renyel Pinto B 61.651
Rudy Seanez B 61.445
Dave Weathers B 60.854
Joel Hanrahan B 60.725
Tim Byrdak B 60.108
Trevor Hoffman B 59.851
Chris Sampson B 59.234
Joe Smith B 59.105
Chad Cordero B 58.282
Joe Nelson B 57.819
Brandon Lyon B 57.510
Eric Gagne B 57.073
Brian Wilson B 56.764
Arthur Rhodes
56.636
Geoff Geary
56.559
Brian Moehler
56.507
Buddy Carlyle
56.353
Tyler Yates
56.301
Brad Thompson
56.121
Logan Kensing
55.787
Matt Lindstrom
55.504
Kevin Correia
54.527
Luis Ayala
53.498
Mike Gonzalez
53.292
Will Ohman
52.675
Steven Shell
52.469
LaTroy Hawkins
52.263
Matt Herges
52.058
Mark Hendrickson
51.955
Cory Wade
51.723
Henry Owens
51.723
David Riske
50.926
Guillermo Mota
50.926
Edgar Gonzalez
50.874
Chris Perez
50.772
Cla Meredith
50.669
Scott Eyre
49.666
Duaner Sanchez
49.614
Manny Acosta
49.588
Tom Gordon
49.537
Clay Condrey
48.174
Jack Taschner
47.377
Jeff Samardzija
47.377
Bill Bray
47.119
Lee Gardner
46.939
Doug Waechter
46.811
Mike Adams
45.499
Julian Tavarez
45.370
Merkin Valdez
45.242
Ambiorix Burgos
44.907
Justin Hampson
44.522
Brett Tomko
44.264
Jeff Bennett
43.570
Wesley Wright
43.133
Chan Ho Park
43.133
Scott Schoeneweis
43.107
Tyler Walker
42.541
Sergio Romo
40.226
Jon Lieber
40.072
Seth McClung
38.632
Tyler Johnson
38.066
Ron Villone
37.629
Kent Mercker
37.269
Alex Hinshaw
36.523
Matt Wise
34.851
Nick Masset
34.799
Denny Bautista
34.234
Ryan Speier
34.182
Keiichi Yabu
33.771
Tony Armas
33.719
Max Scherzer
31.044
Glendon Rusch
30.453
Kyle McClellan
29.630
Mike Lincoln
27.521
Blaine Boyer
27.032
Charlie Manning
25.489
Neal Cotts
25.154
Sean Burnett
24.666
Billy Sadler
24.331
Mike Zagurski
24.331
Jason Johnson
23.637
Angel Guzman
23.585
Brian Stokes
23.251
Ramon Troncoso
22.788
Clay Hensley
22.119
Garrett Mock
21.991
Jason Davis
19.470
Chad Fox
17.798
Brian Falkenborg
17.361
Josh Kinney
16.152
Elmer Dessens
14.583
Gary Majewski
14.352
Scott Elbert
13.709
Osiris Matos
11.883
Harvey Garcia
10.802
Francisco Rosario
10.674
Vladimir Nunez
6.867
Marco Estrada
3.421
Yhency Brazoban
2.726
Jesse Chavez
2.341

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Still Trying to Figure Out Elias Injury Adjustment

I found an old article describing the 1996-1997 rankings.

Ken Griffey Jr., who spent 24 days and 20 games on the disabled list between the two seasons, got his home runs bumped from 105 to 112.41 and his RBI's from 287 to 307.26. In fractional form, these value are being multiplied by 91/85.

Bernie Williams, who spent 45 days and 42 games on the disabled list, was bumped from 50 to 58.33 homeruns and from 202 to 235.67 homeruns. Again, in fractional form, this is 7/6.

Can anybody figure out how they are arriving at these numbers? Also, if you can find more exact numbers to help figure this out, plase forward those along.

Monday, August 18, 2008

More Elias Lunacy

I just plugged the numbers for the AL thirdbasemen. First off, Miguel Cabrera counts as a 3B, but that's not the crazy part. Melvin Mora currently ranks ahead of him.

Really Quick Elias Update

Previously I had stated that all players ending the season on the active roster or disabled list get ranked. This was incorrect.

Based on last year's rankings, it looks like you must be on an active roster or disabled list on August 31 in order to be counted in the rankings. Anybody called up or signed after August 31 will not be in the rankings. For those looking to possibly track the formula throughout September can lock the rosters in on August 31.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Funny Thing about Gary Glover

Back when i was going to write about most improved bullpens, I had a post half written on the 2007 Rays disaster of a bullpen, and came to the conclusion that the way in which they were able to improve on their bullpen was addition by subtraction. Gary Glover was one of the scrubs subtracted.

The organization is making it clear it is not in their strategic interests to win games right now. Frankly, it makes sense.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Links

I hadn't seen this reported anywhere, but it looks like Carlos Guillen's back may be worse than is being reported. From the Disabled List Informer:

Carlos Guillen has a pinched nerve (likely from a disc herniation) in his lower back that is causing him low back pain, as well as right leg and foot pain. Though it is reported that he is expected to be out for the next 2-3 days, the fact that he has pain that extends below the knee, in conjunction with back pain and leg weakness, indicates that this is likely a more serious disc herniation that will take far longer to recover from. The leg weakness is the key symptom here, and in fact, this seems to be a situation more serious than that of Rafael Furcal. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Expect Guillen to be on the DL within the next couple of days.

Yikes. Furcal's injury was pretty serious, so serious that there are serious doubts that he will be able to be an effective player again... Either that or I am working to drive down his free agent value this offseason.


Whitecaps reliever Andrew Hess has been blogging all year. Recently, he blogged about an Olympian he knows pretty well. You may have heard of him.


There were no late signings for the Tigers yesterday. Meanwhile, two first rounders did not sign. Aaron Crow (Washington) and Gerrit Cole (Yankees) are both pitchers whose names were linked to the Tigers this spring, and both will be reporting to school: Missouri and UCLA respectively. Have no fear about the Tigers lack of activity yesterday. All of the early round picks were locked up early.


Really quick, I want to issue a quick correction to yesterday's numbers crunch. Each of the forces listed should be half of what I listed, as I showed the total force in both knees. Assuming balance and symmetry, just cut it in half and you have a conservative estimate of the meniscus and quadriceps force. Bear in mind that any general biomechanic calculation has a lot of error involved, because people are not proportional.

It's time


Friday, August 15, 2008

Skelton Again

Once again, much has been made about James Skelton's 165-pound frame. I wanted to take a look at this from a physics perspective. Let's take a quick look at the physics of a crouching catcher. Below is the ugliest free body diagram you will ever see, but it is of a crouching catcher from his knees up. It is a very simple model, but one that should show the relationship between the catcher's weight, height, and knee reactions.
Acting downward is the weight (W) of everything from his knees up, including equipment. This acts at the center of mass of everything, I've got this acting roughly at the anterior side of the top of the torso. It should be further to the right, but Microsoft Word made it difficult to put things in the right place. We'll say this value is 85% of the player's weight plus 15 pounds of padding. For Skelton, this is 155.3 pounds. For a player like Dusty Ryan (6'4", 220), this will be 202.o pounds.
The reaction force at the knee (R) is the compressive support provided by bone contact. This is typically the force that will be acting on the meniscus of the knee, which essentially internal padding within the knee joint.
The Quadriceps (Q) are acting in tension to create a moment balance for the body. If not for the quadriceps, the knee reaction and weight would cause the body to move counterclockwise. Note that if the center of mass is to the right of the knee, the hamstrings would provide the rotational support. The force of the quadriceps acts through the patellar tendon.
The distance from the center of mass to the knee (a) is going to be a function of the catcher's height and his crouching mechanics. The taller a catcher or the less his torso bends, the higher the value a will be. For now, we will assume this to be 1/10 of the player's height. For Skelton, 7.1 inches, while Ryan's value will be 7.6 inches.
The distance (b) is the distance from the center of the knee to the patellar tendon. The mechanics of the knee allow this distance to increase when needed. While this value varies significantly, we'll say it is 2 inches.

By doing a force/moment balance, you can find that R will be equal to W*(a+b)/b, and Q is equal to W*a/b.

For James Skelton, the force at his meniscus is 714.38 pounds. For Dusty Ryan, the force at his meniscus is 969.6 pounds. As far as the quadriceps, James Skelton's quads will need to impart 559.6 pounds of force; Dusty Ryan's quads will need 767.6 pounds.

While there is going to significant error in these calculations, the simple fact is that heavier and taller catchers will put more stress on their knee while crouching. This has already been shown in Dusty Ryan's case, as he missed much of last season with a torn meniscus.

The scouts are wrong about James Skelton. His lack of bulk does not portend durability problems. The people who see him as skinny are confusing the confusing bulk with strength. It is entirely possible that Skelton's leg strength could prevent him from being durable, but let's keep strength and bulk separate, because they are.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Regarding James Skelton


Out of curiosity, I went diving through my one box of baseball cards that isn't stashed away in storage to check on the weights of some catchers in their early years. One of the knocks on James Skelton that I have always felt was unfair was that he will never be able to play catcher in the Major Leagues because he is too skinny, at 5'11"-165 pounds.

Well, in 1992, Ivan Rodriguez (2152 career games caught) was listed at 5'9"-165. (The card shown is from 1991... My scanner is also in storage, so I image searched some Pudge rookie cards)


In 1994, Jason Kendall (1734 games caught) was listed at 6'0"-170.


James Skelton may have problems hitting for power, and he may have durability concerns (although I feel confirmation bias plays a large role in those reports), but I don't think it is fair to say he is too skinny to be a major league catcher.

Beltran and Zumaya

Obviously the big news yesterday was Joel Zumaya going onto the disabled list and Francis Beltran being called up to take his place. On the surface, Beltran was an odd choice. With all the love Casey Fien has been getting in Toledo, he would have seemingly been the top choice. Once you factor in the fact that Todd Jones is returning Friday and someone would need to go, it makes sense to go with Francis Beltran. But what if he was the more deserving pitcher?

Beltran has not allowed a run since July 6. In that time, he has walked 2, struck out 15, and allowed just three hits in 9.1 scoreless innings. Beltran has been quietly dominant since Toledo's all star break. During the bullpen series, I have brought up the strategy in buying low on relievers recovering from injuries. Beltran fits this description, as last year was his first full season of pitching since 2005 Tommy John surgery. I would not be opposed to Beltran staying in the bullpen for the duration of the season to see if he is worth keeping around. If you are worried about the roster crunch when Todd Jones returns, I would suggest that Freddy Dolsi can be sacraficed for a couple of weeks.

And now that gets us to Zumaya. Luckily, I haven't been able to watch or listen to the games this week, saving me from sitting through his dreadful outing on Tuesday. But the question I have: WHY WAS HE EVEN PITCHING? The guy is coming off of shoulder surgery, had lingering shoulder problems over the past few weeks, and hadn't been pitching particularly well. You would think that would have set off some red flags. Once again, something appears to be broken when it comes to the Tigers' handling of injuries. I don't know if the blame falls at Jim Leyland's feet, if Dave Dombrowski is to blame, if Kevin Rand is at fault, or if the team doctors have continually screwed up, but there is a long list of Tigers's players dating back to last summer who have played through minor injuries only to have more severe problems result. As much as everybody wants to fix the bullpen and the pitching staff, I think an overhaul in the team's handling of injuries could go a long way in improving the team.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 6

Following the pattern, we'll now take a look at different ways to replicate the 2006 Twins model for a bullpen. Aside from Eyre, there were a ton of common threads between the players. Most had very good peripherals coming into the season, which made them less dependent on their defense. Nathan and Rincon were starters before moving to the pen. The same is true of Guerrier, who was a AAA starter before being claimed off waivers. Just as we spent much of the post-Indians post on finding the next Bobby Howry, how about the next Joe Nathan? Specifically, are there any players in their first year of relieving putting up very good strikeout and walk numbers? These would be players who are currently not in the closers role for their team, as they could still come at a discount. Also, because the Twins were able to take advantage of the Giants panicking, I'll list any 2009 weaknesses for the teams these guys are playing for.

J.P. Howell, 25, Tampa Bay
I don't think Howell would be available, as he has gotten some high leverage innings. Throw in the fact that he's cheap, and that the Rays seem to be run by bright people, Howell would probably cost a pretty penny. The Rays really don't have any weaknesses for next year's team. Any holes they have can be filled internally. This team will be on top for a while, folks.

Edwar Ramirez, 27, New York Yankees
Okay, not a starter before this year, but his strikeout and walk numbers are out of this world. For 2009, the Yankees could use a catcher, firstbaseman, centerfielder, or starting pitcher. I would have rather gotten Ramirez for Rodriguez. Unfortunately, the Tigers don't appear to be capable of looking past velocity, a flaw that may be the root cause of these bullpen problems

Robinson Tejeda, 26, Kansas City
It's easy to put up horrible numbers with the Rangers. Since joining Kansas City's bullpen, Tejeda has been pretty solid with 24 K's, 8 BB in 22 innings. The Royals have a potential hole at 2B, 1B, and could use another starting pitcher or two.

Jose Arredondo, 24, Los Angeles Angels
K-Rod's heir apparent. Can't be had.

Chad Durbin, 30, Philadelphia
We've been down this path, and probably won't go back down it.

Doug Waechter, 27, Florida
Always low on both strikeouts and walks, Waechter needed a good defense behind him as a starter. Now as a reliever, the K rate is more respectable and could be a sleeper next year. That said, he was placed on the disabled list with shoulder problems today. The Marlins will want cheap players. Their needs will be dependant on where they decide to cut costs. Frankly, Jeremy Hermida is my target on the Marlins' roster.

Buddy Carlyle, 30, Atlanta
A journeyman who moved to the bullpen this year, Carlyle now has 40 K's in 39 innings, but the walks (16) are a bit high for my taste. He's probably a bit old to be the next Nathan, but could be worth a shot as a sleeper. The Braves could use help in left field and in the rotation.

Joel Hanrahan, 26, Washington
A starter until this year and a top Dodgers prospect in the early part of this decade, Hanrahan has 75 K's in 65 innings this year, enough to earn some Nathan comparisons. He has been closing since the trade of Jon Rauch, and could stay in that role in the future. In short, I'm doubting he can be had at a discount. The Nats seem to be young and injured all over the place, and their specific needs will be a function of injury recoveries.

Hong-Chih Kuo, 27, Los Angeles Dodgers
In his first full season in relief, Kuo has finally stayed healthy. The lefty has been a huge cog in the Dodgers bullpen that I almost wrote about the other day. In 66.7 IP, he's only walked 15 guys while striking out a whopping 78 with only two players taking him out of the park. No wonder he's had a 1.76 ERA so far. I doubt he can be had as a throw in, and the Dodgers may be due for another overpaid outfielder in a few months. Sheffield for Kuo and Kershaw, here we go.

Taylor Buchholz, 26, Colorado Rockies
Struggled for years as a back of the rotation guy, Buchholz has come into his own as a reliever the past two years with the Rockies. Like the other guys, the K's are up and the BB's are down. The Rockies' most glaring hole appears to be at second base.

There are some guys who fit the Joe Nathan 2003 mold. A struggling starting pitcher having a breakout season in reliever with lots of strikeouts and few walks. What about Tigers who fit the A.J. Pierzynski mold? That is, who are some players due for a decline with a hot prospect right on their tail?

?

Oh well. No studs banging down the door, and a lot of the players due for decline have already done so.

The Twins also did a lot of promoting from within. Who are some players in the Tigers' minor league system with low walk rates and high strikeout rates within range of the Big Leagues (Lakeland and above)?

Casey Fien
Chris Lambert
Guillermo Moscoso
Robert Weinhardt

Without going into individual profiles on those guys, they all are striking out a lot of players, walking few, and generally keeping home runs off the board. If you want to look within the systems for possibilities in next year's bullpen, look at those four guys.

As far as this year's draft is concerned, I'm not convinced we will see dramatic results from the guys taken this year. I know Weinhardt is listed above, but it may take until 2010-11 to see a massive influx of players taken this year in the bullpen. Note how the two Twins relievers in 2006 were taken in the 2002 draft, a four year's difference. It took Crain two years and Neshek four.

One more thing to note about the two bullpens covered so far: they weren't built in a day. The 2005 Indians were mostly accumulated before the 2004 season. All of the players in the Twins' bullpen, sans Dennys Reyes, were in the system more than two years prior to the start of the 2006 season. As we look at more bullpens, we'll find out if a quick fix is possible.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Garcia Signs, Sheffield on Waivers, etc.

Freddy Garcia has signed with the Tigers to a minor league deal. This has been long rumored, and appears to be risk free. A minor league deal, the only risk comes if Garcia gets playing time he doesn't deserve. This goes right in line with getting guys on the rebound, meaning this deal may pay off next season if he recovers fully at that point. My crazy idea would be to break him in down in the bullpen until his endurance is built up.

ESPNews says Gary Sheffield was placed on waivers. Big deal. Everybody is placed on waivers in August.

Bonine Out

For those curious about pitching depth, Eddie Bonine was removed from his last start with a shoulder strain. This is the type of thing that could be very serious, and I have a hard time seeing him back with the team this year.

In a related move, it looks like Dontrelle Willis will be taking his rotation spot in Toledo. After some encouragingly low walk numbers in his last few starts with the Flying Tigers, Willis is certainly one worth watching, as he could be the Tigers' ace in the hole.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Sheffield to Tampa?

ESPNews and DRaysBay are reporting Gary Sheffield might be headed to Tampa Bay. Could this mean Tampa Bay claimed him off waivers? If so, would the Tigers let them claim him for nothing? Would the Tigers want a player in return? Would the Rays want the Tigers to pick up some of his salary? Given that, if claimed, the Tigers could dump him off on the Rays and stick them with the salary. The Tigers have some bargaining power here when it comes to players.

This could all be moot if he wasn't claimed though.

Update: Sheffield is in the lineup tonight, so the rumors are still just that: rumors.

How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 5

Last time I said we would cover the 2008 Dodgers bullpen. After looking it over, i want to throw out 2008 bullpens for the time being. Since the season hasn't ended, and bullpens haven't gone through the dog days of August, it looked like 2008 bullpens were favored in the analysis. Instead, we'll go to the third best bullpen: the 2006 Minnesota Twins.

The analysis of the opening day roster to evaluate strategy may be flawed when dealing with the Twins of recent years. This is a team who has made a habit of wasting roster spots on worthless veterans early on, only to surge behind a younger core later in the season. In short, the opening day roster for the Twins looks very different than it does later on in the season. Let's look at the opening day bullpen for the 2006 version of the Twins.

Joe Nathan, 31, RHP
Salary: $3,750,000
Options?: No
2005 Statistics: 70 IP, 2.70 ERA, 22 BB, 94 K, 5 HR
Signed: Acquired from San Francisco with Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski, November 14, 2003

For as overrated as the closer role has become, the value of a dominant shut down closer cannot be overstated. Having a guy like Nathan in the back end of the pen for several years is one of the keys to long term bullpen success. How were they able to get him in this deal? People often forget about Joe Nathan's time with the Giants. Joining the rotation in his first season, Nathan was purely average in 1999 at age 24. He came back the next season, putting up mediocre numbers in the back of San Francisco's rotation amidst shoulder problems. After the 2000 season, Nathan had shoulder surgery followed by weak minor league seasons in 2001 and 2002. Out of options in 2003, he finally moved to relief and put up a promising season for the Giants striking out 83 with a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings. Why the Giants were willing to package him with two prospects in a panic move after the season still makes no sense.

In summary, the Twins were able to acquire Nathan as part of a package in a trade with a dimwitted general manager. They were also able to use the emergence of Joe Mauer to sell high on A.J. Pierzynski before he got expensive. Finally, they noticed the breakout season Joe Nathan had in his first year as a relief pitcher. The peripherals of his 2003 season, healed shoulder, and new role all suggest that Nathan was for real.

Juan Rincon, 27, RHP
Salary: $900,000
Options: No
2005 Statistics: 77 IP, 2.45 ERA, 30 BB, 84 K, 2 HR
Signed: Undrafted Free Agent, 1996

Rincon is another player with very good numbers the year before. He had two primary question marks coming into the season: minor elbow surgery after the 2005 season may have caused problems, and a steroid suspension in 2005 may suggest that he may not have been able to keep up his previous success. Like Nathan, Rincon was a starter in the minors before being moved to the pen upon his promotion to the Major Leagues.

Jesse Crain, 24, RHP
Salary: $361,000
Options: Yes
2005 Statistics: 79.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 29 BB, 25 K, 6 HR
Signed: 2002 Draft, 2nd Round

Crain was a taken as a reliever in the second round of the 2002 draft and moved quickly to the big league club, cracking the bullpen for good midway through the 2004 season. The K rate was a worry heading into the 2006 season, but he ended up amending that kink in his armor. That Crain would eventually end up with shoulder problems suggest that it might be in a team's best interest to get productive years out of young pitchers while they can. While the Tigers have been aggressive in promoting top starting pitchers, relievers have often lagged behind and rotted in Erie and Toledo.

Francisco Liriano, 22, LHP
Salary: $327,000
Options: Yes
2005 Statistics: 23.2 IP, 5.70 ERA, 7 BB, 33 K, 4 HR (AAA: 91 IP, 1.78 ERA, 24 BB, 112 K, 4 HR, AA: 76.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 26 BB, 92 K, 6 HR)
Signed: Acquired from San Francisco with Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan for A.J. Pierzynski, November 14, 2003

Yes, Liriano started the year in the bullpen while the putzed around with Kyle Lohse. The good news is that Liriano's innings were kept down; the bad news is that it still didn't do a lick of good for them. This shows that the bullpen can be a nice place to get quality innings out of a developing starting pitcher while building him up for a rotation role down the line.

Matt Guerrier, 27, RHP
Salary: $343,500
Options: No
2005 Statistics: 71.7 IP, 3.39 ERA, 24 BB, 46 K, 6 HR
Signed: Claimed off waivers from Pittsburgh, November 20, 2003

The mop up guy for much of his early time in Minnesota, the Twins were once again able to get a former top prospect on the cheap from an inept general manager. Guerrier had been coming off an injury plagued (shoulder tendinitis) season in 2003, where he still kept his walks to a minimum in AAA. The Pirates foolishly tried to slip him through waivers. Duaner Sanchez was also lost on waivers to the Dodgers the same day, and this is the year where they lost five players in the Rule 5 draft.

Willie Eyre, 27, RHP
Salary: $327,000
Options: No
2005 Statistics: AAA: 82.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 28 BB, 74 K, 3 HR
Signed: 1999 Draft, 23rd round

Eyre made the team on the strength of a strong 2005 season in AAA and the fact that he was out of options. That said, he wasn't particularly effective in his time up with the club. The bullpen still survived, despite the dead weight. The problem starts to arise when you have several out of options losers clogging up the bullpen.

The team started with six players. Eventually moving up to seven with Liriano's promotion to the rotation, there were two more guys who played a huge role in this bullpen. These two guys will not count in the data, but they were lights out for the Twins.

Dennys Reyes, 29, LHP
Salary: $550,000
Options: No
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, February 21, 2006

Pat Neshek, 25, RHP
Salary: $320,000
Options: Yes
Signed: 2002 Draft, 6th round

Reyes came out of nowhere, and I don't see any injuries that would have masked his performance in the years leading up to 2006. Neshek was a reliever from the get go, and after dominating the minor leagues at every stop, became the second guy from the 2002 draft to join the bullpen.

Number of Relievers: 6
Average Salary: $1.00 millon
Amount with Options: 2/6
Previous Year ERA: 3.43
Previous Year BB/9: 3.55
Previous Year K/9: 8.24
Previous Year: HR/9: 0.64
Starting Pitching Innings: 65.4%
Team Defensive Efficiency: 0.692
%Innings Pitched by Opening Day Relievers: 74.3%
Major League Free Agents: 0/6
Drafted: 2/8
Acquired in Trade: 2/6
UDFA: 1/6
Waivers: 1/6
Minor League Free Agents: 0/6

The peripherals of the pitchers the previous season were nothing short of amazing. It was enough to make up for a weak back end of the rotation. The move of Liriano to the rotation and addition of a seventh reliever reduced the amount of innings thrown by the opening day relievers. Note once again how the bullpen was comprised of mostly homegrown players. Next, we'll take a look at ways the Tigers could copy the Twins model.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 4

Last time, we looked at the Cleveland Indians' bullpen from 2005, the best bullpen in the Majors since 2004. There was a marked trend in the type of relievers they picked up. Bob Wickman, Bobby Howry, Rafael Betancourt, and Scott Sauerbeck were all signed to discount deals after undergoing arm surgery. Wickman, Howry, and Sauerbeck all were top relievers during the 2000-2002 time period. Wickman and Howry had elbow surgery and returned to peak form, while Sauerbeck failed to do so after shoulder surgery. So which top relievers from 2004-2006 may be available this offseason? First, the guy coming back from elbow surgery.

Danys Baez, 31, Baltimore
Baez had Tommy John Surgery last fall, meaning he is probably due to return next season, and probably return to form late next season or early 2010. Baez was a pretty good reliever between 2003 and 2005. I would tend to believe that his 2006-2007 struggles were the result of pitching through injury. With a new elbow ligament, he could enjoy a few succesful seasons before it's all said and done. Baltimore owes him $5.5 million next year. My first instinct would be to make a swap similar to Rhodes/Lawton, getting out from under Gary Sheffield's contract to get a possible bullpen arm.

Now to shoulder rehabbers. The recovery from these injuries seems less likely, but could they be worth a flier?

Chad Cordero, 26, Washington
A very good second tier closer from 2004-2007 for Washington, Cordero went under the knife this year after suffering from a torn labrum. His loss of velocity was well documented, but now that there is a reason for the drop of velocity, he could be worth a shot. An arm like this will never come cheaper, especially now that Jim Bowden has foolishly announced they plan to non-tender Cordero after the year.

Derrick Turnbow, 30, Milwaukee
Turnbow simply couldn't pitch this year, but his 2005 season was very good. We now have a reason for his struggles, as he was diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff last week. Signing him to a minor league deal to see if lightning can be caught in a bottle after the recovery could be a worthy gamble.

Joel Zumaya, 23, Detroit
Assuming he can avoid further injury, Joel Zumaya could be a huge part of next year's team. The key will be to take it easy with him this year, now that the team seems to be falling out of the race. There is no point in jeopardizing what could be an important part of the team to gun for .500.

John Smoltz, 41, Atlanta
Probably too old to recover from pretty major shoulder surgery. I'm thinking Smoltz will retire.

The pool of players I grabbed, were the top 20 relievers each year from 2004-2006 in Win Expectancy from Baseball Prospectus. Any player that has had surgery on each of those lists and also may be available this offseason was listed.

Fernando Rodney was not listed for two reasons. First, he was never a top 20 reliever. Second, he has not had surgery to clean up whatever is wrong. The point of this excercise was to find players who may have arms that have been cleaned up and can be bought low. Rodney is arbitration eligible this offseason, and it may be an interesting decision whether to bring him up.

From this group, I would definitely inquire about Baez, try to sign Derrick Turnbow to a minor league deal, and sign Chad Cordero to an incentive laden one year deal with an option for a second.

Next, we'll take a look at the 2008 Dodgers bullpen, the second ranked pen since 2004.

How to Fix a Bullpen, Part 3

The 2005 Cleveland Indians can probably best be remembered by the shot of Ozzie Guillen with his hands around his neck. Known for their late season charge and last week collapse, the 2005 Indians can also be known for having the best bullpen of the past five seasons. How was this bullpen built? Let's take a look at the opening day bullpen and give them scores as described yesterday. (On a completely unrelated note, I just found that the Indians planned on placing Juan Gonzalez on their opening day roster, but an injury forced them to recall Grady Sizemore. The funny thing is that the Cardinals almost made this mistake this year, a move that would have potentially left all star Ryan Ludwick off the roster. Make that three teams that have dodged the Juan Gonzalez bullet.)

Bob Wickman, 36, RHP
Salary: $2,750,000
Options?: No (5+ Service Time)
2004 Statistics: 29.7 IP, 4.25 ERA, 10 BB, 26 K, 4 HR
Signed: Free Agent, 11/24/04

Re-upping Wickman was a very shrewd move. He had missed all of 2003 and the first part of 2004 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. As a result, the Indians were able to re-sign him to a relatively cheap $2.75 million deal with the hope that he would return to form, being two year's removed from the surgery. Maybe the key to a bullpen is to load up on guys who had Tommy John Surgery two years prior.

David Riske, 28, RHP
Salary: $1,425,000
Options?: No (5+ Service Time)
2004 Statistics: 77.3 IP, 3.72 ERA, 41 BB, 78 K, 11 HR
Signed: 1996 Draft, 56th round

Riske spent time as the Indians closer when Wickman was out, but was much better served for a middle relief role. I estimated that his service time was over 5, but that was not the case for the entire year. As a review, a player cannot be optioned to the minors without the consent when they have over five years of service time. For a guy in his arbitration years, $1.4 million is about what you'd expect for an above average middle reliever.

Arthur Rhodes, 35, LHP
Salary: $3,700,000
Options: No
2004 Statistics: 38.7 IP, 5.12 ERA, 21 BB, 34 K, 9 HR
Signed: Acquired from Pittsburgh for OF Matt Lawton, 12/9/04

Rhodes looked to be nearing the end of the road the previous season with Oakland. He was sent earlier in this offseason from Oakland to Pittsburgh in a salary dump trade for Jason Kendall. Then he was dealt in this other trade for Matt Lawton, it what appeared to be another salary dump*. Maybe sending an overpriced player like Gary Sheffield to a team looking to unload a high priced reliever with rebound potential could be a worthwhile move.

*On the surface it looks like a salary dump, but Matt Lawton was later suspended for steroid use. There were parts of the Mitchell Report which detailed the Dodgers' internal meetings, suspecting Eric Gagne to be a potential user as they were trying to deal him. Perhaps the Indians caught wind of something here and shipped Lawton away while they could.

Scott Sauerbeck, 33, LHP
Salary: $500,000
Options?: No
2004 Statistics: DNP, Out with Torn Labrum and Torn Rotator Cuff
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 4/12/04

Another buy low guy for the Indians. His shoulder surgery was in January, and they snapped him up to a Minor League deal, knowing he'd have to miss the entire 2004 season and excercised the option on his contract to get him on the cheap in 2005.

Rafael Betancourt, 30, RHP
Salary: $338,600
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 66.7 IP, 3.92 ERA, 18 BB, 76 K, 7 HR
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 1/20/03

Betancourt has had a rather unconventional career. Starting out with the Red Sox system as an infielder, he was converted to pitching. After pitching in their system for a number of years, he developed some elbow problems, and instead of having typical ligament replacement surgery in his elbow, he had a metal rod put in there to stabalize the joint. It was after this surgery that he tried out for the Indians and he made the club. After sticking with the bullpen in 2004, the rest has been history.

Bobby Howry, 31, RHP
Salary: $900,000
Options?: No
2004 Statistics: 42.7 IP, 2.74 ERA, 12 BB, 39 K, 5 HR (AAA: 26 IP, 5.19 ERA, 6 BB, 24 K, ? HR)
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 1/7/04

Bobby Howry's career turned around during his two years with Cleveland. He had missed much of the 2003 season following elbow surgery, and the Indians were subsequently able to get him signed to a Minor League deal while he rehabbed his elbow. The patience and foresight paid off as Howry emerged as one of the top relievers in baseball.

Matt Miller, 33, RHP
Salary: $329,700
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 55.3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 23 BB, 55 K, 1 HR (AAA: 14 IP, 1.93 ERA, 6 BB, 17 K, ? HR)
Signed: Minor League Free Agent, 2/13/04

Miller, another journeyman, caught fire in 2004. He didn't spend the whole 2005 season in the big leagues, but pitched well when he was up.

Jason Davis, 25, RHP
Salary: $341,700
Options?: Yes
2004 Statistics: 114.3 IP, 5.51 ERA, 51 BB, 72 K, 13 HR (AAA: 54 IP, 3.00 ERA, 18 BB, 39 K, ? HR)
Signed: 1999 Draft, 21st round

Davis actually started the season as the fifth starter, but only because of a brief injury to CC Sabathia. Davis was sent to the bullpen and Miller to AAA upon CC's mid-April return. For that reason, I am including him as a reliever.

Totaling up the statistics:
Number of Relievers: 7 (Even though, I've listed 8 guys, there were only 7 relievers)
Average Salary: $1.29 millon
Amount with Options: 3/8
Previous Year ERA: 4.26
Previous Year BB/9: 3.77
Previous Year K/9: 7.79
Previous Year: HR/9: 1.06
Starting Pitching Innings: 76.1%
Team Defensive Efficiency: 0.720
%Innings Pitched by Opening Day Relievers: 92.1%
Major League Free Agents: 1/8
Drafted: 2/8
Acquired in Trade: 1/8
UDFA: 0/8
Waivers: 0/8
Minor League Free Agents: 4/8

We'll know more about how these numbers compare as we look at other bullpens. You can learn a lot from this team, though. The first thing to notice is how they seemed to buy low on everybody. Bob Wickman was re-signed after recovering from Tommy John Surgery, Arthur Rhodes was picked up in a salary dump, while Bobby Howry, Rafael Betancourt, and Scott Sauerbeck were all signed to minor league deals while recovering from injuries. Could the secret to bullpen success be accurately predicting a pitcher's recovery from an arm injury?

Take notice of when these guys were signed. Sauerbeck and Howry were each signed during their rehab period before the 2004 season. It seems that this bullpen was built by projecting where these guys were going to be more than a year in the future. It's also interesting to note how many veterans comprised this bullpen. You also have to wonder how much the third ranked defense helped the cause. The fact that the bullpen stayed healthy for much of the year certainly didn't hurt either.

If this strategy seems like it would lead to short lived success, it did. The Cleveland bullpen regressed significantly in 2006. Rhodes and Howry left via free agency, while David Riske was dealt to Boston. It seemed the strategy of loading up on cheap veterans on the mend worked for one season

If you want to see how each pitcher did individually during the 2005 season, check out the team page at Baseball Reference. Wickman, Howry, Rhodes, Riske, and Betancourt were all lights out. Throw in mid-season promotion Fernando Cabrera and Eric Wedge had plenty of options towards the end of the game.

Before looking at this year's Dodger team (#2 on the list), I will spend the next post looking for possible relief pitchers who fit the Indians' plan.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

A possible reliever?

The Giants designated Sergio Romo for assignment today. He's 25, and his minor league numbers look pretty good. This could be a worthwhile pick up.

Okay, maybe not... It looks like he was designated for assignment on a technicality, because he was put on August revocable waivers and couldn't be sent down until he cleared. Oh well.