Offseason: What to Expect in October

The Tigers will know if the offseason will start today or tomorrow after the Twins and White Sox play their games today. Regardless of when it does, I wanted to provide some context to some of the procedural moves that will happen while the league's best (and the Dodgers) duke it out in the postseason.

Assuming Todd Jones is not taking up a roster spot, the Tigers currently have 39 players on the 40 man roster with three more on the 60-day DL. I believe they can wait until some of the eligible free agents file to activate them from the disabled list, so there may not be a rush to make moves.

Numerous players will be crossing the waiver wire in October. It is possible the Tigers could snag a player off waivers that somebody else is trying to pass through. Remember, though, that they need to have room on the roster to do so. Also, bear in mind that it may not be a wise move to claim every player out there off waivers because roster spots are at a premium. To make room for possible claims, some players may be removed early. Dane Sardinha and Gary Glover come to mind as candidates.

This is where outright free agents come into play. These are guys who could declare free agency before the rest of the minor league and major league free agents. Any player with more than three year's experience who is removed from the 40 man roster or a player who is removed for at least the second time can declare free agency through this route. Most of these players are eligible for minor league free agency, but they may get their names in the transactions log this route. So far, Francis Beltran and Francisco Cruceta are eligible to declare free agency. Most of the players who would get outrighted in October may also end up on this list.

Finally, we will likely see staff changes in October, probably immediately after the season. Aside from any rumored coaches, keep an eye on the trainer situation. Certainly if the bloggers have turned on Kevin Rand and his staff, there has to be some discussion of a change there. Rand, himself, was hired in October of 2002. If you want to see a change, don't get your hopes up. Rand is one of Dave Dombrowski's guys, working for the Marlins from 1993-2001 and the Tigers since 2003. As for the coaches, pitching coach Chuck Hernandez would certainly be near the top of any list of coaches in jeopardy.

Scanning the System: Catchers

Once every week or so, I plan to keep an eye on the minor league system on a position by position basis. Each player will have their BA/OBP/SLG split shown, as well as their expected BA/OBP/SLG split. The "expected" value is derived from analysis by Baseball Prospectus's Mark Normandin that shows that given normal luck with balls in play, a player's batting average on balls in play will be equal to his line drive rate plus .120. What I've done is take the difference, figure out how many extra singles they should have hit so far and added to their stats. All singles are rounded to the nearest integer so some players' numbers will be identical. The intent of this is to try and weed out flukes and guys who have benefited from good luck and those who have suffered from bad luck. It's important to point out that when you are dealing with such small samples that conclusions are very hard to come to at this point. Starting with catchers:

Detroit:
Ivan Rodriguez, 36
Actual: .189/.246/.321
Expected: .183/.333/.415

Pudge has a BABIP of only .214 this season, and according to the data, has been hitting the ball reasonably well. It's way too soon to panic, as he should be fine as soon as balls start finding holes. I don't have Inge in my system as a catcher, even though he's technically the backup.

Toledo:
Dane Sardinha, 28
Actual: .250/.306/.375
Expected: .250/.306/.375

Nick Trzesniak, 27
Actual: .077/.143/.077
Expected: .143/.214/.143

It's way too early, as I said.

Erie:
Dusty Ryan, 23
Actual: .286/.375/.689
Expected: .286/.375/.689

Max St. Pierre, 28
Actual: .333/.389/.515
Expected: .272/.333/.454

Is it too early to jump back on the Dusty Ryan bandwagon? Probably. A lot of catchers, though, are late bloomers with the bat. If he keeps up this offensive performance over the course of the season, he may be for real. Then again, we are talking about 32 plate appearances.

Lakeland:
James Skelton, 22
Actual: .321/.441/.321
Expected: .285/.412/.285

Jeff Kunkel, 25
Actual: .286/.318/.333
Expected: .191/.227/.242

Skelton's never really hit for much power, and has yet to have an extra-base hit this year. Jeff Kunkel is a defense first guy, so he isn't expected to hit. Don't expect his numbers to stay decent.

West Michigan:
Jordan Newton, 22
Actual: .387/.424/.484
Expected .322/.363/.419

Joe Bowen, 19
Actual: .111/.238/.167
Expected: .167/.286/.223

Adrian Casanova, 24
Actual: .000/.333/.000

Bowen was placed on the disabled list this week with a hyper-extended elbow, and replaced by Casanova, who has only put one ball in play in his three plate appearances. Even without this excercise, you could probably see that Newton's numbers were batting average driven. He's still been solid this season, a refreshing turnaround from his first two seasons. I did see first hand this week why there are doubts about his ability to stay behind the plate, as he two-hopped a ball to the shortstop side on a steal attempt.