Detroit Tigers Thoughts

Placido Polanco's Free Agent Type

2009-09-07T14:25:00.004-04:00

Alas, I've been typecast as the Elias guy. As long as there is great Tigers coverage in other places, I guess I'm okay with that.

As I was running the Elias numbers (which were posted at MLBTradeRumors today), I saw that Placido Polanco was inching ever so close to Type A status. I don't really want to get into the implications of Polanco reaching Type A status, the likelihood of an arbitration offer, or the possibility of Scott Sizemore taking over the 2B job. No, this is simply going to be a close look at Polanco's ranking and the possibility that he reaches Type A status.

First, I'll post the AL 2B/3B/SS rankings, which can be found at the link above.

Name	Team	Type	Score	Pos
Alex Rodriguez	New York A	A	93.27731092	3B
Derek Jeter	New York A	A	90.47619048	SS
Michael Young	Texas	A	85.97883598	SS
Dustin Pedroia	Boston	A	85.71428571	2B
Marco Scutaro	Toronto	A	83.06878307	SS
Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay	A	82.35294118	3B
Ian Kinsler	Texas	A	80.71428571	2B
Jhonny Peralta	Cleveland	A	80.68783069	SS
Brian Roberts	Baltimore	A	77.85714286	2B
Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay	A	77.77777778	SS
Mike Lowell	Boston	A	76.47058824	3B
Orlando Cabrera	Minnesota	A	75.92592593	SS
Chone Figgins	Los Angeles A	A	73.94957983	3B
Placido Polanco	Detroit	B	73.57142857	2B
Robinson Cano	New York A	B	71.42857143	2B
Alexei Ramirez	Chicago A	B	68.25396825	SS
Melvin Mora	Baltimore	B	68.06722689	3B
Erick Aybar	Los Angeles A	B	67.1957672	SS
Aaron Hill	Toronto	B	65.71428571	2B
Adrian Beltre	Seattle	B	65.54621849	3B
Mike Aviles	Kansas City	B	63.49206349	SS
Asdrubal Cabrera	Cleveland	B	62.85714286	2B
Jose Lopez	Seattle	B	62.85714286	2B
Yuniesky Betancourt	Kansas City	B	58.73015873	SS
Jack Wilson	Seattle	B	58.2010582	SS
Brendan Harris	Minnesota	B	57.40740741	SS
Cesar Izturis	Baltimore	None	56.61375661	SS
Howie Kendrick	Los Angeles A	None	56.42857143	2B
Brandon Inge	Detroit	None	55.46218487	3B
Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay	None	55	2B
Ty Wigginton	Baltimore	None	54.62184874	3B
Bobby Crosby	Oakland	None	54.4973545	SS
Mark Ellis	Oakland	None	54.28571429	2B
Nick Punto	Minnesota	None	50.79365079	SS
Carlos Guillen	Detroit	None	50.42016807	3B
Akinori Iwamura	Tampa Bay	None	50	2B
Edwin Encarnacion	Toronto	None	49.57983193	3B
Maicer Izturis	Los Angeles A	None	49.28571429	2B
Joe Crede	Minnesota	None	48.7394958	3B
Ramon Santiago	Detroit	None	48.67724868	SS
Alberto Callaspo	Kansas City	None	48.57142857	2B
Elvis Andrus	Texas	None	44.70899471	SS
Jed Lowrie	Boston	None	43.91534392	SS
Jamey Carroll	Cleveland	None	42.85714286	2B
Omar Vizquel	Texas	None	40.21164021	SS
Adam Everett	Detroit	None	38.62433862	SS
Alex Gonzalez	Boston	None	38.0952381	SS
Adam Kennedy	Oakland	None	37.85714286	2B
Jack Hannahan	Seattle	None	33.61344538	3B
Jose Bautista	Toronto	None	32.77310924	3B
Gordon Beckham	Chicago A	None	31.51260504	3B
Cliff Pennington	Oakland	None	30.68783069	SS
Bill Hall	Seattle	None	28.57142857	3B
Chris Getz	Chicago A	None	26.42857143	2B
Nick Green	Boston	None	25.66137566	SS
Andy Marte	Cleveland	None	25.21008403	3B
Alexi Casilla	Minnesota	None	20.71428571	2B
Eric Chavez	Oakland	None	16.80672269	3B
Robert Andino	Baltimore	None	15.34391534	SS
John McDonald	Toronto	None	14.81481481	SS
Luis Valbuena	Cleveland	None	14.28571429	2B
Andy Cannizaro	Chicago A	None	14.28571429	SS
Robb Quinlan	Los Angeles A	None	13.02521008	3B
Josh Wilson	Seattle	None	12.16931217	SS
Jayson Nix	Chicago A	None	11.42857143	2B
Brent Lillibridge	Chicago A	None	3.703703704	SS
Esteban German	Texas	None	2.142857143	2B

Polanco is ever so close to Chone Figgins for that last Type A spot. Let's take a closer look. First, we need to remember that each of the players on this list get their score from players at their own position, noting that players' positions are defined by where they played the most games over the past two seasons. Here are the 2B:

Ian Kinsler	Texas	80.71428571
Aaron Hill	Toronto	65.71428571
Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay	55
Jose Lopez	Seattle	62.85714286
Robinson Cano	New York A	71.42857143
Dustin Pedroia	Boston	85.71428571
Brian Roberts	Baltimore	77.85714286
Mark Ellis	Oakland	54.28571429
Placido Polanco	Detroit	73.57142857
Howie Kendrick	Los Angeles A	56.42857143
Maicer Izturis	Los Angeles A	49.28571429
Adam Kennedy	Oakland	37.85714286
Jayson Nix	Chicago A	11.42857143
Asdrubal Cabrera	Cleveland	62.85714286
Alberto Callaspo	Kansas City	48.57142857
Akinori Iwamura	Tampa Bay	50
Luis Valbuena	Cleveland	14.28571429
Alexi Casilla	Minnesota	20.71428571
Jamey Carroll	Cleveland	42.85714286
Chris Getz	Chicago A	26.42857143
Esteban German	Texas	2.142857143

Possible Position Changes
If one of these players "changes" positions, everybody's ranking will change. The ones who are within 15 games of moving to another position are as follows:

Ben Zobrist*: 88 games at 2B, 75 games in OF
Maicer Izturis: 79 games at 2B, 76 games at SS
Esteban German**: 29 games at 2B, 29 games at OF

*Ben Zobrist, by the way, is getting straight up overlooked in the AL MVP race.
**I'm honestly not sure what happens in the event of a tie. My projections default to the lower scorebook number. It was just easier that way.

And players at other positions who could move to second base:
Brent Lillibridge: 26 games at SS, 16 games at 2B
Eric Patterson: 24 games at 2B, 3o games at OF

Zobrist (Did I mention he deserves MVP mention?) has been playing a lot of outfield since Akinori Iwamura returned. Will he get 14 more starts in the outfield than second base? Possibly.

Barring an Erick Aybar injury, Maicer Izturis will probably continue to play more second than short this year. We'll leave him with the second basemen.

German hasn't played in the outfield at all with the Rangers this year. As a result, I'll say he'll get some "Rest Ian Kinsler" time and qualify at 2B.

Brent Lillibridge, Chicago's second utility infielder, probably won't play enough to make up a 10 game difference. He stays at shortstop.

Eric Patterson has been playing mostly outfield with the A's this year. He won't make the move to 2B.

In total, Ben Zobrist is the only player who projects to move. How do the 2B look without Ben Zobrist, who is more qualified to win the AL MVP than Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Cabrera?

Dustin Pedroia	Boston	86.46616541
Ian Kinsler	Texas	81.20300752
Brian Roberts	Baltimore	78.94736842
Placido Polanco	Detroit	73.68421053
Robinson Cano	New York A	72.18045113
Aaron Hill	Toronto	64.66165414
Jose Lopez	Seattle	63.15789474
Asdrubal Cabrera	Cleveland	63.15789474
Howie Kendrick	Los Angeles A	56.39097744
Mark Ellis	Oakland	54.88721805
Akinori Iwamura	Tampa Bay	50.37593985
Maicer Izturis	Los Angeles A	48.87218045
Alberto Callaspo	Kansas City	48.87218045
Jamey Carroll	Cleveland	42.85714286
Adam Kennedy	Oakland	37.59398496
Chris Getz	Chicago A	26.31578947
Alexi Casilla	Minnesota	21.05263158
Luis Valbuena	Cleveland	15.03759398
Jayson Nix	Chicago A	12.03007519
Esteban German	Texas	2.255639098

You can see Polanco is helped, but not enough.

Let's start digging into the statistics a bit:

Plate Appearances

Ian Kinsler	1354.0394
Dustin Pedroia	1328
Brian Roberts	1312
Jose Lopez	1236
Robinson Cano	1215
Placido Polanco	1184
Akinori Iwamura	1137.5
Aaron Hill	1093.7778
Mark Ellis	1000.4535
Asdrubal Cabrera	993.66238
Alberto Callaspo	904.26335
Adam Kennedy	858
Howie Kendrick	857.50549
Ben Zobrist	829.89116
Maicer Izturis	839.45848
Jamey Carroll	773.18395
Alexi Casilla	734.29393
Chris Getz	397.78797
Luis Valbuena	369
Jayson Nix	339.17419
Esteban German	275.53459

Do you see Polanco getting 30 more PA's than Robinson Cano the rest of the year? Me either. I also don't see Hill or Iwamura coming from behind to catch him, even though they are going to get roughly 1.2 PA's per PA the rest of the year. Polanco will not move up or down in this category.

Homeruns

Ian Kinsler	56.77
Aaron Hill	42.17
Ben Zobrist	40.12
Jose Lopez	39
Robinson Cano	37
Dustin Pedroia	27
Brian Roberts	23
Mark Ellis	22.01
Placido Polanco	18
Howie Kendrick	13.42
Maicer Izturis	13.38
Adam Kennedy	12
Jayson Nix	11.96
Asdrubal Cabrera	11.92
Alberto Callaspo	9.594
Akinori Iwamura	8.75
Luis Valbuena	8
Alexi Casilla	7.537
Jamey Carroll	3.381
Chris Getz	2.133
Esteban German	0

The same goes for homeruns, where there are 4+ homers separating Polanco from the players in front of and behind him. He won't move up or down here unless Ben Zobrist moves over to the outfielders.

RBI's

Ian Kinsler	180
Jose Lopez	173
Robinson Cano	147
Aaron Hill	145.7
Dustin Pedroia	140
Brian Roberts	122
Placido Polanco	121
Ben Zobrist	116.9
Asdrubal Cabrera	112.7
Maicer Izturis	111.9
Mark Ellis	110.1
Howie Kendrick	108.6
Adam Kennedy	88
Alberto Callaspo	83.95
Akinori Iwamura	83.75
Alexi Casilla	69.98
Jamey Carroll	65.37
Chris Getz	34.13
Jayson Nix	33.7
Luis Valbuena	25
Esteban German	23.31

Things are a bit tighter with RBI's. Polanco is only one RBI behind Brian Roberts, but only 4 above the AL's second most valuable player. If Polanco can pass Roberts, while holding off Zobrist, he will gain a point in the standings. A point in the standings, with 20 2B in the rankings, will be good for 1*100/(20*7)=.714 points in the rankings. Assuming Figgins stays put and all of the other categories stay the same, Polanco could reach Type A status by out-RBI ing Roberts and Zobrist.

Batting Average

Dustin Pedroia	0.310810811
Alberto Callaspo	0.298118669
Howie Kendrick	0.295902883
Robinson Cano	0.293554007
Placido Polanco	0.293040293
Brian Roberts	0.290546401
Asdrubal Cabrera	0.28875
Ian Kinsler	0.287148594
Maicer Izturis	0.28363047
Jose Lopez	0.283491789
Adam Kennedy	0.282802548
Jamey Carroll	0.281879195
Akinori Iwamura	0.279156328
Aaron Hill	0.279040404
Chris Getz	0.275147929
Ben Zobrist	0.273322422
Mark Ellis	0.249655172
Alexi Casilla	0.249169435
Luis Valbuena	0.241176471
Esteban German	0.238095238
Jayson Nix	0.205882353

With any rate stats, you have to worry about players who have such little playing time that a 3/3 day could move them all the way up to the top of the list. Luckily, there are no such players among this year's 2B crop. You can see Polanco is in the midst of a tight group of players. As such, a strong or weak finish to the year from him or one of the players around him (Kendrick, Cano, Roberts, Cabrera, or Kinsler) will affect his rankings. Polanco can likely move ahead of two players (+1.428 in the rankings) or move behind three (-2.143).

OBP

Ben Zobrist	0.378976487
Dustin Pedroia	0.371016692
Brian Roberts	0.364678899
Jamey Carroll	0.359583952
Asdrubal Cabrera	0.356026786
Akinori Iwamura	0.35209713
Ian Kinsler	0.351302785
Alberto Callaspo	0.35059761
Maicer Izturis	0.344023324
Placido Polanco	0.336170213
Chris Getz	0.333333333
Adam Kennedy	0.332942556
Howie Kendrick	0.331428571
Robinson Cano	0.326194399
Aaron Hill	0.324324324
Mark Ellis	0.319753086
Jose Lopez	0.312143439
Alexi Casilla	0.311844078
Esteban German	0.30078125
Luis Valbuena	0.298102981
Jayson Nix	0.296774194

Getz and Kennedy are right on Polanco's heals, and Izturis will probably be hard to catch. There is a potential for a move behind two players (-1.428).

Fielding Percentage

Asdrubal Cabrera	0.993630573
Mark Ellis	0.992639327
Placido Polanco	0.992307692
Jamey Carroll	0.991683992
Aaron Hill	0.991351351
Dustin Pedroia	0.990740741
Howie Kendrick	0.990123457
Maicer Izturis	0.989041096
Ben Zobrist	0.988795518
Brian Roberts	0.986373959
Akinori Iwamura	0.98569857
Chris Getz	0.984649123
Luis Valbuena	0.984496124
Robinson Cano	0.984016678
Ian Kinsler	0.979953739
Jose Lopez	0.978740157
Jayson Nix	0.978647687
Alberto Callaspo	0.977746871
Alexi Casilla	0.977719528
Adam Kennedy	0.976190476
Esteban German	0.969924812

I'd say Polanco is relatively secure here. Unless he goes on an error binge, he probably won't be moving up or down enough to change his ranking. Asdrubal Cabrera won't be moving anywhere, given that he's playing shortstop these days. Errors are so random, that this is tough to predict.

Total Chances (A+E+PO)

Ian Kinsler	1566.63
Robinson Cano	1439
Brian Roberts	1321
Placido Polanco	1300
Dustin Pedroia	1296
Jose Lopez	1270
Aaron Hill	1181.94
Mark Ellis	1163.12
Akinori Iwamura	1136.25
Howie Kendrick	988.022
Alberto Callaspo	862.288
Alexi Casilla	821.505
Asdrubal Cabrera	680.502
Adam Kennedy	588
Jamey Carroll	542.13
Chris Getz	486.304
Maicer Izturis	444.061
Ben Zobrist	409.214
Luis Valbuena	387
Jayson Nix	305.474
Esteban German	140.947

Pedroia could catch Polanco here (-.714), but it's not exactly likely. There aren't likely to be any significant changes at the top, given that everybody around Polanco is playing every day at 2B.

So, assuming Zobrist stays at 2B, Polanco could possibly move up a total of 2.143 points and down a total of 3.790. The math gets a bit complicated if Mauer's should-be MVP runner up gets a lot of time in the outfield this year.

Overall, Polanco has the potential to move into Type A range with a strong batting average, no errors, and plenty of RBI's.

Next time, I'll take a look at Chone Figgins and the possibility that he can move behind Polanco.

Amazing what you can miss in a day...

2009-08-05T18:31:00.003-04:00

Thanks to the great service at Comcast, much of the Jacksonville, FL area was without cable and internet yesterday. While I really don't like boring my eight readers with personal details, it sets up the shock I had when I checked up on the Tigers during my lunch break today.

The most obvious shock was the wave of transactions before and after last night's game.

Recalling Wilkin Ramirez makes sense. Curtis Granderson was in need of a day off, and there is a shortage of right-handed bats on the team. If you can make a roster move for a spot starting pitcher, why not for a spot starting outfielder? Sending down Fien also makes sense. His last two outings have been rough.

I particularly liked Jim Leyland's quotes about this from MLB.com:

"We might be tinkering with our rosters for the next month or so," Leyland said. "If we overtax our bullpen tonight, we may send [Ramirez] back down tomorrow. He'll start tonight and who knows, that could be it. For one day, we have enough [rested arms] in our bullpen so we went out and added another right-handed bat."

...

"We're not trying to reinvent the wheel here," Leyland said. "If you have the flexibility with your Major League roster, why not tinker with it. So don't read too much into this move."

It makes sense to me to utilize roster flexibility and take advantage of the short distance between Toledo and Detroit. It's a way to effectively expand the roster for the rest of the season. In a tight division race, it's the type of strategy that could make a huge difference.

After the game, Ramirez, no longer needed to spell Granderson, was sent back to Toledo along with Dusty Ryan (Honestly, was he even on the roster?). Chris Lambert, effectively taking Fien's place on the roster, and top catching prospect Alex Avila came up.

Lambert is a quality choice. He's been rolling lately. Had I been a motivated blogger, you would have seen me calling for his promotion back when Eddie Bonine got the spot start.

Avila is interesting, because there are procedural roster implications to this move.

He was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2011 season. He'll now be using up a 40 man roster spot that could be used on somebody else for two years.
He'll also be using up option years he wouldn't have otherwise been using if he's not ready for the big leagues. Recent history shows that there is a learning curve for top catching prospects once they reach the Majors. Look no further than Chris Ianetta, J.R. Towles, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero, and Matt Wieters as guys who came up with high expectations and took (or are still taking) years to live up to them. It's definitely a risk that could come back to bite the Tigers if Avila runs out of options as he's reaching his potential.
He'll probably be riding a lot of pine. For whatever reason, Gerald Laird is still starting somewhere around 10 games per week. This, however, could be an intended benefit of purchasing Avila's contract. How could that be? Catchers take quite a toll. Often, in the minors, catchers' workloads are built up gradually, much like pitchers. Rather than have him start 20-25 more games with Erie the rest of the year, they may be wanting to limit his workload, much like a pitcher in his first professional season. Having him sit the bench in the bigs could provide him that opportunity, while allowing him to get comfortable instead of being shell shocked in April.

Finally, these moves are also intriguing because of the new postseason roster rules. Rather than having position player and pitcher quotas, the rules have changed to have players on the 40 man roster as of August 31 eligible. Alex Avila is now eligible for postseason play, if the Tigers make it. This gives the Tigers two choices for backup catcher, rather than the one if Dusty Ryan had remained on the roster and Avila had been called up in September. Cycling players like Ramirez, Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Ryan Perry, and Lambert through the roster give the Tigers an extra look at players if they need to make a decision on who to put on the roster in early October.

Rule 6.05 (k)

2009-07-03T22:37:00.001-04:00

In running the last half of the distance from home base to first base, while the ball is being fielded to first base, he runs outside (to the right of) the three-foot line, or inside (to the left of) the foul line, and in the umpire’s judgment in so doing interferes with the fielder taking the throw at first base, in which case the ball is dead; except that he may run outside (to the right of) the three-foot line or inside (to the left of) the foul line to avoid a fielder attempting to field a batted ball;

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2008/official_rules//06_the_batter.pdf

Interpret as you will...

$13.84 Million

2009-06-26T22:39:00.002-04:00

Nate Robertson has always been a favorite of mine. He's been a great Tiger in the community and was an underrated pitcher in his early years. Unfortunately, he can no longer retire Major League hitters at a suitable rate.

In this day and age of the seven-man bullpen and endangered pitchers, a black hole cannot be hidden in the bullpen. This is evidenced by the fact that Robertson has been brought into games twice this week with narrow leads. While it hasn't come back to bite the Tigers, it could in the near future.

The $13.84 million dollars that Robertson has left on his contract are on the plate. The Tigers should be hungry enough to simply eat it already. It's not going to go anywhere else.

Updated Elias Rankings

2009-06-26T18:59:00.001-04:00

Can be found here:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/elias-rankings.html

Tweeting now...

2009-06-23T20:45:00.002-04:00

http://twitter.com/ebajek85

I'll try to keep up with in-game commentary and Tigers randomness...

Refused Optional Assignment

2009-06-21T20:14:00.004-04:00

A lot of doubt has been raised over whether the Tigers would still owe a player money if they refused assignment. Let's apply this to the case of Nate Robertson, a player who is clearly taking up space on the roster and is incapable of giving the Tigers high leverage innings.

Let's take a look at the CBA:

I want to break Article XIX A (2) down line by line to attempt to answer this question.

The contract of a Player with five or more years of Major
League service, not including service while on the Military List (or
seven or more years of Major League service, including service
while on the Military List), shall not be assigned otherwise than to
another Major League Club, without the Player’s written consent.

As this applies to Robertson, because his service time exceeds five years, he needs to provide written consent to be sent on an optional assignment, despite the fact that he has options remaining.

Not earlier than 4 days prior to the contemplated date of
an assignment requiring the Player’s consent under subparagraph
(a) above, or 8 days, if the Player has no options remaining or if
the assignment is during the period from the close of the championship
season to the opening of spring training, the Club shall
give written notice to the Player, with a copy to the Association,
which shall advise the Player that he may (i) consent to the
assignment, (ii) refuse the assignment or (iii) elect to become a
free agent.

There are a few things in this sentence. First, the Tigers would need to submit the paperwork to Robertson four days before he is to be optioned. Second, this is different for players without options, but it doesn't matter in that case, because those players are typically designated for assignment. The final clause of this sentence is crucial. The player can either consent to the assignment, refuse the assignment, or elect to become a free agent.

REFUSING AN ASSIGNMENT DOES NOT MEAN THE PLAYER IS ELECTING FREE AGENCY. HE IS JUST STAYING ON THE MAJOR LEAGUE ROSTER!

That is important, thanks in large part to XIX A (2c), which led to some confusion.

A Player who elects to become a free agent under this
paragraph (2) shall immediately be eligible to negotiate and contract
with any Club without any restrictions or qualifications.
Such Player shall not be entitled to receive termination pay. Such
a free agent shall receive transportation and travel expenses in the
same manner as he would if he had been unconditionally released
except that he shall be limited to receiving travel expenses to his
new club if he reports to it directly, provided such expenses are
less than to his home city.

If a player opts for free agency, the team is no longer on the hook for his salary. This is not the case for a refused assignment. Because refusing an assignment and opting for free agency are different cases for players with options, the loss of termination pay does apply when the player decides he wants to stay on the Major League roster.

If the Tigers try to option Nate Robertson, he has the right to stay on the roster and still get paid. This is likely what happened.

Elias Rankings Moving

2009-06-13T00:34:00.001-04:00

They'll be on mlbtraderumors.com from here on out. I'm sure if you found this site, you know all about MLB Trade Rumors.

Testing Again

2009-06-11T21:20:00.006-04:00

I'm not willing to say these are final. I want people to point out any errors that they see. These errors could include.

Players being too high, too low (I've noticed a lot of statistical import bugs, but think I've caught them all)
Free Agency status marked incorrectly.
Formatting errors
Injured players being ranked too low. Activated, formerly injured players, ranked too high.

Here are known issues:

Chris Snelling is listed as a Starting Pitcher.
Left/Right formatting issues
NL Infielders are missing their team
Tomo Ohka's stats did not import correctly.

Reader-mentioned issues:

Willie Bloomquist and Noah Lowry incorrectly listed as free agents.

Please fire away. I'd like it if these rankings weren't cited, as they could be incorrect. I just need help debugging. These rankings are through Wednesday June 10.

Rankings 061109 Publish at Scribd or explore others:

I'm an Idiot

2009-06-07T00:48:00.003-04:00

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/12/andrew-friedman-takes-dd-to-cleaners.html

When in the history of anything has anybody been more wrong in predicting something? And Matt Joyce is red hot...

Elias Update

2009-06-03T19:54:00.002-04:00

I've been pretty busy of late, but I have the roster issues fixed. I've got one more hurdle to take care of, and that's outputting the rankings in an efficient manner, and we should be good to go. In the meantime, if you are curious about any players in particular, shoot me an email and I'll get you an estimate of where they stand.

Testing...

2009-05-24T09:04:00.002-04:00

ALC0809

Publish at Scribd or explore others:

A few comments.

Dioner Navarro is NOT a free agent. There's a glitch in the code that I'll look into.
Max Ramirez is not on the active roster and should not be listed. I'm still working on finding a more suitable roster source, but nothing has worked quite yet. CNNSI still has Nick Adenhart listed, but they still list DL'ed players with their rosters, which gives them a step up on more accurate sources like MLB.com.

I'll admit, I laughed

2009-05-19T21:21:00.001-04:00

"I wonder if Marlon Byrd tweets"
-Mario

What he said

2009-05-16T09:08:00.001-04:00

I've been meaning to do this for a while, but have been pretty busy.

Anyways, Billfer said it for me:

DTW: The one where I admit my wrongness: Edwin Jackson edition

For old time's sake

2009-05-11T20:40:00.000-04:00

Inconsistency?

2009-05-10T08:56:00.002-04:00

A quote from Eric Wedge after last night's game:

“We can’t keep playing the game with this type of inconsistency,”

I can't help but think back-to-back shutouts is pretty consistent. Consistent is consistently overused in sports. There are numerous synonyms for the word bad. Use one of them instead of copping out and saying "inconsistent!"

Memo to Jim Leyland

2009-05-05T16:46:00.002-04:00

When you move somebody down in the order, they bat less often.

When you bat your most effective hitters to date #4, #5, and #7, expect to score less runs.

This:

Josh Anderson
Placido Polanco
Clete Thomas
Miguel Cabrera
Curtis Granderson
Magglio Ordonez
Brandon Inge
Gerald Laird
Ramon Santiago

is about as bad of a lineup as you can get out of those guys.

Quick Elias Preview

2009-04-25T11:54:00.002-04:00

I expect to have these up and running, updating daily, in a few weeks. However, here's a quick glance at the American League rankings, Tigers in blue, free agent Tigers in bold.

Catchers:

Joe Mauer	A	93.333
Dioner Navarro	A	80.952
Kurt Suzuki	A	79.524
Victor Martinez	A	78.571
A.J. Pierzynski	A	77.619
Mike Napoli	A	77.143
Kelly Shoppach	B	70.952
Jorge Posada	B	70.000
Rod Barajas	B	69.762
Jason Varitek	B	69.048
Gerald Laird	B	65.714
John Buck	B	58.095
Miguel Olivo	None	52.143
Kenji Johjima	None	50.476
Gregg Zaun	None	46.667
Mike Redmond	None	45.714
Jeff Mathis	None	45.714
Jose Molina	None	44.762
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	None	43.810
Raul Chavez	None	40.476
Matt Treanor	None	37.143
Taylor Teagarden	None	35.238
Michael Barrett	None	34.286
Jamie Burke	None	32.143
Shawn Riggans	None	31.667
Chad Moeller	None	30.238
Jose Morales	None	27.381
George Kottaras	None	19.048
Rob Johnson	None	19.048
Corky Miller	None	14.524
Michel Hernandez	None	9.286

First Base/Outfield/DH

Aubrey Huff	A	92.857
Matt Holliday	A	90.857
Nick Markakis	A	90.429
Josh Hamilton	A	87.857
Magglio Ordonez	A	87.714
Jason Bay	A	86.857
Mark Teixeira	A	86.471
Vernon Wells	A	84.000
Miguel Cabrera	A	83.529
Justin Morneau	A	83.529
Grady Sizemore	A	83.286
Bobby Abreu	A	82.571
Carlos Quentin	A	82.429
Kevin Youkilis	A	82.353
Johnny Damon	A	80.857
Shin-Soo Choo	A	80.000
Jermaine Dye	A	79.571
Vladimir Guerrero	A	78.857
Carlos Pena	A	78.824
Xavier Nady	A	78.571
David Ortiz	A	78.571
Hideki Matsui	A	78.571
Curtis Granderson	B	77.714
Jim Thome	B	74.286
Pat Burrell	B	71.857
Torii Hunter	B	71.429
Jason Kubel	B	71.429
Alexis Rios	B	69.857
Ichiro Suzuki	B	69.143
J.D. Drew	B	68.286
Marlon Byrd	B	67.714
David Dejesus	B	67.429
Jack Cust	B	67.286
B.J. Upton	B	63.714
Nelson Cruz	B	60.429
Jose Guillen	B	59.143
Luke Scott	B	58.000
Denard Span	B	57.714
Delmon Young	B	57.429
Lyle Overbay	B	57.059
Carl Crawford	B	56.857
Adam Jones	None	56.000
Billy Butler	None	55.714
Nick Swisher	None	55.571
David Murphy	None	55.429
Jason Giambi	None	55.294
Ken Griffey	None	55.000
Mark Teahen	None	53.429
Jacoby Ellsbury	None	52.143
Paul Konerko	None	51.765
Mike Sweeney	None	51.429
Adam Lind	None	50.286
Mike Jacobs	None	50.000
Ryan Garko	None	49.412
Jeff Bailey	None	48.571
Ryan Sweeney	None	48.286
Coco Crisp	None	48.000
Ben Francisco	None	47.857
Mark Kotsay	None	47.143
Hank Blalock	None	45.882
Rocco Baldelli	None	44.286
Kevin Millar	None	41.765
Gabe Kapler	None	41.714
Travis Snider	None	41.714
Juan Miranda	None	40.588
Travis Hafner	None	40.000
Carlos Gomez	None	39.429
Marcus Thames	None	39.143
Gabe Gross	None	38.714
Willie Bloomquist	None	37.286
David Dellucci	None	37.143
Melky Cabrera	None	36.857
Matthew Joyce	None	36.571
Chris Davis	None	36.471
Michael Cuddyer	None	34.857
Gary Matthews	None	34.286
Josh Anderson	None	34.143
Franklin Gutierrez	None	33.714
Endy Chavez	None	33.286
Juan Rivera	None	33.000
Ryan Freel	None	32.714
Wilson Betemit	None	24.706
Fernando Perez	None	24.286
Jeff Larish	None	23.571
Brian Anderson	None	23.143
Travis Buck	None	20.857
Chris Carter	None	20.714
Brayan Pena	None	20.714
DeWayne Wise	None	19.857
Andruw Jones	None	18.286
Mitch Maier	None	17.857
Ryan Raburn	None	17.143
Wladimir Balentien	None	16.571
Rajai Davis	None	15.286
Cody Ransom	None	13.529
Robert Andino	None	12.143
Reggie Willits	None	11.286
Kendry Morales	None	11.176
Brett Gardner	None	10.429
Felix Pie	None	9.857
Landon Powell	None	7.647
Jonathan Van Every	None	5.857
Jerry Owens	None	3.000
Trevor Crowe	None	1.857

2B/3B/SS

Name	Type	Score
Ian Kinsler	A	94.286
Derek Jeter	A	89.011
Alex Rodriguez	A	82.993
Evan Longoria	A	81.633
Dustin Pedroia	A	80.000
Melvin Mora	A	76.871
Mike Lowell	A	76.871
Alex Gordon	A	76.871
Jhonny Peralta	A	76.374
Michael Young	A	76.374
Orlando Cabrera	A	72.253
Brian Roberts	A	72.143
Yuniesky Betancourt	A	70.879
Placido Polanco	B	70.714
Jason Bartlett	B	69.780
Mike Aviles	B	69.780
Mark Derosa	B	67.857
Jose Lopez	B	67.143
Adrian Beltre	B	66.667
Robinson Cano	B	62.857
Ty Wigginton	B	62.585
Chone Figgins	B	62.585
Marco Scutaro	B	62.088
Scott Rolen	B	61.905
Ben Zobrist	B	59.341
Carlos Guillen	B	59.184
Nick Punto	B	58.791
Erick Aybar	None	57.692
Bobby Crosby	None	56.593
Alexei Ramirez	None	56.429
Akinori Iwamura	None	55.714
Julio Lugo	None	54.945
Brendan Harris	None	54.121
Aaron Hill	None	51.429
Alexi Casilla	None	50.714
Ramon Santiago	None	50.549
Maicer Izturis	None	50.549
Brandon Inge	None	49.660
Brian Buscher	None	46.939
Howie Kendrick	None	46.429
Russell Branyan	None	46.259
Cesar Izturis	None	45.055
Asdrubal Cabrera	None	45.000
Alberto Callaspo	None	45.000
Mark Ellis	None	44.286
Joe Crede	None	43.537
Jose Bautista	None	39.456
Nick Green	None	39.286
Nomar Garciaparra	None	37.912
Willy Aybar	None	37.415
Robb Quinlan	None	32.653
Jed Lowrie	None	32.418
Jamey Carroll	None	32.143
Ronny Cedeno	None	32.143
Chris Getz	None	31.786
Omar Vizquel	None	31.044
Adam Everett	None	30.220
John Mcdonald	None	28.022
Brandon Wood	None	24.490
Eric Chavez	None	24.490
Elvis Andrus	None	23.901
Brent Lillibridge	None	23.352
Josh Barfield	None	19.643
Tony Graffanino	None	17.500
Ramiro Pena	None	16.667
Matt Tuiasosopo	None	15.986
Gil Velazquez	None	14.560
Josh Fields	None	14.286
Jayson Nix	None	6.786

Name	Type	Score
Roy Halladay	A	94.035
C.C. Sabathia	A	93.158
Cliff Lee	A	91.316
Daisuke Matsuzaka	A	89.298
Ervin Santana	A	88.596
A.J. Burnett	A	88.333
Jon Lester	A	86.228
Zack Greinke	A	85.702
Scott Kazmir	A	84.211
John Lackey	A	83.509
Felix Hernandez	A	83.421
James Shields	A	81.842
Gil Meche	A	81.754
Scott Baker	A	81.404
Gavin Floyd	A	80.965
Joe Saunders	A	79.737
Mark Buehrle	A	79.561
John Danks	A	79.211
Vicente Padilla	A	77.544
Josh Beckett	B	75.000
Andy Pettitte	B	75.000
Jeremy Guthrie	B	74.912
Armando Galarraga	B	73.333
Justin Duchscherer	B	73.333
Matt Garza	B	71.930
Kevin Millwood	B	70.526
Shaun Marcum	B	70.175
Kevin Slowey	B	69.737
Tim Wakefield	B	69.649
Erik Bedard	B	68.246
Edwin Jackson	B	67.719
Jesse Litsch	B	65.789
Nick Blackburn	B	64.211
Andy Sonnanstine	B	64.123
Glen Perkins	B	63.246
Jered Weaver	B	62.632
John Smoltz	B	62.105
Justin Verlander	B	61.842
Fausto Carmona	None	57.632
Kyle Davies	None	55.702
Chien-Ming Wang	None	54.386
Jose Contreras	None	54.035
Dustin Mcgowan	None	53.860
Dana Eveland	None	53.684
Brian Bannister	None	49.123
Jarrod Washburn	None	47.982
Brandon Mccarthy	None	47.544
Brad Penny	None	46.667
Sidney Ponson	None	46.140
Sean Gallagher	None	45.965
Scott Lewis	None	45.439
Mark Hendrickson	None	45.351
Ricky Romero	None	44.123
Nate Robertson	None	44.123
Dallas Braden	None	43.860
Bartolo Colon	None	43.684
Jeremy Bonderman	None	43.684
Aaron Laffey	None	43.509
Matt Harrison	None	43.333
Jake Westbrook	None	43.246
Scott Feldman	None	40.526
Rich Hill	None	40.000
Francisco Liriano	None	39.737
Carlos Silva	None	39.474
Carl Pavano	None	39.211
Brad Bergesen	None	38.772
Scott Richmond	None	38.509
Kason Gabbard	None	35.526
Adam Eaton	None	34.912
Radhames Liz	None	34.825
Koji Uehara	None	34.561
Eddie Bonine	None	31.930
David Purcey	None	30.088
Dustin Moseley	None	29.912
Zach Jackson	None	27.895
Jeff Niemann	None	26.667
Josh Outman	None	25.088
Eric Hurley	None	24.211
Jason Jennings	None	20.877
Ryan Feierabend	None	20.351
Rick Porcello	None	19.825
Bryan Bullington	None	15.789
Kris Benson	None	15.789
Dontrelle Willis	None	14.211
Trevor Cahill	None	14.123
Matt Palmer	None	13.070
Chris Jakubauskas	None	12.544
Alfredo Simon	None	11.930
Brett Anderson	None	11.842
Miguel Gonzalez	None	3.947
Steven Jackson	None	3.947
Casey Janssen	None	3.947
Kelvim Escobar	None	3.947

RP:

Name	Type	Score
Mariano Rivera	A	89.027
Joe Nathan	A	87.146
Joakim Soria	A	84.144
Jonathan Papelbon	A	83.575
Kerry Wood	A	82.505
Scott Downs	A	80.435
Joey Devine	A	79.124
J.P. Howell	A	78.537
Matt Thornton	A	78.278
Jesse Carlson	A	77.157
Takashi Saito	A	76.329
Ramon S. Ramirez	A	75.190
Frank Francisco	A	74.810
Brian Fuentes	A	74.776
Dan Wheeler	A	74.327
Brian Bruney	A	73.361
Grant Balfour	A	73.257
Octavio Dotel	A	72.981
Manny Delcarmen	A	71.843
Bobby Jenks	A	71.670
Russ Springer	A	71.014
Jose Arredondo	A	70.531
Juan Cruz	A	69.427
Joba Chamberlain	A	68.944
Darren Oliver	A	66.529
Rafael Perez	B	66.322
Damaso Marte	B	66.184
Brandon Morrow	B	66.080
Hideki Okajima	B	65.666
Brian Shouse	B	65.321
B.J. Ryan	B	65.114
Scot Shields	B	63.112
Jim Johnson	B	62.595
Joe Nelson	B	62.491
Brad Ziegler	B	62.422
Troy Percival	B	62.146
Justin Masterson	B	61.836
Scott Linebrink	B	61.836
Joe Smith	B	59.386
George Sherrill	B	59.179
Jamey Wright	B	59.075
Andrew Bailey	B	58.972
Brian Tallet	B	58.937
Ryan Rowland-Smith	B	58.799
Luis Ayala	B	58.558
Jesse Crain	B	58.558
Jose Veras	B	57.074
Fernando Rodney	B	56.936
Rafael Betancourt	B	56.901
Jose Mijares	B	56.246
Matt Guerrier	None	55.349
Brandon Lyon	None	55.124
Eddie Guardado	None	54.883
Ron Mahay	None	54.555
Dennis Sarfate	None	54.486
C.J. Wilson	None	54.313
Phil Coke	None	54.037
Hunter Jones	None	53.468
Tony Sipp	None	53.468
Jensen Lewis	None	53.382
Edwar Ramirez	None	53.037
Roy Corcoran	None	52.174
Santiago Casilla	None	51.967
Chad Bradford	None	51.932
Doug Waechter	None	51.863
Craig Breslow	None	51.208
David Aardsma	None	51.208
Javier Lopez	None	51.139
Zach Miner	None	50.345
Jason Frasor	None	50.104
Anthony Reyes	None	49.137
Boof Bonser	None	49.103
Masahide Kobayashi	None	47.412
Robinson Tejeda	None	47.378
Justin Speier	None	47.188
Shawn Kelley	None	45.894
Matt Albers	None	45.583
Bobby Seay	None	44.651
Shawn Camp	None	43.979
Danys Baez	None	43.030
Kyle Farnsworth	None	42.685
Michael Wuertz	None	42.547
Jason Isringhausen	None	42.322
Brian Bass	None	42.236
Brandon League	None	41.201
Miguel Batista	None	41.063
D.J. Carrasco	None	40.787
Jerry Blevins	None	40.580
Joaquin Benoit	None	40.442
Lance Cormier	None	40.407
Pat Neshek	None	40.062
Ryan Perry	None	39.562
Sean White	None	39.199
R.A. Dickey	None	39.165
Jonathan Albaladejo	None	38.544
Derek Holland	None	38.406
Jamie Walker	None	38.337
David Robertson	None	37.474
Bill Murphy	None	37.336
Dan Giese	None	36.991
Cesar Jimenez	None	36.680
Brian Duensing	None	36.473
Mark Lowe	None	35.335
John Bale	None	34.748
Josh Rupe	None	33.575
Dustin Nippert	None	33.299
Luis Mendoza	None	33.161
Joel Zumaya	None	32.781
Juan Rincon	None	30.141
Darren O'Day	None	28.865
Vinnie Chulk	None	27.019
Clayton Richard	None	26.743
Jason Bulger	None	25.155
Warner Madrigal	None	24.534
Chris Ray	None	23.257
Horacio Ramirez	None	21.601
Mike Macdougal	None	19.289
Rafael Rodriguez	None	17.495
Shane Loux	None	15.735
Philip Humber	None	11.111
Rich Thompson	None	9.403
Willie Eyre	None	9.213
Daniel Davidson	None	8.609
Kevin Jepsen	None	8.592
Juan Morillo	None	4.762
Anthony Claggett	None	3.847
Jack Egbert	None	3.520

A few notes:
I still count Magglio Ordonez as a free agent. His option hasn't vested yet, even though it likely will.

Remember, any marginal Type A free agent probably won't net the draft picks. Between the team's unwillingness to offer arbitration in a dampened free agent market and the player likely to accept any arbitration, there are a ton of obstacles to those draft picks.

Orlando Cabrera has a clause in his contract that he can't be offered arbitration if he's Type A.

Positions are calculated as of today. No effort is made to project what position somebody will have played the most games by the end of the year.

The rosters are weird. Last year I used ESPN's rosters, but they no longer have the active rosters on their site (Seriously, what good does a 40 man roster do?). I instead used CNNSI, but am going to have to change that. Off the top of my head, I see Phil Humber, Juan Miranda, and Jack Egbert (all demoted) as well as the late Nick Adenhart, who is definitely not on the Angels' roster. So if anybody knows of a place that updates rosters daily and accurately and can be imported via web query into excel, leave a comment. Thanks.

I'll shoot to have these in spreadsheet format with all sorts of friendly sorting tools, sometime next month. There's no rush, since the results are pretty insignificant right now. Leave any suggestions on presentation if you like.

Ninth Inning Thoughts

2009-04-22T05:52:00.002-04:00

Adam Everett used as a pinch hitter? Just because he can't hit, that does not mean he can be used in small ball situations.
Did I mention bringing Adam Everett on to bunt with no element of surprise is a bad move? Let Anderson's speed get him over to second and then have Everett (or Larish since you are taking the bat out of the batter's hands, does it really matter which side he comes from?). I'll repeat this until I'm blue in the face. Bunting a runner to second base is not sound strategy; bunting him to third base is!
Speaking of Anderson, the play in which he was picked off was a balk. It bothers me to no end that lefties are not called for balks on plays where they step toward home on a pickoff.

Verlander

2009-04-17T22:59:00.002-04:00

This is as good as JV has looked in a long time. High to mid 90's with nice command on the fastball and the curveball has been tight and well placed. This is nice to see.

Two Years

2009-04-16T18:28:00.002-04:00

Those who started reading this blog last year may wonder who the Brian is who died way too young in 2007. It was two years ago today that a coward senselessly took away the lives of over 30 Hokies, including Brian. For those who weren't around then, check out this post:

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2007/04/when-i-got-news-that-there-was-shooting.html

For some of his writings on this site, check out these:
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2006/11/gary-sheffield-to-tigers-what-does-it.html
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2006/08/trade-analysis-of-casey-to-tigers-well.html

Continue to RIP, bud.

RIP Mark the Bird

2009-04-13T21:30:00.003-04:00

It's a sad day for Tigers fans.

Being born in 1985, I never saw Mark Fidrych pitch until MLB Network showed him. I'd seen interviews over the years and was always fascinated. Most importantly, watching him pitch and hearing him speak put a smile on my face when I finally got to see it. It made me wish I was 15 years older so I could have experienced it.

Mark Fidrych was one of a kind, and he will be missed.

A Lot to Cover

2009-04-02T15:52:00.002-04:00

The Final Roster

You've heard by now Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry made the team. While some teams would hold them back to suppress their service time, the Tigers have never been a team to do that. I'll argue that they are making the right move here, as pitchers are unlikely to be as productive six years down the road.

Zach Miner, now to be nicknamed Lloyd Christmas (You mean there's still a chance!), enters the rotation. This is the right move.

To supplement the rotation, the Tigers are going with two long relievers. Eddie Bonine is a good fit as a long reliever as a control specialist. He may not eat the innings in a dominant manner, but he'll keep the other relievers fresh if the starter gets rocked. The same can be said for Nate Robertson, who is a starter waiting in the wings. I'm a fan of this move, as the Tigers have some flexibility now.

Juan Rincon, Perry, Bobby Seay, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney round out the pen. I love the use of the phrase "Opening Day Closer."

It looks like Jeff Larish has the last spot. That means Brent Clevlen could be traded or put through waivers before the season.

James Skelton

Skelton didn't make the Diamondbacks' roster. The Tigers, however, didn't want him back and negotiated a deal with Arizona for pitcher Brooks Brown. DTW has the rundown on Brown. It looks like a solid pick up. Once you see Toledo's rotation, you'll see why the Tigers wanted some depth.

Projected Standings

I am moving this weekend and won't have internet until next week. As such, I'll need to project this year's standings right now so I'm not cheating. I don't have time to run through

AL East:

1. Boston

2. Tampa Bay (WC)

3. New York

4. Toronto

5. Baltimore

AL Central:

1. Cleveland

2. Detroit

3. Chicago

4. Minnesota

5. Kansas City

AL West:

1. Oakland

2. Texas

3. Los Angeles

4. Seattle

NL East:

1. Atlanta

2. Philadelphia (WC)

3. New York

4. Florida

5. Washington

NL Central:

1. Chicago

2. St. Louis

3. Milwaukee

4. Cincinnati

5. Houston

6. Pittsburgh

NL West:

1. Los Angeles

2. Arizona

3. San Francisco

4. Colorado

5. San Diego

World Series: Tampa Bay over Chicago

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia

AL ROY: Travis Snider (Tons of good canididates here: Wieters, Price, Anderson, Cahill, etc.)

AL MOY: Bob Geren

NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum

NL ROY: Jordan Schafer

NL MOY: Bobby Cox

Bad Idea

2009-03-31T13:27:00.002-04:00

Well, when he was acquired I had this fear. Now, looking at today's spring lineup, it has come to fruition. Josh Anderson is leading off and playing left field with Curtis Granderson moving down in the lineup.

Curtis Granderson was a perfect table setter, with his numerous doubles and triples complementing the singles hitting Placido Polanco very well. Moving him down in the order, assuming 18 PA's per spot in the lineup, will mean that Granderson will bat roughly 72 fewer times than he would batting leadoff. Using PECOTA's projections, that's somewhere between 2 and 3 homeruns lost and between 26 and 27 total bases lost. Simply put, having Curtis Granderson batting leadoff allows the Tigers to maximize the amount of times one of their best hitters comes to the plate. Moving him down in the lineup is a bad idea. If the idea is to use Anderson as some kind of table setter, batting him ninth would make a ton of sense, if not for the platoon disadvantage created by having two lefties back to back.

However, it's possible that today's spring lineup is nothing to get worried about and it's just an attempt to allow Anderson to bat as often as possible in front of the Tigers' staff. Let's hope that's the case.

Great News!

2009-03-31T10:36:00.002-04:00

Hey Oh! Gary Sheffield is long gone. No longer is the DH spot being held down by a sore spot in the lineup. No longer will the Tigers have to put Gary Sheffield in the lineup when his injuries suggest he should be riding pine. No longer will Carlos Guillen have to sit when he can't play the field. No longer will... well, the same thing for Magglio Ordonez.

This is great news that can only be ruined if the Tigers come out and say they are giving Josh Anderson a starting gig.

Josh Anderson for Rudy Darrow

2009-03-30T15:55:00.002-04:00

The big news today is the Tigers' acquisition of Josh Anderson for reliever Rudy Darrow.

On the surface, this looks like an odd move. The Tigers have had somewhat of a roster crunch at the back end of the bat, and acquiring a player like Anderson, who is out of options, only excacerbates that flexibility. However, Anderson could be a quality fit for this team.

With the gimpy Carlos Guillen and potentially gimpy Magglio Ordonez patrolling the corner outfield spots, it would be nice to have not only somebody who can come in and pinch run for those guys, but can play some late inning defense as well.
I just addressed pinch running, but Anderson's a very good base stealer, who could provide an asset late in a close game.
With Curtis Granderson on the team, there's no risk of the manager falling in love with him and playing him everyday in center.
Rudy Darrow is just a basic relief prospect with a funky enough delivery to suggest he won't stay healthy long enough long term. The value given up is okay.
Clete Thomas can play every day instead of rotting on the bench. The same goes for Ryan Raburn, whose defensive liabilities have relegated him to trade bait.

This trade also could mean the end for Marcus Thames, whether he's injured, traded or released. Barring an injury to Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, or Magglio Ordonez, his talents are basically redundant.

On another note, I would really like to wish Dontrelle Willis the best. Even if the Anxiety Disorder isn't affecting him, it's not anything to mess with. His pitching goes to the backburner now as everybody tries to make sure everything is right upstairs with him.

A Feared Reunion

2009-03-30T09:45:00.003-04:00

In 2007, the Tampa Bay (then) Devil Rays had an awful season, going 66-96. As everybody knows by now, they turned that around very quickly, going 97-65 last season and going to the World Series.

Two years ago, one of their biggest problems was their bullpen. What leads they did have could not be held. According to the numbers at fangraphs, the Devil Rays had a -7.84 Win Probability Added total, meaning they cost their team something on the order of 15 or 16 wins over the course of that season.

Enter 2008, now called the Rays, Tampa Bay's relievers, put up a +9.30 total, meaning they helped their team win 18 or 19 times over the course of the season. Without including the effect that an improved defense and rotation had on their improved late inning pitching, the Rays' bullpen accounted for a roughly 30 win turnaround. Let's look at this 2007 bullpen and see if any of these names look familiar:

Name, Games
Gary Glover 67
Al Reyes 61
Brian Stokes 59
Shawn Camp 50
Juan Salas 34
Scott Dohmann 31
Casey Fossum 30
Dan Wheeler 25
Grant Balfour 22
Ruddy Lugo 11

A good chunk of the Rays' improvement came from gutting this dreadful pen. Stokes, Camp, Dohmann, Fossum, and Lugo were gone before the end of the calender year. Juan Salas missed much of last season with injury and visa issues before being cut this offseason. Glover and Reyes were phased out of the Rays' plans over the course of last year before being released during the summer months. Only Wheeler and Balfour stayed on board, and both have admittedly pitched well since this awful season.

Apparently, the Tigers have looked at this formula and think the way to build a succesful bullpen is through picking up as many castoffs as possible from the worst ever bullpen. This started with Gary Glover and Casey Fossum last year. These are names that many Tigers' fans would like to file away with the likes of Lino Urdaneta and Brian Maxcy after having failed miserably with the team last year. Finally rid of the short term crappiness that was Glover and Fossum, the offseason, Ruddy Lugo was signed to a minor league deal to eat some innings in Toledo. This was an acceptable role for a guy who really isn't that good.

I thought this was a coincidence for a while, and then I saw rumors that the Tigers were close to acquiring Brian Stokes, the worst pitcher in the worst bullpen ever, for Ryan Raburn. Yes, Raburn is part of a roster crunch, but he does have an option. Unless he was claimed on revocable waivers (because his debut was more than three years ago), he can be sent to Toledo to alleviate a roster crunch. It certainly helps to have capable players down there. But this isn't about Ryan Raburn. The fact is that the Tigers were ready to give up something more than a bucket of swept up sunflower seed shells for a 29 year old pitcher with a career 79 ERA+ in yet another attempt to recapture some of that 2007 Devil Rays magic.

Like with Rich Aurilia and Carl Pavano, consider this bullet dodged.

Stuck

2009-03-16T12:35:00.002-04:00

I know I promised top to bottom roster predictions, but I just could not come up with educated guesses for the rosters. Between numerous question marks with the Major League pitching staff and an unprecedented influx of players from Venezuela and the Independent Leagues, there are a lot of unique cases in this year's minor leagues that make things very hard to project. I guess every now and then it's okay to just say "I don't know."

On an unrelated note, I have been taking a bit of a break from baseball. Between moving and starting a job in three weeks and obsessively following college basketball lately, there hasn't been much content here of late. For that I apologize. However, I will be posting on a new sister site at Boilers Thoughts when college sports related content comes to mind.

Congratulations Yurendell

2009-03-10T23:45:00.002-04:00

Tigers farmhand Yurendell de Caster had the game winning hit for the Netherlands as they beat the Dominican Republic for the second time in the World Baseball Classic. This was a classic game that involved the underdog Dutch team scoring two off of Carlos Marmol in the bottom of the 11th inning to win 2-1. Just an incredible game. Congratulations go out to de Caster!

Projecting the Roster - Toledo Mudhens

2009-02-27T14:13:00.003-05:00

Before plowing on with the Toledo roster, we need to set some ground rules with the players who can't be sent directly to the minors, for whatever reason. On the pitching side of the ball, this includes Dontrelle Willis, who has options but can't be sent to the minors without his approval, and Macay McBride, who is out of options and must clear waivers. On the offensive side, Mike Hessman missed the projected cut and is out of options. Brent Clevlen, as well, is out of options and must clear waivers.

The timing of when these players are cut makes a difference. Because clearing waivers take three days and being designated for assignment can take ten, a player DFA'd the day before opening day may not be available on opening day.

However, I'm just going to go ahead and assume that each player will be available for the minor league rosters. Most players who are out of options clear waivers during the season, because the claiming team also must keep them on the Major League roster. Hessman has cleared waivers in the past, and I don't see much of a demand for Clevlen* on the waiver wire. McBride could have issues clearing, but given the lack of demand for lefty relievers in the free agent market, I'm not sure he'd be claimed. That brings us to Willis, who was just touched up for four runs in his inning plus of work in his spring debut. The assumption I am making is that he will accept optional assignment because I project him to continue to struggle this spring. I still haven't ruled out the possibility of the Tigers eating his salary.

*On a side note, I listened to yesterday's game and the Nationals' radio broadcaster repeatedly pronounced Clevlen's name with a short E, making a point that it is not pronounced like the city. Except for the fact that it is. I thought it was funny. I would also like to thank Joe Posnanski for popularizing the asterisk induced sidenote. It's a nice touch.

One more thing, I am assuming James Skelton is not returning. While the Diamondbacks' inability to trade Miguel Montero hurts his chances of making the roster, I am still projecting him to stick with them.

So, with all of these players available, here's an initial projection for the Toledo roster.

SP:
Eddie Bonine
Danny Christensen
Chris Lambert
Ruddy Lugo
Dontrelle Willis

RP:
Rudy Darrow
Jon Huber
Macay McBride
Fu-Te Ni
Clay Rapada
Nick Regilio
Juan Rincon

C:
Dusty Ryan
Dane Sardinha

IF:
Don Kelly
Mike Hessman
Michael Hollimon
Jeff Larish
William Rhymes
Danny Worth

OF:
Brent Clevlen
Timo Perez
Wilkin Ramirez
Clete Thomas

A lot can change between now and opening day. In the rotation, Christensen is the only 2008 Erie starter to make the jump. I had to cut the relievers down from 15 to 7. That could have been done in any way. Some notable missing players include Scott Williamson (projected retirement), Brendan Wise/Matt Rusch (Erie), Jason Miller (lefty overload), and Ron Chiviacci (projected cut). I included players like Jon Huber and Nick Regilio, because late signings tend to be more likely to make the team.

On the offensive side of the ball, I went with 12 players because Toledo has historically done this. Don Kelly makes the team because of his flexibility. However, with Rhymes, Worth, and Hollimon here, Kelly may be an odd man out. I initially had Casper Wells pencilled in, but there didn't appear to be enough playing time to go around for him, and he seems most likely among these outfielders to be held back in Erie. Remember, Brent Clevlen still has to clear waivers, so things can change.

Projecting the Roster - Position Players

2009-02-25T15:00:00.000-05:00

While the pitching staff is up in the air, the position players are a little more settled. Fortunately, there is some competition which should help to motivate these guys.

There are 13 spots that are likely to be available for pitchers. Simple math will confirm that there are four bench spots. With Brandon Inge moving to third base, the team will not be able to save a roster spot by having a backup catcher play the infield and outfield as well, so there will likely be two catchers, at least five infielders, a designated hitter, four outfielders, and one other player.

Catchers:
Gerald Laird and Matt Treanor probably have these spots locked up. Dusty Ryan and Dane Sardinha are the other two catchers in camp with major league experience, and are likely headed for Toledo. Jeff Kunkel, Alex Avila, and Max St. Pierre are all in camp as extra catchers to help out with all the pitchers in camp.

Infielders:
Miguel Cabrera, Placido Polanco, Adam Everett, and Brandon Inge are clearly the starters. Ramon Santiago also seems to have a spot locked up at the backup middle infielder. Michael Hollimon is likely to be ready for the start of the season, but his option status and defensive weaknesses likely have him headed to Toledo. Cale Iorg is in big league camp with a chance to impress. He's likely headed to Erie. Scott Sizemore, William Rhymes, and Don Kelly are also in camp. Sizemore is recovering from a wrist injury that wiped out most of last season. He's probably getting a look because Polanco's contract is up after the season and the Tigers want to see if they can fill the void internally. Rhymes and Kelly are longshots as well.

That leaves Jeff Larish, Mike Hessman, and Ryan Raburn. I'll have more on them after the outfielders.

Outfielders:
Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson, and Magglio Ordonez are the starters. Gary Sheffield is slotted as the DH. Longshots for a spot include Casper Wells, Wilkin Ramirez, and hopefully Alexis Gomez. Brent Clevlen is out of options, but is close to a longshot as well. Clete Thomas is recovering from Tommy John Surgery, and I'm projecting him to start on a DL. Timo Perez is back and projects to head to Toledo. That leaves Marcus Thames, who probably has a spot. That's 24 players on the roster, and we can talk about the last three now.

Jeff Larish played some third last year, and is spending time in the outfield now. Ryan Raburn can play second and third base as well as all three outfield positions, but none of those positions particularly well. Mike Hessman has a reputation as a top defensive third baseman, and his power can't be questioned. Unless Clevlen has a great spring, you'd have to think those three guys are the ones in the hunt for the last spot. With a switch hitter in left field and right handed hitters at third, first, designated hitter, and right field, could the edge be given to Larish? Or could Ryan Raburn get a job giving Jim Leyland a platoon option in center field? I'm going to go with Ryan Raburn in the final spot for now.

Here's the projected position players as of today:

C
Gerald Laird
Matt Treanor

IF
Miguel Cabrera
Adam Everett
Brandon Inge
Placido Polanco
Ryan Raburn
Ramon Santiago

OF
Curtis Granderson
Carlos Guillen
Magglio Ordonez
Gary Sheffield
Marcus Thames

Despite the glowing words for Dontrelle Willis and Macay McBride, I'm going to keep the pitchers the same for now. Toledo's roster will be next.

Tigers in the World Baseball Classic

2009-02-25T12:25:00.002-05:00

The World Baseball Classic Rosters were announced yesterday. Here are the Tigers' players:

USA:
Curtis Granderson

Venezuela:
Miguel Cabrera
Magglio Ordonez
Carlos Guillen
Armando Galarraga

Chinese Tapei:
Fu-Te Ni

Australia:
Andrew Graham
Brendan Wise

Netherlands:
Yurendell de Caster

The Tigers' four best hitters will be on display during this tournament. I'm a bit weary about Galarraga being on an abnormal schedule, especially with his injury history and large innings jump last year. I will certainly be keeping an eye out for Ni, as I am particularly curious about what he brings to the table. Brendan Wise is another dark horse arm (probably headed for Erie) known for his sinker. Graham and de Caster are roster filler at best.

Media Guides:
The Tigers have posted their media guide for the 2009 season here. They've also posted the 2008 guide, as well as archived guides from 1960-1982. I've been digging through this for information, which is why there has been somewhat of a delay in the roster projections. I plan to pick those up with the MLB position players this afternoon.

Who Shamed the Game?

2009-02-13T10:14:00.003-05:00

I've only got a couple of seconds today, but I wanted to post Bud Selig's comment on A-Rod with my immediate response, and then expound when I have time next week.

"What Alex did was wrong and he will have to live with the damage he has done to his name and reputation," the commissioner said Thursday, three days after the Yankees star admitted using banned substances from 2001 to 2003 while playing for Texas.

"While Alex deserves credit for publicly confronting the issue, there is no valid excuse for using such substances, and those who use them have shamed the game," Selig said.

I wish I had more time to rip Bud a new one. Instead, I'll just say F#$@ You, hypocrite!

Projecting the Rosters - The Bullpen

2009-02-10T10:31:00.005-05:00

Now to the Achilles heal of last year's team. How bad was the bullpen? Their -4.35 WPA suggests they cost the Tigers approximately nine wins. While the defense certainly hurt, the inability of the starters to get deep into games is not as big of a problem as I had assumed. The team finished in the middle of the pack in starter's innings.

The bullpen competition is wide open this year. In doing these projections, I am going to assume five right-handers and two southpaws. This has been the standard setup since Leyland took over the reigns three years ago. Listed among the candidates is every pitcher in camp not among the projected starters with three exceptions. Eddie Bonine, Jon Kibler, and Rick Porcello are not listed because they appear to be exclusively starters at this point.

Redundant Players, already mentioned with the starters:
Kyle Bloom, L: A rule 5 pick, so the Tigers will want to be extra sure there's no potential before sending him back to Pittsburgh. I haven't heard anything about Bloom in a while, but you'd have to imagine a strong spring would leave him as the second lefty, much to the chagrin of Macay McBride and Clay Rapada.

Alfredo Figaro, R: Hasn't pitched above Lakeland and hasn't succeeded above West Michigan. Figaro will need to have turned a few corners before getting a bullpen job this year. I'd say he's likely destined for a rotation in Erie or Lakeland, or if they want to get him on a fast track, to relief.

Chris Lambert, R: Possibly a long reliever candidate. I don't see room for him right now. With three options remaining, I don't think the Tigers would mind using one to send him to Toledo to start games.

Zach Miner, R: As I mentioned yesterday, Miner is still a candidate to start. If one of Robertson and Willis show something in the spring, Miner could be off to the bullpen to be a starter in waiting. It confounds some people, but Miner still has two options years left just in case. No team gets 162 starts from their opening day rotation; very few get 120. He will get a chance to start games, but can be valuable as a long man.

Fu-Te Ni, L: Another wild card this spring. A strong camp could have Ni making those of us who find Monty Python unfunny and annoying want to stay away from Comerica Park. As it stands, I'm projecting him for Toledo, because unlike three other lefties in competition for bullpen jobs, he can be sent there without being lost.

Ryan Perry, R: Hey look! Another complete unknown. It's not hard to forsee a scenario where Perry makes the big league club out of spring. However, until that happens, I'm going to have him slotted for Erie.

Dontrelle Willis, L: I get the feeling Willis will either be fully recovered and in the rotation or struggling to throw strikes and in limbo. I don't see him in the bullpen right now.

Full time relievers:
Rudy Darrow, R: Darrow may be one of those "Use him while you've got him" guys. The sidearmer has a very painful looking motion, one that has already sent him under the knife in 2005. Take a look at this picture to see what I mean.

Stop me if you've heard this before. Darrow is a candidate for the pen if he impresses the right people this spring. The mere fact that there is competition for the bullpen spots tells me things will improve this year.

Freddy Dolsi, R: After a meteoric rise to the bullpen last year, you have to wonder if Dolsi did enough to stick around. Once again, a lot will depend on his spring. We'll pencil him in for now.

Casey Fien, R: After almost making the team out of spring last year, Fien put up a fine season in Erie and Toledo. Since being drafted in 2006 in 164.2 IP, Fien has struck out 173 batters and walked just 34. I'm sold.

Brandon Lyon, R: I don't particularly care who's closer. Getting outs in the 7th and 8th innings is important too. That said, Lyon seems to be the front-runner for the closer spot. He's an upgrade on Todd Jones, and is as close as a lock as a reliever can be.

Macay McBride, L: Kyle Bloom will get a lot of talk as a Rule 5 draftee, but Macay McBride, being out of options, can't be sent to Toledo if he misses the team either. Recovering from Tommy John Surgery, the DL could be an option for McBride if there isn't room for him. I haven't heard anything about how his rehab is going.

Clay Rapada, L: I'm racking my brain for reasons that Casey Fossum was on the roster over Rapada last year. With one option year remaining, Toledo could be his destination again while Bloom and McBride fight over the second lefty spot.

Juan Rincon, R: The former Twin signed a minor league deal and will have to show something in order to make the team. The last two (post-steroid) years have been pretty ugly for Rincon. I don't see him making the squad without a major resurgence or some Leyland Veteran Fetish.

Fernando Rodney, R: It's February 10, and Fernando Rodney hasn't had an injury yet in 2009. Another "lock" for the bullpen unless that shoulder acts up. He's got almost two months, so I'd say that's fairly likely.

Bobby Seay, L: Probably a lock as the bullpen's primary lefty. Seay has been solid in the bullpen, but you would ideally like to see some dominance. You have to pencil him in for now.

Zach Simons, R: Lumped in with Perry, Fien, and Darrow as rookie relievers with a shot with a nice Spring. A word of warning with Simons: That .232 BABIP in Lakeland last year was pretty fluky. He may not be the pitcher his surface numbers in Lakeland suggest.

Scott Williamson, R: Scott Williamson is a great pitcher when he's healthy. Unfortunately, he hasn't been healthy since 2003. Matt Mantei, Part 3, I think he retires during the spring.

Joel Zumaya, R: Cutting to the chase, I don't think Zumaya will be ready for the season. I'm projecting him for the DL, hoping that the Tigers take it easy on him. Zumaya is Exhibit A in why you should use big arms while you've got them.

So, in summary

R-Freddy Dolsi
R-Casey Fien
R-Brandon Lyon
R-Zach Miner
R-Fernando Rodney
L-Kyle Bloom
L-Bobby Seay

Lyon, Rodney, Miner (assuming he's not in the rotation), and Seay appear to be locks. I've got Bloom in as the second lefty because he can't be demoted (and McBride can go on the DL). Dolsi's got a job to lose, and Casey Fien seems to be the closest to MLB ready among the rookie candidates. Zumaya and McBride start on the DL. Willis accepts his assignment to Toledo or Lakeland. The rest will go into the minor league pool of candidates as we work our way down.

This is a wide open competition, and I will be adjusting this frequently based on some of the news from Lakeland. The position players are next.

Figuring out the Opening Day Rosters

2009-02-09T10:24:00.003-05:00

Typically, I like having organizational roster projections by this point in the year. This year, however, it has been difficult to get going on these projections. A few factors are playing into this delay. First, the Tigers have so many question marks among the pitchers. While in recent years, the roles have been pretty much defined, that is not the case this year. Several pitchers are returning from injuries, ineffectiveness or both, and it is hard to project which twelve will be on the roster. Second, the free agent market has left me believe there still may be more moves to be made. However, it appears as if Brandon Lyon will be the last move to affect the Tigers at the Major League level (If Ruddy Lugo gets a call, this team is in trouble).

To start, I wanted to look at the starting pitchers in Big League camp. Rather than start with the seven who are presumed to be in competition for a starting job, I will look at every player who could be a starting pitcher this year. This is to ensure that nobody is being left behind. In alphabetical order:

Kyle Bloom: Not thought of as a starting candidate, but has been predominantly a starter in the minors. It was widely reported that he took some major steps in the right direction in 2008, and it showed in his split statistics. Bloom is a long shot, but a strong spring could land him in the bullpen. If he impresses the Tigers, they will likely do what they can to keep him on the roster this year.

Jeremy Bonderman: All of the articles on Bonderman are glowing. (Which articles this time of year aren't glowing?) If he has indeed regained his velocity, he is halfway to returning to the pitcher he was in 2006 and the first half of 2007. The other half, of course, is the command of his fastball. He needs to get ahead of the count in order to fully utilize that slider. I've got Bonderman pencilled into the rotation. This will be the case until there is some bad news in his recovery. Many pitchers have recoverred fully from his condition.

Eddie Bonine: Now on a spring invite after being sent outright to Toledo last week, Bonine is also a long shot. Of primary concern for Bonine will be ensuring that he returns from his torn lat injury without hurting himself in other ways. Two recent torn lat recoveries have not ended well. Ben Sheets tore his lat muscle in August, 2005 and got off to a slow start in 2006, missing some time with shoulder tendinitis. Also, Chad Cordero was diagnosed with a torn lat last year, but ended up with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Hopefully Bonine can recover and take some steps forward this year. If he does, he may be a more formidable emergency option over the summer.

Alfredo Figaro: Figaro is listed in the name of completeness. He's probably not a serious candidate, but he's a starting pitcher (for now) and will be in camp. During the Skelton rants, I took my fair share of shots at Figaro, so we'll keep those to a minimum now. Even for the bullpen, Figaro is a long shot at this point.

Armando Galarraga: Buster Olney, last week, said Galarraga is a candidate for the rotation. Either Olney is way ahead of the curve and realizes how lucky some of Galarraga's numbers were or he is clueless as to the role that Galarraga played on this team last year. Given some of his Baseball Tonight stints that I have seen, I'd lean toward the latter. Galarraga, despite being one of the few candidates with options, will have to blow up this spring to avoid the rotation. He's not a lock, but he's not in competition.

Count me as one who is not at all excited to see Galarraga's name on Venezuela's provisional World Baseball Classic roster. A pitcher with a history of elbow problems coming off a career high in innings needs to be under his team's care in Spring Training.

Edwin Jackson: I still believe this is a darkhorse closer candidate. This runs contrary to everything that Leyland and Dombrowski have said about him since the trade. It just seemed that a hard throwing pitcher with iffy numbers and control issues could do well in relief. If all of the candidates recover, I wouldn't rule that out. As it stands now, Jackson is slated for the rotation, and I'll have him pencilled in, ignoring my speculative side.

Jon Kibler: The Tigers' 2008 Minor League pitcher of the year was rewarded with this invite, but it's very hard to see him on the team this year. I'd imagine a strong spring would merely lead to Kibler skipping Lakeland this year.

Chris Lambert: Did not impress scouts in Toledo. Despite the fine season last year, he's got his work cut out to crack the rotation. The troubling cup of coffee with the big club is made better by a ton of unearned runs which would have made his ERA even worse with a different official scorer. I'll include Lambert with the bullpen candidates.

Zach Miner: Miner has been somewhat forgotten since the Edwin Jackson acquisition. I like Miner a lot better as a starter, but Jim Leyland disagrees. Miner is certainly a candidate, but his status probably depends on the recoveries of Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis.

Fu-Te Ni: The import from Chinese Taipai, Ni's a bit of an unknown. I include him with the starters just in case, but it seems like everything points to him heading to the pen. It will be interesting if he chooses to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic or try to make an impression on the Tigers' brass.

Ryan Perry: Included for completion. I don't think he's a candidate for the rotation. It appears as if Perry is destined for relief and could move quickly. I'll have him with the reliever candidates. A lot depends on this spring.

Rick Porcello: There's some talk that he could crack the team. I'd think a lot would have to go wrong in order for there to be a spot for him right off the bat, however.

Nate Robertson: Recovering from an off year, this is a huge spring for Robertson. I get the feeling improved defense from Curtis Granderson and the shortstop position could go a long way for him. All of the fluff pieces talk about Nate getting in shape. Hopefully that translates.

Justin Verlander: Probably the only lock* in the rotation. I'd go into a discussion about how much his numbers would have looked if he had better teammates last year, but this would take a while. It's true, though, that his offense, defense, and bullpens failed him on numerous occassions. That 11-17 4.84 line should probably look more like 17-11 3.84. Then again, if you are reading this blog, you probably know how flawed W-L ERA is when evaluating pitchers.

*When you are dealing with people throwing baseball overhand at 90+ mph, there is no such thing as a pure lock. Injuries happen.

Dontrelle Willis: The fluff pieces on Willis are in full force. I won't buy it until he can go a few Spring Training innings without a walk or wild pitch. I don't see him cracking the rotation as things stand right now. Luckily, these projections are fluid enough that we can adjust for that later in the spring.

Tentative Projections:
In alphabetical order (I hate arguments over rotation numbers. They don't matter!), here is the projected rotation as of February 9:

Jeremy Bonderman
Armando Galarraga
Edwin Jackson
Nate Robertson
Justin Verlander

Robertson's spot is probably the most tenuous. He's helped by his contract and the fact that he stunk in relief last year. This means Zach Miner is projected to be headed to the pen for the time being. As for Willis, we'll move him with the relief candidates, but he could be headed to the minor leagues. Bear in mind that my projection is that Willis will not regain his control and will not be in a position to refuse his assignment. If he pitches well this spring, he has a rotation spot.

Speaking of Orlando Cabrera

2009-02-03T11:33:00.004-05:00

I found this interesting nugget on mlbtraderumors:

Waiting until after the June draft could make sense for Cabrera - he'd wipe out the draft pick problem, probably still get $2MM, and won't get Type A status again.

It's an interesting thought. Cabrera could wait until June and lose two months of stats in an attempt to lose Type A Status, but would it work? Before digging in, let's take a look at the shortstop rankings from last season:

Michael Young (A)	88.000
Orlando Cabrera (A)	86.000
Derek Jeter (A)	84.000
Jhonny Peralta (A)	82.286
Edgar Renteria (A)	79.429
Carlos Guillen (B)	68.000

To check, I will remove Cabrera's 2008 numbers from Opening Day through June 15 to see how his ranking looks.

Michael Young (A)		88.571
Derek Jeter (A)		85.714
Jhonny Peralta (A)		83.429
Edgar Renteria (A)		81.143
Orlando Cabrera (A)		75.429
Carlos Guillen (B)		68.000

Wow. The two months would not have done the trick for Cabrera, as he still would have been a Type A free agent.

What if Cabrera, with his actual stats, had been in the National League?

Jimmy Rollins (A)	85.185
Troy Tulowitzki (A)	81.481
Hanley Ramirez (A)	79.894
Jose Reyes (A)	78.307
Orlando Cabrera (A)	78.307
Miguel Tejada (A)	75.132
J.J. Hardy (B)	67.725

He would have had a much weaker hold on a Type A spot, but would have retained it. What about with his numbers through June 15 removed?

Jimmy Rollins (A)	85.185
Troy Tulowitzki (A)	82.011
Hanley Ramirez (A)	80.952
Jose Reyes (A)	79.365
Miguel Tejada (A)	76.190
J.J. Hardy (B)	68.783
Orlando Cabrera (B)	68.254

He becomes a Type B. There is no doubt that there is a disparity between the shortstops in the American League and National League. It is also likely that this will grow. With Rollins, Tulowitzki, Ramirez, and Reyes in their prime and other young starters like Stephen Drew, J.J. Hardy, and Yunel Escobar coming on, the National League figures to have stronger shortstops for the foreseeable future. Also, with almost all of the projected starters for 2009 putting up solid and full 2008 seasons, a player like Cabrera would have a very hard time rising to the Type A's.

In addition, the American League 2009 crop of shortstops could be even weaker than 2008 as far as the Elias rankings go. In Boston, Anaheim, Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, Toronto, and Baltimore, there are competitions for jobs or non contributors from 2008 slated to play in 2009. What does this mean to these rankings? Quite simply, no shortstops will be racking up counting stats. In addition, Carlos Guillen is off the position for good, while Michael Young is confirmed to be leaving the position and Johnny Peralta could be right behind him. While Young and Peralta will still be in next year's rankings, they would be missing out on total chances at shortstop, killing their Elias Ranking like what happened to Carlos Guillen in 2008. Finally, the core group of American League shortstops, Jeter and Young, are in a state of decline and could see their numbers continue to drop in 2009. In short, it would not be unlikely to see a very average to below average player who plays almost every game in 2008-2009 rise to Type A status among American League shortstops. This means somebody like Jason Bartlett or Yuniesky Betancourt could be Type A, and Orlando Cabrera would almost assuredly be as well even after signing late.

So, my advice for Orlando Cabrera: If you want to avoid Type A status next offseason, sign with a National League team. Obviously, this is easier said than done, given that there aren't any openings in the senior circuit.

Dumbest Thing Said Ever in History

2009-02-03T07:00:00.003-05:00

On MLB Network, discussing "Which player is most deserving of getting 100% of the Hall of Fame vote"

"Lee Smith. He retired as the all time saves leader."
-Mitch Williams

I take that back...

"Orlando Cabrera is a superstar."
-Barry Larkin

Elias Updates

2009-02-02T10:54:00.003-05:00

I've found all of the errors in last years rankings, and this year's should be much much closer, if not dead accurate. To summarize where some of the errors came from and what has been done to fix them:

Suspended/bereavement/restricted time does not count towards the DL adjustment. All of this time is ignored. In addition, players on those lists on August 31 are not included in the rankings. Notable among the bereaved players was Casey Kotchman, who was not scored in this year's rankings.
Duplicate Names: These are a pain. Rather than use the unique ID's that are available, I opted to index the players by name, trying to manually adjust. This led to incorrect rankings for Ramon Ramirez, Tony Pena, and Edgar Gonzalez. Luckily, the Chris Youngs and Ryan Brauns didn't create any problems. I've got Macros to help identify them by middle initial. This will be solved next year.
For whatever reason, when importing stats into Excel, I had problems with Jarrod Saltalamacchia's super long name and had to input his numbers by hand. His stats were in six different places (07 AL hitting/fielding, 08 AL hitting/fielding, 07 NL hitting/fielding) and I simply typed in his stats wrong in one of those places, throwing off his ranking.
I've already mentioned disabled list time in a previous post, but the DL adjustment, rather than being an estimation like last year, is perfect. In addition, I've also learned that not all retroactive dates are included in the press releases. The best way to calculate DL time is to find out that a player is on the DL and then go to the game logs to find out how many days he missed.
Relievers: I was furthest off on relievers. This is for a multitude of reasons.
First, the incorrect DL adjustment for players over 60 days masked a lot of problems. I had assumed this was the primary reason, and with so many players, they were bound to be off.
Second, I was using the wrong stats! I had correctly identified them and matched up the denominator in the previous rankings, but in setting up the spreadsheet, I left winning percentage included. Winning percentage is not used. This was inexcusable. For what it's worth, those who know the formula and read the Freep article probably got a good laugh, because I cited winning percentage as an area where Kyle Farnsworth could pick up Type B status. Whoops!
Finally, for some reason I was DL adjusting the IP/H category. This led to the overrating of some relievers with around 60 days of DL time. This is how Jamie Wright ended up as high as he did. Again, this was another boneheaded mistake, but it is caught in time for next year's rankings.

As for the upcoming season, the tentative plan is to have more frequently updated rankings with an embedded spreadsheet somewhere on this site. If I were to guess, I would say they would start around May.

Brandon Lyon

2009-01-24T15:36:00.003-05:00

After the rumors have been swirling since the beginning of free agency, the Tigers appear to have finally signed Brandon Lyon.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Lee points out that Lyon had several clean outings, while Billfer points out that he was very unlucky on balls in play, specifically ground balls.

The fact that he is coming from the NL West scares me. Until the addition of Manny Ramirez, the offenses in that division were dreadful across the board. He was getting disproportionate playing time against offensive juggernauts Colorado, San Diego, San Francisco, and the pre-Manny Dodgers. How does this play out in his splits?

vs. NL West: 133 PA, .291/.316/.425
vs. Others: 132 PA, .311/.343/.492
vs. NL West minus Dodgers: 99 PA, .277/.303/.372

The splits weren't as drastic as I had figured (I looked them up after writing the preceding paragraph). Still, this is something to be weary about heading into this season. Moving from the National League to the American League is also likely to lead to some sort of statistical decline for Lyon.

I have seen some speculation that his late season slide may be the sign of an injury. While I don't have pitching data by appearance, it doesn't appear as if his velocity or control took much of a dive last year.

What this move gives the Tigers is a semi-reliable bullpen arm. This will prevent them from forcing Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya into late innings when they aren't healthy and effective, and will reduce the need to rush some of the relief prospects before they are ready. It's good to see the Tigers addressing the bullpen.

To make room on the roster, Eddie Bonine was designated for assignment. For those who wondered why James Skelton and others were left off the roster while Bonine remained in place, this is why. You need players who can slip through waivers when additions are made. Skelton is still less likely to stick with Arizona than he would if he could be claimed and sent to the minors. Bonine will likely clear waivers, and won't be a huge loss if he doesn't.

Building a Bullpen Follow-up

2009-01-22T14:42:00.003-05:00

I've been out of town the past few days, so I didn't have time to quickly point out that the Tigers have signed Juan Rincon and Scott Williamson to minor league deals. If either of these guys can reclaim their old form, these are worthwhile signings. If they don't, so long as they don't get playing time they don't deserve, this won't hurt.

Still getting caught up, I saw the Tigers signed Bronson Sardinha. He's pretty much a minor league outfielder at this point, but I wanted to post two little bits about him from his wikipedia page.

His middle name is Kiheimahanaomauiakeo.
He was named after Charles Bronson.

It seems Dane was keeping their parents busy enough that they had some fun naming him.

Building a Bullpen

2009-01-19T22:26:00.003-05:00

I just wanted to take a look at what Cleveland has done since last July. They, too, had a bullpen that cost their team a lot of games this year. Rather than sitting around sucking their thumbs, they have addressed the issue, and started doing so at the trading deadline (A look back at this past year's Rays' pen suggests building ahead of time is a wise move)

Acquired in Trades:
Zach Jackson*
Jon Meloan*
Anthony Reyes*
Joe Smith

Major League Free Agents:
Kerry Wood
Carl Pavano*

Minor League Free Agents:
Greg Aquino
Matt Herges
Kirk Saarloos
Jack Cassel

*Possible starters

I'm not going to sit here and tell you these guys are world beaters, but nature of relievers is that several are going to have down years or get hurt. Having strength in numbers is key, and the 2009 Central Division favorites have now added several players to the mix to their already young relief corps to fight for a job not only in Spring Training but throughout the season. To top it off, top prospect Adam Miller seems ready to join the team's bullpen. Cleveland will not be hurting for relief help this season.

It seems to me that the Tigers have spent so much time focused on finding somebody who racked up saves between 2002 and 2006 that they have forgotten to address the rest of the bullpen. While there are plenty of players who finished last year in A ball who could be moving quickly, 2009 seems to be a bit too soon for the likes of Perry, Satterwhite, Jacobson, and the rest. There is still time and there are still pitchers remaining, but strength in numbers is the way to go, and the Tigers need to look beyond finding a closer and remember that leads need to be held in the sixth through eighth innings as well.

The DL Adjustment

2009-01-14T23:37:00.004-05:00

Thanks to this link, I was able to find enough numbers to figure out the Elias Rankings injury adjustment. As a result, the rankings can now almost be recalculated with exact accuracy (However, projecting becomes a whole other issue). First, I want to show how the injury adjustment is calculated.

A: Adjustment
D: Days Missed

D=<60: A=364/(364-D)

D>60: A=(424-D)/(364-D)

Previously, I was giving all players over 60 days missed an adjustment of 364/304. You will notice, however, that there is a significant difference between the actual adjustment and that assumed adjustment. Fixing this error has led me to be able to reproduce the rankings (of the positions I've gotten to so far) with 100% accuracy.

If you want to try to reproduce the American League Catcher rankings, you can find all the data you need, right here. Just multiply each counting stat by the DL adjustment described above, rank them by statistical category, give each player a score from 0 to 31, sharing points in the case of ties. Then add up each player's score and divide by 217 (31 possible points in 7 different categories), multiplying by 100 because the score is a percentage. Voila, you've calculated the 2007-2008 Elias Rankings for American League catchers. The top 20 percent (6) are Type A free agents while the next 20 are Type B.

So why will this be difficult to project? While it's easy to work backward and notice when there is an error, there is basically no way to publicly get reliable disabled list data, accurate to the day. You may think that one or two days makes no difference. However, to those of you who went ahead and calculated the rankings, go ahead and give Ramon Hernandez 40 days -- the total of days I found in the transactions log on MLB.com -- on the disabled list instead of 41. You will notice his score will drop from 73.733 to 72.350. If Dioner Navarro was closer to him, that could have been the difference between a Type A and B ranking.

I'm not ready to pronounce my system bug free just yet, but this is a significant step that should improve the accuracy of the projections for the 2009 season.

Wrap Ups

2008-12-31T12:26:00.002-05:00

A couple of weeks ago, I had something on Edwin Jackson and promised a part two. I started going through each top 10 prospect from BA and tracked their career progress. After going through about three years of prospects I was bored to tears. Rather than go through everything, I will say that I never found a top 10 prospect who became a star if they had lost their shine within the next five years. In other words, based on that brief analysis, the likelihood of Jackson tapping into that potential everybody seems so fond of is very low. I apologize I couldn't go more in depth.

Speaking of Jackson, I commented last week on the XM radio host who had no clue he had been traded. After doing some digging, I found out that XM's MLB station has gone through a lot of personnel changes since the XM/Sirius merger. They have let go of several of their hosts, including the very knowledgeable Chuck Wilson and Jeff Erickson. There has been a noticible decline in the quality of the station, and replacing baseball experts with people who don't pay attention to recent transactions is a large part of that.

And while we are on the subject of wrap ups, I wanted to say that I am scaling on baseball related research projects in a big way going forward. The New Year is an admittedly cliche time to make priority changes, but I need to do just that. 2008 was a rough year for me on a personal level, as I have had to endure a seemingly endless job search after losing my first job out of college last January. While this has been a great distraction, it is a distraction I need to minimize as I focus on getting my personal life in order in 2009 and beyond. This is not to say that the blog will be gone, but the content will be cut back significantly for an indefinite period. Thank you to everybody who has followed along.

People in the MSM Earning Their Keep Moment of the Day: December 22, 2008

2008-12-22T11:08:00.003-05:00

I was just listening to MLB on XM 175, and there was this great exchange between Buck Martinez and host Seth Everett after a caller asks if David Price will be in the rotation this year.

Martinez goes on a typical cliche-ridden discussion about not rushing rookies and how nothing is a given even though there is a spot for him. I had no problem with this. It was Everett's subsequent commentary that, had I not been driving, would have made me put my head into my hands.

"That's why the talks of trading Edwin Jackson have quieted down."

Martinez proceeded to correct him, and there was the embarrassing "Oh. I'm sorry." An honest mistake, but the type of mistake that is all too common for people who have privileges that many would kill for.

The Hit-and-Run and Adam Everett

2008-12-17T09:53:00.005-05:00

I've never been a big fan of the hit-and-run. Unless you have somebody whose bat control skills are out of this world, the hit-and-run can just as easily move the fielder into the ball as it creates a hole. Throw in the double play risk from a line drive, and I really don't view the hit-and-run as a strategy that is wise to use too frequently.

That's why I squirmed a bit when saw this quote from Jim Leyland after the Adam Everett signing:

"I'm very tickled about adding Adam. We're thrilled to get a great defensive shortstop who can also hit-and-run, bunt, and handle the bat well."

The first thought I had was something along the lines of "If he handles the bat so well, why is his career OPS in the .600's." Obviously, Jim Leyland was referring to his ability to hit and run, but I'd bet there is a pretty high correlation between hit and run ability and straight hitting ability. Luckily, there are some numbers out there that may help us figure out how good of a bat handler Adam Everett is.

There are two main objectives the hitter has during a hit-and-run. The first and most important of those objectives is to make contact. A whiff can hang the runner out to dry. The second is directional hitting. When they do hit the ball, it does no good to just hit the ball anywhere. A hit-and-run is only useful when the ball is hit in a place where there is no fielder.

Fangraphs.com displays the contact percentages for each player since 2005. The method for calculating this statistic is pretty basic. Simply divide the amount of times making contact by the amount of times the player swings at the ball. The more you swing and miss, the lower your contact percentage. Below, I have two lists. The first list includes the Tigers' projected starting nine with their combined contact percentages since 2005. The second list includes some shortstops available this offseason. Both are ranked in order of their 2005-2008 contact percenteges.

Placido Polanco 93.2
Carlos Guillen 84.1
Magglio Ordonez 84.0
Gary Sheffield 83.4
Adam Everett 83.1
Gerald Laird 79.8
Miguel Cabrera 78.5
Brandon Inge 76.6
Curtis Granderson 76.1

Cesar Izturis 92.7
Jack Wilson 89.3
Orlando Cabrera 86.1
Ramon Santiago 86.0
Edgar Renteria 84.1
Adam Everett 83.1
Khalil Greene 77.2

Based on these numbers, it does not appear if Everett is a star at making contact. To nobody's surprise, Polanco was the Tigers' best. If Leyland wanted to hit and run, he probably should have done it with Polanco. The big shock is that the Tigers' two shortstops from last year, Santiago and Renteria, each make contact more often than Everett. We'll just have to hope that Leyland keeps the hit-and-run attempts with Everett to a minimum, as there will be a runner hung out to dry one out of every six attempts.

Now, contact was only one piece of the equation. There is no statistic to directly measure how well a batter can direct the ball towards the holes. While this happens on a hit and run, you'd have to think that players are always trying to handle the bat, so somebody you want to be hitting and running should have a high batting average. With his .246 (and falling) career batting average, Everett is hardly the guy who is going to find holes on the hit and run. Unless there are scouts that have found that Everett has an inate ability to turn on his bat control only when the hit-and-run is put on, it does not seem like he is an ideal option for this play.

Luckily, Everett will not have to play small ball for this move to work. So long as his defense is near the top of the league, he will help the pitchers and the team regardless of how often his at bats are wasted on a hit-and-run.

Lee Interviews Granderson

2008-12-16T12:43:00.001-05:00

http://www.detroittigertales.com/2008/12/interview-with-curtis-granderson.html

A solid interview worth reading.

Edwin Jackson's Prospect History

2008-12-14T23:33:00.003-05:00

One of the most common defenses of the Edwin Jackson acquisition that I have seen goes something like this.

"Edwin Jackson was one of the top prospects in baseball a few years back. This is a great chance to see if he can recapture that status."

At first glance, I don't buy that argument. For some perspective on the state of affairs when his prospect status was at its pinnacle:

The Tigers were just coming off of a 119 loss season.
Dontrelle Willis had just gone 14-6 in his rookie season, Miguel Cabrera had just emerged as the starting left fielder, and Pudge Rodriguez was an apparent leader. These three helped lead the Florida Marlins to a World Series title.
This was 163 home runs ago for Cabrera and 205 home runs ago for Albert Pujols.
Rick Porcello was starting his freshman year... of High School. Justin Verlander had just started his Junior year of College.
George W. Bush's approval rating was north of 50%.

If I haven't convinced you a lot has changed since the 2003-2004 prospect lists have come out, I probably never will. If you are willing to admit that this is a dynamic and ever-changing world, you have to at least consider that Edwin Jackson's stock may have fallen just a wee bit from those times. If you still aren't convinced, ask a Dodger fan. Still not convinced, head on over to Paul DePodesta's blog. While he's probably not allowed to discuss players on other teams, if Edwin Jackson had been all he was cracked up to be, there's a pretty good chance the blog would be in Dodger blue instead of whatever color the Padres are these days.

Edwin Jackson was a sixth round pick by the Dodgers in 2001, straight out of high school. After sitting the rest of the 2001 season out, Jackson was assigned to South Georgia of the South Atlantic League (Tigers' fans, this is the equivalent of West Michigan in the Midwest League) where he and Francisco Cruceta -- yes, that Francisco Cruceta -- were the anchors of their '02 starting rotation. Baseball America ranked him the 99th best prospect in baseball after that season, placing him square between Seth McClung and Nic Jackson.

It was the 2003 season when Jackson really started to make waves. Skipping high-A, he went to AA and didn't miss a beat, dominating the league and moving to the top of most people's prospect lists. There were some warning signs, however, in this AA domination. In 148 innings, Jackson did manage to walk 53 guys and post an ERA of 3.71. While those aren't bad numbers and his 157 strikeouts were impressive, they aren't the numbers of the top pitching prospect in baseball, especially at a pitcher's park like Jacksonville. This was a very impressive performance for a 19 year-old pitcher in AA. While the season in AA gained him attention, it was the September cup of Coffee that vaulted Jackson into the limelight. Specifically, it was his victorious duel with Randy Johnson on his Major League debut that is still remembered to this day by those lamenting what could have been. I will be quick to point out this game to those who want to pin their hopes on one cherry picked game in a player's past. While the season was an extreme success for Edwin Jackson, one has to look back with some hesitation. The slightly above average ERA and walk rate may suggest that he wasn't dominant in AA, and the MLB experience was just 20 innnings... not nearly enough to draw a meaningful sample. (You could make the same points about Matt Joyce, and it would be fair.)

After 2003, Baseball America ranked Edwin Jackson as the #4 player in baseball behind Joe Mauer, B.J. Upton, and Delmon Young and just ahead of Rickie Weeks, Alexis Rios, Kaz Matsui, Greg Miller, Grady Sizemore, and Prince Fielder. I'll get back to this list in a moment, because I want to go over the past five years of Edwin Jackson's career.

As great as his '03 season was, Jackson's '04 was as much of a disaster. Penciled into the starting rotation in the spring, Jackson proceeded to blow up in the spring and lose his spot. In AAA-Las Vegas, a tremendous hitter's environment, he was awful, posting an ERA of 5.84 and walking 55 guys in 91 innings. Nonetheless, injuries to the Dodgers' starting staff pushed Jackson into a spot starter's role in the summer. Upon filling in for Odalis Perez in July, he had to leave a game in the second inning with an elbow injury, yet started again five days later. No word on if Kevin Rand was consulted for this decision. It should come as no surprise that Jackson spent some time in July on the disabled list after this before heading back to Las Vegas for further struggles before a pretty brutal cup of coffee in September with the Dodgers. It was a year to forget for Edwin Jackson.

It was more of the same in 2005 for this enigma. Despite constant praise from his Major League manager Jim Tracy, Jackson just couldn't put it together in the minors, warranting a June demotion from Las Vegas back to AA Jacksonville, where he recovered somewhat. Unfortunately, it was more of the same in the late season call-up. Edwin Jackson was quickly becoming a flop.

With his biggest supporter, Jim Tracy, out of a job, the Dodgers shipped Edwin Jackson to Tampa Bay in a deal for relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter. Clearly his stock had fallen hard, and very few players were in need of a change of scenery than Jackson. However, the 2006 season wasn't much different for Jackson. He struggled in AAA Durham before a complete lack of Tampa Bay pitching forced him into being completely overmatched to the tune of a 5.45 ERA in relief.

Jackson has been in the Majors for good for the past two years, but it was only because he was out of options and the Rays felt they would lose him on waivers. They simply didn't have any other pitchers to force him off the staff, either. This past year, Jackson stayed on as the Rays' fifth starter, but was clearly a notch below everybody else on the staff, only appearing in three games during the postseason, each in a mop up role. Jackson's improvement in his ERA and win totals were largely the results of improvements around him. The Rays' defense was upgraded from one of the league's worst to the league's best, and they were simply keeping runs off the scoreboard. While it appears that Jackson may have found himself, it is likely that he is the same middling pitcher that has frustrated the Rays, Devil Rays, and Dodgers for the past five years.

This post is much longer than I anticipated when I started writing, so I will save the rest for another post. The one question I want to address is whether or not we can expect a resurgance out of Edwin Jackson because of his former prospect status. We'll take a look at that later in the week.

Aquilino Lopez Non-tendered

2008-12-13T12:29:00.002-05:00

The Tigers non-tendered Aquilino Lopez last night. This is not a big surprise, as he was among the league's worst in keeping inherited runners from scoring. Turning 34 in April, Lopez was not likely to improve, so keeping him around didn't serve much of a purpose. Before people start complaining about losing Skelton while a roster spot was going to be opened, bear in mind that the Tigers may be signing 2-3 more free agents, so the open roster spot is a bit misleading at this point. If Eddie Bonine survives the offseason, complaints are valid.

Mlbtraderumors has a list of the non-tenders. Some pitchers (a lot of which are recovering from injuries) on the list include:

Daniel Cabrera
Joe Nelson
Takashi Saito
Chris Capuano
Scott Proctor
Tyler Johnson
Chris Britton
Gary Majewski
Chuck James

And former Tigers:
Denny Bautista
Wilfredo Ledezma
Jason Smith

One really interesting player non-tendered was Jairo Cuevas, who has had an eventful offseason. Claimed off waivers from the Braves by the Royals on October 24, he was claimed back by Atlanta on November 26 before Kansas City claimed him back this Wednesday. Now Cuevas has been non-tendered, and is a free agent, presumably so that Kansas City can bypass the waiver process, but interesting nonetheless.

Sometime next week I'll go through some of these non-tenders. Odds are that at least one of them will end up on the Tigers roster next year.

It's okay. He's skinny.

2008-12-11T12:16:00.006-05:00

James Skelton was taken by Arizona in the Rule 5 draft. Kyle Bloom was taken by the Tigers from Pittsburgh. I'll have more on this after the dust settles. A lot of trades tend to take place after the draft.

The good news is that Alfredo Figaro could not have possibly been taken today. Thank God.

Update:
As of yet, James Skelton still hasn't been traded by Arizona. Why is this important? The Diamondbacks already have two quality catchers under 30 in Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero. As it stands, there is no room to stash Skelton on the roster. Unless he or Montero is traded, there is no room for Skelton on the roster, meaning he'd have to be returned. This still isn't sitting very well, although this would probably not be a catastrophic loss. Would is the key word in that sentence. The odds that Skelton sticks all year on Arizona's roster are very low right now, however they have carried three catchers in the past. I still don't like this one bit, as we have yet another sign of backwards thinking by the Tigers' front office this year.

Kyle Bloom is an interesting pick. He'll be 26 when the season starts, so he's no spring chicken. His minor league splits mesh with various reports that he made significant mechanical changes during this season, posting FIP's of 5.40, 4.51, 5.61, 3.33, and 3.33 in April, May, June, July, and August respectively. This improvement continued in the Hawaiian Leagues, where he posted a 1.5 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 30 innings pitched. It certainly looks as if the mechanical changes have set Bloom in the right direction, and this is a worthwhile gamble to take.

Finally, the Tigers passed in the minor league phase, and lost no players. In case you were worried, the math professor stays in the organization.

Update #2:
From the Tiger's website:

"If he throws the way he threw for [Egan], I think he'll be interesting and have a chance to make our ballclub," Dombrowski said.

Isn't this how we ended up with Francisco Cruceta?

Andrew Friedman Takes DD to the Cleaners

2008-12-10T22:18:00.006-05:00

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/tigers-to-acqui.html

Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce?

This makes no sense at first. I'll update after I do some digging on Edwin Jackson and gather my thoughts. This doesn't look good though. Jackson is exactly the type of pitcher the Tigers shouldn't be going after.

Update:
Okay, here we go in bullet point format.

Like Laird, Edwin Jackson is eligible for arbitration. Unlike Laird, i doubt anybody else was going to acquire Jackson. Could this have waited for two days just in case he was non-tendered?
Edwin Jackson is out of options. This means if he takes a slight step back, he can't be sent to the minors without slipping through waivers.
And the difference between Jackson's 2008 and needing to be sent to the minors isn't as great as you would think. Yes, he had a "shiny" 4.42 ERA, but some of that was due to factors outside of his control. The 4.90 FIP suggests that he really was pretty bad this year. 77 BB and 108 K's in 183 innings is pretty bad.
Why is it that all the pitchers the Tigers are linked to have fluky ERA's? Jackson? Joe Beimel? John Parrish? Either the Tigers aren't even looking at peripherals or they are seeing something I don't. I hope it's the latter, but fear it's the former.
This only works out if Jackson finds something and becomes a better pitcher. He's simply not a good pitcher right now, and that will need to work.
After years trying to find a left-handed bat and spending plate appearances offensive nonentities Sean Casey and Jacque Jones for their left-handedness, Matt Joyce finally provided a decent option there. He was cast to the bench this offseason because he wasn't being overpaid like Gary Sheffield and Brandon Inge. Now he's been sent to the American League's best team for a thrower.
Matt Joyce was the Tigers' best defensive player last year.

I don't see how this trade makes sense. In doing this, Dombrowski is essentially betting on Carlos Guillen and Gary Sheffield playing 150 games apiece this year. I don't like those odds.

If somebody drafts James Skelton tomorrow, I'll lose it.

Note: Andrew Friedman is the Tampa Bay Rays' GM, not a guest author.

In an Attempt to Raise Joe Beimel's Relative Stock,

2008-12-10T00:05:00.005-05:00

The Tigers are interested in one of the worst pitchers on the market.

Some career numbers for John Parrish:

271.2 IP
188 BB
221 K
25 HR
4.54 ERA

The walk rate is unacceptable and there is nothing there to offset it. Stay away! I'm sure there are dozens of LOOGY's available for $50,000 on Thursday in the Rule 5 draft that would do a better job than Parrish, including this guy.

Looking Over Laird's Shoulder

2008-12-09T11:10:00.005-05:00

From Gerald Laird's teleconference yesterday:

"Knowing that I'm not going to look over my shoulder, it's relaxing now. I'm just going to play baseball. I'm not going to worry about the small things I did over the last couple years.

Well, two things have changed since I had a post on acquiring Gerald Laird yesterday. At the time, it seemed likely that there was going to be some sort of a time share arrangement between Laird and Dusty Ryan. That doesn't appear to be the case, as Laird has been annointed the team's starter. This only turns out to be a bad thing if a struggling Laird is taking playing time away from a capable Ryan. There's a possibility that series of events could occur and Jim Leyland's trademark veteran stubbornness could block the Tigers' best option. Then again, Dusty Ryan could have been a fluke this year, and Laird could be saving us from disaster. Regardless, it is difficult to approve Laird's dismissal of Dusty Ryan, and could make for an awkward situation during the season.

Could the Tigers be in the market for Laird's backup now? Here's a quote from Dombrowski yesterday.

"Ideally," Dombrowski said, "our (plan) is that it will benefit him to play every day at Triple-A."

I am perfectly fine with Dusty Ryan getting seasoning in AAA. However, the implication here seems to be that the Tigers are content having Dane Sardinha as the team's backup. I see no reason why Dane Sardinha should be any higher than fourth on any catching depth chart, and if this trade makes the Tigers feel comfortable with him on the roster, it would be an unfortunate consequence.

Onto Adam Everett, whom the Tigers worked out last week and have apparently signed. For $1 million plus incentives, this isn't a bad deal. However, there are some question marks surrounding him. The biggest of which is his shoulder, which caused him to miss much of last season. They apparently feel confident that his shoulder is healthy and will not hamper him defensively this year. Forgive me if I'm skeptical of the Tigers' scouting after they felt Jacque Jones was still an MLB caliber outfielder or that Edgar Renteria was an above average defensive shortstop. We'll just have to wait and see if he is and capable of playing a full season at a high level. I cannot blindly trust this organization anymore.

Everett was one of the top, if not the top, defensive shortstops in the game before his injuries, but he needs to continue to be elite in order to be useful, because the career .653 OPS will not cut it if he is merely good out there. It will also do no good if he is only able to play 40 or 50 games, as the Tigers would then have to go right back to square one. In which case, we would be subjected to the seemingly endless Jack Wilson rumors.

Transactions/Eligibilties Post Updated

2008-12-08T12:05:00.002-05:00

Just a reminder, I am keeping the transactions and eligibilities post updated this off-season. With the winter meetings looming, you can see who is eligible for arbitration, who is eligible to be selected for the Rule 5 draft, and how many roster spots the Tigers have open.

I will also be keeping track of options and service time for all players on the 40-man roster. That page is now updated to include Gerald Laird and the new 40-man additions.

Laird for Moscoso (and Melo)

2008-12-08T07:34:00.004-05:00

The long rumored Gerald Laird trade finally happened last night. After worrying about the cost (especially after hearing the names Matt Joyce and Jeff Larish thrown around in the Jack Wilson discussions), giving up just Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo is a bit of a relief.

Even despite the incredible ratios this year, I'm really not that high on Moscoso. He started out the season missing some time with a shoulder issue and was assigned to Lakeland when healthy. There, as a 24 year old, Moscoso struck out 72 in 54 innings while being used both in relief and in the rotation. He moved to Erie and posted a 50/8 K/BB ratio in 34 innings. That is out of this world. However, there are some problems.

He is a big time fly ball pitcher, posting an abysmal 29% ground ball rate in Erie. Actually, that's an okay fit for the Tigers so long as Curtis Granderson's average defensive season was a fluke. However, the Rangers may regret acquiring him, as the ball simply flies out of Ameriquest Field. It also remains to be seen if he'd be able to keep the ball in the park against MLB hitters, who punish mistakes up in the zone much more than his minor league brethren. Also, Moscoso does have a history of shoulder issues, and reports of fatigue have come out of his time in the winter leagues. While I will admit I said this about trading Jair Jurrjens, this could be a very good time to trade Guillermo. Overall, this isn't as big of a loss as one would think.

Now, to Carlos Melo, a guy who I honestly don't know much about. This was his first year in the Tigers' organization, and I'd be remiss if I didn't point out how similar his final line looked to Moscoso's. It may sound like a cop out, but Melo is so far away that I have a hard time seeing his loss affecting the Tigers.

As for Gerald Laird, I can live with him. Given the options on the free agent market, this is an okay pickup at a reasonable rate. I don't think he's anything close to a long term answer at catcher. So long as there is a reasonable time share between him and Ryan, I am okay with this trade. If Laird is hitting .220/.280/.320 and chucking only 15% of baserunners out in the middle of July, my hope is that Leyland realizes he may be better off using Dusty Ryan. If not, like the Sean Casey and Neifi Perez trades before, this one could backfire.

No Arbitration for Renteria

2008-12-02T09:26:00.002-05:00

It's not a huge surprise, but Edgar Renteria was denied arbitration yesterday. Yes, this means that the Tigers will not be receiving those two draft picks as compensation. Looking around the league, there were less arbitration offers than I figured. Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn were two other type A free agents who teams did not want to take the risk on. Clearly teams -- The Tigers included -- want no part in giving up in excess of $10-million to keep players they don't necessarily want. In addition to their 2008 salaries, there is another common thread between those three players: they are all poor defensively.

I was upset at first about this move, but the more I look at it, the more it makes sense. Clearly a team which is up to its neck in payroll in a city whose main industry could be on the brink of a collapse isn't in position to risk paying $8-10M for a player only worth $1-2M. The 35th pick in the draft would have been nice, though.

Giants Sign Renteria?

2008-11-24T16:01:00.004-05:00

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/giants-sign-edg.html

According to mlbtraderumors, it appears as if that is the case. The Tigers get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, and one of the Giants draft picks. It will likely be the second round pick (sixth in the round), unless the Giants sign a second (and higher ranked) Type A free agent.

Update: It looks like it's not quite official, and potentially not imminent. Let's not count our draft picks until they hatch.

Why Marte Wasn't Eligible

2008-11-20T23:36:00.003-05:00

It turns out it's not the age on signing day, it's the age on June 5 on the signing year. This would mean Marte counted as an 18 year old signee and has an extra year before he can be taken in the Rule 5 draft. My apologies for having this wrong on the list. It will be corrected next year.

Still no word on why James Skelton was left unprotected.

Tigers Foolishly Leave Skelton Unprotected

2008-11-20T12:07:00.002-05:00

The Tigers' catching at the upper levels is thin right now. How thin? Dusty Ryan is the only player in the organization capable of performing well in Toledo or Detroit this year. That is, if they get their way and James Skelton becomes somebody else's problem.

I'm not saying that James Skelton is a guarantee to step in and become the Tigers' everyday catcher, but when you have one capable upper level catcher and a weak free agent class, it makes no sense to expose a player -- one who has succeeded at every step of the minors -- to the Rule 5 draft. In this situation, the Tigers should be looking anywhere and everywhere for possible catchers next year. Whether it is for insurance for Dusty Ryan and his eventual backup, or to fill the holes left in Toledo (No, Andrew Graham and Max St. Pierre are not valid third catcher options). Risking losing a potential late season option is not the answer. Risking losing somebody who could be a viable catching option long term is worse.

My biggest fear is that the Tigers neglected Skelton for the wrong reasons. Not because Alex Avila and Dusty Ryan may project as better prospects than him. Not because of the lack of power. No, my fear is that he was left off the 40 man roster because he doesn't look like a catcher. While I've gone into the fallacies of that argument before, we can hopefully rest assured that if this move blows up in the Tigers' face, they will have learned their lesson. Unfortunately, by that time it would be too late.

Setting the 40-Man Roster

2008-11-19T11:11:00.002-05:00

Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to submit their final reserve lists. These lists are in place to protect people from the Rule 5 draft in December. Players who signed at 18 or younger are eligible to be selected on their fifth draft since signing while others are eligible to be drafted in their fourth. The most notable reserve list is the team's 40-man roster, which protects players from the Major League draft. Meanwhile, there are are also reserve lists set for every level, protecting players from the minor league phases of the draft. These lists, however, are not made available to the public, so speculating on them would prove to be fruitless.

In trying to predict the Tigers' 40 man roster, the desire to protect young players with potential needs to be balanced with the needs of the Major League roster. While it would make sense to fill up all seven available spots with prospects, what happens when the team starts filling its needs and those same prospects are the ones exposed to waivers before their first spring training? For that reason, the first step I am going to take is to subjectively rank the players based on their likelihood of being removed from the 40 man roster.

The first group of players are those signed to big deals. These are the guys who have contracts or the service time to make it unlikely the Tigers will push them from the 40-man roster.

Miguel Cabrera
Curtis Granderson
Magglio Ordonez
Rick Porcello
Placido Polanco
Carlos Guillen
Jeremy Bonderman
Brandon inge
Gary Sheffield
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis

I am going to assume that all of these players will stay on the 40 man roster -- unless traded-- this offseason. Will it's not inconcievable to see Dontrelle Willis passed through waivers, he has the right to refuse an assignment and the Tigers would be out the $22 million in the process.

The next group of players are those who are not signed or are signed to very cheap deals for just the 2009 season, ranked again in a subjective manner estimating their approximate value to the Tigers on the 40 man roster this offseason. The players at the top of this list are safe from being outrighted, while the ones at the bottom are likely to be on the chopping block.

Justin Verlander
Joel Zumaya
Matt Joyce
Armando Galarraga
Jeff Larish
Dusty Ryan
Bobby Seay
Zach Miner
Clete Thomas
Michael Hollimon
Ramon Santiago
Marcus Thames
Ryan Raburn
Freddy Dolsi
Clay Rapada
Macay McBride
Brent Clevlen
Chris Lambert
Fernando Rodney
Aquilino Lopez
Mike Hessman
Eddie Bonine

Bonine is clearly the most expendable of the players on the 40-man now. Because of an ambiguously worded provision in the CBA, could be protected from removal from the roster between tomorrow and March 15 on account of his ending the season on the disabled list. For that reason, I'd expect him to be passed through waivers this week. Hessman, a minor league veteran, seems to be pretty expendable. Rodney and Lopez are eligible for arbitration and could be non-tender candidates. Chris Lambert was pretty awful in his cup of coffee and doesn't have the type of stuff that would justify keeping him on the roster in leu of some harder throwers. Brent Clevlen would be the last player whose spot is in jeopardy, as he is out of options and didn't even earn the call up in September.

Now, before I get into the players who need to be protected, I want to account for five roster spots that the Tigers could be using on free agents this offseason. One starting pitcher, two relievers, a catcher, and a shortstop are all likely to be acquired in some way or another. Will they all be free agents? Will some come via trades for other players on the 40 man roster, thereby not requiring a roster spot? For the purposes of this, I'll assume all five players will require a roster spot.

In order to figure out whether or not these players will need to be protected, we will need to place them in the list above and see if they still project to be in the top 40 at the end of the offseason. Some of the top players who need to be protected include:

Wilkin Ramirez-
The pros: Impressed in spring training last year, coming off a breakthrough season, scouts love his tools, almost certainly will be drafted if left unprotected.
The cons: Plate discipline is still lacking, could this season have been a fluke?
The verdict: One of the top prospects in the system, I would slot him between Larish and Galarraga on the list. He's a no-brainer to protect.

James Skelton-
The pros: Great OBP skills and contact ability. Has now sustained his performance in Erie and the Hawaii winter league.
The cons: The durability concerns, which are largely bogus, are likely to turn opposing scouts off of him, the lack of power could bring the OBP down later on.
The verdict: I ranked him just below Ryan on my prospect list, but there's a better chance he makes it through the draft. Because the Tigers don't have an incumbant at catcher, it makes sense to protect him. I'll slide him right between Dolsi and Rapada.

Luis Marte-
The pros: Dominated Lakeland, big arm, came on strong in the AFL.
The cons: The elbow questions still linger.
The verdict: As a possible bullpen contributer with injury concerns, it makes sense to rank him right above Macay McBride.

Casper Wells-
The pros: The power has shown at Erie and now in the AFL.
The cons: Scouts aren't convinced, and he could slip through the Rule 5 draft. Outfield depth is a strength of the Tigers, so he may not be missed if taken in the draft.
The verdict: We'll slot him right above Aquilino Lopez.

Zach Simons-
The pros: Big fastball, wowed scouts in Lakeland.
The cons: May not be MLB ready, struggled in the AFL.
The verdict: Worth protecting, but could be squeezed. I'll put him right below Wells, above Lopez.

Guillermo Moscoso-
The pros: Blew through Erie and Lakeland this year.
The cons: A bit old for those levels, doesn't have overpowering stuff, struggling in Venezuelan winter leagues.
The verdict: A notch below Simons, but still more appealing than Lopez.

Jay Sborz-
The pros: Big arm, succeeded in Lakeland.
The cons: Injury history, not MLB ready.
The verdict: Just between Hessman and Lopez.

Alfredo Figaro-
The pros: Hard thrower, good movement on his fastball, dominated in West Michigan.
The cons: Only success was in the biggest pitchers' park in organized baseball against players two years younger than him. Struggled in Lakeland, not MLB ready.
The verdict: Below Bonine.

Everybody else, including Williams Rhymes, Max Leon, and Josh Rainwater slots behind Alfredo Figaro.

So, wrapping this up, we have:

Miguel Cabrera
Curtis Granderson
Magglio Ordonez
Rick Porcello
Placido Polanco
Carlos Guillen
Jeremy Bonderman
Brandon Inge
FA SS
FA C
FA SP
FA RP
FA/Rule 5 RP
Gary Sheffield
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis
Justin Verlander
Joel Zumaya
Matt Joyce
Armando Galarraga
Wilkin Ramirez
Jeff Larish
Dusty Ryan
Bobby Seay
Zach Miner
Clete Thomas
Michael Hollimon
Ramon Santiago
Marcus Thames
Ryan Raburn
Freddy Dolsi
James Skelton
Clay Rapada
Luis Marte
Macay McBride
Brent Clevlen
Chris Lambert
Fernando Rodney
Casper Wells
Zach Simons
Guillermo Moscoso
Aquilino Lopez
Jay Sborz
Mike Hessman
Eddie Bonine
Alfredo Figaro
William Rhymes

According to this excercise, Guillermo Moscoso may be the odd man out if the team needs five roster spots this offseason. You may get a good idea of how close the Tigers are to making a trade if more than five players are added. As it stands, while Lopez, Hessman, and Bonine fall outside of the top 40, there is no reason to cut them loose quite yet. They can each be outrighted or non-tendered as the need for roster space requires. For now, I'll make the following transaction projection for tomorrow:

Purchased the contracts of P's Luis Marte and Zach Simons, C James Skelton, and OF's Wilkin Ramirez and Casper Wells.

IC Rankings - Week 13

2008-11-17T09:31:00.001-05:00

Alabama (1 Last Week)
Texas Tech (2)
Texas (3)
Florida (4)
Utah (5)
Oklahoma (6)
Ball State (7)
Boise State (8)
Penn State (9)
Ohio State (10)
Michigan State (12)
USC (13)
Oklahoma State (14)
BYU (16)
Cincinnati (17)
Georgia (18)
TCU (19)
LSU (20)
Pittsburgh (21)
Missouri (23)
Northwestern (22)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia Tech (NR)
Oregon State (NR)
Tulsa (11)

Also Receiving Votes: Western Michigan, Boston College, West Virginia, Maryland, Miami, Minnesota, Air Force, Oregon, Florida State.

Free Agent Catchers

2008-11-11T15:48:00.002-05:00

For the Tigers, catcher is a position that is in a different situation than in the recent past. For the past five years, Ivan Rodriguez has had a hold on the position and there was very little in the way of prospects pushing him out the door. With Rodriguez gone, his replacement Brandon Inge back to third base, possible backup Vance Wilson gone via free agency, there is very little in the way of veteran incumbency. Looking down on the farm, Dusty Ryan had a breakout year, James Skelton continued to impress with his on base skills, and Alex Avila turned some heads in Instructional League after being drafted in the fifth round this year.

While a catcher in the short term is needed to split the time with Dusty Ryan and ensure that the position is covered if he isn't ready, with three pretty good catching prospects on the horizon, the Tigers probably won't feel like committing themselves to a catcher on a long term contract. As it stands right now, here is a really quick projection of the opening day catchers on each full season roster.

Detroit
-Dusty Ryan
-?

Toledo
-Max St. Pierre
-Andrew Graham

Erie
-James Skelton
-Adrian Casanova

Lakeland
-Alex Avila
-Devin Thomas

West Michigan
-Joe Bowen
-Angel Flores

Other candidates
-Jeff Kunkel
-Charlie Lisk
-Tyler Weber

As it stands, a second major league catcher is an absolute must. It also appears as if a starter at Toledo is necessary as a third catcher. This means the Tigers have two holes to fill. For the purposes of this post, we'll say they will be filled through free agency.

What I have done is gone through each catcher I could find on the free agent market, either from the Major League front or the Minor League front, and categorized them based on a projected role that they would be capable of filling.

Possible MLB Starters/Backups

Josh Bard: Billfer has already given him the endorsement, but he has emerged as my top target. Yes, he was downright brutal in '08, but he did put up very good offensive seasons for the Padres in 2006 and 2007. You can chalk it up to an injury, bad luck, or possibly a decline in skills. Throw in the fact that he'll be a one year commitment and his offensive skills match up with a platoon with Dusty Ryan, and it makes too much sense. Buy low.
Ivan Rodriguez: Still is a capable player and is still healthy. The problem is that he wants a lot of money and a lot of years. If it gets to February and the Tigers need a catcher and Pudge needs a home, this could make some sense. In fact, that sounds somewhat familiar.

Possible MLB Backups

David Ross: This is kind of a darkhorse. He's been cut free by the Reds and Red Sox in the past couple of months. I still see him as a guy who can hit some, and he has some success gunning down runners in the past couple of years.
Gregg Zaun: Probably can't be counted on for an every day role. If the goal is to find somebody who can catch 100+ games and still be productive, another direction would probably be preferred. Zaun's skills are declining quickly.
Henry Blanco: Still can cut down baserunners, but has never been that great of a hitter. At 37, this would be a backup at best.
Jason Varitek: Will be too pricy. I've already addressed him.
Javier Valentin: I wanted to mention him, but he didn't catch much this year. Can still hit some, but probably can't handle much more than 30 or 40 games behind the plate.

The following players are guys who would be suitable third catchers or Toledo starters. While the previous lists are in order of preference, this one is in no particular order.

Eliezar Alfonzo
Brad Ausmus
Paul Bako
Michael Barrett
Gary Bennett
Luke Carlin
Johnny Estrada
Sal Fasano
Toby Hall
Paul Hoover
J.R. House
Mark Johnson
Erik Kratz
Paul Lo Duca
Carlos Maldanado
Luis Oliveros
Guillermo Rodriguez
Chris Stewart
Justin Knoedler

One more guy I wanted to address is Vance Wilson. He evidently wants to return, and it could make some sense to let him rehab in the minors as an emergency option.

Offseason Transaction Tracker

2008-11-11T12:14:00.002-05:00

I've updated the Offseason Eligibilities page to follow the offseason transactions. You can find that here. The next notable deadline in next Thursday, November 20. That is the day the reserve lists must be filed to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. How many spots the Tigers will fill depends on how active they are in free agency and trades before this deadline. Next week, I'll post some projections on who gets protected, but I want to see some things shake out first.

IC Rankings - Week 12

2008-11-09T17:35:00.002-05:00

Not much change this week, but here goes:

Alabama (1 Last Week)
Texas Tech (2)
Texas (4)
Florida (5)
Utah (6)
Oklahoma (9)
Ball State (8)
Boise State (10)
Penn State (3)
Ohio State (13)
Tulsa (11)
Michigan State (12)
USC (17)
Oklahoma State (7)
North Carolina (19)
BYU (20)
Cincinnati (21)
Georgia (22)
TCU (15)
LSU (18)
Pittsburgh (NR)
Northwestern (14)
Missouri (NR)
Minnesota (16)
Air Force (NR)

Also Recieving Votes, California, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Western Michigan, West Virginia, Arizona, Oregon State, Boston College

IC Rankings - Week 11

2008-11-08T13:09:00.002-05:00

Just realized I didn't post last week's rankings... hope it's not too late. Things have stabilized and look remarkably similar to the real rankings.

Alabama (3 Last Week)
Texas Tech (7)
Penn State (4)
Texas (1)
Florida (10)
Utah (5)
Oklahoma State (9)
Ball State (8)
Oklahoma (12)
Boise State (11)
Tulsa (2)
Michigan State (15)
Ohio State (14)
Northwestern (18)
TCU (19)
Minnesota (6)
USC (20)
LSU (22)
North Carolina (23)
BYU (25)
Cincinnati (NR)
Georgia (13)
Georgia Tech (NR)
West Virginia (NR)
California (NR)

Also Recieving Votes: Pittsburgh, Missouri, Notre Dame, Air Force, South Florida, Florida State, Western Michigan

Free Agents!

2008-11-07T17:12:00.002-05:00

The list of minor league free agents is official: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1786#comment-17252 .

Certainly, there are some diamonds in the rough in there. I hope to have more on that next week.

Quick Plug

2008-11-05T08:46:00.001-05:00

I'm going to be doing some guest spots over at TigsTown.com. The first one is a roundtable posted today.

Found 'em!

2008-11-04T21:58:00.002-05:00

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11042008/sports/yankees/al_player_rankings_136998.htm

I've already gone through the AL Catchers. The players are correct, but there are some errors.

I've found three errors already.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia's name is too long and caused some import problems that I didn't catch. He was, therefore, way too low in the projected rankings.
It appears as if suspension time doesn't count in the DL adjustment. John Buck, Miguel Olivo, and Ivan Rodriguez were all too high.
Even after adjusting, it appears as if they are still too high. When I take everybody's score and multiply it by 31*7/100, here is the error I'm getting for each player.

Joe Mauer	-1.0
Victor Martinez	1.0
Jorge Posada	-3.0
A.J. Pierzynski	2.0
Jason Varitek	0.0
Ivan Rodriguez	6.0
Ramon Hernandez	-4.0
Dioner Navarro	0.0
Mike Napoli	-2.0
Kurt Suzuki	-2.0
Kenji Johjima	-1.0
Miguel Olivo	3.0
Gregg Zaun	-3.0
Kelly Shoppach	0.0
Gerald Laird	2.0
Mike Redmond	1.0
Rod Barajas	-2.0
John Buck	0.0
Dave Ross	3.0
Jamie Burke	1.0
Jose Molina	0.0
Jeff Mathis	1.0
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	-0.5
Jeff Clement	-7.0
Rob Bowen	2.0
Kevin Cash	3.5
Toby Hall	1.0
Shawn Riggans	1.0
Guillermo Quiroz	1.0
Sal Fasano	-3.0
Dane Sardinha	-0.5
Vance Wilson	0.5

A positive value means I overestimated their ranking, a negative value means I underestimated. What do some of the bigger numbers have in common? Frankly, I'm not sure.

Also, Vance Wilson finished with zero. What is this a big deal? Well, he tied with Dane Sardinha with zero home runs. How could Sardinha have been ranked above Wilson? That makes no sense to me, and I'm at a loss to explain it.

Looking For a Complete List of Elias Rankings

2008-11-03T12:10:00.003-05:00

I am trying to figure out some of the areas where my projections deviate from the actual results to refine them for next year. The problem is that I cannot do it with the bits and pieces of the rankings that are making it into some press releases. If anybody has the complete rankings, please shoot me an email. Thanks.

Well, now I'm curious

2008-10-31T11:59:00.005-04:00

http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/10/bradley-starts-with-a-b.html

I had Bradley as a borderline A, and it turns out he came out to Type B. I'll be gone for the weekend, so I probably won't have time to digest the actual rankings as they come out. Not off to a good start.

Also, I have no explanation for Hank Blalock as a Type B.

I'm also seeing that Pudge is Type B. His classification as Type A is one that I didn't put much stock into because the margin was razor thin.

Again, when the full rankings are out. I will look at the discrepancies and upgrade for next year. I warned these weren't going to be perfect.

Glover, Sardinha out

2008-10-30T13:53:00.002-04:00

In addition to Edgar Renteria's option being formally declined and Jeff Jones being rehired as bullpen coach, the news that caught my eye today was that Gary Glover and Dane Sardinha had been outrighted to Toledo, refusing their assignments and becoming free agents. This brings the 40 man roster to 36 players in addition to Jeremy Bonderman, Joel Zumaya, and Vance Wilson, who are on the 60-day DL. With six players eligible for free agency still counting against the roster until they file, the Tigers stand to have seven free spots to work with to start the offseason.

Notable among those not put through waivers are Eddie Bonine and Mike Hessman. Bonine seems to be a low-upside pitcher who put up pedestrian numbers in his time in the Majors before ending the season with a shoulder injury. Perhaps with the emphasis on strike throwers that could result from Rick Knapp's hiring, the Tigers opted to hold onto Bonine, who has allowed just 84 walks in the three years since joining the organization. Hessman sticking on the roster again shows that he could be in the plans. While the talk of Brandon Inge getting the third base job may have suggested otherwise, perhaps he'll be on a short leash and internal options could be necessary.

Just Say "No" to Varitek

2008-10-30T10:37:00.002-04:00

Between Lynn Henning suggesting him Tuesday morning and Ken Rosenthal reporting this morning that Scott Boras is trying to sell him to the Tigers, I wanted to look at Jason Varitek and why this would be a bad deal for the Tigers.

First and foremost, his production has declined in recent years. Here are his BA/OBP/SLG splits since 2005.

2005: .281/.366/.489 (529 PA)
2006: .238/.325/.400 (416 PA)
2007: .255/.361/.421 (518 PA)
2008: .220/.313/.359 (483 PA)

For the time being, I am willing to throw out his 2006 season because he was suffering from a bad knee that year, and he has had surgery to correct that. There isn't, however, anything to justify the poor season he had in 2008 aside from the fact that he was 36 years old during the season. It seems likely that he has lost his skills, and he's not worthy of a starting job, especially when he is only throwing out 22% of baserunners.

Since we have established that Varitek is likely in the decline phase of his career, some would still suggest that coming in and platooning with Dusty Ryan be okay. I'm just curious how this particular platoon would work. Somebody's got to face right-handed pitchers. Via minorleaguesplits.com, lets take a look at Dusty Ryan's career R/L splits.

Vs. L: .274/.363/.485
Vs. R: .218/.301/.347

It would seem to me that if he was going to have a platoon partner, that guy should be able to produce against right-handed pitching, as Ryan seems to have the southpaws covered. What about Varitek?

vs. L (2008): .284/.378/.484
vs. R (2008): .201/.293/.323

Career:
vs. L: .284/.362/.468
vs. R: .254/.340/.427

Again, better against lefties, and downright putrid in 2008 against right-handed pitchers. A platoon with Varitek and Ryan would not work. Throw in the money and the draft pick the Tigers would have to give up for Varitek if signed before the arbitration deadline, and there really is no choice but to say no way.

Getting Caught Up

2008-10-29T09:57:00.004-04:00

Virgil Vasquez was claimed off waivers by Boston. He was on my chopping block for guys on the 40 man roster this offseason, but I'm a bit surprised by the timing. Certainly players like Gary Glover and Dane Sardinha could have been removed first, but I don't find VV to be that big of a loss. Also, the timing could make sense because more players clear waivers in October than during the winter.
Billfer is doing some pitch f/x work this offseason. The first post was yesterday, focusing on the amount of strikes thrown by the Tigers compared to the rest of the league, including the Twins. Check it out.
I've posted estimated service time here. The Tigers have official numbers on their website.
It's time for me to call out Lynn Henning. I found this in his article yesterday.

"It is virtually certain they will not have interest in three relief pitchers who will be free agents: Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Fossum and Gary Glover. Nor are they apt to offer salary arbitration to either, given that none figures to finish as high as a Type B free agent (Elias Sports Bureau's rankings have not yet been released) -- that would earn the Tigers a high 2009 draft choice if they offered arbitration and the pitcher signed elsewhere.
Who's out there?
Attractive free agents who would fit any of the Tigers' needs are likely to be overly expensive or would cost the Tigers an early draft pick next year. Exhibit A there is Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a likely Type A free agent who would be a plausible answer to Detroit's need for a veteran catcher to assist likely starter Dusty Ryan.
Signing a Type A free agent can cost an acquiring team a first-round draft pick. But because the Tigers will be among the first 15 teams to draft in 2009 -- they will have the ninth overall selection -- they do not lose a first-round pick on a Type A acquisition. They instead would lose their second-round choice.
It's a scenario that could yet play out if the Tigers are able to dip into the free-agent pool to help their bullpen, although money would be the greater issue there. Money, too -- more than lost draft picks -- could make obtaining a free-agent shortstop (neither Rafael Furcal nor Cesar Izturis is likely to be even a Type B) difficult for a Tigers team that likely will be cutting, rather than adding, payroll"

Where did you get that information, Mr. Henning? Surely you didn't go through and calculate that on your own. Just a bit of recognition would be nice. Also, Gary Glover is not a free agent.

How not to sing the National Anthem

2008-10-27T08:37:00.002-04:00

Patty LaBelle last night for those who didn't see it.

And then there was this travesty:

Every single anthem in this series has been truly awful and long-winded. The song should take roughly 75 seconds to sing (hum it and time yourself). Every second over that is a second of selfish indulgence by a talentless hack: end of story. I have no idea if this is a directive from Fox to make the anthem go longer to fit into their endless commercial breaks. It's bad enough that the World Series telecast has begun to make a mockery of baseball with three minute commercial breaks, Joe Buck hating the game, promoting "24" and the NFL while the game is going on. I've accepted that.

If they have gone into mocking this great country, they have gone too far.

IC Rankings - Week 10

2008-10-27T00:33:00.002-04:00

Here are the IC Rankings for Week 10. IC stands for initial condition, which is a term used in differential equations. The initial condition has a large effect on an equation's solution, and that is what we are testing for with these rankings. I've long felt that the way the College Football rankings are conducted are inherently unfair. Teams are ranked the first week, based on their reputation, name, or assumed predicted standing and subsequently ranked week to week with heavy weighting on the most recent week's performance. These rankings started teams in reverse order from my computer rankings from last year (speaking of which, I still haven't decided whether to do those. If i do, it will primarily be to check for conference strength). They proceed to go week by week using the same trends I've observed for several years in the human polls.

This week, Texas finally moves into the #1 spot after a big win over #5 Oklahoma State. Tulsa, who trailed at half time tonight and was the reason for the late rankings, slips to #2 while Alabama holds serve in the #3 spot. Penn State's victory over #9 Ohio State jumps them to fourth, while Utah, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Ball State, Oklahoma State, and Florida round out the top 10.

Entering the rankings this week are USC, fresh off a win over previously #14 Arizona; Florida State; North Carolina; Connecticut; and BYU.

Texas (2 last week)
Tulsa (1 last week)
Alabama (3)
Penn State (7)
Utah (5)
Minnesota (6)
Texas Tech (11)
Ball State (10)
Oklahoma State (5)
Florida (15)
Boise State (16)
Oklahoma (19)
Georgia (25)
Ohio State (9)
Michigan State (18)
Notre Dame (21)
South Florida (12)
Northwestern (8)
TCU (24)
USC (NR)
Florida State (21)
LSU (17)
North Carolina (NR)
Connecticut (NR)
BYU (NR)

You can start to see how these rankings are converging with the human polls with Texas taking over the #1 spot and Alabama and Penn State also claiming spots in the top 5. The cool part about these rankings is that there tends to be a lot of jumping around to correct itself. It is very easy to shoot up quickly when there are teams who are playing over their heads ranked highly.

Final Elias Projections - NL 2B/3B/SS

2008-10-25T09:54:00.002-04:00

Name	Type	Score
Chase Utley	A	92.411
David Wright	A	89.560
Chipper Jones	A	86.264
Jimmy Rollins	A	85.714
Troy Tulowitzki	A	82.967
Aramis Ramirez	A	82.418
Troy Glaus	A	80.769
Hanley Ramirez	A	80.769
Orlando Hudson	A	80.357
Jose Reyes	A	80.220
Brandon Phillips	A	79.911
Garrett Atkins	A	79.670
Miguel Tejada	A	76.374
Freddy Sanchez	A	74.107
Ryan Zimmerman	A	73.077
Dan Uggla	A	72.321
Mark DeRosa	A	71.429
Kelly Johnson	A	71.429
J.J. Hardy	B	70.330
Jeff Kent	B	70.089
Casey Blake	B	69.505
Ron Belliard	B	68.750
Ty Wigginton	B	67.033
Khalil Greene	B	67.033
Jack Wilson	B	65.934
Kazuo Matsui	B	62.500
Yunel Escobar	B	62.088
Luis Castillo	B	61.161
Ryan Theriot	B	60.714
Mark Loretta	B	60.491
Stephen Drew	B	60.440
Mike Fontenot	B	59.375
Tadahito Iguchi	B	59.375
Edwin Encarnacion	B	59.341
Cristian Guzman		59.066
Pedro Feliz		58.242
Jeff Keppinger		57.692
Rickie Weeks		57.143
Kevin Kouzmanoff		57.143
Aaron Miles		56.473
Rafael Furcal		56.319
Ray Durham		54.911
Omar Vizquel		53.297
Felipe Lopez		52.679
Mark Reynolds		52.473
David Eckstein		50.549
Damion Easley		50.446
Greg Dobbs		49.176
Martin Prado		47.802
Jorge Cantu		46.154
Blake DeWitt		45.604
Geoff Blum		44.780
Anderson Hernandez		43.750
Alex Gonzalez		39.560
Cesar Izturis		39.011
Craig Counsell		38.462
Russell Branyan		37.363
Clint Barmes		37.054
Augie Ojeda		37.054
Edgar Gonzalez		36.161
Chris Gomez		35.714
Luis Rodriguez		35.440
Adam Kennedy		35.268
Jeff Baker		34.821
Ruben Gotay		33.036
Emmanuel Burriss		31.319
Chris Burke		31.027
Kevin Frandsen		30.804
Wes Helms		30.769
Ian Stewart		29.670
Jose Castillo		29.670
Ronny Cedeno		27.009
Eric Bruntlett		26.923
Chin-lung Hu		24.725
Alberto Gonzalez		24.451
Tony Abreu		21.978
Angel Berroa		21.429
Omar Quintanilla		20.536
Andy LaRoche		20.330
Pete Orr		16.758
Eugenio Velez		15.848
Luis Rivas		14.835
Sean Kazmar		13.462
Ivan Ochoa		9.341
David Newhan		6.250
Emilio Bonifacio		6.027
Ryan Rohlinger		0.275

Final Elias Projections - NL Shortstops

2008-10-25T09:53:00.000-04:00

Name	TotalScore
Jimmy Rollins	85.714
Troy Tulowitzki	82.967
Hanley Ramirez	80.769
Jose Reyes	80.220
Miguel Tejada	76.374
J.J. Hardy	70.330
Khalil Greene	67.033
Jack Wilson	65.934
Yunel Escobar	62.088
Ryan Theriot	60.714
Stephen Drew	60.440
Cristian Guzman	59.066
Jeff Keppinger	57.692
Rafael Furcal	56.319
Omar Vizquel	53.297
David Eckstein	50.549
Alex Gonzalez	39.560
Cesar Izturis	39.011
Luis Rodriguez	35.440
Emmanuel Burriss	31.319
Eric Bruntlett	26.923
Chin-lung Hu	24.725
Alberto Gonzalez	24.451
Angel Berroa	21.429
Luis Rivas	14.835
Sean Kazmar	13.462
Ivan Ochoa	9.341

Final Elias Projections - NL Third Basemen

2008-10-25T09:52:00.000-04:00

Name	TotalScore
David Wright	89.560
Chipper Jones	86.264
Aramis Ramirez	82.418
Troy Glaus	80.769
Garrett Atkins	79.670
Ryan Zimmerman	73.077
Casey Blake	69.505
Ty Wigginton	67.033
Edwin Encarnacion	59.341
Pedro Feliz	58.242
Kevin Kouzmanoff	57.143
Mark Reynolds	52.473
Greg Dobbs	49.176
Martin Prado	47.802
Jorge Cantu	46.154
Blake DeWitt	45.604
Geoff Blum	44.780
Craig Counsell	38.462
Russell Branyan	37.363
Chris Gomez	35.714
Wes Helms	30.769
Ian Stewart	29.670
Jose Castillo	29.670
Tony Abreu	21.978
Andy LaRoche	20.330
Pete Orr	16.758
Ryan Rohlinger	0.275