Monday, March 31, 2008

Postgame Thoughts

The bullpen is going to get a lot of blame for this one. I'm not so sure that's justified. Jason Grilli came in with the tying run on third and nobody out. While he did give up a hit, to expect him to hold onto the lead is a bit extreme.

Rating the Relievers by Win Probability Added:
Jones +14.9%
Seay +11.4%
Lopez -6.3%
Grilli -7.4%
Bautista -13.3%

Bobby Seay was wasted today in my opinion. If you are going to use him against the punchless Gathright, you may as well keep him in there to face a guy in Grudzelanek who doesn't do much better against lefties and finally Alex Gordon, who can't hit lefties. On top of that Seay is a superior pitcher to Aquilino Lopez. I thought he should have stayed in the game, and I would be thinking that even if Lopez didn't give up the hit.

The first inning "error" by Miguel Cabrera further shows why the error statistic is a joke. Cabrera bare-handed the ball and threw the ball well to first, where Carlos Guillen was improperly stretching into the baseline and dropped the ball. It was clearly a result of lack of experience at first base for Guillen, and not an error on Cabrera.

Speaking of that lack of experience, i noticed two plays where Guillen got tangled up with the runner. I have my doubts that moving to first base will save his knees. That didn't help those doubts.

The Tigers' half of the 11th inning is a great example of why the sacrifice bunt is a poor strategy. Like it or not, batters strike out. Based on play by play data, a team will win 46.2% of the time down one run in the bottom of the 11th with a runner on second and nobody out. With a runner on third and one out, the team's win probability drops to 42.9%. It's a small drop, but it clearly wasn't the right move. The runner was already in scoring position, and you may as well give your team two chances to get the game-winning hit than take away a chance and rely on contact.

Brandon Inge's throw to get the out at the plate was one of the best I have ever seen from an outfielder. That doesn't change the fact that Teahen got in ahead of the tag.

In the ninth inning, Tony Pena tried to get time after Todd Jones started his delivery. I want to applaud Tim Welke for not granting him time, leading him to look foolish on the strikeout. Thank you for actually enforcing that rule.

Opponent Preview - Kansas City Royals

After the Tigers graduated to contender status, the Royals became the division door mats. It does appear as if they are turning a corner after approaching respectability last season. Here's a look at a probable lineup the Tigers will be facing this week.

L-David DeJesus CF
R-Mark Grudzelanek 2B
L-Alex Gordon 3B
R-Jose Guillen RF
R-Billy Butler DH
L-Mark Teahen LF
R-John Buck C
L-Ross Gload 1B
R-Tony Pena SS

The lineup has potential. I really like the chances of Gordon and Butler breaking out. David DeJesus and Mark Teahen are looking to rebound from down years last season. Jose Guillen was supposed to be suspended for his HGH and steroid purchases, but that got pushed back for the moment. Tony Pena is more of a defensive asset, as he's not really much of a threat with the bat. While Gload bats left-handed, he does hit better against southpaws. If any of the lefties are going to be exposed by facing Bobby Seay late in the game, it will likely be one of the others. Now to the bench:

R-Miguel Olivo C
L-Matt Tupman C
S-Alberto Callaspo IF
R-Esteban German IF/OF
L-Joey Gathright OF

Miguel Olivo is solid for a backup catcher. I don't really see the point in carrying a third catcher, especially one as mediocre as Tupman. Callaspo was once thought to have potential, but has struggled significantly with the bat the last two seasons in Arizona. Joey Gathright can run with the best of them, and their best bench player is undoubtedly German, who may start game 2 against Kenny Rogers as he can neutralize a lefty and play pretty much anywhere. Now we shift to the starting pitchers:

R-Gil Meche
R-Brian Bannister
R-Zach Grienke

Meche's contract looks significantly better than it did this time last year. His 3.27 ERA against the Tigers has me somewhat worried. Bannister had his way with the Tigers last year, and we'll see if his studying continues to pay off. Grienke is a popular sleeper, but struggled against the Tigers last season.

R-Joaquim Soria
L-Jimmy Gobble
R-Leo Nunez
L-Ron Mahay
R-Yasuhiko Yabuta
R-Ramon Ramirez

Soria had a great season in the Royals' pen last season, and should be a nice closer again this season. Jimmy Gobble and Ron Mahay are solid lefties to have in the pen. Nunez and Ramirez are big arms with big question marks (sound familiar?). Yabuta is the wild card and could either be a flop or a big time arm for them.

Overall, this is an improved team, but the Tigers should still win this series.

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Keys to the Season - Inactive Players

Here's a quick look at all of the inactive players on the Tigers' roster.

Francisco Cruceta (26): The plan was to see what we got in Cruceta this Spring. The Visa problems have put his season in question. Watch to see what happens if or when he is able to enter the question. The opportunity he gets will likely be a function of how desperate the Tigers are for bullpen help at the time. Cruceta is on the restricted list right now, meaning he has not had to clear waivers yet.

Fernando Rodney (31):
Like Nate Robertson, Rodney is frequently called "young" by outsiders who equate "young" with "I haven't really heard of him until recently." The shoulder problems have continued, and I am starting to wonder if this is something more serious than merely tendinitis. If Rodney can return with a clean bill of health around May, it will be a pleasant surprise. In the case of shoulder injuries, no news is probably bad news.

Jordan Tata (26): Tata's hand injury masks the fact that he simply could not find the strike zone this spring and had shoulder problems. The Tigers left him on the Major League DL to save an option season, which probably means that the shoulder could be a long term concern. If the time off from the hand injury saves his shoulder and he can show he can pitch well in Toledo, only then can Tata be counted on to help the team.

Joel Zumaya (23):
I'm very interested in Zumaya's recovery. It's such a rare injury, that there's not much out there to suggest how his recovery will go and if he will be able to be the pitcher he was in 2006. I have my doubts.

Vance Wilson (35): Still recovering from Tommy John Surgery, and apparently doing better. Barring another injury, there will be a roster crunch upon his return. It's sad to say, but if Brandon Inge takes to being a backup catcher, the return of Vance Wilson may hurt more than it helps.

Curtis Granderson (27): He had a great season last year, and this year's will get off to a delayed start. The thing to watch for early on will be the return from a broken finger in the cold weather. Just because he'll be back, it doesn't mean that he'll be 100%.

National League Preview

And now to the National League:

East Division

1. New York Mets : This is a tough division to call. After collapsing down the stretch, the Mets were just a game back and added Johan Santana at pretty much no cost to their Major League roster. The problem with the Mets is the injury bug, which has come out swinging in Spring Training. They really don't have the depth to handle a large amount of injuries to their position players. If all goes well, they are the favorites in the National League, but I'm not sure that it will.

2. Philadelphia Phillies: Last season's divisional champs will be in it again. They've got most of the cast returning, and figure to get a bit more stability out of the rotation, although I doubt Kyle Kendrick can repeat his role as an above average innings eater. If injuries continue to strike the Mets, this becomes the Phillies' division.

3. Atlanta Braves: Like the Mariners and Blue Jays, these guys seem to be a popular pick, and I'm not quite sure why. Yes, a full year of Teixeira should be a boost to the rotation and young stars like McCann and Francoeur stand to take step forward. I have serious doubts about the glaring hole in center field, where Mark Kotsay will attempt to step in before inevitable back problems take their tole. The likes of Brandon Jones and Josh Anderson don't instill much confidence either. I'm also not nearly as high on Yunel Escobar as many. He seemed to have extreme luck on balls in play last season, and had an inordinate amount of at bats against left-handed pitchers. As an everyday player, the .279/.340/.399 line projected by PECOTA seems about right, and is well below what is implied by many pundits.

4. Washington Nationals: They've done a fine job reloading their system in the past couple of years, but still are a couple of years away from elite status. The pitching looks pretty bad right now, and frankly with a new, less cavernous park, it may actually be exposed this year.

5. Florida Marlins: A team that doesn't want to win won't win. It's as simple as that. Here's a team trotting Mark Hendrickson out as it's opening day starter. Jorge Cantu, Alfredo Amezaga, and Mike Rabelo figure to be everyday players.

Central Division

1. Milwaukee Brewers: A team with a solid young core is a year older, has deeper pitching, and has addressed their two biggest defensive holes. This team has the highest upside of any in the division and the depth to deal with injuries. A full year of Gallardo (after he returns from the knee injury) and Braun will be a big help. Manny Parra should also go a long way in bolstering the rotation, and the bullpen has plenty of options in case any of them fail.

2. Chicago Cubs: The defending champs are getting picked a lot for a reason completely unrelated to how good of a team they actually could be. Apparently because they won the World Series 100 years ago, that somehow means they will win it this year. While that's an incredibly stupid reason to pick a team, they appear to be a solid team. Fukudome and Geovany Soto figure to bolster the lineup, while the rotation seems to have stayed pat. Can Carlos Zambrano avoid the injury bug again? Can Rich Hill and Ted Lilly repeat stellar seasons? The Cubs should be a quality team this year. I just think the Brewers will be better, but the Cubs should do enough to grab the Wild Card.

3. Cincinnati Reds: There's a big drop-off between the Cubs and Reds. The Reds have a ton of young talent getting ready to bloom, with Joey Votto stepping in at first base, Johnny Cueto joining the rotation, and the likely continued improvement of Edwin Encarnacion. Look for Jay Bruce to be a key component of this team down the stretch as they fight for .500.

4. St. Louis Cardinals: Things went south quickly for the Cardinals last year, and the trend appears to continue, as the neglected farm system has provided them with an empty pipeline of talent. That's not completely fair, as stud Colby Rasmus appears ready to burst onto the scene this year. The pitching looks desolate after Adam Wainright, and the team appears ready to waste at bats on the likes of Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy. If this Albert Pujols elbow injury is anything that requires him to miss a lot of time, things could get ugly, although last year's off-the-field ugliness is tough to beat.

5. Houston Astros: A complete overhaul of the team probably won't be enough, as new GM Ed Wade was incredibly busy this offseason running his new team in circles. It's hard to see much improvement with the Astros this season, and the farm system is bone dry. Perhaps they could sneak up to third place if Miguel Tejada returns to his old self and Hunter Pence takes another step forward, while somebody in the back of the rotation takes a step forward. A lot would have to go right for that to happen though.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Not much improvement in the Steel City appears likely this season. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzellany already took their steps forward. What the Pirates need is some top flight talent coming through the system. Does anybody else think that Littlefield wasted his pick on Daniel Moscos and acquired Matt Morris as sort of a goodbye present, knowing he was likely to be let go after the season?

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: This one is close. The Diamondbacks profile similar to the Mariners, in that they were a team who was outscored last season despite the winning record and went out and grabbed an ace. The main difference is the young core in the Arizona lineup that should improve this season. The likes of Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Chris Young all should take big steps forward this year. Also, the bullpen appears to be just as deep and strong as last season, even without incumbent closer Jose Valverde.

2. Colorado Rockies: After an amazing run last season, I've got the Rockies returning to earth a bit. You have to like a lot of the young talent, but Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales appear to be question marks at this point. The Rockies should contend this season, but may need to get hot again in September to make some noise.

3. San Diego Padres: I know that this is starting to look like last season's division results. Between injuries and demotions, the Padres have some holes in their lineup to start the season, and that may be just enough to keep them from catching Arizona. The pitching is overrated in that massive park. They should be in the race down the stretch.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have a ton of talent, but a General Manager intent on blocking that talent. If Juan Pierre gets less than 200 at bats, it could mean the difference between fourth place and the division title. This projection takes them at their word that Pierre will be the starting left fielder. Look for Clayton Kershaw to come up for the second half of the season and provide a spark similar to the one that led the Twins to the 2006 division title.

5. San Francisco Giants: Yuck. That's all you can say when looking at the lineup. Brian Sabean is at the top of my list of GM's to get the Ax. Even with a rotation including studs in Cain and Lincecum, and underrated Kevin Correia, and and overrated and overpaid Barry Zito, this team should lose 100+ games this year, especially with the added disadvantage of the unbalanced schedule.

American League Preview

It's an annual rite, but one that I find fun to look back on at the end of the season. I've heard a lot of projections over the past week or so, and wanted to put mine in ink before the season starts so I can brag come October. Starting East to West and with the American league, here goes:

American League East:

1. New York Yankees For the first time in a while, the Yankees are getting overlooked. Perhaps it's because the Red Sox won fairly easily last season and won the World Series, but a lot went right for that team. The fact of the matter is that the Yankees did win 94 games last season, including a 56-28 mark the last three months of the season. That's significant because they weren't fighting constant pitching injuries during that time period, and the team they had down the stretch was much more representative of the team they have now. The team figures to have much improved pitching staff just from the notion of pure depth. Instead of having to rely on Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano, the Yankees have youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Joba Chamberlain as a sixth starter doesn't seem to bad either.


2. Boston Red Sox They are the popular pick for the division title, but I don't see it. Jason Varitek is a year older, Mike Lowell can't stay great forever, and Jacoby Ellsbury is overrated (.426 career minor league slugging percentage translates to ~.370). A lot went right for Boston last season, including a very healthy pitching staff for much of the season. We are seeing already with Beckett and Schilling going down that they may actually have to scramble to find starting pitchers this season, something they didn't have to do last year.

3. Tampa Bay Rays Yeah, I may be driving this bandwagon, but there is a lot to like on this team. The defense figures to be much improved, which should in turn help the young pitching staff. The farm system is bulging with talent ready to graduate to the big leagues. I would expect a season similar to the Rockies last season when young talent bolsters the team to a second half surge. This team is no longer a joke, and will prove to be a team to be reckoned with.

4. Toronto Blue Jays Sometimes those in the media really out-think themselves. I've heard several people suggest the Jays are headed for a Wild Card run. I don't see it. I don't see any position where they are significantly better than they were last season, and I don't see the depth to deal with the likely injuries. Yes, Dustin Mcgowan is likely to take another step forward, but Shawn Marcum's flyball tendencies will lead him to taking a step back. Scott Rolen is a gimp, and David Eckstein isn't anywhere near what his reputation would lead one to believe. This team will be a tremendous disappointment.

5. Baltimore Orioles Rebuilding and proud of it. They have gaping holes at shortstop and the back end of the rotation, but winning this year clearly isn't the goal. It's great for them that they have decided to tear it all down. Running veterans out there and shooting for .500 simply doesn't get you anywhere.


American League Central:

1. Cleveland Indians Simply bulletin board material. As scary as it is, I felt they underperformed in a lot of places last season. Josh Barfield was a drain on the lineup, one that even an average performance from Asdrubal Cabrera would plug significantly. If they can straighten out the corner outfield spots, watch out. The pitching, on the other hand, is likely to take a step back. Fausto Carmona looks to regress significantly between the low strikeouts and the innings jump. Rafael Betancourt's career year is unlikely to repeat.

2. Detroit Tigers Miguel Cabrera was a huge pickup, as was Edgar Renteria, but there are some problems here. The bullpen seems to be a problem, but you never really know how that is going to shake out. The big problem for the Tigers is that Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez had career years that are unlikely to be repeated. If they are, this projection is wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if their regressions to the mean are merely offset by the contributions by Cabrera and Renteria. I also have serious doubts that the rotation can stay intact for much of the season. I'm trying to be biased, but I don't see a division title this year.

3. Chicago White Sox Made enough improvements filling last season's glaring holes to improve to around .500. Contrary to Kenny Williams' assertions, the Tigers should have no problems keeping up with them even after the acquisition of Miguel Cabrera. Linebrink will prove to be a tremendous waste of money, one that will hamper the team

4. Minnesota Losing Johan will hurt a lot. The offense still has serious question marks, as does the rotation. Francisco Liriano could save the team from last place, but if it takes him much past mid may to return, you could pencil Kansas City into the 4th spot. Delmon Young will be one to watch this year. He really showed a lot of warning signs last season with his plate discipline. If he doesn't take a step forward, time will be running out on him to become a star.

5. Kansas City I expect big things from Butler and Gordon as they mature another year. One guy I'm really interested in watching is Brian Bannister because of the interesting combination of a possible fluke season in 2007 and surprising intelligence. Zach Grienke is another guy who could re-emerge as a top starter this season. The Royals may need another infusion of talent to join the elite ranks. I've got Kansas City just a game or two behind Minnesota. If enough breaks their way, they could push for .500.

American League West:

1. Los Angeles Angels: This is a bit odd to see the Angels leading the division with their rotation anchors starting the season on the DL, but this division doesn't figure to be particularly strong. It will help their case if Lackey can return on or ahead of schedule, but Kelvim Escobar is out for the season. I expect a bounce back season from Ervin Santana, but am a bit skeptical of Jon Garland and Joe Saunders. In the bullpen, Scott Shields appears to be a significant loss if his injury is serious. Offensively, the team has depth at almost every position and can handle any injury that comes their way. While Vlad Guerrero is the only true star the Angels will field, they will rarely have a hole in their lineup due to that depth.

2. Oakland Athletics: The Mariners seem to be the popular pick here, but I'll take Oakland. There's a lot to like about this Oakland team. Most notably, Rich Harden appears to finally be healthy. When he is healthy, the man can flat out pitch. I'm assuming at least 150 quality innings out of Harden, innings that will certainly provide them with a few victories. I'm also partial to teams with burgeoning young talent. The likes of Daric Barton, Carlos Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, and others could step in and give this team a boost that may not be needed to make some noise in a suddenly weak division.

3. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners won 88 games last year, tied with the Tigers and finished a strong second place in the West. Many pundits have them contending for the division and wild card. I disagree. The team did pick up Erik Bedard in the offseason, unloading Adam Jones in the process. The problem is that they were outscored last year. They should have only won about 80 games. I don't see any offensive position where they are likely to improve, and short of Jeff Clement and the overrated Wladamir Balentien, I don't see any depth that will help them through injuries. The bullpen is likely to take a large step back. Even with the addition of Bedard, this is an 80-win team at best. You could make a case they'll still finish above Oakland, but pound for pound, they are similar teams in talent. If somebody says Seattle is a team on the rise, they probably don't know what they are talking about.

4. Texas Rangers: The Rangers completely reloaded at the trade deadline last season, as they went full bore into their rebuilding process. I will contend that they are still a couple of years away. There aren't many pitchers there that inspire much confidence that they will be able to keep runs off the board. There is a ton of talent there, and a reasonably intelligent guy running the show. They should be back by 2010.

I'll get the National League tommorow.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Erie's Roster, Part of West Michigan's Roster and trying to decipher the rest

The Erie Times has reported the last 26 players in camp with the Erie Seawolves.

SP:
Danny Christensen*
Jon Connolly*
Luke French*
Ben Fritz*
Andrew Kown*

RP:
Casey Fien*
Brett Jensen*
Freddy Dolsi*
Anthony Tomey
Danny Zell*
Josh Rainwater
Juan Cedeno*
Marcelo Perez

C:
Max St. Pierre
Dusty Ryan

1B:
Ryan Roberson*

2B:
William Rhymes*

3B:
Kody Kirkland*

SS:
Danny Worth*

IF:
Max Leon
Nick McIntyre*

OF:
Wilkin Ramirez*
Diek Scram*
Freddy Guzman*
Jeff Frazier*
Pedro Cotto

It seems to me that Cotto and Perez would be the odd men out unless Ramirez hasn't recovered from his injury. I got 19/24 players correct, good for 79%. Where did I go wrong, and what else can we figure out?

The two relievers I missed on were Anthony Tomey (Toledo) and Josh Rainwater (Lakeland). In their places, I had Matt Rusch and Brendan Wise. Rusch seemed to earn a spot to Toledo, but with the addition of Aaron Fultz there is an extra reliever in Toledo. Perhaps there is an injury, or perhaps Blaine Neal isn't 100% ready for the season as he signed late. We can just flip Wise and Rainwater in the projections.

I got the catchers wrong, but it's pretty easy to figure out from here. They must have felt Ryan was ready for the jump to AA, meaning Kunkel may end up in Lakeland or cut. The flipping of Trzesniak and St. Pierre is pretty insignificant in the long run.

I had Scott Sizemore in Erie based on the strong spring with the club. I was wrong. It appears they want to give William Rhymes one more shot at proving he belongs. Max Leon was a fine utility man in Lakeland last year and moves up one more level. I also am taking credit for the Cotto/Ramirez roster spot. Had I known Ramirez would recover so quickly from his injury, I'd have cut Cotto. There is a possibility that there is room for Cotto in Lakeland, though. I have Casper Wells in that outfield, and he was reported to be in West Michigan's lineup. Also, Luis Arlet to Lakeland is a big stretch. Speaking of West Michigan, here's what the Grand Rapids papers are reporting to be the lineup in yesterday's game.

Kyle Peter RF
Mark McBratney LF
Justin Henry 2B
Casper Wells CF
Cory Middleton DH
Audy Ciriaco SS
Jordan Newton C
Joe Tucker 3B

Manny Miguelez P

I had projected Peter, McBratney, Henry, Middleton, Ciriaco, and Newton to the Caps. I had Wells and Tucker headed to Lakeland with Miguelez staying back for Extended Spring Training. The most glaring omission of that report is the lack of a firstbaseman. While that would be a bold strategy, I'm betting it was either Ron Bourquin or Chris Carlson. It's also interesting that Jordon Newton was starting over Devin Thomas. I'm assuming that Thomas will get a majority of the starts there over the course of the season.

I'll post more information as it's posted. Typically, we get advance notice of Toledo, Erie, and West Michigan's roster. Not putting any pressure on them, but I'm hoping the fact that the Flying Tigers have a blog now means that we'll get that roster before opening day.

Fultz Signed

In the first of what could be many reclamation projects for the bullpen, the Tigers have signed lefty Aaron Fultz to a minor league deal. He'll be in Toledo, and if he can show what he did in his time in Cleveland last season and in Philadelphia the two years prior, he could be a valuable addition to a starving bullpen.

Also, reports of the Erie and West Michigan rosters are starting to trickle in. I'll probably do rundowns of each minor league roster this week similar to the one I did with the Tigers' roster today.

Keys to the Season- 25 man roster

It appears as if Jim Leyland has finalized the roster, with Yorman Bazardo and Aquilino Lopez taking the last two spots in the bullpen and Clete Thomas indeed making the team as a reserve outfielder. Here's some keys to the season for each player on the team.

Justin Verlander (25): Like all pitchers, the key will be to stay healthy and take yet another step forward. Verlander appears to be a possible favorite for the Cy Young Award this season. With Dan Haren and Johan Santana gone to the National League and John Lackey injured, Verlander is one of the names mentioned to be in contention for the award. Overall, it's hard to expect regression unless an injury crops up. Verlander should be the Tigers' ace for years to come.

Kenny Rogers (43): He needs to prove that last year wasn't the end. The blood clot was unfortunate, but the constant elbow problems after returning suggest that The Gambler may not have another season in him. If he does, another 2006 season from Rogers will be great. If not, you may be hearing the name Virgil Vasquez or Yorman Bazardo every fifth day. Either way, Rogers showed great loyalty to the organization this off-season, firing Scott Boras when Boras shopped him to other teams. Between that and his tutelage of younger pitchers, I wonder if Kenny will be in the organization in some fashion after he retires.

Jeremy Bonderman (25): Hopefully his problems from last year were merely tendinitis and not the start of something more troubling. I've said it before, but it will be important to make sure his velocity is up in the mid 90's, and the slider returns to its "Bugs Bunny" status. Will this be the year Bonderman finally develops a change-up? In addition to being an additional pitch for hitters to think about, the change-up also imposes less tress upon an elbow than a slider. It's win-win if that finally works out.

Dontrelle Willis (26): People who don't know as much about baseball as they think will claim that Willis was the big part of the Marlins deal. It will be interesting to see how much all of the negatives of pitching in Florida the past two seasons hurt him. Will he pitch better with an above average defense behind him? Will he feed off of a much more enthusiastic crowd? Will he pitch better away from the sweltering humidity? Or is Dontrelle Willis simply a mediocre pitcher hiding an injury? If anybody is the key to the team's season, this is the guy. The wide variation of what the Tigers could get out of the D-Train could be the difference in a stable pitching staff versus a repeat of last season.

Nate Robertson (30): A solid stabilizing force in the rotation, Robertson is what he is: an average pitcher who can straight up eat innings. Like Mike Maroth before him, he needs to be able to eat innings in order to remain of value, so keeping him healthy will be a priority. On a completely unrelated note, I heard one commentator refer to Dontrelle Willis as a veteran and Nate Robertson as a young gun. Clearly, that is far from true.

Todd Jones (40): Most players don't get to retire on their own terms. What I mean by that is players will often decline to the point where they are no longer worth keeping around while still under contract. While I hope that's not the case, Todd Jones is at the age and has the skill set of somebody on the verge of a collapse. The arm strength issues from earlier this spring need to stay away. If the Roller Coaster can stay in service for one more season, it will be huge for a bullpen that can't afford to have another piece taken from it.

Denny Bautista (27): It will be easy to dismiss Bautista because of his lack of success in the past. Right now, though, he's the hot hand. If that hot hand can find the strike zone, the Tigers may have found something here. Remember, Fernando Rodney was a struggling flame thrower with control problems until he finally broke out at age 28. Bautista is 27 right now. It's not too late.

Bobby Seay (29): An unsung hero from last season, the key will again be to keep Seay's role as close to facing exclusively lefties as possible. With no Byrdak to help him, Leyland will need to do his best to pick his spots with Seay, who will be a valuable weapon against the likes of Hafner, Mauer, Morneau, and Thome.

Jason Grilli (31): Grilli really came on towards the end of last season, but still will feel the wrath of fans as he was Mr Hyde at home and Dr. Jekkyl away from Comerica. There's still a chance that he can be the dependable arm this bullpen needs. There's also still a chance he gets the ball in high pressure spots when it should be going to somebody else. Hopefully if he struggles this year, the Tigers aren't afraid to cut bait and try another arm in the bullpen.

Zach Miner (26): It seems like Miner is in the bullpen for good. He'll need to stay away from some of the ugly performances he had last season. The 3.02 ERA is a bit misleading, as his peripherals suggest he should have been somewhere in the 4-5 range. Could he be the guy who steps up in the absense of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya?

Aquilino Lopez (32): Lopez was the beneficiary of Tim Byrdak's struggles as is the last guy to make the bullpen. Jim Leyland has made no secret that he wants another lefty, and Dombrowski is seemingly trying hard to find another bullpen arm. Lopez will probably be the one sacrificed if/when that occurs. Overall, I'd expect low-leverage roles for Lopez, who will need to pitch pretty well this season to be a big part of the plans. Note that he turns 33 in April, and is not 27 going on 28 as The Baseball Cube says.

Yorman Bazardo (23): I'm as high on Yorman Bazardo as anybody else, but it does appear that he will need some sort of an out pitch to be a high leverage reliever. I'm betting the Tigers leave him in a long relief role so he remains stretched out. He's probably the proverbial sixth starter right now.

Ivan Rodriguez (36): Is he a new man, determined to improve his plate discipline and regain his defensive dominance? Or is Pudge going to be another year older? We'll find out, but the fact that this could be his last contract year could play in the 2008 Tigers' favor.

Carlos Guillen (32): In Will Carroll's Team Health Report on the Tigers (subscribers only), he came to the conclusion that moving to first base won't do much to help his knee problem. That will be something to watch. Guillen also hit just .267/.320/.427 after the All Star Break last season. Whether it was a result of fatigue in the knees or just simple decline is hard to tell. He's got four more years left on his contract, and it will be important for him to hit like he did the first 3.5 years of his time in Detroit.

Placido Polanco (32): Depending on who rates him, Polanco will either be overrated or underrated. He's a .300 hitter with a 1.000 fielding percentage, but doesn't hit for too much power or walk much. Anybody who watched the extra inning rain delay game against the Yankees knows that the 1.000 fielding percentage is somewhat tainted anyhow. Polanco's a solid performer who will need to remain as such as he approaches his mid 30's.

Edgar Renteria (32): Renteria hit over .330 last season, but the .372 BABIP is unsustainable. The key will be for him to be a solid performer at the plate and just as importantly in the field. Keep an eye on Danny Worth and Cale Iorg this year. If either or both of them emerge and Renteria struggles, I doubt the Tigers will want to pick up that $13M option.

Miguel Cabrera (24): Cabrera can hit, and will hit. The question will be if he can field well enough to keep at third base. There's no longer the question of how long he will be a Tiger, as he will be donning the Olde English D through 2015.

Ramon Santiago (28): Billfer contends that his defense is overrated. I will tend to agree, but having somebody on the bench who can play shortstop capably is nice to have. Hopefully Santiago will be nowhere near the regular lineup if Renteria or Polanco goes down for a long term injury. Keep an eye on Michael Hollimon's recovery, as he should be back around early June. If he can dominate Toledo, Santiago's roster spot becomes a bit more perilous.

Jacque Jones (32): The Cubs are paying most of his salary, so the Tigers aren't on the hook for that much here. The key for Jones will be that he can provide superb defense while having his power return. There's not much use for .330/.400 corner outfielders in the league these days, and I can think of at least three guys who would love to have his playing time. He absolutely must hit for power to stay more useful than Inge, Thames, and Raburn.

Brandon Inge (30): There hasn't been a more talked about player this spring. Inge's desire to play third every day was well known, but the Tigers weren't able to find a spot for him. His ability to fill in capably anywhere on the is valuable, as shown already during Curtis Granderson's injury.

Magglio Ordonez (34): Had a great season last year, but how often to players hit .360 two years in a row? Ordonez will be a solid contributor this year, but the Tigers will have to make up the inevitable loss in his production somewhere else.

Gary Sheffield (39): I'm a bit more worried about Sheff's shoulder than most. His swing probably generates more stress on the shoulder than anybody out there, and I could see a scenario where he reaggrivates the injury and the Tigers lose out on his production. It's still hard to believe that Sheffield was leading the team in steals for much of the year before Curtis Granderson overtook him at the end of the season.

Ryan Raburn (26): He doesn't play them all well, but Ryan Raburn could play just about every position if needed. It will be interesting to see if the catching experiment sticks (I doubt it does). Raburn is a very useful player, as he can fill in for Polanco, Jones, Granderson, Ordonez, and Sheffield, and he can hit pretty well.

Marcus Thames (31): Jacque Jones' platoon partner has tremendous value as a bench player. He's become a bit more redundant with Inge and Raburn also on the bench. The Mets seen truly interested in Thames, as they now have a terrible bench and nobody to back up a decrepit Carlos Delgado. The Tigers, desperate for relief help, won't and shouldn't give him up for anything less than Aaron Heilman.

Clete Thomas (24): It's a thrill for him, but Thomas is probably only in the plans as long as Curtis Granderson can't swing a bat with the broken finger. He'll be back to Toledo when that happens and it will be very important for him to put up a solid season there if he wants to earn a role on next year's team. Perhaps the addition of Thomas to the roster was merely to prevent Miguel Cabrera from being the youngest active position player on the team. I have no way to support that theory, so take me at my word.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Randor Bierd Update

One thing I have been assuming throughout all of the roster projections is that Randor Bierd will make the Orioles' roster. It appears as if that is the case. For those worried about losing him, 1) don't be, and 2) he still has to stick on the roster all season long. Granted, he's going to have to pitch pretty poorly and stay healthy for the Orioles not to keep him around. They are a rebuilding team and can afford to spend a roster spot or two on projects.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Looks like Clete has made the team

Danny Knobler is reporting that Freddy Guzman is on waivers and Clete Thomas appears to have made the team as a backup outfielder. This is probably a wise move, as there is no real cumulative difference between the skills of Guzman and Thomas. Guzman is a great baserunner and possesses great range, while Thomas has a bit more pop in his bat and a rocket arm. The big difference may be the fact that Guzman has to clear waivers, something that may actually be in Thomas' favor. That seems counterintuitive, but this roster spot is merely temporary and the recipient of this spot is likely to head down to the minors upon Curtis Granderson's return. It is easier to pass a player through waivers at the end of March, when other teams are doing the same as opposed to the middle of April. The Tigers would probably have a better chance of keeping Guzman exposing him now as opposed to when Granderson returns. I could have some egg on my face if Guzman is claimed today, but I contend it's no big loss.

This has a couple of effects on Monday's already outdated roster projections. Thomas goes from Erie to Detroit, Guzman from Detroit to Toledo, and Matt Joyce from Toledo to Erie.

The Tim Byrdak release also creates somewhat of a domino effect. Barring an acquisition, Byrdak's spot will likely to go Aquilino Lopez. I will also move Jeremy Johnson into Toledo's bullpen, given the fact that he has seen time with the big club over the past couple of weeks.

Update: 5:20 p.m. ET:
Freddy Guzman is headed to Erie, according to multiple sources. This means the prior projection of Joyce to Toledo appears to be correct. The Tigers appear that they want to keep prospects from getting blocked. Perhaps Timo Perez goes to Erie once Clete Thomas is sent down?

Also, Tigstown is reporting Eleazar Aponte, Chris Homer, and Collin Mahoney were released. I had Aponte on a roster, and will adjust the projections accordingly. The most significant of the announcements in that release would have to be former first round pick Kyle Sleeth retiring. He simply did not recover from his injuries. I wish him the best of luck in the future.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Roster Projections - March 24

Before the projections, I didn't get a chance to log on to deal with the news of the weekend.

Miguel Cabrera is a Tiger for the next eight years, after signing a $152,000,000 deal. This locks him up through his prime years. If he sticks at third, he will likely be the greatest Tigers third baseman of all time during that time.

Curtis Granderson got hit by a pitch and broke his finger. He's already been placed on the DL in case of a quick return, but the prognosis is roughly three weeks. Based on yesterday's lineup, it seems like Edgar Renteria will move to the leadoff spot and Brandon Inge will play in center. No word yet who gets the roster spot. I would imagine this means Freddy Guzman cracks the roster, as it will be tough to pass a guy having the Spring he's had through waivers. Still, I don't think he'll be any more than Nook II and should be the first to go if there are no injuries before Granderson's return. The beautiful thing about baseball is that you can switch positions during the game. A backup centerfielder can cover catcher if the centerfielder can catch.

Tigs Town is reporting the Tigers released Ryan Seawell, Mark Haske, Miguel Linares, and Jorge Patino.

Edited Thursday March 27, 5:30 pm ET

Detroit:
SP:
Jeremy Bonderman
Nate Robertson
Kenny Rogers
Justin Verlander
Dontrelle Willis

RP:
Todd Jones
Bobby Seay
Zach Miner
Jason Grilli
Yorman Bazardo
Denny Bautista
Aquilino Lopez

C:
Ivan Rodriguez

IF:
Carlos Guillen
Placido Polanco
Edgar Renteria
Miguel Cabrera
Brandon Inge
Ramon Santiago

OF:
Jacque Jones
Clete Thomas
Magglio Ordonez
Gary Sheffield
Marcus Thames
Ryan Raburn

DL:
Curtis Granderson
Fernando Rodney
Jordan Tata
Vance Wilson
Joel Zumaya

Toledo
SP:
Armando Galarraga-R
Chris Lambert-R
Macay McBride-L
Virgil Vasquez-R
Eddie Bonine-R

RP:
Francis Beltran-R
Preston Larrison-R
Jeremy Johnson-R
Anastacio Martinez-R
Blaine Neal-R
Aaron Fultz-L
Ian Ostlund-L

C:
Dane Sardinha
Nick Trzesniak

1B-Jeff Larish
SS/UT-Erick Almonte
3B/4C-Mike Hessman
UT-Derek Wathan
UT-Caonabo Cosme
UT-Henry Mateo

OF:
LF-Timo Perez
OF-Matt Joyce
RF-Brent Clevlen
OF/DH-Jackson Melian

DL:
Andrew Graham
Michael Hollimon
Clay Rapada

Erie:
SP:
Ben Fritz-R
Luke French-L
Andrew Kown-R
Jon Connolly-L
Danny Christensen-L

RP:
Brett Jensen-R
Juan Cedeno-L
Casey Fien-R
Matt Rusch-R
Danny Zell-L
Anthony Tomey-R
Josh Rainwater-R

C:
Max St. Pierre
Dusty Ryan

1B-Ryan Roberson
2B-William Rhymes
3B-Kody Kirkland
SS-Danny Worth
IF-Max Leon
IF-Nick McIntyre

OF:
LF-Wilkin Ramirez
CF-Freddy Guzman
RF-Deik Scram
OF-Jeff Frazier

DL:
Brent Dlugach
P.J. Finigan
Jeff Gerbe

Lakeland
Angel Castro-R
Jonah Nickerson-R
Rick Porcello-R
Duane Below-L
Luis Marte-R

RP:
Freddy Dolsi-R
Derek Witt-R
Ed Clelland-L
Gabriel Benitez-R
Matt O'Brien-R
Nick Martin-L
Brendan Wise-R

C:
James Skelton
Jeff Kunkel

1B-Ryan Strieby
2B-Scott Sizemore
3B-Santo De Leon
SS-Cale Iorg
UT-Louis Ott
UT-Shawn Roof
OF-Jeramy Laster
OF-Justin Justice
OF-Brennan Boesch
OF-Brandon Timm

DL:
Guillermo Moscoso-R

West Michigan
SP:
Ramon Garcia-L
Manny Miguelez-L
Alfredo Figaro-R
Jon Kibler-L
Lauren Gagnier-R

RP:
Noah Krol-R
Rudy Darrow-R
Paul Nardozzi-R
Wilton Garcia-R
Santo Mieses-R
Kelvin Cedano-R
Andrew Hess-R

C:
Devin Thomas
Jordan Newton

1B-Chris Carlson
2B-Justin Henry
SS-Audy Ciriaco
3B-Ron Bourquin
UT-Joe Tucker
CF-Kyle Peter
RF-Kody Kaiser
OF-Casper Wells
OF-Cory Middleton
OF-Marc McBratney

Restricted List:
Francisco Cruceta

Already Cut:
Eleazar Aponte
Paul Hammond
Mark Haske
Chris Homer
Miguel Linares
Craig Maddox
Collin Mahoney
Chris Maples
Orber Moreno
Phil Napolitan
Jorge Patino
Jason Perry
Kris Rochelle
Orlando Rodriguez
Ryan Seawell
Kyle Sleeth (Ret)
Michael Sullivan

Projected Cuts:
Mike Bertram
Adrian Casanova
Eric Cricton
Angel Flores
Luis Gil
Eric Harryman
Derek Lehrman
Marcelo Perez
Zach Piccola
Matt Righter
Adriano Santos
Jay Sborz

EST:
Luis Arlet
Erik Averill
Mark Brackman
Joe Bowen
Dario Carvajal
Pedro Cotto
Casey Crosby
Sean Finefrock
Santo Franco
Aaron Fuhrman
Charlie Furbush
Brandon Harrigan
Brandon Hamilton
Matt Hoffman
Brandon Johnson
Wade Lamont
Justin Miller
Hayden Parrott
Orlando Perdomo
Gary Perinar
Luke Putkonen
Carlos Ramirez
Londell Taylor
Roger Tomas
D'Andrea Vaughn
Brayan Villareal
Chris White
Richard Zumaya

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

What to do with Cruceta once the season starts?

There is a lot of talk about what to do with Francisco Cruceta as soon as the season starts. Clearly, even if he got into the country right now, he probably wouldn't be able to pitch right away. What can the Tigers do in this case? Cruceta is out of options and can't be sent to the minor leagues without going through waivers.

Enter, the restricted list. The Collective Bargaining Agreement states the restricted list is for players "either failing to report to his Club or failing to contract with it." The most recent Tiger to be placed on the restricted list was Neifi Perez, when he was suspended last season. In a more relevant case, Wil Ledezma got stuck in Venezuela during the All Star Break last summer while with the Braves. He had infamously damaged his visa and passport while doing his laundry. During that time, the Braves freed up a roster spot by placing him on the restricted list.

So long as he is out of the country, Francisco Cruceta likely can be on the restricted list and does not have to be exposed to waivers.

edit: Before typing this, I didn't see that Jason Beck had reported this yesterday.

More Transactions and Injuries

As has been reported in several places, the Tigers had their second round of "cuts" yesterday. Virgil Vasquez, thought to be a candidate for the team's long relief role, was optioned to Toledo, as was Brent Clevlen. Freddy Dolsi, Chris Lambert, and Preston Larrison all made great impressions in camp, but were reassigned to Minor League Camp yesterday. It will be interesting how quickly those impressions are forgotten if they struggle in their minor league assignments. Also reassigned were catchers Nick Trzesniak and Max St. Pierre, both unlikely to make the team, and infielders Scott Sizemore and Michael Hollimon. I'll have more on Michael Hollimon later.

According to Baseball America's transaction page, the Tigers signed two pitchers to Minor League deals. Blaine Neal, 30, is a right-handed reliever who came up in the Florida system before bouncing around the past few years. He hasn't been effective in the Majors since 2002, so it's hard to get excited about him. Neal will likely fill into the Toledo bullpen in the event of some injuries. The other player brought in was 28 year-old Nick Martin, who hasn't been in organized baseball since 2004. He throws with his left hand, though, so he may grab a lower level bullpen spot.

The Tigers also announced Vance Wilson, Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, and Jordan Tata will be placed on the disabled list. Some will wonder why Tata is going on the disabled list instead of being sent down, and the answer to that is that he is out of options. If the shoulder problem persists and he needs to miss the whole season, the Tigers will be able to send him down to Toledo next year if needed. The news doesn't sound good on Fernando Rodney, who hasn't progressed through his shoulder problems. The further he goes on without progressing, the more I will be inclined to think this is more than just tendinitis.

The Michael Hollimon injury was a devastating one. For a guy who, with a great season in AAA this season, could have forced his way into a bench role a la Ryan Raburn by midseason, being out for much of this season will hurt. Hollimon also had the potential to be a credible backup in the event of a Renteria or Polanco injury. The team is now stuck with Ramon Santiago in that event. Yeah, not good.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Bracket Projection

I wanted to post my pre-selection projections. With Georgia winning, these projections are final. I'm curious how they stack up.

#1 seeds:
1.) North Carolina (East)
2.) UCLA (West)
3.) Memphis (South)
4.) Texas (Midwest)

East vs. Midwest and West vs. South in the Final Four

East Region
Raleigh, NC
1 North Carolina vs. 16 Mount St. Mary's/Coppin State
8 Kent State vs. 9 Texas A&M

Tampa, FL
4 Pittsburgh vs. 13 George Mason
5 Butler vs. 12 Arizona State

Little Rock, AR
3 Texas vs. 14 Cal State Fullerton
6 USC vs. 11 Virginia Tech

Omaha, NE
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 Belmont
7 UNLV vs. 10 Mississippi State

Midwest Region
Omaha, NE
1 Kansas vs. 16 American
8 Davidson vs. 9 Gonzaga

Denver, CO
4 Drake vs. 13 Oral Roberts
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 St. Josephs

Anaheim, CA
3 Stanford vs. 14 Portland State
6 Connecticut vs. 11 Temple

Birmingham, AL
2 Tennessee vs. 15 UMBC
7 Indiana vs. 10 Baylor

West Region
Anaheim, CA
1 UCLA vs. 16 UT-Arlington
8 BYU vs. 9 Kansas State

Tampa, FL
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 San Diego
5 Xavier vs. 12 Western Kentucky

Washington, DC
3 Clemson vs. 14 Cornell
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Kentucky

Tampa, FL
2 Georgetown vs. 15 Sienna
7 Marquette vs. 10 Arizona

South Region
Little Rock, AR
1 Memphis vs. 16 Mississippi Valley State
8 West Virginia vs. 9 Miami

Denver, CO
4 Washington State vs. 13 Boise State
5 Purdue vs. 12 Georgia

Washington, DC
3 Louisville vs. 14 Winthrop
6 Arkansas vs. 11 Ohio State

Raleigh, NC
2 Duke vs. 15 Austin Peay
7 Oklahoma vs. 10 St. Mary's

Friday, March 14, 2008

Trade Reviews - Late 80's disasters

A good amount of blame for the 12-season losing streak can be traced back to the late 1980's and early 1990's. During that time, the Tigers essentially neglected the farm and deteriorated the foundation of the organization while the big league club rode veterans to okay seasons and the occasional pennant race. Today, I wanted to look at a few of the trades made during the late 1980's that made Tigers' fans shake their heads in the 90's as the losing began. Again, I am using the techniques laid out before.

July, 1987: Acquired Doyle Alexander from Atlanta for John Smoltz



You will remember one of the key assumptions made in this model is that a player's value stops after they become a free agent. John Smoltz was a free agent after the 1996 season, stopping his value as far as this trade is concerned. This trade does show a couple of things: not all wins are created equal and there is such a thing as a win-win trade. There is no doubt that the dominating performance by Doyle Alexander in 1987 directly led to a division title. There is also no doubt that short of 1993, John Smoltz was not going to be the difference between a good team and a top team in the league. Eventually, I hope to incorporate these trades into a business model that helps quantify the effect of these wins. In the mean time, we'll call this trade a loser even with the knowledge that the Tigers miss the playoffs in '87 without Alexander.

August, 1988: Acquired Fred Lynn from Baltimore for Chris Hoiles, Robinson Garces, and Cesar Mejia


I am very curious how the Bill LaJoie/Sparky Anderson regime would stand in the information age. There were a lot of questionable moves made, and this was one of them. At the time of this deal, Hoiles was struggling and injured in AAA after blitzing through the minor leagues his first two professional seasons. This seems like a bad case of selling low. In fairness, Matt Nokes and Mike Heath seemed to have a handle on catching, and the Orioles probably wouldn't have dealt Mickey Tettleton to the Tigers had they not had Chris Hoiles on hand. Leading the division at the waiver deadline, it made sense to go after one more bat, but ultimately the decision did not pay off.

March, 1989: Acquired Mike Brumley from San Diego for Luis Salazar


This deal, if nothing else, shows some of the falacies of my rating system. The Padres are getting a lot of credit for turning Salazar into Darren Jackson, who was dealt for Derek Bell, who was part of the huge blockbuster with the Astros in which they received Steve Finley and Ken Caminiti. It's very difficult to say the Tigers would have gotten that much out of Luis Salazar, but this trade was fun to look at anyways.

Acquired Mike Heath from St. Louis for Mike Laga and Ken Hill

Tigers fans bemoaned the loss of Ken Hill throughout much of the 1990's, but the Cardinals didn't get much out of this deal either. His best seasons came between 1992 and 1997, but notice how none of them came from team he was traded to in this particular deal. Hill took so long to develop into a top pitcher that it is hard to fault the Tigers for trading him six years before he broke out, especially with the solid performances that Mike Heath put up in the late part of the 1980's. The Cardinals, too, gave up on him after the 1991 season and dealt him to Montreal for Andres Galarraga. Gallaraga was ineffective in his one season with St. Louis before moving to the thin air of Denver to resuscitate his career. This trade was not as bad as it was made out to be.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Cuts- Round 1

Rick Porcello headlines the list of players reassigned to minor league camp today, being optioned to Lakeland. One report has him starting the season there, which makes sense. Looking back, most players on the 40-man roster start the season where they are optioned in Spring Training.

Other 40-man options include Macay McBride and Armando Galarraga, both guys who were unlikely to make the team. Spare catchers Joe Bowen, James Skelton, and Dusty Ryan were also sent to minor league camp. These players were also unlikely to make the team, and will help in the minor league camp.

Invitees Jeff Larish, Jeff Gerbe, Clete Thomas, Matt Joyce, Wilkin Ramirez, and Danny Worth were all sent down. The only mildly surprising player was Jeff Larish, who has been rumored to be in the running for a Major League job should injuries strike Carlos Guillen and Gary Sheffield. Larish, though, didn't seem to make a great impression this spring.

Non-roster invitees still remaining include Francis Beltran, Freddy Dolsi, Chris Lambert, Preston Larrison, Aquilino Lopez, Dane Sardinha, Nick Trzesniak, Max St. Pierre, Scott Sizemore, Timo Perez and Michael Hollimon.

I've always felt the word cut is overused in Spring Training. The players sent down today have been re-assigned and will be in the minor leagues with a chance at making the big leagues. The real cuts happen in the minor leagues, when players leave the organization, taking with them their dreams of being a professional ball player. The players cut today still have their jobs, livelihood, and future. The true cuts are a devastating time for several young men.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Roster Projection Update - March 10

There's been a few more events occurring in the past week that have changed the projections, and the domino effect that ensues will change everything.

First, Brandon Inge has backed off of his catching statements, leading me to believe he is still in line to be the backup catcher come opening day. Jim Leyland has confirmed that Vance Wilson will not be ready for the season. I am now projecting Brandon Inge is a backup catcher/super sub, allowing Ryan Raburn to make the roster. The bench may be a bit right-handed heavy, but these guys are the most deserving players. While I am on the topic of Ryan Raburn, there's an interview with him up on Baseball Prospectus. I continue to be impressed with his attitude, especially when you consider he did everything he could last year to earn a spot.

Two injuries occurred during last Thursday's game against the Braves. Wilkin Ramirez dislocated his shoulder trying to make a shoe-string catch in left field. Jordan Tata also had problems throwing a strike, at one point throwing several pitches over the batter's head. As if that wasn't enough, he broke his hand in frustration after the outing. That link says that Tata's shoulder injury last spring was a torn labrum. That's the first I've heard of that actually being the injury, but I don't know of any labral tears being healed with rest. It's something worth keeping an eye on if he pitches this year. In the meantime, both Tata and Ramirez are starting on the disabled list.

I'm still projecting Fernando Rodney to start on the DL. The same is true of Clay Rapada, who is on roughly the same timetable as Rodney. Jeff Gerbe and Matt Joyce are also battling with tendinitis. Joyce played yesterday, so I am assuming all is good with him. I will still push him back to Erie. With the Ramirez injury and the logjam in the outfield, it seems Joyce may start the year there. We'll need to keep an eye on Gerbe. I will bump him back to Lakeland for now. He did have lingering shoulder problems last year, so this is a bit of a worry.

Francisco Cruceta is still not in the country, and I am going to assign him to Extended Spring Training. It does look like the Government is cracking down on international steroid users though.

I moved Deik Scram, Duane Below, and Brett Jensen from Lakeland to Erie as a result of all of the injuries. Given all the playing time he is getting, it wouldn't shock me to see Scott Sizemore there either. He seems to be making a good impression.

Detroit:
SP:
Jeremy Bonderman
Nate Robertson
Kenny Rogers
Justin Verlander
Dontrelle Willis

RP:
Todd Jones
Bobby Seay
Tim Byrdak
Zach Miner
Jason Grilli
Yorman Bazardo
Denny Bautista

C:
Ivan Rodriguez

IF:
Carlos Guillen
Placido Polanco
Edgar Renteria
Miguel Cabrera
Brandon Inge
Ramon Santiago

OF:
Jacque Jones
Curtis Granderson
Magglio Ordonez
Gary Sheffield
Marcus Thames
Ryan Raburn

Toledo
SP:
Armando Galarraga-R
Chris Lambert-R
Macay McBride-L
Virgil Vasquez-R
Eddie Bonine-R

RP:
Francis Beltran-R
Preston Larrison-R
Aquilino Lopez-R
Anastacio Martinez-R
Matt Rusch-R
Danny Zell-L
Danny Christensen-L

C:
Dane Sardinha
Max St. Pierre

1B-Jeff Larish
2B/SS/UT-Michael Hollimon
SS/UT-Erick Almonte
3B/4C-Mike Hessman
UT-Caonabo Cosme
UT-Henry Mateo

OF:
LF-Timo Perez
CF-Freddy Guzman
RF-Brent Clevlen
OF/DH-Jason Perry

Erie:
SP:
Ben Fritz-R
Luke French-L
Andrew Kown-R
Jon Connolly-L
Duane Below-L

RP:
Juan Cedeno-L
Brett Jensen-R
Freddy Dolsi-R
Anthony Tomey-R
Brendan Wise-R
Ian Ostlund-L

C:
Nick Trzesniak
Jeff Kunkel

1B-Ryan Roberson
2B-William Rhymes
3B-Kody Kirkland
SS-Danny Worth
IF-Mark Haske

OF:
LF-Deik Scram
CF-Clete Thomas
RF-Matt Joyce
OF/DH-Jackson Melian
1B/OF-Pedro Cotto

Lakeland
Angel Castro-R
Charlie Furbush-L
Jonah Nickerson-R
Rick Porcello-R
Guillermo Moscoso-R

RP:
Casey Fien-R
Eleazar Aponte-R
Ed Clelland-L
Josh Rainwater
Marcelo Perez-L
Gabriel Benitez-R
Jeff Gerbe-R

C:
James Skelton
Dusty Ryan

1B-Ryan Strieby
2B-Scott Sizemore
3B-Max Leon
SS-Cale Iorg
3B-Mike Bertram
UT-Joe Tucker
UT-Louis Ott
OF-Jeramy Laster
OF-Justin Justice
OF-Luis Arlet
OF-Brandon Timm

West Michigan
SP:
Mark Brackman-R
Brandon Hamilton-R
Brandon Johnson-R
Jon Kibler-L
Alfredo Figaro-R

RP:
Noah Krol-R
Eric Cricton-R
Kelvin Cedano-R
Wilton Garcia-R
Lauren Gagnier-R
Zach Piccola-L
Derek Witt-R

C:
Devin Thomas
Jordan Newton

1B-Chris Carlson
2B-Justin Henry
SS-Audy Ciriaco
3B-Ron Bourquin
UT-Roger Tomas
3B-Santo De Leon
OF-Casper Wells
CF-Kyle Peter
RF-Kody Kaiser
OF-Marc McBratney
OF-Michael Sullivan

Cut:
Luis Gil
Paul Hammond
Chris Homer
Jeremy Johnson
Collin Mahoney
Orber Moreno
Matt O'Brien
Matt Righter
Adriano Santos
Jay Sborz
Adrian Casanova
Derek Wathan
Miguel Linares
Chris Maples
Jorge Patino
Orlando Rodriguez
Cory Middleton

EST:
Dario Carvajal
Francisco Cruceta
Rudy Darrow
Sean Finefrock
Santo Franco
Aaron Fuhrman
Ramon Garcia
Matt Hoffman
Santo Mieses
Sendy Vasquez
Justin Miller
Richard Zumaya
Angel Flores
Kris Rochelle
Derek Lehrman
Craig Maddox
Brandon Harrigan
Joe Bowen
Wade Lamont
Shawn Roof
Eric Harryman
Carlos Ramirez
Hayden Parrott
Ryan Seawell
D'Andrea Vaughn
Londell Taylor
Chris White

DL:
Erik Averill
Casey Crosby
Brent Dlugach
P.J. Finigan
Andrew Graham
Paul Nardozzi
Gary Perinar
Orlando Perdomo
Luke Putkonen
Wilkin Ramirez
Clay Rapada
Fernando Rodney
Jordan Tata
Vance Wilson
Brayan Villareal
Joel Zumaya

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Lost Draft Picks

During free agent season, teams are frequently hesitant to sign players who were offered arbitration. "Type A" free agents will cost a team in the top half of the standings their first round pick in the next year's draft and will cost a team in the bottom half a second round pick. Today, I wanted to take a look back at some of the restricted free agents signed by the Tigers and what players they could have taken with the pick.

November 18, 2004: Signed relief pitcher Troy Percival
This contract cost the Tigers a second round draft pick that went to the Angels in the 2005 draft. Percival took the Tigers' closer's role and was supposed to provide stability to the team's bullpen. Forearm problems rendered him ineffective in 2005, before an elbow injury shut him down for the rest of 2005 and 2006.

Meanwhile, the Angels selected high school shortstop Ryan Mount with the draft pick. Mount has since been moved to second base and ranks as the Angels' 14th-best prospect by Baseball America. Players taken immediately after Mount include marginal prospects like Brad Corley, Travis Wood, Nolan Reimold, Mike Costanzo. Some of the top players taken later in the round include Chase Headley of the Padres, Braves shorstop Yunel Escobar, and Twins control artist Kevin Slowey. It's impossible to tell who the Tigers would have drafted with this pick, but it appears likely that they could have received somebody who contributed more than Percival.

November 13, 1998: Signed third baseman Dean Palmer
Palmer got a hefty five-year contract despite injury concerns, defensive futility, and problems getting on base. Plugged into the third base position, Palmer hit well his first two seasons, knocking in 100 runs each year to keep traditionalists happy, but his defense and plate discipline killed his overall value. Injuries rendered him useless during the last three seasons of the contract and the contract would have become a burden had it not been for the insurance included in the deal.

The Royals recieved the Tigers' second round draft pick in 1999, and used it on pitcher Brian Sanches, who never panned out for them. Other players who went right after Sanches include Rob Bowen, non-prospect James Perez, Wes Obermueller, and Brandon Phillips. Again, it was a mixed bag in the second round, and it is hard to tell who the Tigers would have gotten with the draft pick. The Palmer deal was a mistake on so many other levels, that the draft pick was likely inconsequential.

November 23, 1990: Signed outfielder Rob Deer
Rob Deer fit right in with the high power, low contact Detroit offenses of the early 90's. His batting average was always low, but he walked enough and hit for enough power to be useful. Deer was below average in '91 and '93, but hit very well in his 1992 campaign.

The Brewers received the Tigers 15th overall pick in the 1991 draft, and used it on Tyrone Hill, one of the bigger flops of the early part of that decade. Players taken immediately after Hill included Shawn Green, Eduardo Perez, career minor leaguer A.J. Shirley, Benji Gil, Pokey Reese, and juicer Allen Watson. Once again, it is impossible to tell who the Tigers would have taken with this pick, but Shawn Green would have been nice to have in a Tigers uniform across the outfield from Bobby Higginson. Rob Deer ended up not being worth the first round pick, even if the Tigers had wasted it on Tyrone Hill.

December 5, 1989: Signed utility-man Tony Phillips
Tony Phillips was an extremely underrated player in his five years with the Tigers. He spent significant time at third base before Travis Fryman's arrival, played superb second base as Lou Whitaker's platoon partner, and even played in the outfield. He posted OBP's of .361, .371, .387, .443, .409. Tony Phillips was everything you could have wanted out of a multi-positional leadoff hitter.

Oakland received the Tigers' second round draft choice in compensation for the loss of Phillips. They used it on Kansas Jayhawk Curtis Shaw, who never made the big leagues. The second round in 1990 was pretty thin, as there are several players who never made the Big Leagues, and only Bob Wickman ended up having a solid career. Tony Phillips was well worth the draft pick.

Friday, March 07, 2008

Trade Reviews

I wanted to start a series that looks back at old trades the Tigers have made. The graphs that I will show track the WARP accumulated as a result of the trade throughout the years. I made a few assumptions when doing these:
  • If a player is traded, the players recieved still count for the team. A good example of this would be that Zach Miner, who came over for Kyle Farnsworth is still counting for the Tigers in the Kyle Farnsworth for Scott Moore deal. I understand that it is unfair to assume that a player would still net the same value, but I did this for fun to look back at old trades.
  • Players are credited if they leave via free agency, netting a compensation draft pick in return.
  • A player's value is only counted until they become a free agent. Frequently, players re-sign after hitting the free agent market, but I am assuming that the player could be signed by anybody during that time. If a player re-signs before declaring free agency, I am counting their contributions during the next contract.
  • In the case of players dealt in subsequent multi-player deals, the value they contribute is the percentage of contribution to the team traded to compared to others. That sounds confusing, I'll provide an example.
Let's imagine that Dontrelle Willis provides a WARP of 10.0 in his time with the Tigers, while Miguel Cabrera has a WARP of 20.0. Let's also say that Cameron Maybin posts a 10.0 WARP and Andrew Miller a 5.0 WARP, with Mike Rabelo and Dallas Trahern each posting a WARP of 2.5. Cameron Maybin provided half of the production to the Marlins so he gets half of the 30.0 WARP accumulated by Willis and Cabrera. Miller gets credited to a quarter of the 30.0. This will make more sense as I go through examples.

The first trade I'll show is the trade in July of 2002, where Jeff Weaver was traded to the Yankees, who traded Ted Lilly, John-Ford Griffin, and Jason Arnold to Oakland, who in then dealt Franklyn German, Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman.


You can see that the Tigers appear to be the clear winners of this deal. This is, of course, before I factor in the business side of things. It's very possible that the production early on helped the Yankees and A's in their playoff runs, although that could be offset by the superb season Bonderman had in 2006.

The Yankees appeared to be the winners of the deal in 2002. Jeff Weaver posted a 2.4 WARP for the Yankees that season, but fell off the planet the next season. Ted Lilly and Erubiel Durazo (acquired for Jason Arnold) led the way in 2003, while Weaver struggled. The Tigers got contributions from all three parts of the trade that season, but it didn't do a lick of good. After 2003, Jeff Weaver was dealt for Kevin Brown, who had one solid season before injuries ended his career. Ted Lilly was dealt for Bobby Kielty, who ended up being a fourth outfielder before being released in 2007. You may wonder where Oakland got value last season. John-Ford Griffin was traded to Toronto in 2003 for Jason Perry, who was then dealt back to the Tigers last year for Jack Hannahan, who provided the production for the A's in 2007, and still will. Hannahan and Bonderman are the only assets remaining from this deal.

This next deal is rightfully regarded as Dave Dombrowski's best as Tigers General Manager. In January of 2004, the Tigers acquired Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago and the other Juan Gonzalez. While both Santiago and Gonzalez were released by Seattle to be later re-signed by the Tigers, Guillen has blossomed into a star:



The final trade I'll look at is another winner for the Tigers that happened all the way back in 1991, when they acquired Mickey Tettleton from the Orioles for Jeff Robinson.



I have accumulated the data for every trade since 1983 where the players involved combined for at least 1 WARP after the deal. If you have any trades you are curious about, please let me know and I'll post them the next time around.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Roster Projection Update - 3/4/08

Between Brandon Inge being a baby about playing catcher, Matt Mantei's abrupt retirement, Fernando Rodney's tender shoulder, the roster projections have changed a bit. I'm leaving Inge on the roster even though I think he is long gone at this point. I set forth in the initial projections I would not project any trades, and I have a hard time seeing the Tigers dump that salary. It still would send the wrong message throughout the organization to keep Inge on the roster over Raburn considering their performance and attitudes. With Raburn in Toledo, the outfield is a bit loaded. With the DH and several games, there is a way to get playing time to everybody, including starting Raburn at second base and Hollimon at shortstop.

Detroit:
SP:
Jeremy Bonderman
Nate Robertson
Kenny Rogers
Justin Verlander
Dontrelle Willis

RP:
Todd Jones
Bobby Seay
Tim Byrdak
Zach Miner
Jason Grilli
Yorman Bazardo
Denny Bautista

C:
Ivan Rodriguez
Dane Sardinha

IF:
Carlos Guillen
Placido Polanco
Edgar Renteria
Miguel Cabrera
Brandon Inge
Ramon Santiago

OF:
Jacque Jones
Curtis Granderson
Magglio Ordonez
Gary Sheffield
Marcus Thames

Toledo
SP:
Armando Galarraga
Chris Lambert
Macay McBride
Jordan Tata
Virgil Vasquez

RP:
Francis Beltran
Francisco Cruceta
Preston Larrison
Aquilino Lopez
Clay Rapada
Anastacio Martinez

C:
Nick Trzesniak
Max St. Pierre

IF:
Jeff Larish
Michael Hollimon
Erick Almonte
Mike Hessman
Henry Mateo

OF:
Timo Perez
Freddy Guzman
Ryan Raburn
Brent Clevlen
Matt Joyce
Jason Perry

Erie:
SP:
Eddie Bonine
Danny Christensen
Luke French
Ben Fritz
Andrew Kown

RP:
Juan Cedeno
Freddy Dolsi
Jeff Gerbe
Matt Rusch
Anthony Tomey
Brendan Wise
Danny Zell

C:
Dusty Ryan
Jeff Kunkel

IF:
Ryan Roberson
William Rhymes
Kody Kirkland
Danny Worth
Caonabo Cosme
Mark Haske

OF:
Wilkin Ramirez
Clete Thomas
Jackson Melian
Pedro Cotto

Lakeland
SP:
Duane Below
Angel Castro
Charlie Furbush
Jonah Nickerson
Rick Porcello

RP:
Brett Jensen
Casey Fien
Alfredo Figaro
Ed Clelland
Josh Rainwater
Marcelo Perez
Gabriel Benitez

C:
James Skelton
Jordon Newton

1B-Ryan Strieby
2B-Scott Sizemore
3B-Max Leon
SS-Cale Iorg
3B-Mike Bertram
UT-Joe Tucker
UT-Louis Ott
CF-Deik Scram
OF-Jeramy Laster
OF-Justin Justice
OF-Luis Arlet

West Michigan
SP:
Mark Brackman
Brandon Hamilton
Brandon Johnson
Jon Kibler
Guillermo Moscoso

RP:
Noah Krol
Eric Cricton
Kelvin Cedano
Eleazar Aponte
Wilton Garcia
Lauren Gagnier
Zach Piccola

C:
Devin Thomas
Joe Bowen

1B-Chris Carlson
2B-Justin Henry
SS-Audy Ciriaco
3B-Ron Bourquin
UT-Roger Tomas
3B-Santo De Leon
OF-Casper Wells
CF-Kyle Peter
RF-Kody Kaiser
OF-Marc McBratney
OF-Michael Sullivan

Cut:
Jon Connolly
Luis Gil
Paul Hammond
Chris Homer
Jeremy Johnson
Collin Mahoney
Orber Moreno
Matt O'Brien
Ian Ostlund
Matt Righter
Adriano Santos
Jay Sborz
Derek Witt
Sendy Vasquez
Adrian Casanova
Derek Wathan
Miguel Linares
Nick McIntyre
Chris Maples
Brandon Timm
Jorge Patino
Orlando Rodriguez
Cory Middleton

EST:
Dario Carvajal
Rudy Darrow
Sean Finefrock
Santo Franco
Aaron Fuhrman
Ramon Garcia
Matt Hoffman
Santo Mieses
Justin Miller
Richard Zumaya
Angel Flores
Kris Rochelle
Derek Lehrman
Craig Maddox
Brandon Harrigan
Wade Lamont
Shawn Roof
Eric Harryman
Carlos Ramirez
Hayden Parrott
Ryan Seawell
D'Andrea Vaughn
Londell Taylor
Chris White

DL:
Erik Averill
Casey Crosby
Brent Dlugach
P.J. Finigan
Andrew Graham
Paul Nardozzi
Gary Perinar
Orlando Perdomo
Luke Putkonen
Fernando Rodney
Vance Wilson
Brayan Villareal
Joel Zumaya

Jones blows 6 run lead

Todd Jones just came into a 6-0 game and blew the lead in his inning. He gave up hits to the likes of Geoff Blum, Darin Erstad, and Jose Cruz Jr before a game tying shot by J.R. Towles. It's only Spring, but this just goes to show when Todd Jones is bad, he is really bad. For those who are into counting statistics, this doesn't count as a blown save because a six-run lead is not a save situation. If save percentage meant anything to anybody, hopefully this revelation makes you rethink.

My Inge Rant

The big story of the past couple days has been Brandon Inge whining about catching, and killing the Tigers' roster flexibility in the process. Brandon Inge's selfishness is clearly running short with everybody in Detroit, and his sense of entitlement is sickening. Jim Leyland was asked about Marcus Thames and gave this response:

"Marcus Thames is one of the key components on this team," Leyland said, acknowledging that Thames obviously would like to play more. "I think he's been very professional about it. He's handled it like a pro. Hopefully, he's happy here.

"He can play on my team anytime -- anytime. I think he's a very valuable guy."

A little back-handed slap at Inge? I think so. Given the attitudes that Thames and Raburn have shown, I'd have to say it's becoming more and more likely that Brandon Inge becomes a sunk cost. He's worried so much about himself and starting at third base that he should realize he's merely the third-best right-handed option off the bench this year, and should be doing everything in his power to earn a spot on the team with his performance, not his contract. If Inge doesn't shape up, I'm thinking it may be best for the Tigers to just let him go. Stuff like this can just bring down the clubhouse, and a broken clubhouse is bound to make this potentially great team struggle. So long as a quality team can be fielded without him, the only loss is the $19 million owed. If Mike Illitch wants to win a title, I trust he'll know that cost is sunk.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Bad Idea

I just found this little blurb from Jim Hawkins' article this morning:

With the lefthanded Sabathia on the mound Saturday, Leyland batted Pudge Rodriguez leadoff, as he plans to do at times during the regular season.
I hope that's speculation. It makes no sense to bat a sub .300 OBP player in the leadoff spot, regardless of how much you are paying him. This brings me to one more gripe I had with yesterday's lineup: no Curtis Granderson. Yes, I know it's the spring and I know the games don't count, but Granderson isn't going to get any better against lefties from the bench. Yesterday was the perfect opportunity to get him practice in an attempt to fix his most glaring weakness. It would be nice to not have to platoon Granderson this year. Hopefully he gets some practice in against tough lefthanders this month.

Matt Mantei struggled a bit today, giving up two runs and walking one in his inning. It sounded like the ball was being hit pretty hard against him as well. If you ask me, he'll need to be lights out to show he's ready this year. Yorman Bazardo pitched really well in his inning, less than a week after the death of his father.

Random Thoughts

I haven't gone through the last couple Spring Training Games quite yet. I had a few things to say about those games and figured it would be useful to go through them:

Thursday: Tigers 4, Blue Jays 1
This was another great performance by the pitching staff, which has done well so far this Spring. Macay McBride allowed the only run, and it was unearned. Matt Mantei, though, walked two guys in his inning. There seems to be a lot of speculation that he could crack the bullpen, but if his control problems keep up it won't be pretty. He hasn't been able to curb his walks since 2003, his last season as an effective reliever. If he can't keep his walks below one per inning in the Spring, I don't see how he can be trusted on the big league staff.

Friday: Tigers 3, Blue Jays 1
The real story in this game was Rick Porcello's two perfect innings. The Blue Jays couldn't manage a ball out of the infield against him, and Frank Thomas couldn't manage contact against him, striking out. Caveats about spring statistics do apply, but certainly Porcello looking so strong against mostly MLB regulars is a lot better than him struggling. All the praise about his poise from the scouting reports and from Jim Leyland this spring reinforces the thought that he will move quickly. I would not be shocked to see Porcello in Lakeland to start the season. Hopefully he goes on the Verlander path, only moving up when he is blowing away the competition. Either way, this kid is special.

Saturday: Tigers 3, Indians 3
The Tigers and Indians decided to use soccer rules yesterday, deciding that it wasn't important to decide a winner. Given the objectives of Spring Training, this makes sense. Danny Worth got thrown out at the plate in the ninth inning after a James Skelton single. Clearly if Skelton wasn't so skinny, Worth would have made it home and he would have gotten an RBI. Tim Byrdak really struggled yesterday. I want to point out that he also had a breakout season in 2005 for the Orioles only to fall on his face in 2006. I have faith, though, that Clay Rapada is a suitable replacement for the second lefty role. I just want to make sure everybody is prepared for a Byrdak collapse, as it's fairly likely.

BA reported this week that Ron Bourquin is working out at first base this spring. This only moderately will adjust the projections, as I still don't see room for him to play 1B every day. The guy is no longer a prospect, though.

I went back and checked out Fernando Rodney's 2004 Spring Training, just to see the chronology that led up to his first Tommy John Surgery.
  • March 15, 2004: triceps tendonitis shut him down.
  • March 20: Felt fine after a bullpen session.
  • March 24: Another bullpen session left Rodney with some discomfort afterwards.
  • March 27: Felt better after a bullpen session.
  • April 2: Placed on the disabled list with triceps tendonitis.
  • April 7: Diagnosed with a severe sprain in his elbow ligament, but the Tigers decide to let him rehabilitate the injury.
  • April 25: After a couple of simulated games, Rodney didn't feel any better.
  • April 29: It was announced that Rodney would under go Tommy John Surgery.
I'm not posting this to give the impression that Fernando Rodney is sure to go under the knife. I'm posting it to give a typical progression of a pitcher with arm problems. A lot of serious injuries first get diagnosed as tendonitis and become serious later. Besides, that was an elbow injury. This has clearly been Fernando Rodney's shoulder that has been bothering this Spring and much of last season. The moral of this story is not to assume Fernando Rodney will return at full strength until he does.