Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Trade Analysis of Casey to the Tigers

Well as most know by now the Tigers have made a move for Sean Casey. He was previously the first baseman of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Chris Shelton was demoted to make room and the Tigers traded away AA reliever Brian Rogers. I like Brian but this wasn't a bad move for the Tigers. A 24 year old right handed reliever in AA ball with a fastball in the mid to upper 80's has little value in terms of being a big prospect for a future club.

As for the move and what it does for the team. It gives the Tigers a chance to demote the struggling Chris Shelton, who really has struggled since his red hot April. To analyze the gains for the offense completely I thought I would look at Casey's numbers this year versus Shelton after April.

Shelton after April put up the following line: 0.259/0.322/.370
Casey for the season has put up numbers similar to his career line although his slugging has dropped off : .296/.377/.408

So basically the Tigers are looking at a 55 point gain in OBP and a 38 point gain in SLG. To think about what this means for the club in more detail as far as gains in run.

I am going to assume for now that they are going to slide Casey into the 8 slot where Shelton had been batting. Using the same Lineup Analysis as I did with the Abreu move I will look at the following lineup with their current numbers plugged in and check the difference between the lineup before the trade and now:

1. Granderson
2. Polanco
3. Rodriguez
4. Ordonez
5. Guillen
6. Young
7. Monroe
8. Casey
9. Inge

Before the move the offense is analyzed with post April Shelton put up and 2005 Young numbers (.325/.471), since I believe that the split of Young/Thames will be around that. The rest of the lineup is done using the current numbers of the players, while we all know that the players get hot and cold, which will skew the numbers; I felt that it was fair for this comparison to use the same numbers for both. The offense puts up 5.104 runs per game. With Casey placed into the lineup the Tigers then see an increase to 5.201 runs per game.

Basically over the last 57 games that is a gain of around 5.5 runs. Really a minimal trade off. Of course Shelton seemed to be regressing further post all star break with a .310/.302 line.

Overall I think the move is a good one for the team in general given the fact that they gave up very little to take a risk that Casey will stay healthy (a huge question mark with him) and that Shelton will refind his swing in Toledo just in time to come back for a final push.

I think this is a decent move. Nothing to complain about and nothing to really get excited about.

As for long term I would offer Casey arbitration and hope he turns it down. I believe he will be the type of free agent that the Tigers could get arbitration from. Of course there is a risk he accepts the offer.

Other than that this is a strict rental pickup.